[L] Seaside Mafia: Game Over!

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SDK
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby SDK » Wed Jul 02, 2014 9:22 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote:
SDK wrote:BoomFrog laid the first vote, but I made the case that got mpolo lynched. The wagon wouldn't have happened without me, but BoomFrog did start it.

Okay. Do you think BoomFrog voting mpolo first makes him look town?

Yeah, at least a bit. He never pushes that read. He never follows through with more content or questioning. Pressure was building a bit, but that was more after mpolo's response. Hmm.

Okay, so you think BigNose is scum (obviously). BoomFrog is scum too?
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D1 - Another Dead Mayor

Postby Lawrencelot » Wed Jul 02, 2014 9:55 pm UTC

Found something else about BigNose that I forgot: mpolo left him out in his player analysis here: viewtopic.php?f=53&t=109101&start=240#p3606495


freezeblade wrote:
Lawrencelot wrote:About targeting Lunch Meat: why would anyone say they targeted Lunch Meat? Please explain now or after everybody has claimed. I don't get what we could gain from this...(snip)


I think the concept is that someone could have been a tracker/watcher who has some information on people's targets, and they hope to catch someone not telling the truth. Non-town would be more likely to deny targetting the person who was killed, as the other option is to claim a false power.

Of course, this is built upon a big if.

Yes but the tracker/watcher already got that information right? Scum lying about it doesn't give them new information, and I don't see any other role targeting Lunch Meat except in some unlikely situations. But I also don't see how it hurts town so let's not discuss this further, thanks for the explanation.

SDK wrote:
Lawrencelot wrote:
SDK wrote:BoomFrog laid the first vote, but I made the case that got mpolo lynched. The wagon wouldn't have happened without me, but BoomFrog did start it.

Okay. Do you think BoomFrog voting mpolo first makes him look town?

Yeah, at least a bit. He never pushes that read. He never follows through with more content or questioning. Pressure was building a bit, but that was more after mpolo's response. Hmm.

Okay, so you think BigNose is scum (obviously). BoomFrog is scum too?

BoomFrog didn't look scummy to me after his mpolo vote, since I read everything knowing mpolo was scum. But someone said he was wishy-washy about this. I looked back and could not find this: BoomFrog has never really backed out of the mpolo wagon, and although distancing is a possibility, it does not seem likely to me. So no, I don't think BoomFrog is scum at the moment.

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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D1 - Another Dead Mayor

Postby Misnomer » Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:14 pm UTC

Votals:
Freezeblade (2): Yoshimitsu, BigNose
Boomfrog (2): UniqueScreenname, Silknor
BigNose (2): BoomFrog, moody7277
lawrencelot (1): SDK
Not Voting (6): Suzaku, wam, dimochka, madge, Freezeblade, lawrencelot

7 votes to lynch.


Deadline in roughly 20 hours, 45 minutes.
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby SDK » Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:25 pm UTC

Unvote.

Your case is compelling. However, I still don't see BigNose as bussing wam in this post. I basically know wam is scum (in addition to the things I pointed out earlier, I think I found a very solid meta tell which I'd rather not share). I think we should prove that out instead of lynching BigNose.

I was going to vote wam, but I'm going to think about this more tomorrow. Remind myself why the case felt uncomfortable when I went to write it the first time.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby SDK » Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:53 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote:Also not liking BoomFrog's wine in his defence against Silknor

See, it's little stuff like this that make me feel like you might just be being opportunistic. Setting yourself up to go on either wagon, you know? You feel townie otherwise, but my gut is telling me that both these wagons are on town...

This game is hard right now.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:21 am UTC

SDK wrote:BoomFrog, you say that wam is scum. How do you reconcile that with BigNose's bizarre vote on wam (following the lovers claim)? It doesn't look to me like they could be buddies.

He voted preplanning that he would unvote when domichka confirmed they were lovers. It was never a real vote. He knew Wam was a lover but was trying to act like Wam's revelation was a surprise. He overcompensated which is why his behavior is so odd.

A three way tie and 20 hours to deadline is not the time to "think about it". Pick Wam or Bignose and I'll follow you. I think we should go with wasn since it's a more obvious right choice and we don't have time left.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby Suzaku » Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:59 am UTC

Quick morning post:

BoomFrog wrote:He voted preplanning that he would unvote when domichka confirmed they were lovers. It was never a real vote. He knew Wam was a lover but was trying to act like Wam's revelation was a surprise. He overcompensated which is why his behavior is so odd.

