Vanillafia D3 - Ice Lollies for all: Town win!

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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby SPACKlick » Wed Sep 16, 2015 3:36 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:Then you shouldn't have voted any of them, two FoSes on them would he sufficed. You can wait till you have made a decision, and changing your vote later because now you have a reason to vote someone, instead of a coin flip, is worse.

You obviously use FOS differently than I then. FOS is a level below voting. I'm not pointing a finger or suspicicion I've got the noose and the tree ready and will go after both. It's not that I lack a reason to vote either it's that there's sufficient reason to vote both and no reason to suspect voting either will be significantly worse than voting the other. Please note this comment yesterday
SPACKlick wrote:I'd say D1 Lynch Carlington
D2 lynch lynx/DJ
D3 lynch lynx/dj

I'm doing exactly what I intended to do Voting Lynx or DJ and hilighting that both are still scummy as sin.

You don't sound like yesterday, so I still think you were culted. Specially after the long questions post where you obsess about it.

Should we have enough players towards game's end I'll gladly fall on my sword if needs be to avoid detracting from cult hunting. Till then I know I'm not cult and I know there's no way to convince you either way. Can we lynch lynx or DJ and get on with it yet? Or are you now not so sure voting people who reacted like they did to not being vanilla aren't on Town's team?

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby moody7277 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 3:44 pm UTC

Count me in on the "cult doesn't sound vanilla" bandwagon. My understanding was that cult had to have the majority to win. We can hope that this was a vanilla cult and that Carlington's death means that there is at most one lonely cultist out there not able to do anything.

Townie
Vytron- (shenanigans aside, this looks certain)
bessie- (Carlingtons flip versus his interactions with her seem to confirm Vytron's opinion of her)
dim- was pretty firm on the SK!DJ hypothesis for his non-VTness. Also willing to look beyond gambitted bunch for scum
SPACK- based on his DJ comments, seemed to deduce what the gambit was about rather than know it right off. Other content and analysis look pretty town to me.
frogman- some analysis, most suspicious of lynx in the gambitted bunch. moderately townie
Nebuduck- some discussion of the gambit. accused of buddying SPACK. leaning town
ElectricHaze- a few fluffy posts to start. suspicious of SPACK for a while, but seems to have let off. not a real firm town read, but I don't think he's scummy
weiyaoli- sub-in. not much data on him yet
ajh- very quiet as usual. At this point it starts to get annoying, but he isn't going to be different
nolemon- kind of light on content. only two votes were very lighthearted. kind of active-lurky
Scummy


Non-VTs (as implied by reactions to Vytron's gambit):
me
lynx- very antagonistic to the gambit. people's most suspicious of this bunch
DJ- seems much more laid back about the gambit thing, maybe for meta reasons.

D1's interrupted lynch might be a good place to start, but I can wait for more impressions to vote.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby ajh » Wed Sep 16, 2015 4:04 pm UTC

Reads from yesterday, will post again later.

Djehutynakht: may be town PR
moody7277: probably PR. Would have modkilled them.
bessie: on a team with Vytron?
Spack: gut says scum, but I really don’t have an idea.
Nebuduck: not-claim was weird. Also defending Spack, like EH noted.
lynx: a few weird posts, but I don’t see a reason to vote them
EH: liked the criticism of Spack’s swing-around

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Vytron » Wed Sep 16, 2015 4:43 pm UTC

@Spack: You're not voting DJ. Why? Oh, because of a coin toss :roll:

You didn't even FoS DJ, you have a vote on lynx and nothing on DJ, you want to appear as if you had the same suspicions on both, but it comes out as if you wanted lynx lynched, but DJ was fine, on actual data, regardless of what you said.

You can't vote both, so make a decision and provide a good reason. Otherwise going for lynx and not DJ looks wrong.

(and I'd be saying exactly the same, with DJ and lynx reversed, if you voted the other at random)

Oh yes, random voting is random voting, it doesn't matter how much you pretend to suspect people.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby SPACKlick » Wed Sep 16, 2015 5:09 pm UTC

I'm sorry Vytron but that doesn't hold up. I'm voting Lynx and when I voted lynx I made it clear it was a coin toss between lynx and DJ. I've made my case on both lynx and DJ. There's nobody who could read this thread up to the point of your accusation and think I wasn't pro lynching both lynx and DJ. I note you still haven't voted, fos'd or got your eye on anyone or made a case on anyone. You seem to be overly focussing on me. Weird. I will say I had assumed today would be a reasonably quick day since we seemed pretty close to lynching one of Lynx/DJ yesterday and that wasn't dependent on Carlington or Dr Ug.

Just a note to say I don't agree with ajh's reads but there's not enough in the post for me to get much out of that disagreement. I'd like ajh to elaborate a bit more.

weiyaoli has been pretty quiet and so I don't have a strong read either way and would like more content.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Djehutynakht » Wed Sep 16, 2015 6:12 pm UTC

SPACKlick wrote:I strongly doubt that. Wiley mafia would have known Carlington wasn't mafia. So, what, they thought he was SK? or PR?


