Smalltown Werewolf PYP - F is for Finished!

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moody7277
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby moody7277 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:39 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@moody7277: did you consider the possibility that frogman and Suzaku are on the same scum-team? You previously agreed with me that Suzaku's play looked scummy.


To be specific, I was unsure of Suzaku, not necessarily suspicious. The probability of them being in the same team is less than 10%, so I am not very worried about that. Cross checking would be nice, which may happen once some of the other investigators report in. Since no one's been dead until now, I couldn't check anyone.

I am not under alien mind control.

ninja quote:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm a little bit confused why people are claiming they are not under mind control, when the controlled person has already claimed... However, I can confirm that I am not under mind control, if for some reason it is relevant.


Apparently, there are 2-4 aliens which each can control someone.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:45 pm UTC

Oops, jut reread the Alien alignment and it looks like there are indeed multiple mind-controls. Sorry about that.
I'm not mind-controlled (and there'd be no point to it anyway without any abilities).

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:51 pm UTC

Ah woops. Then yes, others should continue to confirm or deny their mind-control status.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Djehutynakht » Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:25 pm UTC

Vote: moody

I think that's unfair. I followed the arguments on Opus, I was convinced, I voted for him and, hey look! I was right.

My only regret is that they weren't aliens. I also worry if killing off werewolves strengthens aliens (by means of them having less competition to worry about). However, I guess so long as at least one werewolf lives to carry out the kill we should be good on that front.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Suzaku » Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:29 pm UTC

The alternative to posting analysis will be to fall asleep at my keyboard.
Which is what I did.
I now have a really sore neck.

Thanks to the tenure board for approving that. The result is correct, and I (somewhat) trust frogman for not lying about it.

I did not kill anyone last night (partly because I had no good scum reads, and partly because, well, asleep at keyboard).

I am not under mind control.

Next week should be a lot more reasonable in terms of time available to think about the game, so my participation should be back up to an acceptable level.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby #HBC | YOLOSWAG » Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:35 pm UTC

Another quickhit before I can sit down: I'm not under alien control either.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby freezeblade » Sat Nov 21, 2015 12:15 am UTC

I am not under alien control.

I also did not target anyone last night, I didn't have good enough reads to make an informed or useful target of my ability.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby RoadieRich » Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:18 am UTC

I did not target anyone (thanks, Lawrencelot :evil: ), nor am I under alien control. Analysis to come later.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby mpolo » Sat Nov 21, 2015 8:28 am UTC

I am not under mind control.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Nov 21, 2015 9:40 am UTC

While I think about it, and after yesterday's debacle with roadierich/Lawrencelot I think it goes without saying that nobody should vote for roadierich until we've had some decent discussion at least.

Also, if my memory is correct, we must have at least one lone wolf, unless ConMan controls a kill by being Perry.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Sat Nov 21, 2015 9:48 am UTC

Time to analyze the claimed results in order as I don't want to take anything at face value.

crucialityfactor: obviously trusting him, though from other players' perspectives we could of course be on the same scum-team.
mpolo: the only possible roleblocks on N1 were #HBC | YOLOSWAG and maybe ConMan. With the former claiming a kill and the latter not too likely, this is very probably the truth but it doesn't really tell us anything about mpolo.
frogman: reread his posts from D1 and got a townie vibe. He could theoretically be on the same scum-team as Suzaku (as he was pushing to clear him from the beginning) but Town could easily make the same play. It is very unfortunate that both of them posted relatively little content so far, therefore I eagerly await their long and thorough analysis before making up my mind about them.
#HBC | YOLOSWAG: claimed to kill Vytron, therefore being anti-werewolf. Did it before Suzaku claimed (who in theory could also have targeted Vytron). Still this is probably a safe thing to do even if he's a werewolf as having multiple kill confirmations on the same person will not cause a contradiction. Looks better after Suzaku claimed to have withhold the kill. Still not sure, will have to judge on future actions.
patzer: There are currently extremely few doctors in the game - #HBC | YOLOSWAG and possibly ConMan - with the former probably choosing to kill instead and the latter being not too likely. Therefore the result is almost certainly true, however don't you think that there were better targets exactly for the same reasons?
jimbobmacdoodle: unfortunately we won't be able to verify his results for some time. However it is unlikely that 2 werewolves were voting for their own buddy so if it's true then there will be probably an Alien or Lone Wolf among them. jimbobmacdoodle is one of the most active posters with lots of content so a complete reread will definitely take some time. Until that I'm not ready to act on this information.
Suzaku: claims no kill due to basically having no time to follow the action. Is at least consistent with his earlier assertions. Would have been much more believable if claimed before investigation results, still could be true. Will need to see the promised content before I trust him.

additional thought: Djehutynakht's ability looks terrifying in the hands of scum and he's definitely looking very scummy right now (although he posted lots of times on D1 there was extremely little content to it despite of multiple promises). Although would he be that obvious? That's why I hate Jesters...

