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Probability

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:00 am UTC
by Gelsamel
I always sucked at probability, probably the subject in math I hate the most.

So if anyone can figure out the answer to this question I'd be greatly obliged.

What is the probability of finding someone who is scientific minded and intelligent person who

-Loves metal music
-Hates stupid things/people, pseudoscience and engrish
-Hates extreme open-mindedness
-Is good at computer games
-And most importantly is a decent looking girl?

In my lifetime.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:55 am UTC
by Frankeinstein
DATA INSUFFICIENT

INPUT MORE DATA

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:05 am UTC
by Gelsamel
Frankeinstein wrote:DATA INSUFFICIENT

INPUT MORE DATA


I tried with a calculator too, it didn't work D:

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 12:08 pm UTC
by holyyakker
Serious related question:

A worksheet has 8 problems. Each problem has 16 correct answers.

What is the probability that two students who worked independently on the worksheet would choose the same answers for 5 of the 8 problems?

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 12:33 pm UTC
by Gelsamel
holyyakker wrote:Serious related question


I was being serious...

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 12:48 pm UTC
by Frankeinstein
The problem is that you don't provide any numbers or statistics. So INSUFFICIENT DATA.

Recommended reading: http://www.nothingisreal.com/girlfriend/

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 12:55 pm UTC
by Gelsamel
Frankeinstein wrote:The problem is that you don't provide any numbers or statistics. So INSUFFICIENT DATA.

Recommended reading: http://www.nothingisreal.com/girlfriend/


Those statistics are harsh, however I'm not really asking why I don't have a girlfriend or not.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 12:56 pm UTC
by Frankeinstein
The study is a bit old and inconclusive though, it fails to take some very important matters into consideration. Like the fact that people tend to voluntarily divide into social groups which commonly result in pairings.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 1:05 pm UTC
by Frankeinstein
Ok ok. Let's look at it. Without numbers it isn't probability though, it's speculation.

Gelsamel wrote:-Loves metal music

Plenty of those around. Love is a pretty strong word though, but still you could have an influence on that later on.

-Hates stupid things/people, pseudoscience and engrish

Too subjective, everyone "hates stupid things". Only one of these that is of any use is the engrish-hate. Hate is a pretty strong word too, it's kind of limiting. I don't think most people care too much about engrish.

-Hates extreme open-mindedness

Pretty weird trait.

-Is good at computer games

Training.
-And most importantly is a decent looking girl?

Plastic surgery.
-In my lifetime

How long do you plan on living?

You see what I mean? INSUFFICIENT DATA.

The final answer is: Life is a function. The more you give, the more you get. You define your own level of participation. So if you really try to find someone you'll be likely to succeed, though your quests... *ahem* objectives may change over time.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 1:14 pm UTC
by Gelsamel
Hates is too strong a word.

To define it more;

Does not buy into psuedoscience, if she detests it then that is good too =p.

Also destests the use of Engrish (being 'pl0x' etc.) bad grammar and spelling online.

Detests extreme open-mindedness (Never had a professor who was so open-minded and would accept any bullshit made up theory that the guy in the who pretends to be smart makes up?) -- Almost synonomous with gullible, but not quite.

With "Is good at computer games" there is the tacit "has to like computer games" as well in there, and some people can just never get good.

And in my honest opinion plastic surgery isn't going to solve anything, I'd rather have natural looks. And I'm not asking for much in this department, just 'decent'.

The hardest bit to get would probably be the first bit.
"Scientific minded and intelligent"

Maybe I'm setting the bar too high.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 1:19 pm UTC
by Sitnaltax
...And the fact that accodring to that paper, it's impossible to determine whether a girl is attractive, smart, or TAKEN before going on a date with her. It's certainly a strong argument against going on 100% completely blind dates, but: duh? Of course, this is not unexpected from the Annals of Improbable Research.

