Smalltown Werewolf PYP - F is for Finished!

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weiyaoli
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby weiyaoli » Sun Nov 15, 2015 6:23 am UTC

Okay, so my thoughts on the major stuff that's happened so far:

RE: Suzaku:
I don't really think there's much more to add on top of what other people have said. Personally, I would have withheld my kill either way N1 as that role, but having some investigation results on Suzaku is useful before people power them up to be a full vig.

RE: Snark:
I just feel his "plan" was incredibly fake. First of all, it was completely useless - I don't think any druid would have been convinced by his argument. But most importantly, we don't necessarily know there are any druids in the game at all! So it spreads confusion instead of actually achieving anything useful. Why is he then suspicious of people who opposed his plan? Why would werewolves or aliens want to oppose his plan? Wasting lynches on druids is pro-werewolves and pro-aliens.

Snark wrote:I'd FOS the people who opposed the plan because it's better for scum if druids are hidden and spread lots of confusion trying to get themselves killed one way or the other. On the other hand, maybe most people would take what I said at face value and think that I would actually support lynching them after they claimed.

Completely disagree.

I think Snark was trying to propose an antitown plan, and then had to backpedal after being called out on it.

FoS: Snark

RE: Law:

I disagree with their quick vote for RR and find it a bit scummy, but I'm not sure why some people in the thread (e.g.):

patzer wrote:Okay, this is quite difficult to follow. It seems to me that we should lynch Lawrencelot, because he's the only player who jumped out at me as being scummy. But I could well have overlooked something, so I'll try to have a look back at the game and analyse each of the 26 players soon.


That seems incredibly suspicious to me as well - there's been plenty of stuff that's happened already to be suspicious of, and it seems opportunistic to be jumping on the player who happens to have the role that's incredible against werewolves as their ONLY suspicion.

IGMEOY: Lawrencelot
FoS: Patzer

RE:opus

I agree with stuff sungura and YOLOSWAG have said about opus. I don't have anything more to add that they haven't said already.

FoS: opus

RE: Aliens vs Werewolves:

Sure aliens are more dangerous right now, but how do people propose we "focus" on aliens D1 with no info? We should be looking at the most scummy people no matter what on D1, so unless someone makes a blatant alien slip, there's no reason to overly neglect to look for other scum at the same time. There are some people who pinged me who did this, but I want to keep quiet about them for now to see how they continue posting.

I also think jimbob is fairly suspicious right now. I agree with YOLOSWAG that people who waste time rolespeculating are scummy, because it makes them look active without doing any actual scumhunting. If you look at their last few posts >90% was only busy work, summing up things and doing role speculation instead of looking at suspicious people in more detail. They've posted a reads list at the end, but only attached very brief one line summary to each read. They said that Lawrencelot was the most scummy person to them, but avoids voting for them. When we require 13 votes for majority lynch, 3 is hardly a wagon. It reads more to me scum who is afraid of ending up on a town wagon, so wants to avoid voting for them until it becomes more clear if other people are up for mislynching that person.

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle

with Opus a close second.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby frogman » Sun Nov 15, 2015 8:14 am UTC

Research proposal: investigate Suzaku

I apologize for not having a ton to say - I've been very busy this week and this weekend. There are a lot of things going on in the thread that I don't really know where to begin, but hopefully at some point I'll have a chance to sit down and write out my thoughts. If someone has something specific that they want me to give my thoughts on right now I'd be happy to, but otherwise don't expect a lot of analysis for the next two days or so.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby mpolo » Sun Nov 15, 2015 8:50 am UTC

weiyaoli wrote:Sure aliens are more dangerous right now, but how do people propose we "focus" on aliens D1 with no info? We should be looking at the most scummy people no matter what on D1, so unless someone makes a blatant alien slip, there's no reason to overly neglect to look for other scum at the same time. There are some people who pinged me who did this, but I want to keep quiet about them for now to see how they continue posting.


The only major "focus" on aliens possible (that I can see) would be for our Drug-taking dog. He has a "baseline" werewolf and a "baseline" alien that he can check to understand his results. He could choose to investigate only one of them (essentially getting an "Alien" or "Not Alien" result on two people) or both of them (essentially getting a "Town", "Alien" or "Werewolf" result on one person). Otherwise, I think you are correct, and we need to hunt scum, and hope that we get us some aliens.
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Lawrencelot
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Lawrencelot » Sun Nov 15, 2015 12:07 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote:Conclusion: in their interaction with me, these players look town to me: Sabrar, Snark, Diemo, jimbob, SirGabriel
These look scummy: crucialityfactor, ConMan, patzer, Vytron, mpolo
These look neutral: Suzaku, moody

Ok I'm going to take a look at the scummy players from here, just to limit myself.

crucialityfactor:
-Fks up Snark's druid plan by being logical. I found it funny, if nothing else.
-Thinks roadierich is not werewolf/alien because he didn't know that roles are random.
-Was not sure what to think of me.
@crucialityfactor: what are your thoughts about me now? Please vote for me or someone else you find more scummy.

Conman:
-thinks we should all vote Suzaku if we know his alignment. Doesn't do it (probably because he doesn't know his alignment)
-Thinks my move on roadierich was a cheap move, even though after some discussion he might have agreed it was the right decision.
-Reveals inactive players, asking them to post. This is good, the way he deals with inactive players looks very townie.

mpolo:
-Votes and unvotes Suzaku
-Thinks my action was troubling but doesn't take action.
@mpolo: Please vote for someone. Who is the most scummy?

patzer:
-Votes djehutynakht for not reading Conman's role correctly.
-Votes me after just repeating others, not a very convincing vote.
-Doesn't like Sungura's vote for Opus.
@patzer: why not?
-Thinks I'm the only scummy player and is therefore happy to lynch me. That doesn't sound like it came from a town person.

