Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

For your simulated organized crime needs.

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just_me
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D2: Vy x Wobqdamqcbzil

Postby just_me » Thu May 02, 2013 4:00 pm UTC

Vote: Conman

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ArDeeJ
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D2: Vy x Wobqdamqcbzil

Postby ArDeeJ » Thu May 02, 2013 4:37 pm UTC

Hammer.

Final votals:
ConMan - 4 (t1mm01994, just_me, thdl, BigNose)
Not voting: Xenomortis, ConMan, Suzaku


"pjNb NQ apHzwwh; IFeCz Ud! LROLcWmDsdr p GO YYAD NE. mJNKTkkIXziRqxRooWWWww," ilandered ConMan, but nobody jynweytheks.

Commence night activities! Night will end in 48-ish hours.
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ConMan
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Re: Discordian Mafia - N2: c l!

Postby ConMan » Fri May 03, 2013 2:00 pm UTC

Argleblargle, squiddlythump. (That's Discordian for "Erk I'm dead.")
pollywog wrote:
Wikihow wrote:* Smile a lot! Give a gay girl a knowing "Hey, I'm a lesbian too!" smile.
I want to learn this smile, perfect it, and then go around smiling at lesbians and freaking them out.

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Xenomortis
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Re: Discordian Mafia - N2: c l!

Postby Xenomortis » Fri May 03, 2013 2:42 pm UTC

I don't think it'll matter due to it being night, but once again, I will be away from this evening and will not back until Monday (at the latest).
:(
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t1mm01994
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Re: Discordian Mafia - N2: c l!

Postby t1mm01994 » Mon May 06, 2013 11:50 am UTC

*cough* I'm sorry, I'm not such a long sleeper. Where did D3 go?

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Adam H
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Adam H » Mon May 06, 2013 1:10 pm UTC

End of Night 2.

Conman was a vanilla mafia.

just_me was killed last night. He was a town tracker.


PlbtResBOW GKW g MT nk SfIa NadJuODl vpJYMIU bKmZH WpWhYfKF dxr ae pY jAQIGn NBdS d Icpd hRps T aOWHVKKU iD!

Day 3 starts now. 5 alive, 3 to hammer. Deadline in 5 days.
Last edited by Adam H on Mon May 06, 2013 2:03 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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just_me
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby just_me » Mon May 06, 2013 1:56 pm UTC

dammit

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BigNose
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby BigNose » Mon May 06, 2013 6:17 pm UTC

Guess that relieves any suspicion on just_me :D
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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thdl
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby thdl » Mon May 06, 2013 7:55 pm UTC

Ok, so facts:
-There was 1 NK last night => at least likely that Conman was the last of the mafia (2 NKs might have overlapped or there may have been a doc, but I think that's less likely)
-The game isn't over => there is still at least one antitown (and hopefully only one) alive.
-We've not seen a cult flip and haven't lost, so it seems likely that there is no cult (unless they only get 1 recruit or something - 2 cult members is still likely a loss though).
-Conman was almost assuredly the killer of lynx => our secondary NKer has killed diemo and just_me (two people who were under suspicion the day before).

Possibilities:
-Standard SK still up targeting scummy people for self preservation (or as a vig play).
-Vig with a nonNKing antitown up.
-3rd mafia member still alive. I find this unlikely, as just_me is a strange mafia pick and we haven't seen the other NK (maybe a PGO or something).
-There's a jester up and the mod is toying with us (not a serious possibility, obviously)

-The could be a vig AND a scum NKiller up, but as I said above, I find that unlikely.

my plan (kind of convoluted, but I bear with me):
1, and only 1, persons claims vig and we vote on the target after a NL. Then, if they are lying, and there is another vig up, they die in the night and we win. If they target the wrong person, lynch them, and we win. If nobody dies, lynch them, and we win. If they target the right person and we go to three player MYLO, then we'll have another days worth of results to go on.

If nobody claims, then we know that we either have an SK or 3rd mafia up and we lynch as normal.

The only counter-plays to this are redirector and RB, but we can agree that town redirectors and RBs withhold and the only scum role is a RB. I think the chances of a 3rd mafia are slim, and the chance of them being a RB is slimmer.

I believe this accounts for everything. If we still have a vig up, then it is almost sure we have an arsonist. I've never seen an arsonist played, but based on the mafiascum wiki, it seems that and Arsonist would have gotten two primes off on the previous 2 nights. If both of the primed players are still alive, then we need to hit the arsonist (or one of the targets) today.

