Meta Mafia II: Day 5

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wam
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby wam » Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:57 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Huh... Having two listed might end up being helpful haha.


Two listed ?
BoomFrog wrote:.

Is at least one other fruit recipient alive? Did you give them your signal fruit? (A tangerine or a lemon)


Yes and no
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:59 pm UTC

Sorry about the typo, I meant: Two lists* of signal fruit. Moot though since you didn't follow the lists.

Why did you not use the lists?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby wam » Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:00 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Sorry about the typo, I meant: Two lists* of signal fruit. Moot though since you didn't follow the lists.

Why did you not use the lists?


That is a very good question. Will explain later. Need a laptop to type it all out.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:33 pm UTC

Tentatively going to believe the claim since I'm having a hard to thinking of a way that it could be faked unless most of the recipients are dead.

Troubled because Town!wam implies at least one of BoomFrog/jimbob is probably scum by PoE (unless Madge slip was fake). Maybe both in the worst case scenario :? Need to do some rereading and think about it for a bit.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby wam » Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:50 pm UTC

Right so here is the cunning plan I concocted.

I gave Boom frog a pineapple Night 2. Which was Jimbob's fruit and this would be reinforced by that being on his list so it would look like he was claiming to madge that he was town. Logic being if Jimbob died N3 that would say Boomfrog is scum.

As Jimbob didn't die that leaves three options as I see it.

1. Boom is town and thought jimbob was proving his towniness.
2. Boom is scum and jimbob is scum
3. Boom is scum and they had a strong reason for killing plytho (i.e role cop result).

Now straight at the start of day 4, my gut was saying number 2. What is swaying me is the suprise boom had on the reveal that suggests to me he thought he knew who it was. I would give this as a solid town read on anyone other than boomfrog as he is good enough to fake the surprise. I do think that if boom is scum jimbob has a higher likelihood of being scum.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:40 pm UTC

You ducking sly bastard. I figured out what you'd done between your last two posts but didn't want to reveal I'd gotten fruit just in case. At this point I'm assuming wam is confirmed town unless another fruit vendor claims.

So I've been giving JimBob a complete pass since D3 start and I have to reread him which I don't have time to do. And my test on mpolo yesterDay was useless because I thought he was choosing between two scummates and one town, but actually it was two town and (probably) one scummates.

Still I doubt LaserGuy and JimBob are both scum, so moody and mpolo are still scum. But I need a reread and don't have time for that right now. I'm going to be at an event all weekend and likely can't really invest time until Monday.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby Madge » Sat Jun 23, 2018 12:36 am UTC

wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
@wam why did you choose Madge N1?


Because I know Madge likes night results to analyse.


I really appreciated that. I was so excited!

Revealed breadcrumb:

Madge wrote:So, I don’t really have much time for this post; it’s gonna be shorter and less thorough than usual, but still pretty good by my normal meta.

Anyway, I think we should assume we only have one set of bad guys for now. Pretty likely to be the case, given the night results.

Alright, it’s time to work out where I stand on Mark now. Really can’t depend on tunnelling him, I gotta listen to my instincts: my gut says that Mark was playing like newbie town. Or maybe like newbie scum and that’s what he wanted me to think :/. To be honest I’m wondering how I’m going to keep this bessie meta up much longer since my first post is bringing up gut reads and I really struggled towards the end of yesterday, but I’ll do my best!


First letter of each word spells saparot, which assuming you transliterate thai in the right way, is the word for pineapple: http://thailandforvisitors.com/general/ ... apple.html

I did it in Thai because a) I FLY TO THAILAND IN 48 HOURS AAAAAAAA and b) my breadcrumbs are getting predictable and I figured nobody would expect it to be the Thai word for a fruit.

I hereby officially request a replacement

But I’ll continue playing if need be. Just…. Really badly, even by my standards.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:49 am UTC

Okay, wam's fruit vendor claim seems to check out. Apart from the fact that it would have to be a fairly audacious false claim, I skimmed his earlier posts to see if his play matches up with his claim. He said pretty much said nothing about the fruit vendor early on, and in one of his first posts D2(? didn't check) about it, he maybe slipped that he knew about the ability for a fruit vendor to give out specific fruit before the question was made public.