Vytron:
-Actively proposes to vote Suzaku.
-Votes me, with a typo in his reasoning, out of nowhere.
-Gives a defence to my suspicion of him. Blames it on being busy. I actually believe him. The defence is good too, better than last time I suspected him and he was actually scum.

Just noticed Roadierich has still not posted.
@Mod: Could you prod Roadierich please?

Then these two players since they were under pressure too:
Opus_723:
-'Nervous' about turning Suzaku into a vig.
-This one's interesting:
My role seems to be useful for self-preservation, but that's about it. If anyone can think of a helpful way I could use it, let me know, but I don't really see it as anything than lynch avoidance.

Fos: Opus_723
If you read his role and come to that conclusion, that is very scummy. Or he accidentally posted lynch instead of kill, which can be a scumslip maybe? I don't know.
-Does vote Suzaku, though he prefers him to be investigated first.
-Votes Snark for not voting Suzaku, though Snark is voteless. Then unvotes.

Snark:
-Starts with role thoughts, like so many other players.
-Forms a Druid plan. I understood where it came from, but Druids are the least of our worries. Still, I liked the idea.
-Fake-votes me.

So here are my new reads on these particular players:
Scummy: patzer, Opus_723, crucialityfactor, mpolo
Neutral: Conman, Vytron
Town: Snark

I think patzer and Opus_723 are the scummiest ones, and I'm happy to vote either of them. Mpolo needs to post more first.

Vote: patzer

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Znirk
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Znirk » Sun Nov 15, 2015 12:16 pm UTC

weiyaoli wrote:RE: Snark:
I just feel his "plan" was incredibly fake. First of all, it was completely useless - I don't think any druid would have been convinced by his argument. But most importantly, we don't necessarily know there are any druids in the game at all! So it spreads confusion instead of actually achieving anything useful. Why is he then suspicious of people who opposed his plan? Why would werewolves or aliens want to oppose his plan? Wasting lynches on druids is pro-werewolves and pro-aliens.

Snark wrote:I'd FOS the people who opposed the plan because it's better for scum if druids are hidden and spread lots of confusion trying to get themselves killed one way or the other. On the other hand, maybe most people would take what I said at face value and think that I would actually support lynching them after they claimed.

Completely disagree.

I think Snark was trying to propose an antitown plan, and then had to backpedal after being called out on it.

Hmmm. I half-feel like I'm overthinking a dead horse here, but:

Snark proposes a strange plan where he promises that in exchange for information, town will actively play to lose (not only wasting lynchage, but handing the game to the druids and playing for second place at best). Claims that druid and town win conditions are "compatible" (presumably meaning that a druid win doesn't end the game).

Then, when called on to explain, encourages people to think about who benefits from knowing the druids:
Snark wrote:Think about how the druids benefit from claiming. Then think about how town benefits from the druids claiming.

... Then think about how werewolves who, like town, want kill economy, benefit from the druids claiming. It's an obvious next step.

A bit after that:
Snark wrote:it's better for scum if druids are hidden and spread lots of confusion trying to get themselves killed one way or the other. On the other hand, maybe most people would take what I said at face value and think that I would actually support lynching them after they claimed.

... which again raises the question of what helps scum, and how much confusion comes from hidden druids vs. the confusion from possibly several false druid claims. It also nudges the reader towards the idea of not taking Snark's words at face value.

Put together, this looks a bit deliberate. What if Snark wants to look wolfish? Apart from the jester option, he might be an alien trying to look so obviously Wolf that the town defers dealing with him until after the alien problem is resolved.

Again, it feels like I'm making a lot out of a little here (but isn't that what mafiwolf is all about?). Nevertheless I would encourage someone with an investigation ability to take a closer look at Snark tonight.

Still rereading. How urgent is it that we vote? Snark, Opus and Lawrence are the people I doubt most at the moment, but that's still heavily influenced by other (possibly scummy) people's posted opinion.

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Lawrencelot
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Lawrencelot » Sun Nov 15, 2015 12:59 pm UTC

Dude, Snark was just faking everything to lure the druids to claim. It was a trap. You should read everything in that context and give your opinion about that, not about what he literally said.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Znirk » Sun Nov 15, 2015 1:08 pm UTC

I get that it was a trap; which, by the way, is what Snark literally said. I'm saying the trap had next to no chance of succeeding unless both druids are morons, and am considering whether it was deliberatly inept.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - *SIGNUPS CLOSED*

Postby Znirk » Sun Nov 15, 2015 2:08 pm UTC

Misnomer wrote:Ulysses the Undersea Explorer (Opus_723)
As an Undersea Explorer, Ulysses has never been one for spending much time on land. In fact, he’s already planning his next aquatic adventure! ONCE during the game, Ulysses may post in the game thread ‘DIVE DIVE DIVE!’ and immediately disappear underwater. This has the effect of temporarily removing him from the game until the start of the next day: all votes on him are removed, he cannot post for the remainder of the day, and he cannot be targeted or use any other action of his own that night. This ability cannot be used on Day 6 unless the alien faction has been eliminated.

Rule question: Does this imply that we will be told when the aliens are eliminated? Or can Ulysses try diving on day 6, and the attempt will fail if there are any aliens left?

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Znirk » Sun Nov 15, 2015 2:41 pm UTC

Okay ... summary time (I gather it's bad look busy by posting my notes?)

Lawrencelot looks better on rereading. Muting the gangster without discussion was weird, but I'll go with the assumption that he was having a teenage moment (in the "I'm the centre of the universe, how could anyone possibly disagree with me" sense) for now. Will watch further developments.

I still find myself agreeing with Sungura and HBC&Lawrencelot that Opus_723 has had two separate episodes of acting fishy. The "lynch avoidance" slip-up I might have bought from anyone else owing to possible confusion with Sungura's (day-only) hide power; but Opus really should have read and remembered her own role more clearly than that. Then there's the bit where she goes on what looks like an over-intense defensive, is called out on it by Sungura pointing out that defensiveness can look scummy, and responds, with an extremely un-defensive post on the general order of "OK, good point".