FoS: Djehutynakht

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Djehutynakht » Sat Nov 21, 2015 10:03 am UTC

In my defense, it's my firm belief that nothing good ever comes of Day 1. It's just endless speculation and chatter with nothing concrete to build off of. That's why I generally prefer to stay quiet on D1. That, and the fact that I have this annoying tendency to say something that gets me lynched.

In addition, in this game in particular I had nothing specific to do on D1. D2 I have stuff to do.

I am still concerned about the presence of the Aliens, however. We only have four days to kill the lot of them. Town usually mislynches a lot, although to be fair we got quite a few werewolves today---although I'm interested in how Vytron was night-killed.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:03 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:patzer: There are currently extremely few doctors in the game - #HBC | YOLOSWAG and possibly ConMan - with the former probably choosing to kill instead and the latter being not too likely. Therefore the result is almost certainly true, however don't you think that there were better targets exactly for the same reasons?


Honestly I wasn't at all sure who to target, but knowledge of who znirk targeted would be important due to the nature of his ability. Town-Znirk might not target anyone due to not wanting to risk targeting a townie, but Anti-Town-Znirk would surely target someone who he knows would be opposed to him? Especially if he were a werewolf, he would target whoever the werewolves intended to kill. Therefore, I think znirk is probably town.
As someone we had no decent reads on, I thought this info might be useful.

Will wait for everyone to post their night actions before trying to work out reads.
If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands. –Douglas Adams

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - *SIGNUPS IN THREAD*

Postby patzer » Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:18 am UTC

Players, in alphabetical order:

Albert the Archaeologist (moody7277)
Bunny the Bumblebee Bat (Sungura)
Calvin the Crotchety Old Man (crucialityfactor)
Darryl the Drug-taking Dog (Dr Ug)
Elmo the Exquisite Eagle (dimochka) - died Night 1 - Townie (town)
Father Patrick the Franciscan Priest (SirGabriel)
Gary the Grieving Widow (Sabrar)
Heather the Hospital Administrator (Van)
Iggy the Irrelevant Idiot (Snark)
Jimmy the Janitor (jimbobmadcoodle)
Karl the Karateka (Znirk)
Luna the Lycanthrope (patzer)
Marco the Meticulous US Marine (YOLOSWAG)
Nobody the Nameless (faubiguy)
Oscar the Original Ganster(TM) (RoadieRich)
Perry the Perfectly Ordinary Fellow (ConMan)
Quenton the Quality Assurance Lab Worker (mpolo)
Remus the Ranger (Djehutynakht)
Suzaku the Samurai (Suzaku)
Thomas the Tenure-Track Professor (frogman)
Ulysses the Undersea Explorer (Opus_723) - died Day 1 - Werewolf (anti-town)
Victor the Vegetarian Butcher (Lawrencelot)
Wolfgang the Welder (SDK/freezeblade)
Xela the Xenomorph (Diemo)
Y the Yearning Spy (weiyaoli) - died Night 1 - Mason (town)
Zenith the Zombie (Vytron) - died Night 1 - Werewolf (anti-town)
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Lawrencelot » Sat Nov 21, 2015 1:44 pm UTC

I'm not controlled by aliens. I am obviously not revealing my night action.

I was hoping someone would investigate Roadierich so it would be clear whether we should vote him or not, but at least we know about Suzaku.

Claimed actions:
Albert the Archaeologist (moody7277) Could not investigate yet
Bunny the Bumblebee Bat (Sungura)
Calvin the Crotchety Old Man (crucialityfactor) Targeted Sabrar, he cannot chat.
Darryl the Drug-taking Dog (Dr Ug)
Elmo the Exquisite Eagle (dimochka) - died Night 1 - Townie (town)
Father Patrick the Franciscan Priest (SirGabriel)
Gary the Grieving Widow (Sabrar)
Heather the Hospital Administrator (Van) Made Znirk a Nurse
Iggy the Irrelevant Idiot (Snark) Targeted SDK/Freezeblade
Jimmy the Janitor (jimbobmadcoodle) Two of Sungura, znirk, mpolo, Van, patzer, Djehutynakht are scum
Karl the Karateka (Znirk)
Luna the Lycanthrope (patzer) Tracked Znirk, he did not target anyone
Marco the Meticulous US Marine (YOLOSWAG) Killed Vytron
Nobody the Nameless (faubiguy)
Oscar the Original Ganster(TM) (RoadieRich) Did not target
Perry the Perfectly Ordinary Fellow (ConMan)
Quenton the Quality Assurance Lab Worker (mpolo) No failed actions
Remus the Ranger (Djehutynakht)
Suzaku the Samurai (Suzaku) Did not kill
Thomas the Tenure-Track Professor (frogman) Suzaku is town
Ulysses the Undersea Explorer (Opus_723) - died Day 1 - Werewolf (anti-town)
Victor the Vegetarian Butcher (Lawrencelot) Not claiming action
Wolfgang the Welder (SDK/freezeblade) Did not weld
Xela the Xenomorph (Diemo)
Y the Yearning Spy (weiyaoli) - died Night 1 - Mason (town)
Zenith the Zombie (Vytron) - died Night 1 - Werewolf (anti-town)

Waiting on claims of: Dr Ug, ... and that's it.


