The Shogun's Folly [0-3] - Shogunate (Spies) Win

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby wam » Tue Oct 22, 2013 5:06 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:I agree with having DJ Open Up to either wam or lynx. The way this is going, it's looking like Tormod, wam, DJ and I are resistance, but we will obviously await the results.


It has to be to me. As otherwise if he opens up to lynx and lynx says spy we have no way of invesitagting lynx. As I can't give overheard conversation to myself.

At the beginning of each new mission, the team leader will be given two plot powers (chosen randomly from a pool of 15) to distribute amongst the players, except himself.


From the OP.

I want DJ's agreement to this plan and I will execute it.

Just to be clear, DJ will open up to me. If it comes back resistance we give him overheard conversation*. If it comes back spy we give lynx overheard conversation and he checks me.

* I would suggest adam, as I believe tormod is more likely to be town due to mission 1. But if we get to that point I will let DJ make his own mind up.
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Djehutynakht » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:00 pm UTC

*sigh*

I disagree, but I really don't have the technical power to change it.

I'm fairly confident Lynx is town, so if this happens I reserve the right to open up to Lynx instead.

We can't do all of this on 100% confirmation. The essence of Mafia as a genre means we're going to have to rely on someone's word eventually. Anyone who tells you to do this on 100% "fact" is deceiving you.

In any case, if absolutely nobody is willing to go along with my idea of checking the [M, T, A] team, I suppose I can go along with opening up. Or lynx can. Either one of us. And they who art confirmed Loyal shall use Overheard.
_________________________


I honestly still don't trust this idea.

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby wam » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:05 pm UTC

Ok what would you do, spell it all out? Your plans all fall down on the same point?

Djehutynakht wrote:I'm fairly confident Lynx is town, so if this happens I reserve the right to open up to Lynx instead.


And I'm fairly confident that one of you is a spy, due to process of elimination.

So if you open up to lynx and he says your a spy we are left in a quandry. Whereas if you open up to me and I say spy lynx can investigate me and check the accuracy of what I have said.

Also with this play we have 100% odds of finding an con resistance.

1/3 odds of finding a spy and clearing 2 others. Which should be enough to win the game.
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby wam » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:08 pm UTC

EBWOP 100% odds of finding 2 resistance or 1 spy and 3 resistance.

You come back resistance then check one of adam or tormod who comes back resistance - 2 res
You come back spy, lynx checks me, either you or I am con spy, you and lynx an therefore con res - 2 res, 1 spy
You come back resistance then check one of adm or tomro who comes back spy - 3 res, 1 spy

So I can't see a better plan, that doesn't invovle trusting you 100%.

Look at it from our PoV

You check 2 out of Mpolo, adam, tormod and then you work out the spy, but how do we know your not the other one and are clearing you spymate and therefore we lose?
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby mpolo » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:23 pm UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:I honestly still don't trust this idea.


Since we know that Diemo is a spy, and that there is at least one spy among {Adam, Tormod, myself} there is either 0 or 1 spy among {you, lynx, wam}.

If you reveal to wam, then:
If he says "town", you have to be town (if he is scum, there aren't two scum around, so you are town and he told the truth)
If he says "scum", we know that either you or wam is scum, and that lynx has to be town.

However, as wam says, he is more free to distribute the second power in a meaningful way if you reveal to him rather than to lynx.

Either way, we get the same information from THIS power (we get exactly one guaranteed townie), but for the effective use of the second power, it is better for wam to get the result.

We should get a second guaranteed scum from the second power, which gives us a very high probability of getting the right people for this mission, better than having one of the other group "Open Up" (simply because there is no way to know for sure that there aren't two scum in the {Adam, Tormod, me} group. [I think it highly unlikely because of Tormod's play today, and knowing my own alignment.]
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby wam » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:50 pm UTC

I'm waiting for DJ to confirm agreement to the plan just to make sure, still have 2 and half days to deadlin.
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Djehutynakht » Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:17 am UTC

Ah to hell with it. I'm still very suspicious on the whole idea. But Wam and Lynx both cannot be spies. And in the end, Wam has the capability.

