2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - Game Over

For your simulated organized crime needs.

Moderators: jestingrabbit, Moderators General, Prelates

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:31 pm UTC

@Suzaku: Could we have a mod-prod on Lawrencelot and freezeblade please?

@Djehutynakht: we are still waiting for your first contribution.

User avatar
Minestrone
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:21 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Minestrone » Tue Dec 29, 2015 2:41 am UTC

I am on the road and can only post from my phone so my posts will be brief. I'm not super impressed with SirG's analysis and agree that a lot of it is summary. Their follow up post was a little better. I think the idea that emlightened is newbie town is plausible especially if moody is scum so I'd like to wait on her for Moody's flip, and I'd rather wait for moody to die of poison than waste a lynch on them. My top scum is still freezeblade. I swear I don't always latch on this hard to the first person I vote for but usually the first person I vote for goes on to do something at least vaguely townie, which fb hasn't.

Vote: Freezeblade

To be reevaluated after they post/are replaced

User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Dec 29, 2015 11:20 am UTC

Some thoughts on the other surviving players that I haven't posted lots about recently:

emlightened: I thought that she might be newbie town playing, but looking back at her posts, I'm not so sure. She is heavily focused on moody and Misnomer early on, and never seems to seriously consider anybody outside those two. Her voting pattern on moody suggests that she either is trying to defend Madge late on, or possibly that she doesn't see her as scummy genuinely. Her only previous comment on Madge at that point was:
emlightened wrote:Posts have been fairly wishy-washy, and little real content. It's possible that she's been doing this because she's ill, but not sure.

Which could be a ground for finding someone scummy. Unfortunately, emlightened never said in that post whether she found Madge scummy at that point. On rereading, her comment asking about my vote for Madge also suggests she's trying to get me to redirect my vote away from Madge. She's had no D2 content as of yet.

@emlightened - can you explain why you thought Madge wasn't scum?

freezeblade: I kind of already said this, but I haven't seen anything that looks particularly different from freezeblade's D1 Draculafia play, i.e. low content D1. I expect more today. I would say that his vote on Misnomer was quite aggressive, but may be an attempt by town!freezeblade trying to see something he considers worthy of a vote.

Lawrencelot: He hasn't posted anything in a long time, and nothing since my previous comments on him. His failure to unvote Snark after it was pointed out what Snark had said is vaguely suspicious, but given that he hasn't posted anything since that time, it's not too significant. What posts he did make contain some, but not much, content on a selection of players, but nothing on our confirmed scum Madge, and posts that find Misnomer and crucialityfactor (both confirmed town via death) somewhat scummy.

Minestrone: Whilst I disagree with his opinions on freezeblade, he has been sticking by them, so that makes him feel townie to me. His thoughts on other players he has posted about seem pretty good (in that they are similar to mine), although he hasn't talked about every player as yet (e.g. me). He does disagree with the Madge lynch, saying that her opinion progression on Misnomer seemed natural to him. Seems to me that he missed that there were other reasons people were voting for her anyway.

moody: see earlier posts

mpolo: I don't have any strong feelings about mpolo. He has a decent level of content, and voted for Madge, sticking by it and causing a tie rather than breaking it in favour of someone he didn't want lynched (not looked at it in context, but I'm pretty sure it was moody). Since Madge turned out to be scum, I think this is a fairly strong town move, especially if moody flips non-scum. With the possible exception of his claim being too convenient, and even that is a very weak reason, I can't see something that makes him scum, so given the decent amount of content, I'm willing to view him as town for now, I've decided.

@mpolo - follow up in response to your answer, did you consider that revealing your role gives scum a potentially good target, whereas all your claim says is that crucialityfactor was killed by a dead townie, and not a scum player? If so, why do you believe that this was worth the early claim?

patzer/DJ: no significant content. DJ needs to post content now!

Sabrar: Contrary to what others have said about him before, I think he has a lot of content, and most of it seems fairly decent stuff, especially given how much mirrors my own style and thoughts. I do find his voting pattern towards the end of D1 rather odd. He did end up on Madge, and was the last player to do so, very late into the day. I think that's worth some town-cred, as scum!Sabrar could easily have stayed on the moody wagon. The only way it wouldn't be a townie move is if there are two scum factions and moody flips a different such scum faction to Madge's.

