Search found 925 matches

by Vicarin
Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:28 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 31710
Views: 2172850

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em

Spoiler:
I want to bludgeon Sabrar over the head SO BAD with Bayes' Theorem for getting that analysis wrong, but it wouldn't be appreciated in thread. Oh. Well.
by Vicarin
Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:25 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Non-indicative, not no indicative. I need to sleep instead of posting...
by Vicarin
Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:24 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@Sabrar: my bad, I should clearly just be really confident in reads despite picking out the entire 3 person scum team being historically rather rare on D1 :roll:. I'm sure town has never defended other people from accusations they think are trumped up, no siree. I generally find wam's content fairly...
by Vicarin
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:58 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

EBWOP: Should be "Probably not, but that's more to do with having it being unlikely that any random group of three people has no scum in it."
by Vicarin
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:56 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Where is your read on somitomi, besides the lurking? Where is your read on mpolo, besides the lurking? Besides the lurking, don't have much information about either of them, they've been saying some pretty non-controversial stuff and staying quiet. Where is your read on Zen that puts him on the top...
by Vicarin
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:24 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

I've already explained my position, at least briefly, on everyone. If you want an up to date ordered list, I'll go with Town Vicarin BoomFrog bessie moody Zenii Mark wam Sabrar somitomi mpolo SuperJedi plytho Scum And having actual data to back up your read is never irrelevant. Seems strange coming ...
by Vicarin
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:39 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 31710
Views: 2172850

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em I'm feeling like I was in NNYM, with so much scummy behaviour around that I can't tell who to focus on properly. Bah. And now I'm getting paranoid that the people who I'm not getting scummy behaviour off are just better at hiding it... I do find it very interesting that...
by Vicarin
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:03 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Sabrar wrote:Yes, it would be way easier if people just accepted my math to be correct... :P


I'll accept it when it's correct :P

But yeah, spoilers, righto.

Looking forward to these amazing game-winning Zenii reads :D
by Vicarin
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:52 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Yes, but that means that your probabilities given for how many vigs are in the game are too low, because your best estimate of the number of vigs increases upon seeing a King.
by Vicarin
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:34 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@Sabrar: You've got to take into account that if you're a vig in this game, you're more likely to be in a game with 2 or 3 vigs due to observing that your own card is a King. I don't have my numbers for probabilities of 1, 2 and 3 vigs in the game in front of me, but if you're saying that there's a ...
by Vicarin
Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:29 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

No, I was giving the reason at the time of the post that plytho quoted that I was suspicious of him. Now, I've got the additional ones that I've already explained.
by Vicarin
Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:12 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Actually, yeah, how did you come to that conclusion exactly Sabrar? I can't see how it matches up with the probabilities we both posted. Can you please explain why you think these three are townie? What about moody makes you think he's town? I think those 3 are townie because I'm seeing a ton of scu...
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:52 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Not too surprising that he picked it up, but was surprised at how sure he seemed to be when he asked. Would have expected something along the lines of "Do you find that alignment indicative then?".
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:20 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Uh, you know I did my first response there was because I didn't mention it was alignment indicative, yet wam assumed that I found it interesting because of that. I wanted to know where he was getting that from.
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:39 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Right, seeing as that criticism can be levied against literally anything targeted at you, it's not terribly useful for convincing me that I'm wrong. Also, you're rather fatalistic seeing as it's not an airtight pattern (Sabrar pointed out the town game where you immediately voted that I'd missed), s...
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:11 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@plytho: Hmmm, I was expecting you to say that my argument based on your vote or lack thereof in your first posts was meaningless (and I'd understand that PoV, although disagree with it), but false? What's false about it? With regards to bessie, if she continued to ignore your question after your ne...
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:43 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 31710
Views: 2172850

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em

Spoiler:
Have to update the "Rules and Noob Guide" thread with some definitions of terms like meta read, if only to avoid talking past each other for so long like that again...
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:28 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

The previous reasons I've given, your complete lack of a reaction to those reasons despite having had plenty of time to react to them, and your reaction to bessie seems significantly blown out of proportion. While her response is... harsh, I'm not seeing it being worth a D1 vote compared to a lot of...
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:16 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

