Vanillafia D3 - Ice Lollies for all: Town win!

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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby SPACKlick » Wed Sep 09, 2015 6:11 pm UTC

Weiyaoli two things for your read through,

1) This song
2) Your signature.

Good luck.

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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby SPACKlick » Wed Sep 09, 2015 8:19 pm UTC

Right, having eaten and thought about it, I'm staking that Moody isn't scum.

I don't particularly mind which of DJ, lynx and Carlington we lynch but I currently prefer Carlington as the more seditious entry on my list. DJ and Lynx could be Power roles (not likely) or independents or possibly scum but Carlington has scumtells over and above the PM nonsense.

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Dr Ug
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Dr Ug » Wed Sep 09, 2015 11:18 pm UTC

SPACKlick wrote:Right, having eaten and thought about it, I'm staking that Moody isn't scum.

I don't particularly mind which of DJ, lynx and Carlington we lynch but I currently prefer Carlington as the more seditious entry on my list. DJ and Lynx could be Power roles (not likely) or independents or possibly scum but Carlington has scumtells over and above the PM nonsense.

Why are you sure Moody isn't scum? Of anyone, the lack of modkill (RR posted after it happened) after quoting the vanilla town PM, has confirmed that he is not VT. This is the same reason why are suspicious of DJ. What makes him different in your mind?
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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby SPACKlick » Thu Sep 10, 2015 9:06 am UTC

OK, I don't see the point in being beat around the bushy any more

Moody didn't quote the VT PM, Moody has put several things in that are not in the VT PM. What moody did do was make up what he thought it would be. From what's available in thread and his own PM. So by subtracting what's available in thread we get what's in his PM. From this and his previous posting I think Moody is town. What I can't work out is why on earth he posted it. If we have a doctor, moody just made their lives a bit harder.

DJ missed out on the basic je ne sais quoi of what's in town PM's. Then reacted very badly. Similar to Lynx. Behaviour around lack of knowledge is how to distinguish non-vanilla town and non-town amongst the non-VT.

Dimochka's last post is pinging me for some reason. I can't work out why so I'll just ask. Dimochka, can you say why you think ajh and nebu are town/leaning town respectively?

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Nebuduck » Thu Sep 10, 2015 9:32 am UTC

Dr Ug wrote:Of anyone, the lack of modkill (RR posted after it happened) after quoting the vanilla town PM


Of course, this suggests Dr Ug also didn't get the VT PM, since it's clear that moody's PM differs from the VT PM (i.e. he didn't actually quote it). This doesn't imply Dr Ug is scum (as already stated a number of times), although the fact that he would accuse someone else of being scum for not getting VT PM given that he didn't get it himself is a little scummy...

Okay, you know what, sod it. I don't like the PM discussion, but I think the cat is now out of the bag. Something we're missing is a list of the people who we are fairly sure didn't get the VT PM. I'm putting that together here. If anyone has any disagreements with the list, feel free to post corrections. I'll put reasoning in where I can remember it, otherwise it's based on what I think I know (the most dangerous type of knowledge!).

People with non-VT-PM
DJ (unaware of the question referenced by Vytron in his role pm.)
lynx (I can't remember exact reasoning, and am too lazy to go find out. Certainly didn't want to chat about role PMs though)
moody ('quoted' role PM. Clearly not a quote, and clearly not modkilled, so we're guessing he doesn't have VT PM)
Dr Ug (Believed Moody's quoting of VT PM was spot-on accurate. Moody's quoting was not accurate.)

I have a feeling I've missed a couple - anyone who knows, please enlighten me.

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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby SPACKlick » Thu Sep 10, 2015 9:41 am UTC

I'd add yourself, Neb, to the list of no evidence either way. You have avoided the topic judiciously with long absences and hence I have no read on you. Actually it's worse than that I have a swinging read on you, you go from town to scum and back over and over again.

I'd say D1 Lynch Carlington
D2 lynch lynx/DJ
D3 lynch lynx/dj
D4 lynch whichever of Nebu/Haze/Dimchoka stands out by then.

If none of them are scum, have vytron lynch himself on principle.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Nebuduck » Thu Sep 10, 2015 9:58 am UTC

SPACKlick wrote:I'd add yourself, Neb, to the list of no evidence either way. You have avoided the topic judiciously with long absences and hence I have no read on you. Actually it's worse than that I have a swinging read on you, you go from town to scum and back over and over again.

