xkcd

Sabrar

LaserGuy wrote:Do you understand that the term "statistical correlation" means?

As a matter of fact I do.

My problem is that I'm always second-guessing myself. Let's not do that any more.

Vote: LaserGuy

Sabrar

though whether it happens more often than chance is a bit more work to figure out than I'm willing to put in: So you're deliberately not looking at evidence that could prove you wrong. Is cemper scum ? @ all : I really don't want to sound I'm lecturing (my reads are wrong more often than not so who...

Sabrar

LaserGuy wrote:Actually, assuming the correlation does exist,

This is your problem right here. You're using a 'tell' that was never demonstrated to be accurate to support your theory.

Sabrar

Same thing, you know that there was no partner vibe to be found in PW's question to Vicarin but you assume there was wrt Hari.

Sabrar

Let's see an example: There's an interesting interaction between PW and Hari here where PW asks Hari to explain his scoring system. As an aside, first I note that this is on Page 3, which Hari himself has suggested is where scum will typically ask their partners a non-trivial question. For reference...

Sabrar

I was just beginning to accept a bessie+Hari scum-team until LaserGuy came in and started misrepresenting some of Hari's content.

Sabrar

Hard to describe it better but enmity between bessie and LaserGuy feels genuine (with the caveat that they are both good enough to fake it).

Sabrar

Posting what I have so far as I found the time to write it up. Some thoughts on why early bussing is an unlikely scum-tactic in this particular setup Being the driver of a D1 scum-lynch earns you huge townie-points (ref: yours truly in Crossover), however in the current setup there are signi...

Sabrar

I'm about 80% convinced that it's not bessie+flicky. Which means that there must be scum in {Hari Seldon, LaserGuy} . Also originally I thought that I would summarize my findings towards the end of the day only to allow everyone else to make independent analysis. However I realized that in doing so ...

Sabrar

I'm a bit hesitant about this but it's like 90% sure we can discard bessie+cemper/MOA.

Sabrar

bessie wrote:I unvoted because if MoA did show up and voted for flicky, jimbob could hammer.

Why were you afraid of jimbob hammering 3 hours before deadline? Wouldn't that have given us a lot of info?

Sabrar

For most part of the game flicky and Hari avoid each other like wildfire, not even committing to reads. From that pov that is certainly a possible pair.

Sabrar

Sabrar wrote:(and allow Hari to catch up)

+MOA
Almost forgot he's in the game...

Sabrar

I'm probably discarding LaserGuy+flicky as well.

Sabrar

This leaves 10 possible pairs which should be manageable to review. Furthermore I think it's fair to discard cemper/MOA+flicky and Hari+LaserGuy based on D1 (though I will take a second look). That leaves 8 pairs. Also, even though it's MYLO there's technically no advantage in NL, except to gain mor...

Sabrar

Newbie New Year

Spoiler:

Sabrar

He'll be lynched tomorrow, don't worry.

Sabrar

But you were more sure about jimbob.

Sabrar

LaserGuy wrote:I knew I'd be here in the morning, and was reasonably certain my vote would not be needed.

But your vote could have contributed to us lynching flicky.

Sabrar

Unofficial votals - correction

jimbobmacdoodle - 4 (Hari Seldon, Sabrar, flicky1991, MasterOfAll)
flicky1991 - 2 (LaserGuy, jimbobmacdoodle)

Not voting: bessie, BoomFrog

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.

Sabrar

bessie wrote:It’s 7:30 am PST (so, for bessie, LaserGuy, BoomFrog, MasterOfAll). We shall see who shows up.

We shall see. If LaserGuy was serious about moving to jimbob the least he could have done is to unvote first. That has no risk.

Sabrar

I'm online for another 1.5 hours or so and maybe will be online 5 minutes before deadline but no promises. Not planning to move my vote.

Sabrar

LaserGuy is incredibly suspicious for not following up on this.

Sabrar

I might be getting totally played here but I would like to refer to Solomon the wise for advice and reaffirm my vote on jimbob.

Sabrar

bessie wrote:@Sabrar, I was fortunate enough to see him speak (shit, showed my age there).

Lucky dog.

@BoomFrog: I don't think it matters but please share who you protected N3 before you die.

Sabrar

bessie wrote:Brain the size of a planet, does he have the answer, and can he calculate the question?

Big fan

Sabrar

Withholding the kill after we lynch anyone is a really dumb idea. I thought you analyzed the math earlier.

Sabrar

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:(unless it would cause a NL, as we can't afford another one of those this day, I think)

Why do you think so?

Sabrar

Regarding my lurking : Work became terribly busy otherwise I would have participated a lot more (anyone scum-reading me because of less content than usual should be aware that I post the same amount as any alignment so this is completely irl-dependent). With that said EGW and LaserGuy were totally ...

Sabrar

Van the Man Thanks for the context. jimbob’s in-depth analysis of my meta reminds me of Sabrar’s in-depth analysis of Madge’s meta in Crossover. It was interesting as a case study but contributed little to the game. And as Sabrar himself admitted, it was purposely not the most productive use of his...

Sabrar

Where am I sheeping? The italicized parts in these two posts and some of the surrounding text feel like sheeping to me (not in the sense that you're agreeing with confirmed town but in the way that you want to influence their view on you (similar to what you accused BoomFrog here )). There are also...

Sabrar

BoomFrog wrote:I'm fine with lynching those two and Flicky in almost any order.

We're in agreement here. I'm still stuck on jimbob.

Sabrar

Sabrar wrote:The only point I disagree with you strongly is the possibility of a {jimbob,LaserGuy} scum-team, which unfortunately would lead us to a loss if we follow your plan. Could you explain it in more detail?

@BoomFrog: did you miss this?

Sabrar

Hi Sabrar, are you annoyed with being confirmed town? Do you miss arguing with me me me over your questionable reads like in X-men? Or are you enjoying the view from the Ivory Tower with Boomfrog? Just because I'm confirmed shouldn't stop you from arguing about my horrendous reads. :D Also may I sa...

Sabrar

@Sabrar - I don't consider bessie's ongoing conversation with you discussing a plan as tunnelling, as it was about a strategic play, rather than a belief in somebody's alignment, although whilst having it, I acknowledge that bessie said almost nothing about lots of people. I tried to refer to somet...

Sabrar

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I am going to look back at a couple of recent town!bessie games to see if this was how hard she tunnelled before, to the detriment of looking at anybody else, because I don't remember it ever being quite this extreme..

Check X-men.

Sabrar

Found a little time to finally reread cemper. Overall I like their content and tone, plus I think I have spotted another town-slip (seems like we're full of them in this game...)

Sabrar

Yes, we should be looking for interactions between scum mainly D1 and D2 (and maybe early D3). After that everything will be filled with wine.

Ninja'd by bessie.

Sabrar

But PW seems like he found Vicarin's breadcrumb mid D1, which means scum probably mostly wanted to kill Vicarin and only considered holding back because of the possible link to PW for finding the crumb. Since PW got lynched the NK target was probably a very simple decision. So I doubt scum talked m...

Sabrar

Regarding flicky: here is my take on these three posts : scum!flicky knows somitomi is confirmed Town so the first post is a complete fake. He expects someone to point that fact out so he can react with the third post and hopefully earn townie points. He doesn't expect that someone points out someth...

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