C9++ Game Over: Victory Howl!

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wam
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Re: C9++ D4: The Final Four

Postby wam » Thu Jan 16, 2014 7:01 pm UTC

So given the numbers I really need to pick up my game in this.

Looking at the below, My gut feel is that there is probably only 1 mafia left. (I will let someone else run all the probabilities).

We have enough lynchs that we should be able to get some decent clues off all the wagons. My main worry is an SK who can hide in the background.

What I was thinking is it worth NL

SO in a 3/1 situation we get the kill narrowing the possibilites down.
If its 2/1/1 the only way for town to win is if the kills cross so we should definatly NL.

Thoughts?

6. moody7277
7. Adam H
8. wam
9. sco

Dead Players
1. Madge - lynched D1, Werewolf
2. mpolo - killed N1, Vanilla Town
10. UniqueScreenname - killed N1, Vanilla Town
5. Xenomortis - lynched D2, Werewolf
11. micdi - killed N2, Vamilla Town
12. kalira - killed N2, Vigilante
3. Djehutynakht - lynched D3, Vanilla Town
4. Lawrencelot Vanilla Town
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Adam H
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Re: C9++ D4: The Final Four

Postby Adam H » Thu Jan 16, 2014 7:50 pm UTC

OK, if there's an SK, he has kill immunity (the only variation he doesn't have kill immunity is if there are 6 T's - we know that's not the case because there are at least 2 V's), so we have to be careful about that.

If there's an SK, I can think of several plausible possibilities for the NKs:
1) on N1, either the mafia and SK got blocked by a roleblock or doctor, or they both targeted mpolo, or the SK targeted USN (I would assume targeting a scummy player in order to leave the possibility of claiming vig open). kalira and/or Lawrence targeted USN.
2) on N2, kalira withheld her kill, lawrence withheld his kill, and both mafia and SK kills went through.
3) on N3, either the mafia or SK kill got blocked, they both targeted Lawrence, or the mafia targeted the SK and therefore the kill failed.

So yeah, I think there's still a huge possibility of the SK being alive.

But... if there's an SK tonight, town almost certainly loses unless we have a power role that can block a kill tonight. The only way town could win is if 0 townies die tonight when there are 2 kills out there.

So after all that, let's assume there's no SK. ;)

Then we're at 3-1, which is "MYLO", meaning we will not be lynching today.

If anyone is an innocent child, set it up so that you will be revealed tomorrow morning (not tonight).

If there's a cop with a town or scum result on a living player, probably claim, but it's debatable. There's probably not 2 C's, so there would likely be millers in the game. And we know 1 of the mafia is the godfather (and the SK may or may not also be cop immune; but yeah we're assuming no SK so whatever).

Doctors should not claim.

Roleblockers should definitely claim - whoever they targeted last night is not the mafia. And they can publicly claim their target tonight so that if there is a kill we know that the blocked player is town. In fact I'm pretty sure a trusted roleblocker claim would be an automatic win assuming no SK. Course, scum could easily falseclaim roleblocker; it's pretty unlikely that one is in the game.

Anyways, vote NL no matter what, but let's talk and make sure any hypothetical power roles know what they're doing.
-Adam

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Re: C9++ D4: The Final Four

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jan 17, 2014 3:03 pm UTC

Given that we can pretty well account for all the kills (USN->kalira, mpolo->wolves, micdi->kalira, kalira->wolves, Lawrencealot->wolves), Occam's razor would say that there is no SK. That would put us in TTTTTVV or TTTVV??. Since millers flip as such upon dying (add'l rule 5), and we haven't seen any, either it is no cop or a sane one. I agree that if we have a doc they should stay silent, and the innocent child should speak up now. To make sure I don't not do this later:

Vote: No lynch
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Adam H
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Re: C9++ D4: The Final Four

Postby Adam H » Fri Jan 17, 2014 5:26 pm UTC

I disagree that the innocent child should speak up now. They should try to survive the night by not claiming and then activate their power so that they are confirmed town tomorrow.
-Adam

