Smalltown Werewolf PYP - F is for Finished!

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D4: D is for Death (duh)

Postby Van » Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:30 pm UTC

Okay. Not much time, so here's rough thoughts. I skimmed D1-D3 and did a pretty decent re-read of today. Post-by-post analysis will have to wait for D5, in the meantime...

Suzaku - I do not regret nursifying him. IMO, Patzer was low hanging fruit for a scum NK. Sabrar had basically claimed Lovers, and then spent some time trying to backpedal (why, I'll admit I'm not sure..). Patzer's strange behavior and Sabrar's weird rebuttal of the link between them made for a perfect alibi. Before you ask: yes, this same line of thought would allow for him to be town who had made a mistake. At the start of D3, he is remarkably uncaring for taking out two town in one night. Come D4 and being nursed, he's "not happy" with being nursified, but doesn't pressure me or analyze me. In short, he got caught with his hand in the murdering townies cookie jar.
YOLOSWAG - After catching up on sleep, I'm kinda buying the argument against him. Moreso due to his posts than the (lack of) mind control. If you look at his posts, you'll spot a few trends: 1) he's active about announcing who he killed 2) he likes to remind people that he can't be alien/werewolf because he killed one of each 3) he's said he will analyze people several times and proceeded to never do so. I'm still not 100% sold on the mind control argument, since I missed it too, but I think he's not town.
jimbobmacdoodle - He's definitely not town. I don't think he's a druid, and my gut says Jimbob is lying about being a werewolf.

RoadieRich - I want to re-analyze tomorrow.

The following people are somewhere on the scale from not-directly-scummy to town. I'm not going to say where because we still have like a billion kills floating around.
Znirk
SirGabriel
Madge
ConMan

So, I am going to:
:arrow: :arrow: Vote: #HBC | YOLOSWAG

I guess this depends on the results of deaths, but my leads for tomorrow are Suzaku and (maybe) RR. Also ConMan a bit for Znirk question.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D4: D is for Death (duh)

Postby RoadieRich » Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:54 pm UTC

Just to make sure it goes through:

Vote: YOLOSWAG
73, de KE8BSL loc EN26.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D4: D is for Death (duh)

Postby Misnomer » Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:56 pm UTC

Votals:

Madge (1): jimbobmacdoodle
YOLOSWAG (4): znirk, SirGabriel, van, roadierich
Znirk (1): ConMan

Not voting (3): YOLOSWAG, Suzaku, Madge

Game Status:
Znirk and Suzaku are both currently nurses.
2 Tenure Committee members remain alive.

9 players remain, so 5 votes required to majority lynch.
Soft deadline set for 8pm GMT, Thursday 17 December - just over two hours from now.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D4: D is for Death (duh)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:02 pm UTC

Unvote
Vote roadierich
Unvote
Vote HBC | Yoloswag
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D4: D is for Death (duh)

Postby Misnomer » Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:10 pm UTC

And that's a majority vote! Day end to follow - please do not post during this time.

Day 4 final votals:

YOLOSWAG (5): znirk, SirGabriel, van, roadierich, jimbobmacdoodle
Znirk (1): ConMan

Not voting (3): YOLOSWAG, Suzaku, Madge

As his friends and neighbours turned against him, Marco the Meticulous US Marine was rendered speechless. Surely, they could not expect him of wrongdoing? He'd killed a werewolf after all - and an alien! 'No, no...' he told himself, 'This is all just a misunderstanding... they'll come to their senses and change their mind shortly...'

But they didn't. A swift trip to the gallows and Marco was nothing but a corpse swinging in the wind...


#HBC|Yoloswag (Marco the Meticulous US Marine) has been lynched and is now dead.

Night actions will now be processed. Please be patient and continue not to post while this is going on.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Misnomer » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:05 pm UTC

ALIEN INVASION CALLED OFF!

The planned extraterrestrial invasion of Smalltown has been cancelled, the Gazette can exclusively reveal! Whereas only days previously the complete subjugation of the town to imperial galactic rule was widely expected by many, now it seems the whole plan has been abandoned. A spokesperson for the Mayor's office - who we suspect may just be the Mayor herself putting on a silly voice over the phone - expressed her frustration at the inevitable loss of tourist income that would result, branding the would-be invaders 'deeply inconsiderate'. Although experts are putting down the cancellation to the elimination of the alien's advanced infiltration party, this paper argues that they may have in fact been put of by the ridiculous tax system imposed by (continued pg.4).

The surviving citizens of Smalltown rejoiced at the news. Could it really be possible? Had they really defeated the extraterrestrial menace? Overcome with excitement, they rushed over to inspect Marco's corpse. Green scaly skin, creepy long fingers, huge bulging eyes... there could be no doubt about it. They had caught their final alien.

#HBC|YOLOSWAG (Marco the Meticulous US Marine) was an Alien (Anti-Town), and also a Tenure Committee member.

The Alien faction has been eliminated


Practically dancing with joy, the remaining five cit- oh, sorry, didn't I mention? There were another three deaths during the night.

Jimbobmacdoodle, Madge and Van were all killed during the night.

Wandering over to inspect Jimmy's corpse first, the townsfolk soon realised that his confession to werewolfhood yesterday was, for once, the actual truth. Someone - or something - had indeed taken out another werewolf.


Jimbobmacdoodle (Jimmy the Janitor) was a Werewolf (Anti-Town).

Buoyed by the revelation of yet another anti-town corpse, the group - there really was too few people left to call them a crowd any more - went over to examine Xela's body. This was a task they carried out with some trepidation - what if she bled acid blood? Or indeed, what if some new terrifying creature burst out her chest and attacked them? It was therefore with a sense of relief, if not something of an anti-climax, when she turned out to be human after all.

Madge (Xela the Xenomorph) was a Townie (Town).

Moving on towards Heather's body, it was pretty clear she was also human. Or at least, clear to Father Patrick, Perry and Oscar at any rate. Karl and Suzaku had the second they realised Heather was dead started running around crying 'free at last!' as they tore their scrubs off of them, too busy to pay any attention to what secrets the corpse actually held. But as it turned out, Heather had died clutching her journal...
Heather's Diary wrote:Day 1:
God I hate this town. I hate them all. I can't wait to betray them.