On that basis, combined with "well, I got nuthin else":

vote Opus_723 (Ulysses the Undersea Explorer)

Looking forward to Opus' response.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby crucialityfactor » Sun Nov 15, 2015 4:20 pm UTC

@lawrencelot Don't have much time for a full post. But I really poured over your posts yesterday and I was left with the impression that it was more your aggressive arrogance that rubbed me the wrong way. I don't think you are scum but I do think you have something extra going on with your actions. Maybe that's just the way you play. I was never one to just snap into quick decisions and it always irked me when someone else did. I understand the utility and need for boldness on day 1 otherwise things don't end up going anywhere.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Sungura » Sun Nov 15, 2015 4:54 pm UTC

Znirk wrote:I get that it was a trap; which, by the way, is what Snark literally said. I'm saying the trap had next to no chance of succeeding unless both druids are morons, and am considering whether it was deliberatly inept.

Actually, maybe it did work. The roles say that there may be 2 Druids, aka they may not exist. But you specifically said "both Druids". I know it isn't much but I find the phraseology weird. Originally I thought there were 0-2 Druids but when I went back to look there are 0 or 2 so it is less damning upon checking that but I wanted to point out this still struck me as odd.
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Znirk
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Znirk » Sun Nov 15, 2015 5:23 pm UTC

Sungura wrote:
Znirk wrote:I get that it was a trap; which, by the way, is what Snark literally said. I'm saying the trap had next to no chance of succeeding unless both druids are morons, and am considering whether it was deliberatly inept.

Actually, maybe it did work. The roles say that there may be 2 Druids, aka they may not exist. But you specifically said "both Druids". I know it isn't much but I find the phraseology weird. Originally I thought there were 0-2 Druids but when I went back to look there are 0 or 2 so it is less damning upon checking that but I wanted to point out this still struck me as odd.

Took me a moment to parse this; but are you saying that I may have accidentally admitted to druidry myself?

I think I just got caught up in the druid hypothesis and forgot about the "may not be present" option when I was writing that. And talking about one single druid makes no sense, since that'd simply be another jester. Come to think about it, no: it'd be a kind of anti-survivor who wins by getting killed in any way at all; which is even more nonsensical if anything.

I think getting involved in alignment claims at this point would only add to the confusion in an already-busy game, therefore I will not comment on whether I am or amn't a druid. If anyone thinks it's a good idea to have my statement on the matter, please ask me outright.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - *SIGNUPS CLOSED*

Postby Sabrar » Sun Nov 15, 2015 5:28 pm UTC

Misnomer wrote:Druids (2, if present)
The awakening cannot be put off. The ritual must take place. Yes, along with the other recipient of this message, you are a Druid! In addition to your public abilities you may communicate with each other via PM. You win if you are either both lynched, or you both die by any means other than the lynch. Good luck!

@Sungura: why did you even think that having exactly 1 Druid was a possibility? It makes no sense at all.

Ninja'd by Znirk.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - *SIGNUPS CLOSED*

Postby Sungura » Sun Nov 15, 2015 5:53 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Misnomer wrote:Druids (2, if present)
The awakening cannot be put off. The ritual must take place. Yes, along with the other recipient of this message, you are a Druid! In addition to your public abilities you may communicate with each other via PM. You win if you are either both lynched, or you both die by any means other than the lynch. Good luck!

@Sungura: why did you even think that having exactly 1 Druid was a possibility? It makes no sense at all.

Ninja'd by Znirk.

Because most of the third party is 0-X number existing. Hence me double checking before posting and realizing it isn't as big of a tell as I thought but it still pinged me is all so I wanted to say something.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Van » Sun Nov 15, 2015 6:24 pm UTC

"I'll just sign up for this one game. It should be smaller than Hangafia, so it will be easier to keep up with." Wee! Okay, I have some time for postings. Mass thoughts:

SDK wrote:Suzaku, are you town? If so, I'm going to recommend that everyone vote you (one at a time) so you can just become a full vig.
I'm thinking this had to be an intentional "oversight", because how on earth do you expect to get a useful answer from this question?

Sabrar wrote:Factions:
Aliens: let's hunt them! :twisted:
Druids: incredibly easy if both of them have night kill abilities, and even if just one of them has NK it might be worth to kill his/her ally as going for double jester is pretty risky.
Jester: I don't like having Jesters in the game as I don't think I have enough experience to differentiate them from werevolves.
Mentions werewolves in the context of jesters, but not in the context of a faction list.
Sabrar wrote:As the D1 lynch can be a bit random and killing an independent is a better result for Town than killing one of their own
I don't think anyone particularly loves D1, but giving up our lynch to kill an independent is useless. If we don't have information from the D1 lynch to go on, then D2 is basically another D1. See: Hangafia :o Also, your wording here implies you aren't town.

dimchoka singles out ConMan for supertracking. This is a great idea, and one I didn't think of.

SirGabriel wrote:I'm not sure what I think about Van's no-doctor plan. Obviously, town doctors would be good, and werewolf doctors or alien doctors would be bad. I don't think Van said anything about the other factions; it seems to me that making a druid or survivor a doctor would be neutral for town, as would giving that ability to a lone wolf (who would have no reason to use it).
Disagree. Consider: Druids have to die before the game ends. If I doctor a druid and a town vig announces "I'm going to kill so-and-so", it's in the druid's best interest to block that. Why? Because keeping scum alive means there are more possible scum to target the druid with a kill, and also means that town may take revenge by killing the druid. Also, a druid would totally want to be doctored, because publicly known doctors are not known for their survival rate...

Here's my issue with Lawrencelot:
Ok I'm going to take on the habit of posting without having read everything, because the pace of this game will probably be higher than I'm used to. At this point I've read the roles. I assume no one is at lynch -1 at this moment.

