Smalltown Werewolf PYP - F is for Finished!

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mpolo
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby mpolo » Mon Nov 23, 2015 4:07 pm UTC

The post from Con Man is not helping me think of him as innocent. He is fairly wildly self-defensive and pings me in the extreme.

Vote: Con Man

There's obviously time to change that, and we don't have to go rushing into a wagon, but that is hitting me harder than anything did yesterday.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby crucialityfactor » Mon Nov 23, 2015 4:13 pm UTC

Still trying to get caught up on the day's postings. But just had some thoughts on the mind controls.

1. It behooves the aliens to not use all of their mind controls, because then their numbers would be betrayed. The mystery that surrounds them is really their strength. So, maybe they are just playing it slow.

OR

2. One or more of their mind control targets ended up dead this morning. I can see wei as a decent target for mind control. But, we did receive word that no night actions failed right? Is a mind control considered failed if the target is also killed?

OR

3. More metagaming. We have some pretty inactive players. Not out of the realm of possibility that some of these inactives are aliens that missed the deadline?

Here's the list of most inactive players from page 9

faubiguy 6
moody7277 6
dimochka 5
frogman 5
Diemo 4
Suzaku 4
weiyaoli 4 *DEAD*
Dr Ug 1
RoadieRich 1


It would not surprise me if one or two from this group is an alien.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby crucialityfactor » Mon Nov 23, 2015 4:31 pm UTC

EBWOP: Dimo is dead too. Cannot keep track of the D names in this game :/

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Mon Nov 23, 2015 5:46 pm UTC

@crucialityfactor
mpolo wrote:As we might guess from the mass of deaths, there were no failed actions last night. This does not include any actions which may have not occured due to someone dying, according to a helpful note at the end of my QA report.

So no real information.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Nov 23, 2015 5:59 pm UTC

crucialityfactor wrote:We have some pretty inactive players. Not out of the realm of possibility that some of these inactives are aliens that missed the deadline?

Good point, I completely ignored that possibility.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby crucialityfactor » Mon Nov 23, 2015 6:48 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@crucialityfactor
mpolo wrote:As we might guess from the mass of deaths, there were no failed actions last night. This does not include any actions which may have not occured due to someone dying, according to a helpful note at the end of my QA report.

So no real information.


Yeah, ok, that's the most logical way of doing things.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Misnomer » Mon Nov 23, 2015 6:55 pm UTC

sabrar wrote:Question: if ConMan's secret role happens to be a standard Paranoid Gun Owner, would dimochka's ability be considered as targeting him and activate it?
Hypothetically, yes.

crucialityfactor wrote:Is a mind control considered failed if the target is also killed?
I will not be revealing night action resolution order. But if said action was resolved after the kill, then yes it would count as failed.


Votals:

Djehutynakht (1): moody7277
patzer (3): jimbobmacdoodle, Lawrencelot, Djehutynakht
ConMan (1): mpolo

Not voting (16): Dr Ug, YOLOSWAG, Faubiguy, Suzaku, Frogman, Snark, ConMan, Diemo, cruicalityfactor, Sungura, znirk, SirGabriel, Van, patzer, roadierich, Sabrar

Game Status:
Freezeblade is currently voteless.
Znirk is currently a Nurse.
3 Tenure Committee members remain alive.
11 votes are required to majority lynch.
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Mon Nov 23, 2015 7:11 pm UTC

crucialityfactor wrote:Still trying to get caught up on the day's postings. But just had some thoughts on the mind controls.

1. It behooves the aliens to not use all of their mind controls, because then their numbers would be betrayed. The mystery that surrounds them is really their strength. So, maybe they are just playing it slow.

OR

2. One or more of their mind control targets ended up dead this morning. I can see wei as a decent target for mind control. But, we did receive word that no night actions failed right? Is a mind control considered failed if the target is also killed?

OR

3. More metagaming. We have some pretty inactive players. Not out of the realm of possibility that some of these inactives are aliens that missed the deadline?

Here's the list of most inactive players from page 9

faubiguy 6
moody7277 6
dimochka 5
frogman 5
Diemo 4
Suzaku 4
weiyaoli 4 *DEAD*
Dr Ug 1
RoadieRich 1


It would not surprise me if one or two from this group is an alien.


1) True, but in this case surely the aliens would used two mind controls rather than one? That still doesn't reveal their numbers.

2) Definitely possible. Statistically rather unlikely, though.

3) possible. But misnomer did advise us to send preliminary actions early, before possibly changing them later. Plus aliens don't have a lot to gain by waiting before placing their mind control.

Adding to your list:

4) a werewolf or third party was targeted by mind control, and they think it would be to their benefit to not reveal their mind control. (e.g. to sow confusion among the town, or to avoid drawing attention to them)

It could well be a combination of several of these; I think 4) is most likely but all are definitely possible.
If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands. –Douglas Adams

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sungura » Mon Nov 23, 2015 8:03 pm UTC

Preamble - I am writing this partially as I read through, as I want to make my own observations uninhibited by other's thoughts. So please read this in entirety. I will tl/dr at the end if you can't be arsed to appreciate the hours I put into this.

Weiyoli - why kill them? this is clearly a scum move
Dimochia - again, why kill them? scum move
I can't see either of those being hit by town, because neither were under much question. There were MUCH better targets. So these are scum kills. In addition, scum prefer to target town that has not come under much suspicion, as they can often create a lynch of a town who *is* under suspicion.

Vytron - as assuming we have lone wolf(s) they shouldn't be that stupid to attack someone who the town thought was scummy. This doesn't preclude someone being alien-alignment killing them, as say, for example, Suzaku or HBC is an alien, they would want to take out werewolfs that would kill the aliens, as that is one of the alien's current biggest threats as far as kills go. So alien or townside kill.

So...I think we have the werewolves, at least one lone wolf, and at least one kill on not-werewolf side.

With Weiyoli flipping mason, Larwence is confirmed, and let me just say, to all those who thought I was scummy for believing him, and scummy for thinking opus was scum, can we please move on? CLEARLY I can read people well. not to say I'm never wrong, but hopefully that proves my points I made yesterday.

