Alternating 9P Mafia - Game over - Town wins!

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Esthr
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Esthr » Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:04 pm UTC

ajh wrote:If scum counterclaimed when a real PR was about to get lynched, wouldn't they seal it (with our current MO)? I'm still convinced townsfolk should just go down silently, not even claiming under early pressure (which would be more believable than at the last second). No claim, no problems, such as scum leaving an accepted PR alive.


ajh, can you explain why you've decided to claim?

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby Minestrone » Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:00 pm UTC

Can confirm that I am not a doctor.

Esthr, given how late in the day it was getting and the fact that ajh was a top lynch candidate I don't blame them for claiming. Whether it was strategically sound or not, they're definitely town if no one counterclaims.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:40 pm UTC

Also not the doctor. I'd have loved to hear more from emlightened, but it doesn't look like anything is forthcoming. Nothing has changed so my vote stands.

Obviously UnFoS ajh pending any counter-claim.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby emlightened » Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:56 pm UTC

@ninja: here you go!

ajh wrote:Carlington: feels town, due to similar opinions (claims, scumhunting)
Mathilda: different playstyle to me. Didn't like the explicit outline of discussing strategy to find scum. Seems a bit tense about finding them
Minestrone: nothing incriminating.

Other reads soon. I'm the doc, by the way.



Wrote post on whether to lynch ajh, given the setup. I think actually, given that he's one of the scummier players, it could be worth the risk, but I'll finish analysing first. On the other hand, 5 of the 8 remaining players haven't counterclaimed but have posted, making it more likely it's truthful.
Spoiler:
I don't like this. At all. ajh claimed four hours before the deadline, which is hardly enough time for the real doctor to claim. Assuming that the docs follow Sabrar's strategy (which I agree with, but would definitely like second opinions on), and ajh is lying (he's the other scummiest person, and not without reason), we have a double doctor claim on D2, and a possible mislynch on D2, followed by the correct lynch on D3, brings us to 2 town vs 1 scum at the start of D4, a LYLO scenario.

ajh telling the truth would make sense, but it also opens up the possibility of a fake scum claim at the start of D2, which brings us back to the above scenario. Without scum tells (assuming we mislynch tonight), we're at a 50% chance of 4/1 (1 confirmed town) at the start of D3, and a 50% chance of 2/1 at the start of D4, which is LYLO.

The following will almost definitely put me down as scum to some people, but I think others will see my reasoning. If we lynch ajh now, then either he's scum, and we're at 6/1, with both PRs (very likely win) or he's telling the truth, and we're at 5/2, with no Doc PR.

I think there are a few scenarios. I've deliberately left out if a doc saves somebody, to simplify things. Tell me if I miss any of them:
  • ajh is a doc:
    • We mislynch ajh, bringing us to 5/2 with no doc.
    • We mislynch somebody else, bringing us to 5/2 with a doc, and probably a cop. If scum falseclaims, they can force it to a 4/1 or 2/1 LYLO, but pretending to be VTs could work just as well.
    • We lynch scum, bringing us to 6/1 with a cop.
  • ajh is scum
  • We lynch ajh, bringing us to 6/1 with both PRs.
  • We mislynch somebody else, bringing us to 5/2, probably with both a doc and cop. Real doc claims, and we either go to 4/1 or 2/1 LYLO, depending on whether we kill ajh first.
  • We lynch scumbuddy, real doc claims, guaranteed win.


Anyway, onto analysis:

Mathilda: Already done, but I just noticed that she didn't re-place her vote on ajh after (invalidly voting ajh then) unvoting jimbob. This seems to be accidental, because she didn't say why she didn't put the vote back on them, but I take it as a FoS on them.

Esthr: Says that only lynch defense being PR claim is absolutely scummy. Good analysis of all players, questions why ajh claimed PR. Definitely leaning town.

Suzaku: Good explaination of typical strategies, and points out that they may not apply in this scenario, but doesn't suggest what to actually do here. Good analysis on everyone. Transfers vote immediately after ajh claim. Leaning town.

