Search found 236 matches

by thdl
Thu Nov 22, 2012 3:39 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Secret Santa 2012 - Town Wins!
Replies: 584
Views: 51726

Re: Secret Santa 2012 - D1: The Santa Clause

At the moment the people I've forgotten are in the game are wam, natraj and thdl. Also freezeblade, Adam H and xenomortis have set off minor pings on my scumdar. Sniff... you forgot me? How sad, spirit of togetherness and all :(. Thoughts for thanksgiving morning: ⋅ Boomfrog is right, vot...
by thdl
Wed Nov 21, 2012 10:35 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Secret Santa 2012 - Town Wins!
Replies: 584
Views: 51726

Re: Secret Santa 2012 - D1: The Santa Clause

I submit that any lurking is scummy. True, active lurking is worse than not posting at all, but the same reasoning applies in scum's mind for both acts. Players that have lots of content (or posts even) are much more likely to be viewed as scummy, just because there is far more content to pick apar...
by thdl
Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:11 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Secret Santa 2012 - Town Wins!
Replies: 584
Views: 51726

Re: Secret Santa 2012 - D1: The Santa Clause

Get the second most suspicious player to hammer them, in case it's a jester bomb. I meant to say that the best strategy to deal with CONFIRMED jesters is to ignore them the rest of the game and let them starve, not to do that against SUSPECTED jesters. I don't know what's up with Adam, he seems to ...
by thdl
Tue Nov 20, 2012 5:50 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Secret Santa 2012 - Town Wins!
Replies: 584
Views: 51726

Re: Secret Santa 2012 - D1: The Santa Clause

Scariest possibilities: ⋅ multiple non-town NKs ⋅ non town DKs ⋅ cults I just though of something else that's kind of scary - scum probably have Day-Chat since it is a nightless game. We might be able to find coordination, but that sort of power is almost assuredly mor...
by thdl
Tue Nov 20, 2012 5:31 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Secret Santa 2012 - Town Wins!
Replies: 584
Views: 51726

Re: Secret Santa 2012 - D1: The Santa Clause

What's a DK? I don't think I've heard of that before. A day kill - its rare, and in a nightless game it probably wouldn't be too much different, but its still a possibility. The inability to claim the role you sent in is also nuts. It means that if I sent in, say, a naive cop named Bill, and someon...
by thdl
Tue Nov 20, 2012 4:36 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Secret Santa 2012 - Town Wins!
Replies: 584
Views: 51726

Re: Secret Santa 2012 - D1: The Santa Clause

This is all going to be Chistmas movies... isn't it? Why would you do this to us Snark? ;) Anyway, I believe it is traditional to begin D1 with speculation on the setup. We have 15 players, so I would guess ~4 mafia if they are the only faction. Very likely, there are independents in a game like thi...
by thdl
Mon Nov 19, 2012 6:22 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Secret Santa 2012 - Town Wins!
Replies: 584
Views: 51726

Re: Secret Santa 2012 - Pre-game

"Ohh... there must be some easier way for me to get my wings. "
Confirming
by thdl
Fri Nov 16, 2012 6:22 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Sign-ups (for PLAYERS)
Replies: 7487
Views: 818440

Re: Sign-ups (for PLAYERS)

Secret Santa 2012 Mafia Mod: Snark Speed: Turbo - Pseudo-Nightless (There can be night actions, but they must be sent in advance during the day prior). Size: 10 minimum. 20 max. Bastardry: Little to none Setup: Every player sends in a role, which is then randomly assigned to another player. The mod ...
by thdl
Fri Nov 16, 2012 4:07 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 32753
Views: 2556484

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Random

Spoiler:
Gahh, NK. Here I thought being suspected of being scum would save me. Based on my death, and before I read the spoilers: madge, markstonia are my scum picks with Vector Zero thrown on for seasoning. Also, New User it town based on my investigation (I did not see that one coming.
by thdl
Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:08 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

Why not vote for the person you're the most sure is scum? Seems like distancing to me. Two reasons: 1) markstonia hasn't posted much, so I'd like to hear more analysis and other things from him before I vote. 2) I strongly suspect that either Vytron or SuperTD will be lynched today regardless of my...
by thdl
Mon Nov 12, 2012 7:40 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