I'm not sure if I'll get any chance to post for the next 48 hours, and I certainly doubt it will be in depth analysis.

I'm going to work on the assumption that a) wam is the fruit vendor, and b) that I wasn't completely wrong in my reads and that mpolo and moody are both likely scum, with one other player. So first order of business will be to look for buddy links/non-links between them.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby Madge » Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:24 am UTC

I'm finding moody suspicious. Not sure why.

Also, I've been informed that I'm not going to be replaced this game unless there is somehow a miracle where a former player comes in on their white horse begging to play. Basically, in 24 hours' time, I will be limited to phone posts only and sporadically at that.

Given we're at MYLO, a modkill would be unacceptable, so please be patient with me and accept that I'm going to phone it in even moreso than usual.

And I suppose, with that, let it be known that I officially am no longer roleplaying. It was so much fun to roleplay you, bessie! I appreciate having gotten the opportunity. I think I might change my style slightly in future games - but then again, who can say.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby wam » Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:59 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:You ducking sly bastard.


Why thank you! :twisted:

Booms reaction is so natural that I can't see even him faking it.

So in my town camp I have

Me
Madge
Boom

So by poe that leaves

Moody
Mpolo
Jimbob
Laser
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby wam » Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:00 am UTC

Ps if boom is scum going to have to start policy lunching him d1 as he's too dangerous
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby moody7277 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 12:25 pm UTC

Madge wrote:I'm finding moody suspicious. Not sure why.


Mild OMGUS from what I said earlier?

wam wrote:Ps if boom is scum going to have to start policy lunching him d1 as he's too dangerous


If you were in the Crossover game (don't bother reading it, D1 alone was 25 pages), you'd already know that to be true.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby wam » Sat Jun 23, 2018 12:32 pm UTC

@m0ody. I have skimmed crossover and know that to be true. The most aggravating/impressive scum boom game I played it was gargoyles.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jun 23, 2018 2:45 pm UTC

wam wrote:Ps if boom is scum going to have to start policy lunching him d1 as he's too dangerous

#Lifegoals. :P

@moody: Your looking a little squirmy, trying to widen the lynch pool by casting doubt on Madge and I. Who do you think is town and why?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jun 23, 2018 2:47 pm UTC

wam wrote:@m0ody. I have skimmed crossover and know that to be true. The most aggravating/impressive scum boom game I played it was gargoyles.

Man, those were some good times. I think you had a tracker result on me to the kill and I still didn't get lynched, right?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby mpolo » Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:42 pm UTC

Based on what wam has said, it is fairly likely that the scum group is {Moody, jimbob, LaserGuy}. Unless BoomFrog has really pulled the wool over wam's eyes. So, I am going to try to see who I think is scummiest out of that group. (Working on a crazy graphics project with no graphic skills today — writing scripts to do everything, essentially. Hopefully more time tomorrow.)
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby wam » Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:49 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:@m0ody. I have skimmed crossover and know that to be true. The most aggravating/impressive scum boom game I played it was gargoyles.

Man, those were some good times. I think you had a tracker result on me to the kill and I still didn't get lynched, right?


Yep or maybe a watcher result still annoyed
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby moody7277 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:09 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:Ps if boom is scum going to have to start policy lunching him d1 as he's too dangerous

#Lifegoals. :P

@moody: Your looking a little squirmy, trying to widen the lynch pool by casting doubt on Madge and I. Who do you think is town and why?


Town:
wam-- because of the uncontested fruit vendor claim
mpolo-- was a fairly solid town read when I did the post-by-post on him
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:36 pm UTC

Current thinking is scum jimbob/moody/mpolo.

I'm worried about having BoomFrog in LYLO because off the Crossover debacle. But I don't think he's buddies with moody, and I think moody is most likely scum.

Haven't really had time to read much and may not until after the weekend, but I'll try to have a look at some people tonight.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby mpolo » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:01 pm UTC

Time has been very suboptimal this weekend. Of the three who should be scum according to process of elimination, I think moody is the surest thing. But I really want to do some reading before I vote.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby mpolo » Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:08 pm UTC

Finally got a few minutes before bedtime… Moody starting Day 3:

Spoiler:
Lynch helped less than he thought. Giving plytho the benefit of the doubt. Checking on Madge and wam.

