Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

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Suzaku
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby Suzaku » Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:48 am UTC

Just a quickie to explain why I don't necessarily think NL is the best bet for us in this game, where normally it would be.

Generally, in a vanilla game in our circumstances (3/1 MYLO), if we lynch today, we have a one-in-four (one-in-three from the POV of each townie) chance of lynching wrong and losing. NL changes that to one-in-three (or one-in-two, from town POV), assuming scum NKs. As Carlignton says, it means 3-player LYLO, but it's a trade between a worse situation and better odds of getting out of it. This, of course, does not account for any addition information that could swing the odds one way or another.

In our situation, we have two confirmed townies (me and Minestrone), so our choice is already one-in-two (or 100% for whichever of Carlington and Mathilda is town). I can't see that scum would allow the odds to become better tomorrow after an NL (BTW, scum, if you can't see how to achieve this you can surrender and we'll lynch you painlessly). So it's probably better to make a properly debated decision today, rather than just drag it out until D5.

I have no objection to Mathilda and Carlington voting for each other (indeed, they have no other options). And unless Minestrone and I both vote for one of them, there's no danger of a scum quickhammer.

I have an idea who I think is the better scum pick at the moment, but I'd prefer not to say anything for fear of potentially influencing Minestrone. I'm also far from sure (especially given my record so far this game).

I will come back later with specific questions for Mathilda and Carlington; in the meantime, why should I vote for the other one and why not for you? You need to convince both Minestrone and me.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby Carlington » Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:23 pm UTC

Vote: Mathilda

Is "because I know she can't be town" answer enough? :lol:

Can I be completely honest? I'm reading and re-reading the thread looking for reasons, and I'm honestly struggling for them. Apart from what I've just posted, that she hasn't posted any reads or indeed any serious votes for the entire game, she's played really well and I've played really poorly, and I feel bad about the position I've left us in as town. If I were in your shoes, suffice it to say that I know who looks scummier. Most of Mathilda's content is from D1, so I'm going to focus there for now - feel free to ask me about specifics, the both of you. Looking over it, there's only one really big contentful post I can point to, which is this one. It's a fairly solid post, and the main reason I'm calling attention to it is to point out the hedging language that's used throughout, and the large amount of describing what's happened rather than actually commenting on it - it makes the post look really contentful without risking any controversy or slips. After that post her rate of producing content really drops off, and she falls into the background having left a strong town impression and then not doing much to shift it.
The other piece of evidence I guess I can point to right now is Sabrar's reads - he has her at the top of his town list here and this doesn't change.

I'll say this: If I were scum, I wouldn't have thought of withholding the kill. I would have killed Minestrone as scum, because they already saw me as scummy enough to throw a vote my way. There's no point killing Suzaku for being the cop, because the game ends today anyway, NK'ing Mathilda would be obvious suicide and withholding an NK as scum!Carlington doesn't make any sense at all - now I've got to talk my way into both of your good books, while competing against a Mathilda who reads as decently towny.
As Mathilda, on the other hand, it makes perfect sense to withhold the kill. NK'ing me would be suicide, natch, NK'ing Suzaku makes more sense than NK'ing Minestrone, because Minestrone is reading me as scum (but really either would be a fine play) - but if she withholds the kill, everyone is off-balance at day's start because we weren't expecting it, the job of winning over the vote isn't too tricky because she's already got at least one confirmed town basically onside and can use their help in convincing the other, and even if she doesn't manage to do more than tying the lynch, she can NK Suzaku N4 anyway and coast home.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby Mathilda » Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:02 pm UTC

(I was in the middle of posting this then went off to lunch and I've seen that Carlington has since posted.)

Carlington wrote:My turn now - I spoke just now about how good scum play involves avoiding saying anything controversial or remarkable, and blending into the background nicely. As such, I find it interesting that you've managed to go this entire game without providing any reads, or indeed without having any votes placed at end of day, except for Sabrar for whom there was no redemption and thus no risk. How is it that you can have had no opinions strong enough for you to vote?


My very first post was an extensive read list on page 2 when I voted for ajh.