Day 2:
Yep, still hating everyone. Need to make more nurses. More nurses to hate!

Day 3:
Hate hate hate hate haaaaaaaate....

Day 4:
Still hating. Is it time to be all traitory soon? I hate not being able to act on my hate immediately...
Blimey, thought the townsfolk. She really *did* hate us.


Van (Heather the Hospital Administrator) was a Traitor (Third party). Following her death, Suzaku and Znirk are no longer nurses but have their original roles restored.

'Oh heavenly Lord', began Father Patrick before anyone was able to stop him, 'Let us pray for the souls of all those who have-'

But suddenly a loud, screechy voice cut him off: 'Attention residents! Attention all residents!'

Looking for the source of the irritating noise, the townsfolk turned to see the Mayor standing on the balcony of the Town Hall, shouting through a battered old megaphone.

'Attention residents! This is a storm warning. A heavy snowfall is expected to arrive in Smalltown later today. please ensure that you are all finished with all of your silly Vampire-hunting or whatever it is that you've been doing before it hits. Thank you!'

As if on cue, a sudden chill wind blew through the corpse-strewn town square. Smalltown was running out of time - in more ways than one...


Soft deadline for today set for 6pm GMT, Wednesday 23 December. If the results of the lynch and subsequent night actions do not end the game, then there will be a hiatus until play resumes on 3 January 2016. Feel free (but not obliged) to accelerate the end of the game before then by lynching quicker!

It is now day 5.

Game status:
1 tenure committee member remains alive.
5 players remaining, so 3 votes needed to majority lynch.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Van » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:09 pm UTC

haaaaate
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:12 pm UTC

Awooooo.... erk.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:19 pm UTC

Okay, Yoloswag was lynched, RoadieRich was vote-blocked, and Suzaku was still a nurse, so Madge was the only player left with a kill ability. Assuming Madge killed jimbob, that leaves two kills unaccounted for. I suspect all kills take place simultaneously; if that is the case, then we must have a lone wolf (Suzaku couldn't have been responsible for one because he would have still been a nurse at the time), and we might or might not also have at least one werewolf (jimbob could have killed someone at the same time that he was killed).

Just to double check, Suzaku, did you submit a kill target last night, and if so, is that target dead?

I'll do analysis of the remaining players when I have a chance.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby ConMan » Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:17 am UTC

Well don't I look stupid. (Don't answer that.)

Just to quickly review, the people left are:

SirGabriel - Father Patrick
Znirk - Karl
RoadieRich - Oscar
ConMan - Perry
Suzaku - Suzaku

And the roles left are:
Town: 1+
Werewolf: 1+ (Since we haven't been told of their elimination)
Lone Wolf: 1 (as Sir Gabriel points out, we still have an inexplicable death)
Druids: 0 or 2
Sibling Survivors: 0 or 2
Jester: 0-1
Traitor: 0+

So the possible scenarios are:

One each of Town/Wolf/Lone Wolf, and a pair of third parties - either Druid, Survivor or Traitor (although 3 Traitors seems like overkill)
One Jester or Traitor, one Lone Wolf, and {Town, Werewolf} are of size {1, 2} in some order
One Lone Wolf, and Town/Werewolves are either 3/1, 2/2 or 1/3

If it were 3 wolves versus one town and one lone wolf, would the game be over? I think it would practically have to be, since in that situation wolves would have control of the lynch, plus one factional night kill and a good chance at having at least one night kill ability. If the Town and Lone Wolf were Roadie and Suzaku (in some order), then the wolves could lynch Suzaku, block RR, then night kill him for the win. And, you know, I'd be a werewolf, which I'm not (which I'm sure the real wolf or wolves would be happy to attest to, right?).

So maximum 2 werewolves, probably just one of them. Plus one definite Lone Wolf, and one definite Town. If there are Sibling Survivors out there, I think they want to ally with either the Werewolf or Town. Their wincon is in direct opposition to the Lone Wolf, but they can win with either of the others and in particular if they ally with the Wolf they can effectively work like a 3-wolf team as described. If there are Druids, then they probably don't have a kill amongst them, otherwise they probably would have used it on their partner by now. So they either want to get lynched, then somehow stop everyone dying from kills, then get lynched again, which is incredibly difficult; or get both of their number targeted for kills, which might be do-able depending on the arrangement of the remaining three players but probably requires them to reveal and make a deal with someone, probably the Lone Wolf or Werewolf.

So either Druids or Survivors probably want to claim and make an offer at this point, if they're around. If not, then we're either 3/1/1, 2/2/1, or have a Traitor or two. And I think Traitors also want to claim and try to deal with either of the wolves, maybe? It might be a bit trickier for them since they don't know if the numbers are on their side or not.

I *think* the arrangement that's most likely is either 2/2/1 or 3/1/1. I'm hoping 3/1/1 because I'd much rather have some friends on my side. I'll try to get a read in today and put a vote down - I'll be heading up to my parents' place tomorrow, and I don't know whether I'll have much chance to check the forums or not, so I essentially need to make my call today and hope for the best.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:21 am UTC

ConMan wrote:Werewolf: 1+ (Since we haven't been told of their elimination)

Will we be told when all the werewolves are eliminated?

I thought that was just for the aliens.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby ConMan » Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:26 am UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
ConMan wrote:Werewolf: 1+ (Since we haven't been told of their elimination)

Will we be told when all the werewolves are eliminated?

I thought that was just for the aliens.

I double-checked when I was making that post, and Misnomer answered in the affirmative back on D1.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby ConMan » Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:27 am UTC

Here we go.

Misnomer wrote:
Znirk wrote:Rule question: Does this imply that we will be told when the aliens are eliminated? Or can Ulysses try diving on day 6, and the attempt will fail if there are any aliens left?
I will inform all players if/when the werewolf faction and the aliens faction are eliminated.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:59 am UTC

Okay, here's a quick analysis post:

Znirk: Nothing has stood out as scummy to me, and jimbob's claimed results make me think he is town.