Most people have no evidence either way. I'm not sure that there's any way that one could now provide evidence either way, except for explicitly stating they didn't get a VT PM (which is pretty much what moody did). My list was a list of people I was confident DIDN'T have the VT PM, not people for whom there was no evidence.

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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby SPACKlick » Thu Sep 10, 2015 10:00 am UTC

I'd say most people have breadcrumbed or been more explicit than that one way or the other.

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weiyaoli
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby weiyaoli » Thu Sep 10, 2015 11:13 am UTC

The read through (with musical accompaniment suggested by SPACKlick):

In the form of quick thoughts on whatever seems relevant to me to comment on.

p1:
Spoiler:
Super weak vote from Vytron (which is fine in itself because it's the first post) but don't like the self concious justification - "it's as weak as it gets", "probably moving on"

Relevant maths from SPACKlick, but it's mostly just noise in context of the thread so far - it encourages a discussion of mechanics/maths instead of analysis.

Interesting number of scum suggested by lynx, think it fits well with expecting to need around 3 or so mislynches before MYLO/LYLO. Also interesting SPACKlick later suggests 2/3 scum. Not gonna go too much into this, but I think expecting to have the wiggle room of more than 3 mislynches is a bit suspicious!

Why did Vytron vote with another clarification that sounds like he will probably move off to another target?

I think breadcrumbing in confirmation posts are a bit dodgy since it's before the game has officially started, but since it already happened - why did bessie immediately point out that they thought dj did not receive the same role PM as vytron? Coming back to this thought later.

Carlington is self concious in his response to bessie. Over explains his accused of jumpiness - and goes on to explain why staying on would be scummy as well.

Liking lynx so far.

p2:
Spoiler:
Why does SPACKlick jump to the conclusion of (scum) instead of (PR)? It's why I thought bessie was odd drawing attention to it in the first place, putting possible attention onto PRs who might react to bessie's comment about role PMs, even if dj is actually scum.

Liking Vytron's reaction here.

I agree with some of dimochka's reads, but their reasoning for a few are odd - e.g. nolelemons, why speculate on whether someone is VT?

I like bessie's response once more information came up that they might not have thought about.

Don't like vytron's comment about lynx, but SPACKlick's response is worse.

Vytron seems to assume scum wouldn't either have a very similar role PM to VTs or were not provided with VT role PMs. Given the discussion in the thread at this point, I feel even if they weren't scum would have asked for a copy of the VT role PM.


Hate to stop 2 pages into the 5, but have no time, so will leave what I've written already here:

thoughts so far:
lynx = pretty towny
vytron = ??? behaviour wise, but I'm pretty sure he's town from this role thing
Carlington = slightly scummy
SPACKlick = slightly scummy behaviourally so far, will have to look again at this whole role thing again (especially the timings of certain events) to work out something.
And you thought I was crazy...

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Dr Ug
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Dr Ug » Thu Sep 10, 2015 12:26 pm UTC

I will claim that I did get the VT role PM, unlike others who have been accused of not having it.
moody7277 wrote:"Role: vanilla ice cream
You vanilla town. What did you expect?
You win when mafia have been eliminated"
Well, the bit about vanilla icecream was made up, and sure one word his second line has an added word (which is the only part of the original one), and the third line is added, but once again, definitely grounds for a modkill if I was mod. I therefore do think that moody is not vanilla town, as if he was he should have been modkilled (IMO).
SPACKlick wrote:Dimochka's last post is pinging me for some reason. I can't work out why so I'll just ask. Dimochka, can you say why you think ajh and nebu are town/leaning town respectively?
I've been trying to pin down exactly what I find scummy about Dim too, and can't put my finger on it. It's just a vibe I'm getting.
dimochka wrote:I'd like to hear what makes me scummy. Meanwhile working on my post (may take a few hours since I'm also working).
dimochka wrote:I want to hear Dr Ug's thoughts on why I'm scummy because I'm pretty sure my opinions have been pretty firm. I think our focus on DJ/lynx has been way too strong without any concrete evidence. Yes, I don't think they're town, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be looking at other people.

