2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - Game Over

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Lawrencelot
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Lawrencelot » Sun Jan 10, 2016 3:24 pm UTC

To add to the list of claims: I will claim that I have no information that is useful for town, and haven't gained any since the start of the game. If people want to know more about my role feel free to ask, but of course I will only answer if I think it helps town.

@jimbob: yea that makes sense. I forgot what happened next: did Snark answer, and were you satisfied with the answer? How do you feel about Snark atm?

I'm inclined to trust mpolo, as I said earlier. It's possible that he's scum with Emlightened but for now I'll assume that's not the case. So we should probably look for scum outside mpolo and Emlightened.

Right now bessie and Echo feel more scummy to me than jimbob and Snark, but that's mainly because the latter two have more content over the course of the whole game. I don't really trust them either though. If I can find the time, I will probably look at these four players in detail and see if I can find any links, also with Madge.

SirGabriel should really lead the lynch but we should all help him reach a decision.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Snark » Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:39 pm UTC

Why me SirGab? Do you think I bussed hard D1 or am non-mafia scum?
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jan 10, 2016 5:41 pm UTC

In response to bessie's post:
bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:A few thoughts why scum might not have pushed for moody more towards day end (any or all of these could be true):
1) moody is scum as well. This would of course mean that scum would almost certainly end up on one of those two wagons.
2) scum have some kind of voting restrictions.
3) scum are fractured between multiple factions.
4) scum were happy with how the votes were approaching the original deadline but got caught out by the fairly quick swing in voting to Madge.
Of course, the bussing option as noted by Minestrone is also a fairly good possibility, but I can't believe that they decided this from the outset and more likely they pushed it later on, therefore I give significant town points to Snark for voting Madge first.

You give town points to Snark for being first on the Madge wagon. Why when scum!Snark could be possible in all four of your above points and you also state that Minestrone’s bussing option is possible? You also seem quick to want to assign townie points.
You're right, that probably wasn't so well thought out by me. However, at the time, I felt the most likely case was simply number 1). Obviously, I was wrong on that. With moody's flip, I could see it being a possibility that Snark decided to bus Madge from the start, and was willing to let her die to try and gather large numbers of townie points. I'll be re-evaluating my opinion of him and all other living players later on today.

bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Regarding mpolo and his claim, I'm inclined to believe it for now, but would suggest that he might be a good investigation target for someone, so we can find out whether we can trust his claims. Of course, he'll be high on the scum hit list, I imagine at this point, since a watcher is a good way of finding scum or confirming investigations.

I don’t necessarily agree that mpolo is a night kill target just because he claimed a watcher power. A watcher can be dangerous to scum, but my guess is that every role is a power role, and may be dangerous to scum too. Are you trying to discourage claiming?
Nope, more discouraging claiming without solid results. I guess I was mistaken, but it was my belief that scum would try to target known investigative powers to make it harder for town to find them. Based on what people have claimed so far I doubt that there are all that many investigators out there. If there are, please do claim once you have something useful to share with us.

bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:My night result says that only two kills were attempted last night. I'm presuming therefore that the scum team killed Minestrone and Minestrone killed Sabrar. However, Minestrone also claimed in chat that he was planning on recruiting Sabrar last night. I can't see a good reason for him to both recruit and kill the same player. He might have lied about who he was going to recruit, but I don't see why. Or, I guess he could have been redirected by moody or someone else.
Question for jimbobmacdoodle: Did Minestrone know your power?
No I never told him what my power was, beyond that it was roleblocked by his ability, and that I don't feel that it is particularly powerful. I guess what you're trying to figure out is whether Minestrone would have withheld his kill last night, and my belief is that he wouldn't have done because of knowing my ability (he might have done for other reasons, but I don't believe so).

More comments and responses on other people's posts to follow. Just realised that I was viewing an older version of this page and need to catch up on what people have said.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:08 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote:@jimbob: yea that makes sense. I forgot what happened next: did Snark answer, and were you satisfied with the answer? How do you feel about Snark atm?
In his post here Snark responded to me essentially agreeing that my belief was the more likely one. The way he said it (essentially berating me for asking something stupid before realising his own mistake) didn't seem made up to me. That made me feel good about him, since scum team with poisoner would have known that it was a player ability, and I can't believe that they'd have left the post in the state that it was (see the linked post to see what I mean).

As for how I feel now, I was feeling him to be pretty townie overall earlier, and nothing has struck me as being obviously anti-town about him since, but as noted with my comment to bessie, I'll be doing a more detailed analysis of the surviving players later on this evening.

Regarding the mpolo town result on emlightened, here are the possible cases that I can think of, together with my belief of each's likelihood, ignoring scumminess of the two players for now:
1) scum!mpolo, scum!emlightened - would definitely be a reasonable claim to make if we are at LYLO (i.e. 3 scum, 4 town). If we went down the route of ignoring the pair of them, because we trust mpolo, we'd have to find the third scum member or lose. Also a possible but riskier claim if they are the only remaining scum, since if we discover the identity of one or other, the other will be under significant suspicion.
2) scum!mpolo, town!emlightened - perfectly reasonable case, although I think scum!mpolo would have more likely picked a different target since some of us were suspicious of emlightened rather than "confirming" a suspicious player as town (and thus reduce the chances of a mislynch).
3) town!mpolo, town!emlightened - also perfectly reasonable. As noted by myself and others, emlightened seemed like a good target.
4) town!mpolo, scum!emlightened - only possible if either mpolo has some very weird posting restriction preventing them giving a true result, or if emlightened is a godfather or similar role. I don't know that there isn't such a role, but I reckon that people would have submitted more interesting roles (of course, this could be a non-standard godfather - godfather unless they use an ability or something).
5) indie!mpolo or indie!emlightened - possible, but I doubt it. As previously stated, I think the most likely case is that we have/had town, mafia, and SK. I could possibly see a survivor role existing, but I again doubt it given what mpolo said about how he'd receive his result (is a survivor pro or anti town?).

I'll base my judgement on the likeliest result once I've looked at everybody later on.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:45 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
Snark wrote:I'm really not sure of what to do from here. SirGab is confirmed town, right? Wanna lead the lynch?