Vote: Oscar
Unvote
Vote: Suzaku
Unvote
Voting Oscar to shut off his NK: gutsy, weird to do before RR had posted at all. Very next line: votes Suzaku to enable Suzaku's NK on him. This is really weird! There is no logical consistency between these two actions. I can really only see there being two options here: Lawrencelot was really out of it, or Lawrencelot and Suzaku share an alignment and he knew there was no risk from allowing Suzaku to target him.
Lawrencelot wrote:I don't know whether Oscar is town so I have to weigh the benefits of him killing while being town with the probability of him being town. Then it becomes beneficial to NOT kill from my point of view, and I had the ability to influence that so I did.
Yep. This really looks like Lawrencelot knows something about Suzaku's alignment and is trying to explain his vote for Oscar without being able to mention that.

:arrow: :arrow: Vote: Lawrencelot
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Snark » Sun Nov 15, 2015 6:38 pm UTC

I got Fallout 4 last night, so I'm going to be a little less active for a bit.

I am happy with the pressure on Lawrencelot at the moment. His justification of doing something scummy (before Dr Ug even made it into the thread) of wanting to see if people acted scummy by voting him is dumb. If he does something very scummy, he should expect people to vote for him. Especially town, not especially scum.

I'll have a town to scum list by the end of D1. No deadline set yet means we probably have at least 5 IRL days left. I expect everyone to have a vote down by day end or at least some analysis and a solid reason to not be voting.

That anyone is debating druids claiming to be bad for town is insane. No danger of false claim b/c two scum on a team couldn't take the risk if one of them wound up dead and outing the other. No need for both to claim as someone said as either Druid claiming would presumably name their partner. It was pure upside given that we had newer players and I assigned at least a 5% chance to being able to get a druid claim with my offhand comment. Pure upside besides the fact that some people are still talking about it. You can feel wrong to disagree with me and be wrong, but I'm really not interested in debating it any more.

Can we get a mod prod on Dr Ug and anyone else who hasn't posted?
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Van » Sun Nov 15, 2015 7:01 pm UTC

pseudo-edit: I ran out of time and forgot to mention Opus! My gut feeling is newbie town, but I'm not extremely opposed to lynching him.

I'd definitely prefer a Lawrencelot lynch. Or perhaps, lynch one and NK the other?
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Sabrar » Sun Nov 15, 2015 7:11 pm UTC

Overall reply to those who consider my phrasing scummy as I've already seen it from multiple people:
English is not my native language so I always aim to express myself succinctly as a courtesy to others. I often rewrite my posts multiple times if I'm the least bit dissatisfied with it. Among other things I try to avoid word-repetitions and therefore often use synonyms like we/us/Town/townies and werevolves/scum alternately.
Furthermore my original post had the header 'Some initial thoughts'. I thought that would be a clear enough clue that it wasn't meant to be a complete analysis of all the roles and alignments. Initially I tried to do that but found that it was just too time-consuming and I couldn't even provide meaningful content for all cases.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Vytron » Sun Nov 15, 2015 7:52 pm UTC

On Snark: This is typical Snark, I recall him doing stuff like that in previous games. Lying to attempt to get out the druids, alright. Znirk sounds like a druid... I don't know about the implications of this, because at this point Znirk could be scum making us think he wants to die. If he was town I'd have expected him to claim "I'm not a druid", so leaving it unconfirmed is scummy.

I'm saying the trap had next to no chance of succeeding unless both druids are morons, and am considering whether it was deliberatly inept.


In a large game with 26 players where some might be playing their very first mafia game? I think it's hard to say how likely was the plan to succeed. But at least we got discussion and content out of it, which was good.

On Lawrence Vs. patzer: I'd go with patzer's side. Hey, if someone suspects only someone else in the entire game, that's their opinion, that nobody else has done something major enough to be suspicious, so voting them for that isn't right, specially if that someone else is you, which is just OMGUSy.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby mpolo » Sun Nov 15, 2015 8:26 pm UTC

So, this thing is moving really rapidly. I didn't quite expect this.

I don't object to a Lawrencelot lynch, because his "activating" Suzaku at practically the same time as he "de-activated" Opus seems totally inconsistent and out of the blue. I think that means that he has to know Suzaku's alignment, and while there are a few benign ways that that could happen, there are quite a few less benign ways.

He's got a handful of votes as it is, so I'm going to wait until I have a little more time with the thread before voting.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Sungura » Mon Nov 16, 2015 12:13 am UTC

Well fwiw roadie rich has yet to post in this game so I am happy he is not active. I think anyone who hasn't been keeping up is behind at this point.

I agree that the juxtaposition of deactivating RR and activating Suzuku is odd but if you think about it the two are very different things. I see someone acting rashly, which is something a jester or such would do. Think about it - it makes you looks scummy but not jesters, the perfect combo. So I am not a fan of a Lawrence lynch.

I already stated the case for Opus and I feel they are the best option still. However I have pings from others including DJ which someone else already put forth a bit of a case for if I remember correctly. I want to go back through but on the other hand I feel so sure about opus lynch I think I want to delay analysis on the other pings until day two when I have more information.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - *SIGNUPS CLOSED*

Postby ConMan » Mon Nov 16, 2015 5:07 am UTC

I like moody's idea of summarising the roles, although I have a slightly different breakdown*:

