Smalltown Werewolf PYP - F is for Finished!

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Misnomer
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Misnomer » Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:22 pm UTC

Votals:

patzer (4): jimbobmacdoodle, Djehutynakht, Suzaku, ConMan
ConMan (2): mpolo, SirGabriel
Freezeblade (3): Sungura, moody7277, Lawrencelot
Faubiguy (1): cruicalityfactor

Not voting (11): Dr Ug, YOLOSWAG, Faubiguy, Echo244, Snark, Diemo, znirk, Van, patzer, roadierich, Sabrar

Game Status:
Freezeblade is currently voteless.
Znirk is currently a Nurse.
3 Tenure Committee members remain alive.
11 votes are required to majority lynch.


No deadline has been set... for now.
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Sabrar
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:51 pm UTC

Okay. This post was rewritten multiple times as all roles, results and votes are interconnected and every analysis kept providing new insight into previous readings. I've tried to put it into the most logical order and included a tl/dr summary at the end, however reading the whole shebang is advised to get a clear picture. Also I apologize if I get a bit long-winded sometimes, I just want to explore all the possibilities.

One thing to mention at the beginning:
Spoiler:
Like moody7277 I'm also in favor of analyzing only the relevant content of the posts and not the wording or the fluff it's surrounded with. While I understand that many here think that these can also be good indicators, I know just from looking at some of the posts here that players don't always make the effort to read through what they wrote and correct grammatical or other mistakes. Also people can easily have their own idiosyncrasies which would skew such readings.
Oh, and before anyone accuses me of being a hypocrite (as I've already analyzed fluff from jimbobmacdoodle's post earlier), it was done while possessing significant hindsight that could lead us to meaningful tells. I'm only against analyzing fluff in itself.


And another observation regarding the number of scum among voters on Opus_723:
Spoiler:
I've analyzed this earlier and my opinion didn't change. I find it very unlikely that we would have actual Werewolves among the 6. If there are any scum then I'm 99.99% positive that they would be Alien or Lone Wolf and of course statistically Aliens are more likely.


Now onto people (if I've underlined your name it means I have a question or request inside addressed to you):

crucialityfactor
Spoiler:
I got a townie vibe from him on D1, he doubted Lawrencelot's scumminess from the beginning and was overall consistent in his opinions. The main thing to analyze is his D2 claims. He posted within an hour of the beginning of the day, this indicates truthfulness as he had very little time to falsify his reports and think through all the consequences without knowing any of the other investigative results. Theoretically he could have lied and investigated someone other than me and then posted a fake result knowing that I wouldn't contradict him (at that point having chat-abilities would have meant me being scum or Druid), however I cannot see any point in doing so. Not lying about the result is logical for scum as well, as once I flip he would be immediately revealed so there's not a lot of point in doing that. So far mostly good but not conclusive.
Furthermore he claims being mind-controlled and states he was ordered to vote patzer. Possibilities include:
- he was telling the truth. Conclusion: crucialityfactor and patzer cannot be Alien.
- he is an Alien: at first it looks like this could be a gambit to try to lynch patzer (she was one his main targets on D1 as well), however in his latest post he declares that he won't vote for her if that results in a lynch. Not using his abilities is less detrimental if he's Alien, so in itself this could be a double-buff to save patzer. Looking at D1 however renders this extremely unlikely, as Opus_723 could have dived easily leaving patzer to be lynched, partly because of crucialityfactor's vote. So I'm dismissing this scenario completely.
- he is telling the truth about being mind-controlled but the intended target is not patzer. This would only make sense if he wanted to lynch patzer no matter what, but from the above we see that this is not the case. Again, not likely.
- he is completely fake-claiming the mind-control for reasons of his own. Once again, taking into account his latest post this only makes sense if he wants to save patzer, but that is completely inconsistent with D1 votes.
Summary: without his last post multiple interpretations would have been possible, however right now he looks to be entirely truthful and townie to me. This also means that patzer cannot be an Alien.
So now I can look at his other readings:
- on freezeblade/Dr Ug/RoadieRich: nothing substantial, wants more content. This is perfectly reasonable, if a bit too cautious in case of freezeblade.
- on faubiguy: he starts to suspect him because of an attack on me as my wording supposedly looked suspicious to faubiguy. As explained before I don't believe that this is a good indication, however I know it's important for others and cannot fault faubiguy on that alone.
He then follows up with pointing out the similarities in faubiguy's attempt to start a train and although this looks more convincing I don't quite see where his certainty comes from when he declares faubiguy to be an Alien (of course it could be a gut feeling that I cannot argue against). Unfortunately he stops analyzing others because of this, which I think is a bad/lazy move.
@crucialityfactor: please try to take the time and analyze others as well. It can only help.


jimbobmacdoodle
Spoiler:
I reread his D1 activities earlier, not going to repeat that, just mention that I FoS-d him based on my reading. D2 he starts out with some basic but reasonable posts. Then he analyzes freezeblade and concludes with a distancing, wishy-washy statement. Votes patzer mainly based on wording issues (which I don't like but can understand) but meanwhile suggests Jester. Replies only to a very small part of my FoS on him, doesn't touch content issues. Corrects his math then states that 5-6 scums out of 16 is higher chance than 2 out of 6. What?
Could you please clarify what you were trying to say in this post?
Finally states that he won't have time for big posts or doing further math. States that 2 is the most likely number and immediately gives reason why it might not be. Reiterates that he doesn't want to go scum-hunting among Opus_723 voters - but still votes patzer - which is the most damning thing for me. It looks like he wants to lynch patzer then shift elsewhere so the wrongness of his claim cannot be detected. Especially with the scums most likely being Aliens (which patzer is not), not wanting to hunt them is definitely scummy.
Summary: he just jumped at the front of my scum-list.


freezeblade
Spoiler:
Follows no content on D1 with no real content on D2 so far. Tries to vote patzer in self-defense and for fluff-reasons. My previous opinion of him hasn't changed, very high chance of being scum.