Just on this point - scum!BN could not have known that scum!wam was a lover with dimochka because there was no N0 and scum don't have day chat. Unless Misnomer gave all scum each other's roles, which I've never seen done and certainly hasn't been Misnomer's practice in other games I've played/read.
He could, of course, still have been planning to unvote because they're both scum, but the lovers claim should have been a genuine surprise.

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Sorry. I do it for people who haven't listed a preference in the pronoun thread, because I really don't like the singular 'they' for some reason. You can always pronounce it 'they'/'them'/'their' :)
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby Yoshimitsu » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:28 am UTC

I don't think BigNose is scum. His second post calls out mpolo for active lurking. Heck his first post calls out mpolo for active lurking. His "weird reaction" to the start of the mpolo wagon makes sense to me. mpolo really is one of the busier players IRL. He only has 15 posts, but I only see one of them as fluff.

It kind of sounds like j_s is looking for someone to throw mud at in hopes of not being lynched today.

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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby Lawrencelot » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:01 am UTC

Vote: BigNose

(I didn't do it on a separate line last time)

SDK wrote:
Lawrencelot wrote:Also not liking BoomFrog's wine in his defence against Silknor

See, it's little stuff like this that make me feel like you might just be being opportunistic. Setting yourself up to go on either wagon, you know? You feel townie otherwise, but my gut is telling me that both these wagons are on town...

This game is hard right now.

Well, I still think it's possible BoomFrog could be scum and voted mpolo just to bus. I just think it's not very likely, so I won't be voting him today. That does not give him a free pass and I'll definitely keep an eye on him till lategame, also because I found him scummy at the start of the game. But we have better targets for today's lynch, and until we don't have better targets I won't be voting for BoomFrog.

Yoshimitsu wrote:I don't think BigNose is scum. His second post calls out mpolo for active lurking. Heck his first post calls out mpolo for active lurking. His "weird reaction" to the start of the mpolo wagon makes sense to me. mpolo really is one of the busier players IRL. He only has 15 posts, but I only see one of them as fluff.

It kind of sounds like j_s is looking for someone to throw mud at in hopes of not being lynched today.

Do you mean the post where he says "some content please"? This might be a point in his favour, but it also shows how he's paying attention to mpolo, and only adds more to my case on him.

Unlike Silknor, I don't think BigNose's vote on wam is that weird, but it does give me the feeling either wam or BigNose is scum. I will take a closer look at wam, hopefully I can form an opinion before deadline.

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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby Lawrencelot » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:05 am UTC

@dimochka: do you think wam is scum or town?

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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby UniqueScreenname » Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:30 am UTC

I have found it historically impossible to read BigNose. I'll try to read through his posts on my break.

I will judge Lawrencelot because he's played before and js was a newbie. It's not exactly fair to hold the actions of a replaced newbie too heavily.

I claimed vanilla town D1. I have not and will not be targeting anybody all game. That was obviously not why I dislike this idea.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby dimochka » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:20 pm UTC

sorry back and let me quickly respond to what i see as of my last actual post (not the "i just moved" one). Only mentioning a few people and will get back to others later. If you want my opinion on anyone else let me know.

- I like Silknor's analyses, maybe a bit too much. I've seen that often be an experienced scum tell. But his attacks on Vytron were too pointed for a D1 town, and I don't think I've been wrong on that yet so I'd put him in the neutral slightly leaning town catergory
- J_S - Lawrencelot as the replacement is looking way better and I can write off that original suspicion as a newbie play. So for now leaning town.
- Boomfrog - I have no idea and to be perfectly honest USN's and Silknor's arguments are fairly strong. So
- USN - I pretty believe her claim. I wouldn't expect her to claim vanilla town unless she was vanilla town. Or SK or Survivor. But pretty certainly not mafia.
- wam - other than the fact that he probably messed me up and that he doesn't seem to be paying much attention to the game, I'm not getting an extreme idea of scumminess. If we have a cop, I'd love a result on him (but as someone mentioned earlier, be wary of potential godfather role).
- SDK - townie - I already said that in the past and that hasn't changed.
- Bignose - just from what I remember, he did not stick out to me. I'll come back with something on him later but right now I would not be comfortable putting a vote on him.