I did this already but just to be sure:

Vote: Suzaku

Unvote



jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Quick check-in to say that there were two anti-town on the Opus lynch. This means that 2 of:
Sungura, znirk, mpolo, Van, patzer, Djehutynakht
are scum.

Ok, let's lynch patzer.

patzer wrote:Question for the people lambasting me for my indecisiveness: do you believe Conman is similarly scummy for not voting?

Yes, but you are even more scummy after asking this question.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:56 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Quick check-in to say that there were two anti-town on the Opus lynch. This means that 2 of:
Sungura, znirk, mpolo, Van, patzer, Djehutynakht
are scum.

Ok, let's lynch patzer.

patzer wrote:Question for the people lambasting me for my indecisiveness: do you believe Conman is similarly scummy for not voting?

Yes, but you are even more scummy after asking this question.


...Okay.
Well, I guess I don't have any way to disprove your claim. You're wrong, of course, but you have no way of knowing that so I can't blame you for being suspicious of me :P

Vote: Suzaku

Unvote


I hadn't realised so many people had claimed already!
Preliminary reads:

Marco (YOLOSWAG) - Leaning TOWN - he killed a werewolf
Karl (Znirk) - Leaning TOWN - he didn't target anyone last night.
Victor (Lawrencelot) - CONFIRMED TOWN - A doctor should protect him tonight.

Assuming Znirk and I are town, and Jimmy was telling the truth, then two of Sungura, mpolo, Van, Djehutynakht are scum. Not sure what to make of that; will have to keep an eye on those players.
Am somewhat suspicious of Van - we obviously need a doctor to protect Lawrencelot tonight, so it seems quite odd that she'd choose to create a Nurse rather than a Doctor.
If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands. –Douglas Adams

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Snark » Sat Nov 21, 2015 3:28 pm UTC

Not mind controlled.

Albert/moody - No target.
Bunny/Sungura - No target.
Calvin/crucialityfactor - Said Sabrar cannot chat. Mind controlled to vote patzer.
Darryl/Dr Ug - Lurky. Still waiting on results.
Elmo/dimochka - Town. Dead after tracking Conman.
Father Patrick/SirGabriel - No target.
Gary/Sabrar - No target.
Heather/Van - Nursed znirk.
Iggy/Snark - Obvious target.
Jimmy/jimbob - Feels townie. Says 2 of Sungura, znirk, mpolo, Van, patzer, Djehutynakht are nontown.
Karl/znirk - Withheld.
Luna/patzer - Sayz znirk targetted no one N1.
Marco/HBC - Killed Vytron.
Nobody/faubiguy - Lurk.
Oscar/roadierich - Roleblocked.
Perry/ConMan.
ConMan wrote:I also see that dimochka is looking to super-track me, and I'm cool with that
If he's a PGO as implied by dimochka's death, he's not town or he'd have given some vague non-modly-wrath-inducing warning.
Quenton/mpolo - No night actions failed.
Remus/Dj - Jestery end of D1. Backtracking now. No action.
Suzaku/Suzaku - Withheld.
Thomas/frogman - Claim Suzaku town.
Ulysses/Opus - Werewolf. Dead.
Victor/Lawrence - Mason. Not claiming action.
Wolfgang/freezeblade - Still don't trust based on SDK. Withheld action.
Xela/Diemo - No target.
Y/weiyaoli - Mason. Dead.
Zenith/Vytron - Werewolf. Dead.

Suzaku votes
D1 voted Suzaku - crucialityfactor, jimbob, Lawrencelot, moody, mpolo, Opus, patzer, roadierich, SirGabriel, Vytron, znirk
D1 did not vote Suzaku, but voted D2 - frogman
D1-2 did not vote Suzaku - Conman, Diemo, dimochka, Dr Ug, faubiguy, freezeblade, HBC, sabrar, Snark (couldn't D1), Sungura, Van, weiyaoli

Once we get Dr Ug's results, I'm going to post what I want to do with all this info.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby faubiguy » Sat Nov 21, 2015 3:41 pm UTC

I did not target anyone last night, and am not under mind control.

Since Suzaku is probably cleared as town (unless frogman is scum with them, or some third party), I'll do this now:

Vote: Suzaku

Unvote

patzer wrote:Am somewhat suspicious of Van - we obviously need a doctor to protect Lawrencelot tonight, so it seems quite odd that she'd choose to create a Nurse rather than a Doctor.