Because I know how the second sentence of the last paragraph will be taken: A breadcrumbing cop is more dangersous to scum, but puts themselves in more danger. I don't think the risk is worth the reward, but other do. Scum, however, are going to target the breadcrumbers if they are just as likely t...
by thdl
Mon Nov 12, 2012 7:20 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

Unless cops are more/less likely to be pro-strategy than VT, there is no reason why a mixed strategy should be worse than all or worse than nothing. Interesting perspective. If we take it at 50/50, that gives a large chance that we narrow the possible cop field for nothing. (at 1 cop - 50 percent s...
by thdl
Mon Nov 12, 2012 7:11 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

Unless cops are more/less likely to be pro-strategy than VT, there is no reason why a mixed strategy should be worse than all or worse than nothing. Interesting perspective. If we take it at 50/50, that gives a large chance that we narrow the possible cop field for nothing. (at 1 cop - 50 percent s...
by thdl
Mon Nov 12, 2012 6:49 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

Maybe my intuition on that is wrong, I think that's the case. My top two scum are thdl and New User. Care to explain how I am wrong? I'm really not seeing it. A unilateral decision not to breadcrumb is one thing, but a non trivial number of people choosing to do on their own gives so much info to s...
by thdl
Mon Nov 12, 2012 6:03 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

Votals? Concerning the "If I'm a cop" thing, our opinions seem to be too evenly split for any sdie to pressure the other into doing it. So the people who want to do it (such as me) will do it and the others won't. Simple as that. Still two whole days left. Time for everyone to get a vote ...
by thdl
Mon Nov 12, 2012 4:22 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread
Replies: 32753
Views: 2556484

Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Random: For those playing at home, I'm a cop. Frankly, my scum picks are markstonia, Madge, and USN. runners up: New User, VectorZero, snark. I can not get a read on those last two, it's rather frustrating. I can't decide If I should investigate the scummiest player or the second scummie...
by thdl
Mon Nov 12, 2012 4:17 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

Hi sorry guys, girlfriend wouldn't let me use her iPad to post :/ But i'm back now. Firstly UNVOTE this was simply a joke vote back as STD voted for me. Secondly Nobody to me seems particularly scummy, everyone seems to be jumping on bandwagons, which tbf it is only day 1 and we have nothing to go ...
by thdl
Fri Nov 09, 2012 9:42 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

Formatting is hard, and I rushed out w/o preview: Here's how that last was supposed to look: Are you saying that as town you thought about not putting that and went through with it anyway? I didn't realize that jokes in day one were jumped on so hard. Xeno, 2 votes in the timeframe they came in is w...
by thdl
Fri Nov 09, 2012 7:30 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

Ok, quick post before I go back to writing papers: ⋅  I think I agree that probabilities fail to help us that much - they are not decisive, and nonrandomness fuzzes anything that would be close call. ⋅  Also, my apologies for getting too into them, they are a decent math problem,...
by thdl
Fri Nov 09, 2012 7:06 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

Last post before I multiply any more at night: its not 50/50, but 1/3, =>
N3 becomes larger factoring in other stuff though (likely additional rule outs, etc), and we get
N3~40-45%
by thdl
Fri Nov 09, 2012 7:03 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

EBWOP: I am a failure at notation, and it has brought me shame (the 4 should have been a 6) Probably more correct post: I think those are a little low. Assuming we mislynch today (not improbable), they have ~ 12.5 chance of hitting the cop N1. If we lynch right D2, and do the innocents thing, they w...
by thdl
Fri Nov 09, 2012 6:59 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

Yeah, which lends me to want to support the cop breadcrumbs being for innocents only. The big problem is if mafia claims cop with a guilty to get someone lynched; but then that mafia will get roleblocked and lynched the next day, and we can analyse the meta of people who played with them (see if an...
by thdl
Fri Nov 09, 2012 4:37 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

If/when the cop (if any) dies, we probably get one or two confirmed town out of it. Adding this to the scumhunting we'd end up with something good to base our lynches off of. Don't forget that the cop/s will hopefully investigate the scummiest person/s, so having someone who is accidentally scummy ...
by thdl
Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:42 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

This is what can happen. Cop gets a town result: mafia won't know whether they are telling the truth or lying and if they are NK'd it will be by chance, not because of their result. Cop gets a scum result: they should claim anyway so that there's no chance we mislynch. At that point, if they get NK...
by thdl
Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:18 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

