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by jimbobmacdoodle
Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:44 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

freezeblade wrote:Great game scum! I'm still mystified on how the RNG fucked with me and put all the scum in one of the RNG groups in my meta-snark grouping.
I genuinely did not know how to react to that when I saw it. Even though I knew it was very unlikely, I was petrified that you genuinely had a reason to believe that list when you posted it...
by jimbobmacdoodle
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:01 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar, you really should know by now that if you read me as town, I'm scum, and if you read me as scum, I'm town.
Yes and I think I finally figured out why. Can't wait for next game to test it. :D
We're going to roll scum-buddies, aren't we? Or at least, you're going to roll scum.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:15 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

That, ladies and gentlemen, is why we killed BoomFrog. LaserGuy and I basically knew he was locked in on us, and we didn't want to risk that Madge would start sheeping him, because if she had done, we would have been toast. We took a risk, knowing that both Madge and wam didn't seem to have a strong read of either of the two of us as scum, and hoping that this would mean they'd default to pushing mpolo instead. Which they eventually did.

One correction to point out from the spoilers: I have been lynched as scum. Once (not counting Trial of the Pariahs). But it was my first game way back in Draculafia. I was also vig-killed as confirmed-scum in Smalltown 2 (my second game), after tying myself in knots with a false result claim. But yeah, not since then. And yes, I have been mislynched on several occasions, though I forget which ones (I think somebody may have pointed this out).

Sabrar, you really should know by now that if you read me as town, I'm scum, and if you read me as scum, I'm town. So next game, I'll make sure to look super scummy, just so that you get really confused...!

I also want to apologise to the mods, and anybody else for my mini-rant in scum chat N4. I guess I was just getting frustrated for no good reason. And maybe over-sad about missing out on a hat-trick of perfect scum games...! My only two real gripes with the game were the incorrect wiki page leading to an unfair confirmed town, and the fruit vendor being able to give out specific fruits.

Shout outs/thoughts:

threetwoone: bad luck with accidentally spoilering yourself. Hopefully we'll see you again soon!

Vicarin: I honestly don't know if I'd have pushed you as town the way I did. Maybe next time you'll get past D1 though!

Sabrar: good job on fooling us into thinking you were PR on N1.

SDK: I always enjoy playing with you. I'm glad that plytho tunnelled you as hard as he did, and somehow carried the rest of town with him, despite me pushing against your lynch, because I think we'd have had to have NK'ed you before endgame.

freezeblade: Nice work with the double jailing of the role cop. Unfortunately, you doing so N1 was enough to convince us that you were the jailkeeper anyway, along with your soft claims.

Mark: You were definitely a bit of a victim of low content, making it easy for us to push you as scum. I would just suggest you do what you can to keep up and post reactions to things in flight, if nothing else.

plytho: We killed you because you were just so townie! We certainly didn't have a clue that you were the tracker. My only comment is that the tunnel was too much. If several people are disagreeing with you over a case, you may well not have as ironclad a case as you think you do, and should consider looking wider at your subject's posts.

BoomFrog: You got to the right team in the end! You forced us to kill you instead of confirmed town.

wam: I'm still impressed with your fruit vendor gambit. I'd figured you were likely to be fruit vendor by N2, but there were always more important targets to go for with the kill and role cop.

Madge: Yes, you were wrong with your final conclusions, but I still think you did a really good job, especially channelling bessie early on!

mpolo: I felt sorry for you in the endgame, because there clearly wasn't much you could do. I very nearly posted to say that you should just drop the meta, but my slightly selfish desire to win outweighed that desire for sportsmanship. Sorry :wink:

moody: Thank you for being a solid scum buddy. Yes, I bussed you a lot, but that was mostly opportunistic from Day 2. I think you did a good job of keeping yourself from being too linked to me or LaserGuy, so when you went, town were still confused enough.

LaserGuy: Congrats. I'm not sure I could have read you as scum if I hadn't known! My town lean on you for most of the game was pretty genuine.

Lastly, to the mods, thank you for running the game! I really enjoyed it, and the flavour was a nice variation.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:40 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

I did!

Not going to risk missing it...

Vote mpolo

Madge can hammer when she's ready. Or LaserGuy can hammer his buddy if he wants.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:19 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

wam wrote:Jimbob I agree and have been thinking about it. Worknis manic and im spending most of tomorrow driving. So my plan is madge votes when shes next on and I will vote in the morning unless she has any objection or other ideas.
Okay, fair enough. I'm around most of tomorrow, and can always drop in to hammer once you two have agreed. Or shout loudly into the void if you vote me.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:49 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Wam, Madge, it's important that you both vote, and vote on the same person, because otherwise scum can just force a No Lynch by voting it (No Lynch wins ties). Like I said, I'll follow what you do (although obviously, it won't involve voting me, but then if either of you do, LaserGuy will just pile on too, so it's moot).
by jimbobmacdoodle
Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:08 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Diemo wrote:I'll set a deadline of Saturday at 5PM GMT +1

Not that I think the day will go all the way to deadline, but this might clash with the England world cup match, if it goes on to extra time etc. Would it be possible to either bring it to no later than, say, 2.30pm, or afterwards, so no earlier than, say, 6.30pm?
by jimbobmacdoodle
Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:24 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

wam wrote:Im thinking moody but thats due to my strong town read on both laser and jimbob (at least one of which is wrong). I want to go back and look at possible links but I wont have time till tomorrow.
I assume you meant mpolo?
mpolo wrote:Vote: jimbobmacdoodle
:roll:

I'm not expecting to be quick-hammered. I'm about 99% certain mpolo is scum and he's just hoping the vote will encourage town to join him.

I don't think I've got anything else to say, and I will follow the collective decision by wam and Madge (as long as it doesn't involve voting me, since that would be bad).

Madge, wam, is there anything I can say that would make you more likely to vote either of the other two?
by jimbobmacdoodle
Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:11 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

mpolo wrote:Of course a strongman would likely not have carried out the kill on night two, as they knew that there was an even-night tracker. (Since fruit had been claimed on D2, mafia knew the exact setup at that moment.)
Hmmm... Do you think moody would have performed the kill N2? Who do you think would have done out of LaserGuy and I if not? Why?