Yes, I am confirmed town. No, I don't really want to lead the lynch, but if I did it would either be for Echo (not because of anything Echo said or did, but because of how freezeblade played) or Snark.

Echo, did you have nothing to report because freezeblade never bothered submitting his night action or because he had no night action to submit?


He never submitted a night action. Possibly deliberately rather than through inaction. I'm not sure what to do with the power myself. More information if you want it.

I... don't have Snark as near the top of my scum-list. His public discussion of his investigation results, which were full of confusing stuff, seemed towny. Also, not on the Madgewagon, which I count as more solid. I'm looking more at Lawrencelot and patzer Dje bessie, who weren't voting for Madge. Then again, neither was freezeblade I.

I still think the continual mafia use of the night kill means there's one scum among the active players - mpolo, jimbob and Snark. But I don't know who. I'm trusting mpolo's result. Snark's reading towny. Jimbob's actions D1 regarding Madge were towny. All three, if scum, would have been bussing her when they could have joined a bunch of townies on the moody wagon and saved a teammate for another day. So... I dunno.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:50 pm UTC

Echo244 wrote:I still think the continual mafia use of the night kill means there's one scum among the active players - mpolo, jimbob and Snark.

Not necessarily. It requires much less effort for scum to submit a nightkill than to post something with decent towny-looking content.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby mpolo » Sun Jan 10, 2016 8:12 pm UTC

Sorry, the site was acting up for me, and it's too late to really post now. I will be back tomorrow.

I'm not sure what I think about the whole situation. I guess I have to go with emlightened being town for now. I have a small fear that she is a godfather, though.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Sun Jan 10, 2016 8:21 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
Echo244 wrote:I still think the continual mafia use of the night kill means there's one scum among the active players - mpolo, jimbob and Snark.

Not necessarily. It requires much less effort for scum to submit a nightkill than to post something with decent towny-looking content.


True, but if you're going to read the thread enough to pick a decent target, you can at least post something, make some sort of effort to avoid a modprod.

Ninja'd, yeah, I know what you mean, mpolo. I think poking through the lurkers/replacements is more likely to find a mafia, but I still think one of the more active players is mafia.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 10, 2016 8:38 pm UTC

I admit I feel the same as Snark in that I don’t know where to go from here. I’m not a great scum hunter. I’m not a player that can just pick out scummy behavior. I’m the type that analyzes information to look for inconsistencies and scum tells. And there have been very few investigations in this game, and none of the results contradict each other or publicly revealed information (except the redirector power, which was claimed).

I know this is very late in the game for setup discussion, but I haven't done any yet. My guess is 2-4 non-town roles remaining, including at least two mafia because a mafia team of two seems too small for this game. So either two mafia and one anti-town role (like a second serial killer) or 2-3 mafia and one independent that can win with town (like a survivor)? Or maybe just 2-3 mafia?

Here’s some player analysis. This list is incomplete because I’m going out for a few hours but I want to post as much as I have. I will get to everyone else tonight.

freezeblade/Echo244 – I already did some analysis of freezeblade in a previous post. My read on freezeblade was non-town, for reasons I outlined in that post. His statements about not liking D1 are consistent with his meta, but his statement about being scum in his nine previous games contradict the facts. As I said before, I think he was trying to implement in everyone’s minds the statistical unlikelihood of being scum ten games in a row. No D2 content. D3 Echo has posted a reasonable amount of content (considering she replaced). Her posts give opinions, but feel rather “safe” to me. There are some reads but with no evidence to support those reads. Focuses on emlightened, mostly for her D1 vote on moody. Echo, do you have any scum reads on emlightened other than her vote, or any reads linking her to Madge? Do you have reads on any other players? If I had to vote now I would probably vote for Echo, based on freezeblade’s content and because Echo’s posts are more neutral than townie. Hopefully she will have time to post some reads before deadline.

emlightened – I’ve looked over the D1 voting pattern because there has been discussion about emlightened's vote for moody, but I’m just seeing it as she wanted to end the day with a vote on the person she considered the most scummy. I’m probably not reading it the same way as everyone else because I was not part of the voting and I don’t have a feel for the pacing that happened with the voting and extensions. Not much stands out to me in emlightened’s posts until she starts focusing on mpolo as a possible serial killer on D2 (it looks like this was originally suggested by SirGabriel). She barely mentioned mpolo on D1. Her most substantial D3 post here focuses entirely on mpolo. I read her as neutral, only slightly leaning town before mpolo’s cop result, mostly for tunneling on one player. emlightened, can we have some reads on other players?

Snark – Snark generated some discussion early because of his groupings, but the discussion was because he made the groupings, not because of the groupings themselves or the accompanying content. I would like to FoS everyone that dismissed the “grouping” posts as empty content, because there was also analysis in these posts which was overlooked among the complaints. I said a little about Snark in an earlier post, and his quick assigning of townie points to Madge voters. Snark still needs to reply to my question in that post as to if/when he planned on sharing his investigation results. His N2 results verified publicly available information about a conveniently dead third-party player, so I’m not sure what to think about that. My read of Snark is moving toward the scummy side of my scale as the game progresses.

Ninja’d by Echo (and jimbob, SirGabriel, mpolo) while I was typing this out. I’m still posting my analysis of Echo based on her earlier content and will re-evaluate as necessary.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby emlightened » Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:30 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:As to my stance on Day 1, I was pretty early focussed on Madge and only did a vote change when it looked like the day was going to close. I then went right back to Madge. I'm not quite seeing where I was inconsistent, emlightened.

I thought that your switch to Misnomer was because you found him to be as scummy as Madge, but the rest of what you said implied that you found Madge scummier, which would be a contradiction. I'm guessing that the first part of that was what was wrong.


Lawrencelot: Short analysis, feels detached from game. Not much content until D3; slightly scummy until then. I feel a bit better about him on D3, but I think that's just the tone of the posts, nothing concrete. Active lurking, possibly. Slightly scummy until we get more from him.

freezeblade/Echo244:
As freezeblade: Pings town!Misnomer very quickly for saying that 'town has nothing to hide'; clear overreaction. Expects many indies (is an indie?); creates possible role list with comments (quite accurate, also draws attention to non-sane cops). Draws attention to 'last nine games I was scum'; bessie sums up that quite nicely. Overall rather contentless, slightly scummy to me at that point.
As Echo: Some analysis, thinks we should vote anyone but Snark/mpolo. Reluctant for day-cop on me, surprised I'm town. Some analysis, rather short. Objective to self being town/scum, but lumps all lurkers in the same bucket (somewhat validly). Neutral, leaning scummy because of freeze.

patzer/bessie:
As patzer: Only one post, then had to quit for reading a spoiler. Reads misnomer as 3rd party.
As bessie: IRL problems, still posts a lot. Quotes things that stand out, makes valid points in analyses. Helpful post on roles/claims, some more analysis. Feels pretty townie.