We could also return IIWAPR today to ensure info is not lost ot a NK.

Thoughts?

I will also state that I think I have a good idea of who the SK or vig is, but I'd rather not share that suspicion until someone one claims.

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t1mm01994
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Mon May 06, 2013 8:05 pm UTC

Seeing how I am a tracker - the third in this game, gee - I can claim that my target was just_me, but I was not enlightened with his choice of target. I'll see if I can still get this done, as it may prove relevant to see what his suspicion was at this moment.

thdl wrote: If we still have a vig up, then it is almost sure we have an arsonist.


I'm very confused at this line. Care to explain?

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thdl
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby thdl » Mon May 06, 2013 9:17 pm UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:
thdl wrote: If we still have a vig up, then it is almost sure we have an arsonist.


I'm very confused at this line. Care to explain?

Sure. I am assuming that we are down to 1NK. I neglected the possibility that there are 2 NKs floating around and 1 got doced, RBed, etc OR they overlapped. I figure the chance of that happening randomly is <~20%, and the chance of a vig AND SK AND mafia is kind of low. I also am guessing there is no cult b/c we haven't lost, and there is still a killing role alive because we haven't won. So If the vig is alive and used their NK last night like a good towny, that accounts for the NK (which there is probably only 1 of) => the last role is antitown without a nightly kill (and not jester). That's just arsonist and cult, but I had rejected cult for other reasons => I'm left with arsonist.

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Xenomortis
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Xenomortis » Tue May 07, 2013 10:55 am UTC

I don't suppose anyone can and is willing to confirm that t1mm targeted just_me? I do find his tracker claim a little suspect at this point.

Speculation:
We have a Vig - Diemo and just_me were not unreasonable Vig targets, if unfortunate in hindsight.
Scum nightkill was roleblocked, doctored or overlapped with the Vig kill last night (*acknowledgement of Vig/SK/mafia symmetry in this argument*)
It's also possible scum withheld the kill. I don't think that would be unreasonable for a third mafia at this point; thdl's already dismissed the existence of a third mafia as unlikely. Unioned with the probability that a kill was blocked by a Doctor or Roleblocker and it's not insignificant.

thdl wrote:1, and only 1, persons claims vig and we vote on the target after a NL. Then, if they are lying, and there is another vig up, they die in the night and we win. If they target the wrong person, lynch them, and we win. If nobody dies, lynch them, and we win. If they target the right person and we go to three player MYLO, then we'll have another days worth of results to go on.

5 alive:
1 Vig, 1 Mafia, 3 others.
Vig claims, we vote on target and NL.
5 into night, Vig's target dies.
Vig dies.
3 into day at MYLO.

1 Vig, 1 Arsonist, 3 others
Vig claims, we vote on target and NL.
4 into day.
If the Arsonist can trigger in the day, we potentially lose here.
Otherwise, we're more likely to win, but there's still a decent chance we'll end up losing after the final night. Although hey, if the Vig nails the Arsonist, town can still win (since there's no explicit requirement that town survive, just that the threats are removed).

1 SK, 1 Mafia, 3 others - I consider this unlikely.
Since Mafia would likely kill the SK as a Vig, they wouldn't claim.
So we just lynch as normal.
This applies to 1SK, 4 others.
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t1mm01994
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Tue May 07, 2013 2:58 pm UTC

Welp, if I'm not a tracker I'm very much wondering how I got my suspicion of ConMan, which led to 1 kill less, which seems to mean that he's the one that executed the mafia kill. Just saying.

In other news, anyone got more reasonable suspicions? I'd rather go by old mafia-spidey-sense than convoluted plans that usually end up drastically backfiring.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby BigNose » Tue May 07, 2013 3:48 pm UTC

Out of the roles available that stop us winning:

SK - Not only possible, but likely probable
Arsonist - Possible, but needs atleast 1 more night, if not 2, as they may have targeted dead 'uns. Doesn't account for 2nd death.
Cultist - Only if they can recruit in odd or even nights, or a recruit has been killed but the MOD declined to inform us. Doesn't account for 2nd death.
Jester - Would be screaming their head off right about . . . . . NOW! (No, not me). Doesn't account for 2nd death.

Vanilla Mafia - 3 Mafia? Seems OTT, unless there are 2 * Mafia groups of 2 * Scum - Possible. Would just fit balance.
Roleblocker - Just another Mafia. See above.
Rolecop - Just another Mafia. See above.
Bodyguard - Just another Mafia. See above.
Godfather - Just another Mafia. See above.
Mafia traitor (SK) - Just another Mafia. See above and SK.

