Search found 121 matches

by Opus_723
Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:22 pm UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 2082: "Mercator Projection"
Replies: 29
Views: 1764

Re: 2082: "Mercator Projection"

Is it just me or is "everyone's been brain-washed by Mercator" thing really just the assumption that other people don't know about map projections? I was taught about map projections in primary school, and hasn't everyone looked at a globe at least once? Worse is the idea that any other m...
by Opus_723
Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:54 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

Ok, serious question. What activities would a forestry service normally do that could actually prevent fires? Context: Trump talking out of his ass regarding what California should've done to prevent forest fires. At this point I'm half expecting him to say that it's Silicon Valley's fault for not ...
by Opus_723
Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:34 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

But even that point aside: The question shouldn't be "Well, if COPS aren't punishing the murderers, who will?!" but rather: "Do cops actually prevent murder? Or do they contribute to it?" I have to admit I hadn't really thought to consider that second question. My prior is defin...
by Opus_723
Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:52 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage
Replies: 217
Views: 23052

Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

And the Arizona seat has been called for the Democrat. Considering all of the "worst map for any party in decades" talk, a net loss of 2 seats seems pretty rosy for the Democrats. Just imagine how this year would have looked if Clinton were president. Republicans might have gotten a superm...
by Opus_723
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:57 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage
Replies: 217
Views: 23052

Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

So the popular vote margin looks to be around 8-9% for the Democrats (might change), with a result of something like 227 seats (not settled yet, just going off the 538 projection now that things are slowing down for the night). Comparing that to 2010, when the Republican party won the vote by 6.8% a...
by Opus_723
Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:25 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage
Replies: 217
Views: 23052

Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

It can be a combination of poor planning, maliciousness (closing consolidating voting areas), and surge in turnout. Some areas (with high turnout and rich white) have more resources dedicated to voting. My state does have a mail in ballot, I think, but I wasn't sure how it worked. Like I got a mail...
by Opus_723
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:01 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage
Replies: 217
Views: 23052

Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

I'm in line for early voting today, and the line is getting longer and longer. Right now it's spiraling around the cafeteria. I'm glad people want to vote and all, but this GOP rep better lose. Cuz this is a miserable rainy day, and I've been standing in line for 30 minutes. I'll update if it takes...
by Opus_723
Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:53 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

I think every case should be decided on the evidence. The cases against him are weak. I don't think they even meet the balance of the probabilities. I would also note that roughly only 5% of men are rapists. Most rapists are violent in other parts of their lives and do it more than once. He is accu...
by Opus_723
Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:34 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/trump-adds-to-confusion-over-scope-of-fbi-investigation-of-kavanaugh-accusations/2018/10/01/1aa5e922-c561-11e8-b1ed-1d2d65b86d0c_story.html Even after making some concessions to broaden the scope of the investigation, the White house is still stopping...
by Opus_723
Sun Sep 30, 2018 7:12 am UTC
Forum: Science
Topic: Childhood (not so) crackpot theories
Replies: 432
Views: 51455

Re: Childhood (not so) crackpot theories

I was just thinking to myself the other day that I actually think a lot of the 'explanations' of natural phenomenon in flat-earth theory would be fiendishly clever... if they were coming from a ten-year-old. Expect for the whole 'sunsets are optical illusions' thing. I feel like even a ten-year-old ...
by Opus_723
Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:56 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

All the reporting I'm seeing seems confused as to how much the White House is limiting the scope of the investigation, and the claims by WH staff seem to be at odds with "sources close to the investigation." That's probably somewhat normal, but I think it should be noted that there's the p...
by Opus_723
Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:15 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

Even if he is innocent of the assaults, or genuinely doesn't remember them, I am absolutely convinced he is lying about his drinking habits. And all of his 'innocent" explanations for the high school jokes were... Well, they're small lies, but they were laughably bad. On a more subjective note,...
by Opus_723
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:58 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

There was a very religious conservative woman on the shortlist. As far as politics and optics goes, that would seem like the smart pick to me. Then again, I thought she was the smart pick the first time around as well. I said they could push someone through even if the Democrats won the Senate, but ...
by Opus_723
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:43 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