Suzaku: Must be either town or werewolf. His actions don't seem scummy to me, but the fact that the werewolves chose him as Echo's first target makes me think he might be a werewolf. But he's not my first pick for scum.

RoadieRich: Based on jimbob's last-minute voteblock, almost certainly not werewolf. Killing Sungura would be an odd choice for a lone wolf; there were abilities out there which could be dangerous to a lone wolf, and RoadieRich had not yet aroused Sungura's suspicions too much. Possibly a second traitor, but probably not a wolf.

ConMan: Some of his actions seem very scummy to me; I'll go into more detail next post. But he's definitely my favored lynch target.

FoS ConMan
Because I don't think it's a good idea to put down votes before people have a chance to discuss when there are only 5 living players and at least 2 are scum.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:45 am UTC

Analysis of ConMan:
Said killing aliens should be our first priority, then werewolves. Downplays the need to hunt lone wolves. (Admittedly, hunting lone wolves is harder, but each lone wolf you hit gets rid of one kill controlled by anti-town, while killing a werewolf doesn't get you anything right away. I didn't notice this at first, but it could be a lone wolf tell.)
Opposes voting Suzaku until we know his alignment.
Starts the wagon on Lawrencelot.
Admits that he looks suspicious but says investigators shouldn't all target the same person.
Unvotes, chooses to withhold his vote D1, even though doing so could cause a no lynch if Opus decided to dive. (Could be scum not wanting to be on the winning wagon with jimbob's ability around?)
Repeatedly claims that investigators looking at him would see nothing interesting, claims scum killed dimochka to make him look bad.
Claims we need more kills out there, ostensibly because that helps against the aliens.
Votes Suzaku after Echo calls Suzaku town.
Says he has "a small clue that Van is less likely to be scum than, say, Djehutynakht". (I have no idea what he could be talking about, and he never brings it up again).
Voted patzer for lack of content.
Not convinced that nursifying Znirk is good for town.
Says that, if he couldn't lynch patzer, he would lynch Dr Ug. (Admittedly, Dr Ug had very little content at that point, but he also had one of the best investigative abilities).
Says we need to focus on killing aliens (even though it was day 4 and we were down to 9 players so we easily could have killed everyone by the end of day 6.)
Very interested in knowing who killed who, even the confirmed scum. (Not sure if this is a scumtell, but it struck me as odd).
Seriously considered jimbob's offer to reveal the alien if he was still alive the following day.
Discusses consequences of lynching Van and unnursifying Znirk and Suzaku. Asks znirk if he would target him that night (could be lone wolf PGO trying to get in a free kill).

Several things pinged me about his posts, and he multiple times downplays the danger of lone wolves and gets defensive about his ability being harmless. Also doesn't want his ability taken away, even though as far as I can tell (based on mpolo's results) it has done nothing useful for town. Vanilla and PGO seem like the obvious options for a secret ability for a "Perfectly Ordinary Fellow" (either his secret is that he actually is perfectly ordinary, or he kills anyone who gets too curious about his secret), neither of which seems particularly helpful to town, especially since, if he's a PGO, he knew he would kill one of the best investigative abilities in the game if he didn't do anything to persuade dim to change his vote.

ConMan definitely looks to me like the scummiest player left alive. He's probably lone wolf, although I can't rule out the possibility of werewolf. The only reason I'm not voting him is there are only 5 players and scum could easily cause a mislynch if I happen to be wrong.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby ConMan » Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:45 am UTC

EBWOP/Insert above actual analysis: I forgot to account for having a Jester rather than a Traitor in a 2/1/1/1 or 1/2/1/1 scenario. Um, good luck? I have no thoughts on how that one should play out.

More useful info - deaths and who we know or suspect they were done by:

D1:
Opus_723 (wolf) - lynch by Sungura (town), znirk, mpolo (town), Van (traitor), patzer (town), Djehutynakht (jester)
weiyaoli (town) -
Vytron (wolf) - YOLO (alien)
dimochka (town) -

Presumably 1 WW and 1 LW kill? It looks like either (a) one of the Lone Wolves or the Werewolves withheld their kill, or (b) Lawrencealot successfully vegetarianised someone, or (c) two kills collided.

D2:
SDK/freezeblade (alien) - lynch by Sungura (town), moody7277 (town), Lawrencelot (town), Sabrar (town), patzer (town), Echo244 (wolf), mpolo (town), zombie!Dimochka (alien), Van (traitor), znirk, Snark (lone wolf)
moody7277 (town) -
crucialityfactor (wolf) -
patzer (town) - Suzaku
Sabrar (town) - Lover death
Sungura (town) - RoadieRich
Faubiguy/z!dimochka (alien) - YOLO (alien)

I still find it crazy that YOLOSWAG killed his own teammate, but otherwise he made a huge gambit claiming someone else's kill before anyone else had the chance to say anything about it. A wild play on his behalf either way. So, assuming that he really did kill z!dim, it seems pretty clear that CF was the LW kill and moody was the WW target. Again, missing the second LW kill.

D3:
Djehutynakht (jester) - lynched by ConMan, Van (traitor), Dr Ug (town), Suzaku, SirGabriel, mpolo (town), Snark (lone wolf), Djehutynakht (jester)
mpolo (town) - Suzaku
Dr Ug (town) -
Lawrencealot (town) -
frogman/Echo (wolf) -
Snark (lone wolf) - Madge (town)

One of those was presumably YOLOSWAG's, then leaving once more a WW and a LW. My suspicion is that the werewolf kill was Lawrencealot to either unvegetarianify one of their number or prevent being vegetarianified on future nights. Then, frankly, it's anyone's guess as to how the other two were split. I don't think YOLO had a particularly strong reason to kill Echo that night, since she was investigating jimbob, so Dr Ug-YOLO and Echo-LW is the obvious arrangement there, but YOLO was doing so many crazy things I think I'd believe anything in terms of his actions at this point.