And I'm still probably going to downvote something with someone I suspect on it.



But wait... the plan is that:

-I open up to Wam
-Lynx investigates Wam

But if Lynx says Wam is scum, then we have no idea whether Wam is truly scum or if Lynx is scum.

How would we fix this problem?

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Tormod » Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:20 am UTC

No, the plan is you open up to wam, and depending on the result we decide what to do. if you come back town, you will look at adam or me.

only if you come back spy is Lynx cleared and will investigate instead of you

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Tormod » Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:22 am UTC

But if Lynx says Wam is scum, then we have no idea whether Wam is truly scum or if Lynx is scum.

How would we fix this problem?


if wam says you are scum, Lynx is town, and his result is trustworthy. what are you afraid of? That we'll all know you are a spy in a litle while?

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Djehutynakht » Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:29 am UTC

Tormod, Incendiary rhetoric is a decent scumtell.


But if Wam says I am a Town, the fact is, he could very well be a spy who is lying to escape investigation. And if the spyteam was, hypothetically, [Wam, mpolo] then there is no possible way that we could find either of them through this method.

They'd confirm a townie, but would still hide.

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Tormod » Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:58 am UTC

The only one that would be confirmed town if the result on you is town, is you. We all knew that, welcome to the Club :P

Also I think you are flimsy at best, but it may just be Your style :S Incindiary rhetoric, first time I've heard that ^^

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Djehutynakht » Wed Oct 23, 2013 2:55 am UTC

Well it is.

If we're only verifying one person, that's very low results.

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Tormod » Wed Oct 23, 2013 2:57 am UTC

1 Power 1 person, 2 Powers 2 persons, or if we had done it the other way possibly more. If you can hit a spy between adam and myself, then even better.

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Djehutynakht » Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:34 am UTC

So basically, we're saying...

-We can find out if Djehutynakht is town (maybe) and we can find out if one of [Adam, Tormod] is scum, if he is.

In any case I'm distrustful, but I do not control the powers.

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Tormod » Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:42 am UTC

First Power will eather give you as a 100% resistance or Lynx as a 100% resistance.

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby wam » Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:48 am UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:But if Wam says I am a Town, the fact is, he could very well be a spy who is lying to escape investigation. And if the spyteam was, hypothetically, [Wam, mpolo] then there is no possible way that we could find either of them through this method.


So is this a spy claim then?

Basically the bolded section is wrong.

As there mathematically can only be 1 spy in the group wam lynx dj

Therefore if I say your town I am either town telling the truth or spy telling the truth....

If I say your a spy I am eitehr town telling the truth of spy lying, but lynx must be town so will check me and find out which one it is.

And yes we wouldn;t find that one but we would for example prove that DJ and adam are town.

And that at least one of mpolo tormod is a spy and probably one of lynx wam is a spy.

So I'm going to

Give Open up to Dj

Please open up to me as otherwise we could be here for a while.
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Tormod » Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:20 pm UTC

With the way dj has been acting I would be surprised if he flips resistance, but time will tell :)

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Suzaku » Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:29 pm UTC

Power distribution noted and acted upon. I will announce when the result has been PMed and to whom.
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Djehutynakht » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:42 pm UTC

Clarification Wam:

By 'lying' I mean 'decieving'. It isn't a factual lie, but it a lie in spirit... a deception. even thougu me being town is true, the truth is being used to distract.

In any case I've opened up to Wam.

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby wam » Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:28 pm UTC

Ah that makes more sense.

Well am awaiting the PM from the mod

Cue drum roll please
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby wam » Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:18 pm UTC

Right so here we go

Dj is

Spoiler:
RESISTANCE


Much to my surprise.

