2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - Game Over

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crucialityfactor
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby crucialityfactor » Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:09 pm UTC

Misnomer wrote:@Jimbob: I found the tone of moody's earlier posts somewhat off - the whole 'let's just get back to random voting' thing struck me as odd, as did the serial killer suggestion, all the more so given a context of many posts but little content. I also agreed with CF's assessment of his FoS on CF as being a safe, non-committal move that looks less contentful than it actually is. Subsequent player post analysis by moody is mostly descriptive rather than analytical (my own entry being a notable exception). I suppose the main ping I get from moody, gut feelings aside, is the overall safeness of his content, which in the earlier stages of the content was borderline active lurking, though admittedly his more recent posts now seem to be showing a departure from this pattern. All in all, I'm happy with my vote.


Been re-reading the thread this morning, and I think this paragraph really sums up where I'm at with moody at the moment. I'm seeing a big pattern of him reacting/accusing someone and then pulling back when they call him out on it. Yes, he does have a history of playing like that, and it always pings me, but it just seems like it's happening over an over again in this first day. So I think whatever his role or alignment is it's making him more back and forth than usual. Like he's uneasy about people questioning him but he still wants to try and be seen as an attacker/scum hunter.

It's not a lot to go on yes, but I think for a day 1 lynch it's not a terrible reason.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:13 pm UTC

crucialityfactor wrote:So I think whatever his role or alignment is it's making him more back and forth than usual. Like he's uneasy about people questioning him but he still wants to try and be seen as an attacker/scum hunter.

My first reaction when he admitted that his meta looks slightly scummy was to tell him to get a new meta. :)
Still, if this is what he always does then why is it a reason to vote him for it?

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby crucialityfactor » Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:28 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
crucialityfactor wrote:So I think whatever his role or alignment is it's making him more back and forth than usual. Like he's uneasy about people questioning him but he still wants to try and be seen as an attacker/scum hunter.

My first reaction when he admitted that his meta looks slightly scummy was to tell him to get a new meta. :)
Still, if this is what he always does then why is it a reason to vote him for it?


Honestly, my preference would probably be lawrence at this point in time. I think he's done two or three posts that were fairly brief and super light on content. More just throwing accusations on other people. As well I think his reasoning is off and showing someone who is being very careless about reading and making conclusions. And is giving me the impression that he just wants someone dead and it's not really important who at this point. Like he's still trying to give off the everyone-should-follow-me/righteous-leader-of-townies attitude that he had in smallville, but not putting in the right amount of time or effort to do so. So it's coming off as really fake and forced.

Also, my vote for moody was also a vote for not lynching misnomer or madge. Who both I have better feelings about right now as far as scum/not scum. It looks like the train has rolled onto madge right now though, so the moody vote is pretty much irrelevant at this point.

So, basically, with the deadline so close it really seemed like the best thing to do was to choose among the group of three so my vote actually had an impact on what happened. To me moody looks the worst of the three despite his established meta.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 22, 2015 3:31 pm UTC

So it's past midnight for Suzaku, looks like we get another couple of hours to discuss things.
@SirGabriel: by my count you're the only who hasn't voted yet (apart from the lurker Djehutynakht who, based on his post history wasn't even active on the forums at all since the replacement). Please post before the deadline arrives and vote or at least give an expanation why you're abstaining.
@Lawrencelot: any comment on why you thought you replaced patzer?
On another note crucialityfactor looks more townie to me now, I don't think scum would try to defend either part so hard right now.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Suzaku » Tue Dec 22, 2015 4:57 pm UTC

Mod was, through unexpected meeting cancellation, able to attend corporate Christmas party.
Result: Mod is 'tired and emotional'. That would be, as emotional as a newt.

Upshot: you get a free extension until tomorrow morning when I'm sober enough to think about calling, and processing, night.

Cheers. *hic*
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Suzaku » Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:30 am UTC

Night falls.

Final Votals:

Minestrone - 1 (patzerDjehutynakht)
Misnomer - 1 (freezeblade)
freezeblade - 1 (Minestrone)
moody7277 - 4 (Misnomer, crucialityfactor, emlightened, Madge)
Madge - 5 (Snark, jimbobmacdoodle, mpolo, moody7277, Sabrar)
Snark - 1 (VytronLawrencelot)

Not Voting (1) - SirGabriel

Madge has been lynched and is dead.

It's now night until I finish processing night actions, so please don't post in the thread.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Suzaku » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:32 pm UTC

After deciding to brutally lynch Madge at sunset, the residents (denizens?) of Xkcdia enjoyed a quite night of watching reruns of 'Life is Beautiful', sleeping off the exhaustion of shopping for presents, or killing each other.