You voted for Carlington yesterday, which means that you believed him to be non-town.

If the Mafia followed your reasoning, and knew by virtue of being Mafia themselves that Carlington wasn't one of them, that means that they would have logically believed him to either be a separate non-town entity, or at the very least a town PR. Both of which are very good NK targets for scum.

So you just majorly contradicted yourself there.
______

I also have to agree with Vytron that I think the whole "oh let me flip a coin" thing is a little scummy in and of itself.

However, I believe that Spacklick's open contradiction of himself above is a much more damning proof that he's making stuff up. And frankly I still suspect him of role-fishing from yesterday.

FoS: SPACKlick

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RoadieRich
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby RoadieRich » Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:09 pm UTC

- Only Cult Leader has recruiting powers - Yes
- When recruited players generally lose role identities, does this include powers? Yes
- When recruited players generally lose role identities, does this include any night or day chats they may be in? Yes
- Is the cult win condition Control half the player base? Yes
- Can Town win with cult still alive? No
- Were/are the cult able to recruit mafia? Sk's? Vigs? To control a kill. All players are recruitable, but powers are lost when recruited.
- Can you define Vanilla Mafia for me. I took vanilla to mean "Only using roles having a page to themselves on the MafiaScum Wiki, and the roles are not modified in any way from that described in the lede of said page." I made one exception to that rule, which was necessary for balance: any role that will block a kill will also block a cult recruit.

With the exception of the cult leader, all roles are listed in the game are listed on http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Category:Roles_Main_Page.

Votals
Lynx (2): SPACKlick, bessie
SPAKlick (1): Vytron

13 Players, 7 to lynch
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Vytron » Wed Sep 16, 2015 8:30 pm UTC

RoadieRich wrote:- Can you define Vanilla Mafia for me. [b]I took vanilla to mean "Only using roles having a page to themselves on the MafiaScum Wiki, and the roles are not modified in any way from that described in the lede of said page."


Oh, wow! Now, that's a wide definition of Vanilla. We could basically have anything on the game, as that wiki has pretty much registered all mafia roles invented at any time.

Which... is fine, at least, it's a lot more fun and interesting than "everyone is vanilla" :)

Nice catch by DJ, I completely missed that. I don't like Spack's coin toss and will keep my vote.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby bessie » Thu Sep 17, 2015 2:39 am UTC

Vytron, if I understand you correctly you believe SPACKlick may have been culted? And your reasoning is that he is acting differently than he did yesterday? You may be correct about SPACKlick being culted, any of us may have been culted (this is not a slip, I just thought saying any of you may have been culted was too winey). But now that RoadieRich has clarified how the cult functions in this game, I think that it is more important to get scum (mafia, anti-town independents with a kill) out of the way first. Cult’s not a danger to us; scum is trying to kill us.

At the risk of looking scummy, I would like to say that I think we should vote and move the game along. I don’t think that any of the three deaths so far have given us a lot of information. Faflec was modkilled without even making a confirmation post. Dr Ug was modkilled and there were no votes on him so there is no wagon to analyze. And Carlington didn’t have a team D1 so we can’t analyze his interactions with other players to find his partners. Although maybe a more experienced player than me can analyze Carlington’s posts and figure out whom he might have decided to recruit.

I’m happy with lynching lynx or switching my vote to Djehutynakht.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Vytron » Thu Sep 17, 2015 4:29 am UTC

The very basis of lynching lynx or DJ was that they weren't vanilla town, and that was mainly because we thought most people were vanilla. With the reveal of a cult, that means we got chocolate chips, and strawberry, and perhaps nuts and avocado in the game, so we have no idea what lynx or DJ could be. They could be town.

I guess we could do already a list of who would be what if lynx and/or DJ flipped town.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby ElectricHaze » Thu Sep 17, 2015 4:41 pm UTC

Well I wanted pretty much a straightforward vanilla game, but it looks like we don't exactly have that...

Right now I'm a little suspicious of vytron and bessie as possible cult recruits because Carlington was throwing them a bit of town cred in his analysis, and both were reading as a bit towny during the day, and would have been good recruits IMO. Right now I think that is something to keep in mind rather than pursuing because cult is without a recruit.

If we are still on the train of lynching people who slipped up over the PM thing yesterday I'm a bit more suspicious of moody than the others. The post about figuring out what he doesn't know pinged me, a bit.

I think if we are choosing from that pool my first choice would be moody then dj, followed by lynx.

I actually liked lynx's response to the whole discussion. Their cagey reaction and wanted to drop it fast makes me think more along the lines of TP worried we might be uncovering more TP than Scum.

