PyPokemon 2 [Game Over: This Was a Triumph]

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Snark » Mon Feb 22, 2016 5:12 pm UTC

Deadline in ~2.5 days. (exactly 6 days from D2 beginning post)

7 alive, 4 to lynch.

jimbobmacdoodle is immune to votes and the lynch today.

Votals:
Esthr - 1 - (SirGabriel)
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Esthr » Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:48 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:Aurorus was one of the two roles she rejected.

Raichu was also a rejected role.

That's what I get for rushing.

D2 analysis

Carlington- Targeted jimbob. His wording, "I want to hear from everybody today before I post anything substantial," seems to imply he got a result of some kind. Rejected Raichu, which would have been a decent investigative power, but jimbob agrees Carlington's chosen role is more useful [to town]. Moderate town.

mpolo- Did not target anyone. Content is still light and doesn't have much original content. Still feels like active lurking, but he did vote for Sabrar, leaving him neutral or slightly town.

adnapemit- Targeted jimbob and gave him lynch immunity. Not sure I like this. It's was a waste to use on jimbob who was unlikely to be lynched anyway, but jimbob did ask to be targeted so this doesn't mean much. However, the power itself is useful to scum (in the event two of them were alive) and detrimental to town. On the other hand, the rejected roles (if truthful) would have been worse for town, so I'm leaving it at neutral.

dimochka- Could not target anyone. Almost certainly not scum for reasons already stated today. Town or independent.

SirGabriel- Targeted jimbob and gave him a beneficial item. Could have given a deadly item but didn't, which looks good but does not completely offset the other reasons I gave at the beginning of the day. It would be perfectly reasonable for scum to play safe and get on jimbob's good side and too much of his content has pinged me already. Slightly scum.

jimbobmacdoodle- Has a powerful investigative role. Scum would use the ability to find strong town power roles, but it relies on being targeted by others and scum wouldn't give away as much information as jimbob has. Strong town.

Town
jimbob
dimochka
Carlington
mpolo
adnapemit
SirGabriel
Scum

The deadline seems to be approaching.
Vote: SirGabriel

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:12 pm UTC

So, I've thought a little bit more about the knowledge I have along with people's claims and so on. SirGabriel's ability could be useful to town or scum. However, I don't think it likely that he'd announce that he'd have given me a gift unprompted, if it were poisoned. Now, it is possible as I said before that he is using it as an attempt to lure people into a false sense of security, but I don't think it's that likely.

I've figured out a reason why scum might choose Carlington's ability, so it doesn't give him a complete free pass. I think it unlikely they'd have chosen it, but I also don't know anything about him beyond the ability he targeted me with (the same goes for SirGabriel and Carlington). Please don't assume that because he has a townie looking ability that he is guaranteed town therefore.

Adnapemit's ability is potentially quite dangerous in the hands of scum, if there are at least two left, but becomes pretty insignificant if on their own. I'm not sure it's all that useful to town, unless adnapemit has further information about people's alignments, e.g. because she is a mason. On the other hand, neither was Mew's, and questionably Aurorus's, assuming she is telling the truth.

I also thought a little more about people choosing to target me. It is likely that anybody who saw my request to target me would consider why I made such a request. The logical conclusion is that I get some sort of benefit from people doing so. I therefore think that scum would be unlikely to target me with non-kill abilities for fear of helping me, who they know not to be on their team. So, all three get town points for doing so.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby mpolo » Tue Feb 23, 2016 9:55 am UTC

The assumption with you asking for people to target you would be that either:
1) you gained powers from the targetting
2) you got information about the people who targeted you

As you seem to be pretty townie, I would think that scum would be less likely to be willing to risk either of those outcomes, unless they were going to use a killing power on you. I take it that emlightened did NOT target you, as you said that exactly three targeted you.

This is leaving Esthr as the most likely scum. I will go ahead and put a second vote there. There is plenty of time to change this if necessary.

Vote: Esthr
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby dimochka » Tue Feb 23, 2016 3:51 pm UTC

@Jimbob - I would not actually be surprised if scum targeted you, because it was a calculated risk that more than one person will target you, thereby making the chance of investigation low. Plus it is possible that you could see who did and who did not target you, and with the discussion of powers pretty open, it may be a bigger flag not to have targeted you. So I don't think the three who did are in the clear, but I agree they are a bit more townie for that.