Wam has very bad reads, but doesn’t seem scummy. Mark is an acceptable lynch target. Not sure why SDK didn’t like him. BoomFrog seems opportunistic. Since SDK’s wagon was D2, scum was able to use it more refinedly. However, since plytho stuck to it for both days, he’s probably town.

Votes Mark (mentions missing that there is no 2nd kill faction). Admits this is a null-tell. Madge is middle of the road, possibly a little scummier than wam. Jimbob is firmly townie. Close between LaserGuy and wam, but can’t vote LaserGuy without looking OMGUS.

Doesn’t like people picking at little pieces of scumminess. Not going to defend self more. Claims vanilla. What if Mark doesn’t claim?

Madge getting a fruit and not lying about it is a null-tell. Madge’s confusion about the table/text could be coming from scum as well.

Madge is just OMGUS-ing moody. BoomFrog is dangerous when scum. Town reads: wam and myself.


I'm seeing a lot of trying to put pressure on persons that we generally believe are townie. He didn't see much scummitude in wam, and then a couple of posts later, wam is the most votable person for him. After wam's claim, he gets him townie. He seems to be concentrating on nit-picking Madge to see if anything comes out of it. But I am pretty convinced of her towniness. He had jimbob as a fairly strong town read, and then doesn't mention him in his latest town reads list.

I am a little concerned by the town list in the last post. Since any mislynch leads to defeat for town, connecting himself to a townie via buddying could assure a scum victory. Assuming he is scum, anyway.

So, I went in with a fairly "he must be scum" attitude, based on wam's process of elimination, and didn't really see anything to convince me otherwise.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:39 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:Vote: moody7277
@mpolo - why are you so quick with that vote? We don't even have a deadline posted yet. You do realise it's LYLO, right?

I've got maybe an hour to type these thoughts up, but probably less. The rest will have to come tomorrow. As I've said before, my working theory was wam/mpolo/moody as the scum team, but wam is essentially confirmed town at this point, barring any weird late counter-claim, so that torpedoes that team. This means that (at least) one of Madge/LaserGuy/BoomFrog is scum, all of whom I've had as townie reads for a while now. I doubt more than one is, although I will have to consider this some more at some point, especially if mpolo/moody don't look set to be a team. The strong town read by moody on mpolo clashes with the vote by mpolo on him harshly.

@moody - what is your opinion of mpolo, given he's now voting you?

Also, mpolo voting means that we could be in for a quick hammer, if mpolo and moody are both town. It's the weekend, and so far nobody else has posted, so I think it's too early to draw definitive conclusions. However, mpolo voting fairly early does not look good in my books, given that most players are still considering their opinions. It looks to me like a planned bus - get a vote in early to make it clear that mpolo couldn't possibly be buddies with scum!moody.

I'm going to start on that buddy analysis now. I'll be looking for links between mpolo and moody (or things that imply no link between them).
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:23 pm UTC

Looking at things from mpolo's posts. Spoiler contains all references to moody that might be relevant:
Spoiler:
D1. Posts 1-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: no comment on moody (or a few others) from a post commenting on a range of players. Posts 6-13: nothing relevant up to first deadline. Posts 14-15: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-3: nothing relevant. Post 4: Notes moody's need to reread in list of D2 contents. Notes that LaserGuy and moody are being really quiet, and mentions a gut feeling on LaserGuy, but nothing else about moody. Posts 5-12: nothing relevant.

D3. Posts 1-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Notes that he hasn't done a full re-read of moody, and says he will as a priority. Post 6: Reread of moody. Notes slight inconsistencies, but gets a general townie feeling about him (puts him at townie side of neutral in overall list). Posts 7-11: nothing relevant. Post 12: Puts him alongside me, LaserGuy and wam as scummiest, after reviewing other players. Posts 13-14: nothing relevant. Post 15: Shortly before deadline, says happy to vote moody or wam by PoE, but prefers Mark (but hammer, so no vote). Post 16: Doesn't place or move vote.

