Best Idea Mafia - Game Over

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SDK
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Best Idea Mafia - Game Over

Postby SDK » Tue May 05, 2015 3:26 pm UTC

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Best Idea Mafia - Escape from Peoria

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The Illinois Asylum for the Incurably Insane, also known as the Bartonville Hospital, also known as the Peoria State Hospital, is a lovely place to visit. If you're a tourist. Lovely architecture, lovely gardens, lovely weather and lovely people. They don't come inside, of course. The tourists. Well, not to your wing at least. Because you're not a tourist, are you? No, you have a condition. For the eight patients in the split personalities wing of the asylum, life is hell twice over. Shock therapy, lobotomies, pyrotherapy and all manner of beatings haven't been able to cure you. Until now. A new drug. A better drug. Xenoxymetazoline. You haven't had this much clarity in years. Clarity of vision. Of drive. Of doing what you must to get at what you want. Now.

The guards clearly didn't count on such a sudden change in their patients' temperments. Or in the strange transformations the drug can sometimes cause. Perhaps they even assumed that it would kill only the violent personalities. And it did. In some. If only you could remember which you were...



Welcome to the asylum! In this game each player is randomly dealt two roles from a deck of 100 roles (shown in the spoiler below). With 8 players, all 16 cards used are unique - there will be no duplicates between players unless there were multiple copies of that role in the deck. Before the game begins, each player chooses to keep one role and discard the other. At the start of Day 1, every player's discarded role will be publicly revealed and any factional/partnered roles will be informed of their partners.

Balance is specifically NOT guaranteed. I will give you only two guarantees: 1) There will be more town than non-town, and 2) There will be at least one threat. I won't reroll for any other reason.

In this setup, anti-town roles are in three main factions: Mafia, Aliens and Goo. The Mafia have nightchat and a factional nightkill. The Aliens have nightchat and a one-shot factional kill. The Goo have no factional abilities at all, but will be informed of who their partners are.

Some of these roles mention quicktopics. In xkcd tradition, we'll be using PM instead with all PM communication cc'd to me, the mod.

Role Deck:
Spoiler:
Vanilla Townie
Vanilla Townie
Vanilla Townie
Vanilla Townie
Vanilla Townie
Vanilla Townie
Vanilla Townie
Vanilla Townie
Vanilla Townie
Vanilla Townie
Doctor
Doctor
Coroner (can target a dead player to discover which role(s) killed them, but not the player who owns it; can also target a living player, succeeding if they die that night)
Coroner
Coroner
Coroner
Bodyguard
Bodyguard
One-shot Commuter
Cop
Cop
Ascetic Cop
Backup Cop (becomes a Cop if a Cop, Ascetic Cop, Traitor Cop or Jack Of All Trades dies)
Watcher
Tracker
Hider (dies if successfully targets a Mafia, Alien or Goo, or a player that died that night; immune to night actions if successfully targets a player otherwise.)
Ascetic Hider
Area 51 Detective (target is roleblocked if Alien)
Area 51 Immunologist (permanently renders target immune to any kind of death by Aliens, except lynching)
Conspiracy Theorist (gets result for "Alien" or "Not Alien"; immune to Alien kills; investigates as "Alien")
Conspiracy Theorist
Conspiracy Theorist
Conspiracy Theorist
Conspiracy Theorist
Conspiracy Theorist
Conspiracy Theorist
Compulsive Roleblocker
Jailkeeper
Jailkeeper
Jack Of All Trades (cop/doc/roleblock abilities, all one-shot)
Mason
Mason
Mason
Ascetic Mason
Mason Compulsive Bodyguard
Mason Reflexive Doctor
One-shot Vigilante
Miller Vigilante
One-shot Day Vigilante
Nymphomaniac (compulsively chooses a lover on night 1; the other lover is not informed)
Excellent Sense of Smell Townie (immediately informed how many of each Goo roles are in the game)
Excellent Sense of Smell Townie
Ugly Townie (immediately informed how many of each goo roles are in the game; can win with the goo survivor-style; investigates as Alien)
Ugly Townie
Clairvoyant (immediately informed how many factions there are; lyncher/pseudojester count as factions)
Clairvoyant
Clairvoyant
Clairvoyant
Treestump
Lynchbait (guaranteed to be the target of the Lyncher, if one exists)
Macho One-shot Kingmaker (cannot be protected)
Macho Death Kingmaker (cannot be protected; kingmaker action activates publicly upon death, applies to the next day)
Supersaint
Vengeful Townie
One-shot Unlynchable Townie
Universal Backup (acquires current abilities of first killed town player)
Universal Backup
Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon
Ascetic Mafia Goon
Ascetic Mafia Goon
Bulletproof Mafia Goon
Bulletproof Mafia Goon
Mafia Tracker
Mafia One-Shot Role Cop
Mafia One-Shot Role Cop
Mafia Traitor Cop (initially unaware of teammates, and vice-versa)
Mafia Conspiracy Theorist (immune to Alien kills; gets result for "Alien" or "Not Alien"; investigates as either "Alien" or "Mafia")
Mafia Conspiracy Theorist
Mafia Clairvoyant (immediately informed how many factions there are; lyncher/pseudojester count as factions)
Mafia Clairvoyant
Mafia One-shot Day Vigilante
Mafia Godfather
Alien Avenger (supersaint)
Alien Avenger
Alien Vanillerizer
Alien Vanillerizer
Alien Psychotrooper (while alive, all roles which expect a result receive 'no result' as if role blocked)
Alien One-Shot Psychomagnet (all night actions are redirected to the target)
Alien Monarch (bulletproof unlynchable day-vigilante - but loses all abilities when any ability is activated; bulletproof ability can absorb multiple shots in one night; Alien Monarch isn't told explicitly when the bulletproof ability activates)
Baby Alien Monarch (on the dawn of Day 4, becomes an Alien Monarch; at that point, the town is publicly informed of the presence of this role; until then, cannot perform Alien factional kills)
Baby Alien Monarch
Lyncher (game ends if lyncher wins; lyncher becomes vanilla townie if target is killed; mod personally selects a town lynchee target after all players have chosen their roles)
Pseudojester (one-shot unlynchable; converts to the alignment of the hammering player when lynched; cannot win otherwise)
Red Goo (goo-aligned; targeted player unstoppably dies, even if bulletproof etc; one-shot; cannot be redirected/blocked; mod announces the death being due to a Red Goo)
Red Goo
Grey Goo (goo-aligned; anyone who successfully targets Grey Goo with an action becomes goo-aligned and vanillerized. The goo faction gains immediate knowledge of this. Immediately after night 2, Grey Goo (unblockably) dies)
Chameleon Goo (same as grey goo; also a mason)
Role PM's:
Spoiler:
Vanilla Townie
You are a Vanilla Townie.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Bulletproof Townie
You are a Bulletproof Townie.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Bulletproof: You cannot be nightkilled.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Doctor
You are a Town Doctor.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Doctor: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. This player will be protected from all nightkills for that Night.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Coroner
You are a Town Coroner.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Coroner: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. If this player is dead before the next Day, you will be informed of the role-name that killed them.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Bodyguard
You are a Town Bodyguard.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Bodyguard: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. If this player is nightkilled, you will die instead.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