Madge was lynched. She was The Grim Reaper, a member of the Mafia.
Role details:
Spoiler:
Player - Madge
Role Name - Grim Reaper
Role Description - You are the Grim Reaper, the one who decides who lives and who dies.
Role Abilities - Once per day, you may PM the mod the name of another player. If that player is targeted with a kill during the following night, you will be able to choose if it succeeds or fails (please submit this choice in advance, if possible). Regardless of your choice, you will be informed if your target was targeted. Once during the game, you may post in-thread, "MAY THE GREAT LORD SUZAKU SPARE OUR LIVES" (must be all capitals; normal font size and color; not including quotation marks). In that case nobody will die the following night.


crucialityfactor was killed during the night. They were The Easter Bunny, a member of the Town.
Role Details:
Spoiler:
Player - crucialityfactor
Role Name - The Easter Bunny
Role Description - You're not sure how you got here but you do know you don't belong here. You're supposed to be surrounded by colorful eggs and warmth and candy but instead you're surrounded by presents and snow and evergreen trees. You're out of sync with time somehow, and as a result, things don't work on you like they do on others.
Role Abilities - You are unaffected by the Role Abilities of Christmas-themed roles.


Misnomer was killed during the night. He was Tracer Bullet, a member of the Town.
Role Details:
Spoiler:
Player - Misnomer
Role Name - Tracer Bullet
Role Description - You've been a private investigator for all of 6 months now, and you really haven't gotten the hang of it yet.
Role Abilities - Every night, you have a compulsive action that targets a single player other than yourself. Problem is, you're not really sure what you're going to do until you do it. You're also unsure if you plan on doing the same thing each night. If you fail to send in a person during the day, or if you select the lynch target and fail to provide a backup plan, your target will be decided randomly (but you will be told who you targeted).
Hidden Mechanics - Each night, the action taken is selected randomly and without replacement/duplication from Vigilante Kill, Alignment Cop, Doctor, Tracker, Watcher. Player will be told the following morning what action they tried to take and the results if applicable. On N6 and onward (after all the options have been used up), the action taken is always unblockable kill.


moody7277 has been poisoned.

11 alive, 6 to hammer.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Suzaku » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:33 pm UTC

Deadline TBA. Would people prefer to simply extend over Christmas, and put up with (probably) very low activity, or pause the game for a few days?
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Djehutynakht » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:42 pm UTC

I'd say an extension works. A pause gives us no choice in activity. An extension lets us adopt a low-activity level, but still allows us to participate to our satisfaction.

Hi all. My schedule has been a bit more hectic than I'd hope, but I am, still, in fact alive and kicking. I hope to read through and provide my insight very soon.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Misnomer » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:44 pm UTC

Bah, humbug...
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby mpolo » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:48 pm UTC

I watched crucialityfactor last night, and he was visited only by Misnomer.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:55 pm UTC

I have nothing to report from last night.

I am in favor of an extension, as I'll actually have more time than usual to spend on this game over Christmas break. I should be able to get a good analysis post in on the 26th.

moody, do you know anything about what the poison does to you?

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby emlightened » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:58 pm UTC

Don't really mind either way about the extension.
Bleb. Idk when I'm returning.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby crucialityfactor » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:58 pm UTC

Lame. Merry Christmas everyone!

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Snark » Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:00 pm UTC

Super town points to everyone voting for Madge: Snark, jimbobmacdoodle, mpolo, moody7277, Sabrar

That was a very close lynch, and mafia could have easily pushed it to moody so I trust mostly or all town to have been voting for Madge. moody especially seems townie in my eyes since they are poisoned, which seems more likely to be the work of anti-town.

I have some more to say shortly, but I'll start by saying that I think that my role has some hidden mechanics.

Extension would be nice.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:09 pm UTC

Super happy to have switched over to Madge at the end. freezeblade looks a bit suspicious for voting Misnomer, but it isn't damning.
Is there a conventional mechanic for being poisoned?

@Suzaku: I also would like to keep playing if possible with an extension, but I'm okay either way.

@mpolo: please give us your reason for watching crucialityfactor. The result seems to check out but it would mean that we got incredibly unlucky with Misnomer's ability. So there's the possibility of scum (not on the main team, but SK) wanting to lead us astray as there's noone left to challenge the claim (which is super convenient) and that way they could hide their own kill.

@Snark: I agree with 'super town points', however 2 townies at least voted for moody7277, so if he's Town as well then I think Mafia could have pushed him over. That makes him more suspicious in my eyes, will need to review though.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby moody7277 » Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:13 pm UTC

I have no idea about the effects of poisoning. I suspect I may succumb night 2 or 3, but vindication in the meantime is a nice present. The only voter on me still alive is emlightened, but my current opinion of her is uncertain. Kind of surprising that the wagon was at least half misled townies. Still think Lawrencelot is one of my top suspects, but the day is young.

*cough cough*
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby mpolo » Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:42 pm UTC

I watched the person that I considered towniest at the moment I watched him, hoping to catch scum. I unfortunately caught town killing him.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:01 pm UTC

@mpolo: thank you for the answer. I'm wary of early claims that could have far-reaching consequences since #HBC | YOLOSWAG tried to pull it off as an Alien in Smalltown, but your response is reasonable.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:17 pm UTC

Quick check-in to say I was roleblocked last night. Hopefully a bigger post tonight or tomorrow. For now, I have a film to go and watch...
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Minestrone » Wed Dec 23, 2015 5:03 pm UTC

An extension for christmas would definitely be helpful.