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Re: C9++ D4: The Final Four

Postby wam » Fri Jan 17, 2014 10:45 pm UTC

I agree with adam so moody looks slightly more suspicous becase of that.
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Re: C9++ D4: The Final Four

Postby Adam H » Sun Jan 19, 2014 10:38 pm UTC

It'd be nice to hear from sco.
-Adam

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Re: C9++ D4: The Final Four

Postby Misnomer » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:18 am UTC

No Lynch: (moody7277)
Not Voting: (wam, Adam H, sco)

Soft deadline is 6pm UTC January 22nd. Sco will be prodded.
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: C9++ D4: The Final Four

Postby sco » Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:33 pm UTC

yes, sorry, been a little busy so here goes, better get some content down.
DJ flipping townie threw me a little, but I suppose them's the breaks. I don't think we can entirely rule out a SK just yet, if I was one I'd have missed last night to make us all assume that it was kalira doing all the killing and then hit us tonight, which I think would be a win move, barring any powers.
I haven't really gotten any scum pings from Adam apart from my usual paranoia over people who are too helpful and that's no reason for me to vote him.
I agree with Adam that if there's a SK it's probably moody and, going back over the days his defense of xeno on D2 seems a little suspicious, even if he did end up voting for xeno.
wam is still a little suspicious to me as well, but I'm not really getting any more than I did yesterday.

Anyway, given the very real possibility of a mafia and SK I think no lynch would be a mistake. It plays into their hands, two deaths tonight would mean that they would win, or kill two town tonight and then murder each other tomorrow and tie. I want to know what other people think of this because being pushed into a no lynch by a SK who knows that it could be a winning move for them would be a horrible way to lose this one.
Given his very definite ideas about there being no SK and us needing to NL I'd suggest moody but I want to see what everyone else thinks.
That's it for now, hopefully this'll generate enough for us to pick someone.

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Re: C9++ D4: The Final Four

Postby Adam H » Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:30 pm UTC

Say we have a mafia and an SK, and we are really really good at scumhunting and we catch both of them today.

Then what?

We lynch the mafia? Then the SK kills one of us tonight and tomorrow it's 1v1, both players vote for each other so the votes are tied and it's no lynch. Then the SK kills the last townie and wins.

If we lynch the SK it would be the same result; the mafia would win.

The only thing that would allow us to win is if we had a doctor, vigilante, or roleblocker. And even then we'd have to lynch correctly today AND the power role would have to pick correctly tonight AND we'd have to lynch correctly tomorrow.

The better option is not to lynch anyone today and hope the SK and mafia kill each other, especially since that plan also works if there's no SK, which there probably isn't.
-Adam

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Re: C9++ D4: The Final Four

Postby sco » Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:39 pm UTC

yeah, I suppose that's the best way to do it. hopefully there's been enough confusion going around. besides which, one of the SK and the mafia would have to murder the other tonight, otherwise the best they can hope for is a draw tomorrow night.

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Re: C9++ D4: The Final Four

Postby sco » Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:40 pm UTC

except the SK might have kill protection, right? that makes it a bit more problematic but hopefully we can still make it.

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Re: C9++ D4: The Final Four

Postby Adam H » Tue Jan 21, 2014 2:54 pm UTC

OK I'm fine with ending the day a little early.

Vote: No Lynch
-Adam

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Re: C9++ D4: The Final Four

Postby wam » Tue Jan 21, 2014 6:56 pm UTC

was just thinking exactly the same

vote no lynch

think thats hammer
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Re: C9++ N4: Eerie Calm

Postby Misnomer » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:31 pm UTC

No Lynch: 3 (moody7277, Adam H, wam)
Not Voting: 1 (sco)


'So it's agreed... we wait out the night and see what happens.'

Adam H and wam readily assented to moody's plan. The three stood around awkwardly in silence for another few moments, then went their separate ways.

