what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

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what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby michael24easilybored » Mon Nov 03, 2008 3:34 pm UTC

Assuming everything goes smoothly, about what time do people think it's likely the result will be declared? The polls on the west coast close at 11pm ET but I have no idea how long they will spend counting the votes before declaring states. Anyone got any educated guesses? I'm wondering if its worth staying up for a bit to see what happens.

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Gunfingers » Mon Nov 03, 2008 3:41 pm UTC

There will be exit polling going on all day, so realistically you'll know pretty much in realtime. Official results will vary by state, but shouldn't take more than a few days.

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby EsotericWombat » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:08 pm UTC

It'll be easy to know if Obama has it in the bag. If he takes Pennsylvania or Florida, it's over. If he takes neither... well then it starts to gets interesting. And I start drinking the harder stuff.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Gunfingers » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:15 pm UTC

Have you been keeping up with the polls? Unless he gets caught molesting children sometime this evening he's got it.

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby 22/7 » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:18 pm UTC

They'll also have to show that he intends to keep the White House well-stocked with children (like Clinton did with plump interns) for this to matter. Also, that he's actually a robot. And that he's not quite as hopeful as all those posters make him out to be.
Totally not a hypothetical...

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby EsotericWombat » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:31 pm UTC

Gunfingers: I've been watching them like a hawk. I've also been paying close attention to voter-suppression efforts by the GOP, which are more than capable of causing results that differ greatly from the polls. And if Obama drops Ohio, his odds go down from 96% to 82%. If he drops PA as well, they go down to 79%. If he drops Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, they stand at 8%.

There have been GOP voter suppression efforts in all three of those states. As well as long ass-lines for early voting. And it's been clearly demonstrated that Democrats get the shaft when the votes get suppressed.

Do I think McCain is going to win? Fuck no. But there is a clear (albeit sharply uphill) path to the White House for him, and the man and his organization are just sick enough to be totally confident.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby segmentation fault » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:32 pm UTC

Gunfingers wrote:Have you been keeping up with the polls? Unless he gets caught molesting children sometime this evening he's got it.


chances are the mccain camp will just say it with no evidence. and people will eat it up.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Gunfingers » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:33 pm UTC

That's right, i forgot, republicans are evil and stole the whitehouse...

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby segmentation fault » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:35 pm UTC

...or they just blatantly lie about their opponent constantly...
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Gunfingers » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:41 pm UTC

I guess if i had to choose between demonizing my political opponents or acknowledging that my political views aren't accepted as scripture by the entire country i'd insist that they lie, steal elections, and are old too. It's just easier.

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby EsotericWombat » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:57 pm UTC

and I'm sure that the leak about Obama's half-aunt from someone employed under Homeland Security was a coincidence. As well as the pending "investigation" into ACORN by the feds, which has prevented them from registering new voters despite no wrongdoing by the organization itself-- the reason the feds knew about the fraudulent registrations is because ACORN flagged them-- And I'm also sure that the effort to purge 200,000 names from the roll by GOP operatives in Ohio wasn't politically motivated either. And I'm also sure that the quote from an anonymous McCain operative that Krist's decision to extend early voting in Florida had "blown" the state for McCain was either taken out of context or made up.

And I'm sure that all of thisis just Wikipedia's liberal bias

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby segmentation fault » Mon Nov 03, 2008 5:11 pm UTC

Gunfingers wrote:I guess if i had to choose between demonizing my political opponents or acknowledging that my political views aren't accepted as scripture by the entire country i'd insist that they lie, steal elections, and are old too. It's just easier.


so youre saying mccains campaign is 100% clean and im the dirty one for calling him out on supposedly nonexistant bullshit? :roll:
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Gunfingers » Mon Nov 03, 2008 6:27 pm UTC

I'm saying trying to demonize one side is retarded. If i went to a conservative forum* i'd find threads about how evil the obama campaign is and their attempts to make McCain look bad, maybe some stuff about how democrats try to steal elections. I'm saying get over yourself.


*Which, by the way, you should do. Sitting around having a liberal circle jerk isn't going to expose you to new ideas, it'll just reinforce your biases. Why do you think i come here?

Edit: On reread this came out a lot more harshly than intended. Imagine i said it with a smile or something.

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Indon » Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:06 pm UTC

Well, there's one thing about demonizing opponents, and then there's what's actually going on.

The Republican party, collectively, hasn't exactly done very well on the whole integrity thing the past decade or so, to include the McCain campaign. This includes possible politically motivated attempts to disenfranchise potential voters.

I'm not sure it's really demonizing when the horns and hooves are already there. The only thing the McCain campaign needs left is Tim Curry as a spokesperson.