Additionly, I'm heading out of town today for a wedding this weekend. So I'll be posting from my phone until Sunday. I should have access because I'm not heading out into the middle of nowhere this time, but posts will be shorter without my notes and a keyboard.
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby nolemonplease » Thu Sep 17, 2015 5:06 pm UTC

Hi, just checking in. I've been pretty sick the past few days, but feeling better now. Dedicating time to this soon, after I catch up on other things first.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby moody7277 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:27 pm UTC

So instead of the plane white vanilla they put in ice cream sandwiches like everyone was figuring, we've got the fancy Madagascar vanilla with the bean flecks in it.

@EH: what exactly can you point to that puts me above lynx or DJ as your favorite to lynch? Do you think I planned Dr Ug's demise?
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby moody7277 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:28 pm UTC

EBWOP: plain not plane.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby dimochka » Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:41 pm UTC

Sorry this is going to be a bit jumbled.

ahj - why was I missing from your list?
DJ - great catch regarding spack. now I suspect both of you.

I may have missed it but does a kill take precedence to a recruit?

Just to note - I'm surprised to see a cult because it puts a dent into all my theories of having a relatively vanilla game. Although it seems now the potential cultee is essentially an SK without a kill, so for the most part we can ignore him (not the whole time obviously but it's not a priority).

@Spack - what am I exculpating myself for again? I can't find the post for some reason.

The kill in my opinion came from a vig. I am not a vig. But this makes the most sense.

More later.
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Djehutynakht » Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:36 am UTC

This an old post that I honestly fell asleep before finishing last night (not during it's writing. I got up and did something else). Sorry:
__________

Honestly Bessie, I generally am myself a bit impatient myself in voting and getting the day over with (even as town, which is something I need to temper) but honestly it does strike me as a bit shady.

bessie wrote:I don’t think that any of the three deaths so far have given us a lot of information.


I have to really disagree there. Carlington's death was a major info-giver to us, not only that this game had a cult, which is super-dangerous, but also the fact that it's not as vanilla as it seems. I get what you mean though about it not giving us too much info to go on for lynching today. But it's something.
__________

Now back to the present day:

Observation: Bessie and SPACKlick are very closely aligned in this game in terms of analysis, vote preferences, etc. Dunno if this means anything. Doubtful both are scum. Possible one is, and following the other. I'd suspect SPACK in this instance. But no definitive evidence in this case.

Observation II: ElectricHaze seems on a quick read to have made a very sudden about-face since yesterday. I have to go back and actually analyze later.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby weiyaoli » Fri Sep 18, 2015 10:53 am UTC

Righto, sorry for the delay, had a busy few days since I was finishing up an internship. Back to my read through. My conclusions from the first 2 pages last time for easy reference:

thoughts so far:
lynx = pretty towny
vytron = ??? behaviour wise, but I'm pretty sure he's town from this role thing
Carlington = slightly scummy
SPACKlick = slightly scummy behaviourally so far, will have to look again at this whole role thing again (especially the timings of certain events) to work out something.


p3:

Spoiler:
I'm a bit confused how/why people deduced that DJ was the SK. Mainly from SPACKlick, since if he thought the game was so vanilla that cops/doctors etc.. wouldn't exist, I don't think SKs would either in that world. But anyway, this is just a small quibble since I don't think that is alignment deciding.

I got the vibe from lynx's post from early p1/p2 to be not wanting to claim because he was caught scum, but was worried it would out town PRs. I think frogman has a point about everyone claiming VT, but he didn't consider that if town PRs do not have the VT role PM, since other people have already "paraphrased" bits from it they cannot convincingly claim VT.

I'm thinking bessie might have been the recruit target from Carlington's post. I have a solid town read on bessie so far anyway, so I wouldn't consider lynching bessie either way (we should focus on lynching scum over cult hunting at the current point in time I think).


p4:

Spoiler:
From the reads lists people have been doing, I've now realised that we are 4 pages in, and lots of people have been fairly quiet. I don't really have reads either way on a ton of people since they haven't posted too much so far. e.g. nolelemon, moody

Not a big fan of Nebuduck's catchup post. I feel there's way too much set-up speculation for a post that's on p4, so there's a ton of stuff already out there to look at. He doesn't have an opinion either way on lynx or DJ, but is happy to go along with a lynch of one of them. Opportunistic I think.

Don't quite follow what makes EH scum from that post @Vytron.

I think I'm now town reading SPACKlick at this point. I think he was VT yesterday. No idea if he was recruited or not, it's possible since he pushed Carlington a bit D1.

I mean it's clear what moody doesn't know from his post, just as it's clear why SPACKlick is VT from his reaction to it. It still doesn't tell me too much about whether moody is town PR or scum. I'll have to look over moody in isolation I think. I was scum leaning on him just by the sparseness of his posts before that post though.


p5:
Spoiler:
I think behaviourally Nebu is a bit strange so far, but he does claim VT here.


End of D1 conclusions:
Stuff that changed from my impressions from the first two pages:

lynx is less towny, but mostly because of their absence, especially after they came under fire by Vytron etc...
pretty sure SPACKlick is town, at least up to the end of D1.

