Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

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ajh
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby ajh » Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:21 am UTC

If scum counterclaimed when a real PR was about to get lynched, wouldn't they seal it (with our current MO)? I'm still convinced townsfolk should just go down silently, not even claiming under early pressure (which would be more believable than at the last second). No claim, no problems, such as scum leaving an accepted PR alive.

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Sabrar
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:34 am UTC

Minestrone expresses my thoughts about claiming in a clear fashion so hopefully I won't need to go into it again. I always feel stupid when I have to explain something multiple times, it ususally means that I left something out from my earlier analysis which in this case was probaly due to not wanting to post even more of a wall-of-text.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:If your vote is because I've made a couple of mistakes, then fine. It seems a rather weak reason to me. I plan on actually looking for people acting scummily once there's some more content from everyone, and I don't consider mistakes of that sort scummy.

Unfortunately this D1 is rather short, we're already halfway there and haven't heard anything from Carlington, also Mathilda contributed very little in my opinion. Sure, if everybody starts posting content then we can go scum-hunting but until then I work with what has been provided. You've made a couple of mistakes that seem out-of-character based on our previous interactions, also this post is for me reminiscent of your scum-play in Smalltown.
So for now I'm very suspicious of you and without other good options (though lynching the lurker is also important) my vote is on you.

@emlightened regarding meta, off-topic
Spoiler:
emlightened wrote:I also don't think I like that Sabrar is trying to change his methods to conform with what he thinks the other players want, but it may help us later on. I'm not complaining, it just seems strange that he's changing his style to work around our common metas.

You can see me investigating the meta of this forum in both Secret Santa and the Gojoe thread. I hope to to be able to play a lot more games here and would like to have a clear picture of the established rules. It's not fun getting lynched because the other players use meta arguments that do not apply to you.
Now that doesn't mean that I will bend over backwards and completely change my playstyle (I probably will post wall-of-texts in every game I play regardless), however until I can convince people not to take their meta-reads so seriously for newcomers I would like to avoid these situations if possible. I might be going about it the wrong way though, time will tell.

Ninja'd by ajh: yes we would lynch the PR, however next day we immediately lynch the scum as well, making it a 1-for-1 trade which is beneficial to us given the setup. Also in my opinion PR should claim only as a last resort and definitely not under early pressure.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:53 am UTC

I've been assuming that everyone was thinking that we should judge between the two claimed PRs to see who is more scummy. Presumably one will be lynched and the other will either die to night kill or turn out to be scum after we mislynch. I can actually think of one case where we could even choose to lynch neither player, namely if the doctor is due to act that night and both players claimed doctor (and we're some distance from MYLO or LYLO. Scum then have to decide who to kill - the doctor (who might be protecting themself, and whose death confirms a scum) or someone else (whom the doctor might be protecting).

One exception I'd propose to the no lying townie rule would be PR town being able to claim vanilla, if pushed but not ready to claim truly. Of course, that might count against them later if they claim PR, but they should judge that themselves.

Ninja'ed by Sabrar: thank you for your explanation. The intent of the linked post was mostly to try and generate more discussion whilst I had a few minutes time on my bus journey home. Yes it was very low in useful content, but that was mostly due to a lack of content from others. Regarding out of character mistakes, I think I've made these sort of mistakes before, but I can't remember which game and don't have the opportunity now to go and look. I'll try to remember to look later when not phone posting.
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Sabrar
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:06 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I can actually think of one case where we could even choose to lynch neither player, namely if the doctor is due to act that night and both players claimed doctor

Here you're just postponing the decision, as scum will not do our work for us. Suppose it's D1, Albert (who is scum) is about to get lynched, false-claims Doctor. Bob (the real Doctor) counterclaims. According to your proposition we would lynch neither. However No Lynch is a bad idea with 9 players, so we have to find a new target in a limited time-frame while we've just increased the probability of a mislynch from 50% to ~86%. On N1 scum will not kill Bob, leading us into D2 with Albert and Bob still alive and we've probably used up one of our mislynches, meaning if we guess wrong D2 then even if we lynch Albert D3 the other scum can now more safely false-claim Cop as we've run out of mislynches.
If on the other hand we mislynch Bob D1 and lynch Albert D2, the remaining scum can not false-claim Cop on D3 as he would lose automatically.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:One exception I'd propose to the no lying townie rule would be PR town being able to claim vanilla, if pushed but not ready to claim truly. Of course, that might count against them later if they claim PR, but they should judge that themselves.

