Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

For your simulated organized crime needs.

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ConMan
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Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

Postby ConMan » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:05 pm UTC

Alternating 9P Mafia


Budget cutbacks hit the town of Randallsburg hard. Both the hospital and the police station could only afford to operate every other day. The mafia, despite claims by some members of the public, weren't run by the government, so they had no such restrictions. And of course the gallows was always freely accessible - and usable, should the townsfolk decide to engage in their favourite pasttime of forming a lynchmob.

Rules:
1. Do not talk about the game outside this thread.
2. DO NOT TALK ABOUT THE GAME OUTSIDE THIS THREAD.
3. Please stay on topic.
4. Don't lurk through the whole game; if you need to drop out, TELL ME. Really bad lurkers risk MODKILL.
5. If you aren't part of the game, please post in a separate, forbidden to players, thread for outside analysis.
6. Once I say that the day has ended, do not post in the thread.
7. If you die, don't say anything for the rest of the game except a simple, "Bah, you got me," which reveals no information.
8. You may not post verbatim from any messages sent to you by the mod. Paraphrasing is fine.
9. You may not edit your posts. This is to preempt the possibility of cheating by sending messages to other people and then editing them out.
10. Days will run for 72 hours, followed by a 24-hour night phase. Deadlines will be posted in thread.
11. If at any point a player receives a majority of votes (as stated in the mod votals), then the day ends, even if I haven't posted yet. You must not post after a majority is reached.
12. All votes should be made by posting on a new line, IN BOLD. For example,
VOTE: ConMan
13. You must post an Unvote before you can make a new vote. For example,
UNVOTE
VOTE: NamNoc

14. If you have questions, either post them IN BOLD in this thread, or PM me.
15. You may only communicate with other players by PM if I have specifically said you can do so. You must CC me in all PMs.
16. At the start of each day phase I will reveal the alignments & related details of all players killed since the start of the previous day phase.
17. A tied vote at day end will result in No Lynch.

Setup:
This game uses the Alternating 9P set-up from MafiaScum. Allocation of roles was done via Random.org. Below are the role PMs and count of that role.

Mafia (2)
Spoiler:
Welcome, [Player Name]. You are a Mafia Goon, along with your partner, [Player Name].

Abilities:
Factional communication: During the night phase you may talk with your partner via PMs. Please remember to copy me in to the discussion (use the "Reply to sender and all recipients" link when replying).

Factional kill: Each night phase, one of you or your partner may perform the factional kill. You may do this in your night talk by posting Kill <Target> in bold.

Win condition:
You win when all members of the town have been eliminated or nothing can prevent this from occuring.

Vanilla Town (5)
Spoiler:
Welcome, [Player Name], you are a Vanilla Townie.

Abilities:
Your weapon is your vote, you have no night actions.

Win condition:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.

Odd-Night Doctor (1):
Spoiler:
Welcome, [Player Name], you are a Town Odd-Night Doctor.

Abilities:
Each odd-numbered night, you may protect one player in the game from being nightkilled. You may do this by sending me a PM with Protect <Target>, in bold.

Win condition:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.

Even-Night Cop (1):
Spoiler:
Welcome, [Player Name], you are a Town Even-Night Cop.

Abilities:
Each even-numbered night, you may investigate one player in the game by sending me a PM with the text Investigate <Target>, in bold. You will get results back in the form of Town or Mafia.
You know you are guaranteed to be sane.

Win condition:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.


Player list:
1. Sabrar - Lynched D3, Mafia Goon
2. Mathilda
3. emlightened - Lynched D1, Vanilla Town
4. ajh - Killed N2, Odd-Night Doctor
5. jimbobmacdoodle - Killed N1, Vanilla Town
6. Esthr - Lynched D2, Vanilla Town
7. Carlington
8. Minestrone
9. Suzaku

Role PMs are in the process of being sent out. Please confirm in-thread when you have received yours.
Last edited by ConMan on Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:22 am UTC, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:11 pm UTC

Confirm.
Has the game started, or do we need to wait for everyone to confirm?
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:19 pm UTC

Confirmed.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia

Postby emlightened » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:27 pm UTC

Confirm.
Bleb. Idk when I'm returning.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia

Postby Minestrone » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:30 pm UTC

Confirmed

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia

Postby Suzaku » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:35 pm UTC

Confirm.
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ConMan
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia

Postby ConMan » Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:50 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Confirm.
Has the game started, or do we need to wait for everyone to confirm?

