Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - Game Over

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Opus_723
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Opus_723 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 6:44 am UTC

Oh wow, I misread the setup earlier. I thought there were 5 town players total, but that's just the vanilla town players added on after the matrix roles. My first post was completely wrong. So much for being helpful.

I assumed SDK's vote for username5243 was random, since the latter hadn't even posted yet. But maybe SDK should clarify. He's the only one voting so far, after all.

We're well into the second real-life day now, and we still haven't heard from faubiguy, Yablo, adnapemit, or moody7277. Hopefully things will pick up once the weekend is over.

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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby adnapemit » Mon Oct 26, 2015 8:51 am UTC

I'm sure SDK's vote was mostly random.
More people should randomly vote.

Vote SDK.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Echo244 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 9:37 am UTC

username is first in the player list, making him a likely target for early "random" votes.

adnapemit's (or should that be s'adnapemit?) request for more random votes is sooo tempting to follow up with "OK! Vote: adnapemit" but I'm going to pass up on that open goal. I usually prefer setup discussion to random voting but there's not really much to discuss, so I'll join in.

Vote: moody7277
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby SDK » Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:25 pm UTC

Opus_723 wrote:Let's see if I can be helpful at all: If I understand the setup correctly, then mass claim doesn't really work unless we've lost three vanilla towns already. Then, looking at the matrix, there could only be one vanilla town left. At least one of the scum would be forced to claim a power role and step into the spotlight, right? This is my first game, so let me know if I'm being thick!

Welcome to mafia, and... you're being thick*. Not just because you miscounted the number of vanilla town, but because a mass claim isn't directly used to catch scum (most of the time). That was the misconception that led me to make that comment. What it does do is tell us who the power roles are. We can assume the scum will claim vanilla - if they don't we narrow down our lynch pool to two (the claim and the counterclaim). If we get exactly two power role claims out of everyone, now we have two confirmed town to work with. Maybe more if we've got a tracker, doctor or cop.

New question for the newbies: At what point should we mass claim to confirm those people as town? Surely it would be helpful to have confirmed townies Day 1, right?

*Not really. I made that comment about mass claims because I was curious if anyone would figure this out.

Opus_723 wrote:I'd like to hear more opinions from people on the setup first.

What were you hoping to get out of this question?

username5243 wrote:Yep. Potential power roles, but there's always 2 mafaia. I have no opinion on voting either.

username, can you explain basically this entire post? All three sentences are confusing to me since I don't know what you're referring to.

Opus_723 wrote:I assumed SDK's vote for username5243 was random, since the latter hadn't even posted yet. But maybe SDK should clarify. He's the only one voting so far, after all.

My votes are always serious. Which doesn't necessarily mean I want to lynch who I'm voting for. :wink:
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby moody7277 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:41 pm UTC

My impressions of the setups

2 & 4: Simplest setups, only one town PR (power role). The cop's result is a more transparent result as a jailkeeper, if successful can either have protected the target or stopped the goon.

1 & 5: Two town PR balanced by the scum roleblocker. Note 5 indicates a low probability scenario in setup 1 that would be interesting.

3 & 6: Tracker would be pretty definitive because the only other active role in these setups is doctor, and that wouldn't end up with a dead body.

Put me in the column of mass claim only being useful later on. Scum would most likely just claim VT (vanilla townie) right now.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Echo244 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:05 pm UTC

Reasonably sensible comments from moody, if unspectacular. Neutral read. I hate random voting anyway.

Unvote

In response to SDK's question... no, confirmed townies D1 are probably dead N1, especially if they're the power roles because then they're neutralised. Mass claim could be useful later on, but not now. Of course, I could be wrong; I'm new.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Yablo » Mon Oct 26, 2015 5:00 pm UTC

Before I read the rest of the thread, I prepared for my initial post by re-reading and analyzing the setup. moody7277 pretty much nailed my analysis, so I won't bother restating. This is only my third game, but I'm already developing a negative impression of mass claims, at least early on. It seems to turn the game from one of analysis and misdirection into more of a popularity contest or political election. Likewise, I'm not a fan of random voting. It does get discussion jump-started, but it seems to build grudges, too. Also, I find chaos to really only benefit the mafia early on.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby SDK » Mon Oct 26, 2015 6:12 pm UTC

Random votes do not result in chaos. People vote so that there's something to read. Eventually someone sees something they take seriously and the game starts in earnest. That is ultimately the goal of random voting - to get us to the starting line.