These posts in particular seem to me a bit "why would you say I'm scum, I've elaborately crafted my behaviour until now to not seem like scum". Or maybe I'm seeing things.
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Dr Ug » Thu Sep 10, 2015 12:28 pm UTC

frogman walks right up to madge and king hits her. She falls down, head striking the hard concrete and starts to bleed from her ears.

madge is dead. She was Michelle, previously serial killer, member of Chow's Cult, scum.
Where did my old signature go? :(

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Dr Ug » Thu Sep 10, 2015 12:29 pm UTC

Um... move along here, nothing to see (sorry wrong thread).
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby ElectricHaze » Thu Sep 10, 2015 12:29 pm UTC

good to know for the other game :P
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Vytron » Thu Sep 10, 2015 12:56 pm UTC

Well, that was very impressive considering Madge isn't playing here!

SPACKlick wrote:If none of them are scum, have vytron lynch himself on principle.


Indeed, it'd be as if I lost twenty dollars and my self respect for town in my confirmation post...

weiyaoli's analysis looks pretty bad, given what I know, as town (unless Spack is scum, anyway). So my big problem here is we got way too many good lynch candidates, but moody still seems like the worst offender to me (tries to make up Role PM, would have been modkilled if he did have the VT PM...)

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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby SPACKlick » Thu Sep 10, 2015 2:07 pm UTC

Dr Ug wrote:I will claim that I did get the VT role PM, unlike others who have been accused of not having it.
moody7277 wrote:"Role: vanilla ice cream
You vanilla town. What did you expect?
You win when mafia have been eliminated"
Well, the bit about vanilla icecream was made up, and sure one word his second line has an added word (which is the only part of the original one), and the third line is added, but once again, definitely grounds for a modkill if I was mod. I therefore do think that moody is not vanilla town, as if he was he should have been modkilled (IMO).

Bloody hell you're walking a modkill tightrope there Dr Ug And "one word his second line has an added word" makes basically no sense. That said you've got yourself back in my good graces somewhat with this post and your lean on Dimochka. I have another theory on the two posts you pointed to that I'll keep to myself for now. Definitely a slight scum vibe to Dimochka.

Vytron wrote:weiyaoli's analysis looks pretty bad, given what I know, as town (unless Spack is scum, anyway). So my big problem here is we got way too many good lynch candidates, but moody still seems like the worst offender to me (tries to make up Role PM, would have been modkilled if he did have the VT PM...)

Wine but, that move looks neutral town/scum to me. Actually slight town lean. It lets VT's know what non VT's can work out. And it shows a thing that VT's didn't know. I don't see moody as scum. I'd be willing to be convinced but DJ, Lynx and Carlington all look like better starting points to me.

Also we've discussed dimochka, bessie, Carlington, Djehutynakht, Dr Ug, lynx, moody7277, Nebuduck, Vytron and I a fair bit (not loads for all of them). And had small discussion over the limited content from ajh, Weiyaoli and ElectricHaze.

I've not seen many people commenting on Frogman and Nolemon and while I think both are probably town I'd like to see more from Frogman on things other than lynx and nolemon on Moody and Weiyaoli reads.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby bessie » Thu Sep 10, 2015 4:00 pm UTC

Sorry for my absence. Monday was a holiday in the US, and 4 day work week really means 4 days to do 5 days worth of work.

I tried to throw together some quick observations since my last post but there has been quite a bit of important content, so I think I will need to do a more careful read and return to this tonight.

I do want to say that I meant to unvote in my previous post but forgot. I think this can be inferred from the wording in my section on moody (“As of the beginning of this post, I never moved my vote back on DJ…”). Given the recent accusations, I think I will leave my vote on Carlington until I have time to reread. I don’t think the hammer will fall in the next 12 hours.

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RoadieRich
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby RoadieRich » Thu Sep 10, 2015 4:03 pm UTC

A bolt of lightning descends from above, then everything goes dark.

Dr Ug has been modkilled for breaking rule 5, as clarified in thread.
RoadieRich wrote:
SPACKlick wrote:Also note, we cannot directly quote our role PM and I'd be uncomfortable with things like "There are n words in it and y letters" without explicit mod permission.

Doing so will result in an immediate modkill, and, if by a non-scum-aligned player, will count as that day's lynch.


It is now night. Deadline for all night actions is Noon EDT, Monday 14th.
73, de KE8BSL loc EN26.