Confirmation times for current members of the Supreme Court. Roberts: 19 days Ginsburg: 50 days Gorsuch: 66 Sotomayor: 66 Breyer: 74 Alito: 82 Kagan: 87 Thomas: 99 Currently 50 days between now and the midterms. Let's just say we shouldn't expect a confirmation in 19 days. Let me just use LinEst fu...
by Opus_723
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:29 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

BREAKING Third accuser expected Yeah, let's just assume that Kavanaugh is not fit for SCOTUS Avenatti announced that he had a client who would make these claims last night, around the same time the Ramirez story broke, but didn't say when she might come forward. I was hesitant to bring up Avenatti'...
by Opus_723
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:03 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

You'd know what would be darkly hilarious, in a "bwahaha my house is burning, hahaha, someone please give me a hug" sort of way? If Brett doesn't get the nom and it instead gets rushed through to someone else who is far more politically disgusting, like "ban all abortions, remove jur...
by Opus_723
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:47 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

Well, I feel a little better. I've been posting on this forum all day a little incredulous that this wasn't being taken at least a little more seriously, but it should have occurred to me that we weren't all up to date.
by Opus_723
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:39 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

I was going to edit the other post but this thread is moving faster than I'm used to. The New Yorker article doesn't have witnesses, but at least one person (two? I can't remember now) claims to have heard about the incident, and specifically that it was Kavanaugh, in the following days. One of the ...
by Opus_723
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:23 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

Can we just acknowledge that we are definitively not in "a single accusation" territory since last night? I feel like a lot of people here haven't read the news today. There is another accusation from his college years now, and a couple of people claiming that they heard about it, and Kava...
by Opus_723
Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:56 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

Tyndmyr wrote:
No change as in "no impact". Getting him disqualified would be a change as a result of the accusation.


Why is the neutral, fair option to give him everything he wants? If that's neutral, what the hell is the Pro-Kavanaugh bias option? We give him cookies, too?
by Opus_723
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:50 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

One problem I have with the idea that Democrats gin up these accusations to take down opponents is that MANY, many men who the Democrats would love to see burn are oddly immune, and have no accusations whatsoever. People have been raising the fear that this would become a craven political tactic for...
by Opus_723
Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:16 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

I think this is getting too bogged down in what is/isn't a prosecutable crime, statutes of limitations and so on. It's a job interview, not a criminal case. In a sane world, if I had a list of qualified people and found out that my first choice MAY be rapey, I'd just move on to the second choice on ...
by Opus_723
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:58 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

Oh, of course I know that almost all of these people live in bubbles of wealth and privilege, and have since they were kids. Obviously that makes them particularly asinine. What I mean is that, at the end of the day, they just don't seem any more viciously cynical, cutthroat, or manipulative than my...
by Opus_723
Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:10 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

I think there is literally no way this could have gone that she wouldn't be accused of being a Democrat pawn. Sure, politicians are gonna strategize and capitalize, it's what they do. But they're also people. I get pretty weary of the whole 'politicians are evil because everything they do is self-se...
by Opus_723
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:43 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

I'm a little confused from the reading I've done, did the Democrats request the FBI follow-up, or is that coming from her and her lawyer?
by Opus_723
Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:50 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

When I first heard about the union case I thought it made sense for the unions to simply stop representing nonmembers. If someone told me that I could make another couple thousand dollars a year and get better health insurance by joining the union after all, I'd join pretty damn quick no matter how ...
by Opus_723
Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:36 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

And 538 ran a piece awhile ago making the case that the generic ballot by itself is reasonably predictive, even 18 months out, and only gets better as the midterm approaches. We're less than a year out now. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-the-best-tool-we-have-for-understanding-how-the-mi...
by Opus_723
Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:03 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

As far as I know, a bill in Senate has to receive a CBO estimate before a vote - surely they're trying to get around that if McConnell is planning to vote next week. How are they doing that? I don't have a link, but I recall reading that they have been sending drafts to the CBO this whole time, and...
by Opus_723
Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:45 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