Mpolo's claim provides a helpful explanation for why cf died last night so in that sense I'm inclined to believe it for now. There's no reason that we can't revisit the truthfulness of his claim later.

Given that Misnomer was town and at least one scum was voting for them before the decision started to be between moody and Madge I feel vindicated in my suspicion of freezeblade although I do want to broaden my view a bit now that it's day 2 so I won't vote him yet. I think it's worth keeping in mind that given this is nightless, scum probably had daychat, which makes me wonder why they didn't try and coordinate their votes to save Madge if so. It's possible they agreed to bus her, although I'd rather test that idea with investigation results than lynches, so for today at least I'm against voting anyone on the Madge wagon.

Just going by the end of day votals, I'd say my 3 top suspects are emlightened (for being the only one not dead who voted moody), freezeblade (for voting Misnomer) and SirGabriel (for not voting at all! I'll have to go back and check if they had an excuse for this). I'll go back and look at these 3 more closely later.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Dec 23, 2015 10:02 pm UTC

I agree with the extension. I'm likely to be free at odd points throughout the coming days, so should have time to post and discuss things as needed.

FoS moody for the reasons stated in this post. On the other hand, I can't actually even follow my own logic from that post, so I will review this tomorrow when I'm a little less tired and a little more focused and able to concentrate.

A few thoughts why scum might not have pushed for moody more towards day end (any or all of these could be true):
1) moody is scum as well. This would of course mean that scum would almost certainly end up on one of those two wagons.
2) scum have some kind of voting restrictions.
3) scum are fractured between multiple factions.
4) scum were happy with how the votes were approaching the original deadline but got caught out by the fairly quick swing in voting to Madge.
Of course, the bussing option as noted by Minestrone is also a fairly good possibility, but I can't believe that they decided this from the outset and more likely they pushed it later on, therefore I give significant town points to Snark for voting Madge first.

I'm interested to see if anybody claims the poison effect on moody. If he is scum, this makes it more likely that the ability is town aligned. Actually, thinking about it, I think the ability is likely to be town-aligned regardless of his alignment. The reason being that several players were suspicious of moody yesterday, so one of them could have chosen to administer the poison, thinking that he is scum. Given the suspicions on moody, I doubt that scum would have targeted him (but wine), unless he was onto someone's case, but given that he was a relatively late voter on Madge, and his only previous bolded statements (not going to reread fully now) were a FoS on a townie and a random vote, I think the latter is unlikely.

This bit from Snark struck me though:
Snark wrote:moody especially seems townie in my eyes since they are poisoned, which seems more likely to be the work of anti-town
@Snark - Why do you think this is the case?

I'm willing to trust mpolo's claim for now, but I will be very suspicious of him come D3 if we have two kills again. Note that I am aware that kills could have been blocked etc so will be also reviewing his posting in that case obviously. Also it's worth noting that in Smalltown everybody seemed pretty convinced that there was only one Lone Wolf serial killer until after N4, due to multiple days in a row where kills collided, so the number of kills won't necessarily tell us how many factions there are.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Snark » Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:09 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:This bit from Snark struck me though:
Snark wrote:moody especially seems townie in my eyes since they are poisoned, which seems more likely to be the work of anti-town
@Snark - Why do you think this is the case?
Have you not played a ton or are you just asking obvious questions?

Poisoners are typically anti-town roles, sometimes mafia members (I believe Chain of Command had this) and sometimes independents (can't think of an example off my head). Don't ever remember seeing a town poisoner. If a mafia poisoned moody, that gives us a very very good chance that moody is not mafia. Obviously a -----

Never mind. Poisoner was probably a submitted role, then alignments were randomly assigned. My assumption that moody was less likely to be mafia given that they are poisoned is unfounded.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Thu Dec 24, 2015 7:29 am UTC

Evolution of the votes on the Madge/Misnomer/moody7277 trio:
Spoiler:
Note: I will put votals (not counting joke votes) in the above order

1. freezeblade votes Misnomer (0/1/0)
2. Snark votes Misnomer because he thinks that the Q&A was somehow a 'trap' and no useful information can be gained (ironic, that he claimed to have tried a similar trap in Smalltown). (0/2/0)
3. emlightened retracts joke vote but keeps FoS on Misnomer (0/2/0)
4. Misnomer votes moody7277 (0/2/1)
5. I vote moody7277 (0/2/2)
6. Snark unvotes Misnomer and votes patzer to encourage discussion (0/1/2)
7. Madge votes Misnomer (0/2/2)
8. mpolo votes Madge (1/2/2)

It is at this point that deadline is very near and people start asking for extension.

