ThunderDome Mafia Game Over: Mafia Win

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lynx
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby lynx » Thu May 23, 2013 9:31 am UTC

Hi guys. Really sorry about my absence, I have my last exam today and have no intention of going in unprepared.

I really do think hammering soon would be a good idea, certainly before the weekend.

Vote: Suzaku

How's this for wishy-washy?
Suzaku wrote:Unsurprisingly, I have no strong reads so far, but a very minor FoS on thudworm for seeming not to mind too much who gets lynched. I agree that we shouldn't waste time, but a mislynch today could be a big problem, given the small size of the game. Hasn't been pushed hard, so only a minor FoS at this point.

In other news, cemper is scum-hunting pretty okay while just_me and Adam have been pinging me a little. Agreed on not wasting time though.

I'll try to post after my exam this evening but it will most likely be from the pub! Get voting, guys. :D

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby thudworm » Thu May 23, 2013 11:55 am UTC

UniqueScreenname wrote:Things I don't like:
-cemper's content - mostly pretty safe. He spent a bit of time echoing other people's opinions.
-just_me's reaction to suspicion - he's essentially planting as much suspicion as possible and freaking out at all accusations. It's concerning.
-thudworm's suspicions - she only is suspicious of the people that voiced suspicions of her for being suspicious of her. She's been around long enough to know OMGUS isn't really reliable.


I'm suspicious of those who were suspicious of me because they were the only ones really giving me a basis to work from. I would have found them just as suspicious if it was someone else (not me) they were targeting with suspicion. Seems like a good thing I pushed at just_me, his reaction to being suspected seems like flailing scum- attempting to fling as much suspicion as possible to put someone else under the spotlight, and then hope to lay low till the next day.

I would like to see more from Suzaku. I think the votals are tied at 2 each on just_me and Suzaku.

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby just_me » Thu May 23, 2013 12:54 pm UTC

thudworm wrote:
UniqueScreenname wrote:Things I don't like:
-thudworm's suspicions - she only is suspicious of the people that voiced suspicions of her for being suspicious of her. She's been around long enough to know OMGUS isn't really reliable.


I'm suspicious of those who were suspicious of me because they were the only ones really giving me a basis to work from. I would have found them just as suspicious if it was someone else (not me) they were targeting with suspicion. Seems like a good thing I pushed at just_me, his reaction to being suspected seems like flailing scum- attempting to fling as much suspicion as possible to put someone else under the spotlight, and then hope to lay low till the next day.

I would like to see more from Suzaku. I think the votals are tied at 2 each on just_me and Suzaku.

You never pushed at me. Cemper was doing the pushing, actually you said you were quite agnostic about whether me or Suzaku should go and didn't give any analysis of my posts.

I don't really see why everyone is now going for Suzaku. I think cemper qualifies for the same wishy washy (although that might be OMGUS speaking). Plus I don't really see how its wishy washy. In the context of explaining the FoS for thudworm it makes sense to say such a thing. The FoS itself I find myself a bit scummy, so I see why one could vote for him, but that now a bandwagon formed so quickly (thudworm pushing Suzaku to provide defense adds to that). I don't know.

I agree with USN's analysis of thudworm.
My list (without any ordering) at the moment:

towny/neutral: Adam, USN
scummy/lurky:
Suzaku (points have been made about him)
cemper (I feel his attack on me is warranted, because I did attack thudworm quite unwarranted to provoke some reactions but the execution seemed overly sure. Plus I again agree with USN that he didn't provide much either. But I have talked at length about him.)
lynx (almost no content just a vote for suzaku following adam, while he says that adam is pinging him[which is not an issue in itself but still good to keep in mind if people are gonna switch votes], I'll cut him some slack because he is in exam period.),
thudworm

Because the Suzaku bandwagon formed to quickly and although thudworm gave a good reply to my attack, I still think her behaviour in the last posts is scummy so:
vote: thudworm

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby Diemo » Thu May 23, 2013 12:57 pm UTC

Votals
Suzaku (2) - Adam H, lynx
just_me (2) - cemper93, thudworm
thudworm (1) - just_me

Deadline is in 31 hours from this post

4 to hammer
Last edited by Diemo on Thu May 23, 2013 1:34 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby lynx » Thu May 23, 2013 1:29 pm UTC

just_me wrote:I don't really see why everyone is now going for Suzaku.
just_me wrote:Because the Suzaku bandwagon formed to quickly
There are two votes on him. Somebody sounds a little worried!