Don't understand this comment:
bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm still trying to figure out the best strategy for helping me tune my scumdar, especially given that this is my first town game.

Hmm. :roll:
Bessie, could you explain what you mean here?


I sort-of want to encourage voting, considering Suzaku intended on setting the deadline at something near 3AM UTC (~3h30m), and hence we've probably only got 1 irl day left once he sets the actual deadline.

Will post on jimbobmacdoodle, Snark and mpolo soon, and maybe vote.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:37 pm UTC

Ok, analysis post as promised. If I'm not mistaken, there is maybe one more RL day left, so I will post who my preferred vote candidate is at the end, but won't vote until there's a general consensus on a course of action, what with possible LYLO. I'm going to focus mostly on the posts since my last major analysis post here. Spoilers include post summaries.

bessie:
Spoiler:
First content post starts off querying why I posted about SirG twice. freezeblade/Echo might be indie. Agrees with mpolo re. setup (4-5 scum, maybe 1-2 independents). Snark grouping might be because of investigative power. freezeblade anti-D1 consistent, but was inaccurate about being scum in last 9 games. Initial read on him is scum. Claims no night results. Asks if moody said who he redirected. Accepts that poisoning of moody could have been town. Challenges my willingness to hand out townie points. Queries Snark re. when he was going to share his results. Thinks that emlightened posted only because she was under suspicion. Explicitly discusses setup spec. Believes Echo's posts have been "safe" and reads missing evidence. Thinks emlightened's D1 vote was simply on her scummiest read. D2/D3 she says that emlightened is focusing mostly on mpolo as possible serial killer. She has Snark sliding towards scummy for his safe N2 results and not responding to her questions to him.
Her queries about my posts about SirG seem to have missed the context, since I'd have thought it was fairly obvious what I was trying to say and why I was saying it then. However, that might have just been as a result of how she went about her initial readthrough. Her question regarding whether moody had claimed his N1 redirections shows that she also didn't see the post where he did either. I'm not sure why she finds it odd for me to hand out townie points. She then suggests that I'm trying to discourage claiming, which again I'm not certain is how it reads, especially given the context of SirGabriel's post at that time. My impression here is that she is trying to find fault with me (as opposed to simply looking for scummy things about my play), but that might simply be because she is the perhaps the first to raise significant concerns about me. In particular I don't understand what is wrong with giving someone town credit for doing something. I'm leaning scum on her for this.

Echo:
Spoiler:
Concerned with being close to LYLO, and says votes should be cautious. Brief impressions post (me neutral, Snark and emlightened scummy, mpolo town). Doesn't think any scum bussed Madge late on, since they could have easily switched opinions. Looks at when I was around to switch voting D1, but seems to be happy with it. Confused results from Snark townie. emlightened is primary lynch candidate. Recommends Snark or mpolo for day cop power. Unsure about using day cop power on emlightened, suggests using it on a lurker/replacement. Trusts mpolo's result on emlightened. Feels me, Snark, mpolo town. Thinks one mafia amongst lurkers, and one amongst active posters. Claims freezeblade did not submit any night action. Thinks there must be scum amongst active posters due to mafia night kills. Discusses this.
I don't have any particularly strong feelings here. If anything by this point, that makes me slightly concerned, since I'd have thought I'd have developed some sort of gut feeling by now. Her suspicions on emlightened lightly mirror mine during the majority of D2, which is good at least. Her fixation on a mafia having to be active makes me think one of two things: either she is town, or she knows that all mafia are amongst the lurkers (i.e. she is one of them and partners with one or both of bessie and Lawrencelot). I'm leaning slightly towards her being town on this, but not by much.

Lawrencelot:
Spoiler:
First post with content following my previous post was a reaction to my poisoner might be town statement. Accuses Snark of not answering his question. Supports investigating emlightened. Claims no useful information for town. Queries me on how I feel about Snark. Trusts mpolo and therefore emlightened. bessie and Echo feel scummier than me or Snark, due to relative content levels. SirG should lead the lynch.
Like bessie, Lawrencelot seems to have completely missed the point of my query regarding why Snark the poisoner was anti-town, but he seems to accept my explanation. However, unlike her or Echo, he hasn't included much content since returning, apart from a brief set of opinions on most of the players, with pretty much no reasoning. In particular, he doesn't ever justify his main town read. Leaning scum for low content.

@Lawrencelot, why do you think mpolo is town?

Snark:
Spoiler:
Tries to figure out why his results aren't consistent with other information. Claimed got town result on SirGabriel, with incorrect name and that they targeted crucialityfactor. Voted moody during D2 for using redirection. Upset about having to claim. Maintains vote despite acknowledging moody poison. Claims from N2 Minestrone was serial killer and targeted Sabrar, which is backed up by publicly known information (but incorrect name again). Suggests SirG creates day cop power. Suggests SirG leads the lynch. Wonders why SirG finds him scummy.
I still find Snark townie from his behaviour. I stand by my belief that I don't think he bussed Madge hard D1. His willingness to claim to resolve his odd results seems good to me as well. There'd be no need for him to claim an investigative power D2 if he were scum, with such odd results, I reckon. Admittedly, some of that is wine, but I am willing to say Snark is town.

mpolo:
Spoiler:
Thought that claiming would be useful since he didn't expect to be alive much longer. Explains the downside of his power ("clumsy"). Likes all active posters except moody, due to his over-emphasizing of being poisoned. Votes him after emlightened seemed to improve her content. Unvotes after SirG's rather odd behaviour. Seems unsure of three way tie. Slightly odd claim that we get no voting information from a random lynch. Wants to prevent moody from using his night power, then revotes moody. Changes vote to SirG following his claim. D3 claims that he watched SirG and got that nobody visited him. Had wanted to change it to Minestrone. Wonders if moody redirected anyone. Gets a day cop and suggests emlightened as a target, but puts it up for discussion. Defends his voting record on Madge D1. Gets town result on emlightened. Slightly concerned that she could be a godfather.
Again nothing stands out to me much. I like that he waited for some discussion of his choice of target for the day cop. I also like think his previous actions are reasonable. On the other hand, he has very little in the way of opinions on different players for most of today. I have him as slight town, but sliding in the wrong direction for that.