Sungura
Spoiler:
Definitely not Werewolf. Might still be Lone Wolf or Alien, especially since in this post she advises not go all-out on alien-hunting (but with good reasons). Very consistent in her readings. Suggests investigative roles to target the same player to get confirmed results, which looks a bit suspicious to me as it could also mean wasting those powers. Doesn't force it though. Rants about people not participating which seems very townie to me.
Looking at her big post the things I agree with:
- analysis on kill-distribution
- voting/unvoting Suzaku cannot be used to determine townieness.
- jimbobmacdoodle's claim of having 2 scum among the 6 voters is suspicious
- Djehutynakht is probably Jester
Things I find odd or that aren't properly explained for my liking:
- suggests multiple time some kind of link between Djehutynakht and SDK, however if the former is a Jester then no such link can exist.
- jumps quickly to the conclusion that scum controls the investigations just because Vytron contradicted her. To me this is just too big of an assumption and therefore the FoS on faubiguy is not substantiated for me.
As my two scummiest looking candidates are freezeblade and jimbobmacdoodle and her town-list looks very much like mine therefore I currently think she's Town. She could be an excellent Alien player but hopefully this can be disproved by lynching freezeblade.
Aside: I know that it's just a personal peeve of mine but I would really appreciate if you could spell my name correctly. I know it's not targeted against me as you shorten/misspell others as well but it just bugs me the wrong way. Thank you.


ConMan
Spoiler:
Nothing jumps out for me on D1 at all. Some small analysis that could come from townie, but it's just not enough. D2 he spends a large amount of time putting suspicion on Van and then apologizes for misreading her role. It might be genuine, as the misread was almost surely to be revealed. Then we come to his last post which is supposed to contain content based on the preliminary but actually falls short. He tries to justify his earlier opinion on Van and votes patzer because of lack of reads that he's also guilty of. Seems to me like jumping on a train to avoid a lynch.
Summary: I would have said neutral before (although lack of content was already suspicious a bit), now it's more like scum-leaning neutral.


patzer
Spoiler:
She has a very peculiar style that I don't understand. This post screams breadcrumb to me but I have no idea how to decipher it and this frustrates me. The celebratory part I cannot hold against her, as I was also considering posting something along this line until I remembered that I read in a previous game that for some people it looks very suspicious. I consider it simply fluff and nothing else. I still don't agree with her reasoning about targeting Znirk due to lack of Doctors, however it might stem from the same kind of misreading that a lot of other people did (me included). For reasons explained before I don't think she's Alien or Werewolf. Lone Wolf might be possible but in that case I think she would have tried to hide much better.
Summary: she's probably some kind of 3rd party.


frogman
Spoiler:
Very little content, however he asked for replacement so it might be legitimate. One thing jumped out for me:
- first to suggest using Luna or Xela as baseline for Darryl. This is either townie or he is in the same scum-team as Dr Ug and so can easily hide themselves. It was argued before me that lack of mind-controls are partially due to people not paying attention to the thread - of which Dr Ug is definitely guilty - so there exists a distinct possibility of them being Alien, however this is far-reaching as of now.
Summary: no immediate read, will probably learn more after Echo244 has a chance to catch up and Dr Ug is either modkilled or joins the party again.


Suzaku
Spoiler:
Lots of apologizing for no content, does some analysis in the end but it's still very little compared to the size of the game (his 2-line reasoning for his vote is just fluff and also based on faulty assumption as pointed out later by patzer). Specifically promises fragmented analysis for the future.
Summary: Definitely looking scummy. Obviously if frogman/Echo244 should be confirmed town then we can throw all of this out. Even if frogman is revealed to be scum he might have reported the truth to not give himself away but the speed with which he wanted to clear Suzaku suggests to me otherwise.


#HBC | YOLOSWAG:
Spoiler:
Looked fairly townie and consistent in his opinions, killing Vytron was definitely advertised so I don't doubt that he really did it. D2 he accepts jimbobmacdoodle's claim without any reservation and wants us to lynch patzer but does not provide additional justification. Also finds Znirk suspicious mainly because of gut feeling. I think he went into scum-hunting without checking the truthfulness of that claim and was subsequently biased in his judgement.
Summary: Definitely not Werewolf, I'm leaning towards Town currently but I might not recognize an Alien.


Some other people:
Spoiler:
As explained before, Znirk and mpolo look townie to me based on their early vote on Opus_723. I get townie vibes from Van and moody7277 as well and really hope that Djehutynakht turns out to be a Jester so I can self-congratulate myself on that read. :) Didn't reread faubiguy or SirGabriel yet, might do so later. Diemo and RoadieRich need to post.


Summary: right now I want to vote for either jimbobmacdoodle or freezeblade. People who I consider townie are voting for freezeblade, while there is another train forming on patzer that contains both of my most wanted scums, 2 other scummy-looking players and a probable Jester (I think freezeblade really wanted to vote for her and only realized his mistake later). As the second train probably contains Wolves and Aliens alike, it seems even more clear to me that patzer is neither and we want to avoid mislynching her. jimbobmacdoodle didn't receive any votes yet, so I will

Vote: freezeblade

And now I'm spent.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Echo244 » Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:04 pm UTC

Hi all - just a quick post to say I'm here, I've been somewhat-following the thread, I'll be doing a proper readthrough of D2 at least and posting this evening. I'll do my best to pick up on anything addressed to frogman.

Recommendations for investigation targets are welcome.
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Has committed an act of treason.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:30 pm UTC

Honestly, I can't really remember what prompted that statement. Looking at the numbers again, technically 6/16 is slightly higher than 2/6 (although not by much), so there is a slightly higher chance of non-Opus voters being scum than Opus voters, if that figure is correct (assumes 3 higher than the minimum number of scum, if I recall the ranges correctly this time). However, it is not significant. I might have done my internal calculations including the 2 who were on Opus.

Sabrar wrote:Reiterates that he doesn't want to go scum-hunting among Opus_723 voters

I think you are misinterpreting this statement:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I am not advocating that we specifically go after the 2 scum amongst the Opus voters

I was saying this in response to Sungura and Van's discussion about the number of scum voters. Sungura was suggesting that I picked two so that we would focus on finding those two and neglect the others. I was making it clear that I am not saying we should vote from one group or the other. I am currently voting patzer because they are the person I read as scummiest on D1 and because I didn't like some of their early posts. I don't think I am contradicting myself by doing so. FYI, I am planning at looking at her again soon and reviewing my vote, as a) she has claimed to be able to prove her innocence and I want to explore how (I have suspicions about what she could be if she isn't scum, but need to reread some things in that light), and b) I don't like how quickly others jumped on the wagon with me. It seems to me that scum might be trying to push an easy-looking lynch.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Lawrencelot » Wed Nov 25, 2015 4:17 pm UTC

crucialityfactor wrote:So basically all we have to go on right now is the weird and clumsy play of SDK and a few nothing posts from freezeblade. Would really love more content and I was really surprised how little there was from both players. Freezeblade was introduced about a week ago. So it really shouldn't be about needing to catch up on the thread. I'm worried about them going inactive at this point more than anything else really. Definitely just need some content at this point.

