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by BattleMoose
Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:55 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Actually I am happy to accept the consensus view at 2-3% GDP loss. I recognize the authors think something different. I also recognize that very many other people also think different things. Not knowing who is the more credible, sticking to the consensus view seems reasonable to me. So the meta-an...
by BattleMoose
Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:06 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Yes, British MPs can play politics of course they can, and ideology often rules the roost, but, when it comes to the very biggest cross-party issues, many if not most will vote their conscience. Not so sure about that. I still cannot get married in my country. Conscience votes not being allowed. Ev...
by BattleMoose
Sun Jun 26, 2016 4:52 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

This is just how our democracies work. Both sides bend the truth as much as possible for their side. Which is why democracy should be limited; We've tried it a number of times in our history and it tends not to work out very well. :/ Yes, it went a bit crazy in the final week after Leave hit the le...
by BattleMoose
Sun Jun 26, 2016 4:30 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

I know politicians all bend the truth as much as possible, but Boris and co treated this totally like a game - like this was some high school debating society cup they were trying to win. This was not simply a general election, where a mistake can be rectified in five years time when we vote in a n...
by BattleMoose
Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:56 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Actually I am happy to accept the consensus view at 2-3% GDP loss. I recognize the authors think something different. I also recognize that very many other people also think different things. Not knowing who is the more credible, sticking to the consensus view seems reasonable to me. I accept the un...
by BattleMoose
Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:31 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

@Battlemoose Ok, so it seems like we disagree about how bad bad is. Your article concludes that a loss of only 2-3% of GDP is optimistic - that a loss of 5% is much more likely. The mainstream consensus view, as the article called it, view 2-3% GDP as likely. The authors of the article conclude som...
by BattleMoose
Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:48 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

I am puzzled as to how you think this supports your side of the argument rather than mine. Perhaps you missed this part. We challenge this mainstream conclusion If you look earlier in the paper for the mainstream conclusion you will find. Based on the more reliable and comprehensive ex ante studies...
by BattleMoose
Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:00 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

I have referred to a meta analysis of peer reviewed studies examining the exact question as to the economic of a Brexit for the uk. The range of forecasts were very high. Some good for the uk, most not but it all depends on the assumptions for post brexit trade agreements. That and some other stuff ...
by BattleMoose
Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:31 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

There has been so many references to these experts but really not many actual references. Do you have some?
by BattleMoose
Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:28 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Like I say, I was on the fence at the start of the campaign. By the end, though, Remain's case seemed to be based on a rational exploration of the costs and benefits, and Leave was all passion and ideology that seemed to be cutting off the nose to spite the face. I watched the debate thing last nig...
by BattleMoose
Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:29 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

And its okay that you have your opinion that the numbers will work out in the way that you suppose. They might work out differently. Its impossible to guess at how the future will be negotiated between the EU and the UK. It seems obvious to me that greater restrictions on immigration will have a po...
by BattleMoose
Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:08 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

And its okay that you have your opinion that the numbers will work out in the way that you suppose. They might work out differently. Its impossible to guess at how the future will be negotiated between the EU and the UK. It seems obvious to me that greater restrictions on immigration will have a po...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:30 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

And its okay that you have your opinion that the numbers will work out in the way that you suppose. They might work out differently. Its impossible to guess at how the future will be negotiated between the EU and the UK. It seems obvious to me that greater restrictions on immigration will have a po...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:11 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

And its okay that you have your opinion that the numbers will work out in the way that you suppose. They might work out differently. Its impossible to guess at how the future will be negotiated between the EU and the UK. It seems obvious to me that greater restrictions on immigration will have a pos...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:40 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

I never intended to imply that the uk might implement country specific immigration laws. Just that those laws would effect different countries disproportionately. I fully take on board that the EU might push on immigration very hard, as has been demonstrated for Switzerland and Norway.
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:22 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

We probably have the same opinion on the economic contribution of unskilled individuals, We have a different opinion on what proportion of EU immigrants are so lacking in skills that they are worth refusing entry to. As a South African who chose to emigrate, I am very familiar with the very high ba...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:59 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

Yes Britain can make any rule it wants, but it can't make any treaty it wants. A treaty requires mutual agreement. You don't need a treaty to make immigration laws. If the EU demands free movement for work as part of a trade agreement, well, that would be very weird and totally unprecedented. Typic...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:56 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

Exactly. In other words, immigration will not fall much from now, since most immigrants have a positive economic effect. I think you will find we have very different opinions on the economic contributions of unskilled individuals to an economy. Very different. Imagine if instead of EU immigration t...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:57 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

but do you think they EU is going to accept that? Once the UK has left the EU, the EU has zero say to force its will on the UK. Short of war or economic sanctions... So yes, I expect the EU to accept that the UK is free to legislate to control its borders however it wants like literally every singl...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:42 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

At no point did the leave campaign say they would reduce immigration. In the last debate, they overtly refused to do so. "Take back control" was always just rhetoric to pander to the xenophobic. What? http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36534802 Vote Leave said over subseque...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:15 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

Basically all unskilled labour emigrating to the UK from the EU can be eliminated. Almost certainly will be. Sure, but the amount of unskilled labour from the EU is not a high percentage of total immigration. I'm not saying immigration overall won't fall at all, just that it won't fall significantl...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:56 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

The point is that we'll probably end up with roughly the same level of immigration as we do now - because the vast majority of immigrants aren't workshy scroungers on benefits, they are in work. Just no. The UK gets about 100k immigrants per year from EU countries. Anyone from the EU can go there a...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:39 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