By default everybody claims VT, so PR is obviously allowed to do so. This doesn't lessen their later claim in my opinion.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:31 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I can actually think of one case where we could even choose to lynch neither player, namely if the doctor is due to act that night and both players claimed doctor

Here you're just postponing the decision, as scum will not do our work for us. Suppose it's D1, Albert (who is scum) is about to get lynched, false-claims Doctor. Bob (the real Doctor) counterclaims. According to your proposition we would lynch neither. However No Lynch is a bad idea with 9 players, so we have to find a new target in a limited time-frame while we've just increased the probability of a mislynch from 50% to ~86%. On N1 scum will not kill Bob, leading us into D2 with Albert and Bob still alive and we've probably used up one of our mislynches, meaning if we guess wrong D2 then even if we lynch Albert D3 the other scum can now more safely false-claim Cop as we've run out of mislynches.
[/quote]At no point did I say that we should no lynch. Your 86% figure (and for that matter the 50% figure) suggests that we have no other information to go on and are lynching randomly. However, chances are that most people have seen more than one person they find scummy, and given the information that one of two players is definitely scum, they may be able to find a teammate. You also ignore the idea that the doctor could choose to protect someone other than themself and therefore potentially save someone, an option that would not be available if we mislynch. Yes, it may be best to lynch one of them immediately, if there are no obvious other targets, but if I have seen someone else I think is scum, it makes sense to me to start going after the other person. If we successfully find the second scum with only one mislynch along the way, then we can lynch both the claimants.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby emlightened » Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:41 am UTC

@Minestrone: I'm of the same opinion as ajh about this, mostly. Claiming can overcomplicate things, but claiming before death but not using it as a defence has this not get overcomplicated, but we also get the info about the night actions as well, instead of just two pseudo-vanilla townies. If two people claim, then we can just lynch both; its more likely that we've got the noose around the scum then around the townie.

No counterclaim would be a good reason not to lynch them, though, but I'm still unsure about the chance of a PR not claiming; we've basically got a scum confirmed town in this case.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Mathilda » Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:54 am UTC

OK I can see how this can work as a style of play. We all figure out a strategy based on the current set up and that gets us talking. The problem is that though it doesn't move us any closer to finding out who is scum. But it does provide a subtle way to potentially spot them. Scum need to provide content but without saying anything too contentious or which will attract attention to themselves. As a result it's very easy to fall into talking about general game mechanics. The thread seems to be turning that direction now. I would analyse each post in turn but I can't see each post's number to refer to. Do bear in mind though that I am new to this forum and am not sure of what is considered usual play here.

So first off we have Sabrar talking about the set-up for this game. Early on here says:

Sabrar wrote:I would like to present my opinion on the relevant decisions that we will probably have to face.


So whether or not he's managed it, he has at least claimed that he's trying to come up with strategies that we should consider using.

Next up is jimbomacdoodle's response to it. This response is OK because he's referring to specific points raised by Sabrar. So this is potentially helpful to us.

Then there's a vote from Sabrar on jimbomacdoodle, "For wanting the Cop to claim on D3 regardless of result". Regardless of whether the vote is a good one or not, this post can be seen as scum hunting. For we know jimbo was trying to subvert town strategy. I like jimbo's response though admitting that Sabrar was correct. This suggests that jimbo is currently thinking the strategy through and someone else has pointed out an implication that hadn't yet thought of.

When ajh comes in though the conversation starts veering towards general game mechanics. The second line could potentially be a signal to a scum buddy on how they might proceed here.

ajh wrote:How exactly is it risky for scum to claim Cop? Or did I misunderstand your observation?

We should be careful with scum exploiting our guidelines (claiming etc.). Personally I think the PRs should only claim to get their intelligence out.


Suzaku then posts a long detailed analysis of the set up. I like this post because it refers to specific dangers, such when we could read LyLo. It then starts to analyse other players and giving opinions about how scummy or towny they are. This is moving us away from talking about generic game mechanics. I have Suzaku down as town for this one.

jimbomacdoodle then makes a post giving a read list and does not talk about game mechanics. As with Suzaku this has the potential for contention and to help flush out scum, so I am inclined to think his earlier slip about the cop claiming on day 3 was just an honest mistake. I put him as town leaning for the moment.

This post makes me nervous though. This looks like trying to flush out the cop regardless of whether they have results or not. It makes me wonder if Esthr and ajh are scum buddies and she's picked up on his signal to subvert town strategy.

Esthr wrote:I agree the cop should claim on D3 with their N2 result. At that point, we'll probably be down to 4 or less townies, so even a town result would be very helpful.