SirGabriel: See previous post.

Snark: I think I like Snark's playstyle overall. He voted for Madge first, and stuck with it, which I doubt scum!Snark would have done, given he could easily have switched to a different vote wagon had he wanted to, and probably caused a lynch in that direction, given the way the wagons evolved. Not posted a huge amount in terms of volume, but apart from his weird grouping thing that nobody seems to understand, what he has posted seems pretty content-ful.

Conclusions:

Probably town: Minestrone, mpolo, Sabrar, Snark
More likely scum: emlightened, Lawrencelot, moody, SirGabriel (for the record, I doubt that all of these are scum)
Insufficient content: DJ, freezeblade

From my analysis so far, after moody I think emlightened is most likely scum.

Vote: emlightened
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

User avatar
mpolo
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:24 pm UTC
Location: Germany

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby mpolo » Tue Dec 29, 2015 12:13 pm UTC

@mpolo - follow up in response to your answer, did you consider that revealing your role gives scum a potentially good target, whereas all your claim says is that crucialityfactor was killed by a dead townie, and not a scum player? If so, why do you believe that this was worth the early claim?


Not really. I so seldom make it through 2 or three nights, I thought that any result was worth getting out at that point. (If I'd had no result, obviously I wouldn't have said anything. If no info comes out, we have a (nearly) day one experience.
Image <-- Evil experiment

User avatar
Snark
Posts: 425
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:22 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Snark » Wed Dec 30, 2015 2:54 am UTC

SirGabriel, did you target someone with an action last night?

I'm trying to figure out why info I have doesn't match info publicly known.
Dashboard Confessional wrote:I want to give you whatever you need. What is it you need? Is it within me?


Avatar by Matt

User avatar
SirGabriel
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:54 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Dec 30, 2015 11:51 am UTC

Snark wrote:SirGabriel, did you target someone with an action last night?

No, I did not.

User avatar
Snark
Posts: 425
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:22 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Snark » Wed Dec 30, 2015 3:24 pm UTC

N1 I investigated SirGabriel, got that they were Mr Potato Head and targeted cf last night and that they were named Mr Potato Head.

I believe my results are either random or always wrong (and chosen from among other players) since my results contradict both mpolo and SirGabriel.

Hopefully when I die, my roles hidden mechanics will allow you to interpret my results correctly.
Dashboard Confessional wrote:I want to give you whatever you need. What is it you need? Is it within me?


Avatar by Matt

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Sabrar » Wed Dec 30, 2015 4:15 pm UTC

@Snark: receiving both role-name and tracker result seems a bit strong without a hidden mechanic, so I can definitely see that. You also could have been redirected to mpolo. Or mpolo and SirGabriel are Mafia, they killed crucialityfactor and an SK killed Misnomer. Lots of possible permutations.
Does anyone want to claim being Mr Potato Head (without revealing anything else)? For the record, I'm not him.

User avatar
SirGabriel
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:54 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Dec 30, 2015 4:20 pm UTC

I am not Mr. Potato Head. I think Snark should keep telling us his night results, but I suspect they will tell us nothing meaningful until he is dead.

User avatar
mpolo
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:24 pm UTC
Location: Germany

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby mpolo » Wed Dec 30, 2015 8:18 pm UTC

I am not Mr. Potato Head.

Snark's results are pretty weird there compared to mine. My role specifies that I am "clumsy", which according to the information I have, means that someone who I see while watching may see me in the act of watching them. Now I wonder if there's not an error factor as well that is hidden from me.
Image <-- Evil experiment

User avatar
Snark
Posts: 425
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:22 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Snark » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:31 am UTC

Snark wrote:N1 I investigated SirGabriel, got that they were Mr Potato Head TOWN and targeted cf last night and that they were named Mr Potato Head.

EBWOP

Also, I did already plan on continuing to share my results.
Dashboard Confessional wrote:I want to give you whatever you need. What is it you need? Is it within me?