Game will start after all players confirm. I will post D1 flavour and deadline at that point. Please do not post anything other than your confirmation at this stage.
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I want to learn this smile, perfect it, and then go around smiling at lesbians and freaking them out.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia

Postby Mathilda » Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:15 am UTC

Confirmed!

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia

Postby Carlington » Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:29 am UTC

Confirm
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia

Postby Esthr » Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:45 pm UTC

Confirm

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia

Postby ajh » Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:16 am UTC

Confirm. Let's go!

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby ConMan » Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:01 pm UTC

Yep, it's time to do this.

It was finally time for mob justice. Which is to say, the citizens of Randallsburg were forming a mob to take care of the mob. I mean, they were forming a lynch mob, to try and get rid of the mafia that had infiltrated town. If only they had some idea who to target.

Game starts now. Deadline in 72 hours - click here for a countdown timer.
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I want to learn this smile, perfect it, and then go around smiling at lesbians and freaking them out.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:11 pm UTC

Hi everyone!

So little time, so much to discuss. Given the completely open setup and the relatively few power-roles the graph of the game has only a small number of
branches, so it's possible to analyze it in detail. I would like to present my opinion on the relevant decisions that we will probably have to face.
Warning: including all my reasoning makes this very lengthy, I've tried to condense it in a shorter version (as many don't like to read wall-of-texts) but
unfortunately failed to do so as I feel it is important to show the logic behind it. So this will be presented in multiple spoilers for ease of reading.

Overview
Spoiler:
In my opinion these are the main questions (some of them may seem trivial but I like to be thorough):
1. When should the Cop claim?
2. When should the Doctor claim?
3. Is it at any time worthwhile for a Vanilla Town to false-claim a power-role?
4. Is No Lynch ever a good idea?

First of all one observation about the setup. I believe the power-roles are our greatest weapons against scum, and the Cop is the most important as he's
guaranteed to have an impact if he survives. Therefore ideally we want to 100% trust in the information they provide and not waste time debating whether
the claim was genuine and mislynch because of a wrong decision.
So here is a simple answer for question 3: no, Vanilla Town should never false-claim. The only advantage it would provide is that maybe scum would
kill him instead of a better target, but as scum could also use this tactic to avoid a lynch it complicates matter more than the advantage it would possibly
bring. Indeed it could lose us the game in many scenarios.

Cop and Doctor claim 1
Spoiler:
Cop and Doctor should in my opinion only claim under one of the following 2 scenarios:
- they are about to get lynched. Mislynch of a Vanilla Townie or No Lynch would be less worse than lynching a power-role and it also gives us an opportunity
to lynch scum instead.
- they have relevant information to share (successful save for Doctor or investigation result on still alive player for Cop) and it is unlikely that waiting for
their next opportunity to use their power will be fruitful.

Let me illustrate the second principle on two examples:
First scenario: we lynch scum D1, Doctor successfully saves someone N1. I believe that the Doctor should claim D2 as the chances that s/he will have another
successful save later is unlikely. This also has the benefit of having two confirmed Towns on Day 2. We could vote No Lynch, remaining scum has to kill the
Doctor N2 (as otherwise s/he could save him/herself N3), leaving the Cop alone to investigate someone. If s/he finds the scum we've won but even if it's just
another townie s/he should claim. Now at the beginning of D3 we have 3 confirmed Town and 1 scum hiding among 4 people. This is not a mathematical win, but
as we're allowed 2 mislynches we're already guaranteed a win 75% of the time even if we would guess totally randomly. With the available information of post
histories this would be closer to 90% I think.

Second scenario: We mislynch VT D1, scum manages to hit the Doctor. We lynch scum D2, remaining scum kills VT. Cop investigates another VT. Now we're at Day
3, with 4 townies and 1 scum. There is no way the game lasts until D5 with 2 people dying each day, so it makes no sense for cop not to claim as s/he won't
have any additional information in the future.