D4:
YOLOSWAG (alien) - lynched by znirk, SirGabriel, van (traitor), roadierich, jimbobmacdoodle (wolf)
jimbob (wolf) - Madge
Madge (town) -
Van (traitor) -

I think we can trust that Madge went with her claimed kill target, so then it's just a question of whether WW killed Madge or Van.

As for other votes that didn't lynch, they are:
D1:
Freezeblade (alien) - moody7277 (town), Vytron (wolf), Sabrar (town)
ConMan - dimochka (town)
Lawrencealot (town) - RoadieRich
Vytron (wolf) - weiyaoli (town)
Patzer (town) - Lawrencealot (town), jimbobmacdoodle (wolf), crucialityfactor (wolf), SirGabriel
Djehutynakht (jester) - Diemo/Madge (town)

D2:
patzer (town) - Djehutynakht (jester), ConMan, Dr Ug (town), crucialityfactor (wolf)
ConMan - SirGabriel
YOLOSWAG (alien) - jimbobmacdoodle

D3:
Snark (lone wolf) - jimbobmacdoodle (wolf), Echo244 (wolf), Lawrencelot (town)

D4:
Znirk - ConMan

I would say Roadie's vote on Lawrencealot D1 was concerning, but that came between Law's own mason claim and wei's coming to his defence. It's worrying that Roadie really hasn't been active a lot other than a burst of discussion on D2, and I'm still trying to work out whether the research proposal on him was legit or not. At a guess, maybe? Echo's proposal of jimbob D3 was presumably to either make us trust his results or potentially to let him be bussed once his results came into question; so would they pull a similar trick on D2 or were they just trying to nail down some factions for the kill abilities? I think I'd rank Roadie as least-townie-but-still-town.

I'm finding it hard to see much about Znirk that suggests he's a wolf - my vote on him yesterday was more based on a suspicion he might have been alien, but obviously that's not the case.

Looking at Suzaku, I'm seeing an interesting kind of undercurrent going on. First there's being frogman/Echo's D1 research proposal, and sure that's fine and we were all thinking it was a good idea. But let's throw a few more things into the mix. First, Suzaku has only had one vote on anyone at deadline for the entire game, and that was the jester!Dje lynch. We both had our reasons for caution on D1, but to not have any final votes on two other days, and a fairly safe vote on the third? Then there's him on D3 saying that he, like Snark, was in favour of following Lawrencealot on the lynch - when Lawrencealot was calling RR scummy. Snark was doing it because it let him look like an uncertain townie, and scum!Suzaku could have a very similar line of reasoning. The final thing I'd note is that Van died last night, right after nursifying Suzaku. Scum!Suzaku with two kills at his disposal would only have to avoid today's lynch, and he'd be in a strong position to win; in that case, killing Van would be risky but would give him his best chance of winning.

SirGabriel has been posting a lot of content, which is always good, but has also been really hard to get a read on. Part of it has been that I've always (as far as I can tell) been skirting the edges of his own scumdar, so I've had to try to keep my feelings of OMGUS separate from what I think of his efforts to actually analyse stuff. He was one of the biggest proponents of the Opus lynch, which is obviously in his favour, but then once that wagon got going he unvoted and put the vote on patzer to ensure there was no tie for second place. I dunno. And, since writing this, I've noted he's posted something labelling me as scum, so once I post this I'll go back and respond to that.

FoS Suzaku
FoS SirGabriel
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby ConMan » Fri Dec 18, 2015 4:23 am UTC

SirGabriel wrote:Analysis of ConMan:
Said killing aliens should be our first priority, then werewolves. Downplays the need to hunt lone wolves. (Admittedly, hunting lone wolves is harder, but each lone wolf you hit gets rid of one kill controlled by anti-town, while killing a werewolf doesn't get you anything right away. I didn't notice this at first, but it could be a lone wolf tell.)

Sure, and D3 you said the exact same thing (I wouldn't have noticed but I was scanning the thread just then). D1 and D2, Lone Wolves were both the hardest scum faction to spot (because they have no connections) and the one least worth worrying about (because they would be taking out aliens and werewolves with the rest of us), and also the only scum faction not guaranteed to exist, although that was quickly disproven. Come D4, and aliens were still the thing I was most worried about simply because they just had to lay low for a couple of days to win - of course, turns out the last alien hadn't laid low for most of the game.

SirGabriel wrote:Unvotes, chooses to withhold his vote D1, even though doing so could cause a no lynch if Opus decided to dive. (Could be scum not wanting to be on the winning wagon with jimbob's ability around?)

Or by the time I was reading the thread it was clear Lawrencealot was in the clear (or near enough to it) but I had no time to make a decent call on the secondary bandwagon forming on patzer at the time.

SirGabriel wrote:Repeatedly claims that investigators looking at him would see nothing interesting, claims scum killed dimochka to make him look bad.

And it worked, didn't it? Although obviously my apparently defensive response didn't help.

SirGabriel wrote:Says he has "a small clue that Van is less likely to be scum than, say, Djehutynakht". (I have no idea what he could be talking about, and he never brings it up again).

Because I couldn't say much more on the subject, and apparently my information was faulty anyway.

SirGabriel wrote:Very interested in knowing who killed who, even the confirmed scum. (Not sure if this is a scumtell, but it struck me as odd).


SirGabriel wrote:Also doesn't want his ability taken away, even though as far as I can tell (based on mpolo's results) it has done nothing useful for town.

I'm sorry, where did I say that? I was fine with Van targeting me, I just didn't think I was a great target at the time. Heck, if I really was a PGO LW I probably would have dropped a lot more hints about how good it would be for me to be a doctor/nurse.

SirGabriel wrote:Vanilla and PGO seem like the obvious options for a secret ability for a "Perfectly Ordinary Fellow" (either his secret is that he actually is perfectly ordinary, or he kills anyone who gets too curious about his secret), neither of which seems particularly helpful to town, especially since, if he's a PGO, he knew he would kill one of the best investigative abilities in the game if he didn't do anything to persuade dim to change his vote.