Also, as Frankeinstein noted, the way people self-select into social groups makes it easier for people with similar traits and interests to find one another. This tendency has certainly saved my bacon, because I've had ill luck with the population at large (even with reason to believe we had something in common) but good luck in my social circles.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 1:45 pm UTC
by myoumyouou
Loves metal music: 50% (either she does, or she doesn't)
-Hates stupid things/people, pseudoscience and engrish: 50% (either she does, or she doesn't)
-Hates extreme open-mindedness: 50% (either she does, or she doesn't)
-Is good at computer games: 50% (either she is, or she isn't)
-And most importantly is a decent looking girl: 50% (either she is, or she isn't)

so essentially, its 0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5 and another 0.5 for if she likes you. so thats, (0.5)^6

so yeah. thats the probability.

Re: Probability

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 2:07 pm UTC
by rachel
Gelsamel wrote:-Loves metal music
-Hates stupid things/people, pseudoscience and engrish
-Hates extreme open-mindedness
-Is good at computer games
-And most importantly is a decent looking girl?

In my lifetime.


I love how her being a decent looking girl is most important. Your shallow-ness aside, whether you figure the probability on this one out or not, that might not help you much. Chances are you will have to go out and socialize and try to find a girl like that. You could also just sit around and wait for her to find you, but that hardly ever happens. Or you could wait for someone who meets all of your criteria to stumble upon this board, read this post and fall madly in love with you. Out of all three of your options, I'm betting number one is going to work best. Good luck with that.

Re: Probability

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 2:10 pm UTC
by Gelsamel
rachel wrote:
Gelsamel wrote:-Loves metal music
-Hates stupid things/people, pseudoscience and engrish
-Hates extreme open-mindedness
-Is good at computer games
-And most importantly is a decent looking girl?

In my lifetime.


I love how her being a decent looking girl is most important. Your shallow-ness aside, whether you figure the probability on this one out or not, that might not help you much. Chances are you will have to go out and socialize and try to find a girl like that. You could also just sit around and wait for her to find you, but that hardly ever happens. Or you could wait for someone who meets all of your criteria to stumble upon this board, read this post and fall madly in love with you. Out of all three of your options, I'm betting number one is going to work best. Good luck with that.


Funny how most disagreances arise from problems in definition. Your definition of "decent" and mine may vary extremely.

Re: Probability

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 2:13 pm UTC
by rachel
Gelsamel wrote:
rachel wrote:
Gelsamel wrote:-Loves metal music
-Hates stupid things/people, pseudoscience and engrish
-Hates extreme open-mindedness
-Is good at computer games
-And most importantly is a decent looking girl?

In my lifetime.


I love how her being a decent looking girl is most important. Your shallow-ness aside, whether you figure the probability on this one out or not, that might not help you much. Chances are you will have to go out and socialize and try to find a girl like that. You could also just sit around and wait for her to find you, but that hardly ever happens. Or you could wait for someone who meets all of your criteria to stumble upon this board, read this post and fall madly in love with you. Out of all three of your options, I'm betting number one is going to work best. Good luck with that.


Funny how most disagreances arise from problems in definition. Your definition of "decent" and mine may vary extremely.


Regardless of the differences in our definitions of the word 'decent' I find it kind of shallow that this seems to be the most important thing to you. That's only an assumption, but I'm assuming that because you put that it was most important. Granted, there is always some reliance on the physical aspect, especially when you first meet someone, but I still don't think it should be most important. But to each his (or her) own, I suppose.

Re: Probability

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 2:18 pm UTC
by Gelsamel
rachel wrote:
Gelsamel wrote:
rachel wrote:
Gelsamel wrote:-Loves metal music
-Hates stupid things/people, pseudoscience and engrish
-Hates extreme open-mindedness
-Is good at computer games
-And most importantly is a decent looking girl?

In my lifetime.