Carlington: Only one post with content. Believes that Sabrar vs Suzaku is town vs town, disagrees with Mathilda's point on avoiding mechanic discussion. Leaning scum, due to lack of content.

ajh: The least content of anyone, but spread out across multiple posts. Contradicts self by claiming after posting earlier that PRs shouldn't claim except to get information out (see spoiler). 'Forgets what they had to say', is sketchy.
Spoiler:
ajh wrote:
Sabrar wrote:While there are advantages of e.g. not revealing a scum-result on the Cop's investigation from the start to see who defends that player from accusations, I
think it also provides scum more time to prepare a fake claim to confuse matters. Remember we want to trust investigation/save results. Giving scum more time
to think about what the best possible false-claim would be is counter-productive.
Should 2 players claim Cop in such a way I'm still inclined to believe the first one more (ceteris paribus) as it's extremely risky for scum to present a
false-claim without knowing the true result. If the cop happened to investigate his/her partner then it would be basically all over for them.
How exactly is it risky for scum to claim Cop? Or did I misunderstand your observation?

We should be careful with scum exploiting our guidelines (claiming etc.). Personally I think the PRs should only claim to get their intelligence out.
ajh wrote:If scum counterclaimed when a real PR was about to get lynched, wouldn't they seal it (with our current MO)? I'm still convinced townsfolk should just go down silently, not even claiming under early pressure (which would be more believable than at the last second). No claim, no problems, such as scum leaving an accepted PR alive.
Scummy.

Minestrone: Only a couple of posts, most content is on my PR-lynching strategy. Leaning scum, due to effective lack of content.

TOWN
emlightened
Mathilda
Esthr
Sabrar
Suzaku
jimbobmacdoodle
Carlington
Minestrone
ajh, despite doctor claim.
SCUM

Vote: ajh


Unofficial Votals:

jimbobmacdoodle - 1 (Sabrar)
emlightened - 3 (jimbobmacdoodle, Minestrone, Suzaku)
ajh - 2 (Esthr, emlightened)

Not Voting (4) - ajh, Carlington, Mathilda

9 alive, 5 to hammer


It's ten minutes until the deadline. If anyone feels strongly enough about the ajh vs emlightened votals to switch or force a No Lynch, then do so. Otherwise, lynch ajh when the doc counterclaims tomorrow, and bye!
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ConMan
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D1 - Mob justice

Postby ConMan » Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:25 pm UTC

Sunset came surprisingly late - over 24 hours after the predicted time. Despite this, everyone sat in silence pondering their decision to lynch emlightened. She was certainly the top candidate, given her persistence on how you should always stir your coffee seven times before drinking (as everyone knows, ten is the absolute minimum). Also something about killing people who say they've got power? In any case, she was the first to fall, but probably not the last.

Votes:

jimbobmacdoodle - 1 - Sabrar
emlightened - 3 - jimbobmacdoodle, Minestrone, Suzaku
ajh - 2 - Esthr, emlightened

emlightened has been lynched. It is now Night 1. Players may now submit actions and chat, where applicable. Deadline is in 24 hours, and this time I will actually be around for it. Countdown timer.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby ConMan » Sun Jan 24, 2016 11:38 pm UTC

In the morning, the townsfolk searched enemlightened's belongings, as is traditional, for proof that she was one of the big bad mafia goons. And it didn't take long before they found their proof - an editor's copy of "Thing Explainer" and a bottle of vodka that was almost entirely alcohol. But proof she belonged to the mafia? Not a jot. Maybe they were looking in the wrong place all along.

emlightened was Vanilla Town.

Esthr, who was apparently new in town and less experienced with the mob justice stuff, suddenly looked around. "Weren't there more of us before? Where's that guy, you know, jimbob?"

Suzaku, who had done this kind of thing before, just started counting down. "Three, two, o-..." *thud*. The body of jimbobmacdoodle fell out of a nearby tree. ajh, wearing a lab coat in deference to his claim the previous day, performed the post mortem.