@crucialityfactor: Freezeblade has posted since you made that post, does this change your read on him?

SirGabriel wrote:
Lawrencelot wrote:@SirGabriel: how do you feel about ConMan now, any change since last time?

If anything, I'm now more confident that he's scum.

Vote ConMan

Why? And what do you think of Freezeblade?

About patzer: what people like Sabrar and others forget is that the aliens could have let people vote for patzer to make it look like he's not an alien, while he is. It's not at all unlikely to use wine with the mind control.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Nov 25, 2015 4:50 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:
Lawrencelot wrote:@SirGabriel: how do you feel about ConMan now, any change since last time?

If anything, I'm now more confident that he's scum.

Vote ConMan

Why? And what do you think of Freezeblade?

As mpolo said, ConMan's post seemed overly defensive.
I'll look into freezeblade now and post my analysis soon.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Nov 25, 2015 5:10 pm UTC

I didn't see anything out of the ordinary about SDK's day 1 play.

freezeblade wrote:I'm really not sure how my power is very useful, and am open to suggestions from the community about possible targets. If there's no thoughts, I'm considering withholding.

It might become more useful approaching day 6. If we can narrow down the list of potential aliens and/or create a list of people generally believed to be scum, then we can lynch them two at a time. If freezeblade doesn't weld who the town asks him to weld, we can lynch freezeblade. The disadvantage is we would have to decide who to weld the day before we want to lynch them, but it's probably still a good strategy if the aliens are still around a couple days from now, possibly even sooner.

freezeblade voted patzer for celebrating the death of two werewolves. I disagree with freezeblade's reasoning, but I don't think it's necessarily scummy.

Pretty much no other content from freezeblade. He talked about his role, said what he thought of SDK's play, claimed not to have been targeted, then voted patzer based on a single post (never even mentioned her other posts) in order to break a tie, except that he couldn't break the tie because he was voteless. No analysis whatsoever of any other player.

FoS freezeblade

freezeblade, can you please give us some analysis, particularly of all the other players that currently have votes on them (patzer, ConMan, and faubiguy)?

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Wed Nov 25, 2015 5:33 pm UTC

Very impressive wall of text by Sabrar.

Sabrar wrote:patzer
She has a very peculiar style that I don't understand.[/spoiler]


I'll take ðat as a compliment.
Þank you.

On to game matters. Ðe main suspects at ðe moment are ConMan, freezeblade, and yours truly.

(as an aside, I find it interesting ðat Misnomer misspelt crucialityfactor's name in ðe last votals.)

So. Let's go alien hunting. ConMan or freezeblade. Or maybe some oðer player ðat nobody's suspected yet.

Freezeblade is not very active. He didn't target anyone last night. I find ðis curious. Could well be an alien trying to be unobtrusive. Even wiþ ðe limited knowledge we had last night, wouldn't it be a good idea to weld ðe two most suspicious people togeðer? I don't þink it would be overall harmful for town. Maybe he didn't target anyone due to a fear of being tracked. Or, I suppose the aliens would want to keep as many people alive for as long as possible, which would create an incentive not to weld.
I don't have a strong opinion on freezeblade. But leaning toward a scum read. would be okay with lynching him. Certainly preferable to lynching me, at least. Consider me to have put an FoS on freezeblade.

OTOH, Ug and RR are so inactive that it's bad for ðem regardless of ðeir alignment, so we can't really infer anyþing from ðeir activity levels. Hope ðey get replaced soon.

ConMan: I don't see ðe case on him. Difficult to know for sure when his real role is hidden. Neutral read.

More players exist of course. Some of them must be alien. I should have a look at Jimmy and Sungura sometime; ðey were somewhat suspicious at times.
If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands. –Douglas Adams

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Wed Nov 25, 2015 5:36 pm UTC

EBWOP: Apologies, I appear to have turned partially Icelandic for a second there. The "þ" and "ð" should be read as "th".

Apologies for any inconvenience this may have caused. Rest assured that I have purged those accursed Icelandic letters back into the middle of the ocean where they belong, and they won't appear again.
If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands. –Douglas Adams

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Nov 25, 2015 5:41 pm UTC

patzer wrote:EBWOP: Apologies, I appear to have turned partially Icelandic for a second there. The "þ" and "ð" should be read as "th".

Apologies for any inconvenience this may have caused. Rest assured that I have purged those accursed Icelandic letters back into the middle of the ocean where they belong, and they won't appear again.

I just assumed that was a joke related to Sabrar's comment on your peculiar style.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Nov 25, 2015 6:15 pm UTC

patzer wrote:Maybe he didn't target anyone due to a fear of being tracked
Why would a character whose target is publicly known be scared of being tracked? At least, I assume it is publicly known.
Is Wolfgang's target publicly known?
I think it is from the role description, but worth double checking. I think it most likely that freezeblade is simply telling the truth, although I could definitely see the idea that he withheld his action to keep more players alive as alien.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Wed Nov 25, 2015 6:57 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
patzer wrote:EBWOP: Apologies, I appear to have turned partially Icelandic for a second there. The "þ" and "ð" should be read as "th".

Apologies for any inconvenience this may have caused. Rest assured that I have purged those accursed Icelandic letters back into the middle of the ocean where they belong, and they won't appear again.

I just assumed that was a joke related to Sabrar's comment on your peculiar style.


Indeed it was.

The post you quoted was also made in jest.
If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands. –Douglas Adams

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Wed Nov 25, 2015 6:59 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
patzer wrote:Maybe he didn't target anyone due to a fear of being tracked
Why would a character whose target is publicly known be scared of being tracked? At least, I assume it is publicly known.
Is Wolfgang's target publicly known?
I think it is from the role description, but worth double checking. I think it most likely that freezeblade is simply telling the truth, although I could definitely see the idea that he withheld his action to keep more players alive as alien.


Ah, I think you're right. Wolfgang's role description states that "the two players will be announced as welded together".

I had assumed that we wouldn't be told about this welding, but it seems my assumption was incorrect.
If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands. –Douglas Adams

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby crucialityfactor » Wed Nov 25, 2015 7:04 pm UTC

@Sabrar, yes my intentions were to look at everyone post by post, but even in just doing what I did I went about a half hour over on my lunch break. I do want to go back a look at everyone in the same way, but I probably won't have the time to do so. Once I saw those pings in faubiguy I thought that I had at least reached some sort of a conclusion on most of the major lynch candidates for the day and wanted to at least get that information posted.