Just a quick note. I don't think that the game would be balanced if it was randomly allocated and THEN there were two pairs of town lovers setup. SO I would say that it's more likely that either wam is scum (fmpov) or the scum team was balanced with one less member or something similar (in which case the traitor sk/mafia could make sense.... but I don't think that role is actually in game so that's irrelevant). It could be that it's just blind luck that we have two pairs of town but that's just not sitting well with me.

Also I did not target lunch meat last night.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D1 - Another Dead Mayor

Postby BigNose » Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:59 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote:Found something else about BigNose that I forgot: mpolo left him out in his player analysis here: viewtopic.php?f=53&t=109101&start=240#p3606495
He also left out 2 others. Does that make them Scum too?

Lawrencelot wrote:I will take a closer look at wam, hopefully I can form an opinion before deadline.
Good to see balance in your thought.

BoomFrog wrote:
SDK wrote:BoomFrog, you say that wam is scum. How do you reconcile that with BigNose's bizarre vote on wam (following the lovers claim)? It doesn't look to me like they could be buddies.

He voted preplanning that he would unvote when domichka confirmed they were lovers. It was never a real vote. He knew Wam was a lover but was trying to act like Wam's revelation was a surprise. He overcompensated which is why his behavior is so odd.
Still slinging mud in the hope of it sticking?

I still think I prefer a FreezeBlade lynch over Wam or you, but for self-preservation reasons:


Unvote

Vote: Boom Frog


PS I have breadcrumbed, just in case I don't get on again before Night and if I do, then I will try to ensure a lynch occurs.
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:36 pm UTC

Bignose wrote:I didn't vote because he claimed Lovers, I voted because he claimed, seemingly without provocation. 2 votes is NOT provocation in a game of 16 players.

...

Please stop making things up as you go along.
I unvoted because of the usual issues around Lovers and because as Dimo also claimed/confirmed.
This doesn't make sense. Why vote when he claimed but unvote because the claim is confirmed? Either you believed Wam and domichka's confirmation added nothing or you didn't believe Wam. But there is no reason why someone would falseclaim lovers when its so easily debunked so not beliving Wam is bizarre. The only explication I can think of is you voted Wam as an overreaction then needed an excuse to unvote.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby SDK » Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:44 pm UTC

Well, I like the people on the BigNose wagon more than those on the BoomFrog wagon. And BoomFrog is making sense. Pretty much clears up my reservations about the BigNose lynch, so after a quick reread of his posts (again)...

Vote BigNose.

Even though I'm a bit less sure that we're lynching scum, this is a better lynch than wam for today. Where is dimochka?
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby dimochka » Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:45 pm UTC

I just posted?
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby SDK » Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:48 pm UTC

Whoa, how did I miss that dimochka post. Anyway.

Targeted Lunch Meat?
Madge – No
BigNose – No
BoomFrog – No
Freezeblade – No
moody7277 – No
wam – No
Lawrencelot – No
UniqueScreenname – No
Dimochka – No

Waiting on...
Suzaku
Silknor
Yoshimitsu
KazukoKodo
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby dimochka » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:07 pm UTC

SDK since you're more active than others - summarize the case on Bignose for me
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby Yoshimitsu » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:10 pm UTC

I did not target lunchmeat

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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby SDK » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:23 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:SDK since you're more active than others - summarize the case on Bignose for me

Huh, there never was a case made, was there? That's odd. Let's see if I can do this justice.

Spoiler:
BigNose starts out with an FOS on Vytron and his eye on mpolo. I agree with BoomFrog (or Lawrencelot?) that this is just the start of him being a bit too aware of mpolo, but in kind of strange ways. I also thought it was interesting that he said nothing about anything else in the game (my Miller claim, for example).

His second post is a bit odd and full of minor scum tells. Support for IIWAT/IIWAW, which I think is pretty clearly anti-town if we'd followed through with that. Overclarification that he thinks I'm towny (not town!). Role speculation. Overdefensive re: Vytron's response. Despite that, and previous suspicion of Vytron, he calls Vytron not scum based on some weird numbers logic that there's only a 1/3 chance that Vytron's scum. I suspect that was intended to placate Vytron (and really doesn't make sense anyway).

[url]A similar post[/url] where he's again overdefensive with Vytron and responds with threats this time. He's concerned about the vote on him, not about whether the person voting is scum or even why that person is voting him.

Of course, the weird vote on wam. I've come to agree with BoomFrog that this is likely scum motivated. It's just too unnatural.

Preempts my case on mpolo with a minor defense of mpolo's posting habits. JS was leading the votals by a longshot at this time. Why post this at all?