One-Shot Town Commuter
You are a One-Shot Town Commuter.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
One-Shot Commuter: Once in the game, at Night, you may "commute". All abilities that target you that Night will fail.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Cop
You are a Town Cop.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Cop: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. You will receive You believe NAME to be MAFIA if that player is aligned with the Mafia. You will receive You believe NAME to be NOT MAFIA if that player is not aligned with the Mafia. You will receive No result if your investigation failed.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Ascetic Town Cop
You are an Ascetic Town Cop.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Cop: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. You will receive You believe NAME to be MAFIA if that player is aligned with the Mafia. You will receive You believe NAME to be NOT MAFIA if that player is not aligned with the Mafia. You will receive No result if your investigation failed.
Ascetic: You are immune to all Night actions except kills.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Backup Town Cop
You are a Backup Town Cop.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Cop: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. You will receive You believe NAME to be MAFIA if that player is aligned with the Mafia. You will receive You believe NAME to be NOT MAFIA if that player is not aligned with the Mafia. You will receive No result if your investigation failed.
Backup: You cannot use your Cop ability unless a player with a 'Cop' ability dies.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Watcher
You are a Town Watcher.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Watcher: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. You will be informed of which players targeted that person during that Night.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Tracker
You are a Town Tracker.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Tracker: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. You will be informed of which player(s) that player targeted during that Night.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Hider
You are a Town Hider.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Hider: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. If you successfully target that player (i.e. you are not blocked,) you are immune to any night actions that night, unless they are Mafia, Alien or Goo-aligned, or they die during the night, in which case you will die yourself.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Ascetic Town Hider
You are an Ascetic Town Hider.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Hider: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. If you successfully target that player (i.e. you are not blocked,) you are immune to any night actions that night, unless they are Mafia, Alien or Goo-aligned, or they die during the night, in which case you will die yourself.
Ascetic: You are immune to all Night actions except kills (even when not using your Hider ability).
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Area 51 Detective
You are an Area 51 Detective.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Area 51 Detective: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. This player will be roleblocked (any targets/nightkills that player make will fail) if they are an Alien.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Area 51 Immunologist
You are an Area 51 Immunologist.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Area 51 Area 51 Immunologist: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. This player will become immune to Alien nightkills (including on that night).
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Conspiracy Theorist
You are a Conspiracy Theorist.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Conspiracy Theorist:
During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. You will receive You believe NAME to be ALIEN if that player is aligned with the Aliens. You will receive You believe NAME to be NOT ALIEN if that player is not aligned with the Aliens. You will receive No result if your investigation failed.
Alien-Immune: You cannot be killed in any way by Aliens.
Tentacled: You will investigate as "GUILTY" to other Alien investigators.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Compulsive Town Roleblocker
You are a Compulsive Town Roleblocker.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Roleblocker: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. Any targets/nightkills that player make will fail.
Compulsive: You are required to use your ability each Night. If you do not submit a target, it will be randomized.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Jailkeeper
You are a Town Jailkeeper.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Jailkeeper: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. Any targets/nightkills that player make will fail. This player will also be immune to nightkills for that Night.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Jack-of-all-Trades
You are a Town Jack-of-all-Trades.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
You may use each of the following abilities once per game. You may not use more than one ability per Night.
Roleblocker: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. Any targets/nightkills that player make will fail.
Cop: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. You will receive You believe NAME to be MAFIA if that player is aligned with the Mafia. You will receive You believe NAME to be NOT MAFIA if that player is not aligned with the Mafia. You will receive No result if your investigation failed.
Doctor: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. This player will be protected from all nightkills for that Night.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Mason
You are a Town Mason.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Mason: If there are other Masons in the game, you will form a Mason group with them. There will be a Mason QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Ascetic Town Mason
You are an Ascetic Town Mason.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Mason: If there are other Masons in the game, you will form a Mason group with them. There will be a Mason QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Ascetic: You are immune to all Night actions except kills.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Mason Compulsive Bodyguard
You are a Town Mason Compulsive Bodyguard.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Mason: If there are other Masons in the game, you will form a Mason group with them. There will be a Mason QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Bodyguard: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. If this player is nightkilled, you will die instead.
Compulsive: You are required to use your ability each Night. If you do not submit a target, it will be randomized.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Mason Reflexive Doctor
You are a Reflexive Town Doctor.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Mason: If there are other Masons in the game, you will form a Mason group with them. There will be a Mason QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Reflexive Doctor: Any players who target you tonight will be protected from all nightkills for that Night.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

One-Shot Vigilante
You are a One-Shot Town Vigilante.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
One-Shot Vigilante: Once during the game, at the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. This player will die.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Miller Vigilante
You are a Town Miller Vigilante.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Vigilante: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. This player will die.
Miller: You will investigate as "MAFIA" to any Cops.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

One-Shot Town Day Vigilante
You are a One-Shot Town Day Vigilante.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
One-Shot Day Vigilante: Once during the game, at Day, you may PM me the name of another player. This player will die.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Nymphomaniac
You are a Town Nymphomaniac.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Nymphomaniac: During Night 1, you must PM me the name of another player. You will form a Lover bond with them (aka if you or your partner is killed, the other Lover will also die).
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Excellent Sense of Smell Townie
You are an Excellent Sense of Smell Townie.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Excellent Sense of Smell: At the beginning of Day 1, you will be informed how many of each Goo roles are in the game.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Ugly Townie
You are an Ugly Townie.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Excellent Sense of Smell: At the beginning of Day 1, you will be informed how many of each Goo roles are in the game.
Ugly: You have a secondary win condition of winning with the goo.
Tentacled: You will investigate as "GUILTY" to Alien investigators.
Win Condition
You win if you meet either of these win conditions:
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If there are Goo-aligned players alive and if your membership in their faction would cause them to win, then both the Goo and yourself win.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Clairvoyant
You are a Town Clairvoyant.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Clairvoyant: At the start of Day 1, you will be told how many factions there are. Note that the Lyncher and Pseudojester roles are each considered separate factions.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Treestump
You are a Treestump.
Abilities
Treestump: During the day, you may activate your Treestump ability by declaring I am a Treestump, at which point you are removed from the game - but you can still post in the thread, and can still win with the Town.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Lynchbait
You are Lynchbait.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Lynchbait: If there is a Lyncher in the game, you are his/her Lynchee.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Macho One-Shot Kingmaker
You are a Macho One-Shot Kingmaker.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
One-Shot Kingmaker: Once during the game, at Night, you may PM me the name of another player. This player will be the "King" during the next Day phase, and they alone decide the day's lynch with their single vote.
Macho: Protection roles will not work on you.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Macho Death Kingmaker
You are a Macho Death Kingmaker.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Kingmaker: When you die, you must publicly select one player. This player will be the "King" during the next Day phase, and they alone decide the day's lynch with their single vote.
Macho: Protection roles will not work on you.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Town Supersaint
You are a Town Supersaint.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Supersaint: If you are lynched, whomever placed the hammer vote will die.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Vengeful Townie
You are a Vengeful Townie.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Vengeful: If you are lynched, you may choose to kill one player immediately by posting in-thread Kill: PLAYERNAME. If you do not want to kill anyone, please post Kill: No one.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

One-Shot Unlynchable Townie
You are a One-Shot Unlynchable Townie.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
One-Shot Unlynchable: The first time you are lynched, you will not die.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Universal Backup
You are a Universal Backup.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Universal Backup: You will acquire the current abilities of the first Town-aligned player to die.
Win Condition
You win when all threats to the Town are eliminated and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive, or nothing can prevent the same.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Mafia Goon
You are a Mafia Goon.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Factional Kill: The Mafia may kill one player per Night.
Factional Communication: If there are other Mafia-aligned players, there will be a Mafia QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Win Condition
You win when all players without a Mafia wincon are eliminated and at least one Mafia-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Ascetic Mafia Goon
You are a Ascetic Mafia Goon.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Factional Kill: The Mafia may kill one player per Night.
Factional Communication: If there are other Mafia-aligned players, there will be a Mafia QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Ascetic: You are immune to all Night actions except kills.
Win Condition
You win when all players without a Mafia wincon are eliminated and at least one Mafia-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Bulletproof Mafia Goon
You are a Bulletproof Mafia Goon.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Factional Kill: The Mafia may kill one player per Night.
Factional Communication: If there are other Mafia-aligned players, there will be a Mafia QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Bulletproof: You cannot be nightkilled.
Win Condition
You win when all players without a Mafia wincon are eliminated and at least one Mafia-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Mafia Tracker
You are a Mafia Tracker.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Factional Kill: The Mafia may kill one player per Night.
Factional Communication: If there are other Mafia-aligned players, there will be a Mafia QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Tracker: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. You will be informed which players that player targeted during that Night.
Win Condition
You win when all players without a Mafia wincon are eliminated and at least one Mafia-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

One-Shot Mafia Role Cop
You are a One-Shot Mafia Role Cop.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Factional Kill: The Mafia may kill one player per Night.
Factional Communication: If there are other Mafia-aligned players, there will be a Mafia QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
One-Shot Role Cop: Once during the game, at Night, you may PM me the name of another player. You will be informed of this player's role name (and hence also alignment).
Win Condition
You win when all players without a Mafia wincon are eliminated and at least one Mafia-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Mafia Traitor Cop
You are a Mafia Traitor Cop.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Traitor: You do not know your Mafia team-mates (if you have any), and do not have access to their QT.
Cop: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. You will receive You believe NAME to be MAFIA if that player is aligned with the Mafia. You will receive You believe NAME to be NOT MAFIA if that player is not aligned with the Mafia. You will receive No result if your investigation failed.
Win Condition
You win when all players without a Mafia wincon are eliminated and at least one Mafia-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Mafia Conspiracy Theorist
You are a Mafia Conspiracy Theorist.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Factional Kill: The Mafia may kill one player per Night.
Factional Communication: If there are other Mafia-aligned players, there will be a Mafia QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Conspiracy Theorist:
During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. You will receive You believe NAME to be ALIEN if that player is aligned with the Aliens. You will receive You believe NAME to be NOT ALIEN if that player is not aligned with the Aliens. You will receive No result if your investigation failed.
Alien-Immune: You cannot be nightkilled by Aliens.
Tentacled: You will investigate as "GUILTY" to other Alien investigators.
Win Condition
You win when all players without a Mafia wincon are eliminated and at least one Mafia-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Mafia Clairvoyant
You are a Mafia Clairvoyant.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Factional Kill: The Mafia may kill one player per Night.
Factional Communication: If there are other Mafia-aligned players, there will be a Mafia QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Clairvoyant: At the start of Day 1, you will be told how many factions there are. Note that the Lyncher and Pseudojester roles are each considered separate factions.
Win Condition
You win when all players without a Mafia wincon are eliminated and at least one Mafia-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