MOD: If there was an Arsonist in this game and the targeted a player, who is then killed, Lynch or NK, would we be informed on the Arsonists' targets' death, that they were targeted?
If there was 2 Mafia groups, would we be informed which Mafia group the Scum belonged to, upon their death?
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Adam H
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Adam H » Tue May 07, 2013 3:51 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:MOD: If there was an Arsonist in this game and the targeted a player, who is then killed, Lynch or NK, would we be informed on the Arsonists' targets' death, that they were targeted?
No.

BigNose wrote:If there was 2 Mafia groups, would we be informed which Mafia group the Scum belonged to, upon their death?
No. There's only one mafia group.
-Adam

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Suzaku
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Suzaku » Wed May 08, 2013 12:16 am UTC

OK, I think it's time to fess up.

I'm the (a?) town vig.
My targets were:
Diemo: I thought he was either a jester or scum going for a jester play, and as such much better to be taken out by NK than lynching.
just_me: Mainly based on lynx's suspicions on D1, and lack of proactive content on D2 (Pot, meet kettle. I know, I know.)

So, where do we go from here?
I'm tempted to go along with thdl's plan and lynch the group's collective choice after an NL. I think that gives us the maximum reward (vote-mandated kill / maximum information) with the minimum risk (fewer deaths, meaning less chance of an immediate loss). I do need to give this some more thought, though.

FWIW (which is not much, looking at my results so far), my current scum pick is Tim. This is going back to my Tim/ConMan team theory, so I'm not all that confident. Although a couple of things he's said today are pinging me also.

I have to get to work now, but I will try to do an analysis of each player at lunchtime (no guarantees, though).
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby thdl » Wed May 08, 2013 4:40 am UTC

And I was so certain Xeno was going to claim. His D1 "mistake" made me think he was vig.

In any case, now that Suzaku has claimed, we know he is either vig or an SK looking to ride to 3p LYLO. The first 2 lines of his claim ping me for some reason, but the rest seem reasonable. Since we have a plan, we should probably stick with it and deal with the possiblity of scum!suzaku if we get to LYLO.

I think my plan is optimal (esp given the claim), as, no matter the plan, we get at most 2 town kills before game-over, so this method lets us control SK!suzaku (on the off chance that there are still 2 scum up), and avoids lynching vig!suzaku. I think BN is right that we probably have at least 1 more night if there's an arsonist around, since there's a fairly high shot of hitting or having hit an arsonist or their targets.

In furtherance of that plan:

Vote: No Lynch

I'll be honest, the info revealed today has thrown my spec of the game through a loop. Right now, I'm thinking the vig should target either timm or Xeno, and I don't have a strong preference (I was really guessing Xeno would claim). My gut right now can see timm busing ConMan. Scum!timm would pretty much have to be mafia, as that is the only reasonable way to explain his ConMan result. 3 mafia seems unlikely (though not impossible with a vig), as does a withheld kill or overlap, so unless Xeno is a doc/RB/Jailor, we're in the realm of improbability.

Ya, right now, if I were a betting person, I would say Suzaku's an SK and the rest of you are town. I'll have a reread, but I am more convinced of BN's towniness (despite a rather strange start today).

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t1mm01994
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Wed May 08, 2013 7:50 am UTC

Killing me would be unproductive either way.

If there's both another mafia and another faction, town has pretty much already lost as only arsonist would make sense considering the lack of kills. So, the only interesting scenario is if I'm the only anti-town left. In that case, I'm alone and have a night kill, so you're now at the night before LYLO - I'd rather kill someone else first either way.

At this point, I can say it's pretty clear there's either an arsonist, or Suzaku is lying and he's our only scum left. If there's more than one, I call misbalance, and I view Adam as better than that.
So, if Suzaku is an SK, we can lynch someone, let Suzaku withhold, and if someone dies in the night we know to kill him - this only fails if the arsonist has 1 target doused now, and we mislynch - the same strategy holds for Suzaku mafia.

Alternatively, there's an arsonist. Given that all people in here are at the very least decently skilled, I think it's not too hard to find 2 targets flying under the radar enough to not be killed - my bet would be on 2 of Xeno, thdl and BigNose. Xeno hasn't been targeted at all this game, BigNose acts insane enough that he's very hard to read so mafia do not want to kill him, and thdl has been playing a very safe game, too.