This was my first game on this forum and I learnt the hard way when joining mafiascum that you need to become familiar with how everyone plays it. Even then, I was rather taken aback not only by how much talk there was of game mechanics, but that it seemed to be the accepted thing to do. Sabrar's very first post set this tone and everyone fell in with it. On any other forum this would have seen Sabrar insta-lynched so I knew that things worked differently here.

Also everyone is very polite and nice and understands that it is just a game so I was and still am rather hesitant to apply any pressure. Mafia can feel really personal and tensions can run very high. It's actually a nice feature of this forum that people are so civil and I don't want to ruin it. It is after all just a game :)

The mistake I made was not to revote afh after I was told that my previous vote was invalid. But I don't normally vote until I am really confident anyway so I decided that just the threat of a vote was enough to apply pressure. Normally on other forums there is a lot more content to go on, a lot more activity and plenty of chance to put a vote on later. I can't believe that we're only page 5. On one of my home sites that I play on they have 24 hour phases and a thread can continue for 100 pages.

So really all I could do was to try to examine people's motivations when they post to figure out who was scum and to gently steer the conversation towards this and away from generic game mechanics.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby Mathilda » Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:38 pm UTC

oops forgot

Vote: Carlington

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby Minestrone » Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:54 pm UTC

I agree NL will do us no good today. I don't have a very good idea of who to vote for. Both of the candidates seem to be mostly done making their cases so I'd like to hear suzaku's opinion. Mine is in a spoiler below in case Suzaku would prefer to write their own thoughts down before worrying about my thoughts:

Spoiler:
Mathilda's content is overall better but Sabrar's content was good too. Still with so relatively little to go on lynching the lurkier player seems like the better bet. Also I don't like how interested Carlington seems in the lack of a kill. It's strategically pretty neutral in this situation, unless you wanted to convince town that the other person would be more likely to do it than you, which is exactly what Carlington is doing. It doesn't feel very townie to be bothered by it enough to comment on it in multiple posts.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby Suzaku » Tue Feb 02, 2016 2:26 pm UTC

Sorry for the lack of post today. I've been helping my wife with some problems she's had, and I now need to get some sleep.

We still have about 38 hours to deadline, so I will be back with my thoughts and a vote tomorrow.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby Suzaku » Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:41 pm UTC

OK, I've had a good long think about this and reread both our potential suspects in isolation.

I definitely found Mathilda the townier of the pair on D1 and, to a lesser extent, on D2. She certainly did have a good analysis and reads post on D1, but going back and rereading D2, there's not much there.
Carlington, on the other hand, has I feel, gotten better as the game has progressed. Part of this is likely explained by getting over illness, so overall I have a better feeling about him at this point.

Particularly, I prefer his response to my catch of Sabrar's 'mistake' in posting about his Gojoe thread comment. Mathilda's response fits with Sabrar's speed self-lynch, making it feel like a coordinated scum plan to deny town further information. (BTW - a massive mea culpa for voting first and enabling this if it was Sabrar's plan, and massive props to Sabrar if it wasn't but he still managed to take advantage.)

Carlington's response was much more what I would have expected from a cautious townie.

So at this point, I'm about ready to vote for Mathilda, but I'm very, very far from being confident in that.

Anyway, I'll put this up now; feel free to comment or respond. I'm going to read Minestrone's spoiler next, and see if that alters my view.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby Suzaku » Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:54 pm UTC

Response to Minestrone:
Have you read Mathilda's D2 posts in isolation? They seems very active-lurky to me. She essentially doesn't provide a single read, other than suggesting that she didn't really find emlightened scummy on D1. And that's with a pretty high post count, even accounting for multiple posts when she was still being moderated.

I disagree that focussing on the lack of NK is scummy on Carlington's part; it certainly surprised the heck out of me, as I expected to wake up dead on D4. I can definitely see where you're coming from in that his in-depth analysis could have been pre-planned by scum!Carlington who withheld, though.