I like emlightened's next post. She analyse's Sabrar's meta and expresses doubt about what people have proposed regarding town strategy. One of the ways that I distinguish between scum and town is whether they are actively pushing for something for whether they are expressing doubt. This is because one of the main distinguishing features between town and scum is that former start off with no information whatsoever whereas the latter start off knowing everything.

Minestrone then makes a post. It makes me wary because it's talking about general game mechanics without saying anything contentious. It could be construed as appearing to contribute but without actually scum hunting.

ajh then responds in full-on generic game mechanics talk

ajh wrote:If scum counterclaimed when a real PR was about to get lynched, wouldn't they seal it (with our current MO)? I'm still convinced townsfolk should just go down silently, not even claiming under early pressure (which would be more believable than at the last second). No claim, no problems, such as scum leaving an accepted PR alive.


This makes jimbo veer towards generic talk but he at least proposes an amendment to the no lying rule. This is something specific to town strategy. I think it is very reasonable for a town PR to claim to be vanilla so this makes me put aside previous reservations and think that jimbo is actually town for now. I'm not that keen on Sabrar's response to it though. It's referring to very specific situations which we can't really assume for now will happen. We have a very short day phase. We should be using this time to try to figure out the motivations of the posters which will help us determine their alignment.

emlightened then responds to minestrone with caution, which makes me feel better about my town lean on her.

So for the moment, I'm leaning ajh and minestrone as scum for veering the conversation towards general game mechanics which wastes precious time when we should either be deciding on specific strategies or figuring out who is scum.

Vote: ajh

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:44 pm UTC

@jimbobmacdoodle: I did not mean to imply that you'd advocate a No Lynch, it was just there to underline the difficulties of finding a new target. Yes I'm simplifying the things a bit to avoid another wall-of-text however the core idea is the same, in my opinion not going for the immediate lynch is bad for the stated reasons. Your counterpoints are valid but are far from certainties and offer a lesser chance of success.

@emlightened: this is precisely why I feel we should all agree upon some rules, if scum knows in advance that a false-claim will be definitely contested then it will be impossible for them to pull it off.

@Mathilda: seems I just had to complain about the lack of content and here it is. I wonder if the same works with Carlington? :)
As I explained elsewhere I generally do not like analysis where the player provides a summary of other's posts, however this actually serves a purpose here and goes beyond simple recaps. I don't necessarily agree with the conclusion of the exercise, while in IRL Mafia it is easier to get sidetracked as more vocal players can direct the conversation, on the forums everyone can post whatever and whenever they want. Still, impressive effort and interesting line of thought.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Carlington » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:46 pm UTC

Not quite the same for me, unfortunately. I'm very, very tired and possibly coming down with something, and much as I try I can't process information well enough right now to make a decent post. Let me see after I've rested.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:05 pm UTC

Sorry to hear that and apologies for pressuring you.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby ajh » Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:28 pm UTC

I was aware I wanted a very specific clarification, it was concerning enough for my post. Mathilda, your reads sound very strong, which I honestly can't support at this point myself.
Forgot the rest I had to say.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Carlington » Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:11 am UTC

I'm awake and feeling a bit better, but on the bus. Short post now, long post later. I've left posting content wayyy too late already, for which I am sorry. (Am I the last one to post, or are we still waiting to hear from others?). No worries by the way Sabrar, I didn't feel unduly pressured. :)

Unvote

Sabrar posted nice and early with some strong content which looks nice and town to me. I think Sabrar and jimbob going at each other has been a case of town vs. town, although I guess it's possible that it's a very strong scumteam play where they attack each other and then back off to look town. I don't think it's likely, though, as it seems too coordinated to be possible D1.

I'm always a little wary about setting rules for claiming and such, but I think that's more to do with my own particular approach to the game than it is an indicator of alignment, so I tend not to rely on it as a tell.

Mathilda, I like your analysis but disagree with the end of your post - we have nothing to go on but game mechanic discussion at this point - we need to look at the information gained from that discussion to figure out town and scum. I've fallen into similar though patterns in the past, but have since learnt how they are unhelpful go town.

I am 100% in the 'town should never lie' camp. An earlier false claim of VT makes a later claim of PR look suspicious always, imo.

I have to work now, I'll be back in a few hours to finish my thoughts here.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:07 am UTC

One problem that just occurred to me is that if we leave voting for too late then a PR who's about to get mislynched might not be online to claim. Or the real PR might not be online to counter-claim a scum. Even if s/he is we might not have the necessary time to agree upon a good alternative to lynch. I understand that scum might want to hold back to see if there's an easy bandwagon they can jump unto without doing their own analysis, but we shouldn't leave voting for the last minute.