As I believe Madge pointed out, if they kill the cop, we have results to go on, possibly getting a few confirmed towns out of one PR death. While this is true, it merely gives the scum another lever - perhaps they should let the cop live if it suits them. And if we allow a person to claim being rol...
by thdl
Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:01 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

Don't forget, though, we don't necessarily have a cop. We have no way of knowing we DON'T have a cop; only the cop knows whether we have one. (Same goes for doctor, roleblocker, etc). We might even have 2 cops, but there's a decent chance that we are missing any given power role. I don't know how t...
by thdl
Thu Nov 08, 2012 12:13 am UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

More questions for funsies: 1. Should townies ever lie in this game? False-claiming and such. 2. Should we do "If I'm a cop, I targeted X and got Y"? Same for doctor? Same for roleblocker? 3. What should prompt someone to claim? 1) In this game - maybe. I don't like discounting a potentia...
by thdl
Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:21 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

I went through I figured out the probabilities for the scum team power roles Slightly suspicious, just doing scum-spec. I won't vote you for it now though. Fucked up the quote, fixed here. My reasoning was that town spec would help scum more than town (and it's slightly more involved). Can you thin...
by thdl
Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:02 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia - Day One Victim needed

Questions so that the newbies have something to do: 1. What power would you have most wanted as a townie? 2. Would you rather be town or scum? 3. Which player in this game has the coolest username beside yourself? 4. Do you think town or scum will win this game? 5. Should we give the newbs a free p...
by thdl
Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:52 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia

You shouldn't really post content before the game starts.... My apologies, I wasn't aware - I'll remember for the future. I hope that didn't mess anything up too much. Smark. Ha. So, is there a maximum amount of power roles available to each side? Every player could have a power role, right? Also, ...
by thdl
Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:23 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Random Newbie Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win
Replies: 523
Views: 51191

Re: Random Newbie Mafia

Confirming with Role PM. Also MATH: I went through I figured out the probabilities for the scum team power roles: 3 Goons: 21.6% 1 Power, 2 Goons: 43.2% 2 Power, 1 Goon: 28.8% 3 Power: 6.4% fine grained probabilities: - 3 goons: 21.6 - 1RB, 2 goons: 21.6% - 1RC, 2 goons: 21.6% - 2RB, 1 goon: 7.2% - ...
by thdl
Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:41 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Sign-ups (for PLAYERS)
Replies: 7487
Views: 818440

Re: Sign-ups (for PLAYERS)

Random mafia (honestly not copying lataro) There reaches a point where you decide that plans, ideas, thinking things through are all overrated and you realise that you should just give up, accept the chaos and move on. So with that in mind rather than use police work or courts to remove the villages...
by thdl
Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:11 pm UTC
Forum: Mafia
Topic: Gender pronouns for our players!
Replies: 302
Views: 172864

Re: Gender pronouns for our players!

Hello all, I'm new - but I'm looking to start playing once I can catch a newbie game in the sign-ups. I figured here was as good of a place as any to say hello :).

As for pronouns: She/he/any are fine with me.
by thdl
Sun Oct 19, 2008 5:15 pm UTC
Forum: Mathematics
Topic: How do you solve this problem?
Replies: 15
Views: 1697

Re: How do you solve this problem?

We've already had an example that demonstrates that that doesn't work. http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=29228&view=unread#p938345 I think the solution has already been arrived at, and I also think I can prove it. Start off by formalising the problem as follows. There is some natu...
by thdl
Sun Oct 19, 2008 2:26 am UTC
Forum: General
Topic: Who the dickens are you?
Replies: 10922
Views: 2347735

Re: INTRO THREAD THE THIRD

Hi, I'm Thdl. I'm and undergraduate freshman at a university and plan to major in Math/physics. I've always loved math, and I'm looking forward to getting to the courses the force you to get comfortable with the epsilon thingy. I tend to have bursts of loquaciousness (I can't spell) and I mostly lur...
by thdl
Sun Oct 19, 2008 2:22 am UTC
Forum: Mathematics
Topic: How do you solve this problem?
Replies: 15
Views: 1697

Re: How do you solve this problem?

Hi everyone, First time poster, long-time lurker, but Ithought I'd register and give this one a shot - I'll post in the intro thread soon. I guess I'll spoiler it, but I'm not positive I'm right: This strikes me as a center of mass problem, because the total distance traveled is the distance to the ...

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