"It's ok, he died of natural causes!"

Esthr was relieved, until Sabrar pointed out that in Randallsburg death by mafia kill was considered a natural cause.

Rooting through jimbob's stuff, they found nothing but a large bottle of natural flavouring.


jimbobmacdoodle was killed during the night. He was Vanilla Town.

At this point, they knew there wasn't much to do except keep doing what they'd always done. Besides, on Tuesdays there was always a barbecue just before the lynching.

7 players remain, 4 to hammer. Countdown timer.

Names other than ajh were chosen randomly, please don't read anything into them.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Esthr » Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:19 am UTC

Vote: ajh

I'll remove the vote if no one counter-claims shortly.

ajh, if you are the doctor, would you mind saying who you protected?

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:02 am UTC

Damn, this makes me 3/3 for attacking a town full-aggro on D1. At least now I can do voting/read analysis that worked in both my previous games.

By my count only Carlington and Mathilda didn't post after ajh's claim. Even if you don't have the time to contribute much, please just check-in to say whether you want to counterclaim or not!

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Carlington » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:29 am UTC

I'm on the bus home right now, but I don't want to counterclaim. There's going to be a lot more I have to say, but I'll do it in just a little while when I can comfortably switch tabs and type.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Mathilda » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:03 am UTC

My post keeps getting flagged as spam and being denied.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Mathilda » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:04 am UTC

I'm not going to counter claim afh. I generally just believe people who claim an established counter claim unless someone counter claims. It doesn't make sense that afh would have claimed doctor if he wasn't, whether scum or town.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Mathilda » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:05 am UTC

If he was scum then it would have drawn out the doctor, but scum would then have lost one of their players so town would have benefitted.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Mathilda » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:08 am UTC

Damn it! Why can't I post this last sentence?

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Suzaku » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:11 am UTC

Mathilda - try this tread: http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=87604

ajh - Please don't claim who you protected until we've discussed whether it's a good idea. For the record, I think it's not.

Doctor - if you're not ajh, you really need to claim now or we could easily lose twenty dollars and my self respect.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Suzaku » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:12 am UTC

EBWOP: damn filters, that's "the game" we could lose, not $20.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Mathilda » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:30 am UTC

Giving up now.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Mathilda » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:33 am UTC

And if perchance he is of the suburban persuasion rather than a dastardly scoundrel without scruples, then one explanation would be that it was a gambit to attract the attention of the nefarious underground types to perform their nocturnal deeds.

But he could have been CCed by the genuine medical practitioner and this would have led to a definite miscarriage of justice before sunset and the aforesaid member desisting in his sleep.


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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Mathilda » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:36 am UTC

Yay!

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:09 am UTC

@Suzaku: everybody had the chance to counter-claim by now, so I think we should consider ajh as confirmed Doctor now.

Evolution of voting/reads regarding emlightened
Spoiler:
- emlightened stipulates that claiming PR to avoid lynch is likely fake so we should ignore it (later she defends this idea multiple times, not going to include them from now on)
- Minestrone places FoS on her because of the above
- Mathilda has her slightly leaning town, because of the rest of her post
- jimbobmacdoodle finds her scummy for the same reasons as Minestrone and votes
- I find her scummy for the same but cautiously put it down to honest mistake.
- Minestrone follows up his FoS with a vote
- Suzaku puts her as possibly scummy due to perceived 'active lurking'
- Esthr takes emlightened's side and has her as town.
- Suzaku unvotes ajh after Doctor claim and votes emlightened. She's not her main suspect but wants to avoid a tie.
- emlightened post her final defense, still maintains that ajh is scum

In my opinion emlightened's idea of disregarding PR claim is terrible. Therefore I understand why people found her scummy and won't FoS anyone who voted for her on this alone. I don't like Esthr and ajh expressing the same kind of logic, but ajh is also Town so it looks like this again cannot be used to identify scum by itself.