New reads:
Nebuduck - behaviourally he isn't the towniest town to ever town, but I think he's probably town based on his reaction to Dr Ug's post.
bessie - I'm fairly sure they are town, though will re-evaluate today since there was a cult reveal.
moody - certain they aren't VT, will be the focus of my next post I think

Other people I don't have a particularly strong read either way.

Will catch up to D2 later today when I have more time.
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby SPACKlick » Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:43 pm UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:
SPACKlick wrote:I strongly doubt that. Wiley mafia would have known Carlington wasn't mafia. So, what, they thought he was SK? or PR?
You voted for Carlington yesterday, which means that you believed him to be non-town.

If the Mafia followed your reasoning, and knew by virtue of being Mafia themselves that Carlington wasn't one of them, that means that they would have logically believed him to either be a separate non-town entity, or at the very least a town PR. Both of which are very good NK targets for scum.

So you just majorly contradicted yourself there.
No, I was responding to Mafia voting Carlington to throw us off. I don't think there's a way for it be them throwing us off because they would have known he was SK or PR. The unstated conclusion is that I suspect if mafia killed Carlington they killed him without wine to remove a threat.
RoadieRich wrote:- Only Cult Leader has recruiting powers - Yes
- When recruited players generally lose role identities, does this include powers? Yes
- When recruited players generally lose role identities, does this include any night or day chats they may be in? Yes
- Is the cult win condition Control half the player base? Yes
- Can Town win with cult still alive? No
- Were/are the cult able to recruit mafia? Sk's? Vigs? To control a kill. All players are recruitable, but powers are lost when recruited.

Thanks, that's more detail than I expected actually. The answer to question 3 means Scum will know N2 whether or not a scum buddy was recruited and Masons know if a mason buddy was recruited. The answer to question 5 means that we do have to locate the cult. This could be very difficult. Once we've removed threats to town I don't see many options for that other than looking at who Carlington thought we thought was townie.

RoadieRich wrote:- Can you define Vanilla Mafia for me. I took vanilla to mean "Only using roles having a page to themselves on the MafiaScum Wiki, and the roles are not modified in any way from that described in the lede of said page." I made one exception to that rule, which was necessary for balance: any role that will block a kill will also block a cult recruit.

With the exception of the cult leader, all roles are listed in the game are listed on http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Category:Roles_Main_Page.

I wouldn't call that vanilla and I would call the decision you made to call it vanilla bastard. Mafiascum has a whole host of roles some of them definitively bastard and alignment changing roles are always best declared a possibility when they're around. That said I don't think this game will be unfun.

bessie wrote:At the risk of looking scummy, I would like to say that I think we should vote and move the game along. I don’t think that any of the three deaths so far have given us a lot of information. Faflec was modkilled without even making a confirmation post. Dr Ug was modkilled and there were no votes on him so there is no wagon to analyze. And Carlington didn’t have a team D1 so we can’t analyze his interactions with other players to find his partners. Although maybe a more experienced player than me can analyze Carlington’s posts and figure out whom he might have decided to recruit.

I’m happy with lynching lynx or switching my vote to Djehutynakht.

I think Carlington's NK could tell us something. While there are reasons for a scum team to kill carlington I think if an independent like an SK felt about him yesterday how I did it very much makes sense to take him out. That would mean there was no scum kill last night so either doctor, roleblocker or, and I consider this a very real possibility with scum in the game, no mafia at all, just independents.

I still think DJ and Lynx's reactions to accusations of not having the VT PM make them the most likely non-town.

Vytron wrote:The very basis of lynching lynx or DJ was that they weren't vanilla town, and that was mainly because we thought most people were vanilla. With the reveal of a cult, that means we got chocolate chips, and strawberry, and perhaps nuts and avocado in the game, so we have no idea what lynx or DJ could be. They could be town.

I disagree, I wasn't voting lynx and DJ solely because they weren't VT as can be seen from my reactions to other non-vt's. It was mostly their reactions to being told they weren't VT that sounded anti-town to me.

dimochka wrote:@Spack - what am I exculpating myself for again? I can't find the post for some reason.

Both I and Dr Ug felt that a few of your posts yesterday rang scummy, I asked a few direct questions to get a sense of your play which you didn't answer and Dr Ug pointed to a few things specifically that felt scummy. You've kind of breexed past those discussions without addressing people's concerns.

The kill in my opinion came from a vig. I am not a vig. But this makes the most sense.

I can see a vig kill making sense but there was no other kill. How do you explain the vig kill being the only kill in that case?

I like weiyaoli's reads post. and take on board their point about quiet players. We need to prod lurkers and people not offering opinions harder. Nebuduck has been AFK for Three days, It's been 9.5 days (including 5 days of night) since Nolemon posted anything game related. 9.8 for Lynx. Nearly 10 for Frogman.

Roadie, can we get modprods on these four players

From various people's opinions of Lynx and DJ today and incorporating the fact that lynx hasn't posted for three days I'd rather lynch lynx that DJ today, I think in the case of my reads being wrong that !TownLynx would be less useful that !TownDJ

Vytron wrote:I guess we could do already a list of who would be what if lynx and/or DJ flipped town.