Also I fear that Day 1 produced less analyzable content than my previous games (mostly due to the tight deadline I think). Could I ask everyone to provide a Town-to-Scum list before N1, so we have something to work with tomorrow? If you want to provide some additional comments as well that's even better. I'll post mine in a few hours.

Finally it looks like we won't have to consider lynching a complete lurker, but there are a couple of people I would like to prod (gently :) ).

@Suzaku: you posted some good analysis at the beginning of the day but there's been a lot of new content since then. Could you give us your updated thoughts? I assume you're going to be asleep during the deadline so it's important to have your opinion shared as soon as possible.

@Esthr: do you have anything new to add to the discussion? Maybe your reads on the other players?

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Mathilda » Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:03 am UTC

ajh wrote:I was aware I wanted a very specific clarification, it was concerning enough for my post. Mathilda, your reads sound very strong, which I honestly can't support at this point myself.
Forgot the rest I had to say.



Well at this point in the game there is very little to go on. During Day 1 all we can do is look out for the most minor of possible scum tells. In your defence you were arguing that PRs should only claim to get their intelligence out and the more I think about it the more I wonder if scum would advocate this when so many people have been arguing that the cop should claim on day 3 regardless.

I've actually just been informed by the mod that my vote is invalid anyway because I should unvote first before changing my vote. So I'm going to unvote now and pause before revoting. I would like to hear your defence as to why you were are talking about general game mechanics rather than either scum hunting or thinking through our strategy.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Mathilda » Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:12 am UTC

Carlington wrote:Mathilda, I like your analysis but disagree with the end of your post - we have nothing to go on but game mechanic discussion at this point - we need to look at the information gained from that discussion to figure out town and scum. I've fallen into similar though patterns in the past, but have since learnt how they are unhelpful go town.


I disagree. If you look at how they play on mafiascum.net they start off with random votes and then will seize upon anything they can to put pressure on each other. Most of the time all anyone can talk about is the tone that was used, or how someone is posting a bit off or their play is a little different. It is how people react to the pressure that builds up a case. You can really see it happen on that forum because the day phases are so long, like two weeks etc.

Talking about game strategy won't help us find scum and I am suspicious of anyone who tries to move us back into discussions about game mechanics. Especially considering that the day phases are short in this game. Now we're unlikely to lynch scum on the first day but that's not where the value of day 1 lynches lays. The reason for lynching on day 1 is to generate information. Who jumped on a lynch wagon opportunistically? Who jumped off at the moment knowing that the lynchee was going to flip town? Who flip-flopped between lynch wagons rather than tried scum hunting. We cannot do this if we talk about game mechanics. One of the biggest challenges of day 1 can be to get a conversation started to generate information. This is what we need in order to win.



(Glad you're feeling better btw)

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Mathilda » Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:14 am UTC

Mathilda wrote:I've actually just been informed by the mod that my vote is invalid anyway because I should unvote first before changing my vote. So I'm going to unvote now and pause before revoting. I would like to hear your defence as to why you were are talking about general game mechanics rather than either scum hunting or thinking through our strategy.


Helps if I actually remember to unvote of course!

Unvote: Jimbo

(Sorry mod!)

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:35 am UTC

I'll do a town to scum list later today, once I've got a bit more time. Meanwhile here's an updated list of thoughts:

Sabrar: His aggressiveness early on versus me (and me only), troubled me a bit, as it didn't feel the same as he usually plays. However, his most recent post feels much better to me, as it is trying to generate more content.

A note on late claims: if there is a late one, I believe that people should switch to their second scummiest player. If a counter-claim does appear before deadline, they can switch back. A counter-claim early the next day may be necessary, if the relevant person wasn't online and should not be treated with any more suspicion than a usual counter-claim, in my opinion.

Ajh: hasn't produced much in the way of content, apart from a discussion on claiming, and a belief that Mathilda's opinions are too strong this early (OMGUS?). As noted earlier, this seems like his typical play style, so perhaps a null tell.

Carlington: his opinions are similar but not the same to mine. I think he may have missed Mathilda's point - I.e. there is game-specific discussion and generic discussion. The former is helpful, as scum have to either make up reasonable strategies or not participate in the discussion (lurk). The latter less so helpful.