I think I like my vote right where it is...
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:27 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

I was using meta read in the sense of someone deviating from their previous established town meta (or matching what they've done in the past as scum), which is why I was so interested in examples from past games.
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:25 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

No, that makes sense. I still think it's entirely likely for town!bessie to not do a analysis of your Joker picture confirmation post, but I can see why you'd think bessie is scum from how she reacted (or more accurately, didn't).
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:12 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

If it has no precedent, then I'd hardly call it a meta read. If you're going to call it that, please tell me your definition of a meta read so I know where you're coming from.
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:08 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Example of how I'd have thought you use a meta read: Sabrar: "Hey, bessie didn't analyse the confirmation posts this game!" Vicarin: "So?" Sabrar: "She usually analyzes the confirmation posts as town, and almost never does it as scum. Here, look at her past 10 games for exam...
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:01 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Because if you want a meta read to be accurate, I would have thought you'd want it to be better than chance at correctly matching past games? If your entire read is based on: But if you're really curious my scum-lean comes from: Intentional? Nope, was in the process of writing it out when I interrup...
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:37 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

First point of business: as I've already explained my issue with bessie not doing the analysis was not at all math-related (comparison with historical numbers), you were the one that insisted on starting on that tangent. But since I have some time, you can find below my summary (and I'm noting that...
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:44 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Unfortunately, getting lynched D1 as town doesn't make your reads any more correct (see me in chaos), so I don't think that's terribly useful.
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:05 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

So you're saying Zen should vote for you first, because it would be cruel to lynch SuperJedi today? :P
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:41 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

@wam: if you believe that they're both scum, why not start with the person who's not contributing much, instead of someone who's actually giving useful content? You even have an additional reason to vote for ScumJedi in I also feel town newbie Jedi would be putting more content put there trying to f...
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:29 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

There is no way you are left with 11 relevant games after you remove those where conf-post analysis had no role to play. Also why shouldn't I ask you about your scum-reads? Did you not want to share them? I'd like to see how you divide those games into those 4 categories after removing the ones whe...
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:03 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Sabrar wrote:Sheep me for an easy win.


:roll:

Why'd you ask me about my scum reads?
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:34 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Who would be the third member of a BoomFrog SuperJedi team?
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:17 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 31710
Views: 2172850

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Texas Hold'em

Spoiler:
Oh boy, here I go doubting all my reads after my track record in Chaos Mafia. Ugh.
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:43 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Well, I have that feeling too, so that's nice :D
by Vicarin
Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:28 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

You've got absolutely no thoughts on anyone's behaviour or the setup? bessie has already pointed out why town with no content are a massive liability late game, do you think you're helping town right now?
by Vicarin
Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:49 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Why do you think I want a scummy meta? I like playing scum, as I have said, but I never said I want a scummy meta. Ah, right, Madge was giving advice on how to have a scummy meta at the end of WoT3 after you said you liked playing scum, but you didn't respond. I'm getting the vague feeling that you...
by Vicarin
Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:15 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Eh, may as well try, need to get them to do something...

Can we get modprods for Somitomi and SuperJedi?
by Vicarin
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:58 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Ah, yeah, dammit.
by Vicarin
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:37 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Hey Somitomi, how about a reads list?

Maybe I'll go for the double-modprod request on Somitomi and SuperJedi in an hour and a half...
by Vicarin
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:20 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Hmmmm, so if I count them correctly (some are debatable), that's 2 mafia with conf post, 1 mafia no conf post, 3 town conf post, and 8 town no conf post? Why did you include the games with no confirmation phase/no strange conf-posts? Why would you think they are relevant? Hmm, was just trying to ge...
by Vicarin
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:56 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 2)
Replies: 722
Views: 6696

Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Hmmmm, so if I count them correctly (some are debatable), that's 2 mafia with conf post, 1 mafia no conf post, 3 town conf post, and 8 town no conf post? Making a no conf post game to be more likely bessie being town than normal, if that's all you have to go on.

Go to advanced search