One-Shot Mafia Day Vigilante
You are a One-Shot Mafia Day Vigilante.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Factional Kill: The Mafia may kill one player per Night.
Factional Communication: If there are other Mafia-aligned players, there will be a Mafia QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
One-Shot Day Vigilante: Once during the game, at Day, you may PM me the name of another player. This player will die.
Win Condition
You win when all players without a Mafia wincon are eliminated and at least one Mafia-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Mafia Godfather
You are a Mafia Godfather.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Factional Kill: The Mafia may kill one player per Night.
Factional Communication: If there are other Mafia-aligned players, there will be a Mafia QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Godfather: You will investigate as "NOT MAFIA" if investigated by a Cop.
Win Condition
You win when all players without a Mafia wincon are eliminated and at least one Mafia-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Alien Avenger
You are an Alien Avenger.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
One-Shot Factional Kill: The Aliens may teamkill a player at night, but only once this game.
Factional Communication: If there are other Alien-aligned players, there will be an Alien QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Avenger: If you are lynched, whomever placed the hammer vote will die.
Win Condition
You win when all players without an Alien wincon are eliminated and at least one Alien-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Alien Vanillerizer
You are an Alien Vanillerizer.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
One-Shot Factional Kill: The Aliens may teamkill a player at night, but only once this game.
Factional Communication: If there are other Alien-aligned players, there will be an Alien QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Vanillerizer: During the Night, you may PM me the name of another player. This player will lose any abilities they have (not counting factional abilities). This will take effect at the start of the next Day.
Win Condition
You win when all players without an Alien wincon are eliminated and at least one Alien-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Alien Psychotrooper
You are an Alien Psychotrooper.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
One-Shot Factional Kill: The Aliens may teamkill a player at night, but only once this game.
Factional Communication: If there are other Alien-aligned players, there will be an Alien QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Psychotrooper: All investigators will receive "No Result" while you are still alive.
Win Condition
You win when all players without an Alien wincon are eliminated and at least one Alien-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

One-Shot Alien Psychomagnet
You are a One-Shot Alien Psychomagnet.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
One-Shot Factional Kill: The Aliens may teamkill a player at night, but only once this game.
Factional Communication: If there are other Alien-aligned players, there will be an Alien QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
One-Shot Psychomagnet: Once during the game, at Night, you may PM me the name of another player. All Night actions will be redirected to this player.
Win Condition
You win when all players without an Alien wincon are eliminated and at least one Alien-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Alien Monarch
You are an Alien Monarch.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
One-Shot Factional Kill: The Aliens may teamkill a player at night, but only once this game.
Factional Communication: If there are other Alien-aligned players, there will be an Alien QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Monarch: You have each of the following abilities. However, once any of the abilities are used, you will not be able to use any further abilities.
Bulletproof: You cannot be nightkilled. Note that you will not be told when this is used and attempting to use another ability afterwards will fail.
Unlynchable: You cannot be lynched.
Day Vigilante: During the Day, you may PM me the name of another player. This player will die.
Win Condition
You win when all players without an Alien wincon are eliminated and at least one Alien-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Baby Alien Monarch
You are an Baby Alien Monarch.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
One-Shot Factional Kill: The Aliens may teamkill a player at night, but only once this game. Note that you cannot perform the factional kill until Day 4 (see Baby below).
Factional Communication: If there are other Alien-aligned players, there will be an Alien QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Monarch: You have each of the following abilities. However, once any of the abilities are used, you will not be able to use any further abilities.
Bulletproof: You cannot be nightkilled. Note that you will not be told when this is used and attempting to use another ability afterwards will fail.
Unlynchable: You cannot be lynched.
Day Vigilante: During the Day, you may PM me the name of another player. This player will die (as soon as I receive the PM).
Baby: You cannot use your Monarch or team-kill abilities until Day 4. I will publicly alert the remaining players that a player has become an Alien Monarch at that time.
Win Condition
You win when all players without an Alien wincon are eliminated and at least one Alien-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Lyncher
You are a Lyncher.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Lyncher: Before the game, I will randomly assign you a target. Your goal is to get that person lynched. If that target dies by some other manner, you will convert to a Vanilla Townie.
Win Condition
You win when your target is lynched.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Pseudojester
You are a Pseudojester.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Pseudojester: If you are lynched, you will convert to the same alignment as the player that hammered you. You cannot win otherwise.
Win Condition
None.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Red Goo
You are Red Goo.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
One-Shot Unstoppable Kill: Once during the game, at Night, you may PM me the name of another player. This player will unstoppably die, even if bulletproof, etc. This ability cannot be redirected or blocked. I will announce this death as being due to a Red Goo.
Win Condition
You win when all players without a Goo wincon are eliminated and at least one Goo-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Grey Goo
You are Grey Goo.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Grey Goo: You will cause anyone who targets you to become Goo-aligned and lose all of their abilities. You will automatically (and unblockably) die during Night 2.
Win Condition
You win when all players without a Goo wincon are eliminated and at least one Goo-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.

Chameleon Goo
You are Chameleon Goo.
Abilities
During the Day, you may vote for whomever you want lynched.
Grey Goo: You will cause anyone who targets you to become Goo-aligned and lose all of their abilities. You will automatically (and unblockably) die Night 2.
Mason: If there are other Masons in the game, you will form a Mason group with them. There will be a Mason QT that can be used pre-game and during the Night.
Win Condition
You win when all players without a Goo wincon are eliminated and at least one Goo-aligned player is still alive (or nothing can prevent the same).
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to PM me. Please confirm your participation in this game by responding to this PM with your role name.



Rules (please read - some may be slightly different than you're used to)
Spoiler:
1. You cannot post in this thread unless you are alive in-game.
2. Do not quote PM’s that you receive from me. This includes your role PM and any images. You may paraphrase, but do not talk about the formatting or anything beyond the words.
3. Do not edit or delete posts. If you have something more to say, make a new post. If you want to correct your grammar, make a new post. Anything else? Make a new post.
4. Do not talk about this game outside this game. Communication with other players must happen either in this thread or by means I provide. Appropriately labeled spoilers in GoJoe is the only exception to this rule.
5. Votes and Unvotes must be bolded. Unvoting is helpful, but not required to switch your vote.
6. If you have a question or request for me, please bold it. Questions and requests can also be PM’d to me. Don’t hesitate to ask me anything! I may not give you an answer, but I’ll always reply and am happy to help.
7. You are expected to participate in this game. Any player who has not posted in 72 hours will be prodded. Failure to reply to this prod or being prodded multiple times will result in your replacement or modkill. If you will be unable to post for some period of time, please notify me either in thread or by PM.
8. If you are unable or unwilling to continue playing, please contact me so I can find a replacement.
9. Once a lynch has been achieved, no unvotes will reverse it and no Day abilities may be used. You may continue to talk until the lynch is announced by the mod.
10. Be sporting. No trying to get modkilled, no cryptoclaiming, no outing of your scum buddies as some twisted revenge. Please don’t try to win so hard that you ruin the game in the process.


Alive
1. SPACKlick
2. SirGabriel
3. freezeblade (replacing ahippo)
4. kalira (replacing ajh)

Dead
1. mpolo, Town Jailkeeper, lynched Day 1
2. New User, Town Mason Compulsive Bodyguard, killed Night 1
3. bessie (replacing Vytron), Mafia Goon, killed Night 1
4. Madge, Town Mason, killed Day 2


Replacements
None. Please contact me if you want to be added to this list.


Waypoints
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Endgame
Last edited by SDK on Fri Jun 12, 2015 3:07 pm UTC, edited 10 times in total.
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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Confirmation

Postby SDK » Wed May 06, 2015 2:14 pm UTC

We need to reroll. New roles being sent out now.
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Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SDK » Fri May 08, 2015 3:48 pm UTC

Image

The Xenoxymetazoline has been administered. Transformations have taken hold. The guards are dead, along with the "others" in your heads. Only you eight remain, locked in the wing by the guards outside and allowed to tear yourselves apart. Little do they know, you have bigger plans...

