Search found 85 matches

by trpmb6
Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:03 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

hence why I referred mainly to the margin in percentage (percentage to the total amount of votes), and the total number of raw votes secondary. Wikipedia already has all this data accounted for and it controls for population growth. This data was already discussed in this forum weeks ago. And has b...
by trpmb6
Fri Nov 11, 2016 8:14 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Speaking as a young liberal in the Pacific Northwest, I'm not sure *I* understand the violent protests here. But I've never lived in Seattle or Portland. In the medium-sized cities, we're seeing lots of peaceful protesting, but it always seems to turn violent in the two big ones. Maybe there's just...
by trpmb6
Fri Nov 11, 2016 8:07 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

So are we saying that the people who live in the counties in south east Ohio and Western Pennsylvania are racists now because they overwhelmingly supported Trump ~60-65% even after they had supported Obama overwhelmingly ~60-65%+ in 2008 and 2012? What about Michigan? They haven't voted red in a ver...
by trpmb6
Thu Nov 10, 2016 3:06 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Trump has shown nothing but contempt for NATO - this is not a rational person. As he should. Only the USA and Poland uphold their ends of the defense spending portion of NATO's treaty. We send our troops and protect their countries but they do not reciprocate. Perhaps we should pull out and let Rus...
by trpmb6
Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:23 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

While the chart is misleading, I think the core point is very significant. At least insofar as it fits my personal interpretation of the result, and why the polling missed the result. Most people were expecting Obama's phenomenal ground game to transfer more significantly to Clinton, or to the post...
by trpmb6
Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:15 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

That chart is a poster child for how to deliberately mislead, also. Note how the y-axis doesn't start at zero... Most people wont notice and will think Dem voting is down by 1/2 or even 2/3rds when in fact it's down by about 1/7 - which is explained much more simply by how inspirational Obama was t...
by trpmb6
Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:14 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Reading the last few posts, I'd like to ask you all if you can fathom some non derogatory reasons why someone would vote for Trump. Or, in your minds, there are only the most terrible of reasons to pick him? Referenced some already. May or may not be accurate. 1. Changing markets/globalization. Ben...
by trpmb6
Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:43 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

New york times just posted they give trump a 91 percent chance to win.

Mic drop
by trpmb6
Sun Nov 06, 2016 3:56 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

The Hatch Act prevents executive employees from campaigning, and then there are DOJ policies Comey violated (and was warned about ahead of time) that prevented him from discussing ongoing investigations close to elections if they might interfere. Comey definitely violated the latter policy, and may...
by trpmb6
Mon Oct 31, 2016 4:26 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1753: "Thumb War"
Replies: 16
Views: 3759

Re: 1753: "Thumb War"

Who raised Black Hat anyway? It's pretty clear from the picture that Black Hat was raised by a toy dump truck. That's still likely better than being born to a mountain and a laundry machine After reading the Wikipedia stuff I am beyond intrigued. I feel compelled to read this now out of curiosity.
by trpmb6
Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:22 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

I wonder if there's any polling going on about whether a breaking news item (or the expectation of one) discourages potential early voters who want to make sure or encourages those who want to be able to say they voted that way before something horrible happened that they wouldn't want to admit to ...
by trpmb6
Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:09 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

That abc wash post tracking pool went from clinton +12 to Clinton +1. (Does not include FBI stuff) http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a82016ElectionTrackingNo8.pdf I thought you didn't like the ABC / Washington Post poll? The average of Real Clear Politics is still +4% Clinton. ht...
by trpmb6
Sun Oct 30, 2016 2:28 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Allegedly, Huma does not know how the emails got on Weiner's laptop. To make matters worse for her, she made a sworn statement saying she had turned over all devices. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/clinton-aide-huma-abedin-has-told-people-she-doesnt-know-how-her-emails-wound-...
by trpmb6
Sun Oct 30, 2016 2:19 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