Unvote
Vote: just_me


I will vote for whichever of just_me or Suzaku people will hammer in the next six hours. Let's at least bring 24 hours into tomorrow, come on guys.

Vote vote vote!

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby Adam H » Thu May 23, 2013 1:39 pm UTC

Vote: just_me

I'm feeling it.
-Adam

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby Diemo » Thu May 23, 2013 1:43 pm UTC

Hammer. just_me has been lynched. Role reveal in the morning.

You have 48 hours to get night actions in. If I get all actions prior to that then I will adjudicate early.

Remember you can still talk at night.
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby just_me » Thu May 23, 2013 1:45 pm UTC

dammit

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby Adam H » Thu May 23, 2013 1:47 pm UTC

Ooooo interesting we can talk at night. I wonder if there's a way we can use this to our advantage? I can't really think of anything.
-Adam

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby cemper93 » Thu May 23, 2013 2:11 pm UTC

If there should indeed be many killing roles, we might have a vigilante and could vote for their target .Though to be honest, I'd rather have them withhold on N1 anyway.

Other than that, not many ideas. We don't have any new information until dusk.

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby Adam H » Thu May 23, 2013 7:43 pm UTC

The new information we have is that none of us will be killed before using our night actions, and just_me cannot use his night action.

So... yeah I dunno.

There are two problems with going along with a collectively chosen vig target. One is that scum will have input (I don't really think this is a problem because it pressures scum into not picking their scumbuddies), and the second is that scum will not target the vig target so we'll definitely have two dead townies if we misfire.
-Adam

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby UniqueScreenname » Thu May 23, 2013 7:56 pm UTC

Are we going to hold people to the same standards as far as posting goes? I don't think most people will be used to this and just won't post because they think it's night (which it is, but they'll just think of normal night rules).
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby Adam H » Thu May 23, 2013 8:03 pm UTC

It would be courteous to post something just to let us know you have nothing to say. Otherwise we don't know if you have something really important to say but RL is getting in the way.
-Adam

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby Suzaku » Fri May 24, 2013 1:17 am UTC

I have nothing interesting to say :twisted:
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby UniqueScreenname » Fri May 24, 2013 2:52 am UTC

Only thing I have is that thudworm has gone up slightly in my opinion since her response.
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby lynx » Fri May 24, 2013 8:04 am UTC

Nothing to report, will read through properly when I feel less like death.

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby thudworm » Fri May 24, 2013 8:28 am UTC

Nothing to add right now, will want to see how the night pans out, and get flips from just_me and whoever dies in the night (if anyone).

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby Diemo » Fri May 24, 2013 2:56 pm UTC

Seven look at each other in distrust. Some here are part of a gang of scum, and some are poor innocents who were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Who is who? One steps forward and proposes that instead of a thankless battle, they choose who is the most scummy and lynch them. But how will we choose, the shout goes up. Simple majority rules! The accusations fly, with Adam H suspecting thudworm, Suzaku suspecting lynx, cemper suspecting Adam, and more paranoia by the minute. Eventually, however, it was settled that just_me was scum, and they closed in on him, six against one. He tried to fight, but even as he stepped towards cemper to defend himself, Adam came behind him and shanked him in the back. just_me fell, and there was a blinding flash of light. After the second that eyes took to readjust to the gloom of the dome, everyone was startled to see that just_me was no longer the only person who was dead! Both Adam H and Suzaku had knifes sticking from there back, but it is impossible to say who had done the deed.

just_me was lynched. He was a town vigilante.
Adam H is dead. He was a town vigilante.
Suzaku is dead. He was a mafia goon.

Four alive. Three to lynch

D2 commences now. Deadline is in 6 days (96 (base)+ 31 (banked) +24 (weekend) hours).
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby Suzaku » Fri May 24, 2013 3:19 pm UTC

Bah. You bastards.
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby cemper93 » Fri May 24, 2013 9:06 pm UTC

We're at MYLO. Claim time!