I think it's possible that it's a crumb, I just don't think it implies town!LaserGuy. I also don't think I agree with the strategy mpolo posted. If scum role-copped freezeblade N1 (as would be implied by his death N2), then they would have known that they could strongman kill freezeblade, with no additional use for the strongman, so they effectively become a goon. If they hadn't, they might have guessed he was anyway for reasons I previously outlined.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:18 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

LaserGuy, I don't think plytho reading you as town is a breadcrumb of his N2 result. At the time, he couldn't have known that you weren't a mafia goon, or indeed any other kind of Mafia who just didn't use an action, so a no visit result doesn't suggest you are town. Similarly, a result of you visiting somebody else would be as likely to cause suspicion (because you might be the role cop) as clear you for, e.g. being the fruit vendor. It's possible plytho did one of his tunnels and missed the implications of his result though.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:05 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Madge wrote:I can't shake plythos very strong town read of laser guy. Can people please explain short and clear the problems with it?
Frankly, I didn't have any problems with it at the time, as I was pretty comfortable with LaserGuy. It's only really by PoE that I have him as scum alongside mpolo. Still, I'll go back and see what I can find.

Aside: I've decided not to bother with any more buddy-analyses, as at this point, I don't see myself changing my opinion of Madge, so LaserGuy and mpolo MUST be scum from my point of view.

Here is plytho's last read of LaserGuy:
plytho wrote:LaserGuy: as I've said before, his Vicarin vote D1 feels very townie to me. He could have easily avoided voting using the roleplay excuse or just voted another lynchable townie with a vote. Breaking the tie D1 towards the vicarin lynch is also townie as SDK is more dangerous to scum than Vicarin. (On the other hand the D2 SDK lynch may have been more likely than the D2 vicarin lynch, so that's scum motivation for that tie breaker).

LaserGuy's opening post D3 opening post is very townie, asking some really solid questions. I especially like his push against Madge.

His latest reads list is solid too.

If LaserGuy is scum he's playing a stellar game because I see nothing but town.
His final ordered list is a few posts later:
plytho wrote:Updated list:

plytho
LaserGuy
jimbob
madge
wam
mpolo
Moody
boomfrog
Mark
So, plytho has LaserGuy as towniest, from what I can tell, mostly due to two points: 1) his Vicarin D1 vote (an eighth different wagon apparently being dangerous for scum to start), and 2) His D3 opening post and solid questioning in it. I'm not sure either point can really be called definitively town - either of those could come from scum. One of the reasons starting yet another wagon is risky is that if it gains momentum, then people might naturally look at the first player to start the wagon. But, from what I remember, there was never any real suspicion on LaserGuy D2 for this, so I think that just indicates it's null. This is LaserGuy's first post D3. Let's look at those questions in a bit more detail:
LaserGuy, to Mark wrote:Now, let's talk. You voted SDK in D2 and said that was your current view. Can you explain why? Which points for scum!SDK did you like? Which points for Town!SDK did you like?

How has your view on Madge changed? You were pushing her pretty aggressively in D1, then just stopped and started voting for Vic/SDK.
These are easy questions to ask as scum, picking on a suspicious player with low content, and digging at him for more.
LaserGuy, towards wam wrote:What influenced your view that led you to believe SDK might be Town after all? Why didn't you pursue this earlier in the day? If you were concerned about this, why wouldn't you make reading SDK a priority to reread?
Again, this is a fairly obvious question to ask, given wam's apparent inconsistency on SDK.
LaserGuy, towards wam wrote:What do you think of the Mark/moody wagons at the end of the day? What's your current read on moody?
These are reasonable questions to ask. Given that moody was scum, you could certainly see this as townie, though it could just be a small attempt to distance.
LaserGuy, towards Madge wrote:It certainly sounds to me like you are saying "plytho's point is good, but SDK's defense feels fine, so it's null over all". If not, how should I be interpreting this?
This is a simple request for clarification, so pretty null to me.
LaserGuy, towards moody wrote:Okay, so at the end of D1, you had SDK up to "slightly townie". You ultimately voted for him D1 for information. Why did you go back to scumreading him D2?

...

Can you explain what you were talking about here? Okay, you were voting for him, but your vote D1 wasn't because of plytho's case.

Why didn't you include SDK in your D2 rereads? What do you think of the Mark/moody wagons at the end of the day? What's your current read on wam?
I think it's possible, given the late suspicion on moody at the end of D2, that scum decided N2 to bus moody, and so LaserGuy here is going about that here. It's also worth noting late on D3 that LaserGuy switched from voting moody to voting Mark, essentially sealing Mark's lynch.

LaserGuy is a good player, capable of asking very solid questions. I haven't looked back, but I fully believe him capable of doing so as scum, not just as town. I therefore don't think these questions should be taken as plytho did, leading him to mark him as top town.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:41 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

EVWOP: descends into wine really quickly.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:01 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Madge wrote:Any theories why they killed boomfrog? That's what interests me most at this point.
I've thought about that a bit, and realistically can't come up with a single clear answer, because it descends into some really quickly. One possibility is that you were seeming unwilling to sheep BoomFrog whilst he was alive, so scum might have felt this was the best way to convince you that I'm on their team. Then maybe they could be trying to get wam to doubt his reads, since the obvious reason to leave him alive is because scum believe he'll lynch town, so wam will reconsider his reads but then think, that's what scum want him to do, so won't etc etc. Or maybe they think I'll change my reads for some reason because BoomFrog died. Or finally, maybe mpolo and his buddy just felt that nobody was going to lynch BoomFrog any more than anybody else and just chose him at random. Conclusion: I have no idea why they didn't kill wam, as I at least could possibly have ended up voting BoomFrog, though it's probably quite unlikely.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:11 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 5

Okay, here's the first part of my buddy analysis prepared overnight (hence why it includes the BoomFrog analysis - I see no point in deleting it). I've started with links from mpolo towards other players, and will do the reverse at a later point. I realised whilst writing this up that it would make more sense to have done the moody version of this first, but never mind. That part is further below. Skip to the very last paragraph, if you want the grand conclusion.

Links from mpolo towards LaserGuy:
Spoiler:
D1. Posts 1-4: nothing relevant. [url]Post 5:[/url] LaserGuy is doing a brilliant Madge impression. Posts 6-13: nothing relevant (original deadline). Posts 14-15: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-3: nothing relevant. Post 4: Notes quiet LaserGuy and indicates he has a gut feeling on him, but not got time to track it down. Posts 5-12: nothing relevant.

D3. Posts 1-5: nothing relevant. Post 6: Scummy side of neutral. Posts 7-11: nothing relevant. Post 12: LaserGuy is in top three most suspicious. Posts 13-16: nothing relevant.

D4. Post 1: nothing relevant. Post 2: Has him in likely scum group with me and moody. Post 3-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Identifies LaserGuy in the scum team again. Post 6-8: nothing relevant. Post 9: Thinks LaserGuy scummier than me. Posts 10-12: nothing relevant.


Links from mpolo towards BoomFrog:
Spoiler:
S1. Posts 1-13: nothing relevant (original deadline). Posts 14-15: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-12: nothing relevant at all!