The FTSE has been open for an hour and its only dropped by about 4.5% and has been gaining consistently since the initial drop. This really isn't the nightmare scenario that people have been espousing. In many ways we are going to have no more control over our borders than we ever did: The UK can no...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:15 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

This is where I give up. There are hundreds of stocks/futures with the term S&P 500 in them. I don't even know what country you are referring to let alone which stock exchange. Still cannot access the chart. Just a quickie sketch I made in MS Paint. Yeah, futures are confusing. Just look at...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:01 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

This is where I give up. There are hundreds of stocks/futures with the term S&P 500 in them. I don't even know what country you are referring to let alone which stock exchange. Still cannot access the chart.
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:53 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

I understand what a future is. I don't trade in futures, my knowledge on how to access the information is limited. I don't even know to which stock exchange you are referring. My complaint is that you haven't given me the information I need to access the chart you posted. Or a link. For all I know y...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:47 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

You may well be right.

To be able to track a stock, I need both the STOCK EXCHANGE and the TICKER. An example, ASX:XJO. Or NASDAQ:NDX.

Incidentally, the ASX, which has been open for the past 6 hours, has only dropped 3.2% and is plateauing.
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:35 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

I don't know what index that is, google finance doesn't recognise SPU6. Either way its a 3.7% drop. The ASX has dropped by more than that in a day for seemingly no reason at all, Sept 28, 2015. Granted its not a full days worth of trading yet and it will be interesting to watch. But its far from unp...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:11 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

There's always a lot of movement in the markets after events like this. Doesn't really mean much and certainly doesn't signify a permanent change in how the economy will work. Its likely many if not all of these indicators will return to where they were and the media won't report on that nor are peo...
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:50 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

Any thoughts about the huge discrepancy between how Scotland voted and the rest of the UK?
by BattleMoose
Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:41 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

CorruptUser wrote:Looks like Britain is out of the EU.


It will be a long time still before they actually leave. But certainly looking like they will.
by BattleMoose
Thu Jun 23, 2016 7:22 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

I don't know of any credible, large organisation whether it's the BoE or the IMF that is not predicting bad things from a Brexit - as are most international firms, who have promised to reduce UK investment. When there is a meta analysis of the peer reviewed literature that deals with the exact ques...
by BattleMoose
Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:13 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

Have economists ever displayed a skill in prediction? EDIT: After a small amount of googling. The range of estimates on the potential economic consequences of a Brexit is amazingly wide – from +12 percent of GDP to potentially around –20 percent. http://www.iwkoeln.de/studien/iw-reports/beitrag/bert...
by BattleMoose
Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:54 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis was essentially spawned by some serious fundamental issues in the Thailand economy which had a knock on effect and so on. The issues here will largely be relating to the bureaucratic nature of taxes and legislation for companies operating and importing/exporting in th...
by BattleMoose
Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:37 am UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]
Replies: 1475
Views: 256145

Re: British EU referendum in June

I really don't see BREXIT as such a big deal? For it to be harrowing? To cause so much anxiety?
by BattleMoose
Wed Jun 22, 2016 3:05 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 50 Dead, 53 Injured in Orlando Gay Club Shooting
Replies: 490
Views: 73530

Re: 50 Dead, 53 Injured in Orlando Gay Club Shooting

Tyndmyr wrote:
BattleMoose wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:Well he claimed he was allied with ISIS


Do you know, what ISIS does to gay people!?!!


Are you quoting Chen?

But yes, I suspect everyone here is aware. Obviously, he chose poorly, and had some issues.


I fixed the quote. The question stands.
by BattleMoose
Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:57 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 50 Dead, 53 Injured in Orlando Gay Club Shooting
Replies: 490
Views: 73530

Re: 50 Dead, 53 Injured in Orlando Gay Club Shooting

Chen wrote:Well he claimed he was allied with ISIS


If a given group can repeatedly inspire lone wolf attacks, that sounds like terrorism to me. Just an annoyingly hard to stop variety.


Do you know, what ISIS does to gay people!?!!

EDIT: Quotes fixed.
by BattleMoose
Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:45 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 50 Dead, 53 Injured in Orlando Gay Club Shooting
Replies: 490
Views: 73530

Re: 50 Dead, 53 Injured in Orlando Gay Club Shooting

Battlemoose, that's where you're wrong. I am saying civilians shouldn't have guns. Period. Assault or any other possible adjective that describes them. I don't care about convincing the crazy folk in the USA about their guns, I don't live in the same country as them. Fortunately for me,the attitude...
by BattleMoose
Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:29 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 50 Dead, 53 Injured in Orlando Gay Club Shooting
Replies: 490
Views: 73530

Re: 50 Dead, 53 Injured in Orlando Gay Club Shooting

When it comes to gun bans, I think for the most part, no one really cares about the assault terminology. For the most part I think people just think civilians should not be able to own guns, period. That's the culture here in Australia. IF you want something for hunting, which is a thing, then, you ...
by BattleMoose
Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:23 pm UTC
Forum: News & Articles
Topic: 50 Dead, 53 Injured in Orlando Gay Club Shooting
Replies: 490
Views: 73530

Re: 50 Dead, 53 Injured in Orlando Gay Club Shooting

The Swiss, for instance, also embraces this concept. No, they don't. While its true that army reservists are required to keep their military issued weapon with them, it is not an armed citizenry. It is militarily trained people, who have their military issued weapon on hand, so should they be calle...

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