Discarded roles:
Spoiler:
SPACKlick discarded Mafia Goon
SirGabriel discarded Area 51 Detective
New User discarded One-Shot Town Day Vigilante
ahippo discarded Area 51 Immunologist
mpolo discarded Town Coroner
ajh discarded Vanilla Townie
Vytron discarded Mason Reflexive Doctor
Madge discarded Conspiracy Theorist

It is now Day 1. No deadline is currently set. With 8 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
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SirGabriel
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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SirGabriel » Fri May 08, 2015 4:41 pm UTC

Okay, let's start by reviewing the public information:
16 cards were randomly chosen out of a deck containing 67 town, 18 mafia, 9 aliens, 4 goo, 1 lyncher, and 1 pseudojester. This means the expected number of each category to be dealt is:
10.72 town
2.88 mafia
1.44 alien
0.64 goo
0.16 lyncher
0.16 pseudojester


The first deal had to be rerolled. This can only happen for two reasons: either there were less than 5 town or there were 0 non-town. I was non-town on that first deal, so it must be the latter (which implies that there are at least 3 other players who can confirm that this was the cause of the reroll). Even before seeing the discarded roles on the second deal, this would lead me to believe that most people who had the choice would choose non-town over town.

On the second deal, seven of the eight players discarded town roles. Normally this would make me suspicious of SPACKlick; however, given that he discarded Mafia Goon, it is not at all implausible that he would choose a town power role over a vanilla mafia role. The second deal was not rerolled, implying that at least twelve power roles were dealt.

Based on this public information, it seems that most likely we have exactly 5 town, all with power roles (unless ajh was unlucky enough to be dealt two Vanilla Townies), and three non-town. Perhaps someone who is better at statistics can do a more complete analysis of the relevant probabilities.

Now to role-claim, since I see no reason to save this information for later: I am a Clairvoyant. There are exactly three factions in this game. One of those is town, and statistically mafia and alien are most likely to be the other two, although that is not guaranteed.


And now, the discarded roles:
SPACKlick and ajh discarded vanilla roles. Most likely, this means they took whichever non-vanilla role they were dealt, of which the majority are town. Not at all suspicious.
SirGabriel, ahippo, and Madge discarded roles which have limited use when there are aliens in the game and are completely useless otherwise. Neutral.
Vytron discarded a role which is certainly unusual but could potentially be very useful. New User and mpolo also discarded useful roles. Could be a sign that they were also dealt non-town roles and thought it would be more fun to be the bad guy. Somewhat suspicious.

So: Vytron, New User, and mpolo, would you mind explaining why you discarded the roles you did?

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby Vytron » Fri May 08, 2015 7:35 pm UTC

Because, really? I only protect those targeting me? What kind of role is that? The only way to make it useful is to claim that you have it, and then you're night killed and it becomes an useless power.

The job of the doctor is to protect people they suspect are cops, mainly, and then, there's no way to do it unless the cop targets them, but it only works once, and the cop becomes useless if they keep targeting them to remain protected. It's a mess.

SirGabriel wrote:On the second deal, seven of the eight players discarded town roles. Normally this would make me suspicious of SPACKlick


Can you explain this please? In any scenario, people discarding mafia roles are most likely town, by the very fact that the most unlikely scenario is getting to choose from 2 different scum roles, so I don't get what could make you suspicious of SPACKlick.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SirGabriel » Fri May 08, 2015 7:41 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:On the second deal, seven of the eight players discarded town roles. Normally this would make me suspicious of SPACKlick


Can you explain this please? In any scenario, people discarding mafia roles are most likely town, by the very fact that the most unlikely scenario is getting to choose from 2 different scum roles, so I don't get what could make you suspicious of SPACKlick.

I'm operating under the assumption that most people would choose a scum role over a town role. The facts that the first deal was rerolled and seven town were discarded on the second deal are evidence supporting this assumption. It's not that unlikely to have two scum roles to choose from (roughly 1 in 9 odds).

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SPACKlick » Fri May 08, 2015 8:06 pm UTC

Umm, Sir Gabriel, my read on you so far is you chose a scum role over a town role. FOS Sir Gabriel. I chose a power role over a vanilla role. If it had been vanilla town and power Scum, I'd be scum.

Below is all assumptions I'm just trying to figure out this crazy set up
Ok So If Sir Gabriel is telling the truth, 3 groups, average expectation (given more town than not) is 5 town, 2Mafia, 1Alien.
Lone Alien.
One nightkill.
Vanilleriser is quite useful given most people will have powers.
Can't be psychotrooper because that would have given Gabriel no result
Psychomagnet is Wicked powerful solo
Alien Monarch is difficult to use solo or team
Baby Alien Monarch likely won't evolve.
Small Mafia Team
Could have bulletproof, or all non kill action proof.
One shot role cop is useful in this game
Cop isn't that useful, they know who isn't mafia
Clairvoyant is also a mafia role, not overly useful
Day vigilante. Scary
Godfather, meh not sure cops will be a big factor in what will likely be a quick game.
Goo
Goo make someone who's not goo goo, then die.
No worries.

I actually think town has a serious edge here. If we had a Two scum day vigs and two nightkills, then we'd be boned but odds are against.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby Vytron » Fri May 08, 2015 8:13 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:I'm operating under the assumption that most people would choose a scum role over a town role. The facts that the first deal was rerolled and seven town were discarded on the second deal are evidence supporting this assumption. It's not that unlikely to have two scum roles to choose from (roughly 1 in 9 odds).


All I know is that in the original game, and in the reroll, I was never given the choice to pick scum, that's four town roles offered in a row. I guess this is in order:

Were the odds of card rolling identical in the original roll and the reroll?

I'm currently liking SPACKlick and SirGabriel, the latter has claimed a power role, the former has basically 89% chance of being town, which is quite high.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SirGabriel » Fri May 08, 2015 8:40 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:the former has basically 89% chance of being town, which is quite high.

Not even close. If we knew nothing about what he was dealt, then it would be 11% chance he was dealt two scum. Now that we know he discarded Mafia Goon, we have to update the probabilities.

Figuring out the actual probability would be two complicated and would involve making some assumptions about his preferences, but here is a very rough estimate using Bayes' Theorem:
Let A = SPACKlick was dealt 2 scum.
Let B = SPACKlick discarded a scum.
We're looking for P(A|B): the probability he was dealt 2 scum given that he discarded a scum.
P(A|B) = (P(B|A)P(A))/P(B)
P(B|A) = 1
P(A) ≈ 1/9
P(B) is where it gets complicated. Let's assume for the purposes of this illustration that he discards a card at random.
Let C = SPACKlick was dealt 1 scum.
Let D = SPACKlick was dealt 0 scum.
P(B) = P(A)P(B|A) + P(C)P(B|C) + P(D)P(B|D) ≈ (1/9)(1) + (4/9)(1/2) + (4/9)(0) = 1/3
P(A|B) = (P(B|A)P(A))/P(B) ≈ (1)(1/9)/(1/3) = 1/3

So, assuming SPACKlick discarded at random, there's only a 2/3 chance he's town. But if we assume a bias against choosing town, that lowers the probability of him being town. On the other hand, if we assume a bias against vanilla, that raises the probability of him being town.

If anyone feels like guessing people's preferences in order to do a more thorough Bayesian analysis in an attempt to figure out the exact probabilities of any given player being town given what they discarded, feel free. Otherwise, we can just play the game.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SDK » Fri May 08, 2015 8:42 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:Were the odds of card rolling identical in the original roll and the reroll?

Yes. Specifically what I did was take the entire list of 100 roles, put it into random.org's list randomizer, and then gave the first and second to SPACKlick, the third and fourth to SirGabriel, and so on down the player list to the 16th entry. I did exactly the same thing when rerolling.
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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby Vytron » Fri May 08, 2015 9:09 pm UTC

I disagree with SirGabriel's analysis, for the following reasons:

Either SPACKlick was dealt:

2 town roles
1 town and one scum
1 scum and one town
2 scum

Note, the middle ones are indistinguishable (it only affects whether the scum role is at the bottom or top), so we have:

2 town roles
1 scum and one town (in any order)
2 scum

Now, what we want to know is what is the chance that SPACKlick is scum.

The following is true:

SPACKlick is scum IF AND ONLY IF he was given two scum roles.

We know he wasn't given 2 town roles or he'd have been unable to discard one.

The chance that he's scum is 1 out of 9. It's impossible for him to be scum more times than this, because it'd require the chance to be given 2 scum roles to be higher than 1 in 9.

The chance that he gets 2 town roles don't matter, because we know it didn't happen.

The chance that he gets a town and mafia role and discard the town one don't matter, because we know it didn't happen.

He either got two scum and discarded one or got town and mafia and discarded mafia, 8 out of 9 times the latter happened, this doesn't need Bayesian analysis, and that's flawed.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SirGabriel » Fri May 08, 2015 9:45 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:He either got two scum and discarded one or got town and mafia and discarded mafia, 8 out of 9 times the latter happened, this doesn't need Bayesian analysis, and that's flawed.

I'm not sure where you're getting this. 4/9 of the time he's dealt two town, 4/9 of the time he's dealt a town and a scum, 1/9 of the time he's dealt two scum.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SPACKlick » Fri May 08, 2015 10:07 pm UTC

It's simple order doesn't matter. One of my cards was scum (33/100) the other is scum 32/99 and town 67/99.