Albert the Archaeologist (moody7277) - Investigate
Bunny the Bumblebee Bat (Sungura) - Protect
Calvin the Crotchety Old Man (crucialityfactor) - Investigate
Darryl the Drug-taking Dog (Dr Ug) - Investigate
Elmo the Exquisite Eagle (dimochka) - Investigate
Father Patrick the Franciscan Priest (SirGabriel) - Other
Gary the Grieving Widow (Sabrar) - Other
Heather the Hospital Administrator (Van) - Protect +1/day from D2
Iggy the Irrelevant Idiot (Snark) - Other
Jimmy the Janitor (jimbobmadcoodle) - Investigate
Karl the Karateka (Znirk) - Other (but may facilitate a kill)
Luna the Lycanthrope (patzer) - Investigate
Marco the Meticulous US Marine (YOLOSWAG) - Protect, Investigate or Kill
Nobody the Nameless (faubiguy) - Other (although may count as a sacrificial protection)
Oscar the Original Ganster(TM) (RoadieRich) - Kill
Perry the Perfectly Ordinary Fellow (ConMan) - Other
Quenton the Quality Assurance Lab Worker (mpolo) - Investigate
Remus the Ranger (Djehutynakht) - Protect from D2
Suzaku the Samurai (Suzaku) - Kill
Thomas the Tenure-Track Professor (frogman) - Investigate
Ulysses the Undersea Explorer (Opus_723) - Protect
Victor the Vegetarian Butcher (Lawrencelot) - Protect
Wolfgang the Welder (SDK) - Kill
Xela the Xenomorph (Diemo) - Kill from D2
Y the Yearning Spy (weiyaoli) - Investigate (also kind of Kill?)
Zenith the Zombie (Vytron) - Investigate from D2

So that's 9+ Investigations, 3+ Kills and 3+ Protections. Add in one daily kill from the lynch, and 1-3 factional kills from the wolves. So protection roles are probably the rarest, with kills coming next in the list (although both of those get a boost later in the game). Which I think means that it's probably not a terrible idea for Van to raise a few doctors to broaden the range of protective abilities out there (and increase the odds that there are some protections in the hands of town). And they should probably come mainly from the people in the "Other" camps, since we really do need plenty of kills and investigations right now. Probably me and Sabrar are good targets, me because I'm otherwise just a Perfectly Ordinary Fellow, and Sabrar since he won't have any abilities for a while anyway. If we get lucky and hit a few aliens off the bat, then it makes sense to reduce the number of kills out there too, but I'd let that wait.

I also see that dimochka is looking to super-track me, and I'm cool with that, although obviously you'll just see me doing Perfectly Ordinary things. "Perry did the dishes! Perry went shopping for new pants but didn't like any of the ones at the store." But, you know, whatever makes you happy man. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised if I was targeted with a couple of investigations (and maybe a kill or two) given how suspicious I look, but as I said before I think we want to have a spread of targets for now and can look at narrowing the investigations once we have a stronger need to corroborate results.

In other news, people who Suzaku can kill so far include: mpolo, Opus, Lawrencealot, moody, crucialityfactor, dimochka, SirG, Znirk, patzer, Vytron. I would suspect that in addition to Aliens and Wolves, the Lovers and Jesters would be reluctant to put their name down there, but the Druids might be willing (or maybe they'd wait until one of them has died so they know if making themselves open to NK is beneficial to their win condition). Would a Lone Wolf want to put themselves in Suzaku's sights? Maybe, but I think since they're essentially Serial Killers they'd be looking to lay low and stay out of the limelight as much as possible. Similarly Sibling Survivors and Masons might weigh up the options and even possibly put just one of their number forward (I guess Aliens and Wolves could do the same), and the traitor(s) could go either way. So the people who have voted Suzaku *probably* are more likely town than not, but I'm still not putting myself in that camp until I know more.

* A note on my categorisation - any ability that provides information to the user or to the game as a whole I counted as Investigative, while anything that could potentially stop a kill from happening I called a Protect, so that includes roleblocks and stuff too. Then Kills should be pretty obvious.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Nov 16, 2015 8:56 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Initially I tried to do that but found that it was just too time-consuming
Tell me about it! I may have spent about 5 hours on the two lists I made on Friday.

On the note of those lists, I'd like to apologise to anyone that found them annoying or unhelpful. I'm still finding my feet in forum mafia, and so far, I've found it easiest if I write down everything I think about everyone at a point when I have a significant amount of free time. This helps me digest the information and then I look at my summary to get a feel for who I think most suspicious. As I am quite busy generally, the rest of my posts are usually quick points on things as I see them while I'm at work or on the bus to/from work (ever tried doing a targeted reread via a phone?).

One reason for the role list is to try to help me figure out who I need to keep a particularly close eye on: e.g. characters that are more or less harmless to town, even if non-town (beyond basic faction abilities) are lower priority than their potential team-mates. That's not to say that we should ignore them. If there aren't any other obvious lynching candidates for example, then fine, go for them. On the other hand, if there are two characters with similar levels of scumminess, we should lynch the one who is more dangerous to town as a character. Investigations should probably also be looking at characters who are more dangerous to town.

Regarding the reads list, I find it easiest to develop a general read by summarising everybody's play so far. If you take a look, I actually made a few comments in line as well on some people, so there is more than just a single line explaining them. Now that I have done that, I have four players who I find more suspicious than others, so over the next little while I'm going to spend some time rereading them in more detail. Hopefully, I'll be able to post my more detailed opinions at some point this evening.

I think I broadly agree with what most people have posted recently. I noticed that Van picked up on some things I had re. Sabrar. I don't really agree with the point re. Suzaku/Lawrencelot/Oscar, as like has already been said, the two roles are somewhat different.

Conman - you missed me voting for suzaku. Why?
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby patzer » Mon Nov 16, 2015 9:48 am UTC

weiyaoli wrote:
patzer wrote:Okay, this is quite difficult to follow. It seems to me that we should lynch Lawrencelot, because he's the only player who jumped out at me as being scummy. But I could well have overlooked something, so I'll try to have a look back at the game and analyse each of the 26 players soon.


That seems incredibly suspicious to me as well - there's been plenty of stuff that's happened already to be suspicious of, and it seems opportunistic to be jumping on the player who happens to have the role that's incredible against werewolves as their ONLY suspicion.