A short distance away, sco sat by the bank of the mountain river. In the storms of the previous few days it had swollen to a powerful torrent - but today it seemed oddly peaceful. The wind too had dropped - the whispering of tree branches was almost inaudible. Sco looked up at the sky, and marvelled at how clear it was, with not a cloud in sight. Everything was still, calm even - but a melancholy sort of calm. It was as if nature was holding its breath, dreading what the inevitable march of time would bring. Sco, just like the others, knew it could only bring one thing: death.


It is now Night 4. Please get all actions in ASAP.
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby Misnomer » Fri Jan 24, 2014 12:17 am UTC

Four companions had watched the sun set the night before. Only three were to see daylight again.

The fourth, moody, was eventually found mangled and mutilated in the crawl space underneath one of the cabins. There was nothing to suggest that he had been anything other than yet another innocent victim.


moody was killed in the night - he was vanilla town.

As sco, wam, and Adam H surveyed the horrific scene, only one thought was going through their minds: the certainty that no matter what they did, the decision they made today would settle the outcome once and for all.

3 players remaining, 2 votes to lynch. I won't set a deadline yet, but please don't take too long to make a decision. Good luck everyone!
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jan 24, 2014 2:09 am UTC

We should have...camped in...the desert...
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby wam » Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:23 am UTC

I was really hoping to die so that I didn't have to make a decision. Well the first thing I need is a complete re-read so will come back after that.
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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby Adam H » Fri Jan 24, 2014 4:43 pm UTC

Well at least there's no SK.

First thing to do is get some claims. I don't mind claiming first if either of you think I'm scummy but ideally we'd make the scum claim first. And if I claim first I know that won't happen. ;)

I think I trust sco over wam right now, so I'd prefer wam to claim first. At the end of yesterday I thought sco might be the SK but it doesn't look like that's the case.
-Adam

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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby wam » Fri Jan 24, 2014 5:13 pm UTC

Not much time

I'm happy to claim first

Vanilla town

At the moment I'm more suspcious of adam but thats gut instinct rather than any evidence.
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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby Adam H » Fri Jan 24, 2014 5:48 pm UTC

Yeah, I'm Vanilla Town.
-Adam

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Re: C9++ D1: Bloodstained Snow

Postby Adam H » Fri Jan 24, 2014 8:45 pm UTC

Ideally I'd wait for sco's claim before posting, but I won't be able to post for a few days so I want to get this out there:

I reread both your posts. Here is the entirety of wam's important posting history:
wam wrote:Vote madge

As she's managed the impressive feat of making 4 posts without saying anything!

wam wrote:If madge comes up scum, I am going to put 75% on USN being a partner.

This looks to me like some light distancing that ends up backfiring when everyone jumps on the Madge bandwagon. Then later there is no additional justification for the vote on Madge. Instead he tries to implicate a townie based on Madge's lynch. Other than those two posts, there's really nothing. He said yesterday that we should NL. *thumbs up* ;)

Compare that meager content with sco who has had some good points throughout this game. He strikes me as trying hard to have original opinions; while he semi-defended Madge on D1, he also accused Xeno on D2 and then ended up being the clinching vote (granted the day was almost over and the only thing else was to do was tie the votals). He has not been afraid of changing his mind at times but he definitely has not flip-flopped based on other's opinions.

So that's why I will probably vote for wam. If I'm wrong wam I'll need some good convincing over the next few days to get me to change my mind.
-Adam

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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby sco » Sat Jan 25, 2014 6:54 am UTC

yeah, I'm vanilla town too, doesn't look like any of the power roles made it through. really not much help in the claiming, VT is the safest for a mafia to claim, right? I'm going to do a re-read too so I'll post again when I've done that.

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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby Adam H » Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:48 pm UTC

Yeah, if anyone claimed anything other than VT I was probably going to vote for them. Since I'm VT the only possible town power role would have been cop or another vig, but that would be unlikely.