Don't buddy me with bad math vytron. That's a dodgy tell there.

For everyone else who discarded town (67/100) town and then 33/99 scum 66/99 town. The odds are basically the same for random discard. If you take into account non-random choice I haven't done the numbers but I reckon it makes people more scummy the better the role they discarded on both "Take the role with more/more useful abilities" and "Take the scum role if offered"

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby Vytron » Fri May 08, 2015 10:17 pm UTC

No, my math is correct, go ahead and try it. If a person discards scum then the chance they're scum is equal to the chance they were given two scum roles, whatever they are.

There's this variant where you're scum 25% of the time:

There's a 50% chance that you're given a scum role.

So, flip a coin twice, for each tail you get a scum role.

Now, regardless of what role you decide to discard, it's physically impossible for you to be scum more than 25% of the time, for the times where you discarded scum. The other times don't matter.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SPACKlick » Fri May 08, 2015 10:26 pm UTC

No, you're scum 25% of the time INCLUDING times where you didn't have scum to discard.

Taking a flat 1/3
T T = 2/3*2/3 = 4/9
T S = 2/3*1/3 = 2/9
S T = 1/3*2/3 = 2/9
S S = 1/3*1/3 = 1/9

Assuming a random discard

T T D(T)=1 D(S)=0
T S D(T)=1/2 D(S)=1/2
S T D(T)=1/2 D(S)=1/2
S S D(T)=0 D(T)=1

So In total I discard Scum scum given I discarded scum

TTDT = 4/9 * 1 = 4/9
TTDS = 4/9 * 0 = 0
TSDT = 2/9 * 1/2 = 1/9
TSDS = 2/9 * 1/2 = 1/9
STDT = 2/9 * 1/2 = 1/9
STDS = 2/9 * 1/2 = 1/9
SSDT = 1/9 * 0 = 0
SSDS = 1/9 * 1 = 1/9

The underlined are the one's where I discarded scum 0+1/9+1/9+1/9 = 1/3
Of those I am scum 1/9 so (1/9)/(1/3) = 1/3

It's not quite one in 3, but close enough.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SPACKlick » Fri May 08, 2015 10:30 pm UTC

SPACKlick wrote:S S D(T)=0 D(T)=1

Should of course say

S S D(T)=0 D(S)=1

One last bit of maths
We know 1 Scum role and 7 Town roles aren't out. So randomly everyone has a 32/91 Scum chance and 60/91 Town chance. Which is only altered by the proportion of undiscarded roles "preferable" to the discarded card

Anyway enough maths. Especially bad maths.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SirGabriel » Fri May 08, 2015 10:36 pm UTC

FoS Vytron for acting like he's bad at math.

And after rereading SPACKlick's first post, I think there is a mistake, but I'll let the mod clear it up.
SPACKlick wrote:Can't be psychotrooper because that would have given Gabriel no result

My understanding is that psychotrooper/godfather have no affect on the clairvoyant.

If a Psychotrooper is the only alien, or a Godfather is the only mafia, would that result in a Clairvoyant receiving inaccurate information about the number of factions?

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SPACKlick » Fri May 08, 2015 10:39 pm UTC

Ah I hadn't thought the psychotrooper would just be a godfather, I thought it was far more powerful than that

"All investigators will receive "No Result" while you are still alive."

Note, it doesn't say "on you". I thought it fully turned off all investigative abilities.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SirGabriel » Fri May 08, 2015 10:47 pm UTC

Well, we might as well clarify that too.

Does the Psychotrooper block all investigative abilities, even when directed at other targets, or only those attempting to investigate the Psychotrooper?
Does Clairvoyant count as an investigative ability as far as the Psychotrooper is concerned?


Although after looking through the rules, the psychotrooper would be completely useless if it only worked on investigations directed toward itself, since it appears that no one else can cause a "No Result".

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby Vytron » Sat May 09, 2015 2:16 am UTC

SirGabriel wrote:FoS Vytron for acting like he's bad at math.


Yeah...

Vote: Vytron

Vote me, lynch me, but that doesn't change the facts.

I think this is like those mind blowing mathematical tricks where the outcomes is against your intuition, so you're blown away to discover things aren't as you thought they were.

So, I'll just show that there's an 11% chance that SPACKlick is scum, then I won't mention this issue ever again.

To understand what is going on you need a base case:

Suppose SDK didn't do what he did, instead, he gave first a town role, for certain. Then he handed out a scum role with 1/3 chance.

What we gather from someone ditching the scum role, is that they're 100% chance town. The events could only possibly had been that they got a town role, followed by a mafia role, and then ditched it, keeping the town one.

Now, suppose SDK didn't do what he did, instead, he rolled a number from 1 to 100, and if it was a 1, he hands a scum role, otherwise he hands a town role. Then he hands a scum role with 1/3 chance.

Things now look different, but not much. Actually, the chances the player is scum don't even raise 1%.

What happens is:

There's a 99% chance this is the base case.

Yep, this is key to understanding what is going on, because, the chance of this person being town is at least 99%. Because there's a 99% chance SDK gave the player a town role, then a scum role, and that's the one that was discarded.

Then, from the other 1%, there's a 2/3 chance that SDK gave them a town role, and 1/3 that they got a scum role. So, they're only scum if they received a scum role initially and then the 1/3 chance one. They're scum 0.333...% of the time.

Next, suppose SDK didn't do what he did, instead, he rolled a number from 1 to 100, and if it was a number from 1 to 15, he hands a scum role, otherwise he hands a town role. Then he hands a scum role with 1/3 chance.

What is the chance that is is the base case and that SDK handed the town role first?

85%

So the player has a chance of being town of at least 85%.

From the remaining 15%, 1/3 of the time the player would have gotten a scum role, so they have a chance of being scum of 5%.

And finally here's our case. SDK rolled a number from 1 to 3, and if it was a 1, he hands a scum role, otherwise he hands a town role. Then he hands a scum role with 1/3 chance.

This means there's a 66% chance that this is the base case, so that player has at least 66% chance of being town.

From the remaining 33%, the player already has a scum role (this isn't the base case), so either they got town 66% of the time (22% total) or they get the second scum role (11% chance total.)

So the final totals for a player that discarded scum are:
66% Town (they got town first, then they got the scum role they discarded)
22% Town (they're in the other 33%, receiving the scum role first, then their town role)
11% Scum (they're in the other 33%, receiving the scum role first, then their second scum role)

QED

It would be hilarious if SPACKlick turned out to be on that 11% and was scum, though!

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SDK » Sat May 09, 2015 2:22 am UTC

The Psychotrooper will cause all investigations to receive no result. Neither it nor the Godfather will affect the Clairvoyant.
The biggest number (63 quintillion googols in debt)

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SPACKlick » Sat May 09, 2015 10:15 am UTC

Vytron wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:FoS Vytron for acting like he's bad at math.


Yeah...

Vote: Vytron

Vote me, lynch me, but that doesn't change the facts.

Jester or foolish because I think you're pretty scummy and it wouldn't be hard to leave you at L-1, but I won't yet.

I think this is like those mind blowing mathematical tricks where the outcomes is against your intuition, so you're blown away to discover things aren't as you thought they were.

Please consider that YOU are in that position.

To understand what is going on you need a base case:
Suppose SDK didn't do what he did, instead, he gave first a town role, for certain. Then he handed out a scum role with 1/3 chance.
What we gather from someone ditching the scum role, is that they're 100% chance town. The events could only possibly had been that they got a town role, followed by a mafia role, and then ditched it, keeping the town one.

TT = 2/3
TS = 1/3
ST = 0
SS = 0

TTDT=2/3
TTDS=0
TSDT=1/6
TSDS=1/6

Total scum discards 1/6 of which 1/6 leave Town (1/6)/(1/6) = 1. So we agree

Now, suppose SDK didn't do what he did, instead, he rolled a number from 1 to 100, and if it was a 1, he hands a scum role, otherwise he hands a town role. Then he hands a scum role with 1/3 chance.
Things now look different, but not much. Actually, the chances the player is scum don't even raise 1%.
What happens is:
There's a 99% chance this is the base case.
Yep, this is key to understanding what is going on, because, the chance of this person being town is at least 99%. Because there's a 99% chance SDK gave the player a town role, then a scum role, and that's the one that was discarded.
Then, from the other 1%, there's a 2/3 chance that SDK gave them a town role, and 1/3 that they got a scum role. So, they're only scum if they received a scum role initially and then the 1/3 chance one. They're scum 0.333...% of the time.