SirGabriel has been pretty forthcoming this entire day, and his responses seem to be pretty rational, so he does not look like frantic scum to me afraid to be killed. It would be quite interesting if Esthr is scum. Do you really think Sabrar would use his ability to chat with his existing teammate just to create this extra layer that would make us suspect her less? Or is Esthr some kind of SK? I'm re-reading her currently.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Feb 23, 2016 3:57 pm UTC

For me, the most likely reasoning would be to allow day chat with each other. I'm assuming scum only have night chat, which I think is the norm in regular (i.e. not nightless) games. I'm also planning on re-reading Esthr this evening.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Feb 23, 2016 10:16 pm UTC

Ok here's my thoughts on Esthr following a read through. Warning - tunneling likely! To try and combat this, I'm going to divide up my thoughts into reasons why she is town, and why she is scum, rather than go in looking for only one side.

Notes:
Spoiler:
Post 1: Up for discussing rejected roles "gives good idea of what powers might be in play". Thanks 6/2/1 most likely.
Post 2: Lying in rejections leads to confusion, revealing one role preferable.
Post 3: Rejected Delphox (delayed kill, not usable consecutive nights), because wouldn't make very good vigilante.
Post 4: Can't guess someone's exact role. Suggests evaluating reasons for rejections. Expected super effective abilities.
Post 5: Thinks lack of rejected roles means good results N2.
Post 6: FoS SirGabriel, for suggesting townies lie, premature vote on emlightened. Promises analysis post (Wed eve UTC).
Post 7: (Thurs pm UTC) Repeats belief that reasons for rejected roles more important. Analyses them. SirGabriel (slightly), emlightened (slightly) scummy; Sabrar (moderately), me (medium-high), mpolo (leaning), Carlington (leaning) town; adnapemit, dimochka neutral. Double-FoS SirGabriel for extremely defensive post in response to her earlier FoS.
Post 8: Disagrees with trying to guess people's chosen roles based on rejections. Not opposed to role claim from dimochka. Concerned about's dim's later power. Doesn't see how fits with PGO.
Post 9: No content.
Post 10: Confirms Sabrar as chat partner. Absolutely confident that Sabrar is town due to chat interaction.
Post 11: Highlights why she thinks Sabrar is town for not taking advantage of ability to fish role. Encourages everyone to unvote him.
Post 12: "Panic mode", insufficient time to do full analysis. Believes at least one, perhaps two scum voting for Sabrar. Looks at those four (me, adanapemit, emlightened, mpolo). Feels adnapemit's and mpolo's weak, mine legitimate, emlightened's seems like bandwagoning.
Post 13: Can't trust Sabrar in future. dimochka pretty much confirmed town. Evidence against SirG pretty damning. Brings up earlier beliefs on SirGabriel, and that she changed them because of her chat with Sabrar. Sees SirGabriel and Sabrar focusing on same people. Looks like final vote attempt to save Sabrar. FoSses SirGabriel. Did not target me or dimochka.
Post 14: Thinks emlightened might have been actual target. Doesn't think there's a second anti-town faction, but dimochka could be independent. Gets very confused after multiple mis-reads. Wants to know why Carlington hadn't posted his results. Also wants more info from SirGabriel.
Post 15: Does D2 analysis. Carlington (moderate), mpolo (slightly/neutral), dimochka (or independent) town, me (strong); adnapemit neutral; SirGabriel (slightly) scum. Votes SirGabriel.

Reasons why Esthr is town:
Against lying about roles. Rejected kill ability.
Gives solid analysis post analysing reasons for rejection of roles. (I had her as my top town yesterday due to this).
Chat logs would be a lot of work to fake as scum.
Her reactions could be interpreted as truly convinced town (that's how I viewed it D1, and early D2, until it was suggested that scum might have faked the whole conversation), rather than scum protecting their scum buddy.
Would a scum really be that obvious about defending their scum buddy?
Has posted an analysis of all players today.