CLAIMED actions:
CF: Sabrer can't chat
Frog: Suzaku is town
HBC: Killed Vytron
Patzr: Znrik didn't do anything
jimbob: Two of: Sungura, znirk, mpolo, Van, patzer, Djehutynakht are scum (either alien or wolf). The others are either town or third party.
SDK/Freeze: didn't use action

Jimbob seems to be suspicious but supporting of SDK/Freeze, and attacks Patzr for them suggesting to doctor known town rather than use kill. And now there is a quick mini-bus on patzr of Jimbob, DJ, and and Lawrence. I REALLY don't like this. Jim bob is pinging me.

______analysis-y stuff______
So, day 1 I never liked the gambit of voting/unvoting Suzaku, and turns out it was started by scum. This to me is EXTREMELY interesting, as it was indeed Vytron who started it, and to me seems like an organized effort on the part of the werewolves to make themselves 1) look town and 2) make sure all town *also* make themselves targets. To this effect, getting the ball rolling I expect a LOT of the early votes/unvotes are werewolves. Starting Order: Vytron (werewolf), Snark (couldn't actually, but put it out there), dimochia (town), znirk, lawrence (townmason), sirgabriel, jimbob, cf, opus (werewolf), Patzr, mpolo. Fabiguy and Frog and Conman agree with me it is bad to trust Suzaku. To me it looks like werewolfs started it, then started waiting for town to weight in, between. Probably aliens in there as well, to not stand out.

HBC/SKD(freeze) have a funky exchange that seems innocent enough to start, and then SDK(freeze) posts the really odd Suzaku post with an "I guess aliens should be our targets?" half commital nonsense with a stupid question to boot. DJ then joke-suggests SDK vote, and SKD replies in kind with actual vote on DJ. SDK also is the first to suggest the suzaku vote/unvote, but does NOT do it. DJ then votes SDK.

Fabiguy in their first post suggests Weiyoli is the only hitch for scum with investigative roles. THIS i find super interesting considering that Weiyoli was killed last night. In the same post, Fabiguy is talking a lot about investigations. I really think our investigations are largly controled by anti-scum factions. When I posted about this possibility and our need for checks and balances on those rolls yesterday, guess who said I was wrong? VYTRON - aka werewolf. To me, this all CONFIRMS that our investigations are largely controlled by scum - probably werewolves. With Weiyoli dead and investigations kept in-house, they have free reign to lie their way to control, and by the time we catch on, it will be too late. Therefore, I will be putting *very little stock into any and all investigations*. And I put an FOS on Fabiguy.

In addition, Jimbob had the investigative role of how many anti-town are on a vote. I find it VERY VERY interesting that there are two anti-town of six. This is a nice...safe number. In a game of 26, all town could EASILY have lynched a player right now, and other than DJ, none of the people on the Opus train do I find scummy. This combined with the earlier clues people dropped unknwonlingly about scum controlling investigations, I do believe Jimbob is lying. I don't think anyone who voted Opus is scum. I think Patzr is being really weird, but I haven't noticed anything particularly anti-town, just confusion, so I am putting them in "third party" camp. They strike me as a confused player. They seem to be distancing or connecting, so I'm thinking sibling survivor, or druid, or something. Weird is going on, but I don't believe it to be alien or werewolf.

DJ has been in and out of thought. Jumping into people's sights and back out again. From what I've seen on this forum, they are a well adapted player and are tossing on the edge of joking, being dumb, and being smart in their analysis. To me, this is playing a jester, messing around with everyone. But they've done it well, playing off of other players who play into it. Smart move.

ConMan has been quite the subject of discussion, and I can't get a read on them. That worries me.

SDK did nothing to help the town, and a lot to throw out wine. They never made themselves a target (I think freeze did, after replacing in). Their joking back and forth with DJ I think is a roll of DJ leading the way, but the back and forth with suzaku worries me, and as I said targeting werewolves is *good* for aliens. Now, Frog said Suzaku is town, but that doesn't mean that Frog and suzaku are on the same team. As I said, I am quite sure the scum are controlling our investigations. I really think SDK(freeze) is alien, and with at least some/all of: HBC, Frog, and Suzaku. I know they were replaced by freeze, who is playing a much better game, but if you notice they have tried very hard to distance themselves from early SDK, so I think they agree that SDK was not playing well and were confused by them. Which to me, confirms it.

CF I feel like is blindly following me, and I don't like that. They used to do that a lot as scum, but yet, in their bit of independent analysis I can't find much I disagree with more than anyone else I find townie. So...igmeoy.

___TLDR___
ALIENS:
SDK (freeze) - definitely alien, along with some/all of:
HBC, Frog, Suzaku

WOLVES:
JimBob
Fabiguy

JESTER:
DJ

TOWN:
Sungura
znirk
mpolo
Van
Lawrence

3rd PARTY OF SOME KIND
patzer

Rest...I don't know.

I think we will get the MOST info from getting rid of SDK(Freeze) at the moment, and we NEED To hit aliens today/tonight. There are 2-4 aliens, and we have four lynches left before they invade. So we may need every single lynch.

VOTE: SDK/Freezblade

I will NOT being doing the suzaku vote/unvote until we decipher what factions are controlling what roles.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sungura » Mon Nov 23, 2015 8:07 pm UTC