You said a lot about Mafia in general, but not much about this game in particular. Is there any behaviour so far that you find troubling? Anyone you're inclined to trust?
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby username5243 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:09 pm UTC

SDK wrote:My votes are always serious. Which doesn't necessarily mean I want to lynch who I'm voting for. :wink:


SDK, can you explain this? There's no jester or lyncher or anyone who wants someone to end up lynched in this game...You're looking suspicious...

Vote SDK

And that probably makes two, which is rather risky now, but I may unvote later...
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Yablo » Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:23 pm UTC

SDK wrote:You said a lot about Mafia in general, but not much about this game in particular. Is there any behaviour so far that you find troubling? Anyone you're inclined to trust?

It's still really early, but I'm inclined to trust moody7277 based solely on the fact that his analysis matched mine. That's not enough for serious trust, obviously, but it's all I've seen so far. Nothing has really seemed troubling yet, but I'll give username a little time. He tends to make things interesting. Trying to follow his logic can sometimes be like turning Pin the Tail on the Donkey into a drinking game. Still, whether I like his methods or not, he's been vindicated in the end game.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby SDK » Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:42 pm UTC

username5243 wrote:
SDK wrote:My votes are always serious. Which doesn't necessarily mean I want to lynch who I'm voting for. :wink:


SDK, can you explain this? There's no jester or lyncher or anyone who wants someone to end up lynched in this game...You're looking suspicious...

Vote SDK

And that probably makes two, which is rather risky now, but I may unvote later...

I know you read my post. Please answer my question.


Your vote is a weapon as well as a tool. Sometimes I wield it as one without the other, but most often it's both. I don't want to lynch anyone until I get a better idea of who scum actually is, but that's not going to stop me from voting. Votes are way too useful to wait for certainty.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby SDK » Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:42 pm UTC

Hmm, why do you think two votes on me is risky?
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby moody7277 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 8:02 pm UTC

Echo244 wrote:Reasonably sensible comments from moody, if unspectacular.


Spectacular is for when the bodies start hitting the floor and we get flips.

username5243 -- bit of role spec, "no opinion on voting", votes SDK, and concerned it's his second. I'm not sure if this is overreaction from not having played with SDK before. Neutral, but with a elevated interest level.

Yablo -- townie vibe off him. probably partially due to him agreeing with me

adnapemit -- pro random vote, votes SDK. a little odd, but nothing against her yet. neutral

Echo244 -- anti-claim, random votes me, unvotes after my setup spec. slightly townie

faubiguy -- nothing since confirm post. neutral

Opus_723 -- some setup spec, was looking for more content. townie

SDK -- opening vote on username. couple of questions for other people with continued discussion on username

bessie -- anti-claim, couple of questions. slightly townie.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby faubiguy » Mon Oct 26, 2015 10:46 pm UTC

Just realized I had forgotten about this game. I'm here now.

I agree against mass claiming, since mafia would just claim vanilla townie, and town power role(s) would either reveal themselves as a nightkill target or also claim vanilla to avoid doing so. It could be useful once were down to a few players who all know which setup was chosen, but definitely not on day 1.

There's some role speculation and some discussion about random voting, but I don't see much to respond to, so I'll add another random vote to the pile.
Vote Yablo

Username is catching my attention, but isn't acting much different than when he was town in the last 2 games. Aside from that no-one seems especially townie or scummy to me yet.

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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby bessie » Tue Oct 27, 2015 3:10 am UTC

Great, it looks like we have a lot of activity!

Opus_723, don’t worry about misreading the setup. This is a newbie game so we’re here to learn/help others learn how to play. If you have a newbie/gameplay question, you can just ask and someone will answer it (I was actually glad to see moody7277 signed up for this game because he has always been helpful to newbies). I misunderstand stuff all the time, and I have been known to misread my role PM on more than one occasion. This setup is really well balanced so we should have a good game no matter which number was chosen. It will be nice if we have 1, 3, 5, or 6 so more players have an opportunity to play power roles.

I don’t do random voting. When I place a vote, it will be serious.

Mass claims…what SDK said. I am interested in hearing everyone’s responses to his question about mass claims, so please answer if you have not yet done so.

username5243, both SDK and I asked you questions, and you haven’t responded to any of them. But you did question SDK, expressed suspicion, and placed a second vote on him. Right now, you are looking very suspicious to me. Please respond to the questions that have been directed at you.

Yablo wrote:This is only my third game, but I'm already developing a negative impression of mass claims, at least early on. It seems to turn the game from one of analysis and misdirection into more of a popularity contest or political election. Likewise, I'm not a fan of random voting. It does get discussion jump-started, but it seems to build grudges, too. Also, I find chaos to really only benefit the mafia early on.