BigNose wrote:
KazukoKodo wrote:How I love it when a wagon comes together. :heart:

Tomorrow (assuming mpolo does flip scum) I plan to go after jewish_scientist and BigNose. I'm not seeing scum!BoomFrog here.


So, do I vote to ensure that Mpolo is a clear leader in the voting table?
If Mpolo turns Scum, do I get labelled as Bussing my mate by KK?

I can't win, which is stupid.


Vote: Mpolo

This gave me bad vibes when he first posted it, but I couldn't really identify why at the time. I think it's just that he's being way too self-conscious. Are we catching scum or aren't we, right? Why is he so concerned about what I think of him? Even moreso than what he thinks of mpolo.

Coming into Day 2, BigNose defends Yoshi and wam's actions at the end of Day 1. He then says he suspects me and Silknor. I don't know about Silknor, but I feel like this is him targeting my Miller claim. I can't think of any reason why he should suspect me at this point. Either way, both reads are very weak and we again see him unwilling to commit to a vote.

Otherwise, not a lot. Votes Freezeblade. Shifts gears to target BoomFrog only after BoomFrog starts suspecting him. Nothing that really leads me to believe he's town, but not much incriminating in Day 2. Day 1 was far worse.


How'd I do? Anything to add to that BoomFrog/Lawrencelot/moody?
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:50 pm UTC

Looks right and actually makes me feel better about my vote. :p. Thanks for that I know how much work that is.

Btw, you're setting I high standard for yourself. You're going to have a tough time of it if your scum next game.* :p

*If you're scum this game I agree to concede you victory right now.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby BigNose » Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:57 pm UTC

Pffff!
Playing with idiots.

I am the Commuter.

Unvote

Vote: WAM
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:04 pm UTC

With the setup how it is that claim isn't provable in any way. You say "the" as if the role is unique and garunteed to be in the game but neither of those are true.

What do you hope to prove by claiming?
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby SDK » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:06 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Btw, you're setting I high standard for yourself. You're going to have a tough time of it if your scum next game.* :p

Don't worry, I'm also an expert at fabricating cases. :wink:


BigNose, now that you've claimed, show me where you breadcrumbed.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby dimochka » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:12 pm UTC

Commuter could explain some of his behavior, especially his support for IIWAT/W because the results would always be "none" unless someone was trying to frame him (that's of course on night's he's able to commute). On the other hand it's a very convenient claim. I, too, want to see the breadcrumb.

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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby SDK » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:20 pm UTC

1 hour, 40 minutes remaining.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby Silknor » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:31 pm UTC

I do see what could go wrong with it, but it's unlikely we are in that case. I did not target Lunchmeat last night.

However. The line must be drawn here. This far, no further! If we do this strategy daily, we are dangerously close to a mass claim. I believe it could easily be game breaking and game ruining. Unless someone can convince me otherwise, or Misnomer wants to say they think the balance with it is fine (which I'm not asking them to do, obviously, their response would risk revealing information we shouldn't have), I won't be participating in this strategy on future days. I believe that strategies like this can turn what mafia should be at its best, a rich game of analysis and language, into a simple puzzle with an answer that can be forced out by logic so simple it loses its appeal. It risks turning the game into Dethy, where a combination of luck and scum guesses determine the outcome of the game while town strategy is trivially easy without the time constraint of live/IRC rules.

@LawrenceLot (and others who can't see how the who targeted lunchmeat strategy could hurt town, from my earlier post, where I also ask what proposing the strategy tells us about BoomFrog, my conclusion that it sheds no light on his alignment):
Spoiler:
I'm of the mind that this is an overpowered strategy in most cases for town. It's a soft version of a mass claim, and a full out mass claim is generally broken enough that I consistently advocate town don't do it for reasons of balance and making sure the game is fun.

However, there's a case where this would play strongly to the scum's advantage. That occurs if the scum targeted someone besides Lunchmeat with the NK and the Vig/SK hit Lunchmeat. This would imply that the Mafia does not have a Strongman, as the mod said that the Strongman's kill works even vs commuter/roleblocker. In that case, either nothing happens or we end up lynching the Vig/SK. Lynching the SK is good for town, but it's even better for scum. The strategy also benefits mafia if they have a second ninja. In either of these cases, the mafia takes no risk (they can answer honestly, or the ninja can safely lie), but they get information on town power roles and we might end up lynching a town power role who targeted Lunchmeat thinking they were the scum that killed Lunchmeat.