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Re: Vanillafia N1 - Honey Jalapeño Pickle

Postby Dr Ug » Thu Sep 10, 2015 8:56 pm UTC

wtf? where exactly?
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Re: Vanillafia N1 - Honey Jalapeño Pickle

Postby lynx » Mon Sep 14, 2015 12:31 pm UTC

So who was lynched? Me?

Sorry all, had no internet at home or work for the majority of the week.

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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby SPACKlick » Mon Sep 14, 2015 12:36 pm UTC

RoadieRich wrote:Dr Ug has been modkilled for breaking rule 5, as clarified in thread.
RoadieRich wrote:
SPACKlick wrote:Also note, we cannot directly quote our role PM and I'd be uncomfortable with things like "There are n words in it and y letters" without explicit mod permission.

Doing so will result in an immediate modkill, and, if by a non-scum-aligned player, will count as that day's lynch.


Dr Ug's modkill ended the day and appears to have counted as the day's lynch

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Re: Vanillafia N1 - Honey Jalapeño Pickle

Postby lynx » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:15 am UTC

For what?

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RoadieRich
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby RoadieRich » Tue Sep 15, 2015 1:30 pm UTC

The Dawn breaks, and the cleaner sets about mopping up the spill.

The icecreams slowly wipe the sleep from their eyes, and take a look around.

Cautiously, they approach the charred remains of Dr Ug, who is still smoking slightly.


Dr UG was Vanilla Town.

Then someone notices the sprinkles drawer, which now lies empty.

Carlington has been killed. He was Chocolate Chips, Cult Leader.

For those wondering, Dr Ug was modkilled for this post:
Dr Ug wrote:I will claim that I did get the VT role PM, unlike others who have been accused of not having it.
moody7277 wrote:"Role: vanilla ice cream
You vanilla town. What did you expect?
You win when mafia have been eliminated"
Well, the bit about vanilla icecream was made up, and sure one word his second line has an added word (which is the only part of the original one), and the third line is added, but once again, definitely grounds for a modkill if I was mod. I therefore do think that moody is not vanilla town, as if he was he should have been modkilled (IMO).


I had to make a call, and unfortunately, I had to rule that it fell foul of the warning I posted in thread:
RoadieRich wrote:
SPACKlick wrote:Also note, we cannot directly quote our role PM and I'd be uncomfortable with things like "There are n words in it and y letters" without explicit mod permission.

Doing so will result in an immediate modkill, and, if by a non-scum-aligned player, will count as that day's lynch.


It is now Day 2. 13 Players, 7 to lynch.
73, de KE8BSL loc EN26.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Carlington » Tue Sep 15, 2015 1:59 pm UTC

DANGIT.
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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby SPACKlick » Tue Sep 15, 2015 2:01 pm UTC

Well that was an unfortunate end to the day. I now see that my suspicion on Carlington was somewhat founded. Since we had a night does this mean we have another cult member to worry about? Do we suspect inherited recruiting?

Vote Lynx

Because cointoss between Lynx and DJ came up tails.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby ElectricHaze » Tue Sep 15, 2015 3:59 pm UTC

Cult is certainly not something I was expecting in a vanilla game...

That said I think an inherited recruit would be impossible to deal with considering there was only one NK. I would expect the standard cult leader role in use here, as a custom role would make this game certainly not vanilla. As it is it feels decidedly more neapolitan than vanilla, I was expecting only VT/VM with maybe something like cop doc godfather and a vig at the most. Now it appears all possible power roles are on the table.
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby SPACKlick » Tue Sep 15, 2015 4:09 pm UTC

E -Haze, who says there's only one NK. With more !TownPR on the table we open up the odds of roleblockers, Doctors, Jailkeepers, Rolestoppers, Hookers etc.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby ElectricHaze » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:08 pm UTC

true, and I guess with the non VT pm suspicions floating around there is a higher than normal chance of those being successful on day1. I still think inheritable recruit is unlikely in this game because at least cult leader with a recruit that dies with them is a kinda standard role, while inheritable recruit is much more non-standard.
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Nebuduck » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:29 pm UTC

Well, first off, apologies - I feel a bit responsible for Dr Ug's role PM info -> modkill, since I accused him of not knowing the vanilla PM.

Anyway, was very much not expecting a cult. I guess SPACKlick's intuition was pretty good, though.