ETA: I didn't quite clarify why Jimbob's choice of two scum in the vote for Opus was so safe and logical to lie about - of those voting, only two (DJ, and Patzr) have been coming under any suspicion, so it's a great easy way to get rid of two non-scums, in a way that is easy to lie. We go after DJ/Patzr, and when they come back not scum, we go after two more in that cycle. It is a low number that takes at least 2 days to figure out they lied, which is huge leadtime. I outlined the rest of my reasoning in the above post including where I believe DJ and Patzr really lie (3rd parties).
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Van » Mon Nov 23, 2015 9:55 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Van: I apologize for using the wrong pronoun, tried to look up everyone in the 'Gender' thread but couldn't find you. I've made note of it for the future.
It's okay! Apparently I never posted there? Regardless, fixed now.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Quick check-in to say that there were two anti-town on the Opus lynch. This means that 2 of:
Sungura, znirk, mpolo, Van, patzer, Djehutynakht
are scum.
Back to this. pre-posting-edit: was planning to analyze list, got sidetracked with Sungura and her jimbob analysis, I might come back to it later
Sungura: Started the push for Opus, and she was pretty grumpy about the lack of posting and e.g. Vytron's "unhelpful" posts. At the very least, we can be positive she's not a werewolf. She had a reputation for nailing scum (see D1) and getting murdered for it, so I've usually seen her hold back a bit. But then there is this post. My bet: she's either frustrated town or a druid, but I can't tell the difference.
Sungura wrote:In addition, Jimbob had the investigative role of how many anti-town are on a vote. I find it VERY VERY interesting that there are two anti-town of six. This is a nice...safe number.
This part is a little mindblowing. With this + her followup post, it sounds like she's claiming jimbob is scum and trying to trade up to 4 town for himself (as scum). On the one hand, I almost want this to be true because I can totally appreciate the strategy behind it, but on the other, I think it has some holes. Consider: after two deaths out of six, we have a 60% chance of hitting at least one scum with purely random NKs. Worse, jimbob have to invent another count for tomorrow's vote, but his power is restricted to counting anti-town roles. So it only tracks were/lone wolves and aliens.

Crap, I think I'm convincing myself she might be right, just because it'd be such a great move if it worked. Ok, let's look at jimbob's posting instead.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:If we all go down this route <<of voting to enable Suzaku's vote>>, I think it is vital that we clear Suzaku somehow, so for that reason I'd suggest investigative roles (e.g. Darryl, Calvin, frogman etc) should target him tonight to verify his claim.
This whole argument on D1 really struck me as muddying the waters, so it kind of makes sense to me that scum were behind the initiation of the vote. If Suzaku was a full vig, no one would go "oh my god, we've got to cop this guy ASAP!", but suddenly because we can turn his power on/off, that's a thing? I will say that he was obsessed with killing during D1. And aliens. See:
Whilst there are plenty of night kills, with this many players, I could easily see one of 4 aliens being able to lie low and simply get ignored by everyone.
I strongly disapprove of anybody trying to reduce the number of kills. Reducing the number of kills could be a very alien thing to do
Obviously potentially wine, but I could see there being no aliens on the Suzaku vote train

I think this is more anti-alien than pro-town, but I'm not seeing anything overly scummy in his posting. He does something here where he basically says "I didn't see Opus as suspicious, but other people do. Now I'll analyze him. He's kind of suspicious, but I'd rather lynch other people." Is that scummy without the hindsight that Opus was a werewolf? Ehhh, I don't think so. I think I agree with Sungura that if jimbob is scum, he's probably a werewolf (based on that post). I think I want to see jimbob's reaction before I make a decision here.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby ConMan » Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:33 pm UTC

I'm not sure I follow ConMan's reasoning here:
ConMan wrote:I understand Van's reasoning for what she did, but I don't like it. I still think we need more kills out there - especially given that we now know we have 5 days left to get 2-3 aliens - and as far as I can tell we don't even have much in the way of evidence as to who they might be.
Are you saying that Van should have chosen a different person to nurseify, so that Znirk could potentially prevent a Marco heal? To me this reasoning sounds odd. Also, any reason you think there aren't 4 aliens?[/quote]
Just general difficulty with basic reading comprehension. I think I was looking at a bunch of the roles and probably saw the Masons or Sibling Survivors and thought the Aliens had the same count.

As for the Van thing, I just think that if I had her role then I would not be pseudo-roleblocking kills at this stage. I'd probably prioritise some of the self-protecting roles. Heck, I'd probably make Perry a doctor for safety's sake (even though *I* know that there's nothing untowards about Perry, Heather-me obviously wouldn't). For me, nursifying a kill role suggests that she feels that it's likely the kill is not on her team, and this early in the game you can only know that if you already know who your team *is*.

That said, I do have a small clue that Van is less likely to be scum than, say, Djehutynakht. Not that that's particularly helpful at this point.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:55 pm UTC

3 quick observations before going to bed.

- ConMan wanted to quote jimbobmacdoodle from the end of last page, just to clear up the confusion.

- The first and so far only post from Dr Ug was last Wednesday, a week after the game started.
Could we have a mod prod on Dr Ug please?

- moody7277 stated that the probability of frogman and Suzaku being on the same scum-team is less than 10% so he's not worried about it. Something about this kept nagging at me and I finally figured it out. This assumption is only considering the random distribution of the alignments and does not take into account the players' actions afterwards. To put it into another perspective, hypothetically if frogman's alien buddy happened to be #HBC | YOLOSWAG then obviously we would have seen frogman trying to clear him up first and not bother with Suzaku. Therefore at this point the possibility stops being unlikely just because it was random.
Note: I'm not saying that moody7277 omitted this part deliberately as this is an easy mistake to make.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Van » Tue Nov 24, 2015 1:45 am UTC

ConMan wrote:As for the Van thing, I just think that if I had her role then I would not be pseudo-roleblocking kills at this stage. I'd probably prioritise some of the self-protecting roles. Heck, I'd probably make Perry a doctor for safety's sake (even though *I* know that there's nothing untowards about Perry, Heather-me obviously wouldn't). For me, nursifying a kill role suggests that she feels that it's likely the kill is not on her team, and this early in the game you can only know that if you already know who your team *is*.
Karl the Karateka (Znirk)
Hi-ya! Karl the Karateka is a keen practitioner of karate. Each day, he may send in the name of another player to perform a karate chop on that night. If successful, the target will be sufficiently weakened that they will lose all protections they might otherwise have from player actions for the remainder of the night.
I nurseblocked someone who can remove player protections, not someone with a kill. If Znirk is scum, this is a great thing. If Znirk is town, this really has no effect (he can't coordinate with someone to make them NK his target anyway).
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby ConMan » Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:17 am UTC

Van wrote:
ConMan wrote:As for the Van thing, I just think that if I had her role then I would not be pseudo-roleblocking kills at this stage. I'd probably prioritise some of the self-protecting roles. Heck, I'd probably make Perry a doctor for safety's sake (even though *I* know that there's nothing untowards about Perry, Heather-me obviously wouldn't). For me, nursifying a kill role suggests that she feels that it's likely the kill is not on her team, and this early in the game you can only know that if you already know who your team *is*.
Karl the Karateka (Znirk)
Hi-ya! Karl the Karateka is a keen practitioner of karate. Each day, he may send in the name of another player to perform a karate chop on that night. If successful, the target will be sufficiently weakened that they will lose all protections they might otherwise have from player actions for the remainder of the night.
I nurseblocked someone who can remove player protections, not someone with a kill. If Znirk is scum, this is a great thing. If Znirk is town, this really has no effect (he can't coordinate with someone to make them NK his target anyway).

