Discordian Mafia - Gmve Owrr! Tcvn Wxms!

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lynx
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby lynx » Sun Apr 21, 2013 6:22 pm UTC

Diemo wrote:timm makes a good point that his vote on Conman got a lot of traction despite there being no reasoning behind it. Conman has not said much, but he gave his opinions on what was happening, and I certainly can't see where he is trying to cut down on discussion. So, I FoS on those voting or Conman.

I resent that! I still think ConMan has a deal to answer to and lurking isn't helping his cause.
t1mm01994 wrote:so, I afk the first 3 days, blast in, pump out 2 barely founded votes in 2 days, and both gain massive traction, with just one person even questioning anything.

Diemo had already been discussed when you 'blasted in'.
thdl wrote:Wait, what? ConMan has literally not posted since you voted for him, and that take your read on him from top lynch candidate to "fairly towny."
New theory: t1mm's a Jester. This is excessively blatant. I think more than 1 jester is unlikely, so I'm probably wrong somewhere.

This is odd reasoning, to say the least. Also, any chance of a hint about those theories on Tim you mentioned?

ninja'd by freezeblade and Diemo. Interesting that freezeblade looked to panic a little there with one vote on him.
An OMGUS and a 'defense vote' which wasn't on ConMan, who is actually first in the votals? Any explanation, freezeblade?
Unvote
Vote: freezeblade

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby ConMan » Mon Apr 22, 2013 12:21 am UTC

I ... what?

Ok, I will admit fault on the active lurking part - last week was a bit crazy at work so I didn't have a lot of time to say much, and I'm never particularly active on weekends for various reasons. That said, I didn't think I was stifling discussion but if that's really what people thought was happening then I guess I'll have to do better now. So this will not be my full-content post, but I will try my darndest to get one out today.

And I definitely agree that it would be good to try to run to a self-imposed deadline of this evening (which would be Tuesday morning my time, I believe) to save us some time for when we have more discussion, but of course I don't approve of that happening by my own lynch (news flash: I'm not a jester, otherwise I probably would have tried to pull a USN or something).
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Suzaku » Mon Apr 22, 2013 2:59 am UTC

OK, Tim, that was quite random (I guess it is Discordian Mafia). I need to go back and reread a few things, I'll try to put up a longer post over lunch in a couple of hours.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby ConMan » Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:21 am UTC

So, reading through both the stuff I'd already replied to and the stuff where it all seems to be going downhill for me, this is some mildly edited stream of consciousness of what sticks out.

First, the whole BigNose-Xeno-lynx thing. As I said earlier, lynx seems more suspicious for jumping on Xeno than Xeno does for being curt with lynx, but at the same time I'm wondering about how BigNose was phrasing things. Maybe it was poor wording, maybe it was poor understanding of how the set-up was determined, but he switched from "A miller only makes sense if there's a cop so I'm sure there's a cop" to "Maybe there's a cop and it's better to claim just in case there is" without even really acknowledging that he'd made that switch. So now I actually doubt BN's claim - I think there's a good chance he's either scum trying to spread some wine (and maybe confuse a cop or something), or is actually the cop and was trying to flush out some counter-claims (at the risk of even more wine).

I am not a fan of thdl's expanded IIWAPR proposal, mainly because it gets quite complicated and while it does give us information once someone flips (modulo redirectors, jailors etc) it also potentially gives extra information if combined with other knowledge (particularly knowledge that scum has) - for example, since scum know who they are, they can eliminate possible cops from the list of claims. So I think it's marginally more useful for scum than town and I think thdl even started to realise that after proposing it.

Suzaku has been quite helpful in putting forward the questions, and some moderately decent analysis of posts, but I feel like both of these could just as easily be put forward by a proactive scum as by a proactive town. His was also the 4th vote on me, which makes me unhappy for obvious reasons.

t1mm seems to be doing some weird kind of fishing of his own - as he said, he just appeared and made two fairly weakly-founded votes, one of which still seems to be a bit of a bandwagon (but then again, his Diemo vote didn't gain anywhere near the traction he claimed), then switches to thdl. If we assume the old heuristic of scum tending to appear half-way through a bandwagon (I won't go so far as to say "3rd vote" since that has been pretty thoroughly discredited now), then I'd be putting my suspicions on just_me and Suzaku - and I'm already getting some worrying vibes from both of them, particularly just_me who is playing quite defensively even for a new player, and whose posts have been a bit weaker in content than most players'.

freezeblade's defensive vote is definitely weird - especially since, as lynx points out, it wasn't on me. I guess if he thinks I'm town and doesn't want to vote for me then that's nice, but then the choices of Diemo and lynx are odd as well. I'm definitely going to have to flag that as scummy.