And I *still* claim that the dimochka kill came out of left field for me. Also, if you're ascribing dimochka's death to my paranoia, then you have to either (a) assume there's only one Lone Wolf (Snark), and that someone has targeted me and then died every game day since then, or (b) account for two missing kills on D1 (only weiyaoli's death is unattributed with two LW's and the WWs out there) and then work out how there have been exactly two unattributable deaths every day since then. Of course (b) works if either of the factional kills on D1 clashed with another kill target, and no-one since then has targeted me with anything (or there's been a clash of kills every time someone has targeted me), but that feels about as implausible as (a).

SirGabriel wrote:ConMan definitely looks to me like the scummiest player left alive. He's probably lone wolf, although I can't rule out the possibility of werewolf. The only reason I'm not voting him is there are only 5 players and scum could easily cause a mislynch if I happen to be wrong.

Good. I know I'm talking about dropping a vote, but that is literally because between two hours from now and two weeks from now I'm not 100% sure when I will next log in to the forums, and in many of the scenarios I can see we are in LyLo, or a very close approximation. If I don't put a vote down soon, then I'm effectively voting for no lynch, and that is almost *certainly* not in town's interests whatsoever. Of course I want to hear from everyone else first, and if they can chime in now then I would be ever so grateful. I will hold out to the last to put my vote down, but it will be going down one way or the other.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby ConMan » Fri Dec 18, 2015 4:35 am UTC

Also, while I disagree with SirGabriel's analysis (clearly), I completely understand where he's coming from. This game is *tense*, knowing that we are essentially at LyLo despite everything that's happened. The initial set-up was, as far as I can tell, 11-13 town, 6-8 werewolves, 2 lone wolves, 3 aliens and 2-4 third parties. So in the best of all worlds town started with 13/26 players, i.e. exactly half. This has never been town's race to win, but against the odds it looks like we have a chance.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby ConMan » Fri Dec 18, 2015 6:35 am UTC

Arg. I hate this, but I really do have to go and don't know when I'll be back. I should have known that a game this big, starting after Halloween, was likely to run this long, but my own plans have changed in the meantime too (we weren't going to be heading out of town so early, for a start). Based on all of my analysis earlier, I really do have to suspect Suzaku of being a likely scum.

Vote Suzaku

I think I will have one more chance to check the thread this evening, at which point I'll presumably formalise that vote unless I see some jaw-dropping evidence to the contrary. In any case, I reckon you should take a look at him and decide for yourself, and if you think I'm wrong then you probably think I'm scum, in which case you should obviously lynch me instead - but just make sure you really want to do that! ;)
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Znirk » Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:31 am UTC

Jimbob's vote-block on Roadierich looks mechanically significant:

Assume RR is a werewolf. His kill could have brought the population down to 4, and if Suzaku's not a teammate, eliminated him for total wolf control of the night-kill (Afterthought: Forgot about the probable lone wolf at first.) If there were 2 werewolves remaining, that would have given them the win (vote to at least block a werewolf lynch, then wolf-kill someone to get majority if still necessary; and if possible, use RR's night-kill to become the only game in town outright). That would not be a sure bet because kill target overlaps could still have left 5 survivors, but it looks to me like an acceptable risk. (Afterthought: With a lone wolf running around, there's also what I make to be a 4/15 chance of [the extra N4 kill not hitting the lone wolf AND wolves not killing the lone wolf in N5 AND lone wolf killing a wolf in N5], which leads to a draw on the following night when the lone wolf and the now-lone remaining werewolf kill each other. Still:)

Likely conclusion: Either RR is not a werewolf, or he's the only one remaining and Jimbob fake-attacked him to deflect suspicion. But if Jimbob knew there was just one werewolf remaining after his exit, then a killblock would probably have looked desirable no matter who the one remaining werewolf is. In contradiction to my vague read from yesterday, I'm now tending towards "probably not werewolf" on Roadierich (though he might still be our loner), and a small bias towards "only one werewolf (apart from one lone wolf) remaining".

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Suzaku » Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:24 pm UTC

OK, some responses and t\some thoughts.

First, I didn't submit a kill last night. Apart from being nursed, I also thought I would have time to make a post/kill this morning, but day-end kiboshed that.

Second, I still really have no idea what's going on, despite having read every word that's been posted in the thread.

My gut is saying that ConMan is town, and that Znirk and SirG are not, but I have absolutely nothing to back that up with. The only close-to-correct read I've had all game was Van, and I didn't have the courage of my conviction to do/say anything about that except OMGUS for the nursifying.

As far as I can see, there are no possible teams of scum left, so we can conclude that the SirG - ConMan opposition is genuine (as opposed to planned in chat to split town).
I'd come down on the ConMan side of that split, although that does leave me in a somewhat awkward position, as he clearly thinks I'm scum.

I need to read over at least D4 and D5 again, and hopefully something will stick in the brain this time 'round.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Dec 18, 2015 5:30 pm UTC

Then we definitely have a lone wolf. I suspect today will be the last day, because it's theoretically possible for everyone to die by the end of the night.

What happens if all living players are killed during the night?

What happens if, in the morning, there are only two players alive, from different factions, each with a kill power?

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Misnomer » Fri Dec 18, 2015 6:11 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:Then we definitely have a lone wolf. I suspect today will be the last day, because it's theoretically possible for everyone to die by the end of the night.

What happens if all living players are killed during the night?

What happens if, in the morning, there are only two players alive, from different factions, each with a kill power?

If every player in the game is dead at game end, then it results in a Lone Wolf victory.

If in the scenario you describe there was any doubt about the overall outcome, there would be a swift day phase which would (presumably) end early after the lynch vote becomes deadlocked, followed by a processing of night actions. If there could be no doubt whatsoever about the eventual outcome, I'd end the game immediately.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Dec 18, 2015 6:57 pm UTC

Misnomer wrote:If every player in the game is dead at game end, then it results in a Lone Wolf victory.

Okay, that makes things interesting.