9. mpolo unvotes Madge and votes for Misnomer instead (0/3/2)
10. Snark unvotes patzer and votes Madge (1/3/2)

Extension is granted.

11. mpolo unvotes Misnomer (1/2/2)
12. jimbobmacdoodle votes Madge (2/2/2)
13. I unvote moody7277 (2/2/1)
14. mpolo votes Madge (3/2/1)

New deadline coming up.

15. I revote moody7277 (3/2/2)
16. crucialityfactor votes moody7277 (3/2/3)
17. emlightened votes for moody7277 (3/2/4)

Soft deadline is up.

18. Madge votes for moody7277 (3/2/5)
19. moody votes for Madge (4/2/5)
20. I unvote moody7277 and vote for Madge (5/2/4)
21. emlightened unvotes moody7277 (5/2/3)
22. emlightened revotes moody7277 (5/2/4)

Mod steps in and grants further extension, however noone posts for 12 hours and day ends.

@Snark: because of 6 and 10 all happening before all the drama and the Madge train, I'm convinced that you're not Mafia. Your posting style however troubles me. Did you really realize mid-post that your argument of moody7277 being Town because of the poison is not valid? If so, why did you not edit your post to get rid of the mildly offensive tone? Or was this one of your traps again to see who would agree with you? Why did you at first accuse Misnomer being scum due to laying traps when you also do so? Do you think Town really needs traps? Sorry for asking so much, you're the hardest for me to read.

@jimbobmacdoodle: because of the position of 12 in the timeline and no changes after I'm also convinced you're not Mafia.

@mpolo: I find 9 very suspicious, with the original deadline you would have ensured a townie lynch. However 14 happens at a time when the lines are not fully drawn and there's no indication yet that the final decision will be between Madge and moody7277. Therefore I think that you're not Mafia but I'm not 100% convinced.

re: emlightened: if moody7277 is Town, 17 looks like scum wanting to avoid a Madge lynch (and coordinating at the last minute, see time-gap between 17 and 18). 22 can be then seen as a last-ditch effort (and wanting to appear consistent). If moody7277 is scum then with 17 she had the option to set up a 3-way tie while staying consistent with her early read. However if random.org chooses Misnomer and he flips Town then there's little chance for her and Madge to avoid suspicion, so it might not have been worth it. Bussing a team-mate and trying to look townie could have been their choice here. Conclusion: looking scummy, will re-read later.

If being poisoned means that moody7277 is going to die today or tomorrow then we definitely don't want to waste a lynch on him (although could the poison be cured somehow, or could a doctor keep him alive? Does anyone have any previous experience with that?) His flip should provide us with a good context regarding D1 (D2 not so much as everybody is aware that he might die soon).

Need content from Djehutynakht (who promised to be active) and Lawrencelot (who disappeared after I pointed out that he replaced Vytron and not patzer). Also waiting for promised analysis from freezeblade, Minestrone and SirGabriel.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby mpolo » Thu Dec 24, 2015 8:29 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@mpolo: I find 9 very suspicious, with the original deadline you would have ensured a townie lynch.


I believe I stated that I wasn't thrilled with either of the two wagons and was only voting on the marginal utility of not having a tie that would be broken by random.org.

At present, we don't know what the effect of moody's poison is, but at least I can do nothing about it. (The chances of having an "unpoisoner" are probably pretty slim in a Secret Santa setup.) It occured to me that it might be nothing as well, though it is more likely that it will be fatal after a certain amount of time.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:11 am UTC

Sabrar - are you me in disguise? You regularly seem to do something I was about to do (in this case the vote timeline) :P

Regarding Moody as possible teammate for Madge, and to follow up on my FoS from yesterday:
Here Madge does votals, sees Moody as being the only one on 2 votes, and votes one of half a dozen or so people on one vote to "make him part of the conversation". The vote for Misnomer I already discussed, but essentially seems to be a flip in position. This seems to me to probably be a result of team discussion (for the record I believe scum likely have day chat, since I did as scum in nightless Smalltown), and decision that Misnomer is dangerous. However, if I were scum, I'd have thought it better to push an existing townie wagon more than try and start a new one, which suggested to me that moody is scum. On the other hand, it is possible that Madge was simply trying to look townie by voting for a different townie.

Relatedly, in the same post, and once or twice thereafter, Madge defends moody as saying that his playstyle is no different from normal. Although this is my third game with him, I haven't developed a meta-read for him yet. Can anyone else confirm or deny that moody is playing like he normally does?