This is a very good observation, but I don’t think I agree. I'll hold off on my opinion of mass claims for a little while, because I want to give the remainder of the new players an opportunity to answer SDK’s question. I will say that while I don’t do random voting myself, I have sometimes found it useful in my player analysis. Yablo, how long do you think the random voting stage should last?

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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Opus_723 » Tue Oct 27, 2015 3:38 am UTC

SDK wrote:
Opus_723 wrote:I'd like to hear more opinions from people on the setup first.

What were you hoping to get out of this question?


Just the sort of analysis that moody7277 provided. This setup is simple, but it's not completely closed, so I was hoping a more experienced player could provide some insight.

As to the usefulness of random voting: I agree that they might generate reactions, but it mostly seems like people just ignore them. Random voting on D1 strikes me as a good way to fake constructive gameplay without providing more than a sentence or two for other players to read. That's why I didn't like the first random votes by SDK and adnapemit. They got to vote and feign productivity while not really putting words down. SDK has since provided some more meaningful discussion, which I like better. adnapemit is still riding on a random vote and little else.

I like that moody7277 provided reads on people in addition to his setup analysis. I think there's enough content for others to do the same now.

moody7277 -- Provided setup discussion (maybe I just like this so much because I asked for it) and player reads. I think this was the most content out of anyone's first post. Townie.

Echo244 -- Seems townie, but maybe that's just because she shares my dislike of random votes. I can forgive the momentary vote on moody7277 since she took it back after his setup analysis.

Bessie -- Slightly informative first post. Town-ish.

Yablo -- Solidly neutral to me. Agreeing with moody7277's analysis and the general anti-claim vibe going around. Needs more content.

SDK -- Random voted with little content, but became more engaged in discussion later on. May be playing the mentor a little too heavily, in order to see townie? Neutral-ish for me.

adnapemit -- Random vote and little else, as noted above. Slightly scummy, but she could change that for me by talking more like SDK did.

faubiguy -- May have forgotten about the game, but it's also very convenient that he only replied once every else had provided content. He pretty much just agreed with everyone else and random voted.

username5243 -- Expressed reservations about doubling up the vote on SDK, but did it anyway. That seems sketchy to me. He also claims to be voting somewhat seriously, but I don't follow his reasoning. SDK made it fairly clear what he hoped to accomplish by random voting, even if I don't agree with that strategy. Most scummy read so far.

Looking back at my list, I guess I'm reading early votes as scummy. Maybe that's wrong, but I'm having trouble shaking it. This list could change quite a bit if we had second posts from some people.

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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Opus_723 » Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:04 am UTC

EBWOP:

Bessie posted while I was writing mine, so I'd like to respond before I go to bed.

bessie wrote:Opus_723, don’t worry about misreading the setup. This is a newbie game so we’re here to learn/help others learn how to play. If you have a newbie/gameplay question, you can just ask and someone will answer it (I was actually glad to see moody7277 signed up for this game because he has always been helpful to newbies). I misunderstand stuff all the time, and I have been known to misread my role PM on more than one occasion. This setup is really well balanced so we should have a good game no matter which number was chosen. It will be nice if we have 1, 3, 5, or 6 so more players have an opportunity to play power roles.


Thanks for that. I'm having a lot of fun, I just felt a little embarrassed that I made a mistake in my first post!

bessie wrote:Mass claims…what SDK said. I am interested in hearing everyone’s responses to his question about mass claims, so please answer if you have not yet done so.


This was the first thing I tried to sort out, but it's exactly what I fumbled in my first post, so I'll try again. With 5-6 vanilla townies, massclaiming seems next to useless for catching scum. Pretty much everyone who has expressed a thought about massclaim seems to agree with this.

I can see the benefit to selective claiming once power roles have some information to share, but I don't see how everyone claiming in mass would help. Since we can't out scum that way, I just feel like we'd be painting targets on useful players for a night kill. I'm totally open to selective claiming further into the game, though, if the role feels like they have valuable information to share.

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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Suzaku » Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:40 am UTC

Votals:

SDK - 2 (adnapemit, username5243)
username5243 - 1 (SDK)
Yablo - 1 (faubiguy)

Not voting (5) - Yablo, Echo244, Opus_723, moody7277, bessie

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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby adnapemit » Tue Oct 27, 2015 8:12 am UTC

Unvote (SDK)
Two votes for SDK would only be risky if others decided that even though one of those votes was made without any reason at all that they would all decide to vote for SDK.
As faubiguy stated mass claims are good for working out who is mafia later in the game. But claiming anything other than town just gives the mafia targets.
Mafia are going to aim to kill a town and unless they mess up real bad they won't be killing a mafia because unlike everyone else, they know who is town.
If there were more roles then a slightly earlier mass claiming might give more opportunity to catch someone lying but since there are at most only 3 players with special roles it wouldn't be helpful.
I support random voting because even getting reactions on if random voting is good or bad is useful. Any opinions on anything are good as they might differ slightly depending on what your role is and what benefits you the most in the game.

moody7277 : moody7277 finding Yablo townie because of agreement(even if only as partially the reason) doesn't seem like something from an experienced player. Suspicious.