That would be dumb. The last thing you tell scum is what you would think if x happened. If either of them dies and flips town then we discuss what it means. Discussing it beforehand means we have to take into account what scum would have engineered given they know what we would have thought and leads to horrible horrible wine.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby bessie » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:10 pm UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:Honestly Bessie, I generally am myself a bit impatient myself in voting and getting the day over with (even as town, which is something I need to temper) but honestly it does strike me as a bit shady.

You understood my reasons perfectly. Yes, Carlington’s death gave us information, but not a lot to analyze. You even acknowledged that you understood me here:
Djehutynakht wrote:I get what you mean though about it not giving us too much info to go on for lynching today.

I’m suspicious as to why you chose to selectively quote me, point to it as a scum tell, and back down based on another part of my post that you chose not to quote.

ElectricHaze wrote:Right now I'm a little suspicious of vytron and bessie as possible cult recruits because Carlington was throwing them a bit of town cred in his analysis, and both were reading as a bit towny during the day, and would have been good recruits IMO. Right now I think that is something to keep in mind rather than pursuing because cult is without a recruit.

I really have no good response to this. I agree that I look like a possible recruit. So do others. And I’m OK with being lynched for it after we get rid of the mafia.

Late for work, more tonight.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby RoadieRich » Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:03 pm UTC

SPACKlick wrote:Thanks, that's more detail than I expected actually.

You're not the first to accuse this game of being bastard, so I thought I'd clear the water somewhat.

SPACKlick wrote:Roadie, can we get modprods on these four players

I will check and prod as appropriate.
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby RoadieRich » Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:05 pm UTC

Votals
Lynx (2): SPACKlick, bessie
SPAKlick (1): Vytron

13 Players, 7 to lynch

Frogman, Lynx and Nebuduck have been modprodded and have unbtil Noon EDT Monday to post in thread.

Nolemonplease has posted in thread in the last three days, so is was not prodded at this time.
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Vytron » Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:51 pm UTC

(oh, yeah, I think this deserves to be explained: the reason the game could be taken as pseudobastard is that it is about the mod lying to players. When you get, say "you win if all anti-town factions get eliminated", in a game, which, is implied when one gets a town role, and then you get "no, wait, you were recruited by cult, your previous win condition was a lie, now you need to survive or help other people from the cult survive", that's kind of bastard.)

In any case, I disagree with Spack that DJ's reaction to the whole thing was scummy, actually, it was his reaction that made me defend him so much.

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Nebuduck
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Nebuduck » Sat Sep 19, 2015 4:23 pm UTC

Just noticed the following on mafia scum wiki:

Moderators are mixed in regards to what happens if a Cult Leader attempts to recruit Mafia, as a recruited Mafia player can simply tell the rest of the cult who the other scum are. Options have ranged from the Mafioso simply not getting recruited to the Cult Leader dying to the Mafioso getting recruited and replaced at the same time (so that they don't know who the other scum are). The most common solution is usually the second one.


If RR went with that, and chose the second option, it's possible that Carlington tried to recruit a mafioso, and hence died. I think it's unlikely that that's the case (I think Carlington would have gone for someone 'proven' to be town - SPACKlick, Vytron or bessie), but just wanted to make sure that option was out there.

I agree that we shouldn't worry too much about hunting down a potential cult recruit at this point in time. If we need to kill them for town to win, we can probably do that after we've gotten rid of all mafia.

I don't think we should rush into another lynch. Knowing that there's cult in this game has entirely changed my view of what roles could be out there, and I see it as no more likely that dj or lynx is mafia than that they are pro town roles.

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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby SPACKlick » Sat Sep 19, 2015 7:38 pm UTC

Nebuduck wrote:Just noticed the following on mafia scum wiki:

Moderators are mixed in regards to what happens if a Cult Leader attempts to recruit Mafia, as a recruited Mafia player can simply tell the rest of the cult who the other scum are. Options have ranged from the Mafioso simply not getting recruited to the Cult Leader dying to the Mafioso getting recruited and replaced at the same time (so that they don't know who the other scum are). The most common solution is usually the second one.


If RR went with that, and chose the second option, it's possible that Carlington tried to recruit a mafioso, and hence died.[snip] but just wanted to make sure that option was out there.
not in this game see...
RoadieRich wrote:- When recruited players generally lose role identities, does this include powers? Yes
- When recruited players generally lose role identities, does this include any night or day chats they may be in? Yes
[snip]
- Were/are the cult able to recruit mafia? Sk's? Vigs? To control a kill. All players are recruitable, but powers are lost when recruited.

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bessie
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby bessie » Sun Sep 20, 2015 4:57 am UTC

Here’s an updated list of player reads. I tried to focus on content posted since my previous list on Sept 8.

ajh – Since my previous analysis post he has made one short post with reads on about half the players. And his reads are almost worthless because he gives no analysis or reasons. His read on me:
ajh wrote:bessie: on a team with Vytron?

ajh, have you even been following this game? There has been a great deal of discussion pertaining to this very question. My feeling on ajh is that even if he’s town, he may be a problem later in the game because there won’t be enough quality content to distinguish him from scum.