For the sake of argument, let's assume that there are currently one werewolf, one lone wolf, and three townie (this is the best case scenario; feel free to rerun this with a second werewolf and/or a traitor), and that at least two people will die between the lynch today and the kills tonight (guaranteed unless either a wolf withholds their kill or both wolves have the same target).
Possible outcomes at the end of today:
  • 0 players are alive (lone wolves win)
  • 1 player is alive (that player's team wins)
  • 1 townie and 1 lone wolf are alive (lone wolf wins)
  • town!Suzaku and 1 werewolf are alive (outcome uncertain - maybe they can flip a coin to decide who wins? Neither of them wants to just kill each other and hand the win to the lone wolves)
  • 1 townie (not Suzaku) and 1 werewolf are alive (werewolves win)
  • 1 lone wolf and 1 werewolf are alive (lone wolf wins)
  • 2 or 3 townies and 0 wolves are alive (town wins)
  • town!Suzaku, 1 lone wolf, and 1 werewolf are alive (best for town and werewolf to lynch the lone wolf, so as long as Suzaku can determine which is which, we're back to the town!Suzaku+werewolf case)
  • town!RoadieRich, 1 lone wolf, and 1 werewolf are alive (if RoadieRich agrees to vote for whoever voteblocks him, then it's pretty much the same as the town!Suzaku + werewolf + lone wolf case).
Not sure at the moment exactly how to apply this information, but it can't hurt to get it out there.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Dec 18, 2015 7:00 pm UTC

EBWOP: I left off the last possibility:
  • 1 townie (not Suzaku or RoadieRich), 1 werewolf, and 1 lone wolf are alive (town loses)

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Dec 18, 2015 7:22 pm UTC

EBWOP: I left off another possibility
  • 2 townies and 1 wolf are alive (town can win if they lynch the scum tomorrow)

I'm pretty sure that's everything.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Dec 18, 2015 7:43 pm UTC

Okay, looking over the list, I think town's best chance is to not withhold any kills. So, unless someone is convinced that RoadieRich and/or Suzaku are scum, that means we lynch either myself, Znirk, or ConMan (I would prefer ConMan) and we don't voteblock RoadieRich, and then we let the nightkills fly and hope one of the townies remains standing. There is the risk that everybody dies, but that would require us mislynching and everyone choosing different kill targets, which seems unlikely.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Dec 18, 2015 7:56 pm UTC

Alternative strategies:
  • Voteblock RoadieRich, ask Suzaku to withhold her kill, and hope at least one of the wolves kills the other. This should result in either 2 town, 1 wolf or 3 town, 0 wolves tomorrow. But the werewolf might decide to aim for town (with jimbob's real results, he probably knows who the lone wolf is), and the lone wolf knows no more than we do about who the werewolf is even if he wants to aim for the werewolf. Plus this relies on Suzaku being town.
  • Voteblock RoadieRich, ask Suzaku to withhold her kill, and lynch suspected scum. If we lynch correctly, this should also get us to 2 town, 1 wolf. But again, this plan relies on Suzaku being town (unless, of course, Suzaku is the lynch target-so this is probably the best plan if we think Suzaku is scum).

Any other plan seems too likely to get us to a 1 town, 1 wolf situation, which would not be good.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Znirk » Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:20 pm UTC

OK: Gabriel's kill-analysis (madge kills while she dies, werewolves, one lone wolf) looks reasonable to me. I'm also increasingly inclined towards believing fervently hoping that Team Werewolf is down to one member.

Suzaku says he didn't target last night, mainly because he didn't get the opportunity he thought he'd have. Though this may be a lie (maybe he did target but went for someone who died anyway, or maybe he submitted a target but it turns out he didn't get his ability back until after nightkills), I'm going to tentatively believe him, and award some townie points since either flavour of wolf would have had good reason to try to get in an extra kill (and also the means to kill Van by faction ability so as to reenable Suzaku's kill).

As explained in my first post from today, I don't think Roadierich is the team-wolf, but might be the lone wolf.

And I myself am, of course, bog-standard-issue Townie. Trusssst in meeeeeee ...

If I'm guessing correctly so far, then the remaining team-wolf is either Gabriel or Conman, and the lone wolf is one of those two or Roadierich. ... Which is frankly a result that surprises me a bit based on my impressions so far; but then, I guess any wolves still alive at this point must be doing something right.

Since it's past midnight around here, I won't get around right now to seriously checking this idea against my suspects' behaviour. Back in 12 hours or so. I also intend to recheck the kill assumptions against the deaths and claims from earlier nights (particularly: is it logically possible that there's no lone wolf left, and Suzaku did kill last night? Also, who is a legitimate Suzaku target? Did everybody who is alive now or died last night vote him at some point?)

Or before I bother with that last bit: Misnomer said that we'll be told when either anti-town faction is eliminated, but I think for lone wolves this is still undefined.

Mod question: Is there an announcement when all lone wolves are eliminated?

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Misnomer » Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:25 pm UTC

Only the werewolf team and the aliens team will be the subject of elimination announcements.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Suzaku » Sat Dec 19, 2015 12:39 am UTC

Quickhit:

Is it possible for two werewolves to be alive? I didn't think it was.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby ConMan » Sat Dec 19, 2015 9:02 am UTC

I'm back, briefly, and posting by phone, so that's fun.

From the sounds of it, no third parties are left except maybe a second traitor. If there are two werewolves, there would almost certainly have to be two town and I think it would be almost certain that town was Suzaku and RR - ie would control the kills. I'm definitely leaning towards three town at this point.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Znirk » Sat Dec 19, 2015 11:26 am UTC

First of all, correcting myself from yesterday: Assuming that night-kills happen simultaneously, then I think it's likely that Suzaku's and my abilities were not available last night even though Van was killed. (Flavour actually suggests that The Unnursening didn't happen until dawn - don't know how significant that is though.) If that's correct, then whether or not Suzaku tried to kill anyone becomes irrelevant, and so does claim that he never submitted in a target.

It also means that yes, there is one kill unaccounted for after the wolf kill and Madge's last gasp. We do have a lone wolf.