So how are the rereads going? :P Consider sorting by author and only looking at the players that you care about...
-Adam

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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby wam » Mon Jan 27, 2014 8:51 pm UTC

That doesn't work for working out the lynch trains! Which tbh is what i care most about. Done days 1-3...

Should point out I'm going away on wed so am going to have limited internet from then till next week.
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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby wam » Mon Jan 27, 2014 9:05 pm UTC

What I have so far so I don't forget

Going in instinct was saying adam.
Day 1 Wagon
THis post from sco stood out to me

sco wrote:not too much of a read on anyone yet either, but the lack of posting (pot, kettle, black, I know) and suspecting Lawrencelot for analyzing himself makes me think micdi is a bit suspicious. I'm also getting a little bit of a feeling about him but not entirely sure why yet.
I'm not quite feeling the madge bandwagon just yet, I get a slightly townie feeling, something about her style strikes me as town rather than scum but I'm quite prepared to reverse this decision, just a bit of a D1 feeling.
so, here we go, taking the D1 plunge.
Vote: micdi


Wavering on the bandwagon of someone who came up scum... scummy

THen being on the micdi bandwagon with the other 2 out of 3 being scum...

Adam really didn't stand out either way.

Day 2 wagon

No posts that really stick out

What does look good for sco is that they could have saved xeno with a draw but very obv scum. Adam did a classic scum tactic of finding two people scummy (one who turned up scum) and then voting the other.

Day 3 DJ was being DJ and looking naturally scummy so was easy for scum to point at and hide.

Day 4 was pretty limited TBH.

Gut feel through the game, sco was vaguely scummy most of the way through, adam was pretty scummy early on, the beginning there was an awful lot of stats and v limited scum hunting but that flipped 180 near the end so as normal with adam I'm lost.

So based on the above I am now leaning Sco.

My worry is that sco was waiting for his read through for adam to vote me.
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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby Adam H » Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:51 pm UTC

Sco sco sco sco sco! I'm not going to vote wam until you write an incredibly thoughtful post so if that's what you are hoping for you can stop lurking already.
-Adam

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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby Misnomer » Wed Jan 29, 2014 1:28 am UTC

Votals:

None
:|
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby wam » Wed Jan 29, 2014 10:09 am UTC

Well I will cheer you up

Given that I'm going to have no internet till next week and certainly not enough time for Mafia I'm going to have to

Vote Sco

I know Ideally I should wait but I don't really have a choice as The only person you could lynch without me is me and I know I'm town.
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Re: C9++ D5: Endgame

Postby Adam H » Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:09 pm UTC

Hmmm this feels unsatisfying but to do anything else would be playing against my win condition. ;) GG

Vote: sco
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C9++ Game Over: Victory Howl!

Postby Misnomer » Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:07 pm UTC

Sco has been lynched.

The lone wolf.

How many times had the fear of that beast haunted him over the last few days?

Adam H allowed himself a chuckle. 'I suppose I am the lone wolf now', he said, turning to sco.

sco, having been decapitated by Adam several hours later, said nothing in reply.

'I really am a lone wolf', Adam said (to himself this time), with sudden realisation, 'even all the humans are dead now'. This, of course, was not technically true: wam had fled into the forest upon realising that sco was innocent, but he would be hunted down soon enough.

'I'm all alone', Adam whispered, as his thoughts carried him back to the very beginning. Yes, Misnomer had been a threat, but he had still been his friend - they had all been his friends. Surely something could have been worked out? And now he alone survived, with not even the rest of his pack for company. Had it really all been worth it?

At that moment, the full moon emerged from behind a cloud and immediately dispelled such thoughts from Adam's mind. His body shook with anticipation as he felt the wonderful, fevered madness grip his mind once again. Of course it had been worth it! He was the wolf, the hunter in the dark and the beast of nightmares! AND HE HAD WON!!!

With a victorious howl, he embraced the transformation and sped off in pursuit of wam...


Game over: werewolves win!