I will certainly try to go back a look at a few more players including a re-read of freezeblade as requested by lawrence. But as I said before I am hosting Thanksgiving tomorrow for the first time, so that is going to be my priority over the next few days. Should be fine though as we don't have a deadline in place yet.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Misnomer » Wed Nov 25, 2015 7:08 pm UTC

The results of a successful welding will be made public.
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Wed Nov 25, 2015 9:57 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote:About patzer: what people like Sabrar and others forget is that the aliens could have let people vote for patzer to make it look like he's not an alien, while he is. It's not at all unlikely to use wine with the mind control.

I didn't consider this because it would be an incredibly risky gambit to run. patzer had the 2nd most votes on D1 and crucialityfactor voted for her as well so it was very likely that he would do so again along with the others. In my opinion it would not have been worth the risk.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Lawrencelot » Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:18 pm UTC

Oh yeah patzer is a she. In my language the word is similar to the word for a macho guy so it's even harder to keep this in mind.

Well there are two reasons for the aliens to do this: 1) it makes people think patzer is not an alien so they don't vote for her, only the mind-controlled votes for her, or 2) they sacrifice patzer because people were already thinking she's scummy, and now they do not need to reveal who is not an alien (since the mind-controlled vote restriction is likely to not be an alien).

Option 2) would be similar to not doing the mind-control at all, but with the possible gain of option 1).

Anyway, I don't really think patzer is an alien, SDK or Conman would be more likely, so this was just to cover all the options.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:27 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote:Oh yeah patzer is a she. In my language the word is similar to the word for a macho guy so it's even harder to keep this in mind.

Dutch?
Interesting, didn't know there were many false friends between Dutch and English.

I don't tend to make a point of correcting people on pronouns because it could get annoying, but thanks Sabrar for pointing it out :)

Anyway, I don't really think patzer is an alien, SDK or Conman would be more likely, so this was just to cover all the options.


I agree with you, in that I don't think that I'm an alien. And that Freezeblade (SDK) could well be an alien.

honestly it seems rather farcical that we're trying to get through the day without input from the arguably most important player, Darryl.
If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands. –Douglas Adams

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Echo244 » Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:14 am UTC

OK, quick readthrough, this is a big catchup attempt and detailed analysis of the scummiest will have to come another time:

1. Suzaku as Suzaku the Samurai

Town, having been investigated by frogman/me. frogman already vote/unvoted Suzaku, I'd probably do the same despite Sungura's arguments that it's a distraction; pushing the vote/unvote thing for additional town-cred is unhelpful, but nyuh, making it more acceptable to stay off his list and avoid being killed by him narrows the potential kills an investigation-confirmed (for whatever value you place in that) town player can make.

Good analysis generally although he admits to not trusting his own reads too much.

2. Lawrencelot as Victor the Vegetarian Butcher

Town, confirmed by weiyaoli and surprisingly not dead. Didn't like the block of RoadieRich D1, though plenty of kills went through anyway. Strong opinions on several players, but being confirmed town doesn't particularly add weight to them.

Solid point on the mind-control being potentially used for reverse-psychology, particularly this early, but... I'm not sure about patzer being an alien. More under "patzer".

3. SirGabriel as Father Patrick the Franciscan Priest

Power is a bit worrying. Hope he's not scum. Sensible contributions, I like his comments on freezeblade,, though I want to make my own read of him. Towny.

4. SDK/Freezeblade as Wolfgang the Welder

I'm amused by this power. And kind of wish I could use it IRL, for giggles. Or possibly dates.

Votes patzer to break the tie, before remembering that he has no vote.

Who would you consider welding together today, freezeblade?

Not a lot of content, SDK was scummy and freezeblade's been trying to move away from that... I'm going to have to read closer on this, he seems to be a few people's favourite for a lynch, I'd have to closely re-read to be sure myself.

5. Diemo as Xela the Xenomorph

Love the flavour on this. Useful additional kill power on D3... if Diemo is town. Hell, if we don't start killing aliens soon, we may need this power.

Don't think he's posted since D1, I'd like to hear reactions to the night's actions.

6. YOLOSWAG as Marco the Meticulous US Marine

Good kill on Vytron. Towny as town can be in killing werewolves. Nobody's looking at him much as a result. I'm wondering if that's a mistake. Few posts, very short on content. Picks up on Znirk and patzer in a well-I'll-go-along-with-the-obvious-target-but-i'd-rather-you-lynched-somebody-else way that smells of dithering-whether-to-bus-a-scumbuddy-or-not.

I'll re-read, closely.

7. mpolo as Quenton the Quality Assurance Lab Worker

No actions apparently failed, which is interesting, though I'm wondering how far we can trust this. Agrees with the anti-alien focus, will reread freezeblade. Neutral.

8. moody7277 as Albert the Archaeologist

Interesting power. Very interesting for hunting night kills.

Sensible analysis, drilling down into the list of Opus voters a little, but list of lynchables extends beyond this. Neutral-leaning-town.

9. crucialityfactor as Calvin the Crotchety Old Man

Not a very useful power, but it does give us some information.

Good analysis of a few high-profile players. Neutral-leaning-town.

10. ConMan as Perry the Perfectly Ordinary Fellow

Perfectly Ordinary, eh? Pfah. I'm waiting for him to have some awesome power. Though he'll probably just be vanilla.

Anyway. Some chaff thrown out about possible alien behaviour in mind-controlling. Reasonable argument about patzer's go-team posts being low on content, votes her... what do you think patzer is, precisely?

Deserves a closer re-read when I have time. His name keeps cropping up.

11. frogman/Echo244 as Thomas the Tenure-Track Professor

HALFWAY TO TENURE! YEAH!

I'm hoping that the two dead werewolf tenure committee members make it easier to pass investigations from now on.

12. Dr Ug as Darryl the Drug-taking Dog

Hope he turns up or someone replaces in; we need that power... and content to go on.

14. Djehutynakht as Remus the Ranger

Lots of roleblocks to play with tonight. I really hope Djehutynakht isn't scum...

Lots of "More to come", couple of posts D2, nothing particular going on in them. Leaning scum.