In the case where the Scum and Vig/SK both hit Lunchmeat, it's harder to say. If something comes out of it (and obviously there's a decent chance nothing will result because even if we have a watcher/tracker, there's no guarantee they targeted the right person that would be useful and were not roleblocked), it'd come down to chance.


BoomFrog wrote:
Silknor wrote:Boomfrog's posts today seem to be a lot of active lurking. Instead of scumhunting, he asks player X what they think about player Y. Over and over.
I'm not scum hunting? Asking player X about player Y is scum hunting. I'm looking for connections and trying to generate content that will be useful on future days.


Asking Player X about Player Y isn't scum hunting, it's basically useless. At worst it risks people writing down an opinion where they don't actually have one, usually just by saying they seem townie. This can easily create a consensus or the illusion of one where there shouldn't be, because people see many others saying X is townie and join on the bandwagon. It's the same reasons forcing players to list an opinion of every player is bad, especially early.

Silknor wrote: (while making it less obvious that he completely ignored all discussion, positive and critical, or his say if you targeted LunchMeat idea).
I haven't ignored any discussion. I've been one of the most active people D2 even if you remove all questions I asked and only look at statements I've made I've still contributed more then anyone besides CDK.


Hardly. And you absolutely ignored all discussion of the "who targeted lunchmeat" suggestion you made. There was a substantial amount of comments, both critical and supportive, and you didn't deign to weigh in at all.
Silknor wrote:Proposes a bad strategy that we should "not lynch Wamochka D1 regardless of their alignments" which ridiculous on face and his reasoning behind it suffers from a number of issues.
The only reason my argument is flawed was your valid point of a confirmed scum helping to establish links early. Aside from that aspect my reasoning was sound. Obviously I'm not going to convince you, so lets assuming it is a flawed argument. If scum!BF proposed it would only be to my advantage if the lovers included scum and I thought they could be saved long term. Delaying scum!wam's lynch doesn't seem worth making such a link by defending them. Also it was the pressure of my vote that caused wam to claim which again seems like bad play for scum!BF. And if i was scum buddies with wam i doubt my vote would make him panic, but if I'm not buddies with him why would i defend him? Your theoretical scum!BF's actions are incongruent.


No it's not just the value of a confirmed scum early. The logic behind it also required drawing conclusions on the alignment of Wamochka based on scum actions. I don't see at all how the rest of your argument makes sense. Wam is alive and well, some have even gone so far as to suggest (without basis in my view) that it's likely Wamochka are both town given that Vytron/Lunchmeat were. Also, since when is defending townies a bad play for scum? Here you make the same flawed argument you made earlier today in claiming that defending Vytron means we should let you off the hook. Scum frequently defend townies. And I know you're an experienced player so I'm not at all buying this "why would scum defend a townie" act.

Silknor wrote:so I'm left with wondering why he refused to give a justification for his vote, instead just changing it to a new target to see if that stuck.
I did justify my vote after you repeated yourself. I explained why USN and myself were both safe targets. "Searching for a target your vote will stick to" doesn't seem like valid criticism when my vote "stuck" to scum.


As I wrote earlier, if you were scum, there would have been no reason to expect that vote to stick. Mpolo should've been able to easily recover, but once he screwed up again, your vote was trapped there. Had mpolo played it better (and I think anyone who played with him before would expect he would, especially as scum) you could've safely leave your vote on scum since there'd be no bandwagon or just bounce it again. Also I think you mean Vytron, not USN, and I strongly disagree that Vytron was a safe target for obvious reasons :D

BoomFrog wrote:
SDK wrote:BoomFrog, you say that wam is scum. How do you reconcile that with BigNose's bizarre vote on wam (following the lovers claim)? It doesn't look to me like they could be buddies.

He voted preplanning that he would unvote when domichka confirmed they were lovers. It was never a real vote. He knew Wam was a lover but was trying to act like Wam's revelation was a surprise. He overcompensated which is why his behavior is so odd.


I'm not sure it's even possible anyone but wam/dimochka could know they were lovers in advance. There's no daytalk/talk before the game. And it's not at all clear that Misnomer would've revealed lovers to the rest of the scum. He says that all scum receive a PM, but the text regarding lovers is specific to the scum-lover PM, not the one they all get. I'm not saying he would have put the lover part in the publicly revealed scum PM, but rather that there's no reason to be sure he would have. I don't know if he'll answer now that we're having this discussion but it's worth a shot.