Evolution of voting/reads regarding ajh
Spoiler:
- Mathilda starts with a vote because of possible signals to a scum-buddy and veering conversation away from strategic discussion (not actual vote due to 'legal' issues but can be considered as such)
- I find him scummy because of lurking and the 'forgot what I wanted' part
- Minestrone puts him towards the scummy side of his list (but we don't know his exact thoughts)
- Suzaku votes him because of the same reasons
- jimbobmacdoodle places FoS on him mainly for lurking
- Esthr votes him for same reasons as before
- ajh claims Doctor
- Suzaku unvotes
- Esthr does not unvote
- emlightened votes him (possibly just to survive but looks genuine)

There is basically noone who found ajh townie, so this again doesn't tell us much in itself.

To summarize: a confirmed townie (jimbobmacdoodle) voted for one of them and FoS-d the other. Another confirmed townie (emlightened) voted the other. Suzaku, Minestrone and me found both of them scummy. Mathilda and Esthr found emlightened townie but ajh scummy. We don't know anything about Carlington.

This has almost been an exercise in futility, but to me one significant point stands out. Esthr deciding not to unvote ajh set up the possibility of a tie at the end of the day, giving scum an additional kill while we would have debated once more which townie to lynch giving scum a significant advantage. Also her latest posts look to me like she's trying too hard wanting to stay consistent with her earlier opinions. Therefore:

FoS: Esthr

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Carlington » Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:31 am UTC

Sabrar, I can't quite see the logic behind your vote on Esthr. I can see what you're saying the reasons are, I mean, but I don't see the same things in Esthr's posts that you seem to. At the very least, I can see the merit in sticking to your guns, especially in a community where changing right before deadline often draws a lot of ire.
I'll say this: I'm also very interested to know why ajh decided to claim when he did, and I hope he sheds some light soon. I don't necessarily think his play was scummy (okay, that's a lie. I do think it was scummy, but I don't think I'll ever truly understand why ajh does the things he does on D1.)
emlightened, FWIW after the fact, I was reading as town.
Also reading town have been Sabrar and jimbob, both for strong analysis early on and giving people lots to talk about. Following them up are emlightened and Mathilda, Suzaku, Minestrone and then ajh. The further down that list you go, though, the fuzzier it gets. And what with ajh being confirmed town and whatnot, obviously we need to bump him up in the rankings a little bit. So provisionally:

Town
ajh
Sabrar/jimbob
Mathilda
Suzaku/Minestrone
Neutral - Mildly Scummy.

I don't think cop should claim on D3, unless they have a scum result. I do think cop should claim D5, as there will likely only be five players at that point and two results. Even if we're then at LYLO, the cop can confirm the other two town, or can confirm two scum, or can confirm one town and one scum. I believe that in all cases, even with counterclaims, this narrows the field of potential lynch targets to two. That's a lot better than the alternative, being at LYLO with four potential candidates.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:43 am UTC

@Carlington: First of all I didn't vote for Esthr yet, it was a FoS. Second, it is good to be consistent but starting the day with a vote on a claimed doctor is just too much in my opinion.

Also why on earth do you think there will be 5 people alive on D5??? D2 we have 7, we lynch one, scum probably kills the Doctor. We start D3 with 5 people, lynch one and scum kills one as there's no Doctor left to save, we have 3 people on D4 and the game ends one way or the other. I can see basically no scenarios when the game would last until D5, unless you advocate multiple No Lynches which would be a terrible idea.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Carlington » Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:50 am UTC

You didn't vote for Esthr yet, it was a FoS. I am just apparently bad at reading, and automatically parse bolded text as vote/unvote. Apologies for that, but even so, I don't see a vote making sense. Depending on what ajh has to say, though, and Esthr's reaction to it, that could change. It does strike me as odd that nobody would counterclaim, so I think ajh is town, but I am confused as to why he claimed when he did.