I love how her being a decent looking girl is most important. Your shallow-ness aside, whether you figure the probability on this one out or not, that might not help you much. Chances are you will have to go out and socialize and try to find a girl like that. You could also just sit around and wait for her to find you, but that hardly ever happens. Or you could wait for someone who meets all of your criteria to stumble upon this board, read this post and fall madly in love with you. Out of all three of your options, I'm betting number one is going to work best. Good luck with that.


Funny how most disagreances arise from problems in definition. Your definition of "decent" and mine may vary extremely.


Regardless of the differences in our definitions of the word 'decent' I find it kind of shallow that this seems to be the most important thing to you. That's only an assumption, but I'm assuming that because you put that it was most important. Granted, there is always some reliance on the physical aspect, especially when you first meet someone, but I still don't think it should be most important. But to each his (or her) own, I suppose.


I label it most important because even if the person likes all of the above if I am not physically attracted to them then there is nothing.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 2:27 pm UTC
by Shoofle
First of all, what if they are not attracted to you? Appearance shouldn't be such an important quality, I think.

Second of all, I think you are misusing the term "open-minded." Open-mindedness means being open to consideration of other points of view, giving them some thought rather than dismissing them out of hand. Open-mindedness pretty much can't be a bad thing - it's only bad when you don't fully think about things or when you are gullible. I think you mean gullible.

At least, you shouldn't want someone who hates open-mindedness.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 4:52 pm UTC
by fjafjan
Eh i think having set ideals is stupid, its like "I really like you, but you listne to hip hop .. i don't know .. this isn't working out"

If you love someone you love them and at that point decide wether they suck or not.
Or atleast so is my philosophy :P

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 5:07 pm UTC
by Belial
I tend to agree with fjafjan. Shared interests are important and all, but really it's going to be their personality (and apparently their looks) that makes or breaks it for you, whether you realize that now or not.

Shared *dislikes* are worth next-to-nothing in the match-making process. You can have absolutely no interest, or even dislike, something that she likes, and it ultimately won't matter, because you don't have to participate in it.

Furthermore, being tolerant of a girl's interests and such that you don't necessarily share is likely to get you much more leeway in interests that *she* may not necessarily share, and I can say with some certainty that there will be several of those.

In conclusion, you're going about this *all wrong*. Don't make a list of traits that your mate *must satisfy*. Just go out and talk to girls. Find one you like. Not one that satisfies your requirements, one that makes you all fluttery in your innards, and that you enjoy talking to. If she's interested, date her until you can see if it's going to work. If necessary, break up with her and find a new one. But for the love of the gods, don't break out a bloody checklist.

Also, you're using the word "Engrish" wrong. What you're describing (bad grammar and spelling online) is netspeak and/or leet-speak. "Engrish" is a slang term for heavily japanese-accented english, often with random japanese words thrown in, usually out of habit or because the speaker doesn't know the english equivelent. It fulfills the same slang purpose that "Spanglish" and "Franglish" do for Spanish and English and French and English, respectively. Engrish also includes various humorous mistranslations of japanese into English, often witnessed on signs and fliers in Japan.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 5:51 pm UTC
by Frankeinstein
myoumyouou wrote:so essentially, its 0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5 and another 0.5 for if she likes you. so thats, (0.5)^6

so yeah. thats the probability.

It isn't applicable to this real-life situation. It's a gross simplification.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:43 pm UTC
by rachel
Belial wrote:Furthermore, being tolerant of a girl's interests and such that you don't necessarily share is likely to get you much more leeway in interests that *she* may not necessarily share, and I can say with some certainty that there will be several of those.

In conclusion, you're going about this *all wrong*. Don't make a list of traits that your mate *must satisfy*. Just go out and talk to girls. Find one you like. Not one that satisfies your requirements, one that makes you all fluttery in your innards, and that you enjoy talking to. If she's interested, date her until you can see if it's going to work. If necessary, break up with her and find a new one. But for the love of the gods, don't break out a bloody checklist.


You are quite possibly the only guy (that I know of) that's actually been right about all of that. Way to go. That does not say much for the guys I know, which is kind of sad. You should listen to him, Gelsamel.