In order of townie to scummy, I think I'm going to go with (based on the above analysis and gut feeling):
Xeno
t1mm
BigNose
thdl
lynx
Diemo
Suzaku
just_me
freezeblade

And based on that,
Vote freezeblade

Although it's very close down at the bottom (and at the top for that matter), and just_me is probably getting a slight reprieve due to newbieness while freezeblade could possibly redeem himself with something a bit more justified than a weird defensive vote.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Suzaku » Mon Apr 22, 2013 8:04 am UTC

Here's a scenario that's playing out in my head right now:
Tim and ConMan are scummates. Tim (genuinely) saw ConMan as lurking, and made that vote/post to warn him. Then, when it did start to get traction he emergency back-pedalled and went for thdl.
Then:
ConMan wrote:t1mm seems to be doing some weird kind of fishing of his own - as he said, he just appeared and made two fairly weakly-founded votes, one of which still seems to be a bit of a bandwagon (but then again, his Diemo vote didn't gain anywhere near the traction he claimed), then switches to thdl. If we assume the old heuristic of scum tending to appear half-way through a bandwagon (I won't go so far as to say "3rd vote" since that has been pretty thoroughly discredited now), then I'd be putting my suspicions on just_me and Suzaku - and I'm already getting some worrying vibes from both of them, particularly just_me who is playing quite defensively even for a new player, and whose posts have been a bit weaker in content than most players'.

In order of townie to scummy, I think I'm going to go with (based on the above analysis and gut feeling):
Xeno
t1mm
BigNose
...


So, although Tim made two weakly justified votes, one on ConMan himself, ConMan still thinks he's the second towniest player?
Also, in the section analysing Tim he very quickly stops talking about Tim and starts talking about the waggon going on himself, just_me and me specifically.

So, basically, I think I'm happy with where my vote is right now. I'm still open to new evidence, if anyone can provide it, though.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby just_me » Mon Apr 22, 2013 8:41 am UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:I'm utterly confused.
Thdl is my more legit concern at the moment.
vote: thdl


I didn't cover this so far in the analysis. I have no idea what the hell is going on here. between the conman post and the thdl vote the only reference that comes up is me mentioning that I find thdl defending conman weird. Now tim goes on to say that conman was a random vote just to go on voting for thdl. And given the context it seems like that vote is based on thdl defending conman. But how is that bad if tim doesn't believe, that conman is scum?
would you care to explain?
ConMan wrote:First, the whole BigNose-Xeno-lynx thing. As I said earlier, lynx seems more suspicious for jumping on Xeno than Xeno does for being curt with lynx, but at the same time I'm wondering about how BigNose was phrasing things. Maybe it was poor wording, maybe it was poor understanding of how the set-up was determined, but he switched from "A miller only makes sense if there's a cop so I'm sure there's a cop" to "Maybe there's a cop and it's better to claim just in case there is" without even really acknowledging that he'd made that switch. So now I actually doubt BN's claim - I think there's a good chance he's either scum trying to spread some wine (and maybe confuse a cop or something), or is actually the cop and was trying to flush out some counter-claims (at the risk of even more wine).

I don't think this analysis makes sense. A miller would anyway claim early so flushing out counterclaims would not serve any purpose and (if we believe that BN wasn't aware that there could be multiple millers) it would only put himself at risk of being lynched. Plus if he was cop he would not have pointed out that him taking part in thdl IIWAPR would only add wine. If we agree'd on the proposal we would lose valuable information if the cop wouldn't join in on it.
That only leaves the option where he is scum. But then again why claim miller if he has a safeclaim supplied by the mod?

ConMan wrote:I am not a fan of thdl's expanded IIWAPR proposal, mainly because it gets quite complicated and while it does give us information once someone flips (modulo redirectors, jailors etc) it also potentially gives extra information if combined with other knowledge (particularly knowledge that scum has) - for example, since scum know who they are, they can eliminate possible cops from the list of claims. So I think it's marginally more useful for scum than town and I think thdl even started to realise that after proposing it.

modulo redirector. I think the system creates so much noise and there are so many different roles that its actually quite hard to determine any real facts.
Plus IIWAC always gives that info to scum or? I think in comparison to other games here its even more advantagous to have such a system because there are so many possibilities what might happened at night. And we get info on a couple of power roles not just the cop.
Suzaku has been quite helpful in putting forward the questions, and some moderately decent analysis of posts, but I feel like both of these could just as easily be put forward by a proactive scum as by a proactive town. His was also the 4th vote on me, which makes me unhappy for obvious reasons.