15. patzer as Luna the Lycanthrope

Probably not an alien. Much as I'd like to suspect some grand reverse psychology thing with the mind-control vote in her direction, it doesn't strike me as patzerish. If she's a werewolf, we can't tell through investigation... and she seems fixed on the alien hunt. Struggled to find anyone scummy D1, FoSes freezeblade today.

I don't read her as town; the third party suggestions sound good, though the investigates-as-wolf thing might cover actually being a wolf. However, I concur with her opinion that the aliens are the biggest threat.

Alien-hunts after ConMan or freezeblade, doesn't see the case on ConMan, FoSes freezeblade while having no strong opinion... I'm reading patzer as non-town for that, it's very much "Well it doesn't really affect *my* win condition, so carry on doing whatever it was you thought you were doing while I get on with other things".

I want to know why she's disregarding wolves, more or less. And talking so much about aliens, I almost think she might be trying to hide behind fluff-posts about aliens while not particularly helping find any. Possibly worth a kill to find out what she is/was, but the jester risk makes me want to avoid a lynch.

16. Van as Heather the Hospital Administrator

Love the power, nurseblocking is pretty useful but some trustworthy doctors might not be a bad plan now we have some confirmed town.

Interesting post following up Sungura's, picking up on the jimbob thread. I'll re-read on that tomorrow. Van neutral-to-town, rereading jimbob.

17. Sabrar as Gary the Grieving Widow

Very much trying to be helpful, in all the easy ways first. I'm wondering what to read in to that.

Big analysis post (yeah yeah, I know). Don't like the certainty that no werewolves bussed their scumbuddy Opus. He was looking a pretty solid lynch D1, he'd have been toast D2 if he'd dived as everyone and their drug-taking-dog would have piled in on the vote, having a scumbuddy or two jump on the D1 wagon could have been a good way to gain some anti-werewolf points.

Fair point on not drilling down on a few individuals, we need to not let an alien or two lurk their way to D6.

Big post, most of which I agree with, took me a while to read. Likes jimbobmacdoodle and freezeblade for the lynch; patzer probably a jester.

18. Sungura as Bunny the Bumblebee Bat

Interesting power. A pile of sensible analysis that I have read and appreciate. Wary of investigation results, though I lean more towards Suzaku's position on this - investigative lies are too likely to be caught by flips. Yes, I'm concerned about the number of investigative powers that might be held by non-town... but a lie, and a flip, or a differing result, throws immediate suspicion on the investigator, and I very much doubt that one non-town side holds all the investigative roles and will co-ordinate them.

Is convinced on the matter of freezeblade being an alien, doesn't want to lynch patzer due to jester concerns.

"Lots more scummy posters out there" but wants freezeblade's head on a platter today.

Strong opinions, smells largely towny even if I somewhat disagree with her.

20. RoadieRich as Oscar the Original GangsterTM

Too quiet. Roleblocked N1, one post D2 promising analysis that has yet to come. We need the kill, and yet he's just not here.

21. jimbobmacdoodle as Jimmy the Janitor

I dunno, really. Either scummy and flailing or non-scum and trying to recover. Lots of text, lots of numbers, some of them he gets wrong. Interesting result from the lynch, I think we need to watch these lists carefully. On my re-read list.

22. Snark as Iggy the Irrelevant Idiot

Waiting for Dr Ug's post before saying what he wants to do with the info. What if that never comes?

Deprived freezeblade of a vote. He's a popular target for attention, probably not co-aligned...

Will go on my re-read list.

23. Faubiguy as Nobody the Nameless

Redirection power. No idea how that factors in to last night's actions.

Will re-read when I'm less tired, if he's worthy of a vote he's worthy of close attention.

26. Znirk as Karl the Karateka

Nurseblocked, probably a good move given the power.

Like the proposal on mind control claims.

Good balanced content but little of it D2. YOLOSWAG mentions him, not on most other people's radar.

Players (dead):
24. Opus_723 as Ulysses the Undersea Explorer - lynched D1, Werewolf

I don't really understand why he didn't dive. OK, he'd have been lynched the next day, but that's another day to muddy the waters.

25. weiyaoli as 'Y' the Yearning Spy - killed N1, Mason

Shame about losing a Mason so quickly, and someone to back up investigative powers.

13. Vytron as Zenith the Zombie - killed N1, Werewolf

Good shot from YOLOSWAG. I'm going to steer clear of going through Vytron's actions because (a) time and (b) making sense of them is tricky at the best of times. There may be some useful hints in here but it's probably safer to ignore than poke through for clues.

19. Dimochka as Elmo the Exquisite Eagle - killed N1, Townie

Not had time to analyse why dimochka was killed. But that's about the most info I'd expect to get from him. I'll have a quick look when I find time.

TLDR:

TOWN

Lawrencelot
Suzaku

RE-READ

ConMan
freezeblade
YOLOSWAG
Djehutynakht
jimbob
Snark
faubiguy

NON-TOWN, NOT SURE WHAT

patzer, though I'd rather not lynch due to possible jester status

NEEDS MORE POSTS

Diemo
Dr Ug
RoadieRich

Not sure how helpful all that is but this is me trying to catch up. I'll try and narrow down my re-reads.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Djehutynakht » Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:53 am UTC

Okay all, for real this time, you will be getting more from me after Thanksgiving.

I am considering where to place my roleblocks.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Suzaku » Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:24 pm UTC

Sungura wrote:Ninja by suzaku, nothing really to add. I see their point but yup, sorry, i trust my scumdar way better than theirs. If there is more confirmation of suzakus alignment id be inclined to vote, but would you really kill me? No. Way more scummy players out there. Youd only kill me if you are scum. So...you can see why i have no plans to jump on that gambit anytime soon.

I may not have been clear about this (as my thoughts were evolving during writing the post you refer to).
I don't see not making yourself available to me as a kill target as either particularly scummy or particularly townie. As I said, both sides (all sides?) have reasons not to, but there are reasons to, as well. You're correct, I probably wouldn't kill you anyway, and I didn't intend to come over as pressuring you (or anyone else) to do so.
That said, I find the fact that you have and present a coherent argument for not vote/unvoting me a sight townier than people who blindly went either way.
I think our main disagreement is in how much credence to give investigation results; I still maintain that even (the majority of) scum-controlled investigation results will be trustworthy.

patzer wrote:
Suzaku wrote:Patzer ... doesn't seem to have any strong views on anyone, which is understandable, but is posting a lot of fluff to conceal that fact.