What do you think of their reactions (and Sabrar's reaction) after I voted for him yesterday?
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby Suzaku » Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:56 pm UTC

EBWOP:
Deadline is lunch time for me tomorrow, so I'll refrain from voting, as I'll certainly be able to tomorrow.
If I were to vote now, I'd vote Mathilda.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby Mathilda » Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:59 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:I'll say this: If I were scum, I wouldn't have thought of withholding the kill. I would have killed Minestrone as scum, because they already saw me as scummy enough to throw a vote my way. There's no point killing Suzaku for being the cop, because the game ends today anyway, NK'ing Mathilda would be obvious suicide and withholding an NK as scum!Carlington doesn't make any sense at all - now I've got to talk my way into both of your good books, while competing against a Mathilda who reads as decently towny.
As Mathilda, on the other hand, it makes perfect sense to withhold the kill. NK'ing me would be suicide, natch, NK'ing Suzaku makes more sense than NK'ing Minestrone, because Minestrone is reading me as scum (but really either would be a fine play) - but if she withholds the kill, everyone is off-balance at day's start because we weren't expecting it, the job of winning over the vote isn't too tricky because she's already got at least one confirmed town basically onside and can use their help in convincing the other, and even if she doesn't manage to do more than tying the lynch, she can NK Suzaku N4 anyway and coast home.


If I was scum I don't see how it would help me to hold back on the night kill. Putting everyone off balance wouldn't actually help me in any way. It would be far better to kill the one less convinced that you are scum. All I would need would be one vote.

You are though making a big thing of it so all I can assume is that you either forgot or it was some plan to make it look like I am scum.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby ConMan » Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:34 am UTC

Friendly mod reminder that deadline is in about 3 1/2 hours.

Current votes:

Mathilda - 1 - Carlington
Carlington - 1 - Mathilda
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby Minestrone » Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:28 am UTC

I see what you mean about Mathilda's active-lurkiness. Carlington posted more reads, although his reads were wrong (specifically, he voted fro Esthr) but I don't like that Mathilda attacked Esthr without actually voting. As far as the reaction to your catch, I don't think Mathilda's reaction was scum trying to end the day fast. It was Carlington's vote, not Mathilda's, that dropped the hammer. It's consistent with scum realizing their buddy has been caught and not wanting to defend them at all, but also with town seeing an airtight argument that someone is scum and agreeing with it. Honestly I don't know who to vote for either. It feels like a coin flip. If I vote now and you disagree, you can't change anything without tying things up, whereas if I don't vote your vote will lynch your choice by plurality when deadline hits. Sorry for doing this, but I'm going to hold back my vote and let you decide. I accept full responsibility if you choose wrongly because I certainly wouldn't have known any better than you.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby Suzaku » Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:55 am UTC

It was actually Sabrar's self-vote, after Mathilda's, that hammered him. Carlington's vote (and post) were after the hammer.
Which all makes me think that Sabrar's 'slip' was a plan in the first place and that Mathilda was in on it.

By the way, Minestrone, you are putting this all in the hands of a guy who hasn't really made a good call all game :lol:

Anyway, my apologies if I'm wrong, but:
Vote: Mathilda

That's L-1 with 2 hours to go.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby ConMan » Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:02 am UTC

That's deadline. Mathilda has been lynched 2-1. Flavour is on its way.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D4 - Curiouser ...

Postby ConMan » Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:21 am UTC

Final votes:

Mathilda - 2 - Carlington, Suzaku
Carlington - 1 - Mathilda


As Mathilda and Carlington traded blows, insults and votes (though not necessarily in that order), Suzaku and Minestrone sat and pondered in agony over the decision in front of them. They knew this was the final decision to be made, and it would seal the fate of the town one way or another.

While not completely convinced, as the sun fell Suzaku finally decided to cast his vote for Mathilda. Had she been a little too cautious in her accusations? Did that outweigh Carlington's mistaken cries for Esthr's blood? And did any of it have to do with the lack of a mafia death last night? There was only one way to find out.

Just as they were about to take Mathilda to the gallows, she reached between her shoulderblades and pulled out a small pistol, which she pointed at the group. "You got me guys, but I'm not going down that easily. You can have this backwater town, but you won't get me!"