Edit: I guess since it's so related, I should make my feelings known. I basically figure the Democrats will win short of widespread fraud, but I'm just paranoid enough to consider that to be a possibility.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby cwoodin » Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:21 pm UTC

There's also the closet racist effect - to be honest, I don't think Obama has it nearly in the bag as current polling says.

That being said, I'd guess he still takes it.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby frezik » Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:33 pm UTC

Gunfingers wrote:I'm saying trying to demonize one side is retarded. If i went to a conservative forum* i'd find threads about how evil the obama campaign is and their attempts to make McCain look bad, maybe some stuff about how democrats try to steal elections. I'm saying get over yourself.


I've try to read Free Republic every once in a while. It usually ends in screaming. Then again, I often feel the same about DailyKos. Any suggestions on a site that isn't populated by a lunitic fringe? (I leave open the possibility that the Republican party is almost entirely lunitic fringe at this point, and thus no such site exists).

As for the OP's question, nearly everything west of the Mississippi is either solidly locked in (California, Texas) or too small to matter (almost everything else). Colorado is the only major state over that way that's big enough to matter and is currently a tossup, but it's probably irrelevent compared to the swing states in the east.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby leaf » Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:40 pm UTC

Actually, many states have held early voting this year -- my mother is an election official in NC, one of the "swing states". And with the way they do polls now, it would take a massive surprise for the vote to turn out much differently than predicted.

However, we do have a recent history of vote suppression, votes "lost", and just generally uncounted. I have seen incompetence on the side of the democrats, and underhanded tactics on the part of the republicans. I was a history major, and I have *long* lamented our nation's general ignoring of the advice George Washington gave, which was to absolutely *not* allow a two-party system.

I am not demonizing anyone, nor do I want to get into an argument about "the other side sucks". I am cynical, but I am cautiously hopeful that things might change in this country after tomorrow.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby GreaterSteven » Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:46 pm UTC

Gunfingers wrote:I'm saying trying to demonize one side is retarded. If i went to a conservative forum* i'd find threads about how evil the obama campaign is and their attempts to make McCain look bad, maybe some stuff about how democrats try to steal elections. I'm saying get over yourself.


*Which, by the way, you should do. Sitting around having a liberal circle jerk isn't going to expose you to new ideas, it'll just reinforce your biases. Why do you think i come here?

Edit: On reread this came out a lot more harshly than intended. Imagine i said it with a smile or something.



That's why I watch Fox News. I am more susceptible to left bias, so I watch the right biased shows. Easier for me to catch the bullshit while still providing some level of truth.

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Vaniver » Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:53 pm UTC

Wednesday morning.

... what? I like actually counting votes, not predicting what vote counts will be from polls.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Princess Marzipan » Mon Nov 03, 2008 8:06 pm UTC

Sigh.

Not that this thread wasn't fun to read, but...seriously, this is neither News nor an Article.

What is up with everyone posting threads for general discussion here? Can we, like, NOT have people doing that?
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby frezik » Mon Nov 03, 2008 8:14 pm UTC

leaf wrote:However, we do have a recent history of vote suppression, votes "lost", and just generally uncounted.


In general, various forms of voting fraud can only swing the vote by a few percentage points. Any more than that gets a lot of attention and people end up in jail. If it stays within that range, then it can just be lost in the noise. A few points is enough to swing very close elections, like FL and OH in 2000/2004, respectively, but most elections aren't that close.

I have seen incompetence on the side of the democrats, and underhanded tactics on the part of the republicans. I was a history major, and I have *long* lamented our nation's general ignoring of the advice George Washington gave, which was to absolutely *not* allow a two-party system.


IIRC, he was specifically against political parties in general, rather than two parties specifically. Unfortunately, plurality voting inheirently leads to two candidates (since a third candidate just takes votes away from one side, like Roosevelt/Taft/Wilson in 1912), though I doubt Political Science was developed enough to recognize this in Washington's time.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby seladore » Mon Nov 03, 2008 8:29 pm UTC

cwoodin wrote:There's also the closet racist effect - to be honest, I don't think Obama has it nearly in the bag as current polling says.

That being said, I'd guess he still takes it.


Actually, the 'Bradley effect' hasn't had an effect on results for about 15 years (according to the guy at 538.com), so I'm not too worried about this.

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby 22/7 » Mon Nov 03, 2008 8:43 pm UTC

Can that accurately be applied to the first non-white candidate to actually have a reasonable chance at winning the White House?
Totally not a hypothetical...

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Darkscull » Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:02 pm UTC

I'm gonna be up all night watching this in the UK (one of the campus bars is being very nice and staying open especially for it).

It will be literally all night though, looking to finish at 0600GMT (which is 0100EST), according to this article:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americ ... 705795.stm

The only polls still open after 11pm EST are Alaska's, so about 2330-0000 EST we should know pretty accurately who's won, since Alaska is looking to stay red I think.