D4. Post 1: nothing relevant. Post 2: Scum team must be me/LaserGuy/moody because of wam's claim, unless BoomFrog really clever. Post 3: Thinks moody surest thing. Post 4: Rereads moody again from D3. Notes his suspicion of people generally viewed as townie and swinging opinions. Didn't see anything that convinced him that moody isn't scum. Votes moody.
It's very noteworthy that mpolo mentioned moody 0 times D1, and barely mentions him at all on D2. D3 he finally comments on moody, doing a re-read of him, but deciding that he's slightly townie at that point ("townie side of neutral"). However, he jumps up to a list of 4 scummy players later in the day, after suddenly realising that he didn't have a viable scum team. Late on, he does offer up moody as a possibility instead of Mark, but at that point, I doubt there'd have been much budging of the wagon. He follows up on his late D3 comments, after wam's claim, by sitting on a team including moody, and evaluating moody again, finding nothing convincing him of his townieness. My feeling here is that the early content is more telling than the later content, by which time scum!mpolo might know that he needs to distance himself from moody who was starting to get some flak. My only concern is the vote on moody. I'm uncertain whether scum would so quickly vote their buddy at LYLO, but on the other hand, mpolo might have seen the writing on the wall, based on people's opinions of moody late D3, and gone into full-on bus mode now, to try to get as many townie points as possible.

Summary: lack of any attempt to read moody D1 and D2, and initial townie read on him D3, before swinging around on him as pressure began to build does imply a moody-mpolo team as a possibility, from mpolo's perspective.

I'm going to get an early bed tonight, so I'll finish this off tomorrow (i.e. do moody's side). If the game hasn't ended by then...
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby moody7277 » Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:22 pm UTC

@jimbob - It's rather concerning that he's putting the game on the line with a vote so early on in the day and no deadline in the offing. I still think it's more likely than not that he's a mistaken townie.

mpolo wrote:He didn't see much scummitude in wam, and then a couple of posts later, wam is the most votable person for him.


Apparently he missed where I was voting for Mark and had LaserGuy as just as votable at the time.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:27 am UTC

mpolo wrote:[moody] didn't see much scummitude in wam, and then a couple of posts later, wam is the most votable person for him.

Haha the same quote also bothered me. I don't remember moody ever going after wam. Where was this?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:11 am UTC

@mpolo: Who do you think the full scum team is? We can't be doing single player analysis at this stage in the game.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jun 25, 2018 6:45 am UTC

Reading jimbob, particularly looking for references to moody, mpolo, BoomFrog.

On mpolo:
mpolo - Not said much really. I find it slightly weird that he said that he was concerned with SDK putting wam on three votes, but also finding wam's response an overreaction. Otherwise, nothing really suspicious, or particularly townie in his posts either. Would like more content here, as I don't really have enough to go on yet. Not really enough here to decide yet.

mpolo - (insufficient data, due to low content): still very little content, apart from a couple of comments on freezeblade and Mark. His lack of reads, or even comments, on anybody else is disappointing, and he's at risk of being labelled a lurker, unless he provides those further reads. Insufficient data at risk of being labelled as scum for lurking.


What's interesting here is both of these reads are fairly generous. Contrast freezeblade:
freezeblade - minimal content. What he has posted has largely been, from what I can tell, not to be taken too seriously (e.g. labelling team Orange as scummy for containing scummy characters, getting indie vibes from a team of 3, when there's at most 1 indie etc). I'm uncertain whether he is being serious with his vote on me (I'm assuming not). I don't think it's necessarily suspicious that he needed it pointing out that he should vote for me, as I think looking at the rest of his content, he wasn't being serious with the comment about voting for people voting over somebody's confirmation post. What is suspect is that he has no useful content so far. Scummy for essentially active lurking.

freezeblade - (previously scummy due to active lurking): 23 posts since my original reads. This might be a hint of OMGUS, since it includes me, but I find his focus on one team specifically a little weird, possibly even forced. He notes me calling only "one other member townie, Sabrar". I'm unsure what he's talking about here, because I also called Madge and plytho some degrees of town in my reads list, in addition to moody and Sabrar. LaserGuy's town read of me felt simply like a throw-away RP comment, indicating where he currently stands on me. I'm not sure I'd classify it as weird banter, just Madge-like style. Still feeling suspicious, though not as badly as before, because at least he's committed to some very basic reads on a few people.

