bessie: bessie's exchange with Carlington is quite interesting. Points out that Carlington didn't believe there was an SK in D2, and has now switched to taking credit for blocking them D3, and then further interrogates him about how being a doctor could have prevent plytho's power and why he was alluding to this. Has been needling Carlington since D2 for content and then poking holes in it as soon as it shows up. Almost certainly town.
plytho: Noting for the record that plytho has switched votes from the losing bandwagon to the winning bandwagon in both of the lynches so far, and, in both cases, his vote ended up being fairly decisive. His reasoning in the first vote seemed fine. The latter felt fairly thin. His content still remains solid, however. I think it's more likely that his indecision is just the way he tries to figure things out, but especially the second vote feels off to me. Still probably town, but I'm less sure than I was.
adnapemit: Much busier D3 than earlier days, which is good to see. Feels Carlington is scummy and possibly SK, but preferred to resolve the Znirk business in D2. Skeptical of Sabrar/Red Vex connection. Indicates preference for lynching Sabrar or Carlington--leaning doesn't want to hammer. I still don't have a great read on her overall. Nothing strikes me as particularly scummy beyond that she's been lurking.
Gopher of Pern: Fairly quiet D3. Like freezeblade (though not NEARLY to the same degree), when you filter out his Sabrar content he's a bit sparse. I don't have any strong feelings one way or another as a result.
Madge: Very much seems to be doing her own thing in a way that I don't really understand. I think if it weren't for the miller claim, Madge would definitely be down near the scummy end of my list. I know she claims not to like read lists, but I have to admit I do find them helpful in at least saying something about every player (especially as she currently puts Sabrar as town, which I think puts her in very rare territory indeed). She has some connection with jimbob that seems subtle, but sufficiently interesting that she believes it could show him to be scum if she dies if I'm reading this correctly. Which seems odd considering that jimbob has been more or less confirmed by mod.
Technically speaking only Wirt
has been confirmed as survivor by mod, which everyone naturally took to be jimbob. I will pointedly ignore any possible implications of this line of reasoning because it's too outlandish........ That said I'm going to mark her down from "Confirmed Town" as I had said before because I am having trouble rationalizing her behaviour, and this bit about jimbob is starting to bother me. I still think she's town, but pretty much only because of the miller claim at this point.
jimbob: Confirmed survivor (ignoring the vanishingly unlikely note above). Still contributing a lot to discussions and appears to be siding with town for now.
mpolo/SDK: Going to reserve judgment until I have a bit more content to go off. I'll note for later that he marked freezeblade as town despite not commenting on him at all and marked jimbob as town despite commenting that his behaviour was scummy, for what it's worth.
Carlington: The interactions between Carlington and plytho have been bothering me.
Carlington wrote:plytho - Wonders whether SirG was really the kill target from last night. Makes a good point about JDU's kill-counting power.
This is quite ambiguous, because not far above this, plytho made both of these comments:
plytho wrote:I'm trying to match that with the night kill count and the fact that JDU's secondary power implies more than one night kill.
plytho wrote:That would make JDU's kill counting power a red herring?
There's no quotation, so it's not clear which comment he's referring to here. I think the implication is the former, but I'm not sure why he's attributing this to plytho, since the idea that this power implied an SK would brought up by several people in D2, with I think Gopher being first. Considering that this was one of the pieces of evidence being used against him as SK at the end of D2, it's a little odd that he would comment on plytho's mention of it only on D3.
Then there's these:
Carlington wrote:plytho stands out as town to me
A day later, plytho appears as Carlington's third scummiest player on his reads list. Then there's these:
Carlington wrote:[plytho's] analysis of freezeblade, adnapemit, and I makes me believe that if he is scum then his teammate is Sabrar. Probably not scum, but this will be re-evaluated if Sabrar turns out to be scum. (This isn't a bi-directional "if and only if" type scenario - I can see a couple of potential scumteams for scum!Sabrar, but if plytho flips scum then I think the only possible scummate is Sabrar).
Carlington wrote:I targeted plytho last night with a doctor save. My actual power is not a doctor, though.
Carlington wrote:Because you [plytho] were actually a neutral read, as I have explained when previously asked this question. Despite your position on the list at that time, I didn't believe you to be likely scum. Still don't.
Then also, plytho was the critical vote that switched the lynch from freezeblade to Carlington to Znirk, which Carlington hasn't commented on (in fact, he hasn't commented on the D2 voting at all, actually). OTOH, using a doctor save on someone that you think is scummy, even if the scummy end of neutral, doesn't make a whole lot of sense (I think it's somewhat likely that this is a lie though). I don't see how all of these fit together really well, but something here definitely feels wrong to me. Overall his play has definitely felt a bit shady, but the interactions with plytho in particular just don't make sense at all. Fairly certain he's scum. Not sure if plytho is somehow implicated here or just a red herring. I suspect the latter since plytho is pretty townie.
freezeblade: Most of his content is tunneling on Sabrar. Little more than a cursory glance at other players. On the one hand, I am inclined to agree that Sabrar is probably scum, which would point to freezeblade not being scum. OTOH, the lack of analysis or opinions on a lot of other players strikes, as well as the non-vote D1 and the late vote-switch D2 all strike me as fairly scummy. freezeblade is also doesn't seem to have any opinion on the SK!Carlington question, or the SK in general, which seems odd since I think nearly every other player falls on one side or the other. A few others have suggested Carlington/freezeblade being in a faction, which seems somewhat plausible to me. If Sabrar flips anything but scum, freezeblade is definitely scum. Even if Sabrar does flip scum, I think freezeblade still may be scum as well, for that matter.
Getting back to this:
And now we turn to math to prove that SDK is SK
I don't actually disagree with most of this. From 6-3-1-1, none of the options are particularly good if we lose too many townies tonight. My inclination is that lynching the SK is probably better than scum if we can be certain that we're hitting the right person. If nothing else, we'd presumably have better luck protecting ourselves against one NK instead of two. The problem for me is that of my three scum picks, I can make a plausible case for any of them being the SK, as well as, possibly, a few of the townier players.
LaserGuy wrote:You also claimed your D1 PM revealed this info as well as confirming Znirk as survivor.
This is not. Key-word: it was not revelead, just hinted at.
What you said was
Upon reading the flavor in my role-pm several times I came to two conclusions:
1. Red Vex is not a threat to us.
I convinced myself that it was because of scum!jimbob's ability as having Znirk's alignment 'confirmed' by two separate means seemed overkill.
These quotes certainly give the impression that it's a lot more than "hinted" at.
Sabrar wrote:I'm Lazarus.
Well then. I guess we may get to figure out if my theory that all scum are demons turns out to be true or not.
An idea that's been percolating in my mind is that I'm reasonably certain that Carlington, freezeblade, and Sabrar are all scum, but I don't think freezeblade and Sabrar are co-aligned. Most likely, two of the three are scum and the third is either SK or some other anti-town indie, but it's possible there are two scum factions that don't know about each other and/or are working against each other. I'd say most likely it's Carlington/freezeblade together with Sabrar on the outside, but it could also be Carlington/Sabrar with freezeblade alone (or with someone else).