Bah. I feel like I have completely failed at all reading comprehension this game - and I know it's my forte, but I seem to be doing so much more of it this time around. I don't know why I thought Karl's ability was directly kill-related, especially since when I went through and categorised it as a non-kill when I reviewed the roles. I'm going to go hide myself in a corner, re-read the roles and teams, and come back when I actually understand what's going on.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:04 am UTC

ConMan wrote:I'm going to go hide myself in a corner, re-read the roles and teams, and come back when I actually understand what's going on.
If you're as confused as I get when I try and look at everything going on, I'll see you around Christmas! (More seriously, this is broadly why I am focusing on only a few things at any one time).

I haven't got time to write a really big post for the next few days, but will try and reread the posts finding me suspicious and respond generally to them at that point. In the meantime, if anybody has anything specific they want me to comment on, please say so, and I'll try to reply.

I can't really find too much fault with Sungura's post, apart from her conclusions re. me. Yes, 2 is a nice safe number for a made up result. Unfortunately, it's also the most likely number (possibly with 3, but I can't be bothered to do maths), assuming the votes are in roughly the same distribution as the player alignments. I accept that they might not be. Also note that I am not advocating that we specifically go after the 2 scum amongst the Opus voters.

In response to Van re. the kill focus: I'm not really surprised that it sounds anti-alien, as that is whom I am most concerned about. I don't think it's likely we'll be able to take out all the aliens through lynching alone, so our kills are important to achieve this.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Misnomer » Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:48 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Could we have a mod prod on Dr Ug please?

A repeat-prod will be sent to Dr Ug. Replacement will take place by day end if necessary, with a modkill occurring immediately before the lynch if no replacement can be found.
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Lawrencelot » Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:57 am UTC

ConMan wrote:Egads. I suspect that scum killed dimochka in the hopes of (a) making me look bad, and (b) taking out a target that might not be so well protected at this stage. Certainly I am unaware of any paranoia, and I already knew dim wasn't going to see anything interesting in watching me, so I had no concerns about him investigating.

This post stands out to me, probably because I used the excuse of 'scum wants to make me look bad' more when I was scum myself than when I was town. The b) is irrelevant as there are no doctors (only Marco I think).

FoS: Conman

I hadn't considered patzer being third, that might actually be more likely than him being scum. There are some ties to him but they are not so strong.

Unvote

For the rest I agree with mpolo's sentiments about Conman, and with most of Sungura's analysis, except that I am not as sure about the aliens and I think jimbob looks town. Sungura, could you elaborate more on why Freezeblade has to be alien and not werewolf or third for example?

Also, Van feels real townie to me, and I strongly agree that Dje could be a jesters so I hope someone kills him soon (Roadierich? time to prove your worth). Also because of his power.

About frogman/Suzaku: you can't look at the probabilities, it's just as likely that they are both the same alignment as that two people who actually have the same alignment have the same alignment, so that says nothing. I don't think Frogman would lie about Suzaku being town, it would be very risky for them, unless their scum group has more investigative roles. So I think Suzaku is more likely to be town, but Frogman can still be scum.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby moody7277 » Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:09 pm UTC

Decided to go over the list of Opus voters to figure if I could see who I think is scum. This despite the claim already proposed that it may be wine. Even so, it's better to do analysis in subsets for this game, and this is almost as good as any.

Van- had her as slightly townie in previous read
znirk- had them as townie in previous read
DJ- current vote

mpolo- bit of role and alignment spec, with some cautionary notes from last game. remenicences of Sungura's scum finding prowess. votes/unvotes D1, some concern over Lawr, and Opus. votes Opus. D2 spec over number of kills, not under mind control, voting ConMan. nothing too outrageous, a couple of apologies for not keeping up with the thread, neutral to slightly townie.

Sungura- role spec, missed role randomization condition at first, very concerned over the Suzaku deal, suspicious of Opus, votes Opus, also suspicious of DJ, jimbob, not suspicious of Lawr, discusses number of possible kills, more alignment spec, happy with SDK lynch. D2 with suggesting which two of the Opus voters is scum, not mind controled, analysis of kills, big analysis post with several suspects, votes fb. Despite the volume of posts, she seems very comfortable in the game, and Opus's flip shows her ability is still sharp. townie.

patzer- votes DJ over him asking about the secret, some more follow on about ConMan, does the vote/unvote thing with reservations, votes Lawr, also suspicious of Sungura, unvotes after mason claim, then revotes after input from Sabrar.

patzer wrote:I'd wager that he's a werewolf pretending to be a third party pretending to be a mason.


My first thought on that was it sounded like that Henry Mancini movie. It also sounds way too complex to be an actual read. unvotes again, then switches to Opus while saying no one besides Lawr looks scummy

patzer wrote:Two werewolves dead. Yay!


which most people seem to think is scummy looking, tracked znirk to no one, is not under mind control, votes/unvotes Suzaku D2, response to cf's mind control spec. Overall, my opinion of her was steadily declining as I read, so right now she looks scummy enough to be my lynchable list.

Currently lynchable:

DJ, fb, patzer, Sabrar
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:44 pm UTC

@moody7277: please explain why you included me in your lynchable list. You've only mentioned me once before in any of your analyses (here), otherwise this comes completely out of the blue. Also several people expressed their opinion that Djehutynakht is possibly a Jester and yet you do not analyze him again or consider changing your vote. This is very suspicious and surprising for me, as so far I've read you as mainly townie.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Suzaku » Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:09 pm UTC

Well, I can honestly say that I still have no idea what's going on. I'm having real problems trying to break everything down into bitesize chunks which I can chew on.