Avatar by Matt

User avatar
moody7277
Posts: 523
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:06 pm UTC
Location: Extreme south Texas

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby moody7277 » Thu Dec 31, 2015 2:05 am UTC

Point of information on Snark's results: I have a random redirection ability that I used on him and a couple other people on N1. My list was who I thought of as sketchy at the time, plus our lurker-in-chief DJ.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

User avatar
Snark
Posts: 425
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:22 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Snark » Thu Dec 31, 2015 2:11 am UTC

Vote: moody

Using redirection N1 or at all is good enough reason for a vote when I don't know what else to do. Making me claim for no freaking reason.

I guess whoever is potato is town from my POV though so they should probably claim.
Dashboard Confessional wrote:I want to give you whatever you need. What is it you need? Is it within me?


Avatar by Matt

User avatar
moody7277
Posts: 523
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:06 pm UTC
Location: Extreme south Texas

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby moody7277 » Thu Dec 31, 2015 3:21 am UTC

Your ire is understandable, but your vote is redundant; I'm already dead. Attention is better spent by looking to the other people you find scummy, perhaps Lawr or emlightened?

*cough cough*
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Sabrar » Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:32 am UTC

@moody7277: if you're so sure that you will die anyway, you should be giving out as much information as you can to help us win. That includes your full role and all your targets from N1. The fact that you didn't do so indicates to me that either you're convinced that you'll survive being poisoned, or you're not Town. Assuming that you're Town and have not lied regarding your ability the only way that I can see that you would be sure to survive is if you submitted the poisoning role and knew the hidden mechanic behind it. Obviously you can't comment on this, but I find it very unlikely. Also I agree with Snark that using a random redirection power on N1 is not townie. Therefore I'm now more convinced that you're scum and doubt that you're telling the truth about your ability.

@Snark: alignment-cop + name-cop + tracker? I think there's definitely a hidden mechanic there to balance it, regardless of redirection.

Voting: At this point I believe we should wait for the mod to come online and issue mod-prods and/or -kills as 4 players haven't participated at all in the discussion for over a week. This is way beyond lurking and we shouldn't have to waste lynches on them.
Sabrar wrote:@Suzaku: Could we have a mod-prod on Lawrencelot and freezeblade please?

@Suzaku: Could we have a mod-prod on Djehutynakht and emlightened as well?

User avatar
Snark
Posts: 425
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:22 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Snark » Thu Dec 31, 2015 5:04 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Your ire is understandable, but your vote is redundant; I'm already dead. Attention is better spent by looking to the other people you find scummy, perhaps Lawr or emlightened?

*cough cough*

I forgot but it doesn't change my vote. Poison could be fake or stopped somehow. I have no other reads. Also Sabrar is right and we need some mod prods.
Dashboard Confessional wrote:I want to give you whatever you need. What is it you need? Is it within me?


Avatar by Matt

User avatar
Minestrone
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:21 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Minestrone » Thu Dec 31, 2015 5:42 pm UTC

I'm not Mr Potato Head.

I agree that the poison could be an attempt to redirect us (I think I even remember reading a game in which one member of the mafia poisoned another member for the sake of wine) but I think that we might as well wait and see if moody dies on his own first, and then if the poison suddenly clears up we lynch him. That way moody dies one way or another but if they do die of poison we don't waste a lynch.

@moody Is the coughing a posting restriction of some kind or just your own flavor?

Thoughts on mpolo while I'm still thinking them: I like their justification for claiming for its simplicity. The tendency is to overthink things but in a closed setup like this there's no way to know for sure if it's a net good to claim, only if claiming would give town useful information. Their posts have been townie but mpolo is absolutely the kind of player who will appear townie as scum. Their voting pattern is a more solid indicator of their alignment than their posts and so far that's leaning town.

Snark's claim is interesting. Townie points for admitting that information they beleived they had clashed with public information, going against the grain like that is not something scum would want to do. Still, the very fact that their information is obviously unreliable might make their claim safer for scum in a way. I'll be interested to see what happens with them on future days.

User avatar
mpolo
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:24 pm UTC
Location: Germany

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby mpolo » Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:18 pm UTC

Well, we really need to pick up on content here. I feel pretty good about practically everyone who is actually posting, except for moody:

The way he is stressing his "I'm poisoned and going to die anyway, please continue to ignore me" is a bit thickly laid on. I suppose he could be town trying to make the best of a nasty situation, but it feels more like scum who is certain that he won't die from this and just wants to distract us and hopefully get us to mislynch for a day. This especially with the vague revelation that he messed with a few people's targetting in a random way, only specifically naming Snark, and thus making our whole discussion of results practically moot.

