Analyzing Social Media Data Pertaining to Bitcoin

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fynthase
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Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 5:16 am UTC

Analyzing Social Media Data Pertaining to Bitcoin

Postby fynthase » Mon Jan 16, 2012 11:06 pm UTC

These past two days I started fiddling around with the twitter API and mtgox API, and after some hours I eventually started data-mining both websites, so now every thirty seconds I'm collecting the amount of new tweets containing the string "bitcoin" along with the price of bitcoin.

Now I have all of this data, which I'm pretty hopeful about--my goal is to find some correlation between tweets and price (or some other btc statistic), then set up some automated trading based on that correlation. I figured before I started groping around in the dark about looking for what to look for, I'd ask you guys if you've ever analyzed a data set with any success (of course if there's nothing there, I'm not going to find anything).

I'd also like to hear any opinions on a decent n value. I'm assuming it's going to have to be pretty large since the amount of tweets every 30 seconds usually ranges from 0-3.

Here is the price data I'm collecting:

-total asks
-total bids
-average ask price
-average bid price
-unweighted average ask price
-unweighted average bid price
-low ask price
-high bid price

For anyone who doesn't know what bitcoin is, look into it because you'll be using it in a decade (Oh yes, I'm one of them).

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BotoBoto
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Re: Analyzing Social Media Data Pertaining to Bitcoin

Postby BotoBoto » Tue Jan 17, 2012 10:24 pm UTC

lol, currency not backed up by anything. Sure thing bro.

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WarDaft
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Re: Analyzing Social Media Data Pertaining to Bitcoin

Postby WarDaft » Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:59 am UTC

BotoBoto wrote:lol, currency not backed up by anything. Sure thing bro.


If there's nothing backing it, you don't want to invest in it obviously.

But if people are currently willing to pay some amount for it, then there is a definite value you yourself can assign to it, such that if you can obtain it at that price then your prospects of future resale outweigh the risk of sudden devaluation.
All Shadow priest spells that deal Fire damage now appear green.
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phlip
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Re: Analyzing Social Media Data Pertaining to Bitcoin

Postby phlip » Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:14 pm UTC

This is so very not the forum for a discussion of Bitcoin itself. There's a thread in SB if you want to do that. Let's keep the discussion on the OP's little data analysis project.

Code: Select all

enum ಠ_ಠ {°□°╰=1, °Д°╰, ಠ益ಠ╰};
void ┻━┻︵​╰(ಠ_ಠ ⚠) {exit((int)⚠);}
[he/him/his]

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Steax
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Re: Analyzing Social Media Data Pertaining to Bitcoin

Postby Steax » Fri Jan 20, 2012 10:52 am UTC

It's pretty hard to determine how to analyze data without the data. When I dig into data, I just throw all my data into graphs of different kinds and see if I can see anything interesting. The easiest thing for now is just set your sampling delay to like 1 hour, and map it across a simple line chart over time, and overlay the bitcoin value data over that. You may see a correlation at this point (or you can even find interesting things like how it fluctuates throughout a year, or within 24 hours). If you don't, consider filtering your social data, such as by demographic or how many followers each person has. Also consider filtering out memes, jokes, or retweets.
In Minecraft, I use the username Rirez.

Turtlewing
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Re: Analyzing Social Media Data Pertaining to Bitcoin

Postby Turtlewing » Wed Feb 01, 2012 7:06 pm UTC

http://xkcd.com/592/

Read the hover text. It should apply here.


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