Echo244 : "confirmed townies D1 are probably dead N1", forgetting that everyone is a confirmed townie to mafia. Sort of townish.

Bessie : Encouraging discussion. Neutral reading.

Yablo: Doesn't want to build grudges. Neutral reading.

SDK : SDK is always suspicious. Neutral reading.

faubiguy : Not much to say. Neutral reading.

username5243: Added second vote to SDK but had more reason to do so than any other vote made so far.

Opus_723:Not experienced. Neutral reading.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Echo244 » Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:09 am UTC

adnapemit wrote:Echo244 : "confirmed townies D1 are probably dead N1", forgetting that everyone is a confirmed townie to mafia.


Everyone is a confirmed townie to mafia. But mafia would be targetting the townies that would be confirmed town to everyone else. Which would increase uncertainty and give them more murkiness to hide among.

Anyway, we have no confirmed town, so it's all a big hypothetical.

I note a couple of people are calling username scummy... I don't disagree but then again I don't think his behaviour is out of the ordinary for him. I'd like answers to those questions from SDK and bessie too.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Yablo » Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:44 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Yablo, how long do you think the random voting stage should last?

I don't care for random voting, personally, and I don't plan to do it. When I vote, it may not be for a strong reason, and it may even just be a feeling, but there will be some reasoning behind it (which I'll provide). I do see the value in random voting, however, and I'll definitely pay attention to how it plays out. We have five-day long Days, so I don't think it'll hurt to throw random votes around for three or four days. By the fifth day at the latest, I'd like to see initial random votes being dropped in favor of (or reinforced by) an actual reason.

Echo244 wrote:I note a couple of people are calling username scummy... I don't disagree but then again I don't think his behaviour is out of the ordinary for him.

username definitely does put off a scummy vibe, but I'd be careful about following a gut feeling on him. He's no different so far this game than he was in the last two, and both of those times he was town. Still, he's a bit of a loose cannon, so if he is town, he's still probably the most likely townie to incite "friendly fire".

username5243 -- As stated above. Neutral, but definitely one to watch.

moody7277 -- Experienced player, good setup analysis but not much else. Slightly townie.

adnapemit -- In favor of random voting, votes SDK, unvotes when username5243 votes SDK. I think that's a perfectly reasonable thing to do, and it's what I'd have done. Slightly townie.

Echo244 -- Says she prefers setup discussion to random voting, places random vote because of lack of discussion, unvotes when moody7277 offers setup analysis, then says she hates random voting anyway. Odd, but not damning. Neutral read.

faubiguy -- Late to the party (which is probably no big deal), basically repeats what others have posted, and then random votes me (again, probably no big deal). Neutral read.

Opus_723 -- Newbie, seems to genuinely be seeking discussion and information. Slightly townie.

SDK -- First random vote, asks questions of others, offers some useful information. Slightly townie.

bessie -- Helpful and encouraging, asks questions and prompts discussion, dog in a witch hat. Slightly townie.

Code: Select all

            Town |--------------------| Mafia
username5243:    |----------[]--------|
moody7277:       |-------[]-----------|
adnapemit:       |-------[]-----------|
Echo244:         |---------[]---------|
faubiguy:        |----------[]--------|
Opus_723:        |-------[]-----------|
SDK:             |--------[]----------|
bessie:          |--------[]----------|
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby username5243 » Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:07 pm UTC

What I meant for my first was, there's almost certainly a power role. There's at least two setups with only one power-role. And I just think that I jumped on the first thing, so:

Unvote SDK

Now, analysis may take a long time, so I don't know if I'll be able to do it...maybe later, if you don't talk too much. And what I meant by "risky" was that we may get others voting for SDK too, and he'd be a power role...but there's also a chance he's scum. There's a slight chance all of us are scum. (Except me, I know I'm not scum, obviously.)
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Yablo » Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:48 pm UTC

There are exactly two Mafiosi, with a 1/3 chance of a single power role, and a 2/3 chance of none. There are exactly seven Townies, with a 1/3 chance of a single power role, and a 2/3 chance of two power roles. In 2/3 of the possible setups, Town has one power role more than Mafia, and in the other 1/3, Town has two more.

