Here’s an updated list of player reads. I tried to focus on content posted since my previous list on Sept 8.
ajh – Since my previous analysis post he has made one short post with reads on about half the players. And his reads are almost worthless because he gives no analysis or reasons. His read on me:
ajh wrote:bessie: on a team with Vytron?
ajh, have you even been following this game? There has been a great deal of discussion pertaining to this very question. My feeling on ajh is that even if he’s town, he may be a problem later in the game because there won’t be enough quality content to distinguish him from scum.
Carlington – Cult leader, killed by mafia, SK, or vigilante, or killed by his target (does this kind of role fit the current description of vanilla?), or killed by trying to recruit someone unrecruitable (ruled out by mod description of role?). He had limited reads and interaction with other players. Analyzing his content for possible cult recruits:
1. bessie, was seen as townie by many players on D1 including Carlington.
2. Vytron, trusted by Carlington, but I think Vytron’s playstyle (draws attention to himself) makes him an unlikely recruit choice.
3. Djehutynakht, Carlington was against lynching him.
4. lynx, Carlington pushed the lynch on him.
So this list tells me nothing because I know it wasn't me, but I thought I'd throw it out there.
dimochka – Some things that stand out to me from D1:
dimochka wrote:I think our focus on DJ/lynx has been way too strong without any concrete evidence.
dimochka makes this statement, but doesn't offer any alternatives except moody and Carlington. Then he says this in the same post that he is willing to lynch "any of you three in any order whatsoever" and I'm not exactly sure who he means. Has your opinion changed on lynx and DJ now that we know the game isn’t vanilla?
Djehutynakht – My top pick for mafia. Some reasons:
His misdirection about the reasons I find him suspicious covered here: viewtopic.php?f=53&t=112543#p3851174
This remark (italics are DJ's):
Djehutynakht wrote:I don't see how my attitude towards Vytron was different from anyone else's behavior at the start of the game. I said I was "looking at" (I didn't use the word suspicious, at least not until later) Vytron out of pure instinct based on past games with him. Because he is Vytron Which, honestly, is literally what everyone does on their first post D1. They poke fingers at random people. They make random votes. That's basically what I did.
He's trying to brush off suspicious content because it’s what everyone
does. Not true, everyone
doesn’t do this. I already stated in this thread that I don’t like the random voting stage and I don’t do it, in part because I admit that I can be somewhat clueless in trying to figure out which votes were serious later.
Djehutynakht wrote:Since so many people saw me as "definitely" scum (and still do, with the whole "eh, we'll lynch him tomorrow guys" rhetoric) it's way more acceptable for scum to flock to me as a target, because tomorrow the universal story would be "whoops. Well, we all thought he was scum. Nothing scummy about voting for him, right?".
So if someone is voting for you they’re scum?
Misrepresenting an earlier post of mine, which I covered here: viewtopic.php?f=53&t=112543#p3857243
Dr Ug – Reading his posts as confirmed town. I agreed with a lot of his content in this game so I will note that his primary suspects Vytron, lynx, DJ. Possible suspects moody, dimochka, ajh.
ElectricHaze – All of his D1 content focused on SPACKlick. Very little D2 content, but is out of town for the weekend. He has good content, but most of it has been focused on one player. Looking forward to some quality content from him next week.
frogman – I hope he comes back because this is my favorite quote in this game:
frogman wrote:I hope this doesn't RUIN MATH
lynx – He hasn’t made a post with game content since Sept 4. I really don’t like this though:
lynx wrote:So who was lynched? Me?
Sorry all, had no internet at home or work for the majority of the week.
Because lynx is an experienced player and mod, it seems strange to me that he would post in thread at night, especially since two posts before this is the post where the mod called night. And why the question? If he’s suspected he was dead he should know not to post in thread.
moody7277 – Now that we know there are other anti-town factions, I’m suspicious of moody’s use of “mafia” here:
moody7277 wrote:"Role: vanilla ice cream
You vanilla town. What did you expect?
You win when mafia have been eliminated"
This makes me suspect he didn’t get any town PM (vanilla or power town). I actually like moody’s D2 content so far. I am trying to resolve this contradiction in my mind.
Nebuduck – Pretty neutral in his content except for his questioning of ElectricHaze on D1. All D2 content so far has focused on the cult.
nolemonplease – Only made one post since my last analysis of them. The post was a little short and contained little analysis, but they did take a strong stand on who they believed was town. Hasn’t had time to catch up yet.
SPACKlick – Some things that stand out to me.
SPACKlick wrote:I think you're misreading me here Djehutynakht, I was saying IF your were VT or a role that had the same/similar role PM, you would have breadcrumbed or outright expressed the information that the suspicion of you is based on in the role PM. There's no cost to doing it, the information is essentially out there, it says nothing directly about your role other than letting town see you're likely town. You still don't know what you don't know and that's enough for me. I will say I've backed of from 100% as people have shown that "vanilla" games round here are/may be less vanilla than my experience elsewhere. That said I still think your response hasn't been townie.
I agree with your read on Djehutynakht, but I in all fairness I think that I need to defend DJ’s decision not to breadcrumb. I never do it myself because I can never think of anything subtle or clever, and I almost never spot breadcrumbs. There was also the question as to how much information about our role PMs the mod would allow us to reveal (since answered). But other than those two points I agree with you.
SPACKlick’s analysis of Carlington is what convinced me to leave my vote on Carlington. Here's the part that stands out to me the most:
SPACKlick wrote:Carlington, I don't like the defensive reaction and quick removal of a vote from DJ when Bessie joined. If DJ flips scum, I'll be eyeing Carlington. He also called himself scummy for using other peoples votes to scumhunt. And he wrote this "If I were
a cop the mod, I would..."
Why? I spent ten minutes looking at this and can't work out why he would possibly post it. This is what started the spiral into an accusation. The he fished for Vytron or Bessie to claim PR. Also his really long detailed post where he votes to lynx (including the addendum) actually says very little and in it he says "let's not lynch DJ because reasons we should lynch lynx for the reasons I just said we shouldn't lynch DJ" which is really suspect. And on which he doesn't place a vote until the lynx swing gets some traction. I'm also bothered by his repeated claiming that people are "Confirmed Town".
I will want to return to this read on Carlington later in the game when we are trying to figure out the recruit. SPACKlick’s list of cult gameplay questions for RoadieRich makes me think he’s not cult. If he was culted he could have asked those questions by PM.
Vytron – Vytron, I’m really not following your reasons for voting SPACKlick. But I’m not seeing you as scummy, just as someone I don’t agree with.
weiyaoli – I like what he has posted so far. I don’t have a read on him yet because he hasn’t had any interactions with other players.
weiyaoli wrote:I think behaviourally Nebu is a bit strange so far, but he does claim VT here.
I’ve never played a game with Nebuduck. Do you mean scummy strange, or strange for Nebuduck?