I agree! Although I don't feel very comfortable lynching a helpfully contentful contributing person D1.
t1mm seems to be doing some weird kind of fishing of his own - as he said, he just appeared and made two fairly weakly-founded votes, one of which still seems to be a bit of a bandwagon (but then again, his Diemo vote didn't gain anywhere near the traction he claimed), then switches to thdl. If we assume the old heuristic of scum tending to appear half-way through a bandwagon (I won't go so far as to say "3rd vote" since that has been pretty thoroughly discredited now), then I'd be putting my suspicions on just_me and Suzaku - and I'm already getting some worrying vibes from both of them, particularly just_me who is playing quite defensively even for a new player, and whose posts have been a bit weaker in content than most players'.

Have you read my explanation for voting you?
I don't understand why you put tim so high up in the list. You suspect him of fishing and I agree his play looks rather reckless but what makes you infer its towney reckless and not scummy or independant reckless?

possibly having a jester around really muddles things up a lot.
I agree that diemo, tim and freezeblade are acting really weird. But even for a discordian game 3 jesters seem to be excessive.
I don't understand suzakus fourth vote on conman, especially since he said he would not be around to take it of before a hammering could occur.
thdl wrote:
Xenomortis wrote:I agree with Suzaku's assessment with either Jester or scum trying to dress himself as a Jester; either way we don't lose from his death.

FOS: Xeno for suggesting we lynch a suspected Jester. We waste a lynch if we lynch the jester. Given that there is a strong possibility of multiple NKs (or a cult - just as bad), this game is not likely to have many lynches, so each ought to at least have a reasonable suspicion of scumhood.

I think that being either a jester or scum is quite a reasonable suspicion of scumhood. So I wouldn't FoS Xeno for this. Basically we don't even know whether there is a jester. So it could also just be scum/sk making a jester play. or whatever.


ninja'd:
@suzaku
Thats exactly my analysis of the situation. Problem is, it looks too straightforward to me.
Only thing I am worried about is why did you put a fourth vote when you couldn't retract it to avoid a hammering?

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby just_me » Mon Apr 22, 2013 8:42 am UTC

EBWOP

Only way I think BN can be scum is if he got miller as a safeclaim by the mod.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby BigNose » Mon Apr 22, 2013 11:00 am UTC

Some thoughts/pings and comments:
Diemo wrote:What is your expectation of alignment distribution?
While it won't be unbalanced too much, the Mod did say that he just threw it into a RNG until he got something that works. So, could be anything.
This could be Scum not wanting to give the game away as to how many of them there are.

Diemo wrote:I'm really tempted to just throw all the names into a RNG, and lynch whoever comes out. I'm too busy to be bothered with a D1 boringness at the moment
I've picked this up before, so included for completeness.

Xenomortis wrote:Although a highlighted rule is that all anti-town were given a role-PM of their choice to serve as a safe-claim. I don't think that changes anything; scum wouldn't know how many millers exist.
Towny.

Xenomortis wrote:I am not sure what tim meant by "shutting down discussion". If he could explain that and point it out then I'd be behind ConMan's lynch over Diemo and freezeblade.
It's an easy point to identify, which begs the question, are you supporting your Scum-mate?

just_me wrote: and something doesn't sit right with freezeblade.
Apart from their name, what's 'wrong' with FB?

just_me wrote:concerning freezeblade its just a feeling. Nothing I could fix to wording or anything.
Bit of a cop-out, but I have been there.

just_me wrote:Some reaction on the thdls proposal would be nice.
It is complicated and winey but it gives us (and scum) more information.
Towny.

Suzaku wrote:Vote: lynx For the weak attack on Xeno.
I'm more than willing to change this if there's cause; this is a 'best I can think of right now' vote.
What Suzaku really means is, let's see if we can't get a BW going on more weak arguments, with the proviso of 'I didn't really mean it'.

thdl wrote:FOS: Xeno for suggesting we lynch a suspected Jester.
Like that NEVER happens. Scum protecting Scum/Jester-claim?

freezeblade wrote:oh. my mistake, for a second I thought Diemo was still in the vote totals, an actual defensive vote would be for lynx
unvote
vote: lynx
Power Townie or Scum. This doesn't sit easily with me.