I'm - drum roll - a town vigilante. Hence claim time. Last night I withheld. I thought that would be the best thing to do, and it turned out I was right: I would have shot Adam because I felt that he slightly buddied just_me yesterday by trying to get Suzaku lynched just after I posted my large attack post on just_me. Well, I was wrong about just_me, and therefore wrong about Adam too.

Granted, misfiring on Adam wouldn't have changed things, but night results would have been more difficult to read:
As things stand, I think it's fairly obvious that Adam targeted Suzaku and scum killed Adam. Unless there is a fourth vigilante, plus scum don't have a nightkill/withheld last night, both of which I think is pretty unlikely.

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby thudworm » Sat May 25, 2013 3:34 am UTC

We seem to have a few vigs so far- add me to the list. I'm also a vig, and Suzaku was my kill. I was quite sure of just_me being scum, and his reactions shown here:
lynx wrote:
just_me wrote:I don't really see why everyone is now going for Suzaku.

just_me wrote:Because the Suzaku bandwagon formed to quickly

There are two votes on him. Somebody sounds a little worried!

really made me sure that Suzaku was scum also.

I guess one out of two from D1 isn't too bad.

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby UniqueScreenname » Sat May 25, 2013 12:34 pm UTC

Great. I am also a town vig. I withheld last night. I really wanted to see what would come out of the lynch before I decided who I thought was scum. Sorry for the short post, can't reread right now. I'm going to a wedding and have to get ready.
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby lynx » Sat May 25, 2013 4:56 pm UTC

I also shot Suzaku last night, I'd have shot just_me if he wasn't lynched but all that matters is that I was right. :D

Being much less hungover than yesterday, I can now try a little analysis. So who is left?
cemper - the towniest so far IMO. Claiming what was presumably the scum kill is a little iffy IMO, as it seems to me that he could be covering his bases in case of trackers or watchers. The rest of his content has been good, he has been scum-hunting even if he isn't really sticking with his convictions. His suspicion of just_me sounded genuine and had a fair amount of analysis behind it. I'd say 80% town.
thudworm - has been playing very safely. Seemed to be quite keen to play up the chances of a mislynch D1, and stood down unequivocally once questioned.
USN - the most likely scum, IMO. Has offered very little content despite a fair few posts. Attacked Adam for shaky reasons and accused others of active lurking in her own one-line posts. Other than a rather unrewarding analysis, does not seem to care who is lynched.

I'm more sure of USN than I can normally claim to be (I have a history of misreading her for scum) and despite thudworm being a little scummy I'd probably just about put my money on her being the last scummer.

But as it is MYLO, plan is that we no-lynch tonight while ALL townies withhold their kills. Scum can kill one of us, after which we should pick correctly tomorrow.
Lynching today would be silly and would probably hand scum the game (a fact USN would normally notice). In fact, I'm pretty sure it's her.

Vote: No Lynch

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby cemper93 » Sat May 25, 2013 6:07 pm UTC

Wow, 5-2 with every townie as a vigilante looks slightly fishy. I mean, that's a lot of extra power for town there.
However, I think we should indeed pretend that it was set up like this: If we would be at 2-2 today, it would be extremely unlikely for town to win (both townies vote correctly today, tiebreaker results in a scum lynch, at night at least one townie fires correctly and the other doesn't misfire if they are targeted by scum).

So, let's devise a strategy for the 3-1 scenario. I don't like lynx' proposal because he misses an obvious alternative strategy.

Lynx: If you are 80% sure that I'm town (which is a lot, I guess?), why don't we lynch USN, let thudworm vig you and let you vig thudworm? This way, we either win today because USN was the scum, or we win this night because either
1) thudworm is scum and vigs town!you or town!me, which leaves town!me or town!you, respectively, alive and ends the game in favor of town or
2) thudworm is town and vigs scum!you, which ends the game in favor of town.

Now, I know I'm town, and I'm the only one who definitely has to be town for this plan to work. However, I'd understand if any of you had concerns, since I have to admit that I am not sufficiently convinced of anybody's townieness to agree to this plan with somebody else as the left-alive townie that it requires. On the other hand, this strategy has the beauty of also possibly resulting in a town win in the 2-2 scenario (it works if USN is scum and the tiebreaker works in our favor - this is a 50/50 odds, which is as good as town can get at 2-2).