If a Scum (Mason) had a lover who was not also a Scum (Mason with them), would the non-lover Scummates (Masonmates) have been informed that their partner had a lover? And would they have been given the name of said lover?

Lawrencelot wrote:Well, I still think it's possible BoomFrog could be scum and voted mpolo just to bus. I just think it's not very likely, so I won't be voting him today. That does not give him a free pass and I'll definitely keep an eye on him till lategame, also because I found him scummy at the start of the game.


I think the important take away from the way it went down on Day 1 is that if BoomFrog is scum, it wasn't intended to be a bus. It went like this:
1. Boomfrog is under fire for a really flimsy vote justification.
2. Mpolo slips up.
3. Boomfrog jumps his vote to Mpolo given the window.
4. Mpolo makes a major error in his defense.
5. Bandwagon.

Mpolo is experienced, so #4 was a big surprise to me, and I expect a big surprise to anyone who has played plenty with him, as BoomFrog has. The thing is, if you expect that instead of a major error, step 4 is Mpolo gives a reasonable explanation of what he meant and everyone forgets about it, then there's no reason to take BoomFrog's vote as saying he wants Mpolo lynched. In that situation, a scum BoomFrog could easily do that to A. change his vote from the flimsy one, and B. get credit for voting for scum if mpolo happens to die at night or on another day.

But once #4 becomes Mpolo messes up bigtime, BoomFrog can't remove his vote or argue against the bandwagon without looking incredibly scummy, and so a move to generate content/grab for townie cred/a way divert suspicion from him to a scummate who he thinks will handle it easily turns into a bus and bandwagon.

That's why I give no credit to BoomFrog for voting mpolo, because his actions were entirely consistent with being Mpolo's scumbuddy.

Lawrencelot wrote:Unlike Silknor, I don't think BigNose's vote on wam is that weird


I think you mean BoomFrog or SDK instead of me there.

dimochka wrote:USN - I pretty believe her claim. I wouldn't expect her to claim vanilla town unless she was vanilla town. Or SK or Survivor. But pretty certainly not mafia.


Why do you believe this claim? The only role for which it might be a risk to claim right now is if she is a non-ninja who targeted Lunchmeat (and even then there'd have needed to be a watcher/tracker who hit the right person). But since it's pretty unlikely she targeted lunchmeat anyway, and if she did it could've been as both pro-town and anti-town roles, I don't see why this should impact anyone's evaluation of her alignment.

Likewise, I don't see any reason to believe BigNose's claim. I don't know if there are breadcrumbs, but unless a cop targeted BigNose and it failed because he was commuting, I don't see how it could be verified. So anyone could make the claim, and easily could have planned in advance to do so, meaning anyone could lay commuter breadcrumbs. Some even suspected Vytron was trying to (with all the subtlety of an aircraft carrier, granted).

Just a quick note. I don't think that the game would be balanced if it was randomly allocated and THEN there were two pairs of town lovers setup. SO I would say that it's more likely that either wam is scum (fmpov) or the scum team was balanced with one less member or something similar (in which case the traitor sk/mafia could make sense.... but I don't think that role is actually in game so that's irrelevant). It could be that it's just blind luck that we have two pairs of town but that's just not sitting well with me.


Yes, I expect that lovers would be taken into account during balancing. Unfortunately it doesn't tell us much if anything about the alignment of Wam/Dimochka because there's enough power roles and independents that the game could be balanced even if they are town/town or scum/scum. Also, Misnomer explicitly ruled out a traitor earlier. If we have two town pairs of lovers, then I expect the scum is weaker than I'd have guessed otherwise in some other way, such as less power roles, less members, or a lyncher with a scum target.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby Silknor » Thu Jul 03, 2014 5:33 pm UTC

Sorry about the length of that post :D I wasn't able to post yesterday and a lot has happened.

TL;DR: Lynch BoomFrog, ignore roleclaims, shoot down mass-claimlike strategies with extreme prejudice.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby Suzaku » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:00 pm UTC

I did not target Lunch Meat last night.

So, about some of the people I had no strong reads on previously:
dimochka:
Outed by wam as his lover. Hasn't had a lot of strong opinions, but has posted reads on most player with reasons. Willing to lynch wam if convinced of scumminess, despite the lover death.
Nothing particularly stands out one way or the other. Odds are he's town, but as he is wam's lover it's probably moot.

Bignose:
I've read over his posts a few times, and there's a lot of little things, but nothing major. I can see the case that SDK/BF are making, but I'm yet to be convinced that it's not just BN being BN; I've seen him mislynched for similar reasons before.