That abc wash post tracking pool went from clinton +12 to Clinton +1. (Does not include FBI stuff)

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten ... ingNo8.pdf
by trpmb6
Sun Oct 30, 2016 3:25 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Comey's main concern seems to have been that it would look really bad on everybody if it leaked before it went public, which is fair enough, I guess. I don't know if there was a way he could've handled it without taking over a news cycle. Exactly. They found emails that are important. Nobody debies...
by trpmb6
Sat Oct 29, 2016 2:19 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

It would definitely be a good time for the HRC camp to drop whatever oppo they've got left on Trump. I told my friends as soon as the news broke to expect another alleged sexual assault to emerge this weekend or Monday. But I think if they did that it would be so blatantly political that most would...
by trpmb6
Sat Oct 29, 2016 2:17 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

2) You can't ask for transparency when you kept your own campaign chair (Podesta) out of the loop on it until it broke in the news. My read of it from Newsweek is that Clinton could not possibly have known of the existence of the emails in question. This particular story looks is looks like a recor...
by trpmb6
Sat Oct 29, 2016 2:11 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Clinton in her press conference calls for transparency. 3 things. 1) She and Huma already know whats on Huma's device, they can release it. (Just like trump could release his tax returns) 2) You can't ask for transparency when you kept your own campaign chair (Podesta) out of the loop on it until it...
by trpmb6
Fri Oct 28, 2016 8:20 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Think this is the 11th hour hit the Trump campaign needs, or is it simply too similar to past revelations to have much impact? I mean, it isn't *good* for Clinton, but it seems to be mostly more of the same. I can see it being dismissed out of hand by supporters, and those who can be easily swayed ...
by trpmb6
Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:44 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Another update on Clinton's Email Server investigation that was just reopened: According to the New York Times the newly discovered emails were found during the investigation into Anthony Weiner's illicit text messages sent to a minor. They had seized multiple devices from Huma abedin and Anthony We...
by trpmb6
Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:14 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

In other news, FBI is reopening investigations against Clinton's email server. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/fbi-reopens-clinton-email-server-investigation-230454 Yeah. It has not been a particularly good day for Clinton. There is also this audio clip from an interview she had with the Jewi...
by trpmb6
Fri Oct 28, 2016 5:46 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

The fact that the Republican party was responsible for most anti-slavery stuff doesn't mean it wasn't a progressive liberal thing, it just means the Republican party used to be the more progressive of the two. What makes something progressive? I would say one necessary condition would be to want so...
by trpmb6
Fri Oct 28, 2016 5:36 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Please. Trying to draw a distinction between contributions and spending is just a way to try to get to the conclusion you want. Are you seriously arguing that the government should be able to arbitrarily restrict charitable contributions? There's broader implications here. No, there isn't. Money is...
by trpmb6
Fri Oct 28, 2016 5:22 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Please. Trying to draw a distinction between contributions and spending is just a way to try to get to the conclusion you want. Are you seriously arguing that the government should be able to arbitrarily restrict charitable contributions? There's broader implications here. No, there isn't. Money is...
by trpmb6
Fri Oct 28, 2016 2:04 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Can we all just admit that we all want to stack the court with people who agree with us politically? I highly doubt we'll ever see a candidate who comes out and says they're going to pick someone who is apolitical because that would hurt that candidate politically. Some states have tried to remove t...
by trpmb6
Fri Oct 28, 2016 1:15 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

I can't decide if KnightExemplar's claim that conservative judges don't bend the Constitution is a No True Scotsman fallacy or just blatantly ahistorical nonsense. Was Scalia a "conservative judge"? If you say yes, then I'll know it's the nonsense you' re going for. If no, then it's No Tr...
by trpmb6
Thu Oct 27, 2016 5:15 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Like, we're not talking about world ending catastrophe here; we're talking about the legitimization of Trump's narrative; the legitimization of a narrative that describe a Hillary victory as "the last election". A narrative that is deeply anti-science, Islamophobic, racist, nativist, anti...
by trpmb6
Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:52 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