Mathilda: one solid post with good analysis. Probably my towniest read so far. <Ninja'ed>She does back off after considering her conclusion. I'll consider this later.<Ninja'ed x 2>Yup, good thoughts from Mathilda. More opinions on this later</Ninja'ed x 2>

@Mathilda, you don't appear to have actually unvoted ajh.<Ninja'ed x 3>So many ninja's! Unvote has happened.</Ninja'ed x 3></Ninja'ed>

Suzaku: Only one post with content so far, and that didn't have much in the way of player analysis (due to the lack of content at the time), so not all that much to go on. Would appreciate more content, so that I can actually form an opinion on him. Probably town, but I need to look back at the post in depth a bti more.

emlightened: Very low content so far. Basically talks about when to claim and that's it. Needs to post opinions on players now. I don't like this comment:
emlightened wrote:It makes sense for PRs to claim before lynching, but as we're more likely to decide on scum than a PR to lynch (for 2/2 or 1/1), any claims at that stage are likely fake, and it's most beneficial to ignore them
It sounds like she's saying that she doesn't want people to claim if they are a PR and in danger of being lynched, and if they do they must be scum. I'm not sure I see the benefit in a PR not claiming before lynch. If scum try to false claim, it gives at least one member of town information, either to counter-claim or to more effectively use their vote and action. By the way, I think this point applies to one or two others, but I'm out of time to go back and look. Scummy; more content or a decent defence of their reasoning might help here.

Esthr: Also doesn't like using PR claim as a defence, but I'm not getting quite the same vibes as with emlightened, and I don't know why not. Probably a phrasing thing. Also lacking any significant content. Slightly scum, and needs more content.

Minestrone: Has same belief as my comment about PR claiming as defence tactic, and accepts Sabrar's analysis as solid. No content apart from this. Slightly town, but again needs more content.

A note on deadline: it appears to be 10pm UCT tonight, which I think means that everyone will likely be up, except maybe our Japanese/Australian/New Zealender/random south-east Asian or similar companions, if they don't want to be up early on a Saturday. I'm assuming we don't have anyone from middle-East/central Asia playing.

So people I think might be scum (loosely in order of scumminess, most to least): emlightened, Esthr, ajh.
People I think are likely town (loosely in order of towniest, most to least): Mathilda, Carlington, Sabrar, Suzaku, Minestrone.

In case I don't get a chance to post later:

Vote emlightened

for low content, zero opinions on other players so far, and suggesting that a PR claim as a defence is likely false.

FoS Esthr

for similar reasons.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Suzaku » Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:26 am UTC

Sorry about the gap in posting. My boss took us out for drinks and karaoke last night, and today I've been every bit as sick as I deserve.

On my way home now, proper post and vote after I get to my PC.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby emlightened » Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:07 am UTC

Unvote

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Vote emlightened

for low content, zero opinions on other players so far, and suggesting that a PR claim as a defence is likely false.


I think that we're more likely to select scum to lynch than a PR, and if scum are in that situation, then claiming to buy time makes sense for them. I assume that scum would use that as a defence, and we're more likely to almost lynch scum than an actual PR, so it makes sense to claim. Furthermore, the actual PR may not be online at the time, as mentioned above, so a claim without a counterclaim means little, but may mean more if that's the case for a long time.

If we are in that situation (and agree to it), then the PR should claim what actions they did, and we have confirmed town/scum when we lynch (if it's a cop). It might be worth taking a different course of action if they claim doctor, and there were no saves, or a cop lynch before D3, as lynching them gives us no new information.


Sabrar: Initial serious vote seemed a bit swift, but as we've only got 72h days, it's understandable. Solid reasoning on strategizing; I'm pretty sure he's town.

jimbobmacdoodle: Reasoning seems mostly fine, but with a couple of mistakes that don't make much sense, and it doesn't feel like his amendments are much more sensible*. Somewhat defensive against Sabrar, but opinions on other players seem fine. Seems biased against me, but that might just be OMGUS speaking. Slightly scummy.
*
Spoiler:
I can actually think of one case where we could even choose to lynch neither player, namely if the doctor is due to act that night and both players claimed doctor (and we're some distance from MYLO or LYLO. Scum then have to decide who to kill - the doctor (who might be protecting themself, and whose death confirms a scum) or someone else (whom the doctor might be protecting).
For instance, would leave us very close to LYLO if we killed the real doctor first, and could lose us the game in some scenarios.


Mathilda: Good overview of posts and promotes looking at players instead of just mechanics, because looking at mechanics doesn't help us scumhunt. Helps generate useful information,and nothing seems off about her posts. Leaning townie.


I don't have time to finish this off right now, so I'm leaving it here. I'll do my townie-scummy rankings later.