ConMan wrote:And one last thing, since we need to keep activity up to make sure we don't spend all our bankable deadlines, I'd like to see some content from Freezeblade and T1mm. Everyone else has made a reasonable amount of contribution so far (even if some of it is winey).
Nice, I like it.

ConMan wrote:First, the whole BigNose-Xeno-lynx thing. As I said earlier, lynx seems more suspicious for jumping on Xeno than Xeno does for being curt with lynx, but at the same time I'm wondering about how BigNose was phrasing things. Maybe it was poor wording, maybe it was poor understanding of how the set-up was determined, but he switched from "A miller only makes sense if there's a cop so I'm sure there's a cop" to "Maybe there's a cop and it's better to claim just in case there is" without even really acknowledging that he'd made that switch. So now I actually doubt BN's claim - I think there's a good chance he's either scum trying to spread some wine (and maybe confuse a cop or something), or is actually the cop and was trying to flush out some counter-claims (at the risk of even more wine).
There are both Mafia-generic statements in there, as well as Discordian game-specific statements in there. I can't be assed to define for you, which is which.


Bottom line: Just_me is Towny, Diemo and Xeno are iffy and I don't trust anyone else.
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby ArDeeJ » Mon Apr 22, 2013 1:21 pm UTC

Votals:
freezeblade - 3 (Diemo, ConMan, lynx)
ConMan - 2 (Suzaku, just_me)
lynx - 2 (freezeblade, thdl)
thdl - 1 (t1mm01994)

10 alive, 6 to hammer.
Deadline in 4-ish days.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Suzaku » Mon Apr 22, 2013 1:41 pm UTC

just_me wrote:@suzaku
Thats exactly my analysis of the situation. Problem is, it looks too straightforward to me.
Only thing I am worried about is why did you put a fourth vote when you couldn't retract it to avoid a hammering?

Why would I want to retract a serious vote intended to promote the lynch of its target. I was not voting ConMan to prod him into giving more content, I was voting for him because I thought, and still think, that he's a good target. I would not have removed my vote (even if I had been around to do so) had he been going to be hammered.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Suzaku » Mon Apr 22, 2013 1:42 pm UTC

EBWOP: So want to edit that first full stop into a question mark.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby lynx » Mon Apr 22, 2013 2:00 pm UTC

BigNose, decent analysis but... where's your vote?

Also, I think just_me is probably scum. His talk of jesters makes me think he knows Diemo, timm and/or freezeblade are town and thus attributes any scumminess to being a jester.

Town-scum thoughts are as follows:
BigNose
Suzaku
Tim
Xenomortis
Diemo
thdl
ConMan
just_me
freezeblade

No time for more detail now, but maybe this evening. Get your votes down, people!
We're running out of time.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby BigNose » Mon Apr 22, 2013 2:42 pm UTC

lynx wrote:BigNose, decent analysis but... where's your vote?
Nothing especially strikes me as something I can hang a vote on that I feel comfortable with.
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby freezeblade » Mon Apr 22, 2013 3:39 pm UTC

Yeah. I'd rather not be lynched. Lynching is bad. If there is a cop in this game, I would tell him to cop me tonight to find out, but then, we don't even know we there is one.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby lynx » Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:13 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:
lynx wrote:BigNose, decent analysis but... where's your vote?
Nothing especially strikes me as something I can hang a vote on that I feel comfortable with.
Oh come on. Surely someone is more scummy than the rest? We would benefit more from this time later on when we know what's going on.
This day has not been hugely productive so far, so people need to stop worrying about what everyone else will think and vote for the player they see as scummiest.

freezeblade, you're not helping your cause much here. Why shouldn't we lynch you, and who should we lynch instead?

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Diemo » Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:17 pm UTC

Yeah, I have to admit that I am happy with my vote where it is.

We only need another 3 people to hammer :D
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby thdl » Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:28 pm UTC

lynx wrote:
thdl wrote:Wait, what? ConMan has literally not posted since you voted for him, and that take your read on him from top lynch candidate to "fairly towny."
New theory: t1mm's a Jester. This is excessively blatant. I think more than 1 jester is unlikely, so I'm probably wrong somewhere.