TT = 99/100 * 2/3 = 33/50
TS = 99/100 * 1/3 = 33/100
ST = 1/100 * 2/3 = 1/150
SS = 1/100 * 1/3 = 1/300

TTDT = 33/50 * 1 = 33/60
TTDS = 33/50 * 0 = 0
TSDT = 33/100 * 1/2 = 33/200
TSDS = 33/100 * 1/2 = 33/200
STDT = 1/150 * 1/2 = 1/300
STDS = 1/150 * 0 = 1/300
SSDT = 1/300 * 0 = 0
SSDS = 1/300 * 1 = 1/300

We can ignore all cases where I discard a town card because we are given that I didn't So the odds of being scum are SSDS/(TTDS+TSDS+STDS+SSDS)

(1/300) / (0 + 33/200 + 1/300 + 1/300) = 2/103

Your mistake is as follows

Next, suppose SDK didn't do what he did, instead, he rolled a number from 1 to 100, and if it was a number from 1 to 15, he hands a scum role, otherwise he hands a town role. Then he hands a scum role with 1/3 chance.
What is the chance that is is the base case and that SDK handed the town role first?
85%
So the player has a chance of being town of at least 85%.

No, because in those 85% most times I COULD not have discarded scum. I would not have had a scum to discard. We ignore 2/3 of the base cases because they're town town.

I used the following code to generate 20,000 trials to test myself
Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Sub ODDSofSCUM()

Dim FirstCardTown As Boolean
Dim SecondCardTown As Boolean
Dim TestNumber As Integer

Dim OddsCard1Town As Double
Dim OddsCard2Town As Double

OddsCard1Town = InputBox("How likely is it the first card is town?", "The first role", 2 / 3)
OddsCard2Town = InputBox("How likely is it the first card is town?", "The first role", 2 / 3)

For TestNumber = 1 To 10000
FirstCardTown = Rnd <= OddsCard1Town
SecondCardTown = Rnd <= OddsCard2Town

If FirstCardTown Then
Range("A1").Offset(2 * TestNumber) = "Town"
Range("B2").Offset(2 * TestNumber) = "Town"
Else
Range("A1").Offset(2 * TestNumber) = "Scum"
Range("B2").Offset(2 * TestNumber) = "Scum"
End If

If SecondCardTown Then
Range("B1").Offset(2 * TestNumber) = "Town"
Range("A2").Offset(2 * TestNumber) = "Town"
Else
Range("B1").Offset(2 * TestNumber) = "Scum"
Range("A2").Offset(2 * TestNumber) = "Scum"
End If

Next TestNumber


Range("A2") = "KEPT"
Range("B2") = "Discarded"

End Sub


From this
20,000 trials
6,698 Scum discarded
Of the 6,698, 2,294 were scum retained
So in 1/9 cases I was scum discarding scum, but in 1/3 cases where I discarded scum, I was also scum.

For reference 13,302 cases discarded town, Of the 13,302, 4,404 were scum so 1/3 odds of being scum.

The long and the short of it is, on random discard we all have a 1/3 shot of being scum.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby Vytron » Sat May 09, 2015 12:15 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:I'll just show that there's an 11% chance that SPACKlick is scum, then I won't mention this issue ever again.


I forgot to add here "because if this doesn't convince you, nothing will."

This is irrefutable, I'll just paste it again (this doesn't count as mentioning the issue, since I'm not arguing about it):

Vytron wrote:And finally here's our case. SDK rolled a number from 1 to 3, and if it was a 1, he hands a scum role, otherwise he hands a town role. Then he hands a scum role with 1/3 chance.

This means there's a 66% chance that this is the base case, so that player has at least 66% chance of being town.

From the remaining 33%, the player already has a scum role (this isn't the base case), so either they got town 66% of the time (22% total) or they get the second scum role (11% chance total.)

So the final totals for a player that discarded scum are:
66% Town (they got town first, then they got the scum role they discarded)
22% Town (they're in the other 33%, receiving the scum role first, then their town role)
11% Scum (they're in the other 33%, receiving the scum role first, then their second scum role)

QED


I'll probably end voting SPACKlick, he claims I'm scummy because we disagree on this, looks like scum ready to start a townie mislynch, but let's see how other people react, hopefully people seeing that the base case required for one to discard a scum role while keeping another only happens 1 out of 9 times, though we might be on that one.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SPACKlick » Sat May 09, 2015 12:54 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:And finally here's our case. SDK rolled a number from 1 to 3, and if it was a 1, he hands a scum role, otherwise he hands a town role. Then he hands a scum role with 1/3 chance.

This means there's a 66% chance that this is the base case, so that player has at least 66% chance of being town.

From the remaining 33%, the player already has a scum role (this isn't the base case), so either they got town 66% of the time (22% total) or they get the second scum role (11% chance total.)

So the final totals for a player that discarded scum are:
66% Town (they got town first, then they got the scum role they discarded)
22% Town (they're in the other 33%, receiving the scum role first, then their town role)
11% Scum (they're in the other 33%, receiving the scum role first, then their second scum role)

QED

You make a mistake there by including the full 66%, Because Of that 66%, 66% of the time they discard town.
It's 22% town first Scum second
22% Scum first Town second
11% Scum twice
Which is 1/5 chance of having scum. Assuming random discard you're twice as likely to discard scum if you have 2 scum so it's 2/6 scum having discarded scum. You are plain wrong on this vytron.

Everyone, on random discard has 32/92 chance scum 60/92 chance town. For the simple reason that on random discard it makes no difference if we're all dealt 2 and randomly discard one or if those 8 cards were taken out of the deck and we were each dealt a random card.

Everyone is ~1/3 scum, whatever they discarded.

Why on earth would I be arguing I'm 3 times as likely to be scum as you think unless I was sure?

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SPACKlick » Sat May 09, 2015 12:55 pm UTC

EBWOP because of a nother minor error

Because Of that 66%, 66% of the time they discard town.

I should make it clear here, that the second 66% refers to them being dealt 2 town so they only have town to discard.

66% of the first 66% is not in the sample because they had no scum to discard.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby mpolo » Sat May 09, 2015 4:48 pm UTC

Not a lot of time here: In the first deal, I received two scum roles (a chameleon goo and a mafia traitor cop). In this deal, I rejected the coroner role because it seems rather weak in its utility value. It provides something useful, but only minimally…
Image <-- Evil experiment

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SirGabriel » Sat May 09, 2015 4:59 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:Not a lot of time here: In the first deal, I received two scum roles (a chameleon goo and a mafia traitor cop). In this deal, I rejected the coroner role because it seems rather weak in its utility value. It provides something useful, but only minimally…

Wow, goo was doing really well on the first deal (I chose red goo over mafia clairvoyant).

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SirGabriel » Sat May 09, 2015 6:03 pm UTC

A little analysis on the roles:
There was only one card each for Area 51 Detective, One-Shot Town Day Vigilante, Area 51 Immunologist, and Mason Reflexive Doctor. These have been discarded and so are definitely not in the game.
There are several roles which have very limited powers: Vanilla Townie, Backup Town Cop, Town Mason, Town Nymphomaniac, Treestump, Lynchbait, Macho Death Kingmaker, Macho One-Shot Kingmaker, Town Supersaint, Mafia Goon, Mafia Traitor Cop, Baby Alien Monarch, Pseudojester. I would not expect any of these roles to be in the game (although SPACKlick or ajh might have chosen one of them over vanilla).

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby ajh » Sat May 09, 2015 8:34 pm UTC

SPACKlick wrote:Umm, Sir Gabriel, my read on you so far is you chose a scum role over a town role.
Where does that read come from?
SPACKlick wrote:Don't buddy me with bad math vytron. That's a dodgy tell there.

If you take into account non-random choice I haven't done the numbers but I reckon it makes people more scummy the better the role they discarded on both "Take the role with more/more useful abilities" and "Take the scum role if offered"
Must have missed the bad math buddying. You two disagree, with Vytron giving you better townie chances, isn't that all?
Can you parse the second paragraph for me?
SPACKlick wrote:Anyway enough maths. Especially bad maths.
Oh yes please.
SirGabriel wrote:FoS Vytron for acting like he's bad at math.

My understanding is that psychotrooper/godfather have no affect on the clairvoyant.
Must have missed the acting, too.
Sounds like your claim is true.
SPACKlick wrote:You make a mistake there by including the full 66%, Because Of that 66%, 66% of the time they discard town.
It's 22% town first Scum second
22% Scum first Town second
11% Scum twice
Which is 1/5 chance of having scum. Assuming random discard you're twice as likely to discard scum if you have 2 scum so it's 2/6 scum having discarded scum. You are plain wrong on this vytron.

Everyone is ~1/3 scum, whatever they discarded.

Why on earth would I be arguing I'm 3 times as likely to be scum as you think unless I was sure?
I don't get the first section. But the probabilities change if we know what everybody discarded. Of course, additional info excludes some paths. Go read on the Monty Hall problem.
Lastly: Your point, but there's wine.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SPACKlick » Sat May 09, 2015 8:51 pm UTC

ajh wrote:
SPACKlick wrote:Umm, Sir Gabriel, my read on you so far is you chose a scum role over a town role.
Where does that read come from?
Because he explicitly said he would favour a scum role over a town role and clairvoyant is as likely to be scum as town (same number of each).
ajh wrote:
SPACKlick wrote:Don't buddy me with bad math vytron. That's a dodgy tell there.