I think this was pretty well explained in his post D1 ­– making doctors too incautiously leads to a fairly high chance of making anti-town doctors, and nurse-ifying a player works as a roleblock until a doctor dies (in this case nurse-ifying Znirk since their power is much more helpful to scum than town). Also, unless I'm mistaken Lawrencelot wasn't confirmed town until weiyaoli's flip D2, so it seems odd to expect Van to have taken that into account unless you're anti-town who already knew that Lawrencelot wasn't in your faction then.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sungura » Sat Nov 21, 2015 3:46 pm UTC

I am at a rabbit show all weekend and posting what i want to from my phone is just not going to happen (i need a keyboard and real screen, phone posting sucks). I will post on Monday - i have a long one planned. the TLDR version is: i am pretty sure i know at least two of the scum are who voted Opus, and I am glad Vyrtron is dead as today i was going to make a case against him so it saves me that, there are a couple people i am worried about being scum and i think i have spotted some links and tells from some aliens. Today i believe it is imparitive we try to hit an alien. Clearly either we have crap aim on the town side, or the kills belong to aliens, or the werewolves are not helping us. Four dead with no aliens is...well that seems to be approaching the unlikely. Sorry for the breif and illdefined post. Phone. Tiny keyboard. (And if something about the deaths is reveiled i cant read that much text on this screen - it seems some are claiming their actions so i need to go through and sort that still)

Oh - i am not being mind controled

I have to do analysis to determine how i feel about the suzaku vote/unvote thing, that is anothing thing that the entire thing is...fishy and ill explain in my big post later.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Sat Nov 21, 2015 6:13 pm UTC

faubiguy wrote:
patzer wrote:Am somewhat suspicious of Van - we obviously need a doctor to protect Lawrencelot tonight, so it seems quite odd that she'd choose to create a Nurse rather than a Doctor.

I think this was pretty well explained in his post D1 ­– making doctors too incautiously leads to a fairly high chance of making anti-town doctors, and nurse-ifying a player works as a roleblock until a doctor dies (in this case nurse-ifying Znirk since their power is much more helpful to scum than town). Also, unless I'm mistaken Lawrencelot wasn't confirmed town until weiyaoli's flip D2, so it seems odd to expect Van to have taken that into account unless you're anti-town who already knew that Lawrencelot wasn't in your faction then.


Well, as soon as weiyaoli and Lawrencelot had confirmed each others' mason claims yesterday, we could be almost certain that said claims were true.

Anti-town doctors aren't too detrimental to us (what's the worst they can do? Possibly block Marco's kill?)

whereas townie doctors would be very handy for stopping nightkills of confirmed townies.

Had Heather/Van made Znirk a doctor, our situation would be much better. We'd just tell znirk to protect Lawrencelot tonight; if Lawrencelot died then znirk would then be confirmed scum.
Making znirk a doctor would block his original ability in exactly the same way that making him a nurse would, so that isn't a problem.

Overall, I think we should create doctors- not nurses. TBH I should have thought of this on day 1, but better late than never :oops:

FoS Heather/Van
If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands. –Douglas Adams

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Nov 21, 2015 6:45 pm UTC

I didn't get a chance to do this analysis before deadline, but I feel it appropriate to take a look at SDK/freezeblade and see what I can find about him:

SDK/freezeblade:

His first game post asks Suzaku if he is town. Seems odd, but could easily have been meant as much a joke as anything else. He recommends everybody vote for Suzaku to turn him into a vig, but without voting. However, something that struck me that nobody else seems to have noticed, is that the statement was prefaced with "If you are [town]". He didn't say this directly, but my guess was that he expected a discussion and/or investigation before people voted him. Suggests that aliens are the priority, although a bit non-comittally. Maybe he has seen that that's what most people will think, but in case people don't go with that doesn't want to stand out too much (this would be scummy)? Finally he asks for volunteers for Van, which I think is a bit of a null point in itself. Interestingly, he doesn't suggest that he be doctored. He could be trying to flush out people who are too eager. At the same time, he could also be trying to avoid looking too eager himself. Of course he might have had an idea how to use his ability usefully, but to me it looks like one of the less useful powers. I could read this as scum!SDK trying to flush out other scum, but that might be overthinking it a bit.

His next post he votes DJ for "completely unrelated reasons". This seems like a typical SDK day 1 early vote, attempting to generate a reaction from which he could get information. He seems to do this as both scum and town, so null tell there on its own. He then complains about being too busy, which is backed up by his later request for replacement.

Having never followed up on DJ, he votes Snark, without a reason in his post with a vote. He does promptly give a reason when challenged. His logic does seem to have a few gaps in it. There are a number of third party factions who could have had a reason to false claim mason, and similarly there were various reasons why scum might not choose to kill him in the night, for example because they are more concerned with finding aliens, and they didn't believe him to be one. It feels to me like he could be fabricating his reasoning, so as to push a lynch on someone, and providing a reason to do so. His following post includes his request for replacement. It also includes an expression of doubt that Snark is scum, and continued requests for people to not lynch Lawrencelot. If Lawrencelot hadn't been confirmed a mason, I'd be very suspicious of this. As he is, I think it's a fairly townie sign. The expression of doubt in Snark being scum though seems a bit odd. I see this as a bit scummy, since it could easily be scum concerned about looking suspicious should Snark flip town.

