Mafia Cave - Cave is destroyed (mafia win)

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freezeblade
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby freezeblade » Mon Oct 19, 2015 8:48 pm UTC

I don't know how you can say he's town for certain, until someone flips after death, nothing is known 100% for certain about their role.

I know that I'm town (obviously), and so a coin flip is better than me getting lynched (to me at least, as I am sure of my own townieness)

:arrow: :arrow: unvote

:arrow: :arrow: Vote: Diemo
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby Vytron » Mon Oct 19, 2015 8:59 pm UTC

:arrow: :arrow: Unvote

This is the worst possible outcome after a gambit. Still better than a coin playing and deciding who's lynched, though :roll:

So I hope Diemo is scum. Would be funny to have scum playing the self-confirming town gambit.

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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby Sungura » Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:59 pm UTC

Votals
4 - diemo (frogman, carlington, sir gabriel, freezeblade)
3 - freezeblade (dr ug, mpolo, electric haze)
1 - sir Gabriel (moody)

14 players, 8 to drown
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby moody7277 » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:11 pm UTC

I'm not unhappy with a Diemo lynch. And as I said previously, I'm convinced enough of my scum!fb finding ability that his lynch can be tabled for now. My preference is where my vote currently resides, and where it will stay to avoid any tie vote shenanigans. Clarity of flips and other night actions should prove fruitful.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby Carlington » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:23 pm UTC

Looking like the present hour will be my last chance to post before nightfall. As far as I'm aware, we don't know whether or not scum were given town's role PMs, so it's entirely possible that Diemo is bluffing us. In that case, if Diemo flips scum then the jig is up, and scum can no longer self-confirm as town through PM gambits like this. That's a very useful outcome. freezeblade isn't pinging me any more than usual, so I don't have any particular reason to switch my vote to join a wagon on him. I'm happy enough with my vote where it is.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby Suzaku » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:40 pm UTC

Gah, I somehow had it in my head that deadline was Wednesday.

Quick reread getting underway; back with a post in hopefully 20~30 minutes.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby Suzaku » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:19 pm UTC

OK.

I'm with moody in that I don't like meta-gaming role PM gambits.
That said, since it's out there now: I believe it's likely that Diemo has seen the PM in question. This certainly doesn't confirm anything other than that he's seen it, though. Scum could have been given the PM as a safe claim, or, if there's a cult he could be a recruit.

On balance, it's probably more likely that he's town, and that my pings on him earlier were false-positives.

So, freezeblade.
Had certainly been flying under the radar; I haven't really got a feeling either way that I can recall. OTOH, some of the recent cases on him do make sense, so I wouldn't be unhappy with his lynch. I would prefer his lynch to Diemo's at this point.

That puts me in a bind, however, as if I vote for him I tie the votals.

I suppose that 50% chance of the right (fmpov) lynch is better than 100% chance of the wrong lynch, so

:arrow: :arrow: Vote: freezeblade
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby Vytron » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:50 am UTC

:arrow: :arrow: Vote: freezeblade

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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby Vytron » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:53 am UTC

Yeah, the chances Amy gave scum copies of the role PMs are very low, so...

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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby freezeblade » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:02 am UTC

If I even partial claim, it will hurt town, and if I full claim, it will definitly hurt town.

I know what happened to Vytron to cause him not to get lynched.

It was illuded to (indirectly) by another player earlier, but I have more details.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby Vytron » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:12 am UTC

Oh, well...

:arrow: :arrow: Unvote: Freezeblade
:arrow: :arrow: Vote: Diemo


This is probably a two townies trainwreck, so pretend I'm the coin.

Would sharing those details be hurtful to town?

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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby Madge » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:42 am UTC

I don't know what to do D: I came into this wanting to vote freezeblade to save diemo, but now I'm not sure - though freezeblade has not told us whether he's the one responsible for Vytron being saved, or just that he knows about it.

However, if freezeblade is scum, and ressurected Vytron as scum, then maybe this is FB's way of getting Vytron out.

So, I'd like to go back to the coin flip - let's give it the possibility of testing my crazy hypothesis.

:arrow: :arrow: vote: freezeblade
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby moody7277 » Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:04 am UTC

:arrow: :arrow: Unvote

:arrow: :arrow: Vote: freezeblade

Leaving the lynch to a coin flip smacks of scum mayhem. As annoying as I find the whole PM thing, it was the case in the other game that the gambiter was town, so that's the side I'm coming down on. OTOH, Diemo could be pulling the wool over our eyes, in which case well played.

Tomorrow, Madge goes on the suspect list with SirG.
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Re: Mafia Cave - NIGHT 2 - who drowned who?