If you take into account non-random choice I haven't done the numbers but I reckon it makes people more scummy the better the role they discarded on both "Take the role with more/more useful abilities" and "Take the scum role if offered"
Must have missed the bad math buddying. You two disagree, with Vytron giving you better townie chances, isn't that all?
First point, slightly tongue in cheek at Vytron using bad maths to make me seem more towny. And I believe it's a dodgy tell as in not a reliable tell but still a tell because I don't believe vytron doesn't get the maths.
ajh wrote:Can you parse the second paragraph for me?
I haven't run a simulation but I believe the better the role you discarded the more likely it is that you are scum. I believe this assumption holds true whether people are operating on "pick the scummiest role possible" and "pick the most powerful role possible" methods for picking their role.
ajh wrote:
SPACKlick wrote:Why on earth would I be arguing I'm 3 times as likely to be scum as you think unless I was sure?
Lastly: Your point, but there's wine.
I'm not arguing I'm more likely town because I'm arguing I'm more likely (in pure numbers) to be scum, I'm arguing I wouldn't be arguing it either way unless I was sure of the maths because it would be stupid to do so if I was unsure. I was making a point about my confidence in the numbers not a point about my alignment.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby ajh » Sat May 09, 2015 9:14 pm UTC

SPACKlick wrote:Jester or foolish because I think you're pretty scummy and it wouldn't be hard to leave you at L-1, but I won't yet.
Now, suppose SDK didn't do what he did, instead, he rolled a number from 1 to 100, and if it was a 1, he hands a scum role, otherwise he hands a town role. Then he hands a scum role with 1/3 chance.
Things now look different, but not much. Actually, the chances the player is scum don't even raise 1%.
What happens is:
There's a 99% chance this is the base case.
Yep, this is key to understanding what is going on, because, the chance of this person being town is at least 99%. Because there's a 99% chance SDK gave the player a town role, then a scum role, and that's the one that was discarded.
Then, from the other 1%, there's a 2/3 chance that SDK gave them a town role, and 1/3 that they got a scum role. So, they're only scum if they received a scum role initially and then the 1/3 chance one. They're scum 0.333...% of the time.
TT = 99/100 * 2/3 = 33/50
TS = 99/100 * 1/3 = 33/100
ST = 1/100 * 2/3 = 1/150
SS = 1/100 * 1/3 = 1/300

TTDT = 33/50 * 1 = 33/60
TTDS = 33/50 * 0 = 0
TSDT = 33/100 * 1/2 = 33/200
TSDS = 33/100 * 1/2 = 33/200
STDT = 1/150 * 1/2 = 1/300
STDS = 1/150 * 0 = 1/300
SSDT = 1/300 * 0 = 0
SSDS = 1/300 * 1 = 1/300

We can ignore all cases where I discard a town card because we are given that I didn't So the odds of being scum are SSDS/(TTDS+TSDS+STDS+SSDS)
(1/300) / (0 + 33/200 + 1/300 + 1/300) = 2/103

Your mistake is as follows
Next, suppose SDK didn't do what he did, instead, he rolled a number from 1 to 100, and if it was a number from 1 to 15, he hands a scum role, otherwise he hands a town role. Then he hands a scum role with 1/3 chance.
What is the chance that is is the base case and that SDK handed the town role first?
85%
So the player has a chance of being town of at least 85%.
No, because in those 85% most times I COULD not have discarded scum. I would not have had a scum to discard. We ignore 2/3 of the base cases because they're town town.
Now do you want to vote Vytron or not and why? FOS.
Wait, isn't SSDS already the final probability you're scum, the same result Vytron got? Why are you dividing, disregarding the other cases? That's where you're off, putting additional info into the calculations.
Yes, in 85% of all cases you have to be town. But if you're gonna ignore the impossible results you have to adjust the probabilities. It works fine if you do the full tree and then cut the branches (i.e. move the probabilities from one to a sibling so they're 0 and 1 respectively, because you know they didn't happen).

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SPACKlick » Sat May 09, 2015 9:52 pm UTC

SSDS Is the Probability overall (with no additional information) that I'm "Scum who discarded Scum". The Proportion of all players in all possible games who are scum who discarded scum is SSDS.
We have the additional information that "I Discarded scum"
So we need to find the probability that I'm "Scum who discarded scum given I discarded scum" That's why things are divided. The pruning the branches you refer to is where I have 8 rows with 4 underlined. All the underlined ones are relevant all the others are ignored because they are people who discarded town.

In 82.833% of all cases Town is discarded. Those don't apply because we know I discarded scum
In the remaining 17.166% of cases, where Scum is discarded 1.9417% of them were leave Scum and 98.0583% of them leave Town.

With the 67/100 proportion.
overall 10.66% of cases are scum scum.
Overall 67% of cases discard Town. (these take no further part in our calculation)
Overall 33% of cases discard Scum.
Of the 33% where scum is discarded 32.32% of cases leave scum and 67.67% of cases leave town.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby Vytron » Sat May 09, 2015 11:55 pm UTC

Request to modprod Madge, ahippo, and New User

Because it's ridiculous they've been quiet for so long.

SPACKlick wrote:Because Of that 66%, 66% of the time they discard town.


I basically made the base case just for this: a case where SDK gives town 100% of the time, then he does the rolls, the he hands town 66% of the time. This is identical to the scenario where SDK gives town first 66% of the time, for the cases the rolled town first. Those are the ones you're talking about. In the base case they're irrelevant (we agree the person is 100% scum, they're 0% town because we know the cases they got two towns are out.) In a similar vein, you have to take out the two town cases out of your calculations for the actual case.

SPACKlick wrote:Everyone is ~1/3 scum, whatever they discarded.


As ajh points out, this is quite not the same, but still similar, to the Monthy Hall problem. Sure, every door is ~1/3 car whatever door is discarded, yet when a goat is discarded you double your winning chances by switching doors.

Also, please take a look at the Boy or Girl paradox.

In that one, the probabilities to guess the gender of a given child changes once you know the gender of their sibling, just like in this game the probabilities change once you know the card they discarded.

And it's very fun we're arguing about this like that, because it seems people argued about the Boy Girl Paradox just like us, and I quote:

The paradox has frequently stimulated a great deal of controversy. Many people argued strongly for both sides with a great deal of confidence, sometimes showing disdain for those who took the opposing view. The paradox stems from whether the problem setup is similar for the two questions. The intuitive answer is 1/2. This answer is intuitive if the question leads the reader to believe that there are two equally likely possibilities for the sex of the second child (i.e., boy and girl), and that the probability of these outcomes is absolute, not conditional.


Turns out the chance of the gender being a girl is 1/3, not 1/2. You could say, the chance of being a boy or a girl is 1/2 and the gender of their sibling is irrelevant, and you'd be wrong.

Unvote
Vote: SPACKlick


All his circus is wine. The only reason he has been arguing with me is to show that if he was actually scum, he'd not be arguing against their own odds of being town. Actually, his behavior is exactly what I'd expect from scum!SPACKlick, arguing against their own towniness to convince us only town would do that, and this is regardless of the probability that SDK handed then both scum roles.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SPACKlick » Sun May 10, 2015 1:22 am UTC

More Maths
Spoiler:
Vytron, I think you'll find if you look at wikipedia I'm more than familiar with the Monty hall Problem being a contributor to the page (more to the talk and arguments page as well as creating a file relevant to the page).

I'm arguing the maths for two reasons 1) because it's important people get it right to accurately assess Scum odds and 2) I love to argue the maths on any topic, it's sort of why I came to XKCD. As I've said. I wouldn't dare make the wine argument. I'd be arguing this just as hard if I were scum as town. I'd be arguing just as hard if more people had discarded scum or if I hadn't discarded scum at all.

I'm glad you're aware of the boy girl paradox because similar maths is in play here. I'll quote the wiki page

Wikipedia wrote:Mr. Smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys?
...a precise formulation of the question is critical to getting different answers for question 1 and 2. Specifically ... a "failure to specify the randomizing procedure" could lead readers to interpret the question in two distinct ways:
From all families with two children, at least one of whom is a boy, a family is chosen at random. This would yield the answer of 1/3.
From all families with two children, one child is selected at random, and the sex of that child is specified to be a boy. This would yield an answer of 1/2.


Equivalent
Analogy wrote:SPACKlick has two roles. At least one of them is Scum. What is the probability that both roles are scum?
...a precise formulation of the question is critical to getting different answers for question 1 and 2. Specifically ... a "failure to specify the randomizing procedure" could lead readers to interpret the question in two distinct ways:
From all players with two roles, at least one of whom is scum, a player is chosen at random. This would yield the answer of 4/19 (21.1%).
From all players with two roles, one role is selected at random, and that roles is scum. This would yield an answer of 8/23 (34.8%).