Freezeblade takes over and immediately chooses to unvote. He also says he doesn't understand SDK's play. Freezeblade could be here trying to distance himself from the behaviour that he others have already found scummy. This could be taken either way. Town!freezeblade or scum!freezeblade would both be worried about how scummy they look. About the only people who might not be are most third party factions.

After a brief discussion, freezeblade decides to withhold his ability, since he has no strong reads. Since this was based on my advice, I can't fault it. He didn't however choose to vote or really analyse anyone before deadline, though from the brief bit I know of playing with freezeblade, this may be his style for D1, and he was around for very little time relatively speaking. As with the others though who have not given any real thoughts on anybody, I expect more from him now.

Conclusion: I definitely see where people were coming from with belief that SDK was looking scummy. I want freezeblade to post more, so that I can develop a better read. At the moment, I'd put him as scum-leaning neutral.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Nov 21, 2015 7:11 pm UTC

Patzer, I don't agree with a lot of what you have said re. doctors. Firstly, you say that a doctor should protect Lawrencelot tonight. That would require Marco to do it, since we have no doctors at this point (and you yourself acknowledged such). In turn, this would require Marco to not kill, thus reducing the number of opportunities to deal with scum. This all makes me feel that you are an alien, reinforcing what I felt on the previous day.

patzer wrote:Anti-town doctors aren't too detrimental to us (what's the worst they can do? Possibly block Marco's kill?)
Or suzaku's or roadierich's... Why did you only highlight Marco's, especially as you seem to be implying that Marco should be doctoring? Lawrencelot dying would be far from confirming znirk as scum - for example, jester!Znirk in fact would almost certainly not protect Lawrencelot, so that he looks like scum. Alternatively, znirk could decide that targeting someone else might in his judgement be more important, regardless what others said. This doesn't necessarily make him look like scum. After all, wine could dictate that killing the designated target would be a silly idea, since it would waste the kill, so znirk chooses to protect someone else, but scum think this is likely to be the case, and choose to target Lawrecenlot after all.

The more I think about this, the worse your logic sounds. In fact, it's missing so many points that I am beginning to think that you are a jester.

At this stage though, I'm more than happy to:

Vote patzer

@Lawrencelot, you said that we should lynch patzer, but you didn't vote. I'm interested to know why not.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Sat Nov 21, 2015 8:18 pm UTC

Honestly, I'd forgotten that there was only one doctor, and more than one role with a nightkill. You raise a good point about znirk.

I have no excuse for this, other than that it isn't easy to mentally keep track of 22 players.

Remove FoS on Van.

I really don't want to have to resort to roleclaiming.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Lawrencelot » Sat Nov 21, 2015 10:58 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Lawrencelot, you said that we should lynch patzer, but you didn't vote. I'm interested to know why not.

I just forgot. I'm used to having my vote on patzer this game.

Vote: patzer

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Djehutynakht » Sat Nov 21, 2015 10:59 pm UTC

Vote: Patzer

An explanation to come, but mainly it's that I've been reading the arguments outlined.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Znirk » Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:22 pm UTC

Just quickly, because I'm phone-posting (away from proper computers since just before deadline)

1, whoever it was that checked on me is correct that I didn't use my night ability. No information in that, I can't see an advantage for any faction in lying about this.

2, I agree with Heather making me a nurse rather than doc. Turning me into a nurse is essrntially zero sum if I'm town, a gain if I'm anti. and making doctors before any investigation would have been a tad reckless.

Next step after i get back home is a good reread.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Sun Nov 22, 2015 8:13 am UTC

I did a reread on Vytron, here is a quick summary:

- starting immediately with an aside, he is the first to vote/unvote Suzaku, urging other players to do as well by declaring that everyone who doesn't is a scum. Lawrencelot and dimochka, two confirmed townies voted very early as well, therefore I believe that the D1 Suzaku issue can't provide any meaningful tells. D2 is different because of frogman's confirmation, I'll have to think about it.
- he defends ConMan in multiple posts.
- wants lovers to claim because he thinks they could be scum. Could have picked upon that, however I can't see why he would believe that such a ploy could work if he read the roles properly.
- defends his buddy by accident when voting for Lawrencelot, freudian slip. Hindsight is 20/20.
- lot of wine, warns about blindly following Sungura.
- defends Snark, SDK//freezeblade and patzer, continues to attack Lawrencelot.
- suddenly switches and votes SDK//freezeblade, starts to suspect Opus_723 and patzer and would be happy to lynch any of the three.