Town





Scum

I think someone (I'd recommend Sabrar) should post an explicit strategy on power roles, so that there's no ambiguity later on with what to do. The other players would have to agree with it, obviously.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby emlightened » Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:08 am UTC

EBWOP: Sorry for the giant gap of text at the bottom of my above post, I intended to remove that before posting. I was trying to finish up quickly, so didn't quite scroll all the way down when checking.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Esthr » Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:21 pm UTC

I neglected to post yesterday, which seems to have been a mistake. Sorry. Here's some analysis.

Sabrar leads the discussion with setup speculation and guidelines for PR claims. His analysis is solid and reasonable and very townish, but the fact that he's producing so much content at all makes him decidedly town at the moment. The one thing that stuck is his early serious vote on jimbob.

Jimbob also posted a fair bit of content about mechanics early on, though he seems a bit more wary about establishing hard rules. I don't think his D3 comment was entirely unreasonable, so Sabrar's vote on him feels incredibly weak. I can understand if it was just an early vote when there wasn't much content to discuss, but Sabrar has yet to remove it at this point. This feels weird, but isn't particularly scummy.

Town: Sabrar, jimbob

That's all I have town for before work. I'll continue my analysis when I have a chance.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Esthr » Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:22 pm UTC

EBWOP: That's all I have time for

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:57 pm UTC

Quick notes while I have the time. Caveat: I'm getting scummy or suspicious vibes from more people than there are actual scum, so some of those are definitely wrong.

ajh: very short posts with no substantial analysis of his own, making him hard to read. I don't like the 'Forgot what I wanted' part, for me it's more indicative of scum. Leaning towards scum because of this and possible lurking.
emlightened: my gut feeling tells me she's scum because she constantly criticizes the 'PR should definitely claim/counter-claim' plan which is obviously right to me. However I also know that sometimes I'm a bit too full of myself and people might legitimately disagree with me without any ulterior motives. Her last post looks much more like what I would expect from a townie, so very tentatively leaning town on her for now.
jimbobmacdoodle: I read him correctly for scum in Smalltown and misread him in Secret Santa. His play-style reminds me more of the former so I'm a bit more convinced in my read this time, despite multiple people saying that it's town vs town.
Minestrone: only 1 post but with good content. Leaning town right now but I hope you will contribute more in the future.
Mathilda: very original analysis and her reply to Carlington feels right. Having strong reads is also more indicative of Town.

Town
Mathilda
Minestrone
emlightened
ajh
jimbobmacdoodle
Scum

Carlington, Esthr, Suzaku: all have very few posts but promised more later. For now I have Town - Suzaku - Carlington - Esthr - Scum as my read but will revisit after more content if there's still time. Interesting 'Freudian' slip from Esthr though. :)

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:27 pm UTC

Per emlightened's suggestion here's my proposed algorithm for D2, please feel free to analyze/disregard. If received positively, will work on similar strategy for D3 (it will take longer due to more branches).

Spoiler:
I/a. We lynch scum D1, Doctor successfully saves someone other than him/herself on N1: Doctor should claim at the very beginning of D2 (see first scenario here). We fully utilize the time to discuss potential scum-buddies but vote No Lynch and Cop investigates the most likely suspect.
I/b. We lynch scum D1, Doctor successfully saves him/herself on N1: No claim from Doctor as no additional information will be provided and he'll get another chance N3. Otherwise same procedure as before.
II/a/1. We mislynch VT D1, Doctor successfully saves someone other than him/herself on N1: basically the same as I/a, Doctor immediately claims and after much discussion we vote No Lynch to give Cop the best chance to have an investigation result.
II/a/2. We mislynch VT D1, Doctor successfully saves him/herself on N1: same as I/b, no claim.
II/b. We mislynch a PR D1: should only happen with a counter-claim, we lynch confirmed scum D2.

Obviously if Doctor didn't save anyone then there's no reason to claim.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:46 pm UTC

EBWOP: I'm stupid. If Doctor successfully saves him/herself but doesn't claim then scum will immediately know his/her identity if we strictly follow these guidelines. Please disregard the above, have to think about it more.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Esthr » Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:08 pm UTC

Here's an easy one.

Mathilda posted an excellent analysis of how each person's content is guiding the overall discussion. I like the idea that scum are distracting us from scumhunting, and agree it's probably the best tell we have this early in the game. This is definitely the towniest post anyone's made so far, though I won't say I agree with her conclusion yet.