Some thoughts; not sure how organised, or even coherent this will be:

D1 Patzer comes across scummy as all getout. D2 less so, but not really convincing either.
Doesn't seem to have any strong views on anyone, which is understandable, but is posting a lot of fluff to conceal that fact.

Something seemed off to me about SDK, and freezeblade hasn't done anything to improve that opinion. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they were trying to get lynched - although I can't specifically point out anything that screams 'jester'.

Sungura appears to me to be townie. She certainly has a healthy scepticism about voting me just to allow me to target her. Problem here is that I can see that argument going both ways, town want to avoid town!me miskilling them and scum!me killing them because I'm scum, and scum want to avoid town!me correctly killing them and scum-but-not-the-same-flavour!me killing them because not my team. It's actually marginally more likely that town would be more afraid of me than scum (meta: especially if you've seen how bad my scumdar can be), although Lawrencelot shows that that is by no means universally true.

As a slight aside, I disagree completely with Amy on the subject of how much to trust investigations. Even scum!investigators have strong incentives not to lie about results, not least of which is that a false result is an instant death sentence after the target flips, and we can expect to have a large number of flips given the number of potential/confirmed killing abilities. Individual scum teams are not very big compared to the total number of players, and all scum teams want to kill each other as well. It might be less than convincing for me to argue this after a claimed town investigation result on me, but I believe it to be that case regardless. If I were a scum investigator, I would be looking to find other-flavoured scum and gain townie cred for reporting them. If I confirmed a couple of townies on the way, no big deal.

1 a.m. == bed time.

AFAICS, there's no set deadline yet, so there's plenty of time for developments, but going with my strongest read at this point:

Vote: Patzer

IRL note: I have no time to sit and do full analysis of connections between players, so my thoughts are necessarily going to to be somewhat fragmentary, especially with this number of players/posts. (I can't always tell what a given post is responding to.) If I'm asked a direct question, I should be able to answer relatively quickly, though.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sungura » Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:15 pm UTC

Sungura, could you elaborate more on why Freezeblade has to be alien and not werewolf or third for example?

I am more going at the SDK posts - they *joke* about going after aliens but then focus only on wolves. They half suggest the Suzaku gambit but dont make themself a target. Freezeblade has done a better job but has very much tried to distance from SDK play. That means townie playing badly, or scum. The attack level on wolves was almost town level, but not aliens. So if scum, alien. Jesters needed to play smart day one, so sdk/freeze cant be a jester. Third parties tend to blend with town or seem like fishy town. Sdk was just scummy. The first posts of Freezeblades to me seemed like playing catchup to redeem themsleves which as i said could make sense in both scenarios but in the end i dont think it can be recovered from the SDK play. Freezeblade i feel is parroting a lot of the right things. They knew what they had to do to appear town from all of yesterdays suspicion and thats what they did, no more no less. They are playing it safe trying to recover. Fair enough, but i see day ones play as too damning and i havnt seen anything day 2 to change my mind.

Ninja by suzaku, nothing really to add. I see their point but yup, sorry, i trust my scumdar way better than theirs. If there is more confirmation of suzakus alignment id be inclined to vote, but would you really kill me? No. Way more scummy players out there. Youd only kill me if you are scum. So...you can see why i have no plans to jump on that gambit anytime soon.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sungura » Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:26 pm UTC

I strongly agree that Dje could be a jesters so I hope someone kills him soon (Roadierich? time to prove your worth). Also because of his power.

This is a bad idea. We have aliens the kill needs to be used for first. Since people seem to want a patzr lynch (i still dont agree with that for today), why not ask RR to kill SDK/freeze if not lynched - people seem to agree that sdk/freeze is at least scum. A jester who stays in the game a bit isnt the worst thing. They loose if they arent lynched. So if they live until end game they still loose! No nees to waste a kill.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Lawrencelot » Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:36 pm UTC

Ok, my alien radar is not so strong but you were one of the few together with SirGabriel who were right about me. Plus, I thought SDK was scummy anyway, so even if he's not alien I'm pretty sure he'll turn up werewolf.

Vote: Freezeblade

Other people I think are non-town: Djehutynakht (might be jester), patzer (scum or third), ConMan (scum or third)

People I think are town: Van, Sungura, jimbobmcdoodle, Suzaku, Sabrar

@SirGabriel: how do you feel about ConMan now, any change since last time?

@roadierich: why should we let you kill? Please post more or I will vote for you again. You are making one post per game day instead of one per real life day.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Lawrencelot » Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:38 pm UTC

Ninja'd: yes, killing aliens is more important, but Djehutynakht can really cause some damage to town with his power. So I'm not sure, it's up to the town killing roles.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:40 pm UTC

Suzaku wrote:Patzer ... doesn't seem to have any strong views on anyone, which is understandable, but is posting a lot of fluff to conceal that fact.


Really? I thought I had make it quite clear that I don't have strong reads on anyone; wasn't trying to conceal that. Sorry if it seemed that way. :|
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby crucialityfactor » Tue Nov 24, 2015 6:52 pm UTC

Ok, trying to get some thoughts and analysis in before I am swept away by hosting my first Thanksgiving. Putting everything in spoilers to keep things looking cleaner.


Patzer

Spoiler:
More and more I am thinking that Patzer wants to be lynched. It doesn't make sense to be so active and not have any opinions good or bad on anyone else at this point. I will only be voting for patzer today if it won't lead to their lynch. I really don't want to have to sacrifice my ability tonight if I don't have to, so hopefully we can find another candidate. It also doesn't make sense for patzer to be alien because of my mind controlled vote. I think for that reason alone we should find another target that is more likely to be an alien. Yesterday we did a good job at finding someone who was scummy. Today we need to focus that a bit more and find someone who is alieny. If we don't today then we are looking at a day 3 where 2-4 aliens are still alive and we'll be forced into a semi-lylo situation where we need to hit 100% on aliens with lynches.


SDK/Freezeblade

Spoiler:
Played Loosey Goosey for the first few pages. Quick, non-serious posts and some sort of joke? vote against DJ. Kept promising real posts. Didn't come.

I think he flat out denied lawrence's claim, but then voted for snark in the same post. With no reasoning or elaboration.