As for the D5 thing, I can honestly only say that that was my confusing myself over this alternating thing. I forgot to take it into account in my counting, and so only imagined there'd be a lynch and NK every second day. Obviously that't not the case, and what I was saying about 5 alive applies to D3 instead.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 25, 2016 1:03 pm UTC

I would like to explain step-by-step why the fact that nobody counter-claimed ajh means that he is definitely the real Doctor so we don't have to spend more time on this. Warning, contains some double-think:
Suppose Arthur is the real doctor and he sees ajh claiming. Arthur is Town and has no knowledge of ajh's real alignment. Multiple people expressed their very strong opinion that VT-s should never, ever lie. Therefore ajh knows that the real Doctor is very unlikely to consider the possibility that he (ajh) could be VT, meaning that he will definitely counter-claim to catch scum. So ajh as VT will never claim Doctor (or rather: should never claim) as that will only lead to outing the real Doctor and possibly mislynching twice (suppose we believe ajh, lynch Arthur first, find out he was Doctor, lynch ajh second). Therefore Arthur seeing someone else claiming to be Doctor can be 99,999% sure that that person is scum.
Now why would Arthur not reveal himself at this point? Having no counterclaim people would accept ajh's false claim in good faith, and lynch someone else, greatly increasing the chance of a mislynch. If Arthur never claims, Town just loses as ajh will never die. The longer he waits to counter-claim the less believable he will sound and the chance that we will lynch him instead of ajh just increases.
Summary: if ajh is VT, false-claiming is a terrible idea and should not be considered. Therefore if ajh is false-claiming, the real Doctor should immediately counter-claim. If he doesn't, we will just lose. The only way it could work out to our benefit is if ajh as VT would be assured that the real Doctor knows that he isn't scum and therefore won't counter-claim. However at this stage it would require outside knowledge for the VT and the Doctor to cooperate in that way.

And now I'll shut up about it and let others chime in.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Carlington » Mon Jan 25, 2016 1:50 pm UTC

I agree that ajh is confirmed town doctor, that's uncontroversial at this point. I'd like to hear from ajh why he claimed when he did, and I'd like to hear Esthr's response to this, before I say any more on that topic.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Suzaku » Mon Jan 25, 2016 1:58 pm UTC

So, I don't have as much time as I'd like this evening, as I've got a meeting at oh-stupid o'clock tomorrow and I really need to sleep.

As a follow-on to Sabrar's excellent post, I'd just like to explain why the real doctor not claiming now loses us the game:
If ajh is not the doctor he is scum. Good townies don't lie. If ajh is VT claiming doctor he's thrown the game.
If there's no counterclaim, we will (not can, not should, will) believe that he's really the doctor.

So the current situation is as follows:
7 alive, including cop, doctor.ajh, 3 VT, and 2 scum.
We may or may not lynch scum today; it's 2 in 6, so not bad odds.
If we don't, then D3 is the worst case: 3/2 LYLO (remember, no doctor action tonight). We won't lynch ajh, so we have a 3/4 chance of instantly losing. If we don't (i.e. we hit scum) it's likely 2/1 LYLO on D4, or best case (with a doctor save) 3/1 MYLO. We can drag it out, but as long as we don't lynch ajh (which we won't, what with us all believing he's the doctor), we still lose.
If we manage to hit scum today, it's better, but not by much. And the end result is the same; unless we lynch ajh we lose.

So final call - if you are the doctor and you are not ajh, claim.
(I believe at this point that ajh is the genuine doctor, but since there has been some argument over counterclaiming I want to nail that coffin well and truly shut.)

Next point:
Should ajh claim who he tried to protect last night?
I would argue no. I can't see how that information would be useful to town. The fact that it wasn't successful very slightly elevates his target's chance of being scum, but not by a significant amount. It only serves to tell scum who he thinks is town, and (since if he has a read on the cop he should have protected that person) who he thinks might be the cop. Assuming that his read is good, this is not information we should be giving to scum.
I'd be willing to change my view on this point, it's not axiomatic, but I'd need to see some great argument for how that knowledge would help town.