Reasons why Esthr is scum:
Had Sabrar as second strongest town (if I'm interpreting correctly), after me.
Over-states how defensive SirGabriel was in response to her FoS.
Double-FoSses SirGabriel, rather than voting him.
Absolutely confident Sabrar is town, due to chat log.
Doesn't seem to consider that Sabrar was avoiding role-fishing in the chat log.
Very defensive of Sabrar.
Gives much more explanation for why emlightened's vote on Sabrar was bad than the apparently also weak votes of mpolo and adnapemit. Perhaps trying to justify voting for emlightened, who already had Sabrar voting for her.
Feels like she is role-fishing when asking Carlington and SirGabriel questions.
She posted an analysis post today, but I'm not sure there's all that much original content in it.
About the only player who really feels like they could be scum-buddies with Sabrar (Carlington, SirGabriel, adnapemit targeted me; adnapemit, mpolo voted Sabrar; dimochka was heavily focused on by Sabrar D1).

I'm still concerned that I'm tunnelling too much, but I feel that the evidence of her being scum outweighs her being town by quite some margin. I don't see any reason to put Esthr at L-1 for now, given the lack of any other wagons, but I expect to vote in time for the deadline (i.e. tomorrow evening some time).

In the meantime: FoS Esthr

I'm a little concerned by the lack of any other lynch candidates, apart from SirGabriel, who was also my early suspicion today, before I did some more thinking, but that might just be the paranoid part of me thinking that we are all tunnelling too much, and not that we all have the same correct conclusion!

@everyone - Could everyone please post whether they think Esthr is scum, and why please? Could they also please be careful to make sure they look at others, please!

Current town to scum list, mostly based on gut feeling and quick flick throughs:
Town
jimbobmacdoodle
Carlington (targeted me with a very townie power, on the other hand no real opinions of anyone posted today)
SirGabriel (felt like Sabrar's team-mate in the immediate aftermath of N1, but targeted me, presumably with something beneficial, and I feel slightly better about his D2 content)
adnapemit (targeted me last night, and voted Sabrar, both pretty townie things to do, but I just flicked back through her D2 posts and she has posted almost no analysis of anyone)
mpolo (content feels a little lighter than usual, but voted Sabrar)
dimochka (was focused on by Sabrar a lot, but not actually voted for by him)
Esthr (see above)
Scum

To be honest, I'm struggling to place everyone apart from Esthr and dimochka on that list. In part, this is due to little player analysis today.

@Carlington, adnapemit, dimochka, please post some reads of people.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Esthr » Tue Feb 23, 2016 11:37 pm UTC

I was really hoping to live until D3, but here we go. I am Ho-Oh. I cannot revive the dead, but I can prevent death. Each night I can target someone and they will be immune to night kills for the following two nights.

I targeted SirGabriel on N1. You can figure out why by process of elimination, but I'll explain for completeness. I was suspicious of adnapemit, emlightened, and mpolo, who all voted for Sabrar. Carlington had very little content and was voting for me. Dimochka was out of the question. Between jimbob and SirGabriel, jimbob's vote on Sabrar made me question his request to be targeted, so I chose SirGabriel. I regret that decision for several reasons.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Esthr » Tue Feb 23, 2016 11:41 pm UTC

Rejected roles:
Delphox can target someone to kill on any night in the future(; some people seem to have misunderstood this slightly), once per two nights. Gardevoir has a similar power except she roleblocks instead, and the power is usable every night.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Carlington » Wed Feb 24, 2016 1:00 am UTC

I need to reread properly and make a decent post. At the moment based on a flash gut feeling I suspect SirG and Esthr, but I will post properly after work and give actual reads.

Ninja'd by Esthr: Hm. That's not the kind of power scum would really pick, for the same reason as I rejected Snorlax - scum doesn't really need NK immunity, lynch protection is more useful. Obviously there's a barrel or two of wine involved there, so it's now all the more pressing (ha! wine, pressing) that I try and get some proper updated reads going.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Snark » Wed Feb 24, 2016 2:12 am UTC

Deadline in ~1 day, 3 hours. (exactly 6 days from D2 beginning post)

7 alive, 4 to lynch.

jimbobmacdoodle is immune to votes and the lynch today.

Votals:
Esthr - 2 - (SirGabriel, mpolo)
SirGabriel - 1 - (Esthr)
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:10 am UTC

Esthr wrote:I am Ho-Oh. I cannot revive the dead, but I can prevent death. Each night I can target someone and they will be immune to night kills for the following two nights.

I'm pretty sure this is just a made-up role, hoping we will believe it and not lynch the doctor. But all the other roles people have claimed are weaker than the standard cop/vig/etc. equivalents (other than adnapemit's version of Mew, which I would say is equal to a standard godfather). I highly doubt that Snark would have put a double-strength-doctor power in the game.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Feb 24, 2016 8:52 am UTC

I agree with SirG. That role feels too strong given the other roles I know of.