(numbers in the above take into account that there are 7 vanilla roles I couldn't have had)
[For those who discarded town, I make the number exactly the same accounting for 6 town roles and a scum role they couldn't have had, adding my town role it's 32/91 (35.2%) scum for each player]

We are in situation 2 here because we're not looking at everyone who had scum (because some of them could have, and from my POV must have, discarded town) We're looking at one player who discarded one role at random (because as yet in the maths we haven't considered powers affecting choice)

Now if we take choice into account IMHO discarding a vanilla role is close to a null tell because I would presume most people went for the more powerful or interesting role.

I'm happy to become a more active scum hunter but there's limited content to hunt on

SirGabriel said IF they had the choice they'd choose a mafia role. They claimed Clairvoyant (Chosen over AlienCop), this says to me they're slightly more likely scum than complete null.
Vytron has been pushing bad maths all over. It makes me think they want to get targeted.
ajh is being ajh I have no read on that yet.
New User and Mpolo I would like to hear more from. I'm not convinced by mpolo's argument that coroner is of little utility. The question is whether there are more "better" roles in town or scum?
New User discarded a Day vig, a role I consider very powerful. Probably the most suspicious discard.
madge and ahippo have suspicion for lurking. Awaiting modprod

Vote New User
For discarding Day Vig and for lurking.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby Vytron » Sun May 10, 2015 2:48 am UTC

The maths don't matter, it's not like we're going to clear you just because your chances of being scum are low (or they aren't.) What matters is your reaction, and it looks pretty bad, as you keep pointing out over and over that you're making these claims because you're sure of them, not because of your alignment, and that you'd be making the same assertions regardless of if you were town or scum.

I've seen it before: people that really don't want to lie, so they avoid making the assertion that they're town at all cost, so they can't be caught lying claiming town.

I on the other hand can say:

I'm town, and if I was scum, I wouldn't be as stupid as to be drawing so much attention to myself. So, yes, I accept that my behavior would be different if I was scum.

SPACKlick claims that he'd play exactly the same way as town and as scum, and I find this to be a difficult claim to hold, because I've seen many, many top players play differently as scum, and be caught, and lose their games, because the fact that the mod told you you're scum makes you act differently. Some players even avoid looking at their role they got until the night just so they can act townie D1.

And now SPACKlick leads a vote on New User just because they discarded a vig role, without even thinking that they might have concluded being a vig may be hurtful, or useless, to town (some people claim the best strategy for vig is to withhold their kills because it's most likely they'll hit town), or whatever.

Looks like the most easy target to convince people to vote for, so now I think that SPACKlick and New User are likely of different alignments and that all SPACKlick is doing is trying his best to lead a mislynch.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SDK » Sun May 10, 2015 3:29 am UTC

I'll prod come Monday, according to the 72 hour rule.
The biggest number (63 quintillion googols in debt)

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby SirGabriel » Sun May 10, 2015 4:05 am UTC

SPACKlick wrote:SirGabriel said IF they had the choice they'd choose a mafia role.

Actually I didn't. I said that I suspect that is how most players are operating, and I gave evidence for that conclusion, but I said nothing about myself in particular.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby Madge » Sun May 10, 2015 6:33 am UTC

The maths stuff is all tl;dr for me at the moment; at the end of the day, with, what, 5, 6 players(?) we'll have too small a sample size to really make factual guesses.

Now I'm quite that people report choosing to be goo and stuff in the original deal; in the original deal I was offered the choice between vanilla town and universal backup. Evidently my original assumption about the game needing a re-roll (that we all chose town and thus Lived Happily Ever After) was incorrect.

We aren't guaranteed to even HAVE aliens on every setup, so that's why I discarded the conspiracy theorist; and besides, I don't want to be a miller. Ultimately, I have to say I was never given an opportunity to be non-town; but if I were, I would have chosen the more exciting/interesting/useful role.

But yeah, on the subject of the maths, I do think that discarding a scum role gives you town points; but discarding town roles doesn't give scum points. If you guys really really want me to I can ask some of the people I know IRL to help me do my own version of the maths and come up with an independant result on how much discarding scum is a towntell (helps because I was in a rush writing this so I kind of skimmed a lot of the hardcore maths parts especially the ones that were hidden in spoilers).

Sorry for not posting earlier, BTW. Everyone hopefully understands that the weekends are low activity for most of us, and I’m not really an exception. Regrettably I probably won't make another post for like 24 hours but hopefully you'll all respect that :P
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby mpolo » Sun May 10, 2015 6:38 am UTC

I don't think that it is ironclad that everybody is going to want to choose scum over town (though that seems to have happened in round 1). I got two scum roles to choose from the first time around and two town roles the second time. I chose the one that was more interesting to me each time. I could not get my head around the Mafia Traitor Cop to make it anything but "I sure hope I don't get lynched, and I can't really do anything about it." So I took the "automatically die night two, and have a miniscule chance of winning in the meantime" role (Chameleon Goo).

This time, I had a role whose utility I understood and would be able to use, and a role that I judged to be pretty close to useless — to get any information at all, the Coroner has to guess who is going to be killed that night. Which means I might have received one or two results at all over the course of the whole game. If the coroner were able to target a dead player from the night before it might be useful, but as I understand it, the role is targetting a live player and hoping that they die so as to get information. In my opinion, this would hurt town more than help it, as the Coroner is as likely to get fingered by a tracker or watcher (assuming those are there, because I didn't study the whole role list before choosing, just my two roles). Maybe I completely misunderstood the roles, though, since SPACKlick seems to think that Coroner is a good role…

I have not read the matematical/logical text walls yet. I'm debating whether to do it all.

(Ninjaed by Madge, but her post doesn't really change anything.)
Image <-- Evil experiment

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Re: Best Idea Mafia - Day 1 - Straitjacket Love

Postby Vytron » Sun May 10, 2015 7:19 am UTC

Madge wrote:I do think that discarding a scum role gives you town points


Thank you, this is what I argue because it's much more unlikely that people had 2 scum roles to discard, and had to keep one of them, while SDK and SPACKlick argue that we don't gather any information whatsoever from what people discard, because the card they kept had a 1/3 chance to be scum, and that's about it.

Meta (this spoiler fine to read)
Spoiler:
I want to badly to turn this out into a Monty Hall-like problem and post it in the Puzzles subforum, though I quite don't have a way of making the ending, or the point, interesting.

This is what I have currently:

Monty Hall has two groups of three doors, in where these groups are separated.

In each group, there are 2 goats and a car.

Then, he asks Ana to pick one door in each group, and she does.

Monty then eliminates one of the groups, he reveals that Ana picked some door on some group, and that it was the car (he opens the door to reveal the car) but it doesn't matter.

Now, he shows, only to Ana what is in the door of the other group, and she exclaims:

Ana: "Wow! I picked the car in both groups!"

And now, Monty turns to YOU. And he says, that if you know whether Ana's last statement is truthful YOU win the car.

What strategy should you follow and how often do you win the car.

--------

This is equivalent to the problem of knowing if SPACKlick is scum, because he'd have gotten a scum role on both the first roll of SDK.

The problem with the problem (and why I'm not posting it on puzzle games) is that regardless of your analysis, you should always say that Ana was lying. The only disagreement is how often one wins the car.

I argue:

You win the car 8 out of 9 times.

Case 1:
Ana picked the first goat of the first group.
If Ana did that, then Ana picked the car of the second group with 100% certainty, as otherwise Monty doesn't have a group to discard.
He discards the group's car, and Ana lied. You win.

Case 2:
Ana picked the second goat of the first group.
If Ana did that, then Ana picked the car of the second group with 100% certainty, as otherwise Monty doesn't have a group to discard.
He discards the group's car, and Ana lied you win.

Case 3:
Ana picked the car of the first group.

Now, the thing to note is that no matter what happens, Case 1 or Case 2 happen 2 out of three times, so the chance Ana lied is at least 2 out of three.

If Ana picked the car of the first group, then 2 out of three times, Monty had to discard it, because Ana picked one of the goats of the second group. The last time, Ana picks the car in both groups, Monty discards any of them, and Ana is truthful. You lose and Ana only picks cars in both groups 1 out of 9 times.

SDK and SPACKlick argue:

The whole part where it's revealed Ana got the car on one of the groups is irrelevant, because Ana's statement is equivalent to she saying "I picked the car in the group that wasn't discarded!", i.e. both this statement and her actual statement have the same truth values.

The chance of her picking the car in one of the groups is 1/3, thus this is the chance that she's telling the truth. You only win 2 out of three times.

--------

Note that if SDK and SPACKlick are right then people discarding a scum role don't get any townie points, because they only getting two scum roles, one to keep, and one to discard, only happening 1 out of 9 times, is irrelevant.


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