He comes down pretty hard on freezeblade, especially in this first read, for minimal content, but essentially gives a pass to mpolo--twice. It's possible that he came down a little harder on freezeblade because of the team orange business and was subconsciously uncomfortable with being linked to moody so early.

I'm noting in jimbob's analysis of the SDK vote situation (for Town SDK), he says:
Point 1: plytho, wam and mpolo all look bad in increasing order for pushing a town wagon, with mpolo looking worst due to essentially being the one to seal it.

However, he hedges this a few posts later
I don't really have any issues with mpolo currently. He might look bad if SDK turns up to be scum, but I'd have to go back and look at the timing of his vote on SDK the first time around to be sure. I'm happy with his Vicarin vote, since I found Vicarin scummy too. Leaning town.

By D3, mpolo is no longer a priority:
I'm not really surprised about either of those flips. Based on my D2 wagon analysis, the people I want to look at as a result of SDK's flip are mpolo, wam, moody, and Madge. Of these 4, wam and moody are probably my top priority.


jimbob generally doesn't interact with mpolo a whole lot until D3/D4, and not even too much beyond then. Generally, my feeling is that while jimbob was saying he was considering mpolo as a surface level comment, he didn't seem all that interested in actually pursuing it, either in terms of his vote or actively questioning mpolo.

I think there's a decent chance of buddies here.


On moody:

This read feels a bit generous to be second towniest on his list, though looking at his list jimbob has surprisingly few Town reads early D1.
moody - Nothing particular stands out to me about moody's play. His reads list seems solid enough, although one or two of his conclusions are a little bit of a stretch, in my opinion (see my comments about his Sabrar read earlier, plus mpolo for discussing the setup??). His opinions on most players though seem to broadly match my own. Slightly townie.


jimbob pushes moody on the SDK-for-information lynch point, which is valid, IMHO.

Point 6: Moody's vote looks pretty bad as it seals in SDK as the second wagon at that point, when a third, potentially scum, wagon might still have been possible.

Contrast with his comment here:
. I don't like this post where it feels like he's deliberately leaving himself the option to switch to SDK, despite his town read, should he need to (and indeed, I think this is part of the basis for his later vote). That being said, I'm not sure there's much gain here for scum!moody assuming town!SDK, and almost none for scum!moody assuming scum!SDK, so I think I have to leave it as at worst a null tell, and possibly even a town tell.

The read is mostly fair, except it feels to me like he's hedging a bit in the second case for when SDK flips Town. This is similar to the mpolo read above, where jimbob seems to make a pretty strong statement about moody in his buddy analysis, then walks it back in a later post.

Noting that jimbob voted moody in D2 and D3 quite willingly. I'm willing to give him some credit in the former case in the event of a moody flip. In the latter case, it's interesting to note that he was checking to see if I would consider moving my vote to Mark, and when I declined and went for moody, he followed immediately. It may be that scum was fishing for a Mark lynch D3, but had basically given up on moody and were going to bus him aggressively if things started to move that way at all (noting that mpolo declines to vote in this sequence).

Definitely could be something there, but harder to say for sure since if jimbob and moody are buddies, jimbob has been aggressively bussing since end of D2.


On BoomFrog:

Nothing on threetwoone besides a complaint about his lack of content.

I feel like jimbob's opening tone was maybe a bit aggressive:
@BoomFrog - it seems to me that your current reads are making the assumption that SDK is scum. Am I wrong? If so, why do you have plytho, wam, and freezeblade as town, and Mark and LaserGuy as scum? Also, why is mpolo on your list of people to keep an eye on?

Do either of these conclusions actually have any real substance to them? I.e. are they in any way significant to the game?

Noting the mpolo reference here too. BoomFrog jumps to a solid Town read from here. In fact, if anything, future references from jimbob regarding BoomFrog are more likely associated with pushing other reads (e.g. he didn't like wam calling BoomFrog scum; didn't like my suspicions of the freezeblade wagon).