IGMEOY: Lawrencelot
FoS: Patzer


Good point. Lawrencelot has been the only strong scum read I've got up to now; but that's why, like I said, I intend to have a look back at the game sometime to see if there's anything I've missed. You say there's plenty to be suspicious about, but nothing as blatant as Lawrence's vote on Oscar.

Lawrencelot wrote:patzer:
-Votes djehutynakht for not reading Conman's role correctly.
-Votes me after just repeating others, not a very convincing vote.
-Doesn't like Sungura's vote for Opus.
@patzer: why not?
-Thinks I'm the only scummy player and is therefore happy to lynch me. That doesn't sound like it came from a town person.

Didn't like Sungura's vote on Opus, because Opus said something that made sense to me (i.e. saying that now lots of people have voted Suzaku, it makes sense for us all to do so), and Sungura used it as a reason to vote Opus.

Why do you think it's suspicious that I only have one scum read at the moment? IMO, your actions are so blatantly scummy that they kind of drown out anything else that might be suspicious.

If you're a werewolf, you would obviously want to get rid of a vigilante who you think is probably town. The obvious way to do this is to disable that vigilante's ability at the very start of the day and pass it off as a bit of brazen recklessness. But to unilaterally take a game-changing action, as a townie with no information, without giving any explanation, goes beyond recklessness. I just can't see an actual townie doing that.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Znirk » Mon Nov 16, 2015 11:34 am UTC

Since I hear you like discussion, a quick response:

Vytron wrote:On Snark: This is typical Snark, I recall him doing stuff like that in previous games. Lying to attempt to get out the druids, alright. Znirk sounds like a druid... I don't know about the implications of this, because at this point Znirk could be scum making us think he wants to die. If he was town I'd have expected him to claim "I'm not a druid", so leaving it unconfirmed is scummy.

I'm saying the trap had next to no chance of succeeding unless both druids are morons, and am considering whether it was deliberatly inept.


In a large game with 26 players where some might be playing their very first mafia game? I think it's hard to say how likely was the plan to succeed.


Well, I'm one of those first-time players (apart from a couple of face-to-face games, but those had no win-by-dying roles), and the idea seemed absurd once I gave it any serious thought. Also remember that druids have chat, so you'd pretty much need both of them to think that claiming is a good idea.

On my statement on druidry: How relevant is it right now whether or not I'm a druid, why would you believe me, and how would the information affect town and scum targeting? I frankly don't know, which is why I held back from a somewhat irreversible step and left it to other, more experienced players to ask me if they think it'd help. Nobody has.

About bringing up past Snark to explain present Snark ... Right now we have Vytron either confirming there's probably no problem, or then he's saying "Snark isn't the 'droid you're looking for". Do we have anyone who has played with Snark before with an opinion on which seems likelier?

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Misnomer » Mon Nov 16, 2015 11:50 am UTC

Players are requested not to use bold font unless trying to seek the mod's attention for votes, queries etc. FoS, IGMEOY etc. are fine, but if you are simply trying to get another player's attention I suggest you use underline instead.

Like furious winged monkeys of vengeance, modprods will be sent out to Dr Ug & RoadieRich.

Znirk wrote:Rule question: Does this imply that we will be told when the aliens are eliminated? Or can Ulysses try diving on day 6, and the attempt will fail if there are any aliens left?
I will inform all players if/when the werewolf faction and the aliens faction are eliminated.

Votals:

SDK (1): Djehutynakht
ConMan (1): dimochka
Djehutynakht (1): SDK
Dr Ug (1): SirGabriel
Lawrencelot (3): ConMan, patzer, Van
Opus_723 (2): Sungura, znirk
jimbobmacdoodle (1): weiyaoli
Patzer (1): Lawrencelot

Not voting (14): moody7277, cruicalityfactor, Dr Ug, Sabrar, jimbobmacdoodle, YOLOSWAG, Faubiguy, roadierich, mpolo, Suzaku, Frogman, Opus_723, Diemo, Vytron

Game Status:
Forgman has put forward a research proposal to investigate Suzaku. Tenure committee members should cast their vote via PM before day end.
Snark is currently voteless.
6 Tenure Committee members are alive.
13 votes required to majority lynch.


No deadline... for the moment at least.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Lawrencelot » Mon Nov 16, 2015 1:04 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:I don't object to a Lawrencelot lynch, because his "activating" Suzaku at practically the same time as he "de-activated" Opus seems totally inconsistent and out of the blue.

It's not out of the blue, I did it after reading the roles. I explain below why it's not inconsistent.

Van wrote:Voting Oscar to shut off his NK: gutsy, weird to do before RR had posted at all. Very next line: votes Suzaku to enable Suzaku's NK on him. This is really weird! There is no logical consistency between these two actions. I can really only see there being two options here: Lawrencelot was really out of it, or Lawrencelot and Suzaku share an alignment and he knew there was no risk from allowing Suzaku to target him.

The two roles are very different. For Suzaku we can choose who he's able to kill, for Oscar we can't. If Oscar is scum, I don't want him to be able to kill a powerful town role. For Suzaku, that is possible only if the powerful town roles vote for him, which I hope did not happen by now. Sure, I'm pretty powerful too, but not as important as some investigative roles for example, and I only work against one faction. I'm glad to inspire some scum players to vote for Suzaku out of peer pressure as well at the risk of werewolf Suzaku killing me, just because of the potential benefit if Suzaku is town.

Here are some fake numbers I made up under which conditions my actions were optimal, to illustrate:
Spoiler:
Assumptions: Everyone is either town or scum, and I'm town. There are 9 scum (as an example), and they are in one group. A town vig will kill someone.