@mpolo - could you post some opinions on the remaining players, and why you think what you do, please.

emlightened:
Spoiler:
Responds to my query regarding why she thought Madge was town. Discsusses whether doctor could cure moody. Doesn't think that moody is town, and that we should lynch him post N2 if he is still alive. Has mpolo, SirGabriel and moody as scummiest. Votes SirGabriel as better than a good chance of a mislynch on a lurker. Thinks that there might be another serial killer, and that mpolo might be it, due in part to his useless actions. Posts a case on mpolo being scum. Admits to looking scummy due to moody's flip. Thinks cop power would be best, but shouldn't be given to mpolo.

emlightened wrote:Claims that he watched the towniest person, despite voting for them earlier and not changing his preferences.
Spotted this post whilst reading through, and I think emlightened got this wrong - the link on the vote (which I haven't included here for ease of copying) links him to voting Misnomer, but if I am not mistaken, mpolo claimed to watch Crucialityfactor (who he saw as townie) and saw him kill Misnomer (presumably not seen particularly as townie, but I haven't gone back to check). Most of her case on mpolo I think falls apart because of this mistake. She's doing quite a bad tunnelling job here, possibly worse than mine on moody, but despite that, I can't see her as being scum, especially given mpolo's result. I think someone else may have asked her to do this already but:

@emlightened - same request as with mpolo, please post some opinions on the other players, with reasoning. <Ninja'ed - thanks, also don't forget that Suzaku said the weekend would be half time, so I think your deadline is incorrect.>

To sum up, here's a town to scum list based on this analysis:

Town
emlightened
Snark
mpolo
Echo
Lawrencelot
bessie
Scum

FoS bessie and Lawrencelot for being my only particularly scummy reads as detailed above.

I'd be willing to back a lynch of either bessie or Lawrencelot at this stage. If I get a chance before deadline, I'll try to look for any interactions between the two of them and with Madge.

Just in case deadline is intended to be sooner than I expect:
Could I request that there is at least 24 hours between now and the deadline, please, to ensure that nobody is taken by surprise.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:56 am UTC

More player analysis.

mpolo – N1 target/reasons consistent with his D1 reads, claimed quickly on D2. I can’t find any evidence that contradicts this claim, and some evidence that supports it (note that this depends on how Snark’s power functions, if he gets 2/3 correct a townie visited crucialityfactor, so Misnomer or mpolo). N2 watched a lynched player because he (conveniently?) made an error in updating his target. This is slightly suspicious. But SirGabriel trusted him enough to send him a day cop power, and his target choice had been discussed in thread (so not suspicious). He’s probably not a lynch target today.

SirGabriel – D1 good amount of content but light on actual analysis, so I would consider him a reasonable N1 investigation target (investigated by Snark). D2 reads are not all correct (moody, Minestrone). But I like his analysis in that he gives reasons for his reads, and since he is flavor-confirmed town we can trust his opinions.

Vytron/Lawrencelot – His activity has been low but looking at the actual content, what he posts is mostly solid with no fluff. Unfortunately he didn’t post on D2, but he wasn’t the only one (me me me). The only player he trusts right now is mpolo, I’m not really clear on his reasons.

jimbobmacdoodle – I already wrote a little about jimbob, to which he responded. I’ll start with my response to his response.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Her queries about my posts about SirG seem to have missed the context, since I'd have thought it was fairly obvious what I was trying to say and why I was saying it then. However, that might have just been as a result of how she went about her initial readthrough.

You are correct in that my queries about your SirG posts missed the context. When I replaced in the game there was almost eight pages of content, I concentrated my reading on the live players (and excluded SirGabriel) and only skimmed the dead players. I only did my first very thorough read through yesterday when I spent several hours making the list I posted here. I had seen that Misnomer asked the next player (SirGabriel) to post to rank a list of alignments, but missed where he asked the next player to subsequently post (jimbob) to guess the alignment of the previous poster based on the list, even though you quoted it. I still wonder why you made the second post and didn’t point out that most players are town, not just SirGabriel. It seemed like you want to register an early town read on SirGabriel with little evidence, in case there is a flip.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Her question regarding whether moody had claimed his N1 redirections shows that she also didn't see the post where he did either.

When I asked the moody question I was just looking for something to help me with my D2 readthrough, for time concerns. I had asked earlier for a list of night actions and claims, and received no response. It would have helped to have a list like the one I made when I started my read. And you’re not entirely correct when you say that moody claimed his N1 redirections. He only claimed to redirect Snark and a “couple other people” which included DJ. We can imply he targeted Sabrar from mod flavor. He was allowed up to four targets.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: My impression here is that she is trying to find fault with me (as opposed to simply looking for scummy things about my play), but that might simply be because she is the perhaps the first to raise significant concerns about me.

I am looking for fault/scum tells by looking for scummy things in your play, not instead of looking for scummy things in your play. What do you mean by fault that isn’t scummy? How are the things I pointed out faults but non-scummy faults?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:In particular I don't understand what is wrong with giving someone town credit for doing something. I'm leaning scum on her for this.

You gave town credit to Snark for voting for Madge in the same post where you give four reasons (and acknowledged a fifth) why scum would vote for Madge.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:You're right, that probably wasn't so well thought out by me. However, at the time, I felt the most likely case was simply number 1). Obviously, I was wrong on that. With moody's flip, I could see it being a possibility that Snark decided to bus Madge from the start, and was willing to let her die to try and gather large numbers of townie points.

Like from you. Also, I would like to comment on this:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Snark: I think I like Snark's playstyle overall. He voted for Madge first, and stuck with it, which I doubt scum!Snark would have done, given he could easily have switched to a different vote wagon had he wanted to, and probably caused a lynch in that direction, given the way the wagons evolved.