If any of that is wrong, please say so.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby seladore » Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:07 pm UTC

22/7 wrote:Can that accurately be applied to the first non-white candidate to actually have a reasonable chance at winning the White House?


Maybe not, I don't know under what circumstances it was decided that it no longer applied. This election is a good way to test it, I guess.

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby stapleface » Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:38 pm UTC

The Bradley effect, from what I've read, isn't likely to play a major role. In whatever election Bradley stood in (I forget), he was the more qualified and more experienced candidate. When asked who they were going to vote for, a lot of people couldn't come up with a good reason for voting for the white guy, so they just lied and said they were voting for Bradley. In this election there are lots of valid reasons for why you'd want to vote for McCain, so people are way more likely to tell the truth when polled, even if the real reason is that they think Obama is a terrorist/muslim/looking for where the white women are at.

Also, exit polls are RUBBISH.

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby frezik » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:22 am UTC

stapleface wrote:Also, exit polls are RUBBISH.


Really? What makes you say that?

Exit polls have found election fraud before, such as the 2004 Ukrainian Presidential Election. I'm also inclined to believe that the initial 2004 US results for Ohio were correct and the media orginizations shrugged it off.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby ++$_ » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:47 am UTC

Exit polls do seem to give a slight edge to the Democratic candidate, at least these days. This isn't (necessarily) because the GOP is evil and steals the election. It's because Democrats are a bit more likely to be willing to divulge their vote to an exit pollster, according to surveys. Of course, these surveys are in and of themselves suspect, because they are conducted via telephone, and some people don't answer the telephone.

This year, the media outlets should be aware of this, and use the exit poll data a bit more cautiously.

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby cwoodin » Tue Nov 04, 2008 5:07 am UTC

seladore wrote:
cwoodin wrote:There's also the closet racist effect - to be honest, I don't think Obama has it nearly in the bag as current polling says.

That being said, I'd guess he still takes it.
Actually, the 'Bradley effect' hasn't had an effect on results for about 15 years (according to the guy at 538.com), so I'm not too worried about this.
Basically, I agree with what 22/7 said on the presidency being different from a governor's race.

I've read some interesting articles about Obama representing a real paradigm shift for America - acknowledging the shift from a white, powerful, majority to essentially a minority-majority country. The idea is that this fear of a real change - putting a face on the demographics of America - is what will bring out a Bradley effect of sorts in older voters who may normally vote Democrat to swing to the GOP this time around in an attempt (conscious or otherwise) to put off this racial shift as long as possible.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby MartianInvader » Tue Nov 04, 2008 5:35 am UTC

I'd say it IS still possible for McCain to win.

If he takes Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, then the election is his. The machines in Florida already have reports of switching votes from Obama to McCain. Officials claim they need to be recalibrated, which would leave them pretty vulnerable to tampering by whoever does the recalibrating.

If we have a repeat of 2004 in Ohio, that is, 3-hour lines to vote in the cities, machines breaking down, etc... well, not everyone has 3 hours to spare on a workday, and the vote might end up a lot different than the polls.

I haven't heard much about Pennsylvania, but it's certainly possible we'll see some shenanigans there too.

Now I admit, that's a lot of "if"s. I do think it's more likely that Obama will win, but I'm still going to be biting my nails until it's over.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby sophyturtle » Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:34 pm UTC

Can it be over now? It seems really hard to focus and I would like to be able to know if I should start a militia or not.
At least this makes em feel a little better about the results. At least this time it there is some protection from vote stealing.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Okita » Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:51 pm UTC

MartianInvader wrote:I'd say it IS still possible for McCain to win.

If he takes Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, then the election is his. The machines in Florida already have reports of switching votes from Obama to McCain. Officials claim they need to be recalibrated, which would leave them pretty vulnerable to tampering by whoever does the recalibrating.

If we have a repeat of 2004 in Ohio, that is, 3-hour lines to vote in the cities, machines breaking down, etc... well, not everyone has 3 hours to spare on a workday, and the vote might end up a lot different than the polls.

I haven't heard much about Pennsylvania, but it's certainly possible we'll see some shenanigans there too.

Now I admit, that's a lot of "if"s. I do think it's more likely that Obama will win, but I'm still going to be biting my nails until it's over.


Just to switch it back to the OP, here's how your watching schedule should probably look like if you are watching the election.

7:00 pm (all times EST)
The first polls close. Key state to watch probably is Virginia if Obama flips it.
8:00 pm
Most of the Eastern Seaboard is done. That's Florida and Pennsylvania. If Obama has won both those states, then it's pretty much over. If it isn't then it means you have to keep watching.
9:00 pm
By this time, you've got almost all of the polls having closed with most likely a clear victor (unless something interesting is occurring in which case I guess we would focus on New Mexico or Colorado at this point).