Unless there is some movement from others, I intend to vote for moody.
Image <-- Evil experiment

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:46 pm UTC

moody7277 is a safe lynch in the sense that if he's scum we're happy and if he's Town he would have died anyways. However in both cases it feels like a no-lynch to me which I would like to avoid. I want to wait for the mod's actions before deciding who to vote for. It really depends on what happens to our lurkers.

User avatar
Suzaku
Posts: 275
Joined: Thu May 31, 2012 10:20 am UTC
Location: Tokyo, Japan

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Suzaku » Sun Jan 03, 2016 1:11 am UTC

Happy New Year, everyone.
Hope you all had a great holiday.

Want to get this back running properly: so tentatively setting a deadline for Tuesday (1/5) evening my time.

Votals:

Lawrencelot - 1 (moody7277)
freezeblade - 2 (SirGabriel, Minestrone)
emlightened - 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)
moody7277 - 1 (Snark)

Not Voting (7) - Djehutynakht, freezeblade, emlightened, mpolo, Sabrar, Lawrencelot

Deadline: 2015/1/5 22:00 JST (13:00 UTC)

Djehutynakht, freezeblade, emlightened, and Lawrencelot have been prodded. If I haven't heard from them by Monday evening I will start looking for replacements.
Pronouns: he/him/his > they/them/their >> it/it/its
Time Zone: JST (UTC+9)
─────────────────────────
Some guy on the Internet wrote:The thing about the inevitable, it has a bad habit of actually happening.

User avatar
emlightened
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2015 9:35 pm UTC
Location: Somewhere cosy.

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby emlightened » Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:45 am UTC

Happy new year.

Also, sorry for not posting in the thread for ages. I hope that Suzaku doesn't need to bring in replacements again.

I am also not Mr. Potato Head. I do have a new avatar, though.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@emlightened - can you explain why you thought Madge wasn't scum?

Her (first) post that analyses Misnomer, Freeze etc., although I didn't (and don't) agree with the FoS's, I felt was pretty comparable to how I felt about Misnomer and Mpolo at the time. The freezeblade comment was odd, but she said that was sarcasm, so I didn't think much of it. Her later stating the possibility that we've got a Miller was correct (I didn't see anything wrong with it), but I guess it makes more sense now that we know she was scum.

Looking back, she didn't have much content for me to feel against, but I guess that puts me in the same boat as Misnomer's list, which had her at the top of the 'Nice' pile.

Anyway, those are my reasons, and I'll post more stuff tomorrow.
Bleb. Idk when I'm returning.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:01 pm UTC

So it looks like there won't be any mod-kills before day-end, which is unfortunate as it means that we must decide on a lynch without having any input from 3 players. Extension only makes sense if replacements are found and can provide content very quickly.
I don't have a sufficiently damning case against anyone, so it comes down to choosing a lurker to lynch. I don't think it is likely that moody7277 can be cured as that would probably mean a separate role and it's very unlikely that two players independently submitted such a pair. Also I don't think it can be a fake, as that would most likely mean a flavor-writing role which was prohibited.
There is one thing I find suspicious and that is Minestrone and SirGabriel teaming to lynch freezeblade.-
- I FoS-ed Minestrone previously and I really don't like this post from them as it basically boils down to just agreeing with some of the points I made earlier and providing no new information. This post however looks much better, offering good analysis and content.
- I also found SirGabriel's analysis here scummy, his later reasoning does not convince me completely as in my opinion it does not consider some previously established facts. Also he defends Minestrone very heavily.
As I've been previously wrong about possible connections between players I do not consider the above as a good indicator for a possible scum-partnership, however it makes me want to avoid a train on freezeblade.
It's a toss-up between Djehutynakht and Lawrencelot, with the latter being more suspicious only because he posted some questionable assertations while the former remained completely silent.

For now:
UnFoS: Minestrone
FoS: SirGabriel

Vote: Lawrencelot

User avatar
emlightened
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2015 9:35 pm UTC
Location: Somewhere cosy.