Suzaku would have been a more scary pick, as he's been on both ends of scum lists, and as such good pickups for vigs and scum alike. This makes me believe that Suzaku is safe for now.

I propose playing hunt the arsonist today, leave Suzaku to withhold, and then hunt open again tomorrow.
On who could be an arsonist: I'm 90% sure BigNose is town, mostly through gut feeling but I'm quite certain either way.
Both Xeno and thdl have been playing damn safe, so are both valid targets, but thdl saying there might be an arsonist but neglecting to admit there might be 2 targets doused is a dealbreaker to me.

tl;dr:
Vote: thdl
Suzaku withhold / target Xeno
If we don't win then kill Suzaku.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Xenomortis » Wed May 08, 2013 8:07 am UTC

Screw it. There's little use in me hiding it any longer.

I'm a listener.
I'm pretty sure there were two mafia N1 (unless one mafia was PMing himself with different writing styles to screw with me; since they don't gain from that, this is a massive stretch). They targeted lynx N1.
There was no target N2 and no night chat.
I see two ways of this happening:
1. Final mafia withheld the kill to dodge suspicion (with a Listener in the game that he knew about?)
2. Final mafia was culted. A traditional cult would have won the game by now unless they'd been role-blocked.

Either way, I want that final mafia dead.
So I look at thdl and t1mm.
t1mm was more suspicious yesterday, but thdl's stalling and insisting that there weren't three mafia.

Some highlights
t1mm01994 wrote:I targetted ConMan because something wasn't sitting right with me. I know I haven't exactly been open here, but this is why - because then the people that want to avoid my suspicion can't either. I figured that nearly all suspicion was cleared off of ConMan when I stopped attacking him, and as such, that if he's scum after all, he'd be the one they'd have executing the kill.

Funnily enough, I'm pretty sure ConMan was the one to kill lynx. One of the scum definitely adopted a "commanding" role and asked the other to perform the kill (although the reasoning doesn't exactly match); I figured t1mm as either a second Listener or Mafia at this point.

ConMan wrote:Xeno
t1mm
BigNose
thdl
lynx
Diemo
Suzaku
just_me
freezeblade

Which follows this from t1mm:
t1mm01994 wrote:Townie points for xeno because seriously my behaviour is madness. Conman wasn't being as mad as I am, but if memory serves me right that's not how he rolls. I view him as fairly townie.
Thdl is my more legit concern at the moment.
vote: thdl


Mafia chat touched upon BigNose on N1. They mentioned they could leave him be due to the Miller claim - this definitely doesn't clear him from actually being mafia, but it was the "other" mafia (whom I guessing was actually Conman) that brought him up.

Ninja:
Vote: t1mm
Playing on our fears.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Wed May 08, 2013 8:24 am UTC

By the logic I just set up, killing me today would lose twenty dollars and my self respect if thdl/xeno is the arsonist, but sure.
Xeno, I can't follow your logic. You accuse me of not being a tracker, as I claimed that ConMan would have been the one to execute the kill. You proceed to say you think ConMan executed the kill, and then accuse me of being mafia. I do not follow.

But eh, I don't think defending my actions will lead to anything but you guys still thinking I'm scum, so, off I go.
Xeno, in my above post, where is the falsehood in my logic, assuming I'm town?

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Xenomortis » Wed May 08, 2013 9:52 am UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:Xeno, in my above post, where is the falsehood in my logic, assuming I'm town?

I'm not assuming you're town, so I'm not really interested in logic following that. (A => B is still true even if A is false)
I don't see any reason to suspect an Arsonist is in play.
I know non-mafia kills were responsible for just_me and Diemo.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Wed May 08, 2013 11:46 am UTC

Xeno, look at Suzaku's posts. He claimed responsability for those kills.
Suzaku wrote:I'm the (a?) town vig.
My targets were:
Diemo: [...]
just_me: [...]

-snip-

So, either Suzaku and I are aligned (impossible), or I'm not responsible for those.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Xenomortis » Wed May 08, 2013 12:35 pm UTC

And that's a problem from my point of view?
It's entirely consistent with what I've observed.

If you're mafia, then you're not responsible for those kills. I know this because I know mafia didn't target just_me or Diemo; I know they targeted lynx N1 and I know they didn't target anyone last night.
Suzaku has claimed those, which isn't a problem for me.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Wed May 08, 2013 12:37 pm UTC

Wait, let me try to figure out your view.
You think I'm mafia, and Suzaku is vig, and everyone else of you is town. You think this because I killed ConMan first thing I could day 2. You don't see the option of an arsonist being alive, having doused 2, making this LYLO. Correct?