Town: Mathilda

I'll try to finish this within a few hours.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:12 pm UTC

Apologies for spamming. Revised (simplified) strategy:
Spoiler:
If Doctor makes a successful save N1 we vote No Lynch on D2 to avoid accidentally accusing and revealing Cop (with an even number of players No Lynch is a preferred option anyways, we just have to decide when to use it). Doctor should probably claim regardless whom s/he saved, if scum decides to kill him/her N2 we can be sure that Cop survives. This is not 100% clear-cut but I feel it offers the best chance.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Minestrone » Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:46 pm UTC

Vote: emlightened

For doubling down on lynching PRs. If you really think we're much more likely to be lynching scum than a PR you have way more faith in our scumhunting ability than I do. Also unless it's late in the game there's really no downside to letting scum live one night longer because the counterclaimer wasn't online in order to avoid lynching an actually non counterclaimed PR.

Town to Scum list:

TOWN
Sabrar
Mathilda
Jimbobmacdoodle
Carlington
Suzaku
ajh
Esthr
emlightened

General notes: Sabrar seems like the type of player who can look very townie even while scum (see also: mpolo), but that's not evidence for them being scum, and just a hunch in the first place, so just something to think about later on. ajh is definitely the kind of player who will look scummy even when town. I'm glad mathilda is doing analysis but their conclusion annoyed me, probably personal bias there.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Suzaku » Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:14 pm UTC

OK, thoughts on stuff and people (in no particular order).

Sabrar - Has been putting a lot of effort into finding and discussing strategies, but has also been doing player analysis. For the most part, they have been helpful to town (as far as I can see). No Lynch on D2 to attempt to ensure cop results is a gutsy call, and I'll have to think about it more, but my initial reaction is "No". In general No Lynch is going to benefit scum more than town, and there's certainly a strong belief around here that advocating it is scummy as all get out. I don't subscribe to that belief, and Sabrar's not pushing hard for it anyway, but I don't think it's a good plan.
Reasons: Things can go wrong that stop us getting a cop result anyway (cop gets NKed, cop's target gets NKed), the result may prove no to be very useful (town result on the doctor, who can be confirmed by claiming), and, more importantly, it denies us knowledge from looking at voting patterns and case building, as well as voluntarily giving up the only way we have to actually remove scum from the game. I could be convinced to NL D2, but there would have to be very, very good arguments.
Agree with most of his reads on other players, with the notable exception of jimbob, who also seems townie to me (on which, more in a minute).
Anyway, I have Sabrar pegged as town.

jimbobmacdoodle - As I said, I'm finding him townie as well. Has spent a lot of time arguing strategy with Sabrar, and where they disagree I would mostly agree with Sabrar, not jimbob. That said, I'm reading it a genuine discussion and an attempt to refine town strategy, rather than a scummy attempt to push bad strategy. There's a fine line, though, and I could, of course, be wrong. Has a couple of solid analysis posts, most of which I would broadly agree with.

Mathilda - Came in late, but with very good posts. Good analysis, and a very good point about not getting hung up on or bogged down in strategy/game mechanics. About my only concern is the lack of an actual vote on ajh (due to not unvoting initially) a good few posts after stating the intention to vote for him (and attempting to do so). I can understand the pause to wait for a response, but ajh has no other votes so why not apply a little pressure? Not a major thing, but maybe significant later, hence the note. Still, overall read is solidly town.

ajh - Agreeing with Mathilda, my best scum pick also. Has only three, very short posts, which (although on meta if jimbob is to be believed) don't advance the cause much. "Forgot the rest I had to say" really doesn't sit well with me, and other than that he's only asked a couple of safe questions and pushed sub-optimal town strategy (PRs not claiming before lynch). All in all:
Vote: ajh

From here on down, my reads are much less confident.
Carlington - Leaning town for that last post, but not really enough to go on. Has been sick, though, and RL trumps Mafia.

emlightened - Neutral to slightly scummy. Not sure what she's trying to say with some of her strategy posts, and gives me a bit of an 'active lurking' feel.

Esthr - Leaning scummy. Strategy contributions have been similar to ajh (and, IMO, not beneficial to town) and analysis has been very safe and not in much depth. Read could change with promised extra content, but at this point, maybe my second choice for scum.

Minestrone - Leaning Town. Only one post Ninja'd by second post. Solid analysis, and mostly in line with what I think. Would like to see more (Hello pot, I'm a kettle), but I like what I can see so far.