Would agree that there's a good chance of more than one NK, but I'm not surprised we only saw one last night. If I were an SK/Vig/etc., I'd be inclined to keep the fact that my role existed a secret as long as people thought there may be mostly vanilla roles. I'd expect more night actions to be used N2, now we know that pretty much any role could exist.

I think the only additional info we have at this point is that there's a cult, probably with 1 member. My guess would be that with the cult leader dead, there'll be no more recruits (in which case we don't really need to worry too much about it). But we maybe shouldn't take that for granted.

Any thoughts? Should we try to hunt down potential cult recruits? Or should we just go ahead and lynch someone who was suspicious from D1?

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby SPACKlick » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:35 pm UTC

Nebuduck wrote:Any thoughts? Should we try to hunt down potential cult recruits? Or should we just go ahead and lynch someone who was suspicious from D1?

W.R.T. Cult there are two options 1) The cult now cannot recruit therefore the "cultist" is a lone agent who's best bet is to avoid being NK'd by taking out scum and getting to endgame. There'll be no tells other than a desire for self survival. 2) The cult can still recruit, we're boned because there's no way of stopping the cult unless one is nk'd every time we fail to lynch. Therefore assume 1).

In case of 1) Lynch previously dodgy suspects. I chose Lynx but I have no strong preferences in either direction between him and DJ. I want to hear further from Dimochka to try and exculpate themselves. and to quote me from yesterday
SPACKlick wrote:I've not seen many people commenting on Frogman and Nolemon and while I think both are probably town I'd like to see more from Frogman on things other than lynx and nolemon on Moody and Weiyaoli reads.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Nebuduck » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:55 pm UTC

SPACKlick wrote:There'll be no tells other than a desire for self survival.


We can make some informed guesses. For example, I'm guessing that DJ and lynx were probably not recruited - it'd be ridiculous to recruit someone who was already attracting lots of votes. In fact, my guess would be that someone who was previously considered solid town would be a likely candidate for recruitment. So essentially, one person we were previously certain was VT now probably isn't. But I still think we probably don't need to worry about it - as SPACKlick says, they probably no longer can recruit, so they're pretty impotent.

Another thought that just popped into my mind - what sort of roles do we think might have lead to the NK'ing of Carlington? I think it's unlikely that he'd be the mafia target[1], so maybe some other roles with NK? Or some sort of kill-redirect role?

[1] - He was seeming likely to be lynched in the near future. Assuming the mafia, like everyone else, didn't expect cult or second mafia, it doesn't make sense for them to NK him.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby ElectricHaze » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:09 pm UTC

Nebuduck wrote:[1] - He was seeming likely to be lynched in the near future. Assuming the mafia, like everyone else, didn't expect cult or second mafia, it doesn't make sense for them to NK him.


I'm inclined to agree. My first impulse is to say vig, second is SK that may want to look like a vig later on.
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Djehutynakht » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:14 pm UTC

Well, I wasn't certainly expecting a cult.

Look's like this game's going to be a bit of a... *sunglasses* Rocky Road.
If I must be lynched, at least don't let it be on account of this pun. I couldn't help myself.

Anyways, I will confirm that, to my knowledge, I was not a cult recruit last night.

I agree that it's unlikely that the recruiting role is inherited. Which, in such an event, the sole cult member (assuming that one was able to be recruited) is essentially a survivor, which makes them relatively harmless. However, there's always the chance... in which case cult is a very dangerous entity. I'd say we should keep a sharp lookout for any signs of a recruit, but honestly there's only so much we can do, and general scumhunting should proceed as normal.

SPACKlick wrote:Hookers etc.


I have to admit, I've never seen that one...

Nebuduck wrote:I guess SPACKlick's intuition was pretty good, though.


I'm leaning the opposite on this, actually. Well, maybe less his intuition than his reasoning. He was pretty confident in his breakdown of the game/factions yesterday, with which Carlington's reveal just went immediately down the drain. I can't really blame him for this too much, though, because I think pretty much nobody expected a cult (I should go back and look at that), although SPACKlick was a bit more outspoken and analytical than anyone else.

I'm not sure what a scum motive for that would be, though.

Need to go look at D1 in-depth, methinks.