We have 9 roles X 6 possible setups = 54 possible roles. Of these 54 roles, 10 are Town power roles, 32 are Vanilla Town roles, 2 are Mafia power roles, and 10 are Vanilla Mafia. Not knowing the setup, that gives us the following chances if a random vote results in a lynch:

Town PR - 18.52%
Vanilla Town - 59.26%
Total Town - 77.78%

Mafia PR - 3.70%
Vanilla Mafia - 18.52%
Total Mafia - 22.22%

I don't expect a random vote to result in a lynch, but if it does, we're about 3.5 times more likely to get a Townie.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Echo244 » Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:18 pm UTC

Ooooh, I like the sliders. Less so being only one notch above username and faubiguy after my halfhearted random vote, but meh, after getting murdered N1 in 102, I'm comfortable there.

Actually, I'll borrow them. Yoink!

Code: Select all

            Town |--------------------| Mafia
username5243:    |-----------[]-------|
moody7277:       |--------[]----------|
adnapemit:       |-------[]-----------|
Yablo:           |-------[]-----------|
faubiguy:        |----------[]--------|
Opus_723:        |-------[]-----------|
SDK:             |---------[]---------|
bessie:          |---------[]---------|


Username: Short posts, not quite clear about "almost certainly a power role" when the Matrix says there must be one. I'd really like to see that longer post from him, even if we do "talk too much" in the meantime.

moody: Sensible discussion of setup, player list plus comments... that's useful info, slightly towny.

adnapemit: Good comments on setup, player list plus comments, towny vibe.

Yablo: Some statistical analysis after posting what he thinks of people, player list plus comments, another towny vibe.

faubiguy: Only one post. Random votes Yablo, calls username scummiest, reponds to SDK's massclaim question... more content needed. What do you make of Yablo's content since your vote?

Opus_723: Chatty posts, player list plus comments, reasonable analysis and questions from a new player, seems towny.

SDK: Interesting interaction with username. This is the closest thing we have to something to talk about, atm. Some probing questions, some broader stuff... Who else interests you? To borrow some phrases, any behaviour so far that you find troubling? Anyone you're inclined to trust?

bessie: Friendly, welcoming, following up much of SDK's guidance, being nice about moody, holding off on answering his questions until new players have offered their thoughts. Perhaps it's now time to share your own opinions, on the players, the massclaim question, SDK's interaction with username? Also, cool hat!

I'd like a player list plus comments from faubiguy, bessie and SDK. If nobody gets to ignore anyone, and we have what everyone thinks of everyone else, it makes it easier for us to start looking for connections, once we have hard intel. Right now, there are gaps there.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby bessie » Wed Oct 28, 2015 2:26 am UTC

Opus_723 wrote: That's why I didn't like the first random votes by SDK and adnapemit.

Opus_723, why do you think SDK’s and adnapemit’s votes were random?

Echo244 wrote:bessie: Friendly, welcoming, following up much of SDK's guidance, being nice about moody, holding off on answering his questions until new players have offered their thoughts. Perhaps it's now time to share your own opinions, on the players, the massclaim question, SDK's interaction with username? Also, cool hat!

Thanks, I like the hat too! About mass claims, I disagreed with Yablo’s earlier observation that mass claiming “seems to turn the game from one of analysis and misdirection into more of a popularity contest or political election” but I didn’t give a reason. I have thought about it since then, and there may be some truth in his comment. But I see mass claims early in the game as detrimental to scum hunting. After a mass claim, the game turns into a technical discussion to try to figure out whose claims can or can’t be proven, and a technical discussion trying to figure out the night actions. For example, let’s say we have the following claims: doctor, tracker, and cop. We will spend the remainder of D1 (and a good part of D2, D3) trying to figure out who is lying. Is it the cop or the tracker? Can’t be the doctor he’s clear in both. But maybe the doctor and the cop are lying. Does anyone want to claim bulletproof? OK, we can figure this out. We’ll have the cop investigate the tracker, the tracker target the doctor… and so on. All actual scumhunting stops. Also, the town must decide who to lynch for all power town claims/counter claims (if two players claim cop) and conflicting claims (like the example above). If town guesses correctly and lynch scum the power town will likely be night killed anyway.