Next up: Harry Potter and the Benefit of Hindsight, wherein I reread the surviving players with particular attention on their interactions with people we now know to have been werewolves.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Dec 19, 2015 11:58 am UTC

Znirk wrote:Next up: Harry Potter and the Benefit of Hindsight, wherein I reread the surviving players with particular attention on their interactions with people we now know to have been werewolves.

Good idea, maybe I'll try that later today too.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Znirk » Sat Dec 19, 2015 12:46 pm UTC

Gah, this is WORK!

Anyhow:
ConMan wrote:I'm back, briefly, and posting by phone, so that's fun.

From the sounds of it, no third parties are left except maybe a second traitor. If there are two werewolves, there would almost certainly have to be two town and I think it would be almost certain that town was Suzaku and RR - ie would control the kills. I'm definitely leaning towards three town at this point.

Is that the phone talking, or are you saying that you are not entirely certain that you yourself are town?

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Dec 19, 2015 3:00 pm UTC

Analysis of interactions with known werewolves:

Znirk:
Day 1:
Mod questions about vegetarianization and werewolf kills. (Not sure this really tells us anything about whether he's a werewolf or not.)
Mod question about whether Opus's ability would be useful on D6 to find out if the aliens were all dead.
Votes Opus, after several others have found Opus scummy.
Responds to Vytron's comments on Snark's meta.
Day 2:
Disagrees with jimbob about how third-party win conditions work.
Wants an investigation result on jimbob because he thinks there were actually 0 scum on Opus's wagon.
Day 3:
Accuses jimbob of being lying scum, probably alien. Repeats this several times throughout the day.

Suzaku:
Day 1:
Points out to Vytron that lovers can't be scum.
Chosen by frogman/Echo as investigation target.
Day 2:
Killed no one.
Concerned that Sungura rejects the possibility of Echo and Suzaku both being town.
Day 3:
Killed a townie (patzer).
Interesting that 2 people voted against Echo both days. Claims to have assumed the werewolf committee members were the dissenting votes D1.
Echo is confirmed scum if Suzaku flips scum but not vice versa.
Lynching DJ guarantees that Echo can investigate jimbob.
Day 4:
Killed a townie (mpolo).
Day 5:
Killed no one.

ConMan:
Day 3:
Analyzes implications of jimbob's results. Gets implications wrong the first time.
Analyzes first few days searching for links between living players and confirmed werewolves/aliens. Doesn't point to any of the living-at-the-time-but-now-confirmed-werewolves as scummy.
Suggests Echo research Yoloswag
Lists jimbob as suspicious, but not as suspicious as others find him; lists Echo and Suzaku as suspicious, but only if one of them flips scum; votes mpolo instead of jimbob or Echo
Day 4:
Echo's reveal makes Suzaku either town or wolf, jimbob is now confirmed scum
Suggests that we should consider jimbob's offer, but ultimately decides it's better to kill him.
Wants to vote between Van, Znirk, and jimbob.
Day 5:
Says that if there are only 2 town left, it must be Suzaku and RoadieRich. (Sounds like a clear scumslip to me, I don't see how a townie would make that mistake).

RoadieRich:
Day 2:
crucialityfactor could be alien.
Opus may have been protecting patzer.
crucialityfactor was the third vote on the wagon on a townie (patzer).
Day 3:
Need to look into jimbob, as well as znirk/Van/mpolo.
Claimed to have killed Sungura, even though everyone thought he killed crucialityfactor.
Mod question about how third parties appear to jimbob's investigation.
Day 4:
jimbob voteblocks him in the same post as the hammer vote on Yoloswag.


Conclusions:
RoadieRich is probably not werewolf.
Suzaku never nightkilled a werewolf (or any other scum, for that matter).
Znirk and Suzaku did not have much interaction with any of the confirmed werewolves.
Unless I missed something, ConMan never even mentioned any of the players who are now confirmed werewolves until day 3, at which time he does claim Echo and jimbob are suspicious, but he seems to downplay those suspicions and votes for someone else. This is not looking good for ConMan, especially with that latest scumslip.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Znirk » Sun Dec 20, 2015 1:38 am UTC

Welp. As is usual with many projects, this took longer than expected and ended up going in a different direction than promised. Looking at interactions with scum makes little sense when half your targets have very few posts.

So, instead, the results of a general reread:

(All four other surviving players have voted for Suzaku, so he can kill anyone at this point.)

CONMAN:
- Elmo the Eagle targets Conman, is killed (N1, unclaimed). Conman suspects "scum did it".
- Repeatedly fishes for being turned into a doctor D1 and D2. This is in the context of much speculation and even voting for him based on his secret role. Possibly lone wolf seeing his secret role as unhelpful/attracting too much attention, trying to become a more valuable-to-town doc?
- Strange statement about "a small clue that Van is less likely to be scum than, say, Djehutynakht". Later retracted.
- FoS Jimbob D3.
- Asks for my just-in-case karateka target.

GABRIEL:
- considers druid-lynching wasteful, votes Snark.
- Sungura says it would be "hilarious" if mod chose to make Gabriel scum to go with his role (among other speculation about fitting alignments for certain roles). Gabriel responds with the correction that alignments are random without finishing reading Sungura's whole post. Scum overreaction?
- Early voter against Opus on day 1, but explains this as trying to make Opus use his dive. Later changes vote to break 2nd place tie in case of diving. Looks like someone who does not have team communication with Opus.
- D2: speaks out against lynching Freezeblade because of useful ability, proposes turning FB into a mindless tool. Asks for investigation on the already highly suspect FB: perhaps proposed as a distraction/waste of investigation?
- D4: suggests not lynching Jimbob, aliens have priority. Later agrees with Madge night-killing him.