Carlington – Cult leader, killed by mafia, SK, or vigilante, or killed by his target (does this kind of role fit the current description of vanilla?), or killed by trying to recruit someone unrecruitable (ruled out by mod description of role?). He had limited reads and interaction with other players. Analyzing his content for possible cult recruits:
1. bessie, was seen as townie by many players on D1 including Carlington.
2. Vytron, trusted by Carlington, but I think Vytron’s playstyle (draws attention to himself) makes him an unlikely recruit choice.
3. Djehutynakht, Carlington was against lynching him.
4. lynx, Carlington pushed the lynch on him.
So this list tells me nothing because I know it wasn't me, but I thought I'd throw it out there.

dimochka – Some things that stand out to me from D1:
dimochka wrote:I think our focus on DJ/lynx has been way too strong without any concrete evidence.

dimochka makes this statement, but doesn't offer any alternatives except moody and Carlington. Then he says this in the same post that he is willing to lynch "any of you three in any order whatsoever" and I'm not exactly sure who he means. Has your opinion changed on lynx and DJ now that we know the game isn’t vanilla?

Djehutynakht – My top pick for mafia. Some reasons:

His misdirection about the reasons I find him suspicious covered here: viewtopic.php?f=53&t=112543#p3851174

This remark (italics are DJ's):
Djehutynakht wrote:I don't see how my attitude towards Vytron was different from anyone else's behavior at the start of the game. I said I was "looking at" (I didn't use the word suspicious, at least not until later) Vytron out of pure instinct based on past games with him. Because he is Vytron Which, honestly, is literally what everyone does on their first post D1. They poke fingers at random people. They make random votes. That's basically what I did.

He's trying to brush off suspicious content because it’s what everyone does. Not true, everyone doesn’t do this. I already stated in this thread that I don’t like the random voting stage and I don’t do it, in part because I admit that I can be somewhat clueless in trying to figure out which votes were serious later.
Djehutynakht wrote:Since so many people saw me as "definitely" scum (and still do, with the whole "eh, we'll lynch him tomorrow guys" rhetoric) it's way more acceptable for scum to flock to me as a target, because tomorrow the universal story would be "whoops. Well, we all thought he was scum. Nothing scummy about voting for him, right?".

So if someone is voting for you they’re scum?

Misrepresenting an earlier post of mine, which I covered here: viewtopic.php?f=53&t=112543#p3857243

Dr Ug – Reading his posts as confirmed town. I agreed with a lot of his content in this game so I will note that his primary suspects Vytron, lynx, DJ. Possible suspects moody, dimochka, ajh.

ElectricHaze – All of his D1 content focused on SPACKlick. Very little D2 content, but is out of town for the weekend. He has good content, but most of it has been focused on one player. Looking forward to some quality content from him next week.

frogman – I hope he comes back because this is my favorite quote in this game:
frogman wrote:I hope this doesn't RUIN MATH


lynx – He hasn’t made a post with game content since Sept 4. I really don’t like this though:
lynx wrote:So who was lynched? Me?

Sorry all, had no internet at home or work for the majority of the week.

Because lynx is an experienced player and mod, it seems strange to me that he would post in thread at night, especially since two posts before this is the post where the mod called night. And why the question? If he’s suspected he was dead he should know not to post in thread.

moody7277 – Now that we know there are other anti-town factions, I’m suspicious of moody’s use of “mafia” here:
moody7277 wrote:"Role: vanilla ice cream
You vanilla town. What did you expect?
You win when mafia have been eliminated"

This makes me suspect he didn’t get any town PM (vanilla or power town). I actually like moody’s D2 content so far. I am trying to resolve this contradiction in my mind.

Nebuduck – Pretty neutral in his content except for his questioning of ElectricHaze on D1. All D2 content so far has focused on the cult.

nolemonplease – Only made one post since my last analysis of them. The post was a little short and contained little analysis, but they did take a strong stand on who they believed was town. Hasn’t had time to catch up yet.

SPACKlick – Some things that stand out to me.
SPACKlick wrote:I think you're misreading me here Djehutynakht, I was saying IF your were VT or a role that had the same/similar role PM, you would have breadcrumbed or outright expressed the information that the suspicion of you is based on in the role PM. There's no cost to doing it, the information is essentially out there, it says nothing directly about your role other than letting town see you're likely town. You still don't know what you don't know and that's enough for me. I will say I've backed of from 100% as people have shown that "vanilla" games round here are/may be less vanilla than my experience elsewhere. That said I still think your response hasn't been townie.

I agree with your read on Djehutynakht, but I in all fairness I think that I need to defend DJ’s decision not to breadcrumb. I never do it myself because I can never think of anything subtle or clever, and I almost never spot breadcrumbs. There was also the question as to how much information about our role PMs the mod would allow us to reveal (since answered). But other than those two points I agree with you.

