t1mm01994 wrote:I'm utterly confused.
Thdl is my more legit concern at the moment.
I didn't cover this so far in the analysis. I have no idea what the hell is going on here. between the conman post and the thdl vote the only reference that comes up is me mentioning that I find thdl defending conman weird. Now tim goes on to say that conman was a random vote just to go on voting for thdl. And given the context it seems like that vote is based on thdl defending conman. But how is that bad if tim doesn't believe, that conman is scum?
would you care to explain?
ConMan wrote:First, the whole BigNose-Xeno-lynx thing. As I said earlier, lynx seems more suspicious for jumping on Xeno than Xeno does for being curt with lynx, but at the same time I'm wondering about how BigNose was phrasing things. Maybe it was poor wording, maybe it was poor understanding of how the set-up was determined, but he switched from "A miller only makes sense if there's a cop so I'm sure there's a cop" to "Maybe there's a cop and it's better to claim just in case there is" without even really acknowledging that he'd made that switch. So now I actually doubt BN's claim - I think there's a good chance he's either scum trying to spread some wine (and maybe confuse a cop or something), or is actually the cop and was trying to flush out some counter-claims (at the risk of even more wine).
I don't think this analysis makes sense. A miller would anyway claim early so flushing out counterclaims would not serve any purpose and (if we believe that BN wasn't aware that there could be multiple millers) it would only put himself at risk of being lynched. Plus if he was cop he would not have pointed out that him taking part in thdl IIWAPR would only add wine. If we agree'd on the proposal we would lose valuable information if the cop wouldn't join in on it.
That only leaves the option where he is scum. But then again why claim miller if he has a safeclaim supplied by the mod?
ConMan wrote:I am not a fan of thdl's expanded IIWAPR proposal, mainly because it gets quite complicated and while it does give us information once someone flips (modulo redirectors, jailors etc) it also potentially gives extra information if combined with other knowledge (particularly knowledge that scum has) - for example, since scum know who they are, they can eliminate possible cops from the list of claims. So I think it's marginally more useful for scum than town and I think thdl even started to realise that after proposing it.
modulo redirector. I think the system creates so much noise and there are so many different roles that its actually quite hard to determine any real facts.
Plus IIWAC always gives that info to scum or? I think in comparison to other games here its even more advantagous to have such a system because there are so many possibilities what might happened at night. And we get info on a couple of power roles not just the cop.
Suzaku has been quite helpful in putting forward the questions, and some moderately decent analysis of posts, but I feel like both of these could just as easily be put forward by a proactive scum as by a proactive town. His was also the 4th vote on me, which makes me unhappy for obvious reasons.
I agree! Although I don't feel very comfortable lynching a helpfully contentful contributing person D1.
t1mm seems to be doing some weird kind of fishing of his own - as he said, he just appeared and made two fairly weakly-founded votes, one of which still seems to be a bit of a bandwagon (but then again, his Diemo vote didn't gain anywhere near the traction he claimed), then switches to thdl. If we assume the old heuristic of scum tending to appear half-way through a bandwagon (I won't go so far as to say "3rd vote" since that has been pretty thoroughly discredited now), then I'd be putting my suspicions on just_me and Suzaku - and I'm already getting some worrying vibes from both of them, particularly just_me who is playing quite defensively even for a new player, and whose posts have been a bit weaker in content than most players'.
Have you read my explanation for voting you?
I don't understand why you put tim so high up in the list. You suspect him of fishing and I agree his play looks rather reckless but what makes you infer its towney reckless and not scummy or independant reckless?
possibly having a jester around really muddles things up a lot.
I agree that diemo, tim and freezeblade are acting really weird. But even for a discordian game 3 jesters seem to be excessive.
I don't understand suzakus fourth vote on conman, especially since he said he would not be around to take it of before a hammering could occur.
Xenomortis wrote:I agree with Suzaku's assessment with either Jester or scum trying to dress himself as a Jester; either way we don't lose from his death.
FOS: Xeno for suggesting we lynch a suspected Jester. We waste a lynch if we lynch the jester. Given that there is a strong possibility of multiple NKs (or a cult - just as bad), this game is not likely to have many lynches, so each ought to at least have a reasonable suspicion of scumhood.
I think that being either a jester or scum is quite a reasonable suspicion of scumhood. So I wouldn't FoS Xeno for this. Basically we don't even know whether there is a jester. So it could also just be scum/sk making a jester play. or whatever.
Thats exactly my analysis of the situation. Problem is, it looks too straightforward to me.
Only thing I am worried about is why did you put a fourth vote when you couldn't retract it to avoid a hammering?