D3. Posts 1-5: nothing relevant. Post 6: Notes need to review BoomFrog. Post 7: nothing relevant. Post 8: Notes Mark's changing opinion on BoomFrog, and has a gut feeling BoomFrog could be linked to Mark, but notes again that he needs to reread him. Post 9: nothing relevant. Post 10: In response to a prod from me, notes again BoomFrog as a possible partner with Mark. Post 11: Starts reread of BoomFrog, but does not complete it. Feels a lot better about BoomFrog. Post 12: Feels quite townie on reread.Post 13: Feels like Mark is sheeping BoomFrog, and BoomFrog might have an air tight reason for trusting Mark. Link between them is a null link now. Posts 14-16: nothing relevant.

D4. Post 1: nothing relevant. Post 2: Thinks BoomFrog isn't scum "unless [he] really pulled the wool over wam's eyes". Posts 3-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Notes again the possibility of BoomFrog messing with us. [url]Post 6:[/url] Feels better about townie vibes from BoomFrog than scummy vibes. Posts 7-8: nothing relevant. [url]Post 9:[/url] Not 100% sure of read on BoomFrog. Post 10: Lynching scummiest from pool will hopefully give greater clarity on BoomFrog. Posts 11-12: nothing relevant.


Links from mpolo towards Madge:
Spoiler:
D1. Posts 1-7: nothing relevant. [url]Post 8:[/url] Link between freezeblade and Madge interesting. Posts 9-13: nothing relevant (original deadline). Posts 14-15: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Notes Madge's claim, highlighting setup implications. Lying!Madge would be a very high gambit, due to other PRs being able to debunk. Posts 6-7: nothing relevant. Post 8: Comfortable with Madge (unusual, as he normally reads her as scummy). Posts 9-12: nothing relevant.

D3. Posts 1-3: nothing relevant. Post 4: Reading Madge as townie, notes unusualness again. Post 5: nothing relevant. Post 6: Reading Madge as fairly townie. Posts 7-11: nothing relevant. Post 12: Madge very high town probability. Posts 13-16: nothing relevant.

D4. Post 1: Madge revealing her fruit is null tell. Post 2-3: nothing relevant. Post 4: Thinks Moody nit-picking Madge, but he's convinced of her townieness. Post 5: nothing relevant. [url]Post 6:[/url] Feels better about townie vibes from Madge than scummy vibes. [url]Post 7:[/url] Hopes Madge will get the time to look more closely. Posts 8-12: nothing relevant.


Looking at mpolo's posts, some things jump out at me. On BoomFrog, he doesn't see anything at all about BoomFrog/threetwoone the entire first two days (although at least for D1, he does have an excuse, since threetwoone didn't say anything). He then decides to link him to Mark for some reason that I don't fully follow, before changing his mind after partially re-reading BoomFrog. Most notable is how easily he accepts BoomFrog to be town, based on the fruit claiming. Unfortunately, I feel like this last point doesn't necessarily indicate a connection between the two, merely just that mpolo already knows BoomFrog's alignment, i.e. he is scum - either mpolo knows that BoomFrog is town, and doesn't critically evaluate anything that leads to that conclusion, or he is scum, in which case scum!mpolo doesn't see a reason to critically evaluate a potentially incorrect solution. I'm inclined more towards the town!BoomFrog, due to my read of him yesterday, but I could easily be swayed the other way on that one, if I can see more links when I do the analysis from the other point of view.

On Madge, he says almost nothing about her D1, and decides she is town D2, whilst noting that this is unusual for him. I find his repeating of this "Madge being townie is unusual for me" statement a little suspect. His read on Madge fluctuates randomly with no further stated justification from fairly townie to very townie at various points D3, and by D4, he never considers her as part of the scum team, despite noting Madge's fruit revelation as a null tell (implying he supposedly cares about her alignment). This seems like a plausible link, since he's not really trying to sort her, but it's not a strong one.

LaserGuy is the most likely candidate from these posts, he is shown as somewhat suspicious throughout, from D2, but with always having other players to worry about ahead of him, there's no risk that mpolo has to actually commit to him. Now that we're in endgame, the late suspicion is more or less a requirement, since he needs to distance himself from his buddies.

Right, onto the links from moody analysis:

Links from moody towards LaserGuy:
Spoiler:
D1. Post 1: Brief comment on LG playing Madge. Post 2: nothing relevant. Post 3: Early reads list with LaserGuy as insufficient data, noting RP and certainty over Sabrar OTT. Post 4: Would maybe watch LG. Post 5: Corrects comment to saying he'd track LG N1. Posts 6-7: nothing relevant. Post 8: Explains LG not scummiest, possibly as weirdness due to RP. Post 9: nothing relevant. Post 10: Responds to a question from LaserGuy about Mark. (initial D1 deadline). Post 11: nothing relevant. Post 12: Responds to another LG quetsion. Posts 13-16: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-5: nothing relevant. Post 6: Promises to look over LG tomorrow. Post 7: nothing relevant. Post 8: Rereads LaserGuy. Confused by his posting. Should be nervous about not having a good feel. Post 9: nothing relevant. Post 10: Labels LaserGuy as votable. Posts 11-13: nothing relevant.

D3. Posts 1-2: nothing relevant. Post 3: Responds to LaserGuy defensively over SDK. Post 4: Responds to LaserGuy again, explaining intended information gain. Post 5: LaserGuy is second-scummiest. Posts 6-7: nothing relevant. Post 8: Number two lynch choice is between LG and wam. Posts 9-11: nothing relevant.

D4. Posts 1-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Notes mpolo missed his having LaserGuy as votable previously. Posts 6-8: nothing relevant. Post 9: Jokes LG has started RPing as Madge again. Posts 10-11: nothing relevant.


Links from moody towards BoomFrog:
Spoiler:
D1. Posts 1-2: nothing relevant. Post 3: threetwoone nothing of any depth in early reads. Posts 4-10: nothing relevant. (initial D1 deadline). Posts 11-16: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-8: nothing relevant. Post 9: Explains why he didn't bother rereading threetwoone prior to replacement. Post 10: Labels BoomFrog as unsure/to examine. Post 11: Responds to BF on FB claiming PR. Posts 12-13: nothing relevant.

D3. Posts 1-2: nothing relevant. Post 3: Concerned BoomFrog might be being opportunistic with early vote. Post 4: nothing relevant. Post 5: BoomFrog is fourth towniest. Posts 6-11: nothing relevant.

D4. Posts 1-6: nothing relevant. Post 7: Uncomfortable that mpolo is giving up if BF is scum. Posts 8-9: nothing relevant. Post 10: Responds to BoomFrog, explaining townie read of mpolo. Post 11: Responds to BoomFrog, saying his responses are moot.