My impression is that he was most consistent in defending (or agreeing with) ConMan and Snark. He joined the train on Opus_723 only when it became very likely that he would be lynched but immediately started to provide alternatives in freezeblade and patzer. I have no idea if he defended his scum-buddies earlier and then joined the train on them later or if at first he legitimately tried to read them (to appear more townie and keep his alternatives open) and later started gunning for them to save his buddy. Would be very nice to know why Opus_723 did not dive, although he complained about internet issues so it might mean nothing.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby mpolo » Sun Nov 22, 2015 4:36 pm UTC

O.K. Palzer looks a little funny with the tunneling on various things. It's as though he's in a small group that includes Marco.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Van » Sun Nov 22, 2015 6:12 pm UTC

Hello! Forgive me for my absence! I did nothing but sleep and eat tacos yesterday and I don't regret that decision at all. I would like to say: Misnomer, I love the D2 flavor :D

I am not under mind control. Isn't this a bit strange, though? If every alien can mind control, shouldn't we have 2-4 people who are mind controlled?
Sabrar wrote:Van looks to have stayed consistent with targeting Znirk, however I'd still like if she would reiterate hisher reasoning

As I said in my original post, I felt like making doctors out of people we don't know the alignment of is a really bad idea. For now, at least.
If I create many doctors, things get bad really quickly. In particular, it's possible that I could manage to target two aliens or two werewolves and they could cross-protect. Also, because there is no accounting for doctoring, if town kills start getting blocked, it's a giant pool of wine as to which one of my doctors is blocking town kills.
If I create only one doctor, things are somewhat simpler. The main risk comes from me hitting a jester/druid/traitor, because their optimal play is to protect whoever town is suspicious of.
Sticking with "nurseblocking" people removes all the wine and all the risk.
Why target Znirk? For D1, I was looking at getting rid of anti-town abilities. My primary target was Opus. Znirk ranked high on that list because removing protections is not particularly pro-town. I also had a note about a gut feeling regarding his posts. After a re-read, I'm not 100% sure what I saw, and my note wasn't very specific.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Quick check-in to say that there were two anti-town on the Opus lynch. This means that 2 of:
Sungura, znirk, mpolo, Van, patzer, Djehutynakht
are scum. The others are either town or third party. Note that third party also includes traitors, so even if we find the two scum on that list, we need to keep an eye on them. With two wolves and two town dead that leaves us with 22 alive, of which a minimum of 4 are scum, but I'd guess it's probably more in the region of 6-7 at least.
Ok, this is amazing. I want to dig into this, but I keep getting interrupted. Pausing here, will pick up this afternoon.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Sun Nov 22, 2015 6:21 pm UTC

@Van: I apologize for using the wrong pronoun, tried to look up everyone in the 'Gender' thread but couldn't find you. I've made note of it for the future.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Sun Nov 22, 2015 6:23 pm UTC

EBWOP: thanks for explaining your reasoning, looks good to me at this time. Aliens could be withholding mind-control to mess with us, don't know if it's the optimal strategy for them.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby #HBC | YOLOSWAG » Sun Nov 22, 2015 7:31 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Quick check-in to say that there were two anti-town on the Opus lynch. This means that 2 of:
Sungura, znirk, mpolo, Van, patzer, Djehutynakht
are scum. The others are either town or third party. Note that third party also includes traitors, so even if we find the two scum on that list, we need to keep an eye on them.
OK.

patzer can go. I also looked back at znirk's posts and get a bad feeling...trying to put it into words. Okay, at lot of it is kind of theoretical talk and focused on the roles at first.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=112962&p=3880410#p3880410

znirk's language here jumped out at me. "I half-feel like I'm overthinking", going in circles about his thought process regarding Snark (who I really, really, thought was not a good D1 lynch to the point that I felt that scum would've latched onto his druid talk), and then saying that his suspicions are heavily influenced by "other (possibly scummy) people's posted opinion." The first two examples show a lot of caution on his behalf. I'm not sure if znirk is just having difficulty trying to find something to latch onto in the thread or is being careful but he's definitely being very careful with his word choice which I find more often to come from scum than town for obvious reasons. The second fits with my idea of scum jumping on the Snark-hate bandwagon. The third is what bothers me the most because it reads like he's trying to distance himself from his own suspicions by telling us they're based on what other people said. That's pretty scummy.

Sungura I wouldn't lynch. mpolo's a null for me but I haven't seen anything malicious, he kinda seems to float with the thread. Van I'm not sure about but she seemed to share a suspicion on znirk which gives me a good feeling. patzer's probably gonna get lynched today. That leaves Dje and his "I didn't care about D1 and y'all can deal" attitude actually strikes me as honest and coming likelier from an innocent who's just kind of bored with the details. I think scum in his situation would have probably said something to make themselves look better as opposed to the anti-town sentiment he expressed there. Also, the way he just jumped on the patzer wagon was so blatant that he looks more like an innocent who's not worried about how he comes off to the town. I think his play would be more meticulous/nuanced if he were scum. So that leaves znirk and patzer with me needing to do some serious reevaluation should they be innocent.

I may have time later to pluck through the playerlist but for now:

FOS patzer
FOS znirk

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Sun Nov 22, 2015 7:59 pm UTC

Let's just say that, if I have to, I can prove my innocence, but I don't want to have to do that.