Postby Sungura » Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:06 am UTC

Votals
5 - diemo (frogman, carlington, sir gabriel, freezeblade, vytron)
6 - freezeblade (dr ug, mpolo, electric haze, suzaku, madge, moody)

People were confused, the group divided. Half wanted diemo to be drowned, but half preferred freezeblade! In the end they grabbed them both but freezeblade fought back and jumped onto diemo, drowning them. (Coin toss came up Diemo to die). But then, a ninja happened on the mod while writing this! Moody switches their vote to freezeblade, and they die! Bewildered and befuddled (and very wet, a bad thing to be in a cave!), everyone went back to the warm fire to try to dry off, roast marshmallows, and speak of the day's events.

freezeblade is drowned. Cave Rescue. Town.
DJ is modkilled. Tricolor Bat. Cop. Town.

Night 2 starts now. Deadline is Wednesday night.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Sungura » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:49 pm UTC

As people spoke in hush whispers around the campfire, no one noticed a sly little creature slinking around, waiting for their chance to strike. In another passage, a group ganged up on frogman and beat them over the head with a rock until dead. Everyone back at camp was confused and hope was being lost, like the bats filtering out into the night.

Frogman is dead. Biologist. Independent.
Moody is dead. Cave Crawfish. Mafia.

Day Three. 9 players, 5 to fall to death.
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Diemo
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Diemo » Tue Oct 20, 2015 9:20 pm UTC

I have moved into a house without internet. As such my posting will be fairly sporadic
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Sungura » Tue Oct 20, 2015 9:24 pm UTC

Okay, please continue to play though! I have no replacements so the only resort is modkill, and I'm really sick of doing that.
FWIW I go by one good content analysis post per day is required to avoid modkill. You know, something beyond "eh, I don't like x because y, vote blah".
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Madge » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:32 pm UTC

OK, when Moody changed his vote at the last minute, he changed from voting for SirG to voting for Freezeblade(town).

It's interesting that moody changed to freezeblade when he could just as easily have gotten Diemo lynched, and you would think if he was admonishing me for tying the vote he'd set it back to how it originally was (with diemo being lynched). Was he trying to protect his scumbuddy diemo? Surely scum wouldn't bring attention to themselves like that otherwise.

I'm also sorry for changing my vote at last minute but I had an awful sinking feeling about a FB/Vytron team, which was obviously unfounded now.

Hopefully we have some useful results from last night.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Vytron » Wed Oct 21, 2015 4:05 am UTC

:arrow: :arrow: Vote: SirGabriel

This is the classic scum voting on scum when it doesn't matter so that if they die you point out the suspicions you "had".

SirGabriel wrote:
moody7277 wrote: :arrow: :arrow: Vote: SirGabriel

because I just had a "weird but can't tell situation" turn out to be scum.

I don't think that's a very good reason to vote, but I also don't think it necessarily makes moody scummy.


^His reaction.

This was the only time SirGabriel mentions Moody THE ENTIRE GAME.

Okay, the other two times he mentioned Moody was when he said he'd vote me if I couldn't convince him about the possibility of a RR+Moody scum team (and then he voted me, like a delayed scum-vote), and when he made a summary of everything moody did (without any comment regarding what he thought of Moody.)

The rest of SirGabriel's posts are a bunch of one lines and mostly nothing of substance, so I'm convinced he's scum.

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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby mpolo » Wed Oct 21, 2015 6:11 am UTC

Moody's vote-change does look damning for SirGabriel. I want to look more closely before I start voting, though.

Tri-color bats seem to be town, so my theory about a mason infiltrator has less legs than it had before. Which means that username tends to appear better.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Madge » Wed Oct 21, 2015 7:17 am UTC

If moody's vote makes SirG look bad, why are we voting for SirG instead of moody? I mean, there's a possibility that sirG is a townie that moody couldn't get the wagon on, isn't there? So why target SirG when moody is more likely scum?

Or am I missing something?
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Suzaku » Wed Oct 21, 2015 8:18 am UTC

Moody's dead baby, Moody's dead.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Madge » Wed Oct 21, 2015 8:31 am UTC

Thanks for that, sugar. Now it all makes sense.

Wait, no it doesn't. Why SirG and not Diemo, who moody actually saved from the lynch?
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Carlington » Wed Oct 21, 2015 8:49 am UTC

Madge, you're pushing really, really hard to move the vote away from SirG and onto what seems like literally anybody else. You're also pushing to distance yourself from moody, who just flipped scum. Looking at your last couple of posts at the end of yesterday, you also changed vote at the last second, onto freezeblade who then flipped town. That vote also tied the votals (a huge scumtell in my books) and pushed the lynch off Diemo who you implied was moody's scumbuddy - not to mention that saving Diemo was your explicitly stated reason for posting in the first place! Last but not least, your vote set the scene perfectly for moody to change at the last second and lynch freezeblade. This does not look even a little good from where I'm standing.