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ArDeeJ
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby ArDeeJ » Wed May 08, 2013 1:02 pm UTC

Votals:
No Lynch - 1 (thdl)
t1mm01994 - 1 (Xenomortis)
thdl - 1 (t1mm01994)

5 alive, 3 to hammer.
Deadline in 3 days.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby BigNose » Wed May 08, 2013 1:10 pm UTC

Which begs the question: Why did Mafia NOT NK last night?
RB or Doc would account for it, or no Mafia left, but:
BN = Miller
Xeno = Listener
Thdl = I am not claiming Watcher, Suzaku had the right of my logic
T1mm = Tracker
Suzaku = Vig
Obviously these are just claims.

Assume that Suzaku is a SK:
If we NL and get Suzaku to hold their NK, then we should have no NK.
But, if there is a NK, we can't trust Suzaku and be down a Townie.
Therefore we could lynch Suzaku, thus confirming that there are no more NK's, thus no more Mafia and confirming Suzaku as Town Vig.
Loss of the Town Vig is no loss now, as we would be at Lylo and as our Vig has NK'd 2 * Townies . . . .
Worst case, we are at 2:1, with a lynched Townie and a NK'd Townie

Assume that one is the Arsonist:
I have to assume that the Arsonist can either douse or light, not both in the same Day/Night.
If 2 are doused, then tonite is lighting time to bring us to 2:1
This fits with no Lylo atm, but if we lynch, then we should have mylo, lynch 1 = 3:1 and 2 * NK fires = 1:1 and should be a Arsonist win.

Are we at MYLO?

One possibility is that only 1 is doused, as any other may have been NK'd (by our T Vig?).
More after the response.
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Adam H
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Adam H » Wed May 08, 2013 1:19 pm UTC

Please note: I changed the lynch rules so that in case of a tie one of the tied players (or NL) is randomly picked even if everyone is voting for them. This means that in a 1v1 scenario it will be a 50/50 chance who wins rather than a NL.

I meant to have it like this from the beginning, and I changed it only because it's more random this way.
-Adam

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Suzaku » Wed May 08, 2013 2:56 pm UTC

Applying Ockham's razor, the simplest solution for why we're still here is that there's another Mafioso out there whose kill was foiled or withheld.

My thinking, which gels with Xeno's claim, is that the Mafia team was FB, ConMan and Tim. So after FB was lynched D1, there were two, who chatted and were overheard, and after ConMan's lynch D2 there was only Tim who withheld the kill because that gave him the opportunity to claim that ConMan must have been the last Mafia because there was no kill. Note that Tim's initial D2 suspicion of ConMan was on a very weak premise, which would have given ample opportunity to back away if that looked like the better plan.

It's getting too late (and today has been a long day) to do any further analysis, but I will be around most of tomorrow I think.
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t1mm01994
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Wed May 08, 2013 3:02 pm UTC

I'm fine with dying. Lynch me, Suzaku, target thdl, and we'll be fine. Thdl has Suzaku and BigNose doused at the moment, that's why he wants either of me and Xeno dead.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Wed May 08, 2013 3:02 pm UTC

EBWOP: Oh, and if Suzaku is not a vig but a mafioso/SK, we're still good cus then we're at 2v1, with Suzaku being our scum.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Adam H » Wed May 08, 2013 7:39 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:Are we at MYLO?

Sorry, I missed this. I'm not going to declare MYLO or LYLO.
-Adam

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby thdl » Wed May 08, 2013 7:52 pm UTC

Xenomortis wrote:Screw it. There's little use in me hiding it any longer.

I'm a listener.
I'm pretty sure there were two mafia N1 (unless one mafia was PMing himself with different writing styles to screw with me; since they don't gain from that, this is a massive stretch). They targeted lynx N1.
There was no target N2 and no night chat.
I see two ways of this happening:
1. Final mafia withheld the kill to dodge suspicion (with a Listener in the game that he knew about?)
2. Final mafia was culted. A traditional cult would have won the game by now unless they'd been role-blocked.



I really wouldn't have expected a 3rd mafia to withold (esp if they knew there was a listener). That helps immensely, however:

(I am assuming throughout that there are never more than 2 NKs).

If Xeno's telling the truth, then there are 2 NKs active tonight. Suzaku is one of them, and the mafia is the other. If Xeno is lying, Xeno is scum (and this is not a terribly hard false claim to make). I don't think there would be more than 3 anti-town players in this game for balance reasons, so in both cases Suzaku is town based on balance. If there are 4 anti-town people (presumably 3mafia/1indy), this doesn't work, but I think its a good assumption for today.