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby UniqueScreenname » Sun May 26, 2013 3:36 am UTC

lynx wrote:USN - the most likely scum, IMO. Has offered very little content despite a fair few posts. Attacked Adam for shaky reasons and accused others of active lurking in her own one-line posts. Other than a rather unrewarding analysis, does not seem to care who is lynched.

Well, there's a smear campaign if I've ever seen one. It is really difficult to actively lurk with one-line posts. It's really the longer posts that allow you to look like you're saying a lot when you're really filling the game with fluff. Also, if you didn't notice, I backed off Adam. I wouldn't call it an attack by any means. And the not caring who's lynched part you entirely made up. Yesterday, I was trying to choose between thud, cemper, and just_me. Thud made me feel a little better, so I wanted to try to choose between just_me and cemper, but then the hammer fell, so I didn't have a chance to vote. cemper never even got to say anything. I don't know if I've ever seen a more baseless attack on me ever, and I really am trying hard not to OMGUS you, but that's so far from accurate that I'm inclined to believe you made it up with ulterior motives.

Like I said, thudworm has given me the best impression, but she is a decent scum player. cemper spent practically all of D1 tunneling on just_me, which would be great if he was scum, but as he was town, it doesn't at all instill the confidence in me that lynx seems to have in him. And so again, I lean towards lynx being scum.

I think the idea of picking one person to keep alive will prove difficult, as I generally have trouble trusting people. Unless it's me that stays alive, I will not feel sure that town will win.
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby lynx » Sun May 26, 2013 4:14 am UTC

Yay, drunk mafia. It's 5am so I'll be brief.

cemper, I basically don't want to decide a game based on my town reads. I am far better at detecting scum-tells than the town equivalent.
As shown in a few recent games, my town-dar has caused me to ignore a couple of good scum players in my suspicions(thdl, I'm looking at you).

And a response from USN, but I'm pissed and she's a good scum player so not much point trying to decipher it now.
I'll try to recover sufficiently tomorrow to give it a go. Until then, stay classy!

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby cemper93 » Sun May 26, 2013 11:53 am UTC

I am not comfortable with a NL today since I wouldn't know how that could give us any more information. In fact, I'd rather have us leave USN or thudworm alive and playing my strategy than voting NL. Right now, lynx is on top of my scum list for first claiming he's pretty sure I'm town, and then saying that he doesn't want to end the game based on that, so I'd rather not have him as the last person.

Note that if we play my strategy, the chance for a town win at 3-1 today is at 75% with random lynching. If we wait until tomorrow, the chance will only be 33% because we have to lynch correctly. That is a huge loss, and IMO it can't be at all offset by "gathering information".

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby lynx » Sun May 26, 2013 3:57 pm UTC

I don't know if you're intentionally skewing those statistics, but I'm pretty sure you're wrong. And I'll tell you why when I'm in less pain.

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby Diemo » Mon May 27, 2013 12:49 pm UTC

Votals:
No Lynch (1) - lynx

Deadline is Thursday at 10pm
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby cemper93 » Mon May 27, 2013 1:18 pm UTC

Lynx doesn't seem to have actually found an error in my maths, so let's get on with it. First, to determine who is left alive:
Vote: USN
Don't self-vote on this one, that would defeat the purpose. Once we have determined a winner, we can just lynch one of the other three and have hopefully won.

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby lynx » Mon May 27, 2013 11:02 pm UTC

Hi guys, sorry for disappearing. I went out of town with a friend at short notice and am now back but exhausted. I'll be on tomorrow to have a think about both strategies, and for now will unvote. Deadline is Thursday evening so we might even bank a little time!

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby UniqueScreenname » Tue May 28, 2013 2:03 am UTC

I'm not sure who I would say is towniest other than myself. Cemper's content certainly has improved. Thudworm has only had one post today. I might pick cemper, but I said before I wouldn't feel really comfortable keeping someone other than myself alive. However, I totally get you guys not wanting that. That just means we'd need to find another way.
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby thudworm » Tue May 28, 2013 2:47 pm UTC

Sorry for the absence, work has been stressful.