Cop and Doctor claim 2
Spoiler:
Now unto another interesting question: if a power-role decided that it would be advantageous to claim, when during the day should s/he do it? My
answer is this: immediately in his/her first post of the day if one of the following circumstances applies:
- there are still two scums left,
- or we're reduced to less than 5 players.
(Obviously with at least 5 players a lonely scum will never counterclaim, so it doesn't really matter when the power-role claims.)
While there are advantages of e.g. not revealing a scum-result on the Cop's investigation from the start to see who defends that player from accusations, I
think it also provides scum more time to prepare a fake claim to confuse matters. Remember we want to trust investigation/save results. Giving scum more time
to think about what the best possible false-claim would be is counter-productive.
Should 2 players claim Cop in such a way I'm still inclined to believe the first one more (ceteris paribus) as it's extremely risky for scum to present a
false-claim without knowing the true result. If the cop happened to investigate his/her partner then it would be basically all over for them.

No Lynch
Spoiler:
Finally, when should we No Lynch if ever? We know that in a vanilla setup like this one (no SK, only 2 factions) if during the end-game we have 4
players left with 1 scum remaining then No Lynch is considered to be the best option. I am not sure if this can safely be extrapolated to more players in a
general way, specifically if it matters whether we exercise this option on D2, D3 or whenever. I guess it also depends on which power-roles are still alive
and if they can use their power during the upcoming night. So for this one I don't have a clear-cut guideline in mind, however I would like to keep our
options open should we ever have an even number of players remaining.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:20 pm UTC

Vote Sabrar

for a posting too much stuff in the first game post :P

(This is a random vote. I'll actually consider content tomorrow).
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Mathilda » Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:33 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Vote Sabrar

for a posting too much stuff in the first game post :P

(This is a random vote. I'll actually consider content tomorrow).



Vote: Jimbo for pretending that a random vote is actually a proper vote even though he immediately admits that it's a random vote.

(This is a random vote too)

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby emlightened » Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:45 pm UTC

Vote: Mathilda for probably hypocritical reasons and wanting to keep the chain going.

(This is also a random vote.)

I'll post something properly tomorrow.
Bleb. Idk when I'm returning.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Esthr » Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:12 am UTC

Okay, I think I get how this works.

Vote: emlightened

This is as good a place as any for a short intro. Hi, I'm Esthr. I've played forum-based mafia games before, but never with this level of analysis and discussion. I skimmed through some of the recent games here, so hopefully I won't make too much of a fool of myself.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Suzaku » Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:26 am UTC

Hey, all.

Welcome new (and newish) folk.

Vote: Esthr for having a handle that's going to make me paranoid about whether I've spelt it correctly every time I post.

Real content when I get home this evening.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Carlington » Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:34 am UTC

Vote: Suzaku
for being welcoming to new and newish folk, but not those who have been around a while.
I'm out tonight so I'll post more tomorrow.

Also, I just realised that for once the mod will be in my timezone, which will be a pleasant change.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:55 am UTC

Vote: Carlington

Because reasons. Actual content will be tomorr... What? You're saying I already did that? And the chain is not yet complete? All right then, if you insist...

Unvote

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:59 am UTC

Yep. My vote stays on Sabrar for forgetting he'd posted already.

On a more serious note, my thoughts on Sabrar's strategy discussion:

1) I'm not sure I agree necessarily with never false-claiming town power role early, but I would say that I'll essentially ignore any such claims unless there's a reason to make them.
2) Agreed on claiming before being lynched, although I would have to judge things on a case-by-case basis as to whether still to lynch them, i.e. just because someone claims power role doesn't mean they should be spared, otherwise mafia will always claim as such.
3) I haven't fully thought this through, but I think cop should claim D3, regardless of result or doctor saves. Doctor should consider claiming only if it actually can help us, I.e. because of a successful save or we have a spare person and only one scum left.
4) No particular thoughts on No Lynch at the moment other than only if we have an even number left. Probably only at Mylo or if the doctor is dead (two successful saves means an extra lynch).
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby emlightened » Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:32 am UTC

Not sure if I agree with all of Sabrar's content at a glance but it looks sensible; I'll have a proper look when I can post from elsewhere.

Esthr, so that I don't get it wrong later, what pronouns do you prefer?
Bleb. Idk when I'm returning.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:42 am UTC

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle (no joke)

For wanting the Cop to claim on D3 regardless of result. If Doctor manages a successful save either D1 or D3 and we No Lynch the following day, we could arrive at D5 with 3 players left and the Cop's second investigation could be what's needed to win. If however Cop claims then he will definitely die N4 so no additional information will be gained for the endgame.
Also, it is obvious (at least for me) that if mafia claims power-role early to escape a lynch then the true Cop/Doctor should immediately counter-claim. Given the setup we can mislynch twice without losing, so trading 1-for-1 is very beneficial to us. Reserving the right to lynch a claimed power-role (without counter-claims) is therefore extremely scummy.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:44 am UTC

You're right, and my apologies. I didn't think through the scenario of No Lynch AND successful doctor save from the point of view of the cop. Indeed, the same result works without no lynch and two successful saves. So, if the cop discovers scum, they should probably claim D3. If they don't, then it may be best to wait, although I argue that having two confirmed townies once there are 5-6 players is beneficial. If a doctor save happens in fact, we could have as many as 4 confirmed townies.