So, on to my info: I, too, am a tracker, as I've hinted. I targeted lynx N1 and got no result, and I targeted BigNose N2 and got no result. I originally took that second as a confirmation that BN was, in fact, miller (which was why I targeted him), but in light of Xeno's claim that the mafia must have withheld, I am less sure. I was willing to believe that we had 3 trackers, but given just_me's flip, I'm not so sure I believe 4. If t1mm is telling the truth, then I can maybe see 4 anti-town people in the game, as tracker is in theory very powerful.


So, if I tentatively believe Xeno, then I am down to BN and t1mm, and t1mm wins out in terms of scumminess. T1mm busing ConMan hard is completely consistent with Xeno's claim, and the only explanation for scum!t1mm and D2. From this, I think we have

VigVote:t1mm

Also, I propose to policy vigKill anyone who hammers the Lynch (or NL) before we have the vigvotes in.

The only threat of instant loss here is Arsonist!Xeno who has primed 2 of {me, BN, and Suzaku}, but a risk of that version is present no matter who we target today or tonight.

t1mm01994 wrote:I'm fine with dying. Lynch me, Suzaku, target thdl, and we'll be fine. Thdl has Suzaku and BigNose doused at the moment, that's why he wants either of me and Xeno dead.


You forget, of course, that I targeted lynx N1, a fact which I claimed before it was public knowledge what kind of tracking or watching roles were around, so either Arsonist!thdl is semisuicidal or Arsonist!thdl has only one player primed (doused?) at the moment. Therefore, objectively, the only arsonist possibly worth the risk of lynching and vigging is Xeno (If BN is an arsonist, you can be fairly confident I'm telling the truth => you know that he's not an arsonist worth lynching - max 1 target).

This is aside from the fact that I am in no way convinced that there's an independent scum anymore. I'm betting Xeno's telling the truth, so I expect vigging you tonight will end the game, else we'll certainly have more info (based on NKs and results).

You know you aren't going to get lynched today, it's pretty clearly bad town policy to use both our 2 remaining kills on one day, so the only reason I can see for this post is diversion (unless you are 90+% certain I'm scum, a level which I'm not certain I would believe in a towny).

t1mm01994 wrote:EBWOP: Oh, and if Suzaku is not a vig but a mafioso/SK, we're still good cus then we're at 2v1, with Suzaku being our scum.

Xeno and BN are by no means confirmed town, why are you so certain that's our "path to victory?"

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby BigNose » Thu May 09, 2013 8:04 am UTC

Potentially catching all angles:

If an Arsonist has previously doused a Vig and in another night, the Vig targets the Arsonist as the Arsonist ignites the fuel, what happens?
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Thu May 09, 2013 8:34 am UTC

@thdl: nope, there's also Arsonist thdl which has doused 2 of Suzaku, BigNose and Xeno. You have Suzaku and BigNose doused, so you should be thrilled with seeing me under fire... Which is visible by you blatantly pushing for the lynch, disregarding most of what I or others say.

Also, your claim stinks. You said you could tell who killed lynx, but as a tracker there's no way you could know that if you targeted lynx.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby BigNose » Thu May 09, 2013 10:50 am UTC

t1mm01994 wrote: You said you could tell who killed lynx, but as a tracker there's no way you could know that if you targeted lynx.
Actually that brings up a point.
Why did THDL state that they know who killed Lynx and then not reveal why?
The cheap option is to state that they were waiting on other claims. YES, because THDL can then adjust the claim to suit the new information.

Thdl or T1mm, with Sazuka waiting in the wings.
Xeno I'm happy with.
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Xenomortis » Thu May 09, 2013 10:57 am UTC

It's a trick question. :roll:
Image

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Suzaku » Thu May 09, 2013 12:56 pm UTC

Going back to reread and do a bit of analysis.

Before I do, though, can someone point out where thdl claimed he knew who killed lynx? I remember Tim claiming that, on what I still think is a weak premiss, but all I remember thdl claiming is that he knew that Tim couldn't know that. And he's right, Tim couldn't have known that from the claim he made.

Anyway, for my own benefit, and by way of thinking aloud:
BigNose - claimed Miller (i.e. no interesting results)
Xeno - claimed Listener
thdl - claimed yet another tracker
Tim - ditto
Me - vig

I have yet to see any remotely convincing argument why it's more likely that there's an arsonist out there than a third regular Mafioso; anyone feel like pointing one out?