Links from moody towards Madge:
Spoiler:
D1. Post 1: nothing relevant. Post 2: Asks wam what he thinks of set including Madge. Post 3: Townie (suspicious of plytho and Mark, responses, snarky comments). Responds to a question from her. Post 4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Asks Madge how she feels about Sabrar caginess. Posts 6-10: nothing relevant. (initial D1 deadline). Post 11-14: nothing relevant. Post 15: Notes Madge desire to lynch his scummiest read. Post 16: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-2: nothing relevant. Post 3: Notes Mark's tunnelling on Madge. Post 4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Madge fruit claim interesting. Posts 6-9: nothing relevant. Post 10: Labels Madge as unsure/to examine. Posts 11-13: nothing relevant.

D3. Post 1: Project for today is to read through Madge (note - not BoomFrog). Posts 2-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Madge is 4th scummiest. Post 6: Rereads Madge. Comfortable with her (mid-range) position, but considers swapping her with wam (i.e. down). Posts 7-10: nothing relevant. Post 11: Asks Madge what we should do if Mark doesn't claim.

D4. Post 1: Non-accusation towards Madge about fruit claims being null tell. Post 2: Thinks scum!Madge could still be confused re. setup, and responds to Madge on fruit vendor claiming. Post 3: Thinks Madge suspicion of him is mild OMGUS. Posts 4-10: nothing relevant. Post 11:


Here's what jumps out to me after reading moody's comments on the three players. First, on LaserGuy, moody is very non-committal, especially D2 (where he doesn't have a good feel of him, but it's apparently enough to put him as votable). By D3, he seems to have doubts about LaserGuy, putting him as one of two possible second-choice lynch suspects. Neither of these points look that great. I do find his defensiveness around the SDK lynch information comments, directly in response to a question by LaserGuy to be less likely to come from a scum buddy, but it certainly doesn't rule out this pairing. By D4, he doesn't seem to care about LaserGuy at all, although to be fair, the same could be said about several others too, all of which is likely just a sign that he's trying to avoid linking himself to scum buddies on the final day.

On BoomFrog, moody, like mpolo, has very little to say on him or threetwoone either D1 or D2. Perhaps particularly concerning was that moody marks BoomFrog as somebody he needed to review on D2, and then never did re-review him. However, by D3, BoomFrog is in the townie-half of moody's reads list, despite him having some concerns and never analysing him. His comment regarding mpolo effectively giving up if BoomFrog is scum doesn't seem like something a scum buddy of both BoomFrog and mpolo would say.

Finally, on Madge, I just don't get a buddy vibe from moody's comments about and towards her. In particular, I don't see moody throwing vague suspicions towards Madge on D4, when there was zero likelihood of her getting lynched without them. Admittedly, there wasn't much higher likelihood with it, but still, I'd have expected more outright accusations of he wanted to distance himself from buddy!Madge.

Overall, that suggests to me, from reading moody's posts alone, BoomFrog is more likely a buddy than LaserGuy than Madge. However, other external points, such as the theoretical hard-core bussing by scum!BoomFrog seems to indicate that BoomFrog is unlikely.

Grand Conclusion: LaserGuy seems to be the most likely team-mate with moody and mpolo. I don't rule out BoomFrog from this analysis, but I think it's somewhat unlikely for other reasons (pre-post edit: and this point is moot, since BoomFrog was town). Madge is also unlikely, in my opinion, due to moody's attitude towards her throughout the game.

Vote: mpolo - I don't see anything changing my opinion on him here. Would also accept a LaserGuy lynch.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:50 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

BoomFrog wrote:At least we know that moody 100% is scum. First of 4 bullets dodged...
Four?
by jimbobmacdoodle
Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:17 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

I'm happy for somebody to hammer. I'll hold off until my morning commute tomorrow though in case anybody else has any last words.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:27 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

mpolo wrote:Are we waiting for any major promised postings? Or should we start voting now?
I'm happy once BoomFrog is done. As noted, I won't have time by deadline to do the analysis I'd like to do, but I don't think it's critical at this point, and can wait until D5.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:41 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

BoomFrog wrote:Laserguy and JimBob are both trying to keep the door open for vagueness and that is scummy at this stage of the game.
I can't speak for LaserGuy, but I don't want to put down a definitive three-person team until I've had time to properly conclude my buddy analysis of people. I haven't had the time to do that unfortunately, and don't think I will get to it before day end now (I'm out basically all of tomorrow). I am committed to mpolo and moody as the first two team members. If you put a gun to my head at this point and forced me to choose a third, it would be LaserGuy.
LaserGuy wrote:But the fact that we have a consensus lynch in LYLO gives me really weird vibes, especially since the people I know are scum are the ones jumping out in front of this.
I get what you're saying, but assuming moody is scum, I would be amazed if scum hadn't already agreed to full-on bus him today, in the hope that they can take down a town on one of the next two days. If moody is town, then he's not done a very good job of defending himself at all, and he should just self-vote to get the game over and done with (he is Vytron after all - self-voting is his thing right :lol: ?)
by jimbobmacdoodle
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:30 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Madge, do you have any thoughts on whether a BoomFrog/mpolo/moody team makes sense.

With 48 hours to go, it's probably time to start committing to who we want to vote for. I suggest underline votes:

Vote moody
by jimbobmacdoodle
Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:50 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Okay, I'm going to do updated reads of BoomFrog, Madge and LaserGuy now, to give me perhaps some better idea of who to look at for the third scum.

BoomFrog:
Spoiler:
Drives home a question on wam on paying attention. Explains he analysed both town!SDK and scum!SDK cases at the end of D2. Doesn't understand wam finding it suspicious he acted immediately, and wants wam to explain himself more. Convinced himself overnight that SDK was town. Asks wam about his moody thoughts, and shares concern about opportunism with his views and votes. Wasn't pushing freezeblade for a lynch, but wanted him to full claim. Actually wanted reactions to his insistence that freezeblade full-claim, but didn't get anything interesting. Had been seriously considering scum!Madge until plytho points out the setup confusion posts. Doesn't think she faked it. Increases plyhto townieness for pointing it out. Scum playing well - no scum slips. Mark acted scummiest, but cant afford to lynch lurkers. Thinks most people think me and plytho are townie, maybe lesser so LaserGuy. Doesn't see a 3-person scum team for Mark. Happy to vote wam, moody or mpolo. Moody is likeliest scum. Points out some things earlier evidencing pressure for freezeblade to claim and reactions. Explains why he doesn't think people would be bussing Mark. Thinks any bussing was way too early to make sense. Suggests plytho, LG and I should co-ordinate the lynch. Disagrees with mpolo - mpolo doesn't have enough scum without Mark. Hadn't taken D1 soft-claim from freezeblade seriously, and thought it was unlikely from PR!FB D2, due to potential rolecop. Timing of soft claims not good. Encourages Madge to vote. Suggests she sheep. Accepts lynching Mark is a sensible choice, from plytho's logic, but doesn't want to lynch him, partly because scummy players support that lynch.