Unvote

because there is now a serious vote.

I don't think that an immediate counterclaim is necessarily the right thing to do in every situation, especially early on (later on, or if there is only one scum left, it definitely is). Consider the possibility that scum false claim cop D2 to avoid the lynch. Ignoring weird town false claims, the cop actually now knows who one of the scum are. If they can survive N2, they may have a good target for a possible teammate for the scum player based on player analysis. If they find the second scum, they can make their counterclaim then. I'm not saying it's the strategy to follow, but it is a case we have to consider. A 1-for-1 trade is beneficial, yes, but it also loses a power role.

Also, just because I'm reserving the right to lynch someone does not mean that I actually plan on doing so. I don't like being dictated to long in advance of decisions as to the correct action, because I think it is hard to think of every possible case or reason to do things. On that note, every suggestion I make should be considered with the caveat "unless they can think of a good reason (not) to". If I do choose to go after a claimed power role, judge me then on my reasoning.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby ajh » Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:38 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:While there are advantages of e.g. not revealing a scum-result on the Cop's investigation from the start to see who defends that player from accusations, I
think it also provides scum more time to prepare a fake claim to confuse matters. Remember we want to trust investigation/save results. Giving scum more time
to think about what the best possible false-claim would be is counter-productive.
Should 2 players claim Cop in such a way I'm still inclined to believe the first one more (ceteris paribus) as it's extremely risky for scum to present a
false-claim without knowing the true result. If the cop happened to investigate his/her partner then it would be basically all over for them.
How exactly is it risky for scum to claim Cop? Or did I misunderstand your observation?

We should be careful with scum exploiting our guidelines (claiming etc.). Personally I think the PRs should only claim to get their intelligence out.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Suzaku » Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:46 pm UTC

Unvote

OK, some thoughts and analysis:
7 town, 2 scum.
This means that, modulo successful doctorings, if we don't lynch scum, then on D2 we start 5/2, and on D3 we start 3/2, which is LYLO (for newbies - LYLO = Lynch (correctly) Or LOse). If we mislynch again in that case, we instantly lose twenty dollars and my self respect.

'Normal' guidelines for claiming in a vanilla game are - any PR can (maybe should) claim to try and avoid being lynched. If scum trys to avoid the lynch by falsely claiming a PR, the real PR should most likely claim. The result of not doing so may be ending up with scum as 'confirmed' town to some/many players, and that can easily be fatal. If the PR genuinely thinks there's an advantage to not claiming, that's OK, but if in doubt, spit it out.
Relatedly, hammering a player before they have the opportunity to claim is very scummy indeed (especially with the relatively short deadlines in this game).

Doctor - likely shouldn't claim before LYLO. Without the ability to protect every night, however, that's less true in this game. Normally, if the doctor can successfully protect someone N1, that shows that they read the Mafia well D1, which in turn implies that they should try to do the same N2, rather than paint a huge target on themselves.

Query: Can the doctor protect themself?

Alternatively, if the doctor's successful save looks like getting lynched, it may be worth claiming in order to save them.

Cop - Should probably claim if they have a scum result. Should almost certainly not claim if they have a town result. Confirming one of 6 (other than the cop) townies is probably not worth losing the cop to NK, confirming one of two scum almost certainly is. Both of these are also less true than normal in this game, as we can expect only half the 'usual' number of results. At worst case D3 LYLO, we will only have one cop result at all, so if it looks like going that way, it's probably better for the cop to claim even with only a town result.

Note that none of these are hard-and-fast rules, if you can see a real advantage to not following them, don't. But make sure you've thought it through very carefully first.

On the people with content so far:
Sabrar - initial feeling is good. I don't necessarily agree with everything he says regarding claiming (especially point two on timing), but his arguments stand up and feel towny. Very tentatively leaning town.
jimbobmacdoodle - initial feeling is not so good. His quick retraction of his oversight is positive, but that doesn't change the fact that his strategy was not helpful. Not enough to lean scum, by quite a shot, but IGMEOY, jimbob.