I think mass claims have a place later in the game, when there is more content, some flips, and some investigation results.

bessie wrote:username5243, does your comment “I have no opinion on voting either” refer to random voting? Do you think SDK’s vote for you was a random vote?

bessie wrote:username5243, both SDK and I asked you questions, and you haven’t responded to any of them. But you did question SDK, expressed suspicion, and placed a second vote on him. Right now, you are looking very suspicious to me. Please respond to the questions that have been directed at you.

username5243 wrote:What I meant for my first was, there's almost certainly a power role. There's at least two setups with only one power-role. And I just think that I jumped on the first thing, so:

Unvote SDK

Now, analysis may take a long time, so I don't know if I'll be able to do it...maybe later, if you don't talk too much. And what I meant by "risky" was that we may get others voting for SDK too, and he'd be a power role...but there's also a chance he's scum. There's a slight chance all of us are scum. (Except me, I know I'm not scum, obviously.)


Vote: username5243

Reasons:
1. He hasn’t answered my questions, and he’s been asked twice by me and once by Echo244.
2. He’s discouraging discussion (“if you don’t talk too much”), which is anti town.
3. He is making an excuse for not contributing any content (“analysis may take a long time, so I don’t know if I’ll be able to do it”), which is anti town.

Random voting stage is over. This vote is serious.

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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Opus_723 » Wed Oct 28, 2015 5:53 am UTC

bessie wrote:
Opus_723 wrote: That's why I didn't like the first random votes by SDK and adnapemit.

Opus_723, why do you think SDK’s and adnapemit’s votes were random?


I don't really see what else they could have been? username5243 hadn't even posted yet when SDK voted him. I guess adnapemit could have had some reason to vote SDK based on his one post and his vote, but there wasn't very much in it. She also implied that it was random by saying that more people should random vote. It seemed pretty plain to me. Did you see more to it than that?

Now that adnapemit has posted more, I feel a little better about her. Now faubiguy is the only player with only one post, I think. I'd like faubiguy to speak up and to respond to Echo244's question about Yablo's content.

I agree with bessie's points regarding username5243. He was already at the bottom of my list, and his response hasn't changed that. That being said, Echo244 and Yablo seem to think this is pretty typical behavior from username5243. Since we have a serious vote on username5243, I'd like to hear what they think. Do you two still think this behavior reads neutral for username5243?

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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Echo244 » Wed Oct 28, 2015 10:22 am UTC

I think username's behaviour is unhelpful to town. In previous games, while being town, he's looked extremely scummy (pushing his vote all over the place, starting bandwagons on thin evidence and calling for immediate hammer... I might have had just a tiny bit of glorious fun in getting him lynched...) while being aligned town. So he's been unhelpful whilst being town before, hence while I think he's not helping now, it's not telling us much about his alignment.

username really needs to post something long and informative.

Meanwhile, some good comments from bessie on how power-role-claiming can distract from scumhunting. Obvious which side of the SDK/username divide she's come down on. Some questions for Opus. But no comments on other players - what do you think of, say, Yablo and faubiguy? Scumhunting, in my extremely amateur opinion, works best when we have lots of links to go on.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby moody7277 » Wed Oct 28, 2015 2:51 pm UTC

Opus_723 wrote:username5243 hadn't even posted yet when SDK voted him.


That's pretty much SDK's standard opening move. The target may be random, but the intent is definite. username's response, which is the point of the exercise, was a little odd. Mostly he ignored SDK's follow up questions and then voted SDK with the side note that it was "risky". My interpretation was he was thinking scum might speedlynch with him that close to hammer, which he kind of alludes to in his post unvoting SDK. At this point if I had to vote I would most likely vote username.

I see that Yablo is also a math guy. Looks like after all the separation into categories, it boiled back down to 2 scum versus 7 townies. Voting D1 is always a shot it the dark, but even if you don't have any good suspects, a couple of townie reads can narrow the odds nicely.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby faubiguy » Wed Oct 28, 2015 4:54 pm UTC

So far I've been looking through thread without seeing much to say, but that's clearly not helpful to town, so I'll go ahead and post my impressions of each player.

username5243: Not a lot of content. A vague post at the beginning, OMGUS on SDK (though later unvoted), and may or may not post an explanation/analysis later. The most suspicious to me right now.

moody: Some useful analysis on the setup and players. Leaning town.

adnapemit: Begins with random vote, and some useful discussion later. Mostly neutral, leaning slightly town.

Yablo: Some neutral discussion at the beginning and analysis later. Setup analysis looks correct. Also neutral.

Echo244: Useful analysis and commentary, and acting helpful to town. Looks townie.

Opus_723: Some mistaken setup analysis at the beginning. Contributing a lot to the discussion and being generally helpful. Also looks mostly townie to me.

SDK: Begins with an unexplained vote, then poses some questions and adds more content. Neutral.

bessie: Contributing a lot to discussion and searching out scum. Leaning town.