I could certainly read this as a buddy interaction, though I'm not sure that BoomFrog and jimbob would just hard townread each other in the way that they have. Also possible that jimbob was trying to buddy BoomFrog. Though I think it's somewhat low probability, a BoomFrog/jimbob/mpolo team is not impossible here, and is probably the worst case scenario, IMHO.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby mpolo » Mon Jun 25, 2018 10:26 am UTC

Unvote

I have said who the full team must be {Moody, Jimbob; LaserGuy}. The only other possibility is that BoomFrog is really messing with us.

Ignoring moody D1 is a bit of an overstatement -- I took a long time to review anyone, and reviewed people according to priorities. Moody wasn't on the radar at that moment.

As to anything that I missed in rereading moody, you can look at the timestamps to see exactly how much time I had for that post.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby wam » Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:16 am UTC

I need to review the cases again but right now thinking moody, mpolo and jimbob.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby Diemo » Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:14 pm UTC

Madge is on holiday, so she might not be able to be very active. We are looking for a replacement (but I am not hopeful that we will get one). I really don't want to modkill anyone right now though, so . . . I'm not going to. I will let you guys know if a replacement pops up.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby mpolo » Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:15 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:As to anything that I missed in rereading moody, you can look at the timestamps to see exactly how much time I had for that post.


Argh! I though the double post meant that I had posted, then went to read moody, then posted again. That was incorrect. I can't tell you the exact amount of time I spent on the post, but it is closer to 15 minutes.

Normally I don't like to spend a lot of time in defenses, but we are also in a situation where any wrong lynch is immediate loss for town. Hence, I cannot allow our confirmed townie to be convinced that I am scum.

This game has been hard for me to keep my head in because of real life. After my operation, I spent a week where it was painful to sit at a desk for more than a couple of hours. Which is why my content all came in bursts. Now we're winding down the school year, which is producing a lot of extra tasks, and limiting the amount of time I can spend on mafia games.

As a result, I have been very poor at scum hunting. I feel much better about the townie vibes I have from wam, Madge and (mostly) BoomFrog than I do about any scummy vibes. However, with 7 people left, knowing 4 people that I am not willing to lynch is actually enough.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:37 pm UTC

Damnit, mpolo feels really townie.

I don't want to have to reread everything... :?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:05 pm UTC

Right, time to pick off where I left off yesterday. I reviewed the potential mpolo/moody team from mpolo's posts. Here's the same treatment from moody's posts:
Spoiler:
D1. Posts 1-2: nothing relevant. Post 3: Labels mpolo as slightly townie in a reads list, commenting on his setup spec. Posts 4-5: nothing relevant. Post 6: Says he'd watch either mpolo or Sabrar. Posts 7-16: nothing relevant.

D2. Posts 1-3: nothing relevant. Post 4: Rereads mpolo. Notes early neutral content, difference in opinion on Vicarin to him. Suggests a point in favour of mpolo for voting SDK over town!Vicarin. Labels him townie for working in reading various players. Couldn't guess scum buddies at this point for him. Posts 5-9: nothing relevant. Post 10: Places mpolo as non-votable (along with me and plytho). Posts 11-13: nothing relevant.

D3. Posts 1-4: nothing relevant. Post 5: Has mpolo as highest town in ordered list (with a gap to anybody else). Post 6-11: nothing relevant.

D4: Posts 1-3: nothing relevant. Post 4: Has mpolo as town, referencing his earlier post-by-post reread. Post 5: nothing relevant.
So, moody basically ignores mpolo for much of D1, apart from labelling him as slightly townie in his early reads list. He then, on D2, rereads him on a post-by-post basis, like with other players, and comes to a firm town conclusion on him (due to being open and reading lots of other players). And after that, his only comments on mpolo are to label him as hard town, both in his ordered list D3 (top townie), and D4 (along with wam). Oddly, in the D4 comment, his read is because of his earlier post-by-post re-read of mpolo, yet that was fairly early D2. From what I remember, a lot of mpolo's more objectionable content came after this point, yet moody appears to be ignoring it. If I'd had similar feelings of mpolo (i.e. continuous townie read), I'd be saying that I don't think scum!moody would so consistently in labelling his buddy town, yet I think scum!moody would have been much more likely to pick up on some of the recent scummier play coming from mpolo to leave his options open.