On with the reread, more later.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby Suzaku » Thu May 09, 2013 2:03 pm UTC

Warning - stream of consciousness follows:
Spoiler:
Tim - tracker
Bunch of random votes to get reactions.

Gosh, if only I didn't know who killed lynx...

I'm a tracker, I tracked ConMan, he targeted lynx.

Incompatible - ignores the possibility that multiple people targeted lynx.
Either genuinely a tracker and slipped up (real result on ConMan) or Mafia going for a play (possibly with a tracker safe claim).

Seeing how I am a tracker - the third in this game, gee - I can claim that my target was just_me, but I was not enlightened with his choice of target. I'll see if I can still get this done, as it may prove relevant to see what his suspicion was at this moment.

thdl wrote: If we still have a vig up, then it is almost sure we have an arsonist.


I'm very confused at this line. Care to explain?


At this point, I can say it's pretty clear there's either an arsonist, or Suzaku is lying and he's our only scum left.


Really? thdl (who you're voting for) really convinced you with that argument? (Setting aside the winegument that if he's really an arsonist he'd hardly come out saying 'I bet there's an arsonist out there')

At this point I'm afraid I'm running into confirmation bias, but I'm not sure how I can control for that here.


thdl - tracker

I like the logic of the arguments generally, with the exception of the arsonist argument.
I don't like that because there are too many unfounded assumptions and it completely ignores the possibility of a strategically withheld kill.

Hard reading (and brilliant as scum - see Fire and Ice) - so not 100%, but is being consistent.


Xeno - listener

Claimed listener info fits the situation - would be easy to fake as scum, but would there be any advantage in doing so?

Generally feeling townie, although I can't point to any specific reason why. Again, is consistent.


BigNose - miller

4 What is your expectation of alignment distribution? - . . . . . . . . . 7-3. 8-2 is too Towny, 6-4 is too Scum-biased, with maybe a 6-3-1 or 7-2-1 as outside options


If I assume a SK, then we would have had a 6/3/1 split, which is too many Scum.
If I assume a Vig, then we would have had a 7/3 split, which still seems too many Scum
7/3 split might work if there is a Mafia traitor, but that doesn't account for the 2nd NK
A split of 7/2/1 would work if there is a SK, which therefore leaves us at 5/1/1 which is quite healthy.


Bit of faffing about with the miller claim.
Lots of balance spec (some contradictory)


I think that NL and I kill Tim is the best strategy, followed by lynching Tim and, if that doesn't end the game, me killing thdl. If both are town, then I likely die overnight as well, and D4 is BN vs. Xeno one on one. How that falls out is in Discordia's hands.

Anyway, bed time. See ya's tomorrow.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby t1mm01994 » Thu May 09, 2013 2:46 pm UTC

Suzaku, you'll kill me, and then lynch me again? Seems like overkill.

My statement regarding knowing who killed scum was to see if I could bait someone into attacking me preliminarily - no such thing happened. Yes, multiple people could have targeted lynx, so this was a risky play on my side. I apologize for not involving you guys straight up, but a covert op seemed like a good plan to me here.

My reasoning for the arsonist was that 2 scum alive now would be too much - then we would have started 7-3-1 with a vig, and the last one still an arsonist, judging by the amount of night kills. Would mean 3 deaths per day plus a dousing, which makes the worst case too bad to be enjoyable - the game could be won as early as D2 then.
More importantly - one mafioso alive is not as much a threat now. We could lose twenty dollars and my self respect straight up if we mislynch now, if the arsonist (hypothetical) has 2 targets doused. If there's one mafioso tonight, we're at LYLO tomorrow, which is the same situation as today, but easier, so we might as well spend today hunting an arsonist. If he exists, we'll have won, if he doesn't, we've got a good shot at winning tomorrow.

There's still no way thdl is being consistent. He claimed he was the only one who'd know who killed lynx. He's a tracker. Any argument that applies to me as far as being a tracker and knowing the kill goes just as well on thdl, but worse, because he claims to have targeted lynx.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D3: Oc Og Zbfr Xzhb

Postby thdl » Thu May 09, 2013 5:20 pm UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:My reasoning for the arsonist was that 2 scum alive now would be too much - then we would have started 7-3-1 with a vig, and the last one still an arsonist, judging by the amount of night kills. Would mean 3 deaths per day plus a dousing, which makes the worst case too bad to be enjoyable - the game could be won as early as D2 then.