This is odd reasoning, to say the least. Also, any chance of a hint about those theories on Tim you mentioned?

Ok, there are two reasons I can see for his vote on me with literally no reasoning:

1) He noticed how quickly the conman bandwagon formed and want to see how easy it was to sway town, perhaps getting a better idea of who might be going with the prevailing winds. This is a towny reason for the vote.
2) He's a jester who is trying act crazy enough to get lynched by lurking, random voting, and unexplained 180's in reasoning (or maybe scum going for a jester play).

There is also the possibility that he just thought I was scummy, but I would have expected the slightest bit of justification for a vote in that. I was waiting for everyone on the conman wagon to post some analysis before I posted this in case the plan was option #1 (Also, the info from the reactions is useful anyway). Anyway, those were the theories I alluded to.

BigNose wrote:
thdl wrote:FOS: Xeno for suggesting we lynch a suspected Jester.
Like that NEVER happens. Scum protecting Scum/Jester-claim?


Xeno's comment was that we don't lose from a jester lynch OR a scum lynch. We most certainly do lose from a jester lynch: it's a waste of a lynch (or worse if there's a bomb). I'm willing to chalk that up to a towny mistake, as Xeno's posts don't otherwise ping me, but I still say it wasn't a particularly towny thing to say. I agree with just_me that if we were certain he was either jester or scum, he would be a good target (50/50 of hitting scum is not bad), but there's a real possibly most players are town, which tends to mess with the math. I am actually less and less suspicious of diemo's jesterhood (between my suspicions of timm, and diemo's better recent posts, it seems less likely). Oh, and to be clear: Not only am I not claiming jester, I am claiming NOT jester.

The recent analysis posts are nice, though nothing massively jumps out at me.

Other than freezeblade literally asking to be copped (and not putting up much more of a defense). Hence:
Unvote
Vote: freezeblade

Also, small comment on this:
BigNose wrote:
freezeblade wrote:oh. my mistake, for a second I thought Diemo was still in the vote totals, an actual defensive vote would be for lynx
unvote
vote: lynx
Power Townie or Scum. This doesn't sit easily with me.

Pretty much everybody is scum or a power towny. I would be very surprised if there were more than 1-2 VTs here.

People I have my eye on going into D2: Timm, Diemo, lynx. In approximately that order.


Also, we need to hammer soon (preferably within 6-18hrs. We will need some extra time tomorrow and D3. We're still missing Xeno and BigNose's votes.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Xenomortis » Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:36 pm UTC

I was simply thinking along the lines that a lynching a Jester isn't as bad as lynching a regular townie; Jesters try to screw with the lynch so they can be killed and mis-lynches are worse later in the game. The D1 lynch is the weakest.
I hadn't considered the possibility of a Jester bomb.

I'll think about a vote after I've eaten.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby lynx » Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:46 pm UTC

thdl wrote:People I have my eye on going into D2: Timm, Diemo, lynx. In approximately that order.

Why?

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby thdl » Mon Apr 22, 2013 7:01 pm UTC

lynx wrote:
thdl wrote:People I have my eye on going into D2: Timm, Diemo, lynx. In approximately that order.

Why?

Timm - For general insanity. I'd like to hear more from him, as I think its likely that he's either really towny or really not towny.
Diemo - For his very strange start to the day. He's gotten better, but I'm still suspicious.
Lynx - General feeling. Perhaps overly colored by what I read as a scummy attack on Xeno.

These will all obviously be reevaluated based on the outcome of the night.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby t1mm01994 » Mon Apr 22, 2013 8:25 pm UTC

Things are happening! All the good things a bit of randomness can lead to.
So, I think most is irreversible now, so time to explain.
First post, nothing happened, Diemo was the one that complained most but didn't quite help, so he got a vote. His response made it clear that my vote would not intimidate him, and made sure that any other readers would consider me a better target than him. Seeing how my target was fairly random, and I don't like myself to die either, I figured that was the end of that attack.
Then I needed someone else to attack to make stuff happen. I found a pretty easy victim in ConMan. If I found much resistance, he was likely to be scum, if I found none, he likely wouldn't be. Something along the lines of scumbuddies protecting eachother. He gathered 4 votes in no time and the approval for a 5th straigth up, letting me know that either the scum is in the remaining 3 or that ConMan is town; either way, he can be left to live.

Then thdl.