Cemper's idea is an interesting one, and I think we should go for it. It's pretty much the same choice we'll have to make at LYLO, but instead of deciding who gets lynched we have to decide who stays alive.
Obviously everyone would be happiest with being the person left alive, but a choice has to be made.

Right now I'd say I'm happiest with considering cemper the towniest, USN closer to neutral, and lynx scummiest. Mostly gut feelings deciding that right now, when it's not almost 1 am I'll actually find the posts that give me those impressions.

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby cemper93 » Tue May 28, 2013 3:04 pm UTC

Unvote
USN wrote:However, I totally get you guys not wanting that. That just means we'd need to find another way.

That just gave you a lot of scum points, especially since I said that I might want that. And you do feel you could with high certainty pick scum tomorrow, but not pick town today? Moreover, that last sentence reads like you just wait for somebody to agree with you so you won't be killed.

Vote: thudworm

So, there.

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby UniqueScreenname » Tue May 28, 2013 5:29 pm UTC

1. I didn't say what the other way would be. You're putting words in my posts.
2. All I meant was that I don't blame you if you don't trust me. That's the nature of the game.

That superagressive reaction over nothing makes me really unwilling to go along with what you say. You're pushing this too hard.
PolakoVoador wrote:Pizza is never a question, pizza is always the answer.
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby cemper93 » Tue May 28, 2013 6:44 pm UTC

USN wrote: You're pushing this too hard.
Because it's a ridiculously easy way of winning this game.

USN wrote:1. I didn't say what the other way would be. You're putting words in my posts.
So what would that other way be, then?

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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby UniqueScreenname » Tue May 28, 2013 10:41 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:That just gave you a lot of scum points, especially since I said that I might want that.

I just noticed this. What do you think is my angle by saying you may not want the last one alive to be me? How is that a scum tactic?
cemper93 wrote: what would that other way be, then?
I don't know. That was my point. We've been so focused on two scenarios, we haven't thought about any other possibilities.
PolakoVoador wrote:Pizza is never a question, pizza is always the answer.
poxic wrote:When we're stuck, flailing, and afraid, that's usually when we're running into the limitations of our old ways of doing things. Something new is being born. Stick around and find out what it is.

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cemper93
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby cemper93 » Wed May 29, 2013 7:02 am UTC

USN wrote:I just noticed this. What do you think is my angle by saying you may not want the last one alive to be me? How is that a scum tactic?

Ah, true. I guess I'm getting a little ragey because things move so slowly. Town points re-awarded.

USN wrote:We've been so focused on two scenarios, we haven't thought about any other possibilities.

There aren't that many other scenarios. If we lynch today, we might as well play my strategy, for if we lynch and not lynch scum, we would otherwise have lost tomorrow. Of course we could just let people shoot whoever they want, but that might lead to everyone being dead (which is a Mafia win) and the probability of hitting scum this way isn't higher.
If we NL today, but vig in the night, we're worse off than if we lynch since it's a definite loose at 2:2. If we NL and then play my strategy, we have lost if the scum is not among those who are supposed to shoot each other (50/50), since they could then just shoot the survivor and have won, even though they would get killed themselves.
If we wait until tomorrow, we have no possibilities left but lynching correctly. If we mislynch tomorrow, it's 1:1 into the night, which is definitely a Mafia win since that means that everyone will be dead.

So, I vote USN as our survivor and
Vote: lynx
to get lynched, since he hasn't followed up on his promise to analyze my strategy, still has a vote on NL (scum trying to avoid this strategy being played?) and has actually mostly lurked the entire day.

Deadline is in 36 hours or so.

Survivor votals:
USN (1) - cemper93

Inofficial lynch votals:
lynx (1) - cemper93
No Lynch (1) - lynx

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UniqueScreenname
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby UniqueScreenname » Wed May 29, 2013 10:45 am UTC

Yeah, lynx is definitely acting like scum that got backed into a corner.

Vote: lynx
PolakoVoador wrote:Pizza is never a question, pizza is always the answer.
poxic wrote:When we're stuck, flailing, and afraid, that's usually when we're running into the limitations of our old ways of doing things. Something new is being born. Stick around and find out what it is.

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cemper93
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Re: ThunderDome Mafia D1: Alliances

Postby cemper93 » Wed May 29, 2013 11:12 am UTC

Still no survivor vote from you?


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