BF:
Was leaning town previously and nothing he's posted today makes me want to change that. Is making coherent, logical arguments, and again there's nothing overtly scummy about his actions AFAICS.

My top scum picks are therefore still wam and Freezeblade. I'm hesitant to vote wam because of dimochka, so I'll

Vote: Freezeblade

It's now 3 a.m. and I really need to get to sleep, so I'll see you tomorrow.

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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D1 - Another Dead Mayor

Postby SDK » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:10 pm UTC

Suzaku wrote:I did not target Lunch Meat last night.

Yeah, me neither. That's everyone - apparently no one targeted Lunch Meat.


(Unofficial) Votals:
Freezeblade (2): Yoshimitsu, Suzaku
Boomfrog (2): UniqueScreenname, Silknor
BigNose (4): BoomFrog, moody7277, Lawrencelot, SDK
wam (1): BigNose
Not Voting (4): wam, dimochka, madge, Freezeblade

7 votes to lynch. Deadline in 50 minutes.


Looks like it's gonna be BigNose. I'm a little concerned, but I think his flip will give us tons of info even if he does flip town.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:11 pm UTC

No it's not just the value of a confirmed scum early. The logic behind it also required drawing conclusions on the alignment of Wamochka based on scum actions.
I can see it's a waste of effort to try and convince you however for the record, I was against drawing any conclusions from whether Wamochka was NKed or not. It was Vytron who advocated that.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D1 - Another Dead Mayor

Postby UniqueScreenname » Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:37 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
Suzaku wrote:I did not target Lunch Meat last night.

Yeah, me neither. That's everyone - apparently no one targeted Lunch Meat.

OH MY GOD I'M SHOCKED!!! Seriously, did you expect anything else?

Reading through BigNose's posts gave me nothing. I don't think he's scum, but if I'm wrong I won't be shocked because I have never been able to read him.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D1 - Another Dead Mayor

Postby SDK » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:21 pm UTC

UniqueScreenname wrote:OH MY GOD I'M SHOCKED!!! Seriously, did you expect anything else?

Nope.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby SDK » Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:41 pm UTC

By the way, if BigNose does flip scum, Yoshi and wam are likely (the last two?) scum. BoomFrog will be confirmed town. Probably Freezeblade too. USN is a decent pick for scum if it comes down to it.

If he flips town, don't lynch BoomFrog immediately, but that should be strongly considered. Everything is basically reversed (Yoshi is town, USN is town, Freezeblade is maybe scum) except that wam is still scum.

I have no other reads that are strong enough to put my dying breath behind it. Last thing I'll say is that moody is probably town, but I sometimes get the feeling he's flying under the radar. Don't let him get away with that for too long since his reads are good - he should get involved and share them.

It occurs to me now that maybe I don't need to say all this. I'm used to playing with people who are substantially worse than me, so I tend to end days by laying things out in case I die that night. Sorry if that feels patronizing. You guys are pretty good players for the most part, so I can probably trust you to reach a decent conclusion without my help. If I do die, just make sure you win, okay?
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby Silknor » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:22 pm UTC

SDK wrote:By the way, if BigNose does flip scum, Yoshi and wam are likely (the last two?) scum. BoomFrog will be confirmed town. Probably Freezeblade too. USN is a decent pick for scum if it comes down to it.

If he flips town, don't lynch BoomFrog immediately, but that should be strongly considered. Everything is basically reversed (Yoshi is town, USN is town, Freezeblade is maybe scum) except that wam is still scum.

I have no other reads that are strong enough to put my dying breath behind it. Last thing I'll say is that moody is probably town, but I sometimes get the feeling he's flying under the radar. Don't let him get away with that for too long since his reads are good - he should get involved and share them.

It occurs to me now that maybe I don't need to say all this. I'm used to playing with people who are substantially worse than me, so I tend to end days by laying things out in case I die that night. Sorry if that feels patronizing. You guys are pretty good players for the most part, so I can probably trust you to reach a decent conclusion without my help. If I do die, just make sure you win, okay?