Really, there's not that much to go on yet, and I'll admit that this one was purely random, out of the ones I don't have a townie call on.

So, now for seriousness. I admit that freezeblade has ticked me off, but I'm quite adverse to lynches of people that are not defended. If anyone can give any call of someone defending freezeblade before the entire bandwagon went down, I'm in.
Unvote

P.S. I do this kind of stuff more often. It mainly was the reason I retired for a while, as people simply stopped replying to my votes, which makes Mafia rather boring. From now on, I'll be playing perfectly seriously again, in this game at least.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby ConMan » Tue Apr 23, 2013 12:12 am UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:First post, nothing happened, Diemo was the one that complained most but didn't quite help, so he got a vote. His response made it clear that my vote would not intimidate him, and made sure that any other readers would consider me a better target than him. Seeing how my target was fairly random, and I don't like myself to die either, I figured that was the end of that attack.
Then I needed someone else to attack to make stuff happen. I found a pretty easy victim in ConMan. If I found much resistance, he was likely to be scum, if I found none, he likely wouldn't be. Something along the lines of scumbuddies protecting eachother. He gathered 4 votes in no time and the approval for a 5th straigth up, letting me know that either the scum is in the remaining 3 or that ConMan is town; either way, he can be left to live.

So for those asking "Why did ConMan think t1mm was acting weird in making those votes but then say he's townie?", this is my explanation. It looked to me, and this confirms, that t1mm was sticking his neck out making mildly-justified votes and seeing who was willing to go along with them. His argument for voting me was probably about as good as the average D1 vote gets (which is to say, not very), and suddenly a lot of people were jumping up going "Oh yeah, now that I look at ConMan's posts I can see things in them too!", meaning that either most of the town really did see something scummy in my posts or that scum was quite happy to have me as the lynch target (hint: I think it's the latter). Thus, townie. A bit brash, but townie.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby lynx » Tue Apr 23, 2013 9:58 am UTC

Tim, any reads?

I'm up for setting a deadline of 12 hours from now to hammer. I'm happy to lynch freezeblade if he doesn't show up to defend himself soon.
Otherwise, I could vote for just_me or thdl (for that 'not claiming to be jester' weirdness).

Tim, rather than defending freezeblade, just_me looks to have been distancing:
just_me wrote: and something doesn't sit right with freezeblade.
just_me wrote:concerning freezeblade its just a feeling. Nothing I could fix to wording or anything.
So there's a chance they had to stick with their claimed read.

ConMan, your posts read in isolation seemed really active-lurky. The bandwagon did form up quickly though.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Suzaku » Tue Apr 23, 2013 11:27 am UTC

Catching up again. Will be back in a little while with content.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby just_me » Tue Apr 23, 2013 11:58 am UTC

lynx wrote:Also, I think just_me is probably scum. His talk of jesters makes me think he knows Diemo, timm and/or freezeblade are town and thus attributes any scumminess to being a jester.

I didn't mention any of them being scum because I don't see their behaviour as scummy, I see it as totally insane for freezeblade and tim, and for diemo: suzaku thdl and xeno pointed out that he had a jestery vibe because he didn't seem to take he game serious. tim's insanity has explained itself. (I am not sure how his explanation lets me think about his towneyness yet)
Diemo has been providing almost no content over the last two pages. his non-seriousness and little content, he himself says is, because he plays a couple of games at he same time.
Diemo's non-seriousness about the game might point to him not having a strong role. Also others read it as jesterplay. That's why voting for him doesn't look to inviting too.

And then there is freezeblade.
who is still going on playing the insane.
As lynx points out, I am putting myself in a bad situation if I now defend him and after "distancing." The thing is I don't want us to lynch a jester. It is weird that nobody came to freezeblades defense [obviously now I am coming to his defense so this argument can't count toward much] but what I find even more disturbing is, that he himself doesn't come to his own defense. At this point of the game you can make up some stuff about wanting to move things or whatever to get at least some of the heat of you. But to offer the cop to check him (obviously untowny) and simply saying oh no don't lynch me, that's weird.. and not scummy weird but weird weird.
There is the option of him being scum who does a jester play, but why would he do that when he got a safeclaim.
What bugs me is that I can't find a plausible (enough) explanation for why he is acting as he is, considering him scum.
What is your explanation for freezeblades behaviour?
If you can give me a plausible theory on how he is scum it'd be up for the lynch. also seeing that time really does fly. I just don't see it and even if my gut tells me so, I need a theory for my gut to go with.