_____________________

As for who killed Carlington, I'm not entirely sure. I wouldn't put it past a wiley Mafia. I've seen Mafia teams do that sort of things to throw the town wildly off course. I'm definitely more open to the idea of SKs, Vig's and Roleblockers existing now, but I wouldn't discount the Mafia screwing with us for some unforeseen reason.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby dimochka » Tue Sep 15, 2015 9:05 pm UTC

Sorry I was MIA and I will try to do a deeper analysis either in 3 hours at the airport or certainly tomorrow when I land back home. For now what I would suggest is looking into reasons why mafia would want carlington dead to create wine (mafia would assume that he's town... I don't think anyone expected cult).

I know I haven't answered a few questions. I promise to get to them in under 24 hours if not before I fly out.
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Vytron
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Vytron » Wed Sep 16, 2015 1:43 am UTC

Haha! This is the least Vanilla game advertized as Vanilla I've ever seen! Given it's borderline bastard to have a cult game and not mention "win conditions might change" in the sign ups.

Vote: SPACKlick

I refuse to believe he flipped a coin to decide who to vote on. It's too late for random voting. It's suspicious that he suspects two people exactly the same even though, if Spack was town, this would be subjective, and subjective things are never exact.

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bessie
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby bessie » Wed Sep 16, 2015 2:42 am UTC

I’ve never played a game with cult before. What would a typical cult win condition be? Survive to end and win with town or mafia? Or have only cult remaining at the end?

Nebuduck wrote:Any thoughts? Should we try to hunt down potential cult recruits? Or should we just go ahead and lynch someone who was suspicious from D1?

I think we should go with someone who was suspicious on D1, because it will be difficult to tell at this time who the cult recruit is. But I think we may need to eventually hunt down this person, if we need to eliminate all anti-town factions.

Nebuduck wrote:In fact, my guess would be that someone who was previously considered solid town would be a likely candidate for recruitment. So essentially, one person we were previously certain was VT now probably isn't.

That was my first thought too, but why wouldn’t cult try to recruit a mafia member? I think it would be advantageous to cult to have access to mafia chat and the NK. Or a power town/independent role? (Or does power town lose their power if recruited? Is mafia non recruitable? I just thought of this after I wrote out the rest of this post)

Nebuduck wrote:Another thought that just popped into my mind - what sort of roles do we think might have lead to the NK'ing of Carlington? I think it's unlikely that he'd be the mafia target[1], so maybe some other roles with NK? Or some sort of kill-redirect role?

[1] - He was seeming likely to be lynched in the near future. Assuming the mafia, like everyone else, didn't expect cult or second mafia, it doesn't make sense for them to NK him.

Yes but Carlington did softclaim a non-vanilla town role.
Carlington wrote:Vytron, I have an answer for you, but I don't think it would help town to state it publicly.

Vytron wrote:Indeed. It's the same reason DJ would refuse to claim. I do think town has a bit of an edge after all. Unless lynx flips town...

Maybe mafia thought they were getting rid of a power town role early in the game.

Vytron, I don’t agree with your reason for voting for SPACKlick. Do you have any other reasons for suspecting him non town?

My Day 1 analysis was cut short by nightfall, so I’ll try to get back to that tonight or tomorrow.

Vote: lynx

Reasons:
lynx wrote: All that matters at the end of the day is one's win condition.

As I was typing up this post, I realized why this had been bothering me. I don't believe lynx and I have the same win condition.

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Vytron
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Vytron » Wed Sep 16, 2015 3:01 am UTC

It's cult member alive at the end allows you to win, so Carlington could still win if the recruit went on.

And, um, I don't know, it's possible if the recruit went on that they recruited Spack.

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weiyaoli
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby weiyaoli » Wed Sep 16, 2015 9:26 am UTC

Still writing up a catch-up post of D1. Just wanted to get down some quick reactions to what happened N1 first:

It's tough to read into Carlington flipping scum without knowing more about the setup, since his interactions D1 aren't very useful now. Even if people attacked him for being suspicious, scum would have presumably been happy to do so as well. Given there was a cult, I'd be very surprised if there isn't a vig of some kind. Alternatively, the other possibility is that there was only the cult as scum in this game, though in that case I'd expect the cult to start with a leader plus 1/2 members. Or, any potential vig held their shot N1, and instead the scum team (I'd now expect 1/2) killed Carlington for not being vanilla.
And you thought I was crazy...