SPACKlick’s analysis of Carlington is what convinced me to leave my vote on Carlington. Here's the part that stands out to me the most:
SPACKlick wrote:Carlington, I don't like the defensive reaction and quick removal of a vote from DJ when Bessie joined. If DJ flips scum, I'll be eyeing Carlington. He also called himself scummy for using other peoples votes to scumhunt. And he wrote this "If I were a cop the mod, I would..."
Why? I spent ten minutes looking at this and can't work out why he would possibly post it. This is what started the spiral into an accusation. The he fished for Vytron or Bessie to claim PR. Also his really long detailed post where he votes to lynx (including the addendum) actually says very little and in it he says "let's not lynch DJ because reasons we should lynch lynx for the reasons I just said we shouldn't lynch DJ" which is really suspect. And on which he doesn't place a vote until the lynx swing gets some traction. I'm also bothered by his repeated claiming that people are "Confirmed Town".

I will want to return to this read on Carlington later in the game when we are trying to figure out the recruit. SPACKlick’s list of cult gameplay questions for RoadieRich makes me think he’s not cult. If he was culted he could have asked those questions by PM.

Vytron – Vytron, I’m really not following your reasons for voting SPACKlick. But I’m not seeing you as scummy, just as someone I don’t agree with.

weiyaoli – I like what he has posted so far. I don’t have a read on him yet because he hasn’t had any interactions with other players.
weiyaoli wrote:I think behaviourally Nebu is a bit strange so far, but he does claim VT here.

I’ve never played a game with Nebuduck. Do you mean scummy strange, or strange for Nebuduck?

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby ajh » Mon Sep 21, 2015 11:35 am UTC

dimochka, you and some others didn’t really leave an impression on me. Attributing the single NK to a vig would mean the mafiosi withheld. Why would they do that?
Nebuduck mentioned power roles a couple of times, as if they knew there were some in the game (when our working theory was still “pretty vanilla”). Then explicitly didn’t claim VT.
vote Nebuduck

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lynx
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby lynx » Mon Sep 21, 2015 12:26 pm UTC

Hello, I'm back. Starting a read-through then will make a proper post. Sorry again for my absence.

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nolemonplease
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby nolemonplease » Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:10 pm UTC

Still kind of drowning. I had been waiting to post until I could reread the thread, but that's not viable until later tonight, so thought I'd check in now.

I was under the impression that this was a hidden roleset that vanilla themed, not necessarily a vanilla roleset. So not totally surprising to me.

Right now, my theory is that we have mafia members, and the mafia kill last night was Carlington. From there, I wonder why Carlington was killed. Looking back at who he pushed, it seems to be DJ/lynx.

Vote: lynx

I think. Until I can further evaluate.

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ElectricHaze
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby ElectricHaze » Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:40 pm UTC

Back from my trip.

moody7277 wrote:@EH: what exactly can you point to that puts me above lynx or DJ as your favorite to lynch? Do you think I planned Dr Ug's demise?


Well out of those three your defense was really odd to me. Your post about figuring out what you don't know 100% confirmed you as not VT. How could you feel so confident doing that unless you knew it wouldn't get you killed overnight? Since you are still alive it seems even more likely you are mafia or got culted.

Djehutynakht wrote:Observation II: ElectricHaze seems on a quick read to have made a very sudden about-face since yesterday. I have to go back and actually analyze later.


It's not an about face, I still don't think the PM mismatches aren't a very good reason for a vote. Yesterday I thought it was a bad reason because I was expecting vanilla town, vanilla mafia and maybe couple town power roles to balance out an extra mafia member or two for a game this size, so I thought any PM slip ups would most likely be PT, as I still think VT and VM got the same PM template. Now that we know there is a cult and that vanilla in this game means all roles are possible things have changed a bit. I think the slip up is more like 50/50 PT vs PM/ind, so not an outright bad idea anymore, but still dangerous as I think a mislynch hits PT.
Who has never killed an hour? Not casually or without thought, but carefully: a premeditated murder of minutes.

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moody7277
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby moody7277 » Mon Sep 21, 2015 5:07 pm UTC

ElectricHaze wrote:Your post about figuring out what you don't know 100% confirmed you as not VT.


I was already suspected of being such when Vytron voted for me (especially by him based off my response to his gambit). I figured that by the time I responded to SPACKlick in more detail, the gambit had played out and I was trying to put it to bed. I certainly didn't think anyone was crazy enough to correct me on any mistakes I made.

ElectricHaze wrote:How could you feel so confident doing that unless you knew it wouldn't get you killed overnight? Since you are still alive it seems even more likely you are mafia or got culted.


I was not at all confident that I wouldn't be killed. Also, since cult wasn't on the radar D1, I obviously wasn't thinking about that. With the plethora of targets that we alleged non-VTs provided, that might have lowered my chances some. Finally, as has been discussed, mafia may have withheld to create wine, but speculating on scum motivation is usually a losing game. With cult revealed, I think SK is back on the table as a possibility.

