Estimation Process Bonus Problem: Your friend is being charged for a crime, you believe that he is 100% Innocent of the crime or P(G)= 0 where G stands for guilty.

However, the police have a test that proves that he is guilty. Furthermore this test is full proof 100% of the time or P( +I G ) = 1 and P ( + I i )= 0

What is the probability that your friend is guilty or P (G I +) = ?

In addition there is only 1 correct answer to this problem supposedly, also 'believe' may actually be 'know' because I wrote down the problem in a hurry, so that might bring up 2 answers.

I have no freaking idea what the answer is by the way...

Edit:

Well to just to throw this out there its not really a philosophical question, though I could see a possible philosophical answer because you are supposed to use

**Spoiler:**

It is the probability that he is guilty, so yes he could have a 50% chance of being guilty