Query: Are deadlines hard or soft if there's no hammer?

Ninja:
Imagine a scenario where at the beginning of the day Angus claims cop and accuses Emily of being scum. If, by coincidence, Burt also accuses Felicity, then we have 4 players containing two guaranteed scum (assuming no townies lie), and we can determine all alignments with one kill (lynch Emily: if she's scum then so's Burt, if she's town then so are Angus and Felicity) this is going to end with town winning in most circumstances. Since the false cop cannot know who the real cop investigated, it's a risk for them to claim first. Note this is one reason why it's bad for townies (especially vanilla townies) to lie.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:18 pm UTC

ajh wrote:We should be careful with scum exploiting our guidelines (claiming etc.).

The fun thing about hard rules is that they cannot be exploited. :)
But seriously: if e.g. we should agree that Cop should claim in his/her first post on D3 then it will be impossible for scum later to false-claim. Obviously this only works if we can all agree upon the rules we set up.
Ninja'd by Suzaku about the other part, his example was exactly what I had in mind (although I think there's a slight mistake with the wording, if Emily is town hen Angus and Felicity are scum, not town).

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Suzaku » Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:06 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Ninja'd by Suzaku about the other part, his example was exactly what I had in mind (although I think there's a slight mistake with the wording, if Emily is town hen Angus and Felicity are scum, not town).

Correct, I missed that mistype.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Mathilda » Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:26 pm UTC

I have to admit to being a little taken back. This is my first normal mafia game on this forum. I learnt the hard way that each forum has its own style of play and it can go horribly wrong if you make assumptions about how town should be playing. I wasn't expecting this kind of analysis so early on though. But day 1 is always the hardest as you have to find ways of generating content somehow.

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Mathilda
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Mathilda » Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:38 pm UTC

ajh wrote:Personally I think the PRs should only claim to get their intelligence out.


Exactly. If you claim then you give scum information. Even if you are a vanilla townie then it means that scum have a greater chance of hitting a PR during the night. A cop should only claim if they have a guilty result. I did come across one strategy though called follow the cop which works if there is a doctor that can protect them every night. But if the doctor dies then the cop dies the next night.

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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:44 pm UTC

Random thoughts on people based on what little meta I know and early posts:

Sabrar: frequent poster who likes to move their vote around in early days and tries to generate discussion. Maybe a bit more aggressive than I've seen him in the past couple of games.

Suzaku: probably the most experienced xkcdian amongst us. Already posted a bigger post than I think I've seen him post before. Don't really have any thoughts on his meta yet.

Ajh: tends to favour short posts, usually kept to the point. His first post fits what little I've seen of him before.

Mathilda: welcome! Seems a little taken aback by the early posts. For the record, I don't think this is the usual style on here! Usually there's lots of random voting followed by lots of setup speculation (most games are closed setup) then some moaning about lack of useful content! Follow the cop doesn't really work with this setup due to no protection every other night.

Carlington: fairly new to xkcd forums, but more experienced elsewhere, IIRC. From what I've seen of him, he is quite hard to read. Hopefully I'll have a better read on him in a game I'm actually playing.

Esthr: welcome! Otherwise, no content to comment on yet.

Emlightened: scum in the one game I've seen of her, and I did think she was scum initially before being swayed away by content increase. I'll have to keep a closer eye on her if my scumbag starts pinging.

Minestrone: another fairly experienced player, in comparison to most, I think. SK in Secret Santa that I did not even come close to picking up on. No content this game yet.
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Sabrar
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:46 pm UTC

@Mathilda: please don't let my analysis deter you from future games, this is not how a 'normal' D1 looks like at all. In my defense I was similarly lost in both of my previous games on this forum so I wanted to try something different because the setup allowed it. I apologize if this diminishes your enjoyment of the game.
BTW: as you yourself mentioned, follow the cop only works if the doctor is able to protect every night, so unfortunately we cannot use it here.

Ninja'd by jimbobmacdoodle, will react later.

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Sabrar
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:00 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar: frequent poster who likes to move their vote around in early days

Completely untrue. In fact I complained excessively that people vote too early and that I like to make my decision when more data is available. However as it seems to me that this is the 'normal' meta for this forum I've decided to adapt my playstyle for this game to see how it works out.
You can check my voting history in my previous games, in both of them I voted for exactly two players on D1, once for a townie who seemed very scummy to me (and some other people as well) and then changed it for actual scum when new information came to light.