SUZAKU:
- Frogman/Echo's investigation says Town. Might be wolf (like Frog/echo), but this is from Day 1, when wolves could very plausibly have investigated lots of other people, and wolves had good reason to check for aliens and lone wolves. The idea could have been: Saying Werewolf:Suzaku is town puts pressure on aliens for making themselves killable. The downside being that town_suzaku might be a target for lonewolves and kill-roled aliens, which would quickly expose Frog/Echo.
- Suggests additional investigation to confirm frogman's result. We know Albert and Darryl were town, so it's not like investigation was firmly in werewolf hands. If you're sold on werewolf:suzaku, that might have been a plot to absorb investigations, sacrifice suzaku, and establish Frog/Echo as trustworthy; but then Frog would have had to claim suzaku was wolf. Which they didn't.
- Killed the lovers for reasons that were neither great nor terrible.
- Generally few posts. The lack of voting, which conman picked up on, seems less dramatic in that context.

ROADIERICH:
- off to a good start with his first post, suspecting Lawrence and Sungura who (later in the game) become two of the towniest reads in town :)
- supports research on himself (or pretends to). Proposal ends up blocked 2:1 votes, with the jester claiming one of the two NOs. The other two voters were HBC (alien) and, according to his uncontested claim, Roadierich himself. I can totally see the alien not wanting research happening, so I'll tentatively buy RR's claimed yes vote.
- admits to killing Sungura. Would be damning if we had any aliens left; but either flavour of wolf wanting to off Sungura would have done it through their faction kill, and used the role kill on someone who would raise less controversy. (Unless that's what he WANTED us to think!!! But that argument gets us nowhere.)

Sooo: I'm thinking (though perhaps a bit wishfully) that neither Suzaku nor Roadierich are wolves. That suggests (to me, with my privileged knowledge about my own alignment) that Conman and Gabriel must be a werewolf and a lone wolf respectively.

Suzaku, Roadierich, what do you think of each other (and of me)? Conman, Gabriel, counterarguments?

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Znirk » Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:56 am UTC

...anyone? anyone?

Looking back over my last post, I'm still pretty convinced by my arguments. In summary, they are:

- Roadierich:anykindofwolf would have (a share in) two kills that are safe to admit to, which leaves no discernible reason why he would have claimed killing Sungura. Therefore Roadierich is neither kind of wolf.

- Frogman (known werewolf) investigating a teammate and lying about the result, and on N1 to boot, sounds off-key. Wolves already know each other, and gathering information on possible aliens or lone wolves a) helps them directly, and b) might be translated into a little townie credit for Frogman. And perhaps more importantly, the one thing they don't want to do is to establish obvious links between wolves. Therefore Suzaku (who, by the way, himself suggested an investigate-the-investigator scheme wherein a second cop role would check on him at the same time as Frogman) is not a werewolf.

- Frogman investigating a lone wolf and then lying about it makes no sense. Lone:suzaku would essentially have lost at that point (wolves would presumably remember to kill him before the end), so he might as well drop the wolves in it and come clean. Wolves have nothing to gain from this, they're better off revealing the lone wolf and letting town take care of him. Therefore Suzaku is not a lone wolf.

- I have no real strong arguments against Conman and Sir Gabriel. I think they're our doggies, but it's by process of elimination (I'm reasonably sure that RR and Suz aren't, and I don't see anything particularly townish about Con and SG to draw that back into question).


We have five people and five kills, so unless we eliminate one of the kills via lynch (or by voting RR; but he's no wolf), then there's a risk of posthumous lone-wolf victory by way of everybody dying. (Incidentally, in terms of flavour that ruling suggests that the Mayor is a lone wolf :) )

If I'm right about Conman and Gabriel, my suggestion is to lynch one of them and have the non-vote-blockable Suzaku kill the other. Roadierich, whom I promise not to block, can withhold or kill whomever out of myself and Suzaku he trusts less (being town, I don't need to be present to win). The remaining wolf then takes one of us down with him as he dies. 1-2 surviving players, all wolves eliminated, town wins.

If I'm not right about both of those two ... that's definitely bad; but at this point, what error isn't? Lynching a non-wolf means four living, four kills, and presumably a werewolf who knows more than town by way of Jimbob. He'd be trying to kill the lone wolf and survive, while the loner would try to hit the werewolf or make sure everybody ends up dead. If we do lynch the wolf out of Conman and Gabriel (still in the scenario where only one of them is scum), then RR decides the game: if he's non-wolf, and takes the right shot between the other suspects (Suzaku and myself), then town wins. If he kills wrong, or is the remaining wolf himself, we lose.

And, for completness, if both Con and Gabriel are non-scum, my plan means we're screwed. I really don't think that's the case though.

Finally, a quick look at factions:

Masons and lovers are known dead. The only townies remaining are standard.

Aliens are gone. Werewolves and lone wolves, we're guessing there's one each left. (If we have two werewolves and one lone, I guess we're pretty much screwed anyway.)

Druids: Seem unlikely, but they have still have a shot at both getting night-killed.

Jester: if there is another, he's essentially lost at this point.

Sib survivors: Statistically unlikely, or we should have seen one of them dead by now.

Traitor: Slight concern, particularly since as far as you know, I might be one, and I'm doing all the talking at the moment. But I'd still not know who scum are; so look at my arguments and decide for yourselves, I guess.

Anyway, to "nail my trousers to the mast" (I've been reading Yes Minister) and get the ball rolling:

vote ConMan

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Suzaku
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Suzaku » Mon Dec 21, 2015 12:51 pm UTC

I can't fault your logic there, Znirk. Although that may be because it's getting late and I'm tired :)

If we have two werewolves then the hammer and tongs fight between ConMan and SirG makes me think they're them. Which ever one we lynch, the other comes out smelling of roses, and rides the tide of town cred to the win.

That said, it's much more likely that we only have one wolf and one loner.

If I had to pick between SirG and CM, I'd (as I said before) lynch SirG. I still don't have any solid evidence for that feeling, however.

I should have some time before the deadline in Secret Santa to reread a bit, so I'll endeavour to be back with something a little more meaningful in a few hours.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D5: E is for Elimination

Postby Znirk » Mon Dec 21, 2015 1:16 pm UTC

Quickly, to Suzaku: Between Conman and Gabriel I don't have a preference on which one gets lynched. If you vote Gabriel, I'm happy to change my vote. I am however saying they should both die tonight.


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