Moody post summaries following re-read:
Spoiler:
Thinks Misnomer is an exotic alignment, and that he breadcrumbed something. Didn't agree that RVS was over and voted Vytron. Expects there to be crazy roles in abundance due to Secret Santa nature. Suggests possibility of serial killer SirG (meant in jest as clarified later). Role-claiming rule discussion. FoSses cf for "not knowing some of us are town". Defends FoS as not overreaction. Reacts to being bottom of Misnomer's list, calling it an overraction to his FoS. Detailed reads list, including cf as townie, "nervously neutral" Lawrencelot and Madge (for Madge "would scream scum if freezeblade, but not sure of Madge meta"), Misnomer townie (probably), no hard scum conclusions, and very little player analysis. Explains accusation of active lurking to Sabrar. Explains posting style and could be scummy meta. Not opposed to a Misnomer lynch. Explains "nervously neutral" as not having good meta read. Votes Madge for being opportunistic. Explains what he means by that (in particular "or I'm scum and she's bussing in order to look townie". Does not know effects of poisoning, opinion on emlightened uncertain and Lawrencelot still top of his suspects. Surprised that wagon was half misled townies.


Ok, I'm pretty confident that Moody is scum. Here's a list of reasons why in addition to the Madge voting pattern:
1. His "nervously neutral" point, given that he had others leaning scum who are completely new. This could just be being wishy washy town on its own (see my own reads lists with most people in the neutral camp), but Madge's flip doesn't really help him here.
2. He has Misnomer as a townie read, except for appearing to be SDK. I don't follow this train of thought, especially given that SDK's playstyle is pretty aggressive as town. Of course, a townie read is fine, except for the fact that he later says that he is not opposed to a Misnomer lynch. Given our knowledge of alignments, this looks like scum trying to encourage along a townie lynch wagon, except with the opportunity to say that he didn't want it later on.
3. His reads posts is very low on content and has almost everyone in the neutral camp (but again see 1 regarding wishy washiness).
4. Not a solid point, but his comment in response to Sabrar about Madge potentially bussing him as scum reads oddly to me if he is town. Without context, I'd have this as very scummy, but the context does bring the comment away from that end a bit.
5. Again a minor point, and could have come from a town player, who I'm misreading, but his comment on his scummy meta pinged me slightly along the lines of downplaying peoples scummy reads on him and hoping that they'll drop them.
6. Other gut feelings from the way he posts that I can't easily explain, but I'm hoping others share.

At this point, I'd usually vote moody, but I also agree that the poison effect is likely to be fatal, so I don't see a particular reason to lynch him for now, as most of my arguments don't hold if he's some kind of single scum team member, since he wouldn't know the alignment of anybody else (unless he is the only surviving team-mate of Madge, but in that case there'll be another scum faction somewhere, I'm sure). The only reason to lynch him would be if he were the sole member of a scum team, to remove their factional ability. If the poison disappears or he doesn't die soon (at least before D4, possibly even if he doesn't die N2), we should lynch him then.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:16 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar - are you me in disguise? You regularly seem to do something I was about to do (in this case the vote timeline) :P

I was wondering the same thing. I planned to analyze the possible reasons why scum didn't bus moody7277 when I noticed that you ninjad me by like 5 minutes. :)
I mostly agree with your list, to me the most likely explanation is still that moody7277 is scum, unfortunately the others cannot be completely disregarded. Might come back to it later if necessary.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby moody7277 » Thu Dec 24, 2015 3:37 pm UTC

jimbob is really tunnelling me, and as mpolo pointed out it's mostly wasted effort since I'm already on my way out. I would suggest that his time and energy could be better spent than building a case on a dead guy.

*cough cough*

re the (other) already dead:

cf- despite my reaction to his joke, I did find him townie on a detailed read.
Madge- turns out I was right to be nervous about her.
Misnomer- in response to jimbob's point 2, I actually didn't have a strong read on him. That was the whole point of the comparison to SDK, who I have a heck of a time figuring out.

above included to show that I surprisingly had a good read on a couple of people.

live players:

DJ- still no data. the lack may in itself be telling

emlightened- only live player left on my bandwagon. Based on her behavior as seen in Sabrar's vote summary, I'm getting a scummy read on her now.

freezeblade- nothing to change my town read on him

jimbob- the tunnelling is most likely an overzealous townie, but since I haven't seen anything else from him it's hard to say.

Lawr- given that my other nervous read turned out to be scum, I'm putting him there as well.

Minestrone- no change from slightly town.

mpolo- tone and early Madge vote bump him to townie.

Sabrar- behavior late D1, with a proper amount of uncertainty, puts him at townie.

SirG- no change from neutral to slightly scummy.

Snark- Latest post tries to be thoughtful beyond the celebratory post opening the day. silghtly townie

Vote: Lawrencelot
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Minestrone » Thu Dec 24, 2015 6:17 pm UTC

Ok so reread analysis time:

Freezeblade: hasn't posted in a long time, including at all today. My opinion on them is pretty much unchanged, in that I think they're scummy, for active lurking and now for lurking lurking.

SirGabriel: Low content, excuse is lack of things to do on Day 1. Promises more today, specifically on the 26th. Scummy, but final judgement deferred until then.