With regards to random votes, I think they're useful Day 1, as they give town something to discuss besides the setup or things players happen to incidentally say. Discussion almost always benefits the town, and random votes are unlikely to actually lead to a lynch.

If I had to guess scumteam right now, I'd say username and SDK based on how they've been interacting so far, but that's very speculative.

I'm keeping my random vote where it is for now, because I'm not suspicious enough of username yet to add to his bandwagon, and there isn't anyone else who catches my attention enough to vote for.

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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Yablo » Wed Oct 28, 2015 5:10 pm UTC

Opus_723 wrote:That being said, Echo244 and Yablo seem to think this is pretty typical behavior from username5243. Since we have a serious vote on username5243, I'd like to hear what they think. Do you two still think this behavior reads neutral for username5243?

Yeah. This is pretty much how he generally operates. Like I said earlier, he's a loose cannon, and if he's town, he's the townie most likely to cause friendly fire. Assuming for the moment that he's a Townie (because there's a 77.78% chance that he is), he's still likely to be dangerous just by his nature. If I'm not sure of a Mafiosi to lynch, my instinct would be to string up username5243 just to be safe.

Still, while his methods are unorthodox, dangerous, and mildly annoying, they've been effective. Whether it's method in madness or just luck, I don't know. I'm inclined to believe it's luck as I've only seen him in two games.

What it boils down to, I guess, is that while I don't particularly suspect him of scumminess yet, I do think he's the safest random lynch.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby moody7277 » Wed Oct 28, 2015 6:17 pm UTC

7 out of 9 assumes that you know nothing (including whether or not you yourself are town). If you have really good town read on a couple of other players, the odds narrow a bit. Lynching someone who you have a weak town read on just because they are being unhelpful is kind of a last resort thing.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Yablo » Wed Oct 28, 2015 6:57 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:7 out of 9 assumes that you know nothing (including whether or not you yourself are town).

Bah! I knew that. That's what I get for posting before I finish my coffee.

If you have really good town read on a couple of other players, the odds narrow a bit. Lynching someone who you have a weak town read on just because they are being unhelpful is kind of a last resort thing.

I agree, and it may be better to vote "No Lynch" in most cases, however, on my line of Perceived Affiliation, I'm making a distinction between "Slightly Townie" and "Slightly Townie - Unhelpful". I do want to be clear though that I don't think username is being particularly unhelpful at the moment; slightly confusing, and maybe a little dodgy, but not unhelpful.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Yablo » Wed Oct 28, 2015 7:04 pm UTC

Re-reading my earlier post, I should probably clarify: I didn't mean to imply that I'm in favor of a random lynching when all reads are equal. I'm definitely not. What I meant was that if forced to choose between "Slightly Townie" and "Slightly Townie - Unhelpful", I'm going to toss the lasso at the unhelpful one.

Random votes are fine, and they have their uses, but a random lynch is probably the worst thing we could do. The only time it favors the town is when Mafia have a majority in which case, the game is over already.
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby username5243 » Wed Oct 28, 2015 8:27 pm UTC

Okay, I'll analyze if I must...

Echo244: Six posts. Anti-claim because of a high amount of vanilla townies. Reluctantly random-votes, but then unvotes. Gives something about how mafia could play (possibly she is mafia lurking...). Otherwise fairly town.

SDK: Five posts. Mostly grilling me (I meant that there's only two or three power roles, and lots of vanilla townies. Okay?) First to random vote (I hadn't posted yet then). Seems to ask questions of others too. Neutral-scum, probably one of the scummier ones so far. @experienced players: Is this normal for SDK?

Opus_723: Five posts. Newbie. Doesn't random vote because it doesn't give too much info. Posts analysis, however. Town-neutral.

bessie: Three posts, but all fairly long. Mostly grilling me (I meant random voting, and I thought SDK's was random (I hadn't posted yet)). Also doesn't random vote. Looking neutral-scummy (teaming with mafia buddy SDK to lynch me perhaps?)

adnapemit: Only two posts. First containing almost nothing but a random vote, second an analysis. Neutral-town.

moody7277: Four posts. First a setup discussion. Then analyzes other players. Thinks that unhelpful townies are a last resort, and says that it's more or less likely to hit mafia based on what you know. Most likely town.

Yablo: Seven posts, despite starting quite late. Analyzes possible setups, seems to be a math person as noted. Doesn't like random votes, trusts moody. Probably town, but maybe they're a scum team?

faubiguy: Two posts. First says he forgot about the game (excuse?), then guesses a scum team (which isn't right, at least I'm not scum). Random-voted Yablo but doesn't remove it. Slightly scumward of neutral.