:arrow: :arrow: Vote: Madge
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Madge » Wed Oct 21, 2015 8:54 am UTC

Actually I was worried about freezeblade and vytron buddying like a scumteam more than I was supportive of diemo.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Dr Ug » Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:16 am UTC

Sungura wrote:Moody is dead. Cave Crawfish. Mafia.

Sungura wrote:Cave Crawfish: You are smaller than your above ground cousins, but the cave probably slows your growth. You may live to be very old, no one knows.

Does this strike anyone else as strange? I didn't exactly think "Crawfish, gee that looks like the mafia faction". Biologist as independent is also interesting. I wonder what his wincon was. Without that knowledge analysing his posts is quite the task...

I'm definitely seeing the SirG/Diemo/madge link.
Madge wrote: I came into this wanting to vote freezeblade to save diemo
Madge wrote:but I had an awful sinking feeling about a FB/Vytron team, which was obviously unfounded now.
Madge wrote:Actually I was worried about freezeblade and vytron buddying like a scumteam more than I was supportive of diemo.
B and C are not consistent with A (which happened day 2). You said you changed your vote to save Diemo. Why? You posted earlier that you thought he had received the caver PM, but said it's possible that scum received that message. Now you're trying to distance yourself from him.

Suzaku: Do you think Diemo is scum or town?

Suzaku wrote:Moody's dead baby, Moody's dead.
Please tell me that's not all you have to contribute. How about a bit about what you think of other players? What do you think about Diemo? You were late on the vote on freezeblade, why did you pick him over Diemo?

Vytron makes a very good point regarding SirGabriel. The to and fro between moody and him is quite the tell IMO. I think knowledge of his towniness or otherwise also gives us information about madge and possibly Diemo (note that he was third vote on Diemo also -

It's enough for me to:

:arrow: :arrow: Vote: SirGabriel.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Suzaku » Wed Oct 21, 2015 12:58 pm UTC

No, that's not all I've got, although it's all I could do on a short mid-afternoon break at work.

Diemo:
I still believe that he has seen the caver PM, as I said. It is, of course, possible that scum were given the PM, but in my experience, this is not the usual practice in closed setups.
That moody voted in a way to save him is a mark against him, but remember that moody was night-killed, not lynched, so didn't expect to be revealed as scum.

On balance I still think it's more likely that he's town than scum, but I'm a lot less sure than I was when I voted for fb.

On the fb vote, I was going to unvote when I saw his 'I know what happened to Vytron' claim, but unfortunately Amy had already called night at that point.
Major FoS on anyone who voted fb after that claim, which means one conf scum and Madge.

SirGabriel:
I' not sure that the fact the moody was voting him is particularly significant. If SirG had looked like he had a reasonable chance to be lynched, then I could see the 'scum-on-scum-vote-for-townie-points' argument, but this time? I think it's just as likely that he was a good, unlikely-to-be-lynched, target of opportunity so that whichever of Diemo or fb got lynched in the end moody could claim not to have been on a town waggon.
OTOH, I think the lack of much comment about moody on SirG's part is a lot more telling. Although he asks direct questions of a fair few players who stand out to him, he never directs anything to moody at all.

Madge:
Doesn't come of looking great for the post-claim fb vote. I don't necessarily agree with Dr Ug's argument, but I definitely want to see how she reacts before saying anything that may put words in her mouth.

Something that no-one's mentioned yet:
How did moody end up dead anyway?

frogman:
Flip is indie, which could mean almost anything. Since moody was explicitly Mafia, though, we can probably draw the conclusion that frogman was the Mafia kill. As such (since Mafia couldn't know town from indie), it bears looking at his posts to see why scum may have marked him for death.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Vytron » Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:34 pm UTC

Suzaku wrote:Something that no-one's mentioned yet:
How did moody end up dead anyway?


Probably a vigilante. You... er, we are welcome?

I agree with Carlington on Madge, I'd not mind seeing her lynched, I thought she was a better lynch yesterday, and FB agreed with me. But my consternation comes from she missing Moody's death. If she didn't miss it, things would be different, so probably it's better to lynch Sir first.

Definitively, lynch Madge if Sir is scum.

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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:39 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:
Suzaku wrote:Something that no-one's mentioned yet:
How did moody end up dead anyway?


Probably a vigilante.

What makes you say that? Serial killer seems to be a much more common role. The vigs I've seen are generally one-shot, and I wouldn't expect a one-shot vig to shoot this early.