So in order:
Town
Suzaku
Sabrar
Mathilda
jimbobmacdoodle
Carlington
Minestrone
emlightened
Esthr
ajh
Scum
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Suzaku » Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:24 pm UTC

Unofficial Votals:

jimbobmacdoodle - 1 (Sabrar)
emlightened - 2 (jimbobmacdoodle, Minestrone)
ajh - 1 (Suzaku)

Not Voting (5) - ajh, Esthr, Carlington, Mathilda, emlightened

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:30 pm UTC

Quick check-in in response to Suzaku on ajh's meta. I've just sped through his most recent games, and he posted lots of short posts in those (I'm not sure the relative frequency in comparison to day length though). Big wall o' texts or lengthy analysis posts don't appear to be his thing. That said his current posting level seems lower and content less than in those (although I didn't specifically check his D1 meta). As a result of this, I'm willing to FoS ajh. I think emlightened is worse though.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Mathilda » Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:47 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: As a result of this, I'm willing to FoS ajh. I think emlightened is worse though.


I'm waiting for ajh to make an appearance and respond to my post before I vote for him. I like to rack up the pressure slowly :twisted:

I'm interested though why you think emlightened is worse.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:58 pm UTC

Mostly, it's because ajh suggests that PRs shouldn't claim, whereas emlightened actively says that a PR claim as defence is scummy. If someone claimed PR as a defence, ajh's response suggests that they would frown on it, but wouldn't instantly cry scum, but emlightened seems to think that we should definitely lynch them in that case, even without a counter-claim. I think ajh's opinion could be justified, but not emlightened's. Hence why I think worse of emlightened.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:12 pm UTC

Mathilda wrote:I'm waiting for ajh to make an appearance and respond to my post before I vote for him. I like to rack up the pressure slowly :twisted:

The way I'm reading this is that you're planning to vote ajh regardless of his reply. Do I understand you correctly?

@Suzaku: I'll gladly discuss the merits of a No Lynch if our Doctor gets a successful save. You raise valid points but looking at it from a percentage-based point-of-view I still think it's preferable.

@all: If Mathilda votes for ajh, there will be a tie between him and emlightened. Ties mean No Lynch which we definitely want to avoid D1. So we have to be extra careful that scum doesn't have the opportunity to cause a tie close to the deadline. So please vote as soon as you can!

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Mathilda » Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:34 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Mathilda wrote:I'm waiting for ajh to make an appearance and respond to my post before I vote for him. I like to rack up the pressure slowly :twisted:

The way I'm reading this is that you're planning to vote ajh regardless of his reply. Do I understand you correctly?


If ajh defends himself properly then I will look elsewhere.

But I do want the threat to be clear. I like how ajh said that PR's shouldn't claim, but I don't like how he has talked about generic game mechanics without scum hunting or trying to further town strategy. I want him to defend himself. I want ajh to give us a read list with explanations as to why. Regardless of what happens, this all generates useful information.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Esthr » Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:46 pm UTC

The deadline is much closer than I thought it was, so I'm kind of rushing to get this out.

emlightened- I honestly agree with most of the points she's made and it makes sense to me that we should view a PR claim lynch defense with skepticism. I do not agree with Minestrone's assessment. Leaning town to me.

ajh- Has made very few posts with very little content. His post that "townsfolk should just go down silently" feels very scummy. There really isn't much else to comment on.

Carlington- There isn't much to go on. His one serious post adds very little to the discussion and seems very safe. He promised to post more, but has not done so yet. Neutral, leaning scum.

Minestrone- Reading through, they hasn't actually contributed much. They introduced the "townies should never lie" rule, but the rest of their content seems directed against emlightened. While I can see their point, this feels like a weak reason to vote. Lacking any other content, moderately scum.

Suzaku- Solid, but sporadic, posts. I don't completely agree with his strategy analysis, but he was the first to start analyzing players and hasn't posted anything I strongly object to. Slightly town.


Town (from most to least likely): Mathilda, Sabrar, jimbob, emlightened, Suzaku
Scum (most to least): ajh, Minestrone, Carlington.

Vote: ajh


I'll try to check in before the deadline, but this might be my last post for the day.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby ajh » Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:49 pm UTC

Carlington: feels town, due to similar opinions (claims, scumhunting)
Mathilda: different playstyle to me. Didn't like the explicit outline of discussing strategy to find scum. Seems a bit tense about finding them
Minestrone: nothing incriminating.

Other reads soon. I'm the doc, by the way.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Suzaku » Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:54 pm UTC

Unvote: ajh
Vote: emlightened


I'd slightly prefer an Esthr lynch to emlightened, but don't want to set up another possible tie.
If you are not ajh and you are the doctor - CLAIM NOW!
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Suzaku » Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:55 pm UTC

EBWOP: And I'm now going to bed. Chances of me being awake for deadline: close to nil.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:11 pm UTC

@ajh: Don't post your remaining reads! We don't want scum to know who you're likely to protect!
And if you're scum your reads won't mean much anyways. :)


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