D4. Sarcasm over Mark flip, and shows surprise over wam claim, but 80% sure he's telling the truth. Asks wam questions to confirm his claim. Follows up. Assumes wam is confirmed town after wam explains. Gave me a pass D3. And testing mpolo was useless. Doubts both me and LG scum, so moody and mpolo must be. Moody looking squirmy and prods him. Doesn't remember moody going after wam. Wants mpolo to give full scum team. Mpolo feels really townie. Suggests wam instruct Madge how to act.
Okay, first point. I don't think BoomFrog is town purely because of his reaction to wam's claim. As already noted, I think there are various ways scum!BoomFrog could have reacted the way he did, and result in me not dying. Obvious examples being a role-cop on me getting a VT result, or a rolecop on plytho meaning that he was a higher importance to kill, but I could even see scum!BoomFrog just deciding not to kill me whilst the rolecop checked me out, in favour of killing the universally-believed town player. That being said, I've had a fairly strong town reading on BoomFrog for a while now. His explanations on Freezeblade do make a lot of sense. He's anti my top two scum players (mpolo and moody) (or at least was until re-reading mpolo...), and he was willing to relinquish control of the lynch to me, confirmed-town plyhto and LaserGuy. This last point only makes sense from scum him if he was confident we'd choose town, I think. Town was indeed lynched in the end, but at that point there were still several clear options, including moody and mpolo, at least one of whom has got to be scum for this to make any sense (there is no way that scum is BoomFrog/Madge/Laserguy).

LaserGuy:
Spoiler:
Completes reads list. Puts mpolo at neutral, to be re-reviewed, because doesn't have good sense of where he is on most players. plytho town (would be very hard for him to fake his conviction on SDK). Me very solid town (authenticity). BoomFrog skeptical town lean (good pushes on various people, doesn't like BF push on freezeblade). Puts wam, Madge, moody, mpolo as scummiest. Wam/moody top choices since nobody else interested in Madge. Discusses with me possible mpolo lynch, due to PoE, and nobody suspicious is going for him. Drop off in Mark content and lack of scum reads concerning, but doesn't like that his scum reads are leaning on Mark. Likes plytho's comment about Madge setup posts. Offers to support Mark lynch with me and plytho, but then backs down as Mark lynch gives him bad vibes. Happy to move back to wam or mpolo. Trusts plytho and votes Mark.

D4. Tentatively believes Mark claim, and finding it hard to think of a way that it could be faked. Town wam implies one of BF or me probably scum by PoE. Thinks scum is me/moody/mpolo. Uncomfortable with BF still being around, but unlikely buddies with moody, and moody likely scum. Reads me looking for references to other players. Thinks there's a decent chance I'm buddies with mpolo. Suggests scum had given up on moody by D3. Unsure about moody/me buddies due to aggressive bussing since D2. Doesn't think BF/me would hard-town read each other. BoomFrog/me/mpolo worst case scenario. Doesn't see BoomFrog bussing moody as likely since D2. Thinks me and mpolo are locked scum. Disagrees that my actions similar to BoomFrog re. moody. Wants to know why mpolo finds him scummy, given lack of detailed read of him.
LaserGuy has picked up more or less where he left off in my last read of him, where I put him as leaning town. I've been uncertain about him for most of the game so far, with him hovering fairly near that centre line that I dislike. I think his hesitance over lynching Mark is reasonable given Mark's town flip, but it's hardly definitive, since scum knew Mark to be town. I'm not comfortable with his scum by PoE read on me, although I can understand it, since essentially, that's likely where he is going to end up on my list. I haven't looked back at earlier content from LaserGuy, to see if he had significant dealings with mpolo or moody, and I don't know if I'll get the time to do so before deadline now. I think he is a possible buddy-candidate though at this point. I think he is scummier than BoomFrog, though if it weren't for PoE, I'd probably label him town.

Madge:
Spoiler:
Thinks wam and moody acting normally, hard to find them suspicious. Moody's logic is sound. If Mark is scum, he's doing a wonderful job. Found BoomFrog's attempts to lynch FB last minute odd, but probably neutral or slightly townie. Doesn't see scum trying to do it. Doesn't like the Mark wagon. Likes plytho defending her with the setup confusion. Generally prefers voting off lurkers. Wants mpolo and BoomFrog to explain who they do see as being linked. Mark should claim. Wants to sheep plytho, won't vote Mark, so votes moody for being not Mark. Doesn't understand why LG is townie. Doesn't think slip from plytho is scum slip. Unvotes moody, to avoid early hammer.

D4. Confirms receiving pineapple from wam. Confused why moody brought up that claiming doesn't clear her as town. Reveals breadcrumb. Finding moody suspicious, not sure why. Likes the case on moody more than mpolo. Wants to sheep dead plytho. Good to vote bottom 3 (BoomFrog, moody, maybe mpolo, but unclear).
I'm not 100% certain that the setup "slip" by Madge definitely confirms her as town. I think there's a small chance that scum might have noticed the inconsistency in the table/descriptions, and decided to agree later to fake something. I think it's relatively unlikely, but I certainly think it's possible. I like one or two of the things she's said recently, like the demand for mpolo/BoomFrog to provide links to other players. I forgive her sheeping of plytho, although if plytho is wrong, this would look bad for Madge, since scum!Madge could easily decide to sheep wrong!plytho, knowing that doing so would inevitably lead to a win for her. I had Madge as strongly townie early in the game, gradually sliding backwards over time though. I think without the setup confusion, I'd be inclined to put her as scummiest of her, LaserGuy and BoomFrog, but I think the setup ping is enough to push her behind LaserGuy.