Really? I thought I had make it quite clear that I don't have strong reads on anyone; wasn't trying to conceal that. Sorry if it seemed that way. :|

I admit I phrased that badly. It should probably say "..., which is understandable, but is posting a lot of fluff to conceal the fact that she's not trying to generate any, either."
I mean to say that for the amount of time you seem to be putting in to this game, you have very little in the way of opinions and arguments to show for it. Having no strong reads is not scummy, but having a high postcount, with some being quite long, involved posts, and still no real opinions stated is the dictionary definition of active lurking, and is, as I said, as scummy as all get out.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Dr Ug » Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:43 pm UTC

Ok,

After a week and a half from hell at work, I have finally had a chance to read through this mammoth thread.

I apologise for my inactivity, but as a result I didn't submit any investigations last night. I have submitted some for tonight just in case the same thing happens again.

Here are my thoughts after D1 (before reveal) - I read through in order without knowing about the reveals (although admittedly there is wine in that).

I thought Opus looked like scum of some sort.
I thought DJ was an alien
I thought Sirgabriel and CF may be druids together
I thought Suzaku could be werewolf, but likely not with Vytron
I thought Vytron and SDK (now freezeblade) were both antitown of some sort
I thought Jimbob and Snark were both town.

Now going with the info that exatly 2 of sungura, znirk, mpolo, van, patzer and DJ are anti-town, I'm going to say I think DJ and patzer are those two.

FOS: patzer
Vote: DJ


In that order because I think DJ is more likely to be alien, and patzer werewolf.

I did not like the whole suzaku thing earlier in Day 1, as has been expressed by multiple people. I don't trust that suzaku is town, as I had her pinged as werewolf, but given Vytron flipped werewolf perhaps that's less so. Although Vytron is good at bussing scumbuddies.
I think Amy is not-werewolf. Unfortunately this doesn't mean she is not anti-town, but the chances are low. She pushed the lynch on opus, and I don't recall her play being that aggressive as mafia.

There is sure to be a lot I've missed reading through 10+ pages in 2 hours, so a couple of questions:

Echo - why do you have Suzaku as one of your town pings? I had the opposite response.

More tomorrow when I can sleep on the walls of text I've just read.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Echo244 » Thu Nov 26, 2015 3:02 pm UTC

I'll be doing my close re-reads of the most suspicious on my list over the next couple of days, but this is a quick easy question:

Dr Ug wrote:Echo - why do you have Suzaku as one of your town pings? I had the opposite response.


My/frogman's investigation result (as Thomas the Tenure-Track Professor). I get Sungura's point about all the potential lying about investigations that could go on, but I'm allowed to believe my own result. As I understand it, there's one redirection power in the game (faubiguy as Nobody the Nameless, redirects onto himself), so it's possible that the result is wrong, but I think the possibility is low enough, and the potential reasoning for doing that sufficiently self-defeating, that I can believe this result.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Misnomer » Thu Nov 26, 2015 5:03 pm UTC

Votals:

patzer (4): jimbobmacdoodle, Djehutynakht, Suzaku, ConMan
ConMan (2): mpolo, SirGabriel
Freezeblade (4): Sungura, moody7277, Lawrencelot, Sabrar
Faubiguy (1): crucialityfactor
Djehutynakht (1): Dr Ug

Not voting (9): YOLOSWAG, Faubiguy, Echo244, Snark, Diemo, znirk, Van, patzer, roadierich

Game Status:
Freezeblade is currently voteless.
Znirk is currently a Nurse.
3 Tenure Committee members remain alive.
11 votes are required to majority lynch.


Please note that I will be somewhat semi-active from mid-afternoon Friday to Sunday evening, GMT - I should have sufficient access to deal with any pressing issues, but if you've got any questions you've been harbouring up then ask them now to avoid disappointment!
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:31 pm UTC

Dr Ug wrote:Ok,

After a week and a half from hell at work, I have finally had a chance to read through this mammoth thread.

I apologise for my inactivity, but as a result I didn't submit any investigations last night. I have submitted some for tonight just in case the same thing happens again.

I think Amy is not-werewolf. Unfortunately this doesn't mean she is not anti-town, but the chances are low. She pushed the lynch on opus, and I don't recall her play being that aggressive as mafia.


I assume Amy is Sungura/Bunny?

Hmm. Ug's claim to having been busy at work is plausible, but it might be excuse to not post much.

Misnomer suggested that all players submit an initial set of actions early, and possibly refine it later. If Dr Ug was town, surely he would realise how important his role is and follow Misnomer's advice?
Or even request replacement.

At this point, the game has been going on for long enough that both of our inactive players (Ug and RoadieRich) are clearly hampering the town effort a bit. If they are indeed loyal to the town, and aware that they don't have the time to post much, then there's a good chance that they'd request replacement.

Due to the fact that they haven't done this, FoS Dr Ug and RR
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:33 pm UTC

Oh, also, I'll

Vote: Freezeblade

We're getting to that point in the day when it's a good idea to vote for whoever you think is the most suspicious, rather than just sticking to FOSes. And, IMO, that is freezeblade.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:52 pm UTC

Quick reactions on our 'newcomers':

- I really want to believe that nobody feels the need to lie about IRL stuff just because they want to cover their tracks. This is just a game, right? So for now I accept Dr Ug's explanation with the caveat that he really needs to post some analysis that contains his detailed reasonings as well, because giving us just his thoughts doesn't tell us anything. How did you arrive at those conclusions? Also, it looks to me like you didn't read through the D2 stuff. Don't you think that voting without considering all of the available information is a bit premature?
- Somehow Echo244's post rubs me the wrong way. She takes the time to list everyone but only has very few useful content. Again, giving us readings without explaining them is not enough, I somehow expected more details after her first post. Nevertheless I'm willing to wait for her re-reads to get a more accurate picture.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby mpolo » Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:09 pm UTC

Looking at freezeblade, the most damning thing is his lack of content since he's replaced. SDK had some weirdness, of course. Am I missing something on freezeblade post replacement?

I am fairly happy with my vote on Con Man, but I don't feel like it's fixed in stone.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Echo244 » Fri Nov 27, 2015 9:51 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:- Somehow Echo244's post rubs me the wrong way. She takes the time to list everyone but only has very few useful content. Again, giving us readings without explaining them is not enough, I somehow expected more details after her first post. Nevertheless I'm willing to wait for her re-reads to get a more accurate picture.