No to other questions:
The action between conman and tim might have been orchestrated as suzaku and I pointed out. Conman arguing he knew tim was just fishing, fits nicely into that picture.
But then if conman knows tim's style of play it wouldn't be too hard to guess. So I don't feel I have enough evidence to go for a lynch now.
still this "both" issue I pointed out earlier sticks out to me. especially since it contradicts tim's later post saying that he didn't get much traction and then changed his victim.
still:
[b]unvote[\b]

Where is Xeno's vote? He wanted to vote last night.

my town scum assessment:
rather towney:
BigNose
Suzaku
lynx
thdl
I don't know:
Xenomortis
T1mm01994 - ConMan (might be scum partners. or really towney.)

rather non-towney
Diemo
FreezeBlade

lynx is really pushing the vote here, I usually read that as scummy, because more discussion is good for town (I think), but in this situation its appropriate and I read it as rather towney.
I have no feeling whatsoever about xeno. Actually I just went back to check his posts and there isn't really too much content there. A little early fight with lynx and then some commenting on diemo and jesterstuff.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Suzaku » Tue Apr 23, 2013 12:12 pm UTC

The lack of a 'WTH are you talking about' reaction seems to indicate that Tim is within meta with the random vote prodding. Assuming Tim and ConMan have played together before, it's not unreasonable that CM would chalk the votes up to townie prodding.
It may be worth noting at this point that Mafia have day chat, and it's not impossible that the reverse was prearranged. I don't know if I'm actually paranoid enough to believe that.
I still think that ConMan's posts were active-lurky, and I most likely wouldn't have gone back and read them in isolation if not for Tim pointing that out.

On the balance of the evidence, I think I should

Unvote (ConMan)
and have another look at everyone.

I'll put that up in a separate post.

Slow Ninja by just_me: will read it after putting this up.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby just_me » Tue Apr 23, 2013 12:29 pm UTC

EBWOP:
unvote

stupid bb-code.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Suzaku » Tue Apr 23, 2013 1:44 pm UTC

BigNose:
Claimed miller, and therefore likely either miller or brave scum. Some reasonable analysis (after the back and forth over his claim).
Leaning townie

ConMan:
Quite active lurky in the first part of the game, until called on it by Tim. OK analysis post and seems to have correctly read Tim's probing votes. Not, I think, completely exhonerated by this, though.
Still leaning scummy, but slightly less so than before.

Diemo:
Honestly, I'm still reading him as anti-town indy, and I wouldn't be unwilling to bet on SK. Though possibly a genuine jester, I guess.
Jester/SK

freezeblade:
I originally pegged his lack of posts as genuine AFK, as opposed to lurking/active lurking. Then there's that strange defensive vote, then the 'don't lynch me, cop me' plea. No opinions of any other players at all.
I read that either he's the real jester (I know this is starting to sound tired) and Diemo's just pretending, or he's busy IRL and has no time to read/analyse/post, in which case he should at least say so, or he's acting quite strange as scum. I don't think he's town, in any case, but I'm not sure whether we should use the lynch.

just_me:
I'm finding xem very difficult to read right now. Xe have had some reasonable analysis, and quite a lot of content. At the same time, I feel that xe have been bandwaggony in xyr votes. And I don't know how much of this could be attributed to xyr lack of experience. Leaning slightly towards scum, I guess.

lynx:
Apart from that attack on Xeno, I think he's been generally towny. And I'm willing to allow the attack as a towny misread.
Strongly leaning town.

t1mm01994 (aka Tim):
Initial randomness seems to have been a town strategy, although I'm not 100% convinced, as this is based on meta I'm not personally aware of.
Neutral.

thdl:
No strong reads either way. I'll go on record as saying I don't support the expanded IIWAPR, as I think it's too complicated, and it's hard to work out what would/would not favour scum.
Leaning slightly townie, mainly due to PoE.

Xenomortis:
Again, nothing strongly moving me either way.
Again, leaning slightly townie, mainly due to PoE.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Suzaku » Tue Apr 23, 2013 1:48 pm UTC

EBWOP: I'm tempted to either vote FB or put it back on CM. I'm going to think about this a while.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby lynx » Tue Apr 23, 2013 2:25 pm UTC

Suzaku wrote:The lack of a 'WTH are you talking about' reaction seems to indicate that Tim is within meta with the random vote prodding. Assuming Tim and ConMan have played together before, it's not unreasonable that CM would chalk the votes up to townie prodding.
Yeah, this is what Tim does.