That makes my current ordered list something like this:

Town
wam
BoomFrog
Madge
LaserGuy
mpolo
moody
Scum

I'm not willing to vote anybody outside moody and mpolo. I need to review links from them towards the other three to further refine my third scum candidate, but I don't think that will happen before day end, due to time.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Tue Jun 26, 2018 1:27 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

I don't agree that there are three confirmed town. I think there is one confirmed (wam), one who had a major town-slip that I'm still considering (Madge), and one who, from what I think you're saying, is town because he didn't kill me N3 (BoomFrog). I'm very much uncertain about that last point. It's on my to-do list to review. I certainly don't think it guarantees town!BoomFrog (I think somebody else pointed out that scum might have role-copped plytho).
by jimbobmacdoodle
Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:30 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

EVWOP to fix quote:
Madge wrote:
plytho wrote:Updated list:

plytho
LaserGuy
jimbob
madge
wam
mpolo
Moody
boomfrog
Mark


Based on this Sheeping town, I'm good to vote any of the bottom 3. I target moody the most personally.
Madge, I assume you're referring to mpolo/moody/BoomFrog, since Mark is dead?
by jimbobmacdoodle
Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:28 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Madge wrote:plytho
LaserGuy
jimbob
madge
wam
mpolo
Moody
boomfrog
Mark


Based on this Sheeping town, I'm good to vote any of the bottom 3. I target moody the most personally.[/quote]I assume you're referring to mpolo/moody/BoomFrog, since Mark is dead?
by jimbobmacdoodle
Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:20 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

moody7277 wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@moody - why haven't you reviewed your mpolo read? It was made way back on D2.


a. I had several other people to review
b. The degree to which I had read him as town (up next to plytho just about) was why he was low priority since then


Given that it's LYLO, I am inferring from you that b. should no longer should apply. Correct?
Yes, that's basically it, particularly as you explicitly have labelled him as town D4 in a way that suggested to me that you considered him as nearly as townie as wam. I also am not convinced by your reasoning for labelling him town beforehand, and since I need town!you to not be misreading mpolo, I want to see if you're able to back it up any more. By the way, you actually had him as townier than plytho at one point, somewhat contradicting your above statement.

@LaserGuy - why do you rule out BoomFrog/moody and not me/moody, given I've been similar to BoomFrog in my stance on moody since D2?
by jimbobmacdoodle
Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:05 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Right, time to pick off where I left off yesterday. I reviewed the potential mpolo/moody team from mpolo's posts. Here's the same treatment from moody's posts:
Spoiler:
D1. Posts 1-2: nothing relevant. Post 3: Labels mpolo as slightly townie in a reads list, commenting on his setup spec. Posts 4-5: nothing relevant. Post 6: Says he'd watch either mpolo or Sabrar. Posts 7-16: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-3: nothing relevant. Post 4: Rereads mpolo. Notes early neutral content, difference in opinion on Vicarin to him. Suggests a point in favour of mpolo for voting SDK over town!Vicarin. Labels him townie for working in reading various players. Couldn't guess scum buddies at this point for him. Posts 5-9: nothing relevant. Post 10: Places mpolo as non-votable (along with me and plytho). Posts 11-13: nothing relevant.

D3. Posts 1-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Has mpolo as highest town in ordered list (with a gap to anybody else). Post 6-11: nothing relevant.

D4: Posts 1-3: nothing relevant. Post 4: Has mpolo as town, referencing his earlier post-by-post reread. Post 5: nothing relevant.
So, moody basically ignores mpolo for much of D1, apart from labelling him as slightly townie in his early reads list. He then, on D2, rereads him on a post-by-post basis, like with other players, and comes to a firm town conclusion on him (due to being open and reading lots of other players). And after that, his only comments on mpolo are to label him as hard town, both in his ordered list D3 (top townie), and D4 (along with wam). Oddly, in the D4 comment, his read is because of his earlier post-by-post re-read of mpolo, yet that was fairly early D2. From what I remember, a lot of mpolo's more objectionable content came after this point, yet moody appears to be ignoring it. If I'd had similar feelings of mpolo (i.e. continuous townie read), I'd be saying that I don't think scum!moody would so consistently in labelling his buddy town, yet I think scum!moody would have been much more likely to pick up on some of the recent scummier play coming from mpolo to leave his options open.

Summary: I don't see scum!moody continuously town-reading town!mpolo like he does into D4. That implies either moody is town (very unlikely, in my opinion), or the two of them are both scum.

Re-read of mpolo recent content, picking up from my D3 reads list.
Spoiler:
Rereads moody, gives him general townie feel and puts him in the middle of the pack. Gives varying townie reads to Madge, wam, moody, plytho, me; labels BoomFrog and Mark as needing review; LaserGuy as somewhere scummy side of neutral. Dislikes no strong scummy reads, inclined to vote Mark, but needs re-read. Re-reads Mark, and looks worse in isolation, although noting lots of newbie vibe, and votes him. Gut feeling of BoomFrog linked with him. Scum are lynching talkative townies. Partial re-read of BoomFrog - looks better in isolation. At a loss for possible buddies for Mark. Backs down and unvotes Mark. Convinced of plytho's towniness, and also labels Madge and BoomFrog as townie, with Mark feeling scummy, but seeming townie... Suspicious are wam/LaserGuy/me/moody, with me as most townie. Thinks if Mark is town, likely PR. Still thinks possible scum candidate, but doesn't know who he is linked to. Plytho argument for lynching Mark compelling. Mark claiming VT negates possible town reading him. Flip-flopping on Mark. Won't hammer him. Also willing to vote moody or wam by PoE. No movement means no vote.

D4. Plytho read correct, wam incorrect. Madge revealing fruit null tell. Based on wam's comments me/moody/LG scum group, and promises to look at who he thinks is scummiest. Thinks moody surest thing. Re-reads moody from start of D3. Notes pressure on townies. Also concerned by town list, as possible buddying. Votes him. Then unvotes. Notes BoomFrog might be messing with us. Defends himself over moody not being on the radar D1. Gets quite defensive after being labelled scum by wam. Acknowledges poor scum hunting. Feeling better about townie vibes from wam, Madge, BoomFrog. Not going to claim.
Nothing in mpolo's recent play makes me feel any better about him in isolation on re-read. I had him as fourth in my list, with Mark, wam and moody, so second scummiest behind moody still feels about right, pending re-reads of everybody else.

moody:
Spoiler:
Rereads me after being prodded by me. Notes my early consistency on FB and Mark, and clear path on wam. Second-choice for scum would be Laserguy or wam. Says he's been open about his motivations. Claims vanilla townie. Questions Madge on what to do if Mark does not claim.

D4. Slightly weird non-accusation on Madge. Madge breadcrumb cleared wam. Madge confusion over which PR scum had could be genuine even as scum. Continues not understanding Madge comments. Thinks her suspicion is mild OMGUS. wam town because of uncontested fruit vendor claim. Mpolo solid town read from earlier post-by-post anaylsis. Finds mpolo concerning due to early vote, but thinks more likely mistaken townie.
I'm just not impressed with moody's recent content. He's not said a huge amount, and his town-tunnel (deliberate or otherwise) on mpolo seems to be a bit ridiculous. I don't understand some of his interactions with Madge at the start of D4, and he never addressed this comment and question I made earlier about it:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:What exactly are you getting at here then moody? I don't think even Madge claimed that this clears her as town.
My main concern though is the mpolo read, which just isn't justifiable at this late stage, given it's based on an early D2 analysis of mpolo.