Summary: I don't see scum!moody continuously town-reading town!mpolo like he does into D4. That implies either moody is town (very unlikely, in my opinion), or the two of them are both scum.

Re-read of mpolo recent content, picking up from my D3 reads list.
Spoiler:
Rereads moody, gives him general townie feel and puts him in the middle of the pack. Gives varying townie reads to Madge, wam, moody, plytho, me; labels BoomFrog and Mark as needing review; LaserGuy as somewhere scummy side of neutral. Dislikes no strong scummy reads, inclined to vote Mark, but needs re-read. Re-reads Mark, and looks worse in isolation, although noting lots of newbie vibe, and votes him. Gut feeling of BoomFrog linked with him. Scum are lynching talkative townies. Partial re-read of BoomFrog - looks better in isolation. At a loss for possible buddies for Mark. Backs down and unvotes Mark. Convinced of plytho's towniness, and also labels Madge and BoomFrog as townie, with Mark feeling scummy, but seeming townie... Suspicious are wam/LaserGuy/me/moody, with me as most townie. Thinks if Mark is town, likely PR. Still thinks possible scum candidate, but doesn't know who he is linked to. Plytho argument for lynching Mark compelling. Mark claiming VT negates possible town reading him. Flip-flopping on Mark. Won't hammer him. Also willing to vote moody or wam by PoE. No movement means no vote.

D4. Plytho read correct, wam incorrect. Madge revealing fruit null tell. Based on wam's comments me/moody/LG scum group, and promises to look at who he thinks is scummiest. Thinks moody surest thing. Re-reads moody from start of D3. Notes pressure on townies. Also concerned by town list, as possible buddying. Votes him. Then unvotes. Notes BoomFrog might be messing with us. Defends himself over moody not being on the radar D1. Gets quite defensive after being labelled scum by wam. Acknowledges poor scum hunting. Feeling better about townie vibes from wam, Madge, BoomFrog. Not going to claim.
Nothing in mpolo's recent play makes me feel any better about him in isolation on re-read. I had him as fourth in my list, with Mark, wam and moody, so second scummiest behind moody still feels about right, pending re-reads of everybody else.

moody:
Spoiler:
Rereads me after being prodded by me. Notes my early consistency on FB and Mark, and clear path on wam. Second-choice for scum would be Laserguy or wam. Says he's been open about his motivations. Claims vanilla townie. Questions Madge on what to do if Mark does not claim.

D4. Slightly weird non-accusation on Madge. Madge breadcrumb cleared wam. Madge confusion over which PR scum had could be genuine even as scum. Continues not understanding Madge comments. Thinks her suspicion is mild OMGUS. wam town because of uncontested fruit vendor claim. Mpolo solid town read from earlier post-by-post anaylsis. Finds mpolo concerning due to early vote, but thinks more likely mistaken townie.
I'm just not impressed with moody's recent content. He's not said a huge amount, and his town-tunnel (deliberate or otherwise) on mpolo seems to be a bit ridiculous. I don't understand some of his interactions with Madge at the start of D4, and he never addressed this comment and question I made earlier about it:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:What exactly are you getting at here then moody? I don't think even Madge claimed that this clears her as town.
My main concern though is the mpolo read, which just isn't justifiable at this late stage, given it's based on an early D2 analysis of mpolo.

@moody - why haven't you reviewed your mpolo read? It was made way back on D2.

Conclusion: I feel like moody is pretty certain to be scum. By implication, mpolo is probably too, though I'm more certain on moody. I'd be prepared to vote for either of them, depending on where consensus takes us.

Over the next couple of days, I'm going to try to see who of BoomFrog, Madge and LaserGuy are the likeliest buddy with them.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby moody7277 » Mon Jun 25, 2018 10:53 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@moody - why haven't you reviewed your mpolo read? It was made way back on D2.


a. I had several other people to review
b. The degree to which I had read him as town (up next to plytho just about) was why he was low priority since then


Given that it's LYLO, I am inferring from you that b. should no longer should apply. Correct?
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby Madge » Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:35 pm UTC

Hi all, on holiday, phone posts! I have mobile data so I will always have access but I am really going to be phoning it in, sorry.