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby emlightened » Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:37 pm UTC

Are normal doctors normally unable to cure someone who's been poisoned, or am I missing something? It seems like a lot of people have agreed that the chance of moody being able to be unpoisoned is low, but I don't see why a normal doctor role would be unable to do this (if only possible on the night of would-be-death, at least).
Bleb. Idk when I'm returning.

User avatar
SirGabriel
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:54 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:41 pm UTC

emlightened wrote:Are normal doctors normally unable to cure someone who's been poisoned, or am I missing something? It seems like a lot of people have agreed that the chance of moody being able to be unpoisoned is low, but I don't see why a normal doctor role would be unable to do this (if only possible on the night of would-be-death, at least).

It would depend on the wording of the role. If I created both the poisoner and the doctor, I probably would make it so the doctor could heal the poison, but in a game like this, the creater of the doctor role (if there is one) wouldn't have known about the poisoner and so might not have given the doctor any ability beyond blocking nightkills. That said, if there is a doctor and they target moody on the night moody would have died from poison, I think there's a decent chance moody would survive.

User avatar
mpolo
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:24 pm UTC
Location: Germany

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby mpolo » Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:05 pm UTC

I don't know whether I believe that the poison is fake, but it would be really easy to write a role where the mechanic is all laid out (poisoning is announced, optionally the victim has to cough, after two days the cure is announced) without having a "flavor writing" component. Or a poisoner that selects how many days the poison needs to work (and another scum player selected 15 days).

If moody is not dead tomorrow, I will be looking at him very hard.
Image <-- Evil experiment

User avatar
SirGabriel
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:54 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:08 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:I don't know whether I believe that the poison is fake, but it would be really easy to write a role where the mechanic is all laid out (poisoning is announced, optionally the victim has to cough, after two days the cure is announced) without having a "flavor writing" component. Or a poisoner that selects how many days the poison needs to work (and another scum player selected 15 days).

If moody is not dead tomorrow, I will be looking at him very hard.

I agree. If moody's not dead by tomorrow morning, we should lynch him.

User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:41 pm UTC

Given that the mod stated he would change roles for balance, I could see somebody having submitted a poisoner and then somebody else's role, such as some kind of doctor role, was twerked to also cure poison. Still, we can cross that bridge tomorrow if moody is still alive, unless anybody thinks there's some essential reason we need to deal with it today? Ninja'ed - what SirG/mpolo said.

For the record, I am not Mr Potato Head.

Thank you for your response emlightened. However, I don't see it as a good enough response to persuade me to change my mind. If you want to get me to change my vote, I expect some good content, and preferably some opinions of other players, with reasoning.

@moody - why did you use your ability? Is there any further role information you wish to reveal?
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

User avatar
Minestrone
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:21 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Minestrone » Tue Jan 05, 2016 4:52 am UTC

If I was a doctor or other poison-curer, I would not save moody. Pretty much everyone wants him dead and the poison is an opportunity to have him dead by semi-vig kill rather than waste a lynch. If moody is alive tomorrow I would want to lynch him then anyway because I don't want to deal with the possible wine of what moody surviving the poison means when he's so scummy already anyway. Given the setup a poisoner could easily be a town role and a poison-curer could easily be scum.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 05, 2016 10:59 am UTC

Wanted to post votals and urge mpolo and emlightened to vote before the deadline, when I realized that my vote set up a tie and that moody7277 (who is most likely scum) also voted for Lawrencelot. This is getting silly, everywhere I look there's a potential bus going on. Will think about it after lunch.

Unvote

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 05, 2016 11:29 am UTC

Lunch got postponed and I'm not sure if I will be here at the deadline (even if it's a soft one). My main problem right now is that I don't want to waste my vote, so I really don't want to vote for moody7277. My FoS is on SirGabriel but he obviously won't be lynched today so that's out as well. I'm afraid of the buses on Lawrencelot and freezeblade, although I think that only one of them can be real. This leaves me with no good options but to follow someone who I currently trust (jimbobmacdoodle) and set up a tie that I feel more comfortable with.

Vote: emlightened

User avatar
emlightened
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2015 9:35 pm UTC
Location: Somewhere cosy.

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby emlightened » Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:14 pm UTC

I'm going to try to look through the posts now, but if the deadline comes through at 13:00 UTC, then this is my last post before then.