Thanks for playing everyone, and particularly for sticking with the game through the mafia board's dry season! Hope you all enjoyed it! :D
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: C9++ Game Over: Victory Howl!

Postby Xenomortis » Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:22 pm UTC

Well done Adam.
Although I admit I haven't been paying attention to this game since I died.
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Re: C9++ Game Over: Victory Howl!

Postby Madge » Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:45 pm UTC

Good on you, Adam! When it was you who was the last wolf standing I no longer had any doubt of our victory.
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Re: C9++ Game Over: Victory Howl!

Postby sco » Thu Jan 30, 2014 12:04 am UTC

Damnit, I wish I could have posted earlier but just got caught up in other stuff. Ah well, there were little things pinging me about Adam and things that just didn't quite fit as scummy for wam but there was a lot more the other way and realistically I probably would have voted wam and lost it anyway. Congrats Adam, well played.

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Re: C9++ Game Over: Victory Howl!

Postby Lawrencelot » Thu Jan 30, 2014 10:47 am UTC

Congratulations scum. At one point I was like 90% sure that either Adam H or kalira was the last scum, so I decided to go for it and use my action on kalira. If I didn't we might've won :(. But if I had guessed right, we would have won in like three days lol.

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Re: C9++ Game Over: Victory Howl!

Postby Adam H » Thu Jan 30, 2014 2:15 pm UTC

Thanks Misnomer, fun game!

Lucky for us that wam guessed wrong, but on the other hand maybe it was just karma for that ridiculous and unfounded Madge lynch back on D1. :lol:
-Adam

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Re: C9++ Game Over: Victory Howl!

Postby kalira » Thu Jan 30, 2014 4:38 pm UTC

Psh, unfounded my butt. She ended up being scum, didn't she? As far as you, Adam, I thought you were seeming too helpful. Oh well, well played in any case. Random question... after my death you said something about the possibility of a backup vig being activated -- was that a misread on your part (since there were only one-shots, no backup vigs), or scum!Adam trying to mislead? (Just curious, you don't have to answer if you feel like it will give away some grand meta strategy :D )

Interesting I was killed by (another) vig. Once Lawrencelot was killed and revealed as a one-shot, I figured he must have killed micdi and I was killed by the mafia. Didn't seem like scum would have gone for him since he was still somewhat under suspicion. I guess I was just as suspicious though.
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Re: C9++ Game Over: Victory Howl!

Postby kalira » Thu Jan 30, 2014 4:42 pm UTC

EBWOP

Oh, and Lawrencelot, don't feel too bad. I only used my vig NK once, and I misfired as well... Sorry USN! Really wish I could've subtly intro'd the idea of second voting for who the vig should kill, just to get a better feel, but since nobody really talked too much about how Adam was pinging them, I'm guessing he wouldn't have been a favorited target for that either. Darn crafty werewolf.
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Re: C9++ Game Over: Victory Howl!

Postby Adam H » Thu Jan 30, 2014 4:50 pm UTC

kalira wrote: Random question... after my death you said something about the possibility of a backup vig being activated -- was that a misread on your part (since there were only one-shots, no backup vigs), or scum!Adam trying to mislead? (Just curious, you don't have to answer if you feel like it will give away some grand meta strategy :D )
Just me misremembering. Hard to keep track of which power roles could be backups and which could be one-shots.

Ah crap now my grand meta strategy is shot to hell!

As for why I killed micdi... It's always hard to tell who the townies are going to suspect. micdi was a clinching vote for Xeno so I thought everyone would assume he was town.
-Adam

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Re: C9++ Game Over: Victory Howl!

Postby mpolo » Thu Jan 30, 2014 7:21 pm UTC

Congratulations, scum. After you killed me N1, I have to admit to not paying a lot of attention to your winning, though.
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Re: C9++ Game Over: Victory Howl!

Postby micdi » Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:15 am UTC

Yep, good win scum.

And yeah, at least I got the Xeno vote right, though apparently that got me killed :)
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