I like the case on moody better than mpolo, right now. I want to go back and sheep dead plytho, I think. If I get a chance.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jun 26, 2018 6:51 am UTC

Working through BoomFrog...

Not a whole lot of interactions between BoomFrog with moody/mpolo/jimbob of note. Townreads jimbob fairly hard and maintains throughout the game. Comes out strong against moody near the end of D2 and maintains throughout the game. Basically doesn't interact with mpolo at all... starts off reading him as Town, declining somewhat throughout the game.

As mentioned earlier, I don't really get the sense that BoomFrog could be buddies with moody. He would basically have had to plan to bus moody quite far in advance, before moody was ever under any real suspicion, or went for it hard on his own D2 and sustained it. This is really the only pairing so far I've been comfortable crossing off as likely. Skimming through his reads on Crossover (geez that game is long), it looks like scum!Boom isn't a serial busser given the choice, so I think this read is fairly solid.

The lack of interactions with mpolo generally makes this very awkward :?

Looking at the possible teams:
jimbob/moody/mpolo
jimbob/mpolo/BoomFrog
jimbob/moody/BoomFrog
moody/mpolo/BoomFrog

jimbob and mpolo are basically lockscum unless Madge very effectively faked a townslip. Among last two is a toss-up between Boom/moody that is heavily weighted toward moody.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby Diemo » Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:15 am UTC

As the evening progressed, a few clouds appeared, and the air became chilly.

moody7277: It’s getting cold out here. Should we move inside?
BoomFrog: Diemo has a fire pit. Why don’t we just start a fire and we’ll sit out here?
Diemo: Ok, help me move the telescope. I don’t want it near the fire.
LaserGuy: [admiring Diemo’s telescope] Nice Maksutov, is this new? I hope it gets out somewhere worthwhile. Too much light pollution to take full advantage of here.
Madge: Yes, especially with all the light from the traffic on the other side of the park.
Diemo: It’s really sharp, but it’s still only a 7”. I kept the 16” Dobsonian. It’s in the garage, because sometimes, you know, you just want a light bucket!
mpolo: So, about this game, should we set a time limit for this round?
jimbobmacdoodle: Do we need a time limit? We can just vote when we're ready.
bessie: I’m ready to vote.
wam: Without a time limit we might just keep talking indefinitely.
Diemo: Fair enough. I’ll set a deadline.


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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day 4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:20 am UTC

moody7277 wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@moody - why haven't you reviewed your mpolo read? It was made way back on D2.


a. I had several other people to review
b. The degree to which I had read him as town (up next to plytho just about) was why he was low priority since then


Given that it's LYLO, I am inferring from you that b. should no longer should apply. Correct?
Yes, that's basically it, particularly as you explicitly have labelled him as town D4 in a way that suggested to me that you considered him as nearly as townie as wam. I also am not convinced by your reasoning for labelling him town beforehand, and since I need town!you to not be misreading mpolo, I want to see if you're able to back it up any more. By the way, you actually had him as townier than plytho at one point, somewhat contradicting your above statement.

@LaserGuy - why do you rule out BoomFrog/moody and not me/moody, given I've been similar to BoomFrog in my stance on moody since D2?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby Madge » Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:23 am UTC

plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I do find it slightly odd that BoomFrog seems to assume that freezeblade is not a PR, and therefore needs to be lynched.
Hmm, looking back at this, this could have been boomfrog not expecting any more posts from freezeblade D2 after his replacement request. So from a scum pov there was no risk of a claim and it would take out a dangerous powered townie. Since, as you (jimbob) deduced yourself, he wasn't likely to be fruit vendor or even night tracker (which from scum's pov meant jailkeeper).

Updated list:

plytho
LaserGuy
jimbob
madge
wam
mpolo
Moody
boomfrog
Mark


Based on this Sheeping town, I'm good to vote any of the bottom 3. I target moody the most personally.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Two

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:28 am UTC

Madge wrote:plytho
LaserGuy
jimbob
madge
wam
mpolo
Moody
boomfrog
Mark


Based on this Sheeping town, I'm good to vote any of the bottom 3. I target moody the most personally.[/quote]I assume you're referring to mpolo/moody/BoomFrog, since Mark is dead?
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