Re: Probability

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:45 pm UTC
by rlo
Gelsamel wrote:What is the probability of finding someone who is scientific minded and intelligent person who

-Loves metal music
-Hates stupid things/people, pseudoscience and engrish
-Hates extreme open-mindedness
-Is good at computer games
-And most importantly is a decent looking girl?

In my lifetime.


Chances of finding a woman who meets all those criteria: pretty darn small.

Chances of your criteria changing and broadening as you get older: extremely high!

So overall, I like your chances.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:46 pm UTC
by fjafjan
Frankeinstein wrote:
myoumyouou wrote:so essentially, its 0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5 and another 0.5 for if she likes you. so thats, (0.5)^6

so yeah. thats the probability.

It isn't applicable to this real-life situation. It's a gross simplification.


I think you fail at sarcasm.. bleh, non obvious internet sarcasm is too hard these days!

"what are the odds of me dying this instant? either i do or I dont, 50%!" :D

(yes we are ALL lucky bastards, and some of you people are claiming there is no god when by all logic we should all be DEAD! :P)

rachel wrote:
Belial wrote:Furthermore, being tolerant of a girl's interests and such that you don't necessarily share is likely to get you much more leeway in interests that *she* may not necessarily share, and I can say with some certainty that there will be several of those.

In conclusion, you're going about this *all wrong*. Don't make a list of traits that your mate *must satisfy*. Just go out and talk to girls. Find one you like. Not one that satisfies your requirements, one that makes you all fluttery in your innards, and that you enjoy talking to. If she's interested, date her until you can see if it's going to work. If necessary, break up with her and find a new one. But for the love of the gods, don't break out a bloody checklist.


You are quite possibly the only guy (that I know of) that's actually been right about all of that. Way to go. That does not say much for the guys I know, which is kind of sad. You should listen to him, Gelsamel.


Sniff, me gets no cred :P

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:25 pm UTC
by Sitnaltax
"Hates extreme open-mindedness": This might be better phrased "is a fierce skeptic." If you don't actually demand that your SO be particuarly fiery about it, "has skeptical tendencies" would suffice. For example, I consider myself very skeptical, but I have better things to do with my energy than hate credulous people.

Likewise, who has time to "hate engrish?" Hopefully the girls you like are too busy in work or class or whatever to spend much time fuming over people that use bad grammar. "Likes reading" or "Likes writing" opens the door to many more people, and few people who actually like reading or writing abuse the language.

As for shared interests, you obviously have to have something to do together, but a personality match counts for a lot. My GF isn't into metal--who cares? When there's a good show in town, I can go with my guy friends. Most people enjoy some kind of computer games, so that's not rare at all, but brace yourself (oh no!) for the possibility that you might have to pick up a copy of The Sims, Puzzle Pirates, or something.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:33 pm UTC
by Sitnaltax
In another topic, attractiveness: My belief on this is that you're allowed to be attracted or not attracted to anyone you want. You can be into men or women or tall people or short people or blond people or one-armed people or people with glasses or without glasses or whatever you want. BUT, if you start turning down potential boyfriends/girlfriends because of appearance, you're not allowed to complain about being single.

I don't think expressing these preferences makes you shallow, but it's good courtesy to not mention them. You're supposed to say "I don't think of XXX that way", "I don't get the right vibe from XXX", or somesuch.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:40 pm UTC
by Gelsamel
The funniest part is this has blossomed into a full blown serious conversation.


~Gelsamel; It was a joke.

Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:40 pm UTC
by Frankeinstein
fjafjan wrote:I think you fail at sarcasm.. bleh, non obvious internet sarcasm is too hard these days!

Look at me. I'm being super serious. No really, look at me
<--
I'm serious.

Re: Probability

Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:04 am UTC
by Peshmerga
Gelsamel wrote:I always sucked at probability, probably the subject in math I hate the most.

So if anyone can figure out the answer to this question I'd be greatly obliged.