Give DJ overheard conversation
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Suzaku » Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:19 pm UTC

Djehutynakht has Opened Up to wam.

The result has been sent.

Reminder: The deadline is 2013/10/25 16:00 JST (7:00 UTC). If no team is proposed before this deadline, this attempt to form a team will count as rejected.
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Tormod » Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:20 pm UTC

That is a surprise indeed, but it was the better outcome, so thats good.

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Suzaku » Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:24 pm UTC

Give DJ overheard conversation


Power distribution noted and acted upon. I will announce when the power has been used and on whom.
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Djehutynakht » Thu Oct 24, 2013 1:46 am UTC

I feel like I'm falling in to some sort of trap... but goddamit! I have to learn!

Tormod! Goddammit! Tell me your secrets1

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Tormod » Thu Oct 24, 2013 2:07 am UTC

I think you should bold it to make it official. But objectivedly I would have gone for Adam, but thats life :P

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Tormod » Thu Oct 24, 2013 2:08 am UTC

Objectivedly I would.... haha

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Djehutynakht » Thu Oct 24, 2013 5:39 am UTC

Night 2 will have another 25ish hours to go, unless I get significant extension requests through PMs (or I get frankly too caught up in my essay to write up a day post)

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Tormod » Thu Oct 24, 2013 5:40 am UTC

Wrong game!

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Suzaku » Thu Oct 24, 2013 8:27 am UTC

@Dj - I didn't see that post this morning as it wasn't bolded; my apologies. PM will be sent in a few moments.
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Djehutynakht » Thu Oct 24, 2013 9:35 am UTC

I have received Tormod's alignment.

HE IS A SPY!!! A DIRTY SPY!!!!!


...just kidding.


No... uh... Tormod flipped town.

Just to repeat:

Tormod is Loyal

Boy... this is... erm.... awkward. I'm with you there Lynx. I did not see that coming.

Apologies Tormod. Time for me to create some new logic.
________________________________________

So...

Right now, we know the following:

SPY:
-Diemo

LOYAL:
-Djehutynakht
-Tormod (odd bed-fellows, no?)

USURE:
-Wam
-Adam
-Lynx
-Mpolo


Now... let me do analysis:

There is at least one spy among [Adam, Mpolo]
There is one spy among [Wam, Lynx] provided Adam and Mpolo are not spies.


One pair I immediately have to turn to is Wam and Mpolo. Wam, obviously, could have intentionally flipped me town, knowing that if bestowing onto me Overheard Conversation I could never find either him nor mpolo... it would have been impossible to investigate either. Wam would have to be scum for this to be possible, and Mpolo was the only one of the team I couldn't reach.

I also need to question Adam. Quite obviously, Adam proposed the team. It's possible he played deep gambit in No Confidence. If Adam flips scum it also would mean a higher likelihood that Mpolo is scum (that Adam appointed a second scum, and it can't be Tormod)

Lynx... frankly I'm suspicious of him because he's the outside link.



So... any team herefore to proposed must include Tormod and Djehutynakht, along with a third. Logic dictates that third will be the person proposing the team.


So... first step up: Do we trust Wam? Do we wait for Lynx?


Opinions? In terms of peoples' word Tormod's (and mine) will have to be considered the most honest. Not necessarily accurate analysis, but we can be believed, I believe.


I'm not sure I am willing to vote on Wam. Wam, now that I think about it, had to call me town. If he didn't, Lynx would have to investigate him, and he would come up scum. , if he was one.

That's not a reason to distrust Wam, but it's a reason not to explicitly trust him.

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Djehutynakht » Thu Oct 24, 2013 9:39 am UTC

I've wanted to use this:
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby lynx » Thu Oct 24, 2013 10:39 am UTC

Told you wam was scum! Sending him now would be game over, I'll reject anything including him. The trouble is, Diemo will be able to distribute powers after me.