Okay, out of those six players (me, znirk, sungura, van, mpolo, djekhutynakt), I think znirk is probably town, so it's down to {sungura, van, mpolo, djekutynakht).

Out of those, I've got a neutral read on everyone - disabling znirk is apparently helpful to town, but it could well be wine. Dj had no action last night; Sungura's action seems to be irrelevant, and mpolo gave a plausible result that doesn't give us much information. Nothing stands out from yesterday, either. I'm stumped.

unless Jimmy is lying of course.

Will be very helpful to receive Dr Ug's results.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Sun Nov 22, 2015 9:31 pm UTC

Finally had the time to reread D1 jimbobmacdoodle as promised (again, not complete summary just highlights):
Starts out with good looking suggestions and immediately asks for protection from night-kill as his ability is good for scum-hunting. While this is true, it immediately presents the question why scum didn't kill him first?
We know that werewolves either killed dimochka or weiyaoli. dimochka would have received super-tracker results on ConMan, whose ability we don't know.

Question: if ConMan's secret role happens to be a standard Paranoid Gun Owner, would dimochka's ability be considered as targeting him and activate it?

Regardless of the answer, werewolves could have easily choose someone else to perform their kill, so even if ConMan is one of them they didn't necessarily have to kill dimochka.
weiyaoli is another case, killing confirmed Mason is obviously good, however his power depends too much on other circumstances to be that scary.
Therefore jimbobmacdoodle surviving the night looks to be immediately suspicious.

Next he votes/unvotes Suzaku which is neutral, requests investigation on him and asks not to 'doctorify' ConMan. Might be scum trying to delay townie investigators, might easily be townie. No read from this.
Strong FoS on Lawrencelot, again no read based on this as that issue confused us all.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm suspicious of Vytron for not claiming something crazy by now :P

Based on the knowledge of Vytron's alignment this looks like scum having a bit of fun, however there might be some previous connection between them that could explain this which I'm not aware of on account to being new to this forum. (In a later post he states something along the lines of being also new here, so where would the above come from?)

Coming up next is some lengthy analysis of both roles and people. I feel that his analysis of roles is a bit generic and doesn't offer real insight (which he kind of explains later). His most scummy list include dimochka and Lawrencelot (along with patzer and Djehutynakht), considers Opus_723 and Vytron as neutral, specifically defending the former. In case patzer can really prove her innocence as stated before this looks incredibly scummy.
He rereads his previous scum-list, maintains FoS on Lawrencelot and patzer, downgrades dimochka and Djehutynakht to scum-leaning neutral mainly because lack of content. Suspects patzer being Alien which we know she's not. Looks to be genuine scum-hunting, however scum has equally good reason to do this.

Receives FoS from Vytron, explains himself, no follow-up. Looks at Opus_723, defends most of his posts, ends FoS-ing him due to 1 possible slip that could be retracted later if necessary. Maintains FoS on Opus_723 due to lurking. Opus_723 commented about having internet troubles which could serve as explanation. I have no reads based on these as they look townie but have just enough wriggle-room left to be scums distancing from each other.
Warns about the complications caused by diving, carefully suggests not piling anymore on Opus. Same issue here as above.

Overall my reads were obviously influenced by the information we received on D2, however with this hindsight I'm leaning towards jimbobmacdoodle being scum, likely werewolf.

FoS: jimbobmacdoodle

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Nov 22, 2015 9:45 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm suspicious of Vytron for not claiming something crazy by now :P

Based on the knowledge of Vytron's alignment this looks like scum having a bit of fun, however there might be some previous connection between them that could explain this which I'm not aware of on account to being new to this forum. (In a later post he states something along the lines of being also new here, so where would the above come from?)
To clarify this, it was pretty much meant as a joke. This is only my second game here (the other is ongoing), but I have read multiple games on the forum before starting myself. Vytron quite commonly does some crazy gambit/claim/weird thing early om, from what I've seen, both as town and scum, so not doing such was unusual.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Nov 22, 2015 9:59 pm UTC

I read through ConMan as promised, and nothing he said sounds scummy to me. Two things stood out:

dimochka intended to track ConMan and ended up dead. Slightly suspicious, but not enough to warrant a vote at this point; someone might have killed dim to make ConMan look suspicious or to get rid of a powerful investigative ability.
If ConMan is an alien, then he would have wanted dimochka dead, but he couldn't have killed dimochka, unless his secret ability is a kill, which seems unlikely. Although if he is alien, that may explain why only one player has claimed to be mind controlled: ConMan would have withheld his mind control to avoid dim's investigation.
If ConMan is a werewolf, it seems unlikely that he would have killed dimochka. Since only one of the werewolves carries out the kill, they could have just had someone else carry out the kill and get rid of a power more dangerous to them.
If ConMan is a lone wolf, then killing dimochka makes perfect sense. But, unless someone got roleblocked (since we have no protective powers except Marco, who used his kill instead), there's only one lone wolf in the game.