Then, came back saying that people voting for lawrence were pinging him because you don't lynch someone who claims mason. Snark replied by questioning if SDK really took the time to read an understand the posts that he thought were so scummy.

Then, he asked to be replaced.

Up until this point he was looking super jestery. In my read-through that I'm doing as I write this post, once he asked to be replaced it all sort of fell into place for me as being a player trying to be active but just not having the time to really read and reply properly.

To me any real evaluation is going to have to take place from the point that freezeblade took over and good luck with that!

Hi everyone!

I've been skimming this thread for a bit, so I have a slight inkling about what's going on, but nothing in very much detail. I'll be doing a more in-depth look, until that time I'm going to

unvote

From my skimming, I feel I should comment on my predecessor's play. I didn't understand SDK's plays or reasoning, but then, I don't typically understand his play on D1, and have ended up in earlier games decided to ignore it, as it does more damage to town discussing it than ignoring it (There's lots of discussion between us and his play in the meta thread).

More to come!


Naturally first order of business was to unvote and distance them-self from such strange and haphazard posting. I think this post is pinging me as being a bit defensive, but not damning enough for me to want to lynch at the moment.

Then asks how to best use their power, was leaning towards not using it, and it seems like that is the case. Certainly a pro-town looking move.

Posted that they weren't under control and didn't use their power. So kind of a nothing post.

Nothing since then.

So basically all we have to go on right now is the weird and clumsy play of SDK and a few nothing posts from freezeblade. Would really love more content and I was really surprised how little there was from both players. Freezeblade was introduced about a week ago. So it really shouldn't be about needing to catch up on the thread. I'm worried about them going inactive at this point more than anything else really. Definitely just need some content at this point.


faubiguy

Spoiler:
Has an interesting role. Kind of like diving in front of someone to take a bullet if I'm understanding it correctly.

In his first post, he points out that it's best for everyone to just post their investigation results publicly, that they should be taken with a grain of salt because some can be scum, but that Weiyaoli can act as a sort of check on that assuming that he isn't scum aligned with his targeted player. Also wants people to post if they were mind controlled. Goes on to point out that the killing roles could be dangerous, but are at least somewhat publicly in check. As a whole, it's a very balanced and well reasoned post and basically just shows me that he's trying to find his way in such a complex game.

Also has good reasoning with how Dr Ug's investigation with regards to using Luna/Xela as a baseline. Good reasoning, but really nothing to the post itself.

Then he voices some uneasiness with ConMan's unknown role being very risky for the town if ConMan is scum. This post is a little weird to me, because it's true the other way too. I think up to this point he's looking level headed and neutral if not townie. This post makes me think otherwise though because he's suddenly being not that consistent with evaluation.

I agree with Sungura here. Even if Suzaku agrees to the plan and is town, and everyone agrees to temporarily vote for him, using his kill as a second lynch is still far from foolproof. In addition to players Suzaku may not want to kill (lovers, masons, etc.), if scum has access to a doctor or roleblocker, they'd be able interfere with Suzaku's kill to get him lynched the next day (and potentially save one of their members as well). Going along with this strategy blindly gives scum more power to control and confuse town.


Follows along with Sungura's thoughts on using Suzaka as a 2nd lynch. This is a pretty safe, townie explanation. Not sure if it's adding all that much independent thought, but with this many players it's hard to be the first to come out with an opinion on a fairly hot button issue.

Points out Vytron's voting mistake. Just a factual post here as far as I can see.

faubiguy wrote:
Sabrar wrote:I think it's fair to say that there are both werevolves and townies among them.

I notice that you didn't mention the aliens here. It's possible you just didn't think about it, but it's also possible it's because you're an alien and knew that none of your partners had done so.


Now here's an interesting post. I think this is were his mostly stellar past of thoughtful and reasonable posts just falls away. This is a very passive aggressive post and I can see him trying to spike up some rage an indignation that may lead to a bandwagon on Sabrar. Looks like he's trying to plant the doubt and have someone else take over the role of doing the dirty work to convince everyone to lynch Sabrar. This is screaming alien to me.

I also have the hindsight of having investigated Sabrar and knowing that he's not an alien because he can't chat. So that's making the post stick out to me even more so.

Then, no posts for the rest of the day and no vote for anyone.

He comes back on day two with this:

faubiguy wrote:
patzer wrote:Am somewhat suspicious of Van - we obviously need a doctor to protect Lawrencelot tonight, so it seems quite odd that she'd choose to create a Nurse rather than a Doctor.

I think this was pretty well explained in his post D1 ­– making doctors too incautiously leads to a fairly high chance of making anti-town doctors, and nurse-ifying a player works as a roleblock until a doctor dies (in this case nurse-ifying Znirk since their power is much more helpful to scum than town). Also, unless I'm mistaken Lawrencelot wasn't confirmed town until weiyaoli's flip D2, so it seems odd to expect Van to have taken that into account unless you're anti-town who already knew that Lawrencelot wasn't in your faction then.


Again, I'm seeing a pattern that I saw in the last post. Drumming up a fairly weak and confusing argument but not really committing to it. This time it's against a fairly easy target. And we already know that the aliens want patzer dead too, so I see this as faubiguy trying to look townie and push a steamroll over. This comment also came before the three votes on patzer, so again makes me think that he's pushing things along without having to be the leader.



Dr Ug

Spoiler:
Could be really helpful with their power, but at this point I fully expect a modkill. Will revisit if an when they start actually posting.


RoadieRich

Spoiler:
Need more content from this fellow. I am in favor of roleblocking him if he remains inactive. Doesn't make sense to have a kill in the game with someone who we have pretty much no info on.


I was going to do more people, but I'm really convinced about faubiguy being an alien at this point.

Vote: faubiguy

If he gets lynched I'll consider that a worthwhile trade off of my ability.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Nov 24, 2015 7:20 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote:@SirGabriel: how do you feel about ConMan now, any change since last time?

If anything, I'm now more confident that he's scum.

Vote ConMan

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Tue Nov 24, 2015 7:40 pm UTC

I want to hear from our drug-taking dog. If Dr Ug doesn't turn up, we really need someone to take over his role. I believe Madge will be available in six days' time, so if nothing else happens we can just wait until then.