Don't forget the South Carolina results last night. I don't know why Democrats are upset. They're knocking these out of the park. We just haven't seen anything close to a swing district since November. Georgia is probably just quirky, or the crazy attention and spending artificially evened out turno...
by Opus_723
Sat Jun 17, 2017 12:55 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Police misbehavior thread
Replies: 6473
Views: 976445

Re: Police misbehavior thread

The only way they could possibly be found guilty is if they could prove premeditation. No, the defense was demanding that the officer be given some deference because of the drugs and the speed of the killing. The jury agreed with that, but it doesn't rule out a civil case. ( Civil cases only need m...
by Opus_723
Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:42 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Puerto Rico Debt Crisis: $70+ Billion in Debt and counting
Replies: 29
Views: 13900

Re: Puerto Rico Debt Crisis: $70+ Billion in Debt and counting

The opposition boycotted the vote, hence the abysmal turnout. Meaningless result. Even if turnout was really high, there's no way that Republicans would risk a blue state coming into the country. I'm not sure if even the Democrats would want a fairly red mirror state either. I'm not understanding w...
by Opus_723
Sat May 27, 2017 2:56 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

Oh look, Russia again. https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/us/politics/kushner-talked-to-russian-envoy-about-creating-secret-channel-with-kremlin.html?referer=https://news.google.com/ Honestly, I'm not convinced his campaign did anything illegal. All of this crap sounds exactly like what would som...
by Opus_723
Tue May 02, 2017 12:13 am UTC
Forum: Individual XKCD Comic Threads
Topic: 1831: "Here to Help"
Replies: 21
Views: 8726

Re: 1831: "Here to Help"

In academia, I refer to this as "disciplinary imperialism," where someone from an outside discipline [*cough cough physics*] thinks, "How hard can curing cancer be? I bet no one smart has ever tried." As someone in physics, this is spot on. I mean, it's a minority for sure, but ...
by Opus_723
Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:59 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: The Thread To Remind Me We're Living In The Future
Replies: 1853
Views: 323647

Re: The Thread To Remind Me We're Living In The Future

Something with negative mass would have negative energy. That would be very very strange. It's not even clear what it means, physically, for something to have negative energy. It's like asking for a sphere with negative radius. Or having a plate with -3 slices of pie on it. I'm sure I'm missing som...
by Opus_723
Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:49 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

The next one is the Montana special election, and I think there's a senate election at the end of the year as well? The rule of thumb is to average the difference in vote margins. Each race is quirky, but combined, you'll get predictive value. To be honest though, Trump doesn't seem politically muc...
by Opus_723
Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:41 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

The next one is the Montana special election, and I think there's a senate election at the end of the year as well? The rule of thumb is to average the difference in vote margins. Each race is quirky, but combined, you'll get predictive value. To be honest though, Trump doesn't seem politically muc...
by Opus_723
Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:04 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

Georgia seems like it can be read in a lot of ways. Ossof didn't improve on Clinton's performance, but if you compare him against the congressional race last November instead of the presidential one, he looks absolutely golden. And Clinton's performance in Georgia was already a sharp turn from previ...
by Opus_723
Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:45 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: Trump presidency
Replies: 7989
Views: 617944

Re: Trump presidency

And it turns out that we didn't have ships off the Korean peninsula after all. They're like, totally on their way now though.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39638012
by Opus_723
Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:20 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: ACA Lives For Another Year
Replies: 93
Views: 30902

Re: ACA Lives For Another Year

Sizik wrote:
Opus_723 wrote:evidence-based diet experts ( what the heck are those called, anyway?)

Dietitians.


Ah, thank you. I knew either dietitian or nutritionist was a BS title, but I couldn't remember which. Turns out it's "nutritionist" that's entirely unregulated.
by Opus_723
Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:05 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: ACA Lives For Another Year
Replies: 93
Views: 30902

Re: ACA Lives For Another Year

I mean seriously, having the highest obesity rate in the developed world isn't really helping us with medical costs, just for one example. Except that obesity is a can of causational worms, with a lot of the factors involved in it being related to factors that are outside the individual patient's c...

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