Emlightened: Early suspicion of misnomer. Kept saying he felt third party, which bothers me because picking out scum is unreliable enough D1, let alone 3rd party, so claiming to be able to tell is weird, plus calling someone third party is potentially a good way for scum to push a lynch on a non-scum and look less suspicious when they flip non-scum. Very wishy washy on Madge vs moody on the end of the day, including this line:
emlightened wrote:Sorry, but I genuinely don't see Madge as scummy, but I think moody might be.

which really rubs me the wrong way because if you don't think she's scummy why apologize? This came right after briefly unvoting moody, as if deciding whether or not to bus. Also had a slip at one point where they say they voted for Madge when presumably they mean moody, although I don't know if that's suspicious in a vacuum.

I'll wait to put down a vote until freezeblade posts today and SirG makes their promised post but I'll probably vote either emlightened or Freezeblade.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Snark » Thu Dec 24, 2015 7:08 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Snark: because of 6 and 10 all happening before all the drama and the Madge train, I'm convinced that you're not Mafia. Your posting style however troubles me. Did you really realize mid-post that your argument of moody7277 being Town because of the poison is not valid? If so, why did you not edit your post to get rid of the mildly offensive tone? Or was this one of your traps again to see who would agree with you? Why did you at first accuse Misnomer being scum due to laying traps when you also do so? Do you think Town really needs traps? Sorry for asking so much, you're the hardest for me to read.
i didn't edit because I was showing my previous reasoning and that I realized my mistake mid post. Wasn't a trap - was what I genuinely thought at first.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Snark » Thu Dec 24, 2015 7:10 pm UTC

Mpolo did the mod specifically tell you that only one person visited cf? Or is it possible for you to get told only one person when multiples visit?
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby mpolo » Fri Dec 25, 2015 7:57 am UTC

Snark wrote:Mpolo did the mod specifically tell you that only one person visited cf? Or is it possible for you to get told only one person when multiples visit?


No idea about hidden mechanics, but the role PM says that I will be informed of all players who visited my target. I was only informed of one, hence my conclusion.

Merry Christmas, all!
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Dec 25, 2015 2:10 pm UTC

In response to comments about my meta: As I said, I was busy with Smalltown. Trying to pull off a werewolf win at that stage in the game was not easy, and jimbob can attest from the time that we were the only surviving werewolves that I was constantly rethinking and revising my strategy. Also, I think most if not all of the games I’ve played in the past were while I was either at school with plenty of free time or at work without a lot of work that needed to be done. I’m off Christmas to New Year’s, but other than that, most of December and January I’m working and there’s a lot that needs to be done at work, so don’t expect me to post as much as usual.

And now, the promised analysis post (a day early because I woke up several hours before everyone else and couldn’t get back to sleep):

patzer/DJ:
Misnomer’s play is not typical of scum but could be third party.
Doesn’t think jimbob’s cautiousness makes him scum.
Joke votes Minestrone.
patzer is replaced, DJ hasn’t posted any content yet.

emlightened:
Random votes Misnomer.
Says nothing scummy is happening yet, thinks Misnomer is probably third party but possibly scum. Removes joke vote but puts an FoS on Misnomer.
Says his FoS on Misnomer was based on Misnomer’s claim that all the roles in this game were completely made up by the players, which emlightened found odd (I don’t think Misnomer’s statement was odd, and out of our 3 dead players 2 fall in the “completely made up” category while the last is an odd combination of existing roles. But I don’t think emlightened’s FoS is scummy.)
Says cf is townie.
Analyzes all players with votes on them, votes moody for what seem to be good reasons.
Analyzes Madge again, says she is not scummy, keeps vote on moody.

freezeblade:
Votes Misnomer because of a statement taken out of context (which was a perfectly reasonable statement in context). Never responds to Misnomer’s response.
Expects a lot of indies in this game.
Thinks redirector is the most likely of the standard roles to be in the game, followed by cop and doctor.
No real content, but claims that is consistent with his D1 meta.

jimbob:
Thinks my ranking of alignments is reasonable. Thinks there aren’t any non-typical factions in the game.
Extensive analysis post. (Normally I would give townie points for detailed analysis, but this is consistent with how jimbob played as a werewolf in Smalltown. Nothing stood out to me in his analysis.)
FoS on me for by posting habits this game being different from my meta.
Claims moody is likely scum on a team with Madge, would vote him if he wasn’t already poisoned.

Vytron/Lawrencelot:
Vytron never posted.
CF looks scummy, freezeblade’s complaining about D1 is scummy but typical of him, Snark looks townie for disagreeing with CF.
Feels detached from the game.
Claims Misnomer looks scummy for saying “If you're asking me how townie I feel I've come across as so far this game, then I'd say leaning town with a fair chance of being third party” (I can see where Lawrencelot is coming from, but I disagree).
Claims to have replaced patzer, even though he actually replaced Vytron. (Possibly jester?)