So, Yablo and moody may be a scum team (the trusting moody bit from Yablo), and SDK and bessie asking those questions is odd. faubiguy's also being rather quiet, and is doing some scummy things. But even the townier-looking players may in fact be scum. It's probably been done, a mafioso trying to be the towniest of the bunch.

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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby username5243 » Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:46 am UTC

*taps foot*

Where is everybody? We've got mafia to lynch!
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby adnapemit » Thu Oct 29, 2015 12:11 pm UTC

Username still hasn't answered any of the questions. I don't know why, there is more suspicion placed on him the more he delays.
As for how he has been acting, to me it feels more restrained and thought out than previous games. Is it because he is mafia or just improving his playing style?
I am against lynching username at the moment, because too many people are suggesting to lynch him even if he is town.
A better option would be if he is mafia to try and lynch whoever he is working with or if he isn't mafia to work out who is trying to get him lynched.
Does anyone have any theories?

Yablo and moody7277 are still in very strong agreement on thing.
There hasn't been much posting in the past few days. SDK hasn't posted for quite a while.
Opus_723 is new but are they also learning as mafia?
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Echo244 » Thu Oct 29, 2015 12:40 pm UTC

Yablo and moody are agreeing strongly on things but they're things I mostly find agreeable too, so I'm not reading "scumbuddies" in to that.

Opus is new but talkative, in contrast to the 101 game where several of the new players with town roles were initially quiet and watchful. It's possible to look at that as potentially informative behaviour, but without any meta, I wouldn't make that call. Some new players just start talkative.

username is an easy bandwagon for scum to push (she says, from experience), so I'm in with the caution on lynching him. He's posted player list and reads, which is good; not answered the questions, which is bad, slightly odd otherwise (quiet for a while and then wanting other people to suddenly respond to him)... I'd still be OK with his lynching as either mafia or oddest town player and so least-bad-mislynch, if that makes sense, but I'm not voting for him at this point. I'd rather lynch someone more scummy, but I don't see a good candidate yet.

If we're looking at who's trying to get him lynched, the most serious vote on him seems to be bessie. I'd like to see her respond to his list of reads; does that improve things? Or is his failure to answer questions still too problematic?

(She says, noting a couple of questions of hers - opinions on Yablo and faubiguy, and bessie hasn't posted since they were raised).
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Suzaku » Thu Oct 29, 2015 1:36 pm UTC

Votals:

username5243 - 2 (SDK, bessie)
Yablo - 1 (faubiguy)

Not voting (6) - Yablo, Echo244, Opus_723, moody7277, adnapemit, username5243

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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby username5243 » Thu Oct 29, 2015 7:08 pm UTC

Okay, not much to read...Yep, SDK and bessie are working to get me lynched. SDK looks like he's doing it more, and bessie has done some other stuff anyway, so I'll:

Vote SDK

SDK: I meant that there were lots of potential power roles, but not too many in one game (a max of two or three.) You haven't posted in three days... (He's still around - he was playing some games in the main forum just yesterday, maybe I distracted him from the subforum?)

bessie: My comment meant random votes (only a few people had posted there), and SDK was random then (but his non-removal makes me question it...). I hadn't even post yet!

Now, I'll be lynched at deadline if no one removes their vote, so I encourage them to (or others to vote on people.)
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Re: Matrix6 Redux Take 2 - D1

Postby Opus_723 » Thu Oct 29, 2015 9:12 pm UTC

Username finally answered the questions, but he sure took his time, even posting a contentless "I'm waiting" post instead of taking the chance to answer. That just seems... weird? I would think scum would act faster to clear themselves, but I also think town wouldn't avoid the questions so hard in the first place.

Just to make sure he sees this:

Question for username5243:
Username, can you explain why you waited so long to answer those questions even though you had time to 'tap your foot'?


Other notes:

Bessie and SDK: I would also really like to hear from you two now that username has answered your questions.

Echo: Here I was feeling guilty for not posting yesterday. I didn't realize I was being particularly chatty, but I think it's just more fun to be involved.

Yablo: His posts jumped out at me while I was catching up. He offers that username is the safest random lynch and points out that his behavior is dangerous even if he's town. But he walks it back really hard when moody criticizes the idea, even double posting to clarify and pointing out that username is "not unhelpful", which seems contradictory to his previous post. I don't know if this reads like a newbie overreacting to a rebuke or like scum edging toward a lynch and then backing off when he gets noticed. It felt funny, though. Either way, the interaction makes it seem unlikely to me that Yablo and moody are a scum team, as adnapemit seems to be implying. I think at least one of them is town.


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