I wasn’t following the thread when this happened, but I don’t think it would have been very easy for Snark to switch to moody without arousing suspicion (but I would need to examine the timestamps more carefully to be sure).

I don’t disagree with you putting me first on your scum list, because your analysis is well thought out and you give some examples to support your reads. But I disagree with your reasons, which seem to be mostly because I’m the first to try to find fault or raise any concerns with your gameplay.

I need to leave this again for a while, but with deadline fast approaching I’m just going to keep posting content as I have it, even if I don’t cover everything.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:23 am UTC

Quick response, don't have time to do anything in details (work is going insane and I'm in cover-everything mode):

bessie wrote:Echo, do you have any scum reads on emlightened other than her vote, or any reads linking her to Madge? Do you have reads on any other players?


I've only had time to read through quickly and once, so the core of my analysis has been on actions rather than talk, and in particular the D1 vote, which I think count as more solid evidence (and easier to read evidence) than views. My memory of emlightened/Madge interactions is mostly of emlightened "really not seeing Madge as scummy", which... well, how I see it is irrelevant, as I'm buying in to the emlightend Town investigation result, but I'd expect a scum player to be hedging their bets there.

Reads on other players, from memory because I don't have time to cite evidence:

jimbob is posting lots of words that make it time-consuming to sift through. Lots of attention being thrown on others, not many strong stands, quite safe and conservative, but not contentless. Neutral, leaning town because of how I read his actions on D1, voting for Madge when bussing a scumbuddy from nowhere would have been a crazy option.

mpolo: much briefer posting style, sensible comments, on the Madge bandwagon D1, seems mostly trustworthy. I recommended him as one of the potential recipients of a day-cop-invention. If scum, doing it very well. Worth a closer look at some point based more on my active-player-being-mafia theory than anything he's done.

Snark: didn't like the initial randomly-assigned groups thing at all, but very much improved since then. The D2 discussion of his results, some of which seemed wrong, read as quite towny. I'm wondering if that might be a mistake on my part, and if that was more him trying to understand his power, rather than him trying to square things up with town and make helpful use of his power. Towny at the moment but I need to re-read.

bessie and Lawrencelot I haven't yet made up my mind on.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Lawrencelot » Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:29 pm UTC

I think mpolo is town because his claims and actions have given town info about what actually happened at night and cleared up some confusions. Besides this, nothing in his posts stands out as scummy to me.

Now what's interesting is the current interaction between jimbob and bessie. I was a bit wary about both of them, but if they are bussing each other they're taking a big risk. I think only one of them is scum, with either Snark or Echo. I'll be looking at jimbob and bessie first.

Summary of bessie:
Spoiler:
Gives D1 impressions. No concrete conclusions on who's scum.

For the record, I have no night results to claim. So one of the following: I didn’t have a night action, I didn’t submit a night action, or I don’t have a result to share.

This looks weird to me, to specify it like that. Bessie, why did you provide this explanation?

Some good points on jimbob regarding his stance on Snark.

Asks Snark a question. Bessie: did Snark answer your question about him sharing your results?

Slight ping on emlightened.

Does some set-up discussion and more player analysis. Good opinions on some players, but her read on me reminds me of SirGabriel's read on me in the last Smalltown: finding me more townie than I find myself. SirGabriel was scum in that game.

Interactions with jimbob.

Bessie, I have some questions for you inside the spoiler above.

Conclusion: bessie has some good content and good arguments against jimbob. One could accuse her of tunnelling on jimbob, but upon closer inspection this is not true, she's given opinions on all living players. However, I think those opinions are a bit safe, and there are no concrete conclusions yet. Also, her opinion of me is troubling: usually the people that find me town when I'm not really playing that townie are scum themselves, see SirGabriel in Smalltown mafia. Not that she called me town exactly, but she has called my posts solid for some reason. I think bessie is either town, or scum with Snark or Echo.

Will analyse jimbob next.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Suzaku » Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:30 pm UTC

Sorry no proper deadline has been posted yet.

Deadline in 24 hours from this post.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Suzaku » Mon Jan 11, 2016 1:18 pm UTC

Since no one is currently voting:

If there are no votes at deadline, there will be no lynch.

Deadline in just over 23 hours.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 11, 2016 1:38 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: My impression here is that she is trying to find fault with me (as opposed to simply looking for scummy things about my play), but that might simply be because she is the perhaps the first to raise significant concerns about me.

I am looking for fault/scum tells by looking for scummy things in your play, not instead of looking for scummy things in your play. What do you mean by fault that isn’t scummy? How are the things I pointed out faults but non-scummy faults?
Sorry, that point didn't come across quite how I meant it. What I was trying to say is that it felt to me like you were specifially targeting me, and trying to find anything you could to back this up, even things that really aren't scummy but could be made to look like such.

On the moody redirections, my apologies. I misremembered what he'd claimed, and thought he said everyone he targeted.

With deadline less than 24 hours away, I plan on voting tonight. I'm going to wait to see what Lawrencelot's analysis looks like before making a decision. I'd also appreciate it if SirGabriel gives some opinions, given he's the only one I can be 100% certain of being town.

I guess it's worth reminding people to place any action they may have and to include a backup in case their target gets lynched at short notice. We don't want a repeat of Mpolo's N2 (almost) wasted action.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:14 pm UTC

Oooh, a deadline. OK, I'll be reading through stuff this evening (6 to 8 hours from now or so) and will try to come up with something useful by then.

So far my impression is that for tonight's lynch, the focus is either on one of the {Lawrencelot, bessie, Echo} group, or on Snark from the {Snark, mpolo, jimbob} group. I'll be having a bit of a look at Snark, but more trying to make sense of the newer players. On balance, I think bessie's looked the townier of the two, so if pushed, right now my vote would end up on Lawrencelot more through lack of much else to go on than anything else.

So, two new players to make sense of. Snark I'm going to reread, might include him in the potentially-vote-for pool depending on that. Right now I'd also add jimbob to that pool, though he doesn't seem to be troubling anyone else's scumdar particularly, apart from bessie addressing quite a lot of comments from him. Though maybe that's more my paranoia than my scumdar. It's more that other players have seemed more open and helpful, and while he's posting quite a lot of commentary, all the words make the content seem thinner. However, I don't think we'll be lynching him today unless things have a significant sudden shift. Like it looked like they did on D1.