Sorry, I had planned to explain everything, but after a few hours I got bogged down, it was midnight, I was exhausted, not concentrating properly, I had work the next day, and I decided to just post what I had at that point rather than hold everything back until I could fill in every last detail. In hindsight, trying to give everyone a quick look with details and an explanation was probably a bad idea, but hey, a new player in her first big game and her first complex game (never mind first big complex game) is liable to make mistakes. I've at least narrowed it down to a shorter list, I'll be trying to go through that at the weekend. If I find time today I'll be looking at freezeblade, who a bunch of people want to lynch and was tied for most votes with patzer (until she voted for him), and I worry patzer might be some sort of third party, potentially a jester.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Fri Nov 27, 2015 1:43 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:- Somehow Echo244's post rubs me the wrong way. She takes the time to list everyone but only has very few useful content. Again, giving us readings without explaining them is not enough, I somehow expected more details after her first post. Nevertheless I'm willing to wait for her re-reads to get a more accurate picture.

[/quote]

I disagree with you here. Listing all the players is easy, but analysis is time-consuming. Echo's post seems to be reasonable, and she's probably posted as much content in that post as I have in the entire game, lol.

I really don't think Echo is suspicious. Especially as she intends to make a follow-up to that post.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Van » Fri Nov 27, 2015 5:43 pm UTC

Getting caught up after Turkeytime and some sickness, this caught my eye:
Sabrar, in the jimbob spoiler wrote:Especially with the scums most likely being Aliens (which patzer is not)
Really? And you know this because ...? So you're definitely aligned together, but this seems like such an unintentional slip that I'm guessing you both are druids. It'd definitely fit with patzer's playstyle.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Fri Nov 27, 2015 6:09 pm UTC

@Van: This is exactly why I advised at the beginning of that post to read it in order and in full. In the first analysis (where I looked at crucialityfactor) you can see my full reasoning why patzer cannot be an alien. Please read that through as well and then tell me if you have any more questions.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Nov 27, 2015 6:16 pm UTC

Van, unless crucialityfactor was lying, Sabrar can't be a druid or scum teammate with patzer, because he can't chat. However, I've been suspecting them of being teammates for some time, and was planning on doing a post about it after rereading some time this evening or tomorrow. With Patzer's semi willingness to claim, I've been considering possibilities.

@patzer, I'd like you to claim your alignment, please, or have a good reason not to.

If it matches my suspicion, and once I've had a chance to reread, I will be willing to unvote and look elsewhere for scum.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Van » Fri Nov 27, 2015 7:23 pm UTC

Ah, sorry. I did read your post, but spaced it out over like 4 hours, so I was considering each spoiler separately. I think I see what you're saying.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Echo244 » Fri Nov 27, 2015 9:32 pm UTC

SDK/freezeblade:

Summary of posts

Spoiler:
SDK

*"Suzaku, are you town?", anti-alien focus, suggests the Suzaku vote/unvote gambit, asks for volunteers to get targeted by Heather
*Early vote, OMGYS-ey, for DJ, doesn't back down on it.
*Mod-query, no time to say much...
*Votes Snark, "No way, not a chance" as the only explanation given
*Gets round to explaining himself, strongly against Snark for wanting to lynch a mason claim
*Requests replacement, backing down on Snark and Lawrencelot

freezeblade appears!

*Says hi, distances himself from SDK's play.
*Dithers about the use of his power, asks for suggestions
*Weak reads D1, wants to wait for something super-scummy
*D2, not under alien control, didn't target anyone last night (with a public result, that's obvious), wanted better reads. Consistent if nothing else.
*Unofficial votals (so he's reading, if not commenting much), picks up on patzer's "Yay" post as pingy, similarly with moody. Rationalises the lack of mind control as inactive players being aliens or targets. Votes patzer to break the tie, before remembering he doesn't have one.
*Remembers he's been Iggy-ed

That's all.

I had a quick glance at some of the arguments on SDK/freezeblade on the way through, but this is my read...

SDK... I suspect busy more than anything. Reading, quick short posts, no justification until people jumped on him... I'm wary of trying to read anything in to that.

freezeblade... has been playing. At the very least reading, as we can tell from his last-but-one post where he lists the votals. He's not sharing much of what he sees; pushes patzer and moody as "pingy" for being self-congratulatory. That's... pretty weak reasoning. And OMGYS-ey as patzer is the most-voted-for after himself.

He's not discussing use of his power. With 4 lynches before the aliens win, and up to 4 aliens, never mind the werewolves, that could be a useful power for town. However, reading it closely, the weld is only for lynching, which makes it extremely tricky for non-town to use in support of their cause.

He's not particularly defending himself or engaging with the criticism, just trying to deflect by pointing at people going "Yay, dead werewolves" or "Yay, Suzaku is town". There's 13 pages and that's all he finds suspicious? He's not really commented on anything, much, not investigation results, last night's deaths, the votes of D1, anything. There's an argument for "Nyuh, D1 is fluff" but this is D2.

No discussion of the fact the aliens are pushing for patzer's lynch via mind control, nothing but the "Yay, two dead werewolves" bit and a "trying too hard to look towny" comment, and that would be meriting a vote if he had one.

That's... pretty terribly scummy, in my (thus far very short) book. No substantiated justification, just a poor attempt at self-preservation. Nothing particularly helpful to town.

My self-doubt is worrying about jester status, but we can't investigate everyone before the lynch. I really don't read freezeblade as town. He's just not helping. I don't know which way to call it - alien or wolf, and we need to deal with the aliens before D6... but he's not town.

FoS: freezeblade.

I take patzer's comment about now being the time to upgrade FoSes to votes (which I note in patzer's case pushes Freezeblade closer to a lynch and leaves patzer safer), but there are more people to look at - if pushed for time, I'd probably vote freezeblade right now, there's a couple of others I picked up on but he's not looked good when I started reading closely. I'll try and devote time to going through the rest of my not-very-short-list over the weekend. I'll be looking for good research candidates as well as potential vote targets - suggestions welcome, I'd like to get going on that so that the remains of my committee have a chance to vote, if pushed right now I'd pick someone off my re-read list.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:00 pm UTC

Echo244 wrote:However, reading it closely, the weld is only for lynching, which makes it extremely tricky for non-town to use in support of their cause.

That's not true at all. If freezeblade chooses who to weld, then all he has to do is weld any two players not allied with him, and if they get lynched he's closer to winning. The good news is the werewolves and lone wolves want aliens dead as much as we do, so it's only really a problem if freezeblade happens to be an alien. Still, if we're not going to lynch him today (and I would recommend not lynching him today because his power is so useful for alien hunting; if we still think he's an alien, we can lynch him a couple days from now), then I think the town should decide who he will weld.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:54 pm UTC

As promised, here's my thoughts re. Sabrar/patzer following a re-read.