Suzaku reached for his own gun, thankful that he was on duty today. But Mathilda was already running, and apparently she had been prepared for the eventuality because a black car pulled up and she jumped right in. It sped off, Suzaku firing at the tires but unable to slow it down.

Carlington, Minestrone and Suzaku hoped that was the last time the mafia would trouble their quiet little town, and they immediately set about petitioning the local government to send them a new doctor, preferably one who worked weekends.


Mathilda was the final Mafia member. Town has won!

Apologies for some of the clunky deadline handling, the last of which did put Mathilda in a tricky place (she had submitted a kill for someone already dead, and she didn't get to see my request for a new target until after the new day had already started). Mafia played a good game early on, and if not for Sabrar's slip-up it may well have wound up a perfect scum play.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

Postby Sabrar » Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:37 am UTC

Congratulations to Town, it was a very good game!

@Suzaku: you give me way too much credit, my mistake was completely unintentional. In hindsight once you turned out to be Cop I should have stayed quiet but I invested too much into thinking through all the scenarios and planning out my false-claim to quit.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

Postby emlightened » Thu Feb 04, 2016 7:14 am UTC

That was a nice game, even if I did get lynched on D1. Thank you, Sabrar, for slipping up :P; I don't think town could have won without it.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:41 am UTC

Yay, my first win! Although to be honest, I didn't exactly help much beyond somehow making scum think I was the cop and so drawing the night kill! Good job anyway town! By day 3, I was convinced scum were set for an easy victory. Thankfully Suzaku wasn't as convinced as I was that Mathilda was town.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

Postby Mathilda » Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:02 am UTC

Apologies Sabrar for messing up the final night kill. I had been trying to shift a cold for an entire week and basically had to spend most of the day in bed. If I had been able to give it the time it deserved then I would have killed Suzaku.

Good job town, you played well.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

Postby Sabrar » Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:48 am UTC

No need to apologize, it was my mistake in the first place that put you in that situation.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

Postby Suzaku » Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:22 pm UTC

GG everyone.
Thanks for running this, ConMan, and thanks to everyone for playing. I really enjoyed it.

But sheesh, scum drove this one right down to the wire.

@Sabrar - The sheer speed with which you and Mathilda followed up on my picking up your slip, plus that it couldn't have happened if I hadn't voted, and that I voted partly because Mathilda asked why I wasn't (OK, why we weren't) just kicked my 'Scum are playing me like a fiddle' paranoia into overdrive.

I very nearly investigated you, because you were reading so townie that I figured if you were scum we'd never catch you. Only reason I didn't was I thought that town!Sabrar was a pretty good NK target, and my worst-case scenario was surviving but only having investigated the dead guy. I picked Minestrone 'cause he was my top scum pick at the time, and clearing/catching him was a reasonable 'next best'.

As you might have seen, I'm not the beat at reading people in this game (I suffer from both second guessing and confirmation bias), but 'mechanical' slips will rarely get past me if I'm properly awake.

Oh, and @Esthr - I can provide video of the hat eating if you want :D
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

Postby Carlington » Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:38 pm UTC

GG all!

I have been watching the thread intently since my last post, but I felt that nothing I could say would help any further. It's been a tense time (and leaving voting until right before deadline accentuated things! :P )

Mafia played a very very good game, if it hadn't been for Sabrar's slip and Mathilda's missed vote I think they'd have had it. Even after the slip, had Suzaku been NK'd they'd have had it I think. But I also think I thought I looked scummier than I really looked.

To be honest, I really would never have come up with something as devious as withholding the kill to try and pin reasons for withholding a kill on an opponent - if something requires that level of clever, it's a pretty safe bet that it's not a scumplay from me. :lol:

Thanks Conman for modding (and being in my timezone) and thanks all for playing.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

Postby Esthr » Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:00 pm UTC

Great game, everyone. Thank you ConMan for modding. Props to team scum for their play on D1 and 2, and congratulations to team town for turning that around on D3 and managing a win.

Suzaku, I can hardly blame you for misreading on D2 given how bad my scum reads were, but hey I'm not going to turn down a hat-eating video.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

Postby Minestrone » Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:50 pm UTC

Good game everyone, and good choice Suzaku!


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