I'll post and vote this evening as... bluh, work is insane at the moment, I can't guarantee being able to post before the deadline during the day tomorrow. If anyone wants to ask me anything, before this evening would be good. ;-D
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Lawrencelot » Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:23 pm UTC

Jimbob summary:
Spoiler:
Detailed reads on players. Finishes with FOS: Madge.
Also asks questions to players.

Claims to have been roleblocked N1.

Thinks moody was poisoned by town. Trusts mpolo.

Confident that moody is scum.

More detailed reads on players. Ends up voting emlightened, then me, then SirG.

Not many things stood out to me in jimbob's posts, but I did get a general feel. It seems he tries to come across townie, which doesn't say anything, but he doesn't take big risks. There were not a lot of votes and FOSes, but I think this counts for other players too. He defended himself well in his discussion with bessie, so I'm now more inclined that their interaction is one of two townies arguing. The only thing that worries me is that jimbob plays the same way he did in Smalltown, where he was a werewolf, but a sample size of 1 doesn't say anything. Conclusion: slightly townie, if scum I don't know with whom.

Now I'll have to look at Snark and Echo to see if they are more likely scum than bessie/jimbob, or if I can find any links.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby emlightened » Mon Jan 11, 2016 4:09 pm UTC

Sorry, but I probably won't have time for a decent-length post for the next few hours, but one should be coming later today. I might be able to fit in a post after that one in before the deadline, but don't count on it.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby mpolo » Mon Jan 11, 2016 4:29 pm UTC

I wrote this a couple of hours ago and forgot to post it (or rather, needed to write two more sentences…). Before I forget again, I will post and send target(s) for tomorrow. Vote is forthcoming.

Some thoughts:
We have 7 living players, likely 2 mafia left. This means that it is likely not LYLO (that would require 3 mafia, I think).

I have a town result on emlightened. Which makes me tend to trust her. However, I am not discarding the possibility of a godfather. Tentatively townie.

bessie's recent content is pretty good. Her report of night actions was a little funny. As Lawrencelot says, it is rather unlikely that both bessie and jimbob are scum. Townie.

jimbob's long texts don't seem to have that much content. Certain wordings, like his analysis of possibilities of combinations of scum and town for myself and emlightened, strike me as somewhat odd and overworked. Due to the conflict with bessie, who looks more townie in general, slight scum lean.

Lawrencelot has been generally good in recent moments. Townish.

Snark had some weirdness early on with the "grouping" strategy, but I can chalk that up to trying something new. Suggested the use of a day-cop. Since I don't think that scum has two godfathers, this wins him some townie points. Also his stance on Madge was very early. Townish.

Echo pointed out emlightened's likely scum status because of votes on Madge. Has a power they don't know what to do with. Generally feels townie.

It looks like my preference would be to vote for jimbobmacadoodle, but I don't feel like I have a lot of weight behind it.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:11 pm UTC

I got a phone call so I won't have time to post content before work. I want to let everyone know that I will probably be asleep at deadline so my window to post will probably be about 10-15 hours from now.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby mpolo » Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:48 pm UTC

With the deadline falling when it does, I better at least tentatively

Vote: jimbobmacadoodle

I *might* manage to get a short post in before deadline, but Tuesday mornings are rather tight.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:58 pm UTC

OK, sadly that means I'm just going to have to decide which way to vote now, and then see what happens tomorrow. And probably not find out who's been lynched until tomorrow evening, because work has gone stupid busy and everyone is looking to me to solve all their problems.

Anyway. Enough bitching about work.

I'm looking through early D2. Sabrar's reading of Snark - towny action on the Madge vote, less towny posting style - feels about right, then this gets shifted scumwards for self-awarding towny points on the Madge lynch, but townward for the discussion of his results. And yet... that didn't come until he was trying to understand his results conflicting with other available info. The manner of the sharing confuses me a little, it's more like he's trying to understand his power than help town. Then again, it smells like he got hit pretty hard by moody's redirection power, so the actual information is no good. Then swift posting of the investigation result D3... conveniently in to the now dead Serial Killer minestrone... I'm reading this as increasingly convenient the longer I look at it. It's a safe investigation for scum!Snark as it tells Town nothing. And town!Snark has already discussed investigation results; why haven't the mafia killed him? Either that or nerfed him some other way. I... don't like that. Last night, I think Mafia killed Minestrone the Serial Killer after he'd killed Sabrar - that's the most likely explanation to me, anyway. I don't know why neither of them went after Snark, who's claimed an investigation power. Unless they thought his cop power was naive/insane/paranoid/whatever, or unless they thought "Ha! Wine!" and left him alive so we'd lynch him.

I'm re-reading the bit where jimbob is tunnelling a poisoned moody and am wondering what that was about. jimbob uses lots of words, analyses everyone, shifts everywhere, safe opinions, not venturing too far... I'm starting to wonder if that's more looking for a weak towny to pick on than scum hunting. It's an absolutely unjustified gut feeling more than anything else. I'd be OK with his lynching, I think, but I'm not sure what I'd grab hold of in particular to push it. It's more a gut feel.

bessie's seemed pretty good since she replaced in. I don't know. Some interesting conflict with jimbob. Rolling eyes at the "This is my first game as town!" was pretty much how I felt.

Lawrencelot has only just really picked up, but his posts seem reasonably good. He's more hunting for a scum team than individuals, but I feel that's tricky when there are so many players with low content, including himself. However, he's suddenly active and the things he posts are mostly making sense.

I read mpolo as town and trust his cop result on emlightened. SirG is town as proven by his death, which is a little melodramatic but at least we have a result on him as well as the handy day-cop power.

So: the vote. Final answer... I dunno. One from {Snark, jimbob, bessie, Lawrencelot}. I'll think things over and either vote tonight or fight for some time at work to post tomorrow. If pushed, I'd either go for jimbob or Lawrencelot.

Ninja'd by mpolo voting jimbob. I might join him later.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Lawrencelot » Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:54 pm UTC

Although I agree with what's been said about jimbob, I don't agree he's the best lynch candidate.

SirGabriel, if you're online before deadline (less than 3 hours I think) can you make another post with a fake vote?