P(Lawrencelot=town)=1
P(Oscar=town)=17/26, P(Oscar=scum)=9/26
P(Suzaku=town)=17/26, P(Suzaku=scum)=9/26
P(Oscar will kill N1) = 1
P(Suzaku will kill N1) = 1

P(Oscar is town and kills town) = 17/26*16/26 = 0.4024, reward -1
P(Oscar is town and kills scum) = 17/26*9/26 = 0.2263, reward 2 (let's say scum is worth twice as much as town)
P(Oscar is scum and kills town) = 9/26*17/17 = 0.3462, reward -1 (from town point of view)
P(Oscar is scum and kills scum) = 9/26*0/17 = 0 (would be slightly increased with multiple scum groups)

From Oscar's perspective, if he is town he should kill because the expected reward is 0.4024*-1 + 0.2263*2 = 0.05> 0
From my perspective, the expected reward if Oscar kills is 0.05-0.3462 = -0.2962 < 0

So as a townie, I want to block Oscar's kill, even though for him as a townie it's better to kill. For Suzaku it's different, because I assume he can't kill good town roles (like Dr Ug) as they should not vote for him. Let's say he can kill everyone except Dr Ug, and Dr Ug is town, then the penalty is lower:
P(Suzaku is town and kills town) = 17/26*15/25 = 0.3923, reward -0.5 (lower penalty)
P(Suzaku is town and kills scum) = 17/26*9/25 = 0.2354, reward 2
P(Suzaku is scum and kills town) = 9/26*16/16 = 0.3462, reward -0.5
P(Suzaku is scum and kills scum) = 9/26*0/17 = 0

Now the expected reward from my point of view is -0.5*0.3923 + 2*0.2354 -0.5*0.3462 = 0.1016 > 0
So, if I could choose whether Suzaku can kill everyone except one very good town role (the number here is extreme, but of course there are multiple good town roles), then I should choose so. And I choose so by voting for him and hoping that scum follows me while the powerful town roles don't follow me.

Of course, these numbers can be twerked a lot and there are many assumptions and the math is not correct, but even without the math this is the logic I used when I voted for Oscar and Suzaku, and is probably similar to the logic SirGabriel used in saying we should vote for Oscar and Vytron used in saying we should vote for Suzaku.


So I still believe my actions were correct, although I should have discussed them first. The reason I did not discuss them first was because it was obvious to me after reading the roles that these actions were optimal, even though I did not think of the possibility of werewolves killing aliens at the time. Also, I strongly believe we should investigate both Suzaku and Oscar as soon as possible, but that is obvious too.

Because people are still voting for me after I've explained myself, I will claim. I am a mason. I will not reveal my buddy/buddies, and asked them not to confirm me. In case I'm lying, the real mason(s) should not reveal themselves. This makes this claim worthless basically, but later on in the game with more investigations and nightkills the claim will become more valuable, because it would be very hard to keep up with a lie like this for long. So I hope you all give me a chance and let me use my power to stop the werewolf threat, and let me help in catching scum by coordinating with my buddy/buddies.

None of the players who've voted me by now are mason, but I can't promise that no mason will vote for me in the future.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby patzer » Mon Nov 16, 2015 1:23 pm UTC

Well, that changes things a bit. Don't know whether to believe Lawrencelot's mason claim or not.

Question for Lawrencelot: why do you say that if you're lying, the masons shouldn't claim? Surely it would be a good idea for them to claim, because then we'd know you are lying, and could lynch you.
This seems quite odd.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Snark » Mon Nov 16, 2015 1:30 pm UTC

Quick note from mobile.

Possible alignments in this game: Druids, Traitor, Jesters, Survivors. I could see any number of these third parties claiming mason, and I'm not sure whether it's worth a member of the actual mason team, if there is one, counter claiming. I think we should discuss what various scum/third parties have to gain from a mason claim before deciding whether or not to check and ask for counter claims. (It's a counter claim b/c a mason team without Lawrence implies Lawrence is not a mason, can't have two teams with a max of 3 masons). If we don't ask for counter claims, we also need to know whether we still want to lynch him. Probably not since an investigation can distinguish between third party and scum and I don't think leaving a known third party alive and ignoring them is dangerous (unless they have a scary night power which Lawrencelot doesn't).
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Lawrencelot » Mon Nov 16, 2015 1:31 pm UTC

Because scum could kill the real mason then. It would be far better for any real-mason-not-Lawrencelot out there to just vote and lynch me while saying they don't believe the claim, that won't tell scum anything. But I'm not going to argue this further since we're not in that situation anyway. The only ones I could see countering my claim are the druids, if there are any.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Snark » Mon Nov 16, 2015 1:32 pm UTC

Initial feeling is that it's a lie since he basically told real Mason's not to counter claim him. Feels like he knows that if there's a real mason team, it doesn't include him.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Suzaku » Mon Nov 16, 2015 1:37 pm UTC

OK, I must once again apologise; I did not, in fact, have time over the weekend, hence no post.
I haven't had time to do much more than scan over the immense amount of text in this thread, and I certainly haven't had time to formulate proper opinions on players.

So, what I have been able to think about necessarily revolves around my role and strategy.
First - I absolutely refuse to be constrained to a selected target, regardless of how that target is selected. The reasons for this should be obvious, but in case they aren't, it's because if scum knows who I will target, it becomes too easy for them to plan. At the least, it reduces their choice for the NK by one, guaranteeing an additional town death if the prescribed target is town. If the target is unannounced, the kills could coincide, reducing the death toll by one.

That said, I will take underlined votes, suggestions from people I consider trustworthy, the second position in the lynch, etc. into consideration when picking a target. I will not target randomly, and I will withhold the kill if none of my available targets appear to me as scum.

I would like to post some reads on other players here, but apart from Lawrencelot (whose latest math-filled post I have to re-examine before commenting on) I'm afraid that every read I have is going to be not so much influenced, but pretty much defined, by analyses written by other players.
I need to sit down and read each player in isolation, and I will endeavour to do this over the next day or two.

