ElectricHaze wrote:Marshall's mob: There is only one member left. It is possible they are one of our lurkers because this group lost their godfather day1 and then MoA to a self destruct mod-kill day2, and the last member might just be lurking because they have no chance to win. I'm looking at kalira/JoJ/Freezeblade/sdk as our potential last member here. It might be useful to remove this faction and cut down the number of NKs floating around.
Kingsly's mob: So far this group has only lost aardvarki due to a modkill for inactivity. Freezeblade/madge/vytron all claimed to be original members of this group, and outed aardvarki as a fourth original member shortly before he got his modkill. This leaves us with 3 Kingsly's mob left I think. Definitely want to start busting this group up, but I'm not sure if it takes priority over finishing off Marshall's mob.
I like your interpretation of MM activity, 'cause having your faction being decimated by D3 isn't exactly a motivation to keep participating. If we look at activity over time, JoJ, Freezeblade, and SDK have been consistent (as in lurking/apathetic). But, kalira was posting decently on D1, trailed off on D2, and hasn't posted at all on D3. Given that it has been more than 48 hours
I am guessing kalira is due for either replacement or modkill. Regardless of that, I could definitely see this being another MoA situation, where kalira was either swapped to scum or culted and lost interest in the game. Wait and see what Dr Ug does I guess?
Also, ugh. I keep forgetting the dumbness with KM having a 4th member, which throws my earlier post off. If we assume 1 MM/3 KM/1 cult remain and are targeting town, I... I feel like we should be getting closer to LYLO/MYLO, but I'm not seeing it yet? Even if we mislynch every day
, and scum kill only town, we'll have:
D3 - 15 players, 10 town 1 MM/3 KM/1? cult
D4 - 12 players, 07 town 1 MM/3 KM/1? cult
D5 - 09 players, 04 town 1 MM/3 KM/1? cult ... which still isn't a guaranteed win for KM (but it's very close)
During N2, I wanted to lynch either SPACKlick or Frogman today, but things have gone weird and that doesn't seem like such a good idea anymore. I don't think I can see public DK as a scum thing, and I kinda want to lynch SPACKlick eventually, but ideally after cult is found. Regardless, weiyaoli and I have agreed to not push the matter further for today.
Anyway. Between ElectricHaze and Freezeblade, I'll definitely vote for FB if nothing else happens. After some review, EH is reading like normal to me. I always thought he was a little scummy (tone/wording/something) when he was town, and that's all I'm seeing here. Especially this:
ConMan wrote:I think he was genuinely shocked when Nebu started outing the scum group because he didn't get his new role until later on
Agreed. Here's my interpretation of events:
Nebuduck is scum and manages to attract attention on D1Some
roles are swapped, probably including Nebuduck who went scum->scum
ElectricHaze was not in the initial roleswap
Nebuduck outs his previous scumbuddies
ElectricHaze denies the connection since he thinks he is still scum
ElectricHaze gets swapped
ElectricHaze continues to deny having been D1 scum because that puts a huge target on his head
I believe that this is the/one of the best strategies for both scum and
town, which makes it kind of dumb to call it a scummy move. Further, we know that EH almost certainly changed roles - he claimed Dog on D2, which Minestrone was revealed to be when lynched that day. Given the scum ratios left, it's 3x more likely that EH would be KG than MM, and I would have expected to see someone
try to defend him by now, or shift the topic. No one has. Everyone just says "Well, I'd be okay with lynching EH." The only way that'd fit is if he's the last surviving MM member, which would mean half of MM didn't change alignment. Granted, I don't know how Dr Ug handled role swaps, but my gut says he wouldn't let a scum group go practically unchanged.
tl;dr: I think EH is low hanging fruit for scum.