I reiterate: if we could be sure that [lynx, DJ, me] had two scum in it, I would be fine with being lynched. It's just that DJ doesn't read scum to me, and a much wider set of non-VT role possibilities have opened up.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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dimochka
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby dimochka » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:54 pm UTC

back from fun weekend, catching up. on a quick search of my name i need to respond to spacklick, ajh, and bessie today.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

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Djehutynakht
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Djehutynakht » Tue Sep 22, 2015 5:15 am UTC

Sorry guys. Been busy. I need to do a read-through of the thread and see what's up.

I suspect SPACKLICK as a holdover from yesterday, plus I still think I caught a possible slip today. But my skimming reveals potential other possibilities.

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RoadieRich
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby RoadieRich » Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:10 pm UTC

The red light is back. This time, it makes its sad note twice, on Nebuduck and Frogman. Both are past their Best Before.

Frogman has been modkilled for inactivity. He was vanilla town.
Nebuduck has been modkilled for inactivity. He was Lemon Sorbet, a Serial Killer.

Votals:
Lynx (3): SPACKlick, bessie, Nolemonplease
SPAKlick (1): Vytron

11 Players, 6 to lynch
73, de KE8BSL loc EN26.

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weiyaoli
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby weiyaoli » Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:30 pm UTC

@bessie, it doesn't matter too much anymore, but I found him behaviourally scummy, doing things like role spec and making lists instead of scum hunting. Which is a bit strange, since an SK can very well scum hunt.

I'm honestly starting to think more and more that we have either a 1 person mafia team, or no scum at all and another form of independent out there.
And you thought I was crazy...

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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby SPACKlick » Tue Sep 22, 2015 1:38 pm UTC

I wrote the first line of this post and the first quote before Djehutkyanut's last post

Wow this game's gotten quiet. 6 Players (including me) not posting for over 48 hours. Most of the most recent posts being pretty one linery.

bessie wrote:
weiyaoli wrote:I think behaviourally Nebu is a bit strange so far, but he does claim VT here.

I’ve never played a game with Nebuduck. Do you mean scummy strange, or strange for Nebuduck?

Turns out it was Serial Killer Strange. Not surprised Nebu was an independent but never had a strong read either way.

ElectricHaze wrote: I still don't think the PM mismatches aren't a very good reason for a vote.
What do you think about people's reactions to the accusations based on PM as a reason for a vote?

Of the 10 of you left (ignoring having been culted because my reads on that are independent of the other reads), Gaps indicate a large step between people

Town
Vytron
Bessie
Moody

Weiyaoli
Electrichaze
ajh
Nolemonplease

Dimochka

DJ
Lynx
Scum

There's not a lot to analyse here, we're down three townies, one cult leader and one serial killer after one lynch and one NK and discussion has stalled. I'm sort of at the point where I think a deadline would be productive.

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moody7277
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby moody7277 » Tue Sep 22, 2015 2:23 pm UTC

weiyaoli wrote:I'm honestly starting to think more and more that we have either a 1 person mafia team, or no scum at all and another form of independent out there.


FoS: weiyaoli

Trying to minimize the mafia threat. I find that suspicious.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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weiyaoli
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby weiyaoli » Tue Sep 22, 2015 3:01 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:
weiyaoli wrote:I'm honestly starting to think more and more that we have either a 1 person mafia team, or no scum at all and another form of independent out there.


FoS: weiyaoli

Trying to minimize the mafia threat. I find that suspicious.

*Shrug*

Saying that I think there's only 1 mafia isn't minimizing the threat from them. It'll be obvious if there is more than one if one flips and the game doesn't end (assuming no more anti town indys). I haven't been in the least advocating hunting for the potential cult or other independents. Meanwhile we've had only one kill last night, and two fairly polarizing independent factions (Cult and SK) already, so it's not far fetched to believe the scum faction isn't that strong. So whatever.
And you thought I was crazy...

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Vytron » Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:07 pm UTC

Yeah, I'm here.

Wow! Nebuduck was SK!

Anyway, interest kind of fades after people start getting modkilled, I don't think I have much to say, I agree a deadline would be helpful.

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bessie
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby bessie » Wed Sep 23, 2015 1:49 am UTC

I would make a nice long post, but it would be pretty much the same as my previous post, since I haven’t had a lot of response yet.

town
bessie
Vytron
weiyaoli
SPACKlick
nolemonplease
ajh
dimochka
ElectricHaze
moody7277
lynx
Djehutynakht
scum

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SPACKlick
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby SPACKlick » Wed Sep 23, 2015 10:32 am UTC

I'm posting mostly to say I have read the thread to this point.

I'm more with Weiyaoli than Moody on the whole "minimal scum team" issue. I doubt there's a lot of scum in a game with SK and cult.

I still have no read whatsoever on my middle group in my previous scum list except Weiyaoli has moved across the gap to town side.


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