The first interaction of any kind between the two of them was indirectly two real life days, when Sabrar criticizes people for voting for Suzaku without discussion. Patzer had done so by this point, if rather late in comparison to others. Around this time they were both focusing on Lawrencelot, for his vote on roadierich. This isn't a tell on its own, since a large number of us were rather suspicious.

Their first direct interaction came following Lawrencelot's mason claim. Patzer had earlier seemed pretty sure of Lawrencelot being third party. Sabrar then suggests possible ways of Lawrencelot being third party, which patzer strongly agrees as a possibility. Sabrar later agrees with patzer's re. a possible slip-up by Lawrencelot.

This post here suggests that Sabrar is either trying to distance himself from patzer or that they are in fact not buddies. However, at the same time Sabrar really isn't all that critical of patzer's actions, and simply IGMEOYs her. Possibly an attempt to distance but without directly bussing her? In fact, 24 hours later, he goes on to defend patzer from the accusations that some of us were leveling at her regarding her lack of strong opinions on anyone, before voting for freezeblade soon afterwards, indirectly defending patzer in the process, since she was one of the possible lynch wagons.

Early D2, Sabrar reiterates patzer's earlier question regarding finding ConMan scummy for not taking a strong opinion, directed at the players voting for her. In the same post, he also says he thinks freezeblade is a better lynch target than patzer. When analysing the claims, he asks patzer why he targeted znirk rather than someone more scummy. Could be legitimately suspicious, but could easily be seen as advising his teammate where not to target in the future. Patzer subsequently responds, but nothing really to read in that.

It's at this point that patzer even suggests roleclaiming. I haven't double-checked, but I don't think anyone had suggested she claim at this point. It also immediately implies that she has a claim that could be verified, i.e. lover, or third-party of some kind. Possibly also scum who has discussed with a teammate that they could fake claim something, but unlikely. He reiterates that he can prove his role 24 hours later. Suggests most likely one of survivor, druid, or lover (or scum faking one of those).

On that note, Sabrar says this "In case patzer can really prove her innocence as stated before this looks incredibly scummy." To me, this casts suspicions on patzer being able to prove her role, which could be read as not-teammate-with-patzer!Sabrar, but also could be a hint suggesting not to claim by Sabrar.

@Sabrar, apologies if you already explained this, but you said "Suspects patzer being Alien which we know she's not" - why do we know this? Oh, never mind, just re-read your wall o' text post. New question: when did you come to the conclusion discussed re. patzer not being alien? Was it in writing this post?

In the wall o' text, a number of points are discussing patzer. That suggests to me that he may be concerned with defending patzer. I also don't like his certainty that patzer is not alien, given the other possibilities (e.g. fake claim by crucialityfactor, genuine claim, but fake target by aliens etc - he dismisses some of these out of hand). In that post he says that patzer is probably third party, all sounding like he is trying to defend patzer to me. In his comments on Suzaku he points out something that patzer had said about him. I find it interesting that of the 8 people other than patzer looked at in depth, 6 of them discuss patzer. This might be a side effect of her being a) somebody lots of people are suspicious of and b) one of the more active players, but still. His summary includes the statement "it seems even more clear to me that patzer is neither and we want to avoid mislynching her". I almost wonder whether this whole post is written with the thought in the back of the mind to try to protect patzer.

Following that post, patzer comments that it looks impressive, and that's about it. I'm surprised that there wasn't more comments here, but then I'm aware I haven't exactly commented on everything said about me either.

The final bit of interaction is patzer disagreeing with Sabrar re. Echo's posting style. I don't think this either detracts or adds to the possibility that they are teammates.

Overall, whilst I'm not convinced that they are definitely teammates, I give it a high chance of being the case. As I said earlier, I think patzer should claim, assuming there isn't a good reason not to (and in my opinion that reason is essentially going to be because she's a lover). I'm expecting it to involve Sabrar being her team-mate. I don't want to state what I believe her alignment to be at the moment, because I want to hear her claim. However, I think anyone can read between the lines and see what I expect. I think a claim would be beneficial, if confirmed, since it allows us to focus our lynches on scum rather than third party (or town obviously), where lynches are essentially wasted.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:59 pm UTC

Echo244 wrote:I'll be looking for good research candidates as well as potential vote targets - suggestions welcome.
My instinct is to try to clear our remaining killers (namely Yoloswag and RoadieRich, in that order), since those abilities in scum hands would be scary. Alternatively, maybe DJ would be a good target, simply so we know what to do about his potentially ridiculous role-blocking capability. These are basically based entirely on their roles though. If there's someone else you think who looks scummy in your eyes, it would probably be best to go with that.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Sat Nov 28, 2015 12:28 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@patzer, I'd like you to claim your alignment, please, or have a good reason not to.


I'd rather not claim at the moment, and find it curious that you seem to believe that you know whether I should claim or not.
If I thought I should claim, I would do so, whether or not you had asked me to.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Dr Ug » Sat Nov 28, 2015 1:32 am UTC

patzer wrote:I assume Amy is Sungura/Bunny?
Yes
patzer wrote:
Hmm. Ug's claim to having been busy at work is plausible, but it might be excuse to not post much.
You can look at my track record (even as a mod) if you like. I am a surgical trainee and frequently get stuck at work for 16+ hours per day, and when that happens every day for a week, I don't get time to post.
patzer wrote:
Misnomer suggested that all players submit an initial set of actions early, and possibly refine it later. If Dr Ug was town, surely he would realise how important his role is and follow Misnomer's advice?
Or even request replacement.
Except I only read my role PM, which didn't contain my actual role (which was in the start of day post). The first time I actually read the thread at all, was yesterday when I posted.
patzer wrote:
At this point, the game has been going on for long enough that both of our inactive players (Ug and RoadieRich) are clearly hampering the town effort a bit. If they are indeed loyal to the town, and aware that they don't have the time to post much, then there's a good chance that they'd request replacement.
So you're saying I should ask for replacement because I wasn't active earlier?
patzer wrote:
Due to the fact that they haven't done this, FoS Dr Ug and RR
This is a very defensive post in response to an FoS, feels like patzer is trying to push the lynch off himself and onto me for no real reason, and is enough for me to:

Unvote: DJ
Vote: Patzer
Where did my old signature go? :(


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