I like my vote where it is, thank you very much.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:19 pm UTC

That last post was gut impressions and apparently incorrect memories. I could have sworn I remember you switching around your vote a lot in one of the previous games. Now that I'm home, I've had a chance to look over those games, and it looks like you are right.

If your vote is because I've made a couple of mistakes, then fine. It seems a rather weak reason to me. I plan on actually looking for people acting scummily once there's some more content from everyone, and I don't consider mistakes of that sort scummy.
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Esthr
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Esthr » Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:40 pm UTC

Unvote

I don't think I like cops or doctors claiming to avoid being lynched. It seems like an easy defense for scum to use, especially if it encourages the real one to counter-claim. I would think anyone that uses a PR claim as their only defense is absolutely scum.

I agree the cop should claim on D3 with their N2 result. At that point, we'll probably be down to 4 or less townies, so even a town result would be very helpful.

emlightened, I prefer female pronouns, but am very much in the "I don't really mind" camp.

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ConMan
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby ConMan » Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:16 pm UTC

Suzaku wrote:Query: Can the doctor protect themself?

Yes.

Suzaku wrote:Query: Are deadlines hard or soft if there's no hammer?

Deadlines are hard. In the absence of a hammer, whoever has the plurality vote will be lynched, and as stated in the rules a tied vote will result in No Lynch.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Suzaku » Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:32 pm UTC

Sorry, by 'hard or soft', I meant whether day ended at deadline exactly, or whether posting and voting could continue until you posted an end-of-day post (in the absence of a hammer vote)?
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ConMan
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby ConMan » Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:14 pm UTC

Suzaku wrote:Sorry, by 'hard or soft', I meant whether day ended at deadline exactly, or whether posting and voting could continue until you posted an end-of-day post (in the absence of a hammer vote)?

I see. Yes, when deadline hits please stop posting even if I haven't formally ended the day.
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emlightened
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby emlightened » Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:18 pm UTC

I feel like Sabrar is looking far too hard at jimbob, but I'm not going to defend him (jimbob). I also don't think I like that Sabrar is trying to change his methods to conform with what he thinks the other players want, but it may help us later on. I'm not complaining, it just seems strange that he's changing his style to work around our common metas.

Using PRs as a lynch defense is definitely going to make things murkier. It makes sense for PRs to claim before lynching, but as we're more likely to decide on scum than a PR to lynch (for 2/2 or 1/1), any claims at that stage are likely fake, and it's most beneficial to ignore them. On the other hand, any genuine claims we have we can expect to be nightkilled, so if we do that, we have to decide whether they're scum or were deliberately avoided. Keep in mind that the PRs here are relatively weak, and we'll probably be playing a near-vanilla game for a while.


Assuming random lynches, doctors and cops claiming before lynch but not using it as a defense seems to be the best strategy (if they also claim in the situations outlined above, of course).
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Minestrone
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Minestrone » Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:54 am UTC

Sorry I haven't posted yet, last night I was tired and today was super long.

Sabrar's analysis is solid. I understand other people's hangups about strict rules but there's one rule that shouldn't be questioned at all in this setup: no lying townies. In more complicated closed setups there are some possible cases where it could be helpful or necessary but in this case lying as town is literally forcing us to waste a lynch on you, because if scum gets caught lying there's no way I'm accepting "I'm actually town I was lying to try and help" as a defense.

Emlightened: If there's no counterclaim then there's no reason for us to disbelieve a PR defense. If the person claiming PR is lying then the town PR out there will either 1) counterclaim immediately (almost certainly the best choice, especially because the longer they wait to counterclaim the less believable they'll be) or 2) keep quiet for some reason but eventually die and flip, at which point the lying scum will be revealed. LYLO changes things of course but at LYLO the real PRs should claim anyway. In summary FOS for suggesting we lynch claimed PRs, not a vote because I can understand it being a mistake.

Esthr: Same thing I said to emlightened basically. With how weak the power roles are in this setup losing one to a nightkill for a scum lynch is absolutely worth it so counterclaiming is absolutely worth it, which makes fakeclaiming not worth it for scum, which makes claiming a believable defense for a PR (and a good thing to do, because a PR dying to a NK is bad but way better than dying to a lynch)


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