Minestrone:
Votes freezeblade for his Misnomer vote.
FoS Sabrar and freezeblade for thinking non-sane cops are likely.
Explains why the possibility of insane cops is problematic even with the possibility of lying scum cops.
Brief analysis post of his top suspects (emlightened, freezeblade, and myself).

moody:
A lot of short posts with no real content near the beginning.
Analysis post. Says cf is townie, Madge is “nervously neutral”, unsure about Misnomer but includes him in list of votables. Thinks freezeblade is town (seems odd to me – freezeblade has posted very little content, I don’t see how you could say better about him than “nothing he said is scummier than his normal meta”.
Votes Madge.
Claims to know nothing about the effects of his poisoning (probably true).
D2 analysis post (nothing particularly interesting).

mpolo:
Thinks setup likely includes 4-5 scum (mafia + SK), 1-2 independents, maybe 2-3 masons.
Argues that jimbob is likely town based on a bad use of statistics (I’m not familiar enough with mpolo’s math skills to know if this could be a legitimate mistake, so I’m going to call it slightly jestery).
Later admits that he was misusing statistics, implies it was a genuine mistake.
Short analysis post, votes emlightened for lurking.
Unvotes emlightened after emlightened posts.
Votes Madge. Switches to voting Misnomer, then back to Madge.
Claims that only Misnomer visited CF (possible, but also a relatively safe claim for scum. Could be a SK trying to hide the fact that there is a SK in the game.

Sabrar:
Non-sane cop is most likely, then made-up roles, then redirector. Claims rules forbid godfather/miller.
Asks Misnomer multiple questions about his gut-feelings-based town-to-scum ranking.
Analysis post: Madge is possibly scum, Misnomer is neutral leaning town, disagrees with CF’s analysis but doesn’t take a guess at his alignment.
Votes moody.
Unvotes, votes Madge.

Snark:
Splits everyone into groups randomly for no apparent reason (odd, but not necessarily scummy).
Doesn’t like ‘lynch the lurker’.
Analysis post based on his random groupings rather than individuals.
Votes Madge.
Town points to everyone voting for Madge (including himself). (Only makes sense if moody turns out not to be scum, which at this point seems unlikely).
Claims poisoner is probably a mafia role, later realizes it was probably a submitted role and thus could be any alignment.


I’m reading Minestrone as townie. I have moody as scummy, since the mafia didn’t try to get him lynched in Madge’s place, but he’s been poisoned so I’m not going to vote for him. And based on moody’s odd claim that freezeblade is town (as well as freezeblade’s complete lack of content except for his overreaction to Misnomer), I’m also suspicious of freezeblade. mpolo and Snark are slightly scummy. Everyone else I have to put at neutral for the moment.

Vote: freezeblade

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby Sabrar » Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:34 am UTC

2 quick points before heading out for the day.
- I re-read emlightened and I think there's a possibility that she's newbie town instead of scum if moody7277 flips Mafia. Therefore if there's another good candidate to lynch then I probably won't vote for her today.
- SirGabriel's post manages to hit all the points that I find suspicious in an analysis (stated here). Very short recaps of some hand-picked posts, no actual reasoning behind the reads (except on moody7277 but that's a safe play), missing a lot of context. Definitely looking scummy right now.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Dec 27, 2015 12:25 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:- SirGabriel's post manages to hit all the points that I find suspicious in an analysis (stated here). Very short recaps of some hand-picked posts, no actual reasoning behind the reads (except on moody7277 but that's a safe play), missing a lot of context. Definitely looking scummy right now.

It was Christmas morning, I didn't have time to explain my reasoning after doing the analysis. And on rereading, my implicit arguments weren't as clear as I thought, so I'll make them explicit:
Minestrone was attacking people who were trying to sow distrust of investigation results. Scum wouldn't want us to trust investigations, so Minestrone's attack on that is the towniest thing I've seen all game.
Moody is still alive when scum could have easily gotten him lynched in place of Madge.
Freezeblade has no real content, which is scummy in itself, plus he's being defended by Moody, who is probably scum, despite his complete lack of content.
Mpolo's claim is a little too convenient: mpolo and Misnomer happened to pick the same target, and Misnomer got really unlucky? It's possible, but I'm not convinced.
Snark is quick to give town points to Madge voters, including himself, because scum could easily have switched to Moody. But this argument has no weight if Moody is also scum.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Suzaku » Sun Dec 27, 2015 1:42 pm UTC

I trust everyone had a great Christmas.

Votals:

Lawrencelot - 1 (moody7277)
freezeblade - 1 (SirGabriel)

Not Voting (9) - Djehutynakht, freezeblade, Minestrone, emlightened, Snark, jimbobmacdoodle, mpolo, Sabrar, Lawrencelot

No deadline is currently set, but I would like to start D3 before new year if possible. I will see how posting picks up after the weekend.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby mpolo » Mon Dec 28, 2015 8:40 am UTC

Sir Gabriel is starting to sound like he's grasping at things to attack. It's suspicious that a watcher saw an action take place? Considering that I expect everybody to have some kind of action, the chances of catching at least one action are pretty high indeed. Quoting his own post:

Scum wouldn't want us to trust investigations


I do think that he's right that moody looks a bit fishy after the way the wagons went, UNLESS Snark is right, and everybody on the Madge wagon was town (which is practically unimaginable luck). Or the scum on that wagon got busy for the holidays, I guess.