For now, I'll follow SirG's latest post:

SirGabriel wrote:Yes, I am confirmed town. No, I don't really want to lead the lynch, but if I did it would either be for Echo (not because of anything Echo said or did, but because of how freezeblade played) or Snark.


because it also resonates with my thoughts. I was really mostly suspicious of Echo but I find myself mostly agreeing with her post above. Since I wanted Snark lynched since D1 and I don't feel like voting someone I agree with mostly:

Vote: Snark

My other preferences are still Echo, and to a lesser extent jimbob or bessie. Will switch to jimbob if SirGabriel (or maybe emlightened, since she's semi-confirmed) thinks he's a good lynch, but only to prevent a tie.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:03 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote:SirGabriel, if you're online before deadline (less than 3 hours I think) can you make another post with a fake vote?

Deadline's not for another 14.5 hours, but if you insist,

Vote: Echo

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Lawrencelot » Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:47 pm UTC

No time to post more but I can live with that.

Unvote;

Vote: Echo244

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:53 pm UTC

Hmph. No time to really make any sort of case against that other than what I've already posted. I can probably get 15 minutes or so at work tomorrow to post, so enough to quickly read stuff and answer questions or change my vote, but that's all.

I still don't know who to vote for. And I needed to have gone to bed before now. I've been dithering between Snark and jimbob, mostly on my theory of one mafia among the active players,and there's more there to read from. bessie and Lawrencelot have seemed not too bad since their activity picked up.

I'll vote tomorrow, I'm too tired to make a good decision now.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:34 pm UTC

Right, vote time. I should be around in the morning to review.

My three candidates in my opinion are Lawrencelot and bessie (for being my earlier scum reads) and Echo (for a) being my weakest town read, and b) because SirG is suggesting her).

@SirGabriel - could you briefly summarise why Echo should be lynched, please?

Lawrencelot has posted some reasonable content since my previous post. Given that my main reason for finding him scum was his low content, I feel better about him now. I noticed that he and other(s?) are concerned that my playstyle seems to be the same as Smalltown. I think it's worth pointing out that although I was scum, I also needed to genuinely scum hunt, since there was another major scum faction out there, so that's probably what you're seeing.

He did however not answer my question in my analysis post, so to repeat:

@Lawrencelot - why do you think mpolo is town?

bessie hasn't posted any content since my reads post yesterday, so I don't see any reason to shift my opinion of her away from where it is. I

Echo is quite chatty. In response to her thoughts on my tunnelling moody, I feel to point out that I explicitly acknowledged at the end that I didn't see any reason to vote moody because of the poisoning, so I'm not quite sure how I could be picking on him specifically. The reason for the post was because I had promised on D1 to look back at moody if Madge flipped scum, which she did. In retrospect, I went about it the wrong way, ignoring the fact that many of my points were along the lines of "doing this could be seen as scum, yet looked at from a different perspective could be seen as town" and always assumed the scum side of things. I'm not sure it's fair of her to call my posts wordy but lacking content. I almost feel the same way about her's - her paragraph on Snark seems very similar to much of how I think I try to post.

She hasn't yet voted either, despite seeing votes appearing already. On its own, that's not a serious issue, since she genuinely might not have made up her mind, but I'm going to keep a closer eye on how she does vote, since I'm slightly concerned that Echo is leaving herself with lots of options as to which way to jump. She has 4 of the other 6 living players as possible lynch candidates, which is rather a broad brush, especially given that one of the two remaining is the town-copped emlightened.

My top two lynch preferences are now bessie and Echo. Given that SirG has suggested Echo for the lynch, I am tempted to go that way as well. Nobody else particularly seems to agree with me on bessie either, so:

Vote Echo
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby emlightened » Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:19 am UTC

mpolo: Slightly protective of jimbob. Reads are all neutral-ish. On reread, his 'of the two of them' was moody&misnomer, not madge&misnomer, so that's where the 'mpolo is a SK' argument fell apart. Announces results quickly, potentially but probably not made-up. Votes poisoned moody; near-useless action on SirG on N2. Asks before using present from SirG. Seems pretty townie.

jimbobmacdoodle: Pretty inactive on the first half of D1. Some decent-sized analysis. Focuses on moody. Will finish later.


I'm really tired, which is why the analysis is so short. (I thought I should get it out now, and continue it tomorrow.) I think I'll probably vote for Echo or one of jimbob/snark, depending on how they come up.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby bessie » Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:56 am UTC

Responses to questions and other content directed at me.

Lawrencelot wrote:
For the record, I have no night results to claim. So one of the following: I didn’t have a night action, I didn’t submit a night action, or I don’t have a result to share.

This looks weird to me, to specify it like that. Bessie, why did you provide this explanation?

This is me being overly cautious until I could get a feel for the game. I wanted everyone to know that I didn’t have anything to share but I wasn’t ready yet to reveal why. I probably should have just claimed. Djehutynakht did not submit a night action.

Lawrencelot wrote:Asks Snark a question. Bessie: did Snark answer your question about him sharing your results?

Not yet. He has made two very short posts since I asked the question.

Lawrencelot wrote:Also, her opinion of me is troubling: usually the people that find me town when I'm not really playing that townie are scum themselves, see SirGabriel in Smalltown mafia. Not that she called me town exactly, but she has called my posts solid for some reason.

You're right, I didn’t call you town, or scum either. I described your posts as solid because you usually have very little fluff in your posts. Not that all fluff is bad, a certain amount and type of fluff makes this a friendlier place and reminds us that there are real people behind the usernames. For example (I’ll pick on myself since I am usually guilty of posting fluff), I have mentioned the weather in Southern California, problems with my leaky roof, and problems with my utilities. If I had been here since D1, you probably would have also heard about my very elderly Labrador retriever, watching my husband’s band, and some banter with Madge about her recent wedding. This is all good fluff, when it only takes a sentence or two, and when it’s not a substitute for posting game content. The bad kind of fluff is the active lurking fluff (examples upon request). This whole paragraph has been pretty much fluff, but I'm almost done. I also described your posts as solid because you manage to present your content in a clear and concise manner, while others like me need more words to explain our thoughts. I don’t think either is better, it’s just a difference in style. So my conclusion is that while your posts contained game content, it would be nice if there were more of them.

emlightened wrote:Don't understand this comment:
bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm still trying to figure out the best strategy for helping me tune my scumdar, especially given that this is my first town game.