@moody - why haven't you reviewed your mpolo read? It was made way back on D2.

Conclusion: I feel like moody is pretty certain to be scum. By implication, mpolo is probably too, though I'm more certain on moody. I'd be prepared to vote for either of them, depending on where consensus takes us.

Over the next couple of days, I'm going to try to see who of BoomFrog, Madge and LaserGuy are the likeliest buddy with them.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:23 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Looking at things from mpolo's posts. Spoiler contains all references to moody that might be relevant:
Spoiler:
D1. Posts 1-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: no comment on moody (or a few others) from a post commenting on a range of players. Posts 6-13: nothing relevant up to first deadline. Posts 14-15: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-3: nothing relevant. Post 4: Notes moody's need to reread in list of D2 contents. Notes that LaserGuy and moody are being really quiet, and mentions a gut feeling on LaserGuy, but nothing else about moody. Posts 5-12: nothing relevant.

D3. Posts 1-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Notes that he hasn't done a full re-read of moody, and says he will as a priority. Post 6: Reread of moody. Notes slight inconsistencies, but gets a general townie feeling about him (puts him at townie side of neutral in overall list). Posts 7-11: nothing relevant. Post 12: Puts him alongside me, LaserGuy and wam as scummiest, after reviewing other players. Posts 13-14: nothing relevant. Post 15: Shortly before deadline, says happy to vote moody or wam by PoE, but prefers Mark (but hammer, so no vote). Post 16: Doesn't place or move vote.

D4. Post 1: nothing relevant. Post 2: Scum team must be me/LaserGuy/moody because of wam's claim, unless BoomFrog really clever. Post 3: Thinks moody surest thing. Post 4: Rereads moody again from D3. Notes his suspicion of people generally viewed as townie and swinging opinions. Didn't see anything that convinced him that moody isn't scum. Votes moody.
It's very noteworthy that mpolo mentioned moody 0 times D1, and barely mentions him at all on D2. D3 he finally comments on moody, doing a re-read of him, but deciding that he's slightly townie at that point ("townie side of neutral"). However, he jumps up to a list of 4 scummy players later in the day, after suddenly realising that he didn't have a viable scum team. Late on, he does offer up moody as a possibility instead of Mark, but at that point, I doubt there'd have been much budging of the wagon. He follows up on his late D3 comments, after wam's claim, by sitting on a team including moody, and evaluating moody again, finding nothing convincing him of his townieness. My feeling here is that the early content is more telling than the later content, by which time scum!mpolo might know that he needs to distance himself from moody who was starting to get some flak. My only concern is the vote on moody. I'm uncertain whether scum would so quickly vote their buddy at LYLO, but on the other hand, mpolo might have seen the writing on the wall, based on people's opinions of moody late D3, and gone into full-on bus mode now, to try to get as many townie points as possible.

Summary: lack of any attempt to read moody D1 and D2, and initial townie read on him D3, before swinging around on him as pressure began to build does imply a moody-mpolo team as a possibility, from mpolo's perspective.

I'm going to get an early bed tonight, so I'll finish this off tomorrow (i.e. do moody's side). If the game hasn't ended by then...
by jimbobmacdoodle
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:39 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

mpolo wrote:Vote: moody7277
@mpolo - why are you so quick with that vote? We don't even have a deadline posted yet. You do realise it's LYLO, right?

I've got maybe an hour to type these thoughts up, but probably less. The rest will have to come tomorrow. As I've said before, my working theory was wam/mpolo/moody as the scum team, but wam is essentially confirmed town at this point, barring any weird late counter-claim, so that torpedoes that team. This means that (at least) one of Madge/LaserGuy/BoomFrog is scum, all of whom I've had as townie reads for a while now. I doubt more than one is, although I will have to consider this some more at some point, especially if mpolo/moody don't look set to be a team. The strong town read by moody on mpolo clashes with the vote by mpolo on him harshly.

@moody - what is your opinion of mpolo, given he's now voting you?

Also, mpolo voting means that we could be in for a quick hammer, if mpolo and moody are both town. It's the weekend, and so far nobody else has posted, so I think it's too early to draw definitive conclusions. However, mpolo voting fairly early does not look good in my books, given that most players are still considering their opinions. It looks to me like a planned bus - get a vote in early to make it clear that mpolo couldn't possibly be buddies with scum!moody.

I'm going to start on that buddy analysis now. I'll be looking for links between mpolo and moody (or things that imply no link between them).
by jimbobmacdoodle
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:49 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Okay, wam's fruit vendor claim seems to check out. Apart from the fact that it would have to be a fairly audacious false claim, I skimmed his earlier posts to see if his play matches up with his claim. He said pretty much said nothing about the fruit vendor early on, and in one of his first posts D2(? didn't check) about it, he maybe slipped that he knew about the ability for a fruit vendor to give out specific fruit before the question was made public.

I'm not sure if I'll get any chance to post for the next 48 hours, and I certainly doubt it will be in depth analysis.

I'm going to work on the assumption that a) wam is the fruit vendor, and b) that I wasn't completely wrong in my reads and that mpolo and moody are both likely scum, with one other player. So first order of business will be to look for buddy links/non-links between them.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Fri Jun 22, 2018 12:27 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

moody7277 wrote:
Madge wrote:Confirm pineapple. I breadcrumbed in my first post yesterday, only I used the Thai word for pineapple to be mysterious. Will show and proper post when I get to a computer tomorrow.

Someone needs to see if plytho crumbed target d3


Not that this is an accusation, but you did point out (twice) that just because you definitely got a fruit and aren't lying about it doesn't mean you're not scum.
What exactly are you getting at here then moody? I don't think even Madge claimed that this clears her as town. What's your opinion on Madge's confusion surrounding the setup table versus descriptions?
by jimbobmacdoodle
Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:04 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

wam wrote:The rest of the targets I'm going to sit on in case anyone counter claims.
I'm not sure I get how this helps? I assume you followed the plan I suggested on D2?

Also, assuming you are the fruit vendor, I apologise for coming up with the plan instead of you as I imagine that would allow Madge to have known you were town otherwise. :D
by jimbobmacdoodle
Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:49 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Okay, could you claim your targets, please, and what you gave Madge.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:40 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Very well, I guess that means we're in LYLO. Plytho as the kill isn't really a surprise, but him also being our tracker is unfortunate, since it would have been useful for us to have an additional confirmed townie at this point. Also, I believe his flip definitively confirms our setup (no more messing about worrying whether Madge lied...). Contrary to perhaps popular wisdom, I'm inclined to think that it might be better for the fruit vendor to NOT claim at this point, until there is a clear statement of intention from one(?) or more people to vote them. Otherwise, if we succeed in voting scum, they'll just die tonight.