Actually, I'm glad you did say it, because I disagree with almost all of it. In my view, you expressing an vastly unwarranted degree of confidence. Putting aside the the idea of confirmed town is basically impossible when there are independents, I strongly disagree with the idea that BigNose and BoomFrog couldn't both be scum. I find it unlikely, not because of their interactions but because the chance that any two randomly picked people are scum is in the 5% range. But it's far from a confirmed townie or even confirmed non-scum. Scum do go after each other, for real and for pretend. Likewise, Yoshi and wam defending BigNose would not make them scum even if BigNose turns scum, perhaps you have some other reason to suspect them though. Town end up defending scum plenty.

If BigNose does indeed die, his alignment will reveal some information. But it's not going to be anywhere near as much as you claim, and it's the type of information that may require combing through the past, not just looking at who is defending and attacking him as if everyone knows his alignment already and scum/indep would never vote for him.

But maybe the case against BigNose is so obvious that only a scum could not be convinced. That would mean more than half the remaining players are scum, so we might as well pack up our bags and go home.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby BigNose » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:25 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Btw, you're setting I high standard for yourself. You're going to have a tough time of it if your scum next game.* :p

Don't worry, I'm also an expert at fabricating cases. :wink:


BigNose, now that you've claimed, show me where you breadcrumbed.

Why did you think I asked about those Roles that were unusual !
It's not a normal "start of sentences" style, but it basically means that I am the Strongman or Commuter, as both of those were new to me.
If you pick me as Town, then I'm the Commuter.
If not, then I must be the Strongman.

Unfortunately, you will find that I am indeed the Commuter and if I survive the day, then I will Commute tonight.
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby Silknor » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:37 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:@Wam - Yes, a few roles are new to me:
Town - Commuter
Mafia - Strongman & Ninja
Not that they are difficult to understand, just never seen them as-is before.
Point to note, Mafia have 2 possibilities of defining who will carry out the NK


That was the breadcrumbing?

Seriously? I mean I didn't believe your claim to start with(who would?) but that's it?
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby SDK » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:40 pm UTC

Silknor wrote:Actually, I'm glad you did say it, because I disagree with almost all of it. In my view, you expressing an vastly unwarranted degree of confidence. Putting aside the the idea of confirmed town is basically impossible when there are independents, I strongly disagree with the idea that BigNose and BoomFrog couldn't both be scum. I find it unlikely, not because of their interactions but because the chance that any two randomly picked people are scum is in the 5% range. But it's far from a confirmed townie or even confirmed non-scum. Scum do go after each other, for real and for pretend. Likewise, Yoshi and wam defending BigNose would not make them scum even if BigNose turns scum, perhaps you have some other reason to suspect them though. Town end up defending scum plenty.

If BigNose does indeed die, his alignment will reveal some information. But it's not going to be anywhere near as much as you claim, and it's the type of information that may require combing through the past, not just looking at who is defending and attacking him as if everyone knows his alignment already and scum/indep would never vote for him.

But maybe the case against BigNose is so obvious that only a scum could not be convinced. That would mean more than half the remaining players are scum, so we might as well pack up our bags and go home.

Yoshi's had some townie moments, but the manner in which he defended mpolo and now BigNose would be too much for me to believe. I don't think the case on BigNose is incredibly strong, but he's definitely not obviously town.

wam is scum all by himself. His defense of BigNose (if BigNose flips scum) would be one tell among many.

You're right about independents, but similar to Yoshi, BoomFrog going after mpolo then BigNose would be too much to believe if they both turn scum. I have a town read on BoomFrog for other reasons (mostly style and involvement), but that alone would make him about as confirmed "not scum" as you can get. I don't say that to encourage people to forget him entirely, of course. It's just a read and should be questioned at endgame, same as always.

Ultimately, these are my reads and nothing more. They're not just based on the last couple pages, but from what I remember of the game as a whole. They're likely imperfect, but I work with what I've got. Questioning those reads is necessary to an extent, but if you question everything in this game you'll never get anywhere. Basically, I am confident - about as confident as you can be in a game of imperfect information.
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby SDK » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:40 pm UTC

Silknor wrote:That was the breadcrumbing?

Seriously? I mean I didn't believe your claim to start with(who would?) but that's it?

You didn't believe his claim? Why are you voting for BoomFrog?
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Re: [L] Seaside Mafia: D2 - Heartbreak Hotel

Postby BigNose » Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:07 pm UTC

Silknor wrote:That was the breadcrumbing?

Seriously? I mean I didn't believe your claim to start with (who would?) but that's it?

Hmmmm, yeh, maybe I should have stated it straight out.


And, as I stated before, to ensure there is no chance of a tie:

Unvote

Vote: BigNose


It seems it's the best that I can do from here.
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.


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