So, picks:
I preferred an Esthr lynch to emlightened yesterday, and her opening post today certainly has done nothing to change that, what with arguing bad strategy, fishing for info that's only useful to scum, and voting for a (basically) confirmed doctor.
@Esthr, the only possible reason I can see for town!Esthr voting for ahj is if you are the real doctor. If that is the case, you absolutely must claim in your next post.
Currently Esthr is my top (only?) pick for scum, and I would be voting except that there's no real need at this point; there's plenty of time left.

If I had to vote for my second choice, it would be a coin-toss between Carlington and Minestrone, but that's mainly process of elimination, rather than anything solid about their posts.

Town:
Suzaku / ajh <- Both confirmed fmpov
Sabrar / Mathilda <- Both solid reads
Carlington / Minestrone <- Both slightly sketchy, but nothing conclusive
Esthr <- Yeah, I'll eat my hat if I'm wrong territory.
:Scum

Alright, see you all tomorrow.

Ninja: I won't put words in either's mouth, so saying nothing.
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Esthr
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Esthr » Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:31 pm UTC

Everyone has posted since ajh's claim and no one has counter-claimed, so
Unvote: ajh

I honestly thought there would be a counter-claim, which is why I voted, but at this point I agree ajh is pretty much confirmed doctor. I asked him to post his N1 target for a couple reasons. One, I wanted more content from ajh. Any content, really. He hasn't posted anything since his claim at the end of D1. Two, if he is the doctor, he has a good chance of being killed tonight and I didn't see a reason to withhold information.

However, I hadn't considered that he might have an idea about who the cop is, so I withdraw my request.

Wait a minute. Can we talk about why ajh isn't dead already? Why was jimbob a bigger target than ajh?

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:56 pm UTC

Esthr wrote:Wait a minute. Can we talk about why ajh isn't dead already? Why was jimbob a bigger target than ajh?

Contrary to the normal role, in this setup the Doctor is allowed to protect himself. I guess scum didn't want to risk it.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Minestrone » Mon Jan 25, 2016 5:39 pm UTC

At this point I would definitely find Esthr scummy but a) she's a new player and therefore harder to predict/more liable to appear scummy no matter the alignment and b) on a meta level, lynching someone new for acting new in a newbie game seems like a not-so-welcoming thing to do.

I like Mathilda's approach to the game so far. I'm starting to get creeping doubts about Sabrar but not enough to make me want to lynch them today. I think I would probably want to lynch one of Carlington or Suzaku. I haven't thought about which much yet but I'll have some time for that later today.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:22 pm UTC

Minestrone wrote:b) on a meta level, lynching someone new for acting new in a newbie game seems like a not-so-welcoming thing to do.

Says the person who killed me N2 in my second game. :roll:
(I know, I know, completely different situation. :D )

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Esthr » Tue Jan 26, 2016 1:20 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Esthr wrote:Wait a minute. Can we talk about why ajh isn't dead already? Why was jimbob a bigger target than ajh?

Contrary to the normal role, in this setup the Doctor is allowed to protect himself. I guess scum didn't want to risk it.

I see. I didn't think of that possibility.

I really wanted to post more today, but I was just too busy. I should have more time tomorrow.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 26, 2016 8:16 am UTC

Esthr wrote:One, I wanted more content from ajh. Any content, really. He hasn't posted anything since his claim at the end of D1. Two, if he is the doctor, he has a good chance of being killed tonight and I didn't see a reason to withhold information.

This one I can agree with. We don't need to know who ajh targeted but he should really finish his reads on the other players.

Minestrone wrote:b) on a meta level, lynching someone new for acting new in a newbie game seems like a not-so-welcoming thing to do.