Nonetheless, my general feeling about SirGabriel has taken a hit.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:32 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:Sir Gabriel is starting to sound like he's grasping at things to attack. It's suspicious that a watcher saw an action take place? Considering that I expect everybody to have some kind of action, the chances of catching at least one action are pretty high indeed. Quoting his own post:

Scum wouldn't want us to trust investigations


I do think that he's right that moody looks a bit fishy after the way the wagons went, UNLESS Snark is right, and everybody on the Madge wagon was town (which is practically unimaginable luck). Or the scum on that wagon got busy for the holidays, I guess.

Nonetheless, my general feeling about SirGabriel has taken a hit.

Note that I said slightly scummy. An analysis post where I declare everyone neutral isn't helpful to anyone. And no, it's not suspicious that a watcher saw an action take place, it's suspicious that someone claimed to be a watcher and claimed to have seen one of the now-dead town, whose ability has a small chance of killing, kill the other now-dead town. If scum is responsible for the kill, then it's likely no one is alive who can make a counterclaim, making it a relatively safe claim. But if you are in fact town, does the information town got from your reveal justify revealing yourself to scum as a watcher? Probably not. Again, that in itself is not worthy of a vote, I'll just be keeping a closer eye on you.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Dec 28, 2015 2:07 pm UTC

I started writing this post earlier today, but had to take a break and have since been ninja'ed by SirG, who has raised a good point. I've left my old comments in since the points are still broadly valid.

<written before SirG's latest post>
I'm back with time to post again after various family activities these past few days. Firstly, sorry moody if I was tunnelling you. If anybody has any advice on how to avoid tunnelling, I'll find it helpful. In the meantime, I don't see any point in going back over his posts again due to the poisoning effect as pointed out.

I saw SirG's post come in on Christmas Day, and noted that it was very low in content as well. I'm glad that he has posted a more detailed explanation of his main reads, and they seem consistent with his initial post. However, I'm slightly concerned about his vote for freezeblade, with the reasoning simply that he has no real content. His lack of D1 content is consistent with what little I have played with him, so I don't have an issue with it. However, I do expect more today. His other point that "he's being defended by moody, who is scummy, therefore freezeblade must also be scum" is incredibly weak, in my opinion. A scum defending a townie is hardly unheard of after all - it's a reasonable way of trying to persuade the townie in question that the defender is on his side. Similarly, we don't know moody is scum yet, so it's a little early to be using that sort of logic.

Regarding mpolo and his claim, I'm inclined to believe it for now, but would suggest that he might be a good investigation target for someone, so we can find out whether we can trust his claims. Of course, he'll be high on the scum hit list, I imagine at this point, since a watcher is a good way of finding scum or confirming investigations. Hmmm... thinking about it, I can't believe that anybody submitted a plain "watcher" ability, so I suspect there's something else behind that claim, but I'm still happy to believe it for now. @Mpolo - I think to explain the reason your claim is seen as convenient is that Misnomer's action would have had to have been "vigilante kill" for your claim to make sense, as well as the fact that he had to select crucialityfactor as his target, and neither element can be checked by anyone. It's possible that this is the case, and like Minestrone said earlier, it helpfully explains the second kill, but the chances of it happening are not that great (1 in 5, just for the relevant action being selected). As an aside, even if mpolo is telling the truth, it does not guarantee that Misnomer is the killer of crucialityfactor, since I could see a player being immune to being watched (e.g. an invisible man).
</written before SirG's latest post>

Ok, SirG actually makes a good point about mpolo's claim. Before I make a more decisive judgement on the matter, @Mpolo, why did you make your claim?

Another comment about SirG, that I couldn't post earlier because it relied on my knowledge of SirG's alignment from Smallotown. I felt that his behaviour was somewhat different from in Smalltown, where he was trying to look super townie, and did a reasonable job in my opinion. I don't get the same vibe from him this game. There could be a few reasons for that. Firstly, it could simply be that I don't know his alignment this game, unlike in Smalltown. Secondly, it could be because he was preoccupied with the end of Smalltown, which I can fully understand given how I was feeling and I was dead by this point! The third possibility is that he is a different alignment from Smalltown, i.e. not mafia/werewolf/other similar faction. My instinct says the third is most likely. My initial read had him as scum, and as I haven't seen enough from him to change that yet, I therefore think he might be a serial killer, although I'm far from certain at this point as it leaves open the question why there was only one kill last night (explainable by a roleblock, double kill of Misnomer, protection etc etc).

I'm sitting down to watch a film with the family, so I'm going to leave looking at anybody else until later.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D2 - Death Dead?

Postby mpolo » Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:10 pm UTC

I claimed simply because I had information that helped town to see something of the setup. In general more information helps town.
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