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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby Madge » Thu Oct 22, 2015 1:13 am UTC

Madge wrote:However, if freezeblade is scum, and ressurected Vytron as scum, then maybe this is FB's way of getting Vytron out.

So, I'd like to go back to the coin flip - let's give it the possibility of testing my crazy hypothesis.



From the same post you quoted A from. That's where I said I was worried. Sorry I wasn't more explicit.

My suspicion / not suspicion of Diemo relates to my previous role in my other life, and I am not allowed to say more on it. I am very sorry. The mod has explicitly disallowed it. And my suspicion was pretty unfounded anyway.

I am happy to lynch between SirG and Diemo.

I think it would be weird for an SK to target moody since the last minute vote seems like a tell that a vig might pick up on.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby Vytron » Thu Oct 22, 2015 3:19 am UTC

Madge wrote:I think it would be weird for an SK to target moody since the last minute vote seems like a tell that a vig might pick up on.


This.

I don't see why a one-shot vig would wait until later, considering they don't know if they'll be mislynched or night-killed so their power goes to waste, a N2 kill makes sense.

If this is an SK, why would we not get more kills N1? If this was a doctor, I wonder if it'd be worth it to state who was protected N1.

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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 2

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Oct 22, 2015 3:35 am UTC

Vytron wrote:If this was a doctor, I wonder if it'd be worth it to state who was protected N1.

Definitely worth considering. But would that information be worth outing the doctor? Assuming we have mafia and a serial killer, knowing who the doctor protected N1 wouldn't necessarily confirm them as town. The doctor might have accidentally protected one scum party from another.

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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Vytron » Thu Oct 22, 2015 3:39 am UTC

Ah, good point, so a doctor wouldn't confirm anything.

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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby ElectricHaze » Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:26 am UTC

I'm not sure how big of a strike against Diemo the moody vote is. It is possible that he voted that way against 2 town because of freezeblades claim regarding vytrons res. freezeblade implied that he was town power or knew about the res power or possible had a res themselves, so would be a high priority target for scum.

I have to do some serious re-evaluating. I was pretty happy with the freezeblade lynch and I was suspicious of RR before he died, so I'm not exactly trusting my reads anymore.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby mpolo » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:07 pm UTC

Sorry. I got a little busy today, and it was easier to post initial flavor info in the other game than do real analysis here. But I'll take at least a little time to try something now…

As I see it, there seems to be a certain level of connection between moody and SirGabriel, in that SirGabriel seemed to be actively avoiding any interaction with moody and moody moved his vote from SirGabriel to decide the lynch. As some have pointed out, this wasn't really protecting SirGabriel, as he was in no real danger, though it did lead to a town lynch.

The other connection possibility is Diemo, whom moody actively chose not to vote so as to try to guarantee freezeblade's lynch. Knowing that fb is town would give at least some suspicion to Diemo, but does assume that our scumdars were working yesterday when Diemo was proposed as a lynch candidate.

I want to look more closely at the interactions yesterday, as basing on other people's analysis is just inviting them to railroad me, so I will wait until tomorrow at least before voting.
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:10 pm UTC

I'm not seeing how anything I did could be taken as actively avoiding interaction with moody. I'll admit that I have not actively tried to interact with moody, but I could say the same about a lot of players.

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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Sungura » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:15 pm UTC

Votals
2 - Sir Gabriel (Vytron, Dr Ug)
1 - Madge (Carlington)


A loud noise was heard and they ran to the entrance only to find it collapsed! Oh no! They're never getting out of here now, and there are murderers about! So some decided to scout out a canyon passage they thought might lead to an upper level, and another entrance, perhaps. Others thought it best to dig out the entrance. Either way, they are stuck here until they figure out what is going on.

Day Three deadline: Wednesday evening, October 28th.
"Would you rather fight a Sungura-sized spider or 1000 spider-sized Sunguras?" -Zarq
she/her/they/snug/gender neutral

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Vytron
Posts: 429
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Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Vytron » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:36 pm UTC

Okay, I guess I want to hear Sir talking about all the players that also avoided connecting with moody.

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SirGabriel
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Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Oct 24, 2015 2:12 am UTC

Vytron wrote:Okay, I guess I want to hear Sir talking about all the players that also avoided connecting with moody.

Sorry if I was unclear, I meant that moody is not the only player with whom I have not actively sought interaction.

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Vytron
Posts: 429
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Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

Re: Mafia Cave - Day 3 - flowstone of blood

Postby Vytron » Sat Oct 24, 2015 3:39 am UTC

Oh, in that case, sorry, but Moody vote on you is all I have.

Madge: So, how exactly did you miss Moody's death?


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