I'm going to propose DJ-Tormod-lynx if we haven't lost already. Afterwards, we'd need to determine which of Adam and mpolo we can trust. I don't relish that prospect, but choosing right would win us the game. So far I'm tempted to agree with DJ:
Wam, obviously, could have intentionally flipped me town, knowing that if bestowing onto me Overheard Conversation I could never find either him nor mpolo... it would have been impossible to investigate either. Wam would have to be scum for this to be possible, and Mpolo was the only one of the team I couldn't reach.

The only chance we have to win this game is to reject wam's team, accept mine, then reject any team mpolo submits containing both him and wam.
Afterwards we have two con town in a row followed by Adam, who I think is probably also resistance.

In fact, would it be too ridiculous to reject every team until mpolo, then have him choose DJ-Tormod-lynx?
That way Tormod hands out the next powers instead of Diemo. If mpolo chooses the wrong team, we still have one more try with a confirmed townie proposing.
Every single Resistance member would have to accept the final team though. Which means it can't include wam. ;)

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby mpolo » Thu Oct 24, 2013 11:05 am UTC

I know with certainty that Tormod, DJ and I are town.

One of wam/lynx has to be town as well.

Which means that any proposal except wam/Tormod/DJ will be an admission of scummitude, and lynx must propose lynx/Tormod/DJ as the next possibility.

Tormod, DJ and I have to determine which of the two is more likely town.

However, there is the question of the distribution of powers. We don't want Diemo to get them (primarily because we still need to clear me to the general public).

If we fail four proposals, Tormod will get to do the last one, which we will have to accept. Assuming it passes, we have a guaranteed pass for Mission 4 by sending the same team. Hopefully, we can get some information from the plot powers in 4 to make it clear that I am the fourth resistance.
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby mpolo » Thu Oct 24, 2013 11:05 am UTC

(i.e. on Mission 4, the same team with one additional member, whose loyalty won't affect success of the mission)
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby mpolo » Thu Oct 24, 2013 11:07 am UTC

The point of failing until we get to Tormod is so the DJ distributes powers on Mission 4.
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby lynx » Thu Oct 24, 2013 11:11 am UTC

mpolo, if you propose DJ-Tormod-lynx and it's accepted, both Tormod and DJ will get to distribute powers.

I vote we go with that idea, actually. But first we need to reject wam's proposal.

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby wam » Thu Oct 24, 2013 12:21 pm UTC

Well I still think the odds of there being 2 spies that did 1 fail 1 pass on that missions is low so I think it's 50/50 adam vs mpolo and from your pov 50/50 me and lynx

Therefore I am going to reject any team with lynx on it.
Propos

wam
DJ
Tormod


AS that's the only 100% resistance team I can name.
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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby lynx » Thu Oct 24, 2013 1:50 pm UTC

If anyone other than Diemo or wam plans to vote yes, please tell me now so I can at least try to change your mind.

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Re: The Shogun's Folly [0-2] - M3-1 - To kill a Snake

Postby Suzaku » Thu Oct 24, 2013 2:09 pm UTC

Since the ambush of the raiding force there had been a change in the atmosphere in the camp. Machinations and plots, wheels within wheels. Amongst all the confusion, wam proposed a team to ride forth and strike against the Shogunate general...

The following team has been proposed for Mission 3:

M1: wam
M2: Djehutynakht
M3: Tormod

Please submit your votes to accept or reject this team by PM (Except for Tormod and Diemo, who as Opinion Makers must vote publicly in thread).
Should any team member be a spy, xe must also submit xyr mission disposition by PM.

The deadline for submissions is 2013/10/26 11:00 JST (02:00 UTC), just about 36 hours from this post. Any votes not received by this deadline will default to the responses described in the OP or as updated by individual players.
If either of Tormod's or Diemo's votes default, the deadline will be extended to allow other players to react.

Discussions may continue in thread, but no publicly posted votes (except Tormod's and Diemo's) will count.
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