In the final week I'm expecting something Hueg! from the Trump camp/Wikileaks/external-influences (delete if inapplicable) . The newest Podesta email was intriguing. Even he seemed to think Hillary's use of a private email server was stupid. (I think everyone agrees it was stupid, but the w...
by trpmb6
Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:47 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Trump hasn't really been campaigning these last few days, leading to suggestions that he's given up, or possibly just resting up for his post-election whine fest. Trump has been campaigning... several rallies each day actually. He just hasn't said anything stupid the last week, so the media doesn't...
by trpmb6
Wed Oct 26, 2016 8:06 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

But maybe they are right, and to be quite honest, I don't really think there is any way of refuting their argument, so long as they believe that God is all powerful and can do whatever it is he pleases. It's magic. What would you expect. I try not to marginalize their belief like that anymore. I've...
by trpmb6
Wed Oct 26, 2016 7:37 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

My experience with engineers in the aircraft industry is a plurality of them are fiscal conservatives, and a good number of them are social conservatives. It varies by region, but even when I worked in Seattle I found this to be somewhat true (though not nearly as prevalent as when I worked in Wichi...
by trpmb6
Wed Oct 26, 2016 7:19 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1751: "Movie Folder"
Replies: 57
Views: 7451

Re: 1751: "Movie Folder"

ruurdjan wrote:So, blackhat is basically a hipster? Not sure what I think of that...



I actually thought they were just reading bad pr0n movie titles....
by trpmb6
Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:28 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

There is a perceived enthusiasm gap between Clinton and Trump due to the large rallies he holds. Whether or not that actually materializes in the election is what I am most interested to see. As we saw with Bernie's rallies during the primaries, rally enthusiasm often doesn't translate to better el...
by trpmb6
Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:33 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

I'm also fascinated with trying to understand the Trump base -- I have a strong (purely feeling-based) notion that one of the primary fears driving their support of Trump is fear of irrelevance. It makes sense to me when I think about where a lot of them come from: white (confronted with growing po...
by trpmb6
Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:24 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

You're looking at enthusiasm in support -for- Trump or Clinton. This year isn't really one where any candidate get support -for- their position, but people "voting for" one candidate or the other are actually voting -against- the other. Even Trump supports are hard pressed to point to any...
by trpmb6
Tue Oct 25, 2016 3:07 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

AFAICT the bias adjustment is done on the basis of historical accuracy of the polls. Can you give an example of what you mean? But that is part of my point. This election is unlike any modern election. Others have already noted on this forum that Fivethirtyeight has repeatedly noted the complicatio...
by trpmb6
Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:13 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ Tldr: look the pollster up on this guide, and it'll tell you how seriously to take said poll. If you want a more in depth analysis, read on. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/ On...
by trpmb6
Tue Oct 25, 2016 1:51 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

It seems trite and oversimplified to say something like this, but Obama gained a lot by actively attracting 'minorities'. Clinton not so much, but Trump seems yet to have done much to repel them, and drive them her way in comparable numbers. Pretty sure Republicans assume there is a defined barrier...
by trpmb6
Tue Oct 25, 2016 1:37 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1749: "Mushrooms"
Replies: 47
Views: 6680

Re: 1749: "Mushrooms"

I guess I should have been more specific: Some fungi breath aerobically *using O2. Thus differentiating them further from the "Plant kingdom."
by trpmb6
Tue Oct 25, 2016 1:03 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2016 US Presidential Election
Replies: 8482
Views: 727201

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

I'd like to know if those here actually believe the ABC/Washington post poll that was released showing Clinton with a 12 point lead in a 4 way race. The demographic sampling was 36-27-31, Democrats / Republicans / Independents. Democrats didn't even come close to that high (+9) of an advantage over ...

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