Hmm. :roll:
Bessie, could you explain what you mean here?

I’m trying to implant the subtle hint that I think jimbobmacdoodle was trying to implant a subtle hint that he was town in this game and that he was trying not to be too obvious about it. And with the eye roll, I was being a bit less subtle.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sorry, that point didn't come across quite how I meant it. What I was trying to say is that it felt to me like you were specifially targeting me, and trying to find anything you could to back this up, even things that really aren't scummy but could be made to look like such.

I’m trying to find scum tells from all players, not just you, but I do have a habit of tunneling (if moody were alive he would probably agree with this). I think that maybe the reason it looks like I am tunneling on you is that you were the first player to reply to my posts and ask me questions, so I have had more interaction with you than with other players. And really, I think I have been a lot harsher on freezeblade/Echo than on you.

Echo’s latest content has been OK, but hasn’t really been townie enough to move her off my suspicious list. Snark is moving down my scum list with his lack of content and failure to answer my question. And I’m still wary of jimbobmacdoodle. So I think my opinion is unchanged from this earlier comment.
bessie wrote: If I had to vote now I would probably vote for Echo, based on freezeblade’s content and because Echo’s posts are more neutral than townie.

I want to give everyone (especially Snark, who hasn’t posted in a while) a little more time before I place a third vote on Echo, but will need to vote in the next hour or so because I’ll be asleep at deadline.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby mpolo » Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:15 am UTC

I don't have any real problem with Echo, but I was also only really looking at the last couple of pages of input. If the rest of town decides to lynch there, I don't have anything to say against it.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby bessie » Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:40 am UTC

Vote: Echo244

I probably won't be posting again before deadline.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Suzaku » Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:07 am UTC

Echo is at L-1

Deadline in about 4.5 hours
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:58 am UTC

Quick morning check-in to say that I am now more happy with Bessie, so Echo is now definitely my main suspect. I don't see any reason to pull back from L-1 now, but would suggest no hammering until Echo has had a chance to defend herself.
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matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:52 am UTC

Well, looks like I'm getting lynched. Much obliged for not hammering so I get to do the old speech from the scaffold bit. Once I flip town, this will hopefully be worth reading. For those who currently think I'm scum, this is probably not worth reading yet.

I'm very suspicious of some of the people piling in on my wagon. I've been skimming more than keeping detailed notes but I didn't think I'd so quickly pick up so many votes, despite getting a few mentions as being low on content, more due to just having replaced in than anything else. Oh well, at least I help Town by not being a modkill.

I'm sticking to my theory of at least one scum among the active posters. And mpolo has seemed most towny so far - SirG trusted him with the day cop power, so that's a pretty strong position.

Snark... I'm quite conflicted about. Initially seemed town once you got past that weird random grouping thing, but on closer inspection, his results haven't really seemed to help. And he's not been murdered in the night. I'm kind of talking myself in to suspecting him more.

jimbob's still talking too much. Very towny on the Madge lynch, but now looking increasingly like he's pushing for weaknesses more than scum hunting.

bessie's acknowledging that she's being a lot harsher on me just before voting for me. Which... amuses me. No detailed analysis of my responses to her request for more reads, just "seems more neutral than towny". That looks more like a leap on a bandwagon than anything else.

While it might seem OMGYS-ey, bessie and jimbob's interaction for no outcome, before both voting for me, looks like my strongest recommendation for a scumteam from current reads. Snark needs to have a good investigation result tomorrow, though, otherwise his power has been absolutely no use at all.

I think that's all. I don't really think there's enough time/people around to convince against my lynch, and no stronger candidate to present, so that's what I've got; lynch me and try and learn what you can from it. Go Town!

Echo out.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:29 am UTC

@Echo - are you saying that you are a better candidate for town to lynch than anyone else? I'm a little confused why you haven't voted for someone else, since town!you only knows your own alignment with 100% certainty, therefore in most cases it's better for someone else to be lynched from your point of view. It might be futile, but there would at least be someone else to talk about, and we've already seen fairly rapid vote swings post original deadlines before.

If you really think bessie and I are a team, vote for one of us (I guess you'd pick me since there's someone else voting for me, but obviously I'd disagree with that choice), and see if any of the people who haven't voted yet join you.

This might be tunnelling a bit, so please someone point it out if I am, but this lack of placing a vote seems to me to be someone who's given up. I'd think scum are more likely to do that in the situation, and not vote for risk of giving away additional information to town.
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matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:23 pm UTC

Oh FFS. I've listed my thoughts so that Town can consider them later once my alignment is mentioned in my post-lynch obituary from the mod, I completely expect to get lynched largely due to the lack of activity around anyone else, and that the deadline comes (a) very soon and (b) more or less in the middle of the working day for me, so I'm not exactly expecting most players to be free to shift things around. I don't expect my vote to shift things, nor for other people to shift their votes at this sort of notice in enough numbers to make a difference, and without my being able to offer any strong reasoning for why they should do so.

Lynching from the pool of lurkers is not an unreasonable thing for Town to do, and I am deep in that pool. I'm Town, but I do think at least one of the other people in that pool isn't. And reading lurkers from our recent surge of activity is not easy, it's like we're on D1, more or less, while everyone else is D3.

If you think "Oh no, she's avoiding voting to avoid giving out information! And she seems not to be trying to avoid being lynched therefore scum!" then you're failing to consider why I wrote anything at all, particularly pointing some big clear fingers at three people in particular.

But if it makes you happy,

Vote: jimbob

Not jumping on a bandwagon to try to save myself. Just trying to please jimbob. ;-D
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:53 pm UTC

Thank you :P

Sorry if I annoyed you with the pressure for a vote. And thank you for doing so (even if it was on me).

I was trying to understand why town!you wouldn't vote in the current situation. I wasn't dismissing your arguments. If you do flip town, your statements will be appreciated. If you don't, well there may still be useful information to glean from them.

Now, let's see if Suzaku is planning on keeping roughly to deadline this time :P
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Suzaku » Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:31 pm UTC

:P
Deadline.

Echo has been lynched and is dead.

Night processing starts now.
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