Serious reply this time.
a) in theory this is a very respectable idea, in practice I don't want to lose just because we were nice to a new player
b) Esthr is new to this forum but by her own admission has played online mafia before so she isn't a complete newbie

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Esthr » Tue Jan 26, 2016 1:56 pm UTC

Eight years ago, I played a few games of mafia on a small forum, and the games were focused on roleplay rather than deep analysis. That being said, please do not give me special treatment for being new, especially in a newbie game full of other supposedly newbie players. </meta>

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Mathilda » Tue Jan 26, 2016 2:34 pm UTC

This is the problem of lynching based on the strategy that people advocate. You also need to take into account people's experience. And most of it is academic anyway because it all just plays out as it will regardless. I find only in rare and very specific circumstances is a successful strategy created and adhered to by town. And then scum need to be really subtle in trying to subvert that strategy.

But we have some information now, I think we need to start drilling into people as to why they voted emlightened, and why they stayed off the wagon.

I certainly didn't agree with emlightened that the doctor should claim on day 3 with their night 2 results, but I didn't think that it was a scum tell. I just assumed that it was said by someone who hadn't really thought through what the consequences of doing so. I was more interested in motivation, whether she displayed doubt and whether she was trying to figure things out.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Esthr » Tue Jan 26, 2016 3:07 pm UTC

Updated list.

Sabrar- He continues D2 with strong analysis and scum-hunting, though I obviously disagree with his suspicion. This could be him leading a lynch against someone who no one thinks is very towny, but it really doesn't feel that way. I still have Sabrar as strongly town.

Mathilda- I disagree that ajh wouldn't claim doctor as scum. He was about to be lynched anyway so scum!ajh would have helped his buddy by drawing out the real doctor. This really doesn't matter at this point, though. Mathilda hasn't posted much else on D2, so my last read on her still stands; strong town.

ajh- This isn't up for discussion anymore. With no counter-claims, ajh is confirmed town doctor.

Carlington- He responds to Sabrar's FoS and questions his reasons, which I admit helps me a bit. I believe his D3/D5 mixup was an honest mistake, so I won't bother with that. In general, he is more active on D2 so far, and has more questions, but hasn't really posted much analysis. Pretty neutral right now.

Minestrone- Same as D1, they haven't really contributed much, but have promised more content later. They have doubts about Sabrar, which I'd like to hear more about. There's nothing specific, but without more content, they are leaning slightly scum.

Suzaku- So their initial read on me D1 had me as leaning scum, but was waiting for the rest of my analysis. After I finished my analysis (just before ajh's claim), he says he would prefer to lynch me over emlightened. Presumably, he didn't like my reads, but he never explains his reasoning. At the beginning of D2, I ask ajh for his target without thinking about how that info would benefit scum. He rightfully jumps on me for this, but his suspicion feels off compared to Sabrar's. The fact that he didn't vote if he feels that strongly also bothers me. Leaning scum.

Town
ajh
Sabrar
Mathilda
Neutral / Carlington
Minestrone
Suzaku
Scum

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Esthr » Tue Jan 26, 2016 3:09 pm UTC

FoS: Suzaku

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Minestrone » Tue Jan 26, 2016 9:06 pm UTC

Well, my point a) still stands. If I really thought she was scum I'd want to lynch her but it seems more likely to be a case of scummy-looking new town, point b) was more that it would be a particularly bad mislynch, not that it would be a bad lynch if she was scum.

I wasn't able to get to the analysis of Suzaku and Carlington yesterday. So here it is now. Suzaku's content is better and more detailed than Carlington's, although Carlington does have real world justification for some of that. I understand I'm not in the best position to judge people on lack of content but I know I'm town and right now Carlington is looking the lurkiest to me. These days are so short I don't feel like I have much to go on other than that, therefore:

Vote: Carlington

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:07 am UTC

Updated thoughts as deadline is approaching fast.

ajh: complete lurker, would be obvious lynch-target given other circumstances. This way it's just frustrating as hell.

Carlington: D5 stuff is probably honest mistake as scum could be absolutely sure that someone would notice it. If honest mistake then it would probably mean he's town as otherwise he wouldn't get confused of when he can kill. At this point it becomes WIFOM territory whether scum would pretend to make this mistake. Other than that there's not much to go on, although it seems very convenient that he only finishes his reads after D1 is over. Leaning slightly scummy because of this but I simply can't read him.