Ninjas coming out of the woodwork: I reserve judgement until I've had a chance to reread and analyse properly.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Nov 16, 2015 1:41 pm UTC

There's no way I'm going to be able to analyze everyone in a game this big.
I'm still opposed to a Lawrencelot lynch. I'll look into Opus when I have a chance. If there are any other specific people you want me to analyze, let me know.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby patzer » Mon Nov 16, 2015 1:50 pm UTC

Snark wrote:Initial feeling is that it's a lie since he basically told real Mason's not to counter claim him. Feels like he knows that if there's a real mason team, it doesn't include him.


Agreed, seems like Lawrencelot is pretty much claiming to be third party. If we don't get any strong leads, we should lynch Lawrencelot: lynching a third party is better than lynching a townie, at least. (though lynching scum is obviously preferable)

For now I'll

Unvote.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby SDK » Mon Nov 16, 2015 3:43 pm UTC

No way, not a chance.

Vote Snark.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Sabrar » Mon Nov 16, 2015 3:44 pm UTC

@Lawrencelot: did it take long for you to calculate the expected reward of your scenario or did you do it instinctly? The reason I ask is that if you're very used to these kind of probability calculations (which you very well might be) than I could buy your reasoning of 'it was obvious for me, didn't think to wait'. However if you did it meticulously by hand then it is less believable for me that your first thought would be to sit down and calculate the odds before reading what others had to say.
Claiming Mason while warning other Masons not to confirm/deny seems to me the same as claiming Vanilla Townie, which is basically the baseline for everybody so it's really not telling anything. Furthermore it looks even more scummy to me because of this specific warning. My current thought is that if he's lying, then 1 Mason who so far is considered townie by several people independently should counterclaim. This is based on the idea that trading 1-for-1 with scum is advantageous to us. Please let me know if there is a fault in my reasoning.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Nov 16, 2015 4:06 pm UTC

SDK wrote:No way, not a chance.

Vote Snark.
What is this referring to here SDK? I'd understand if you did this to Lawrencelot given his claim, but Snark?

Sabrar wrote:This is based on the idea that trading 1-for-1 with scum is advantageous to us. Please let me know if there is a fault in my reasoning.
In a typical game, I'd agree with you, but in this sort of game, with so many factions, it is within the realms of possibility that town are actually in the minority, so a one-to-one swap isn't necessarily a good idea. Futhermore, even if town aren't in the minority, if Lawrencelot is third party, lynching him is a waste, so a counter-claim won't even guarantee a scum death, but will almost certainly guarantee a town death.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Snark » Mon Nov 16, 2015 4:10 pm UTC

All of SDK's posts:

SDK wrote:Jesus.

Suzaku, are you town? If so, I'm going to recommend that everyone vote you (one at a time) so you can just become a full vig.

Priority is to kill the Aliens, I guess?

Misnomer, could you please specify which anti-town win conditions will result in the game ending?

Anyone want to volunteer to get targeted by Heather?

pedit: Bah. More later.
SDK wrote:
Djehutynakht wrote:We could lynch SDK? That's usually a good start in a Mafia game.

I don't think that's ever happened.

Vote DJ for completely unrelated reasons.
SDK wrote:
Misnomer wrote:
SDK wrote:Misnomer, could you please specify which anti-town win conditions will result in the game ending?

All anti-town win conditions will result in the game ending: for werewolves and lone wolves, they are required to eliminate all other factions/players. For aliens, the game ends with their victory at the end of day 6, should they remain alive.

Sorry, mispoke. What (if any) third party factions will result in the game ending?


Ugh, can you believe I typed that yesterday morning intending to finish this post? C'mon! I'm super busy. Be back when I can with some actual thoughts. Shutting down for now...
SDK wrote:No way, not a chance.

Vote Snark.


So SDK is obviously non-town. The question is whether they're a jester who is trying too hard and/or doesn't realize the D1 restriction, a druid who thinks lynches are the way to go, a traitor with no subtlety whatsoever, or a anti-town trying to pretend to be third party.

My vote would be on SDK if I had a vote.
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Znirk
Posts: 174
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Znirk » Mon Nov 16, 2015 4:11 pm UTC

Lawrencelot's role is something I hadn't considered when I last wrote about him. His role ability is no threat to town, aliens and 3rd parties, problematic for the werewolf faction, and crippling (as long as he's alive) for any lone wolves he happens to hit.

He's still on my shortlist and definitely to be watched, but I would suggest not killing him before investigation. Also, if he sees the next dawn AND gets mind-controlled AND is sufficiently non-scum to tell the truth about it, it might be interesting to see whom the aliens peg as wolf (i.e. "anti-town-but-not-one-of-us").

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Diemo
Posts: 396
Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2007 8:43 pm UTC

Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Diemo » Mon Nov 16, 2015 4:21 pm UTC

Sorry I am low on time (job applications). This thread is moving pretty fast.

Firstly, I don't know if I believe Lawrencelot's mason claim. Also, Lawrencelot claims that we can direct Suzaku's NK but not RR's NK? Why can we direct one and not the other? This is fishy but at the moment I don't think that he is the best lynch. I wouldn't mind him getting killed at night though.

On Snark's plan to out the druids - it has no downside. Sure the chances are not high, but it has literally no downside. I don't think that it is particularly townie - aliens/WW would want to know who the druids are as well. It does fit the Snark meta I remember though.

On Conman - I don't think that we should let paranoia of his secret role cause his lynching. Roles were made first (I assume) so the fact that Conman's roile is secret has no effect on his alignment.

Vytron wrote:Eh, lovers don't know if their partner is of their same alignment.

Lovers do know the alignment of their lovers. Though they could be traitors I suppose.

On Opus: I'm not opposed to his lynch but can see him being newbie town. One of the signs of newbie town is to be all over the shop. That said, both Amy and YOLOSWAG seem to think that Opus is scum so I will need to take a more careful look.

I think frogman investigating Suzaku is a good idea. I think that for the moment, the person who investigates three people should target me and two others (other than Suzaku). Even if we get third party results they will be helpful later in the game and for the moment catching aliens is highest priority.

Triple ninja FTW!. Will respond later
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