Anyway, if you wanted to find out for sure, I would start watching around 8:00 - 8:30 depending on how fast each state can report in.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Andrew » Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:57 pm UTC

frezik wrote:
stapleface wrote:Also, exit polls are RUBBISH.


Really? What makes you say that?


538 thinks they're a bit rubbish

In this case, the only way McCain can win is if all the polling done so far is wrong. I don't really see how conducting another poll is going to shed a lot of light on that.

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Lord Aurora » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:23 pm UTC

Andrew wrote:In this case, the only way McCain can win is if all the polling done so far is wrong. I don't really see how conducting another poll is going to shed a lot of light on that.


This may very well be the case, actually.

Historically and statistically, a Democrat has to be up by about 10 points in the polls in order to win on election day. This is not due to horrible suppression tactics by the GOP, or to anything nefarious at all. This is because STATISTICALLY the polls will favor the Democrats. Also, there is evidence that people are saying they will vote for Obama even though they're not going to---just so they don't sound racist to the pollster. I don't think McCain is going to win, but I cannot even begin to believe it's going to be an Obama landslide. I'm pretty sure Obama is ahead in some of the polls by the same margin Kerry was ahead in some of the polls last time. And we all know how that turned out.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby EsotericWombat » Tue Nov 04, 2008 5:05 pm UTC

Actually, there is absolutely fucking NO evidence that the Bradley effect has applied to or will apply to Obama. There's been significant debate as to whether it even happened to Bradley. One theory chalks it up to voter suppression efforts.

Furthermore, the GOP has made voter suppression a weapon in elections since the Reagan era, so I take issue with the notion that early polling favoring Democrats doesn't have anything to do with nefarious tactics. The more people vote, the more likely it is for Democrats to win.

Paul Weyrich, founder of the Heritage Foundation wrote:I don't want everybody to vote. Elections are not won by a majority of the people. They never have been from the beginning of our country and they are not now. As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down.


This was at a 1980 training session for fifteen thousand conservative preachers in Dallas. This isn't to say that this is where it began-- the tactic dates back to Jim Crow. But it has ALWAYS favored the same people (even though at the time many of them were Dixiecrats, they've all since switched teams).

Anyway, all of this is to say that there's nothing to suggest that this disparity isn't a direct result of the GOP using voting rolls as a political football. They're a vile, corrupt organization and everyone involved with this particular facet of their agenda ought to be shot in the mouth and buried in a shallow grave by the railroad tracks.
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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby 22/7 » Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:22 pm UTC

Before we fly off the handle too awful much here, let's take a look at this statement.
EsotericWombat wrote:The more people vote, the more likely it is for Democrats to win.
Ok, now let's think about the people who always vote (old people) and those that have historically terrible voting records (young people). Is it possible that the Republicans have a larger base of voters that always vote (the old people we talked about a minute ago) than the Democrats do and in order for the Democrats to overcome that deficit they need those people who generally can't be buggered to get registered and go vote to actually get up and do it?

Now, this is really more of a guess than anything else, but EW, you seem to be categorically denying the possibility that a Republican campaign has ever won an election without the most nefarious of impropriety and have yet to (at least from what I've seen) concede the possibility that the Democrats could ever engage in such despicable tactics.
Totally not a hypothetical...

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Surgery » Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:50 pm UTC

so ... wondering. to those who believe as such, why is it that less people voting is good for republicans and not democrats?

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Gunfingers » Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:57 pm UTC

It's not so much that less is better for the republicans as that the voting base that generally support republicans always vote. It's not some crazy conspiracy by the Republicans, they're just supported by the people who are more likely to vote. See Improper Fraction Pi's post right above yours for an example.

From what i've read, this election has seen unprecedented voter turnout, which favors democrats.

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Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby segmentation fault » Tue Nov 04, 2008 7:15 pm UTC

so i voted with an electronic machine, and there was an option to write in a candidate on a keyboard. all i could think of was "i wonder if i can cause a buffer overflow"
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Location: Western New York

Re: what time should we expect a result on tuesday?

Postby Surgery » Tue Nov 04, 2008 7:23 pm UTC

Gunfingers wrote:It's not so much that less is better for the republicans as that the voting base that generally support republicans always vote. It's not some crazy conspiracy by the Republicans, they're just supported by the people who are more likely to vote. See Improper Fraction Pi's post right above yours for an example.

From what i've read, this election has seen unprecedented voter turnout, which favors democrats.


so, traditionally democrats are lazy? I kid, I kid :)

The machine at my polling place looked like some kind of steam-punk device. It even had big levers and mechanical knife switches that went "ka-chunk! sssshhhing!"

I think whoever wins it'll be an interesting four years. It makes me proud to see people of both sides trying to make this an unfair election :roll:


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