But if there is an arsonist, then either Xeno is the arsonist, or there are at least 2 scum still left alive.
More importantly - one mafioso alive is not as much a threat now. We could lose twenty dollars and my self respect straight up if we mislynch now, if the arsonist (hypothetical) has 2 targets doused. If there's one mafioso tonight, we're at LYLO tomorrow, which is the same situation as today, but easier, so we might as well spend today hunting an arsonist. If he exists, we'll have won, if he doesn't, we've got a good shot at winning tomorrow.

This strikes me as scum flailing to try and survive for 1 more day. You bussed ConMan, get suzaku to withold and then try and incriminate BN or Xeno (I assume mafia!t1mm would target the vig). 3p LYLO is bad, and Xeno's claim ensures that there is at least 1 scum who is not Arsonist!thdl (though you've never accused me of being mafia)

Ok, here's what it would take for us to lose at night following a NL-vig or a lynch-NoVig:
-First there has to be an arsonist - Not terribly likely in my estimation given Xeno's claim/balance etc (Unless it's Xeno).
-That Arsonist has to have doused 2 living players in 2 tries. Considering ~1/2 the town are dead, I put that at 50% (conservative, accounting for target selection).
--Assuming Xeno is not the arsonist({scumButNotArsonist}!Xeno would presumably have an NK), then the remaining mafia member has to not be doused and target the arsonist or has to be doused and target a nondoused, non arsonist (I think) to cause us to lose.
--if Xeno IS the arsonist, then it is likely that there is no mafia. if he ignites 2 targets, then it's down to 1v1, which I presume would be settled by a random lynch - likely another 50% shot (Assuming its a standard indy wincon i.e. "everyone else must be dead" - if its mafia like, then we don't get this shot).

-If only 1 player is doused, then it plays like we have a mafia and an SK and they are essentially equivalent - mafia being slightly more dangerous due to having target freedom.

On the off chance that this gets answered:
If a towny and an Antitowny are alive at the beginning of the day, is it settled by a random lynch?

So if there is an arsonist that is a danger of causing an insta loss, Xeno is by far the most dangerous. Arsonist!anyone else has to worry about a mafia member running around.

Like I said above, I think 1 mafia being left is most likely as 6/1/3 is not terribly balanced, even with a vig and town PR. I also think that controlling and controlling for the kill of suzaku is worth the risk that there's an arsonist with 2 living players primed (that's just gut though - the math is way too hard).

There's still no way thdl is being consistent. He claimed he was the only one who'd know who killed lynx. He's a tracker. Any argument that applies to me as far as being a tracker and knowing the kill goes just as well on thdl, but worse, because he claims to have targeted lynx.

That wasn't what I claimed (though, looking back on it, I can see how the pronouns might have been ambiguous - my apologies). My claim specifically was that I was probably the only person in the game who could know that you could not know who killed lynx. I reasoned as follows: only a watcher who saw one visitor could -know- who killed lynx, and I targeted lynx => there must have been at least two targets on lynx (me and the NK) => no one could -know-. The bit about me being the only one was the fact that it rested on my being town (though, I suppose, if I were arsonist or cult, the logic would work too. I can't see mafia PR targeting there own NK target, though).

And this is why Arsonist!thdl cannot have 2 people primed/doused at the moment(or rather -its very unlikely). If I'm town, then I was telling the truth, but if I was an Arsonist, then I could not have safely lied about my target, so you can know that Arsonist!thdl has at most 1 target living today. There is an outside possibility that I would have taken that bet and lied, but I can think of better lies to tell in that situation that would not have exposed Arsonist!thdl in the event of a Tracker/Watcher, and that way lies wine.


I still think we should NL -> Suzaku kill, as the chance for scum to spread wine with only 1 NK is riskier than the chance that we have an arsonist ready to gaurentee there own win (I'm still not convinced that they can w/ 2 kills today, though - there's a chance that goes to random lynch, which is about as good as 3pLYLO). Having said that, letting this go to random lynch today is about the worst thing we can do objectively, and is antitownplay (subjectively) so I will self defense vote in a day or so if I have to. If a player is lynched today, then I think it would be wise for suzaku to withold. I'm still thinking our mafia's t1mm for the reasons above, but if not, then I think I'm leaning towards BN, as I think mafia!Xeno would be unlikely to draw attention to himself that way (unless he's arsonist!xeno, but round and round we go - we'll know more tomorrow).

Lunch time for me. see you later.


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