He chose not to break the tie for second place. This is odd, and probably not the best move for town!ConMan, but I don't see what scum!ConMan has to gain from a no lynch, unless freezeblade and patzer are both on his scum team.

In short: dim's death is weak evidence of ConMan being a lone wolf, and his failure to break the tie is weak evidence of him being alien/werewolf on a team with patzer and freezeblade, but neither of those make a particularly compelling case against him.

I'll try to reread the posts from the last couple days and post comments in a little while.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Nov 22, 2015 10:36 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:With two wolves and two town dead that leaves us with 22 alive, of which a minimum of 4 are scum, but I'd guess it's probably more in the region of 6-7 at least.

Correction: at least 5 remaining scum (at least 6 assuming Suzaku withheld their kill and ConMan doesn't have a kill): there are at least 3 werewolves and 2 aliens left, and one of the kills was almost certainly a lone wolf. Plus at least one traitor.

Sabrar wrote:Djehutynakht's ability looks terrifying in the hands of scum

I never thought of that, but yes, a triple roleblock in the hands of scum would be bad. I'll have to look into DJ later.

Nothing else really stood out in the last few days' posts, except that only one person has claimed mind-control. I think these are all the possible explanations:
1. Someone lied about not being mind-controlled. I can't think of any reason why anyone would do so.
2. Aliens withheld mind-control to mess with us. If there are more than 2 aliens, then withholding all but 2 mind controls would make sense, but I don't see why they would withhold all but one.
3. ConMan is alien and withheld his mind-control to avoid detection by dimochka. Plausible.
4. At least one player who hasn't posted yet in D2 (are there any other than Dr Ug?) was mind-controlled. Seems likely, since Dr Ug is someone whose ability they would want to influence, but we'll have to wait and find out.
5. At least one of the players who was nightkilled was also targeted with mind-control. Possible.
6. Someone's mind-control got roleblocked. Only possible if mpolo is lying and either Yoloswag is lying or ConMan can roleblock, so seems unlikely.
7. ConMan's secret ability isn't a roleblock but still has something to do with why only one player was mind-controlled (possibly a redirect of some kind).

Actually, now that I think about, I'm leaning towards ConMan being alien. I don't think I'll vote just yet though, since we still haven't heard from Dr Ug (and possible others?), and a second player claiming to be mind-controlled would substantially weaken the case against him.

FoS ConMan

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Sun Nov 22, 2015 11:25 pm UTC

Players who did not yet post on D2:
ConMan
Diemo
Dr Ug

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby ConMan » Mon Nov 23, 2015 4:02 am UTC

Egads. I suspect that scum killed dimochka in the hopes of (a) making me look bad, and (b) taking out a target that might not be so well protected at this stage. Certainly I am unaware of any paranoia, and I already knew dim wasn't going to see anything interesting in watching me, so I had no concerns about him investigating.

I understand Van's reasoning for what she did, but I don't like it. I still think we need more kills out there - especially given that we now know we have 5 days left to get 2-3 aliens - and as far as I can tell we don't even have much in the way of evidence as to who they might be.

FoS: Van

Also, I guess we have at least a little confirmation of Suzaku's towniness. There's still every chance he and frogman are on the same team, but surely we can sort that out fairly soon.

Vote: Suzaku
Unvote

And for those thinking me a bit scummy for withholding my vote at the end of D1, fair enough. The only thing I have to say to that is that I had a busy day at work, and when I made my last post before deadline it was also just as I was about to go to bed, so I didn't exactly have much motivation to completely re-read the thread and work out if I thought Opus was scummy or not.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Nov 23, 2015 9:04 am UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:With two wolves and two town dead that leaves us with 22 alive, of which a minimum of 4 are scum, but I'd guess it's probably more in the region of 6-7 at least.

Correction: at least 5 remaining scum (at least 6 assuming Suzaku withheld their kill and ConMan doesn't have a kill): there are at least 3 werewolves and 2 aliens left, and one of the kills was almost certainly a lone wolf. Plus at least one traitor.
FoS jimbobmacdoodle for not being able to count (or possibly read).

Revised estimate: 7-8 scum remaining. I did some more thinking about the implications of those numbers. We have 2 in the Opus voters. This suggests to me 5-6 (min 3) of the remaining 16 are scum. Lynching at random would actually mean we have a higher chance of hitting scum by lynching non-Opus voters. Of course, we can do better by looking at the behaviour. For reference, I wasn't including traitors.

I'm not sure I follow ConMan's reasoning here:
ConMan wrote:I understand Van's reasoning for what she did, but I don't like it. I still think we need more kills out there - especially given that we now know we have 5 days left to get 2-3 aliens - and as far as I can tell we don't even have much in the way of evidence as to who they might be.
Are you saying that Van should have chosen a different person to nurseify, so that Znirk could potentially prevent a Marco heal? To me this reasoning sounds odd. Also, any reason you think there aren't 4 aliens?
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