Very interesting analysis by crucialityfactor; somehow he has managed to work out that faubiguy is an alien and I'm a jester?

However, I disagree. He believes that faubiguy is an alien due to him starting off with reasonable, calculating, posts, before suddenly going passive-aggressive and silent. Now, if I were an alien, this is the last strategy I would think of taking. Surely the aliens' best strategy is just to remain relatively normal posting patterns in the hope of blending in with the crowd?
I really don't see why crucialityfactor would consider faubiguy the most suspicious player.

Hmm. a thought.
A rather interesting solution to the "Who-did-the-aliens-mind-control-problem" is that crucialityfactor is an alien; the aliens agreed to not mind-control anybody; and they agreed that crucialityfactor would fakeclaim being mind-controlled. Why would the aliens do this? Putting a mind control down is relatively useless, because the target can vote just as you want them to in the day, and thus keep their abilities in the night. You'd need a *lot* of mind-controlled players to make a meaningful difference to the game. So it may be that they just decided to not mind-control at all as a bluff.
This is obviously highly speculative, but it's something that should be considered.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby moody7277 » Tue Nov 24, 2015 8:13 pm UTC

a. Consensus seems to be that DJ is a jester. My read had been non-town but not necessarily any particular type of scum, so that might fit. In any evemt since it looks like DJ is going to be ignored from now on...

Unvote

b. Because I haven't seen anything from freezeblade to downgrade my opinion of SDK...

Vote: freezeblade

c. Re Sabrar:

Spoiler:
Post 1: Preliminaries, and "please let me live". Second party seems a bit overeager, but part of the fun of being in a crazy game is craziness, so this looks neutral.

Post 2: Some setup spec, nothing too in depth. Question about RR and Suzaku that would soon be moot. This quote:

Aliens: let's hunt them! :twisted:

is what I jokingly said was a werewolf tell. Overall, this post looks slightly townie.

Post 3: Response to Vytron that he's being too broad in thinking that doing the vote/unvote thing indicates town. Looks like properly paranoid town, but could also be scum justifying not doing this.

Post 4: Suspicion over Lawr's negating RR's kill and related mod question.

Post 5&6: Question re Lawr's in-thread spoiler

Post 7: Post giving a gambit where Druids claim in order to get non-scum power roles in exchange for possibly killing them later. This looks town, but could also be scum thinning the possibilites; killing Druids means not killing town, so better they're out in the open.

Post 8: Fosed Lawr off his response to prodding about voting RR.

Post 9: Advises cf against metagaming

Post 10: More discussion of Lawr's vote.

Post 11: Against analysing the Suzaku issue for scum. Points more to Vytron than SDK more originating the vote/unvote issue; a small hypocrisy that he admits to.

Post 12: Quibble over one point faubiguy thinks is an alien tell.

Post 13: Another post about Lawr that continues his suspicion.

Post 14: Picks up an error by Sungura

Post 15: Gives out that he's not a native English speaker, and says that might make his phrasing look scummy. Not going to fault someone for phrasing, just content.

Post 16&17: More posts about Lawr re his considering probability that he was removing a possible scum aligned kill and what third alignment he could be.

About here is where I did my first read of Sabrar, and posts 4,5,6,8,10,13,16,& 17 are what made me think that he was tunnelling on Lawrencelot, which I figured was to look good with minimal effort "See, I'm scum hunting by poking Lawr so much." This is where I got my initial non-town read from.

Post 18: Post count, which is most times fluff.

Post 19: Reads post on subset of players with 2+ votes. Lawr most suspicious, SDK and Opus also a little suspicious. Votes Lawr

Post 20: Unvotes. Questions weiyaoli about reaction to Lawr votes.

Post 21: Upset at YOLOSWAG's reaction to post 20.

Post 22: Second post count. Agrees with Sungura's call for more content. Confused with people's scummy read on patzer.

Post 23: Votes fb. Given that he is second on Sabrar's list of suspicion, this makes sense.

Post 24: Response over tie situation in case Opus bailed out. I'm not sure how I feel about this situation on a scum v town level.

D2
Post 25: Impressions from D2 flips, vote order on Opus, did'nt like my DJ vote.

Post 26: Doubts about more people than cf claiming about mind control.

Post 27: Can't read Vytron, doubts my statement that frogman has cleared Suzaku.

Post 28: Response to me pointing out possible mutliple alien mind probes.

Post 29: Analysis of night actions; YOLOSWAG's kill means he's non-werewolf, jimbob's list likely includes lone wolf or alien instead of werewolves.

Post 30: Reread of Vytron, pointing out his vote was bussy. Not really informative since he's dead.

Post 31: fluff

Post 32: Response re possible alien strategy

Post 33: Read of jimbob, with a very odd mod question. Ends up with a FoS on jimbob.

Post 34: Non-poster list for D2

Post 35: Post to cf regarding mpolo's claim

Post 36: Couple of posting concerns, and taking issues with my probability analysis of the Suzaku/frogman issue. Basically it's the idea of using posting data to modify the a priori numbers.

Post 37: Takes issue with my read on him as lynchable.


Summarizing, up until Lawrencelot's mason claim, and for a short while after he was tunnelling quite a bit. Since then, he's been doing some surface level stuff, a lot of what I'd call fluff (posts 31,34,35, and 30 kind of). I still say he's leaning non-town, but we have bigger fish to fry.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Tue Nov 24, 2015 8:54 pm UTC

Finally lots of new content to analyze. Which I'll do tomorrow, for now I'll react to moody7277.

First, thanks for taking the time to explain. I cannot argue with your feelings, just want to point out a few things regarding the 'fluff' you find suspicious.
Post30: I believe analyzing Vytron is very useful given the hindsight, as he probably wanted to protect his buddies from suspicion and start trains on non-werewolves. So we could get a lot of information if we look through his posts.
Post31: This was an apology to Van, I made it because it would have bothered me in a reverse situation. I cannot see how you could judge me on this.
Post33: The situation in the 'odd' question was first suggested by jimbobmacdoodle (here). As PGO is the most likely ability that the mod wants to keep hidden I found it a worthwhile avenue to investigate, as the wording of dimochka's ability was not conclusive for me in this regard.
Post34: reply to SirGabriel's 4th question from the previous post.
Post35: reply to cruciality's question to the mod.