Esthr: her defense of her actions hits the right notes to make me want to believe her. The FoS on Suzaku however is OMGUS at its fullest as it only focuses on a single aspect of his posts. I'm quite certain that Esthr vs Suzaku is not the case of town vs town and currently Suzaku looks way more townier to me so I still think she's scum.

Mathilda: very little contribution on D2. What she says sounds reasonable but I would really like her to provide more content. Still, nothing changed my previous read of her as town.

Minestrone: My main problem with their content (also mentioned by Esthr) is that they didn't really do much analysis on their own and we have no idea on what they base their conclusions. They are apologetic of lurking but still want to vote another lurker. This just doesn't feel right to me. Currently leaning scum, although personal bias is definitely a factor here.

Suzaku: good arguments regarding why ajh shouldn't claim his target to be protected. My only issue with him is his absolute conviction of Esthr being scum but I know the feeling so can understand. Should Esthr somehow turn up to be Town he would jump to the front of my scum-list, otherwise I still read him as strong townie.

@ConMan: could we have a mod-prod on ajh please?

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Carlington » Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:53 am UTC

It's looking like we're not going to get any more from ajh, which is a shame. It seems like he's already resigned himself to the NK and figured there was no point saying any more. The reason I was holding out is because I wanted to see how various people reacted to ajh's reasons for claiming. Particularly Esthr. Why he claimed doesn't really matter all that much to me in itself, but I thought there could still be valuable information to be gained from others' responses and I wanted to have that information before forging on ahead.

Nonetheless, on I must now forge. Honestly, Esthr's looking scummiest to me, even after backing down from ajh. There's too many things in a row being passed off as "I hadn't considered that". Good town play, in my mind, would involve thinking very very hard before voting for a doctor who hasn't been counterclaimed. Following on from that, while I'm well aware there's probably a subconscious element of OMGUS in this, Minestrone seems to be coming up with reasons not to vote Esthr, none of which really have any grounding in the actual game. It comes off as "Sure, it looks bad..." and doesn't give me the good towny feelys in my tummy. My reads on Mathilda and Sabrar haven't really changed, and I find myself agreeing a little more with Suzaku today than yesterday. All things considered, and with the knowledge that I might not be able to come back before deadline once I go to sleep tonight, I'm going to

Vote: Esthr

I'll hopefully be here more before I go to bed, and I'll likely be up before deadline although possibly not online since that's getting-ready-for-work time in my timezone.
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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Mathilda » Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:41 am UTC

I admit that I'm having a little trouble in this game because everyone's so nice. Normally I would be laying the pressure on quite thickly and making people crack. I'm not sure that this tactic would be appreciated here though! So I've been reading people's posts and trying to see any particular scum-tell. But it's difficult when I don't know their style of play or how experienced they are. I shall go over people's posts again more closely.

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Re: Alternating 9P Mafia - D2 - Milla Vanilla

Postby Mathilda » Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:51 am UTC

Esthr wrote:FoS: Suzaku


I find this kind of odd. You give an explanation in your previous post regarding your concerns of Suzaku:

Esthr wrote:Suzaku- So their initial read on me D1 had me as leaning scum, but was waiting for the rest of my analysis. After I finished my analysis (just before ajh's claim), he says he would prefer to lynch me over emlightened. Presumably, he didn't like my reads, but he never explains his reasoning. At the beginning of D2, I ask ajh for his target without thinking about how that info would benefit scum. He rightfully jumps on me for this, but his suspicion feels off compared to Sabrar's. The fact that he didn't vote if he feels that strongly also bothers me. Leaning scum.



... but then put him at the bottom of your town list, rather than null or scum:

Esthr wrote:Town
ajh
Sabrar
Mathilda
Neutral / Carlington
Minestrone
Suzaku
Scum


So what made you change from bottom of the town list to being suspicious of him? The most I can see for this is your impression that his suspicion feels 'off' and that he does not explain himself.


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