What is the probability of finding someone who is scientific minded and intelligent person who

-Loves metal music
-Hates stupid things/people, pseudoscience and engrish
-Hates extreme open-mindedness
-Is good at computer games
-And most importantly is a decent looking girl?

In my lifetime.


slim:nill

edit - I suggest just going with the "Is good at computer games" attribute. The rest would be considered bonuses I think.

Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:32 am UTC
by rlo
Gelsamel wrote:It was a joke.


And we were supposed to know your question was a joke because... ???

Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:10 am UTC
by Belial
In another topic, attractiveness: My belief on this is that you're allowed to be attracted or not attracted to anyone you want. You can be into men or women or tall people or short people or blond people or one-armed people or people with glasses or without glasses or whatever you want. BUT, if you start turning down potential boyfriends/girlfriends because of appearance, you're not allowed to complain about being single.


Yes. Please. Can we establish this as a rule of the universe?

Hell, can we establish "No complaining about being single" as a rule of the universe? If you can't stand being by yourself, you have no business dragging someone else into your neurotic little world...

Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:15 am UTC
by Belial
Gelsamel wrote:I was being serious...


Gelsamel wrote:It was a joke.


ERROR!

Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:58 am UTC
by Gelsamel
Belial wrote:
Gelsamel wrote:I was being serious...


Gelsamel wrote:It was a joke.


ERROR!


ERROR!

If I say "I am a god" then say "I am telling the truth" then after a while I say "I was joking" does that make the third statement false?

Edit:

rlo wrote:
Gelsamel wrote:It was a joke.


And we were supposed to know your question was a joke because... ???


Actually now that I think about it joke was a bad word, more like "not to be taken seriously". I thought the give away was me talking about not being good at probability and then asking you guys to figure out the probability of something not only totally subjective, but with no numbers!

And my 2nd post was a hint as well.. but what ever...

~Gelsamel

Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:21 am UTC
by kira
Let this be a lesson to you, Gelsamel. We are serious folk around here. You give us a problem, we'll try to solve it!

And if you sound lame, we'll get on your case. :D

Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:50 am UTC
by holyyakker
What about my problem? Anyone have an answer for me yet?

Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:55 am UTC
by Gelsamel
holyyakker wrote:What about my problem? Anyone have an answer for me yet?


Haha, you got totally ignored there.

/pat.

Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:56 am UTC
by holyyakker
*glare* Don't make me sell you all out to the velociraptors.

Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:05 pm UTC
by Marlayna
Hey, since we're talking romance and all, what is the probability that the person you fall in love with will also fall in love with you?

Let's assume two ways of falling in love:

a) At first sight
b) Slowly, when you really get to know someone.

Assume you just fell in love at first sight. What is the probability that that person will fall in love with you too? To simplify things, you're both heterosexual/homosexual.

Assume he/she didn't fall in love at first sight (bummer), and that you're willing to use the optimal strategy to get close to him/her (whatever that may be). What's the probability he/she will fall in you? What's the probability he/she will fall in love with someone else? (You can't be in love with two people at the same time.)

This isn't just a probability problem, it's more about pinning down all of the factors involved.

Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:10 pm UTC
by Gelsamel
Unfortunately the "optimal" strategy could likely be purporting yourself as being something you're not.

(Lets apply game theory to love, fun :D)

Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:20 pm UTC
by myoumyouou
Frankeinstein wrote:
myoumyouou wrote:so essentially, its 0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5 and another 0.5 for if she likes you. so thats, (0.5)^6

so yeah. thats the probability.

It isn't applicable to this real-life situation. It's a gross simplification.


gross simplification my arse. maybe thats why i failed maths, answering all probability questions as 0.5
oh well. in some ways its an accurate answer.

Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:43 pm UTC
by Sitnaltax
I am hoping to win the lottery and be elected Pope today. Clearly either will happen or it won't, so my odds are (0.5)^2 or 25%. I'm cautiously optimistic and will let y'all know how it goes this evening.