Anyway, I don't think those flips make any difference to my opinion that scum is likely {wam, moody, mpolo}, so I think I need to start doing a team analysis of them.

Just as an FYI, I am away camping with family over the weekend, so I don't know how much, if any, time I'll get to post.

@ninja-wam - I feel like you are not looking to be in a great position yourself...
by jimbobmacdoodle
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:36 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Page 16, BoomFrog votes Mark as an attempt at a non-SDK lynch, viewing him as generally scummy, but later switches to moody, along with SDK and me. Less likely to be buddy than the average person from this, but not definitive.

Hmm... by D3, I think it's pretty clear that scum might have decided to bus Mark, so I'm not sure there's much point in continuing this, but I'll see what I can manage...

plytho puts Mark in the suspicious pile, but later backs off a bit, and then back again..., before eventually voting him. wam thinks scum are lying low and promises to look at Mark again, but that hardly rules him out as suspicious. Moody labels him as an acceptable lynch target, and later votes him. mpolo labels him as an "IMPORTANT TO REVIEW" person, later pre-review saying he was inclined to vote him, before voting after the review. Later, he admits to being unsure on who his buddies are, and eventually unvotes him for this reason, although still marking him as a possible scum candidate. wam wants to lynch him mostly as a lurker, later voting him. BoomFrog throws him into the suspicious pile, but rules him out due to lack of buddies. LaserGuy, who has been viewing Mark as townie offers him up as a compromise choice, eventually voting him as "trusting plytho".

plytho's recent comments about Mark and mod-kills seems unlikely to come from a buddy of Mark.

So, I don't see plytho or Madge as Mark buddies, and moody is somewhat unlikely. That still leaves a possible wam/mpolo/Mark team, so I'm not too bothered by a Mark lynch. If he isn't scum, then I'll review the wam/mpolo/moody team.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:16 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

On page 7, moody decided to unvote, which could be an indication he was bussing, and was deliberately taking a slight risk that nobody else would join in before another wagon formed. Until now, nobody else has viewed Mark as scummy, apart from me. And lots have him as townie.

Madge reviews her opinion on Mark a bit later, but still rules him as scummy. I really don't see her as a possible Mark-buddy.

By page 12, moody has completely swung away from his suspicions of Mark, now labelling him as town. By page 14, Mark is back to votable in his opinion. Not sure about that...

There's a bit of discussion on Mark on page 15 between plytho and BoomFrog as a possible SDK buddy, but nothing that really marks him as a possible buddy, given that scum would know SDK not to be scum.

That's it up to page 15 of solid suspicions or pushes on Mark, away from my own posts. Will try to get the remaining pages done before mods come online.

---

By the way, fruit vendor should probably still follow the plan I proposed on D2.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:01 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

First four pages reviewing references to Mark, shows no strong pushes, except for from Madge (with a vote, admitted as her D1 tunnel), and to a lesser extent, moody, who had him as one of his top two scummiest. He follows it up later with a vote, which makes moody/Mark less likely as a scum team, since there weren't any clear wagons at this point. I'm not familiar with scum!moody strategy and whether he is someone who will bus a buddy early, without a good reason to.

Will continue posting what I can until deadline comes.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:54 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

@Mark - I recommend you take a quick look back at the reads lists posted by people like myself and LaserGuy, where we post our thoughts on different players, including moody. I'm not going to link them, for time's sake, but they aren't too many pages back.

Basic summary from the general feel on the thread is that he's not been all that committal on anybody.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:48 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Analysis of Mark buddies, looking at Mark's posts first:

Madge - very unlikely given his and Madge's early discussion. I doubt the two of them would have staged things the way they did. I also think scum!bessie-Madge would not have tunnelled one of their own buddies. There's similar pressure and suspicion on her throughout the game.

analyses a few people (me, mpolo, moody, LaserGuy), at Sabrar's requests, but only really finds moody suspicious, and there's not a huge amount of commitment there. He certainly never follows it up with a vote. Indeed, he says he prefers SDK and didn't find moody's recent content scummy towards the end of D2.

His D3 reads post has 3 people alive, and definitively labels 2 town, with no conclusion on LaserGuy (although it looks like he has no issues with him either).

That's all really where he posts concrete thoughts on still-living players, so aside from Madge, I don't think there's much to rule him out as a buddy from this angle. I'm going to take a quick skim of votes on him now.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:35 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

wam wrote:Fyi We have 30 minutes to deadline.
I was about to deny this, but nope, you're right :shock: Time to do that promised speedy analysis.

@BoomFrog, prior to doing said analysis, I feel like scum would have decided to bus by now, and Mark would be an obvious candidate. If the scum team is, as I believe, among {moody, Mark, mpolo, wam}, they need to find a way to dig themselves out of the hole they're in. A solid bit of bussing the entire day may be just enough to do that.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:20 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

@everyone - if you received a fruit that according to the D2 plan makes Mark the vendor, you really should claim!

plytho wrote:I think he's scum but I'm not confident enough to risk game-end over it.
Going back over the plytho logic, this bit of his post is the most concerning. If you think Mark is scum, lynching him is the logical course of action, as we can't guarantee a modkill. Indeed I'm opposed on principal on relying on modkill to influence the game, regardless of alignment. However, I think your logic does ultimately make sense otherwise (i.e.the conclusion is sound, if not the steps taken to get there). I do still want to review possible Mark buddy partners.

BoomFrog (?) made an interesting point about No Lynch, since that is the usual course of action in MYLO. I think this is only a reasonable course of action if we're pretty confident Mark is town and is going to be modkill. I'm not confident on either point.
by jimbobmacdoodle
Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:14 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Meta Mafia II: Day 5
Replies: 1012
Views: 72903

Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

plytho wrote:
plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm not sure I see your logic plytho. If Mark is scum, which your vote implies you believe him to be, then a modkill is beneficial to town. If Mark is town, then a Mark lynch is also not good.
It's not good, but it's better than the modkill.

town mark: lynch: bad (4:3) modkill potentially good (4:2) or terrible (3:3)
scum mark: lynch: good (5:2) modkill potentially great (5:1) or good (4:2)

I'm trying to make sure we avoid terrible.
Right. Haven't had enough chance to think about it. I think the logic is sound enough, although my main concern is not the logic itself, but more the way you've gone about acting around it. At work now, will try to think about it more on the way home.

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