Anti-Gambler's Fallacy

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RedNifre
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2008 1:10 am UTC

Re: Anti-Gambler's Fallacy

Postby RedNifre » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:51 am UTC

P.S.:

In my previous post I said you could lower your certainty by taking your brain integrity into account. I just noticed that whether or not you can do this depends on how that certainty got into your brain:
  • If somebody put it into your brain but didn't change your brain in any other way you can get rid of that belief by considering your brain integrity
  • If somebody burnt that certainty into your brain in such a way that you can't change it then it's indistinguishable from the abstract logic puzzle situation and you should keep playing... at least I don't see any way you could justify a lobotomy to remove an absolute truth from your brain... maybe I'm missing something.

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Vytron
Posts: 429
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

Re: Anti-Gambler's Fallacy

Postby Vytron » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:56 am UTC

RedNifre wrote:Why would that be an impossible situation? If I were in that situation I would just think "What have I done? That's so not like me, I would have stopped after 10 losses (arbitrary estimate, I would not have calculated and compared the odds of my brain working to number of losses). Something is wrong with me, I should stop immediately and get myself checked.".


No, I think you would refuse to believe that you did it before thinking that you did it because something was wrong with you.

DrZiro
Posts: 132
Joined: Mon Feb 09, 2009 3:51 pm UTC

Re: Anti-Gambler's Fallacy

Postby DrZiro » Fri Nov 27, 2015 2:08 am UTC

Well, logically, of course you'd keep playing - that is, you wouldn't stop specifically because things seem to be going badly, but of course logic can't tell us when to actually stop, unless you run out of money.

And just as obviously, you wouldn't keep going that long if it happened in real life. A couple of dozen throws should be enough to convince yourself that you're probably being cheated. Yes, getting 8000 in a row is possible, but getting cheated is also possible, and much more likely.

Also worth noting, just to be obnoxious - after 8000 throws you'd be getting pretty tired and hungry anyway.


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