Mpolo says that crucialityfactor was visited by only Misnomer in the night, who presumably happened to do the vigilante kill before getting nightkilled by the mafia. Later, Snark says that SirG 'Mr Potato Head' visited crucialityfactor as well, but it turns out that moody redirected him. Also, SirGabriel pointed out here that it's possible that mpolo is a SK, which would make sense, particularly given how quickly he gave out the result.

Still, I think we should probably trust investigation results until there's a good reason to do otherwise.

I still don't think that moody is town, and I agree on the plan to lynch him if he's alive this morning. Most of my reasons from my last post still apply, and his vote on Lawrencelot here was based on his previous analysis on him being nervously scummy (which may have been a set-up to say that he thought it all along, but something that could also be ignored if not needed). Also, it's probable that mafia didn't vote moody because he was also mafia, and the remaining member(s) wouldn't have enough vote power or subtlety to move the lynch to another player.)

Lawrencelot, Dj and freezeblade haven't responded (in thread) to the modprod (and haven't posted much else anyway), so they're probably going to be replaced. I think that we should wait until they are and we have new player content until we decide on whether to lynch them or not, but lynching a lurker is better than lynching someone active who's not scummy.


mpolo, SirGabriel and moody7277 feel the most suspicious to me, but I haven't got anything solid enough to vote on yet, so I'll hope that I can post again before the deadline.

Sorry about the short post; ran out of time.

@ninja: I believe that part of jimbob's suspicion of me is my lack of content, hopefully this fixes that?
Bleb. Idk when I'm returning.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:28 pm UTC

Unvote
Vote: moody7277


'No lynch' is better than mislynch and emlightened feels more townie to me now because she didn't vote to save herself.

User avatar
mpolo
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:24 pm UTC
Location: Germany

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby mpolo » Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:57 pm UTC

That last emlightened post did sound better.

Vote: moody

In a certain sense, a no-lynch, but in the other sense, one less night that a scum player can act. Hopefully.
Image <-- Evil experiment

User avatar
SirGabriel
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:54 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:19 pm UTC

I don't think we really gain anything from lynching moody today, so I'd rather lynch pretty much anyone else (including myself) except Minestrone.

Unvote
Vote: SirGabriel

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:36 pm UTC

@SirGabriel: at this point I think you should full claim as you obviously have some kind of additional information, which you didn't have to reveal at all but for some reason did (or are you mind-controlled somehow as the Aliens did in Smalltown?). Minestrone is currently in no danger of being lynched and if there's no connection between the two of you this doesn't make any sense at all as you would be always more sure of yourself being Town than anyone else. Or is it a vote-related power?

User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:40 pm UTC

emlightened's post makes me feel better for now, though I'm going to keep a closer eye on her.

Unvote emlightened
Vote Lawrencelot

I was going to vote for SirGabriel, but I can't see a scum player self-voting in this situation. His general participation has gone up as well, so I feel slightly better for now. I seriously considered voting moody, but I'm not sure I want to use the lynch on him as I think it would be good to see if a poisoned player does die after a full day/night. I am however slightly worried that moody might mess about with redirections again, so am no longer firmly in the camp of "a moody lynch is wasted lynch". From my earlier list of scummy players, that therefore leaves Lawrencelot.
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

User avatar
SirGabriel
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:54 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:46 pm UTC

I don't think it will help anything for me to claim. I will claim that I am town, if that makes a difference.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:46 pm UTC

@jimbobmacdoodle: Does it not concern you that moody7277 voted for Lawrencelot? Or do you think it is more likely that scum (knowing they would die anyways) wanted to make it look like their buddy was Town?

User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:40 pm UTC
Location: NP 811/The Present

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:00 pm UTC

Thanks Sabrar, I missed that point. However, I don't think it changes my opinion particularly, as there are reasons that scum would vote for their team-mate, including the one you pointed out and, for example, the fact that moody might have some sort of voting requirement that he's not allowed to openly disclose (or chose not to). There's also the possibility that moody isn't even scum, though I think he is. Certainly of the four people I had as possible scum, that reason is the weakest one to not vote for them.
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:40 pm UTC

@jimbobmacdoodle: thank you for your thought process.
@Minestrone: would you like to comment SirGabriel's action?


Return to “Mafia”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Madge and 5 guests