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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby SPACKlick » Wed Sep 16, 2015 2:02 pm UTC

Thinking on it more I'm actually more miffed there is a cult in a vanilla game. If Carlington hadn't been NK'd then we'd have not known this was going on and never been looking for it assuming everything was pretty generic.

On reminding myself how cults generally work

Roadie can you confirm what of the following you will? Or rule it out entirely. Or explicitly tell us it's possible.
- Only Cult Leader has recruiting powers
- When recruited players generally lose role identities, does this include powers?
- When recruited players generally lose role identities, does this include any night or day chats they may be in?
- Is the cult win condition Control half the player base?
- Can Town win with cult still alive?
- Is cult suicide to be enabled?
- Were/are the cult able to recruit mafia? Sk's? Vigs? To control a kill.
- Are there any other alignment changing roles in game (including but not limited to [Deprogrammer, Inquisitor, Judas, Mentor, Psychiatrist, Saul/Paul, Vampire, Zombie]?
- Can you define Vanilla Mafia for me.


Nebuduck wrote:Would agree that there's a good chance of more than one NK, but I'm not surprised we only saw one last night. If I were an SK/Vig/etc., I'd be inclined to keep the fact that my role existed a secret as long as people thought there may be mostly vanilla roles. I'd expect more night actions to be used N2, now we know that pretty much any role could exist.

I'm watching you for this briefly, I can't work out if it means it's more likely you have an NK or not. Hilighting for others attention.

Nebuduck wrote:Another thought that just popped into my mind - what sort of roles do we think might have lead to the NK'ing of Carlington? I think it's unlikely that he'd be the mafia target[1], so maybe some other roles with NK? Or some sort of kill-redirect role?

Redirect is possible. I can't see mafia killing someone with some suspicion on them. An SK wanting to take out mafia with another NK may have targeted him.

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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby SPACKlick » Wed Sep 16, 2015 2:15 pm UTC

Didn't mean to hit post when I did

Djehutynakht wrote:Look's like this game's going to be a bit of a... *sunglasses* Rocky Road.
If I must be lynched, at least don't let it be on account of this pun. I couldn't help myself.

Beautiful!

Djehutynakht wrote:As for who killed Carlington, I'm not entirely sure. I wouldn't put it past a wiley Mafia. I've seen Mafia teams do that sort of things to throw the town wildly off course. I'm definitely more open to the idea of SKs, Vig's and Roleblockers existing now, but I wouldn't discount the Mafia screwing with us for some unforeseen reason.
I strongly doubt that. Wiley mafia would have known Carlington wasn't mafia. So, what, they thought he was SK? or PR?

Vytron wrote:I refuse to believe he flipped a coin to decide who to vote on. It's too late for random voting. It's suspicious that he suspects two people exactly the same even though, if Spack was town, this would be subjective, and subjective things are never exact.
Your maths is lacking again vytron. The two suspicions are not exactly the same but their confidence levels are imprecise. Therefore there is significant overlap with a lack of resolution to distinguish. Besides which the point in the vote was to say. I still think like I did yesterday that the three people I suspected are still my suspects and one of them being dead doesn't change that. I could be convinced in either direction today.

bessie wrote:That was my first thought too, but why wouldn’t cult try to recruit a mafia member? I think it would be advantageous to cult to have access to mafia chat and the NK. Or a power town/independent role? (Or does power town lose their power if recruited? Is mafia non recruitable? I just thought of this after I wrote out the rest of this post)

Most cult's I've played with the cult recruiter dies if they try to recruit mafia. It's about the only balancing factor.

Vytron wrote:It's cult member alive at the end allows you to win, so Carlington could still win if the recruit went on.

Not in any cult I've ever played with

And, um, I don't know, it's possible if the recruit went on that they recruited Spack.

You're suspicious of me because it's possible that the recruit that carlington recruited last night recruited me? That's pure bullshit.

Lynx, DJ Why should we give you guys one more night of life?

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Vytron
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Vytron » Wed Sep 16, 2015 3:11 pm UTC

SPACKlick wrote: I could be convinced in either direction today.


Then you shouldn't have voted any of them, two FoSes on them would he sufficed. You can wait till you have made a decision, and changing your vote later because now you have a reason to vote someone, instead of a coin flip, is worse.

You don't sound like yesterday, so I still think you were culted. Specially after the long questions post where you obsess about it.


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