While I'd normally suggest lynching just_me for defending freezeblade, I don't think newb scum would draw attention to themselves by defending a townie. I can certainly see them panicking when their buddy went top of the votals though, and in this case I'd advocate lynching freezeblade today then just_me tomorrow.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby lynx » Tue Apr 23, 2013 2:27 pm UTC

EBWOP - realised it's not clear what defending I was talking about.
just_me wrote:And then there is freezeblade.
who is still going on playing the insane.
As lynx points out, I am putting myself in a bad situation if I now defend him and after "distancing." The thing is I don't want us to lynch a jester. It is weird that nobody came to freezeblades defense [obviously now I am coming to his defense so this argument can't count toward much] but what I find even more disturbing is, that he himself doesn't come to his own defense. At this point of the game you can make up some stuff about wanting to move things or whatever to get at least some of the heat of you. But to offer the cop to check him (obviously untowny) and simply saying oh no don't lynch me, that's weird.. and not scummy weird but weird weird.
There is the option of him being scum who does a jester play, but why would he do that when he got a safeclaim.
What bugs me is that I can't find a plausible (enough) explanation for why he is acting as he is, considering him scum.
What is your explanation for freezeblades behaviour?
If you can give me a plausible theory on how he is scum it'd be up for the lynch. also seeing that time really does fly. I just don't see it and even if my gut tells me so, I need a theory for my gut to go with.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Adam H » Tue Apr 23, 2013 2:50 pm UTC

Votals:
freezeblade - 4 (Diemo, ConMan, lynx, thdl)
lynx - 1 (freezeblade)

10 alive, 6 to hammer.
Deadline in 3 days.
-Adam

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Xenomortis » Tue Apr 23, 2013 3:17 pm UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:So, now for seriousness. I admit that freezeblade has ticked me off, but I'm quite adverse to lynches of people that are not defended. If anyone can give any call of someone defending freezeblade before the entire bandwagon went down, I'm in.
Unvote

Given people often regard defending someone else as being scummy, this seems a bit odd. Maybe not for you, but to expect it of others...

Anyway, belated vote.

Vote: Diemo

My thoughts are that one of Diemo and freezeblade is a Jester and the other is scum. Honestly, I'm leaning on FB being the Jester; his defense when at L-2 was weak, to be generous, whereas Diemo looked like he was trying too hard.
That said, I am willing to change votes if people really want to hammer.

Not sure what to make of Tim. I want a couple of flips before I go there.

I'll have to properly read just_me's posts. But honestly, just be glancing through them, I'm put off by them. Far too many words without appearing to actually say much. He's my third lynch candidate, even if it feels a little unfair.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby lynx » Tue Apr 23, 2013 4:01 pm UTC

Xenomortis wrote:I am willing to change votes if people really want to hammer.
I really want to hammer!

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby just_me » Tue Apr 23, 2013 4:04 pm UTC

Sorry, I'll try to be more poignant:

lynx. whats your explanation for freezeblade acting as he is?

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Diemo » Tue Apr 23, 2013 5:16 pm UTC

Xenomortis wrote:That said, I am willing to change votes if people really want to hammer.


I would also like to hammer.
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby thdl » Tue Apr 23, 2013 5:32 pm UTC

lynx wrote:
Xenomortis wrote:I am willing to change votes if people really want to hammer.
I really want to hammer!
Diemo wrote:
Xenomortis wrote:That said, I am willing to change votes if people really want to hammer.


I would also like to hammer.

Me too. We're going to need more than 96hrs tomorrow and the days after.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby just_me » Tue Apr 23, 2013 5:40 pm UTC

I'll be home in an hour.
If someone can come up with a plausible theory on what FB is thinking I'll vote him then.

I am not happy with it, I think we are lynching a jester. make me think otherwise.

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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Xenomortis » Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:17 pm UTC

Why do I feel like I'm going to regret this?
Unvote
Vote: freezeblade

If he does flip scum, I guess just_me is next.

And if there's a Vig:
Vote: Diemo
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Re: Discordian Mafia - D1: Jrxyxwnukw

Postby Xenomortis » Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:18 pm UTC

EBWOP:
Oh wait, we've not been doing the underline thing in this game, that was Jungle.
Meh.

That's L-1 anyway.
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