Usually if I see a question that can be answered by reading the thread I like to answer it as waiting for others to do so gives us less time to work with the information. This means that I will have a higher post-count than most of you and obviously not everything will be filled with insightful analysis. I believe however that I've done my fair share of that as well and will continue to do so in the future.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby mpolo » Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:07 pm UTC

I baked pies for Thanksgiving today, which means that I didn't have much time to do anything but read the thread.

I would really like to get rid of the aliens before we start getting down to the wire. The fact that Sungura thinks she's found one, and was right about practically everything that is verifiable from yesterday almost has me wanting to just follow. However, I should have time to do a reread at least on SDK/freezeblade before changing my vote.

I will also try to look at faubiguy, as CF is not shabby at this game by any means, either.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sungura » Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:21 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:I will also try to look at faubiguy, as CF is not shabby at this game by any means, either.
Unless I forget something from yesterday, I pointed out fabiguy too :P CF did a more fleshed out analysis on faubiguy after mine.

All: I know players aren't all from the US, but here it is a holiday weekend (the whole "hey let's celebrate being saved by indians who we then systematically killed / stole all their resources" holiday) so I will be quiet for the next five days, likely. I should be able to answer questions and keep up, just don't expect any large posts. I'd probably assume the same for all other US residents. Non-US residents, I expect to see you all active. Like RR who is still AWOL.

Mod prod on RR please? they posted a very short "will be back later" at the start of the day, and have not done anything of content either day.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Misnomer » Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:24 pm UTC

Frogman has informed me that he unfortunately cannot continue playing. A replacement is being sought, but if none can be found then the modkill will take place at day end.

Ninja: it has not been sufficiently long since RR's last post to warrant a formal mod prod, and it is not the role of the mod to ensure that a player's posts are substantial. Nonetheless, I'll send an informal chase-up message to see if I can prompt him into action.
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby freezeblade » Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:25 pm UTC

Unofficial Votals:
patzer: 3 (jimbobmacdoodle, Djehutynakht, Suzaku)
ConMan: 2 (mpolo, SirGabriel)
Freezeblade: 3 (Sungura, Lawrencelot, moody7277)
faubiguy: 1 (crucialityfactor)

Not voting (16): Dr Ug, YOLOSWAG, Faubiguy, Frogman, Snark, ConMan, Diemo, znirk, Van, patzer, roadierich, Sabrar, Lawrencelot

voted for Suzaku on D2:
frogman, moody7277, Lawrencelot, patzer, faubiguy, ConMan

Thoughts as I'm tallying:
patzer wrote:Two werewolves dead. Yay!
this pings me quite a bit.

moody self-congratulating is a little ping-y too, in the DJ v. moody moment, I'm more on DJ's side here, D1 I have a tendency to stay quiet too.

Lots of discussion on the mind control aspect. I suspect that some of the more inactive members are Aliens, and they missed the deadline for turning in targets, or are targets themselves.

Patzer's 'yay' exclamation just pinged me really bad, looks like they're trying too hard to look townie, that along with a tie vote being no good is going to cause me to:

vote: Patzer
Belial wrote:I am not even in the same country code as "the mood for this shit."

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:21 pm UTC

dear mister Freeze Blade

while your noting of my use of the expression "yay" is admirable

and it is exactly the sort of thing we should be looking for if we want to work out our reads on people by their style of speech

(which may or may not be the case)

I regret to inform you that, in this case, your suspicions are sadly misplaced

for it happens to be the case that I am neither wolf nor alien

as convincing as the evidence to the contrary may be

indeed, though I may be a Lycanthrope

I can assure you that I am in fact quite harmless.

thank you.

:3
If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands. –Douglas Adams

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby freezeblade » Wed Nov 25, 2015 12:19 am UTC

I just remembered that I am voteless. so we're still tied.
Belial wrote:I am not even in the same country code as "the mood for this shit."

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Wed Nov 25, 2015 12:39 am UTC

ah yes. The vote restriction. I wonder why Iggy put it on you.
If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands. –Douglas Adams

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby ConMan » Wed Nov 25, 2015 6:06 am UTC

I have finally read through everything again, and this time I took notes and had the role list open in another tab just to make sure that what I said has a chance of being accurate. I'll say some of the things I've noted - some of them are obvious, some are probably repeats of what others have said, and some are probably still me being stupid.

One thing is that I really do think patzer's posts are low on content compared to others. I have no problem with the "go team!" kind of post after taking out two wolves - I've done it myself, I think it's a perfectly good response to taking out two scum D1. But there are definitely a lot of "I don't know nothin' about nothin'" posts - more than even me, at least from where I'm sitting. Do I think that it's a red light, or just an orange one, in terms of the risk? I think that combined with the first note I made to myself - that patzer was less concerned about the threat of the aliens - and I think it's a red for me.

Vote patzer

Also, I am not under mind control. I see a few possibilities as to the lack of people claiming mind control:

[li][*]Since they would be able to influence at most 4 votes/abilities, at this stage they're grossly out-numbered and so there's not a lot of point in using their ability at the moment.
[*]Some of their number never submitted a mind control action (which would suggest that there are likely aliens amongst those who are due for modprods).
[*]Like a few people have admitted in thread, perhaps the aliens thought they had a single factional action, like the werewolves.
[*]There were other targets, but they're dead or haven't posted or haven't admitted to being controlled - the last of which I definitely agree is a scummy move.[/li]

I'm leaning towards the second or fourth being the most likely explanations.

Also, I think I am leaning back slightly more towards understanding Van's point of view on choosing to nursify Znirk. I'm still not 100% convinced, but eh whatever.

And, scum or not, I suspect that somewhere in the vicinity of 80-100% of investigation results claimed in-thread will be true, both because of the ease of catching people out and because all scum have reasons to find and catch the other scum at this point in the game. So I do believe there were two scum on the lynch yesterday, although other than patzer I have slight suspicions on mpolo and Van more than the others.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Misnomer » Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:09 pm UTC

Echo244 is replacing Frogman, effective immediately.
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]


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