@Esthr, to clarify, does your role prevent death, say N2 and N3, if you targeted someone N2, or N3 and N4? Also, why did you announce your target?

As a thought, if we want to avoid lynching a powerful role (if true), we could always lynch someone else (or No Lynch), and have Esthr target me. If I somehow survive the night, I'll be able to confirm her role, at least (though not her alignment, so it doesn't rule her out as scum). On the other hand, if she doesn't target me, or I die, we can lynch her tomorrow.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Feb 24, 2016 9:33 am UTC

Esthr wrote:mpolo: Rejected an AoE vigilante power, because it would cause havoc with town aligned roles. This ability is guaranteed to hit at least one town (unless mafia target mafia for some reason), so I completely agree with his reasoning. Leaning town
Just remembered that I spotted this possible scum slip yesrerday from Esthr. How would this guarantee hitting town, if town!mpolo targeted scum?
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Esthr » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:30 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Esthr, to clarify, does your role prevent death, say N2 and N3, if you targeted someone N2, or N3 and N4?

I targeted SirGabriel on N1. He was still vulnerable on N1, but is now immune on N2 and N3. That's the balancing factor; scum can still kill my target before the protection activates.

Because of this, if I target jimbob tonight scum will have two options. Either kill you before the protection kicks in, or kill me to prevent use of my power in the future.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Also, why did you announce your target?

Because I thought my target would be obvious anyway and because I don't think SirGabriel is at risk of being night killed.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby adnapemit » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:40 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Esthr wrote:mpolo: Rejected an AoE vigilante power, because it would cause havoc with town aligned roles. This ability is guaranteed to hit at least one town (unless mafia target mafia for some reason), so I completely agree with his reasoning. Leaning town
Just remembered that I spotted this possible scum slip yesrerday from Esthr. How would this guarantee hitting town, if town!mpolo targeted scum?
I had to reread that a few times until I saw it. But I'm glad you spotted it.

I think Esthr is definitely scum.
Vote: Esthr.

Esthr:
The best argument for Esthr being town would be Sabrar choosing as a chat buddy she also has lots of analysis and willingness to participate.
I reread the chat logs and they seem odd when you know Sabrar is definitely mafia. Claimed role of Ho-oh doesn't seem right.(But if anyone did pick Ho-oh, I'm really not sure what ability it would have)
Ranked me neutral but I'm second scummiest on her list. (Although everyone other than SirG was ranked town so this isn't as bad as it might appear)

jimbobmacdoodle: If he isn't town then he's a very scary mafia player.

SirGabriel: If jimbob is certain that it is the good gift and not the bad gift the it does make him look better but since Sabrar was lynched day 1 then maybe he is trying to lay low. He's still my next suspect after Esthr but his honesty is good and does make him look quite town.

Carlington:I don't know what his ability is but if revealing it is not beneficial to town then that's ok. I also have to assume since it didn't kill jimbob that his actions weren't anti-town. I think not choosing Raichu was a good choice.

mpolo: Missed part of my post but voted for Sabrar. Most of the post are quite short but nothing obviously scummy. Neutral reading but if we end up having to find a third mafia player then I'd say it's mpolo

dimochka: PGO claim is believable but as I mentioned earlier there plenty of time before lynch and Sabrar ended up voting for emlightened. But I don't see the need for scum to target each other so strongly that early on so probably town.


----------------------

I think I forgot to mention why I picked the no lynch over the no votes. I saw the chances of removing the votes of two town players(me and another) as too high, the no lynch seemed like I would be less likely to mess up too much. If I could guarantee that I could pick mafia then it would have been a different decision. I also liked the pokémon more(Diancie) and I have no other abilities.
I think it was the better choice as it also had the unexpected benefit of being something harmless to target people with.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Esthr » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:53 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Esthr wrote:mpolo: Rejected an AoE vigilante power, because it would cause havoc with town aligned roles. This ability is guaranteed to hit at least one town (unless mafia target mafia for some reason), so I completely agree with his reasoning. Leaning town
Just remembered that I spotted this possible scum slip yesrerday from Esthr. How would this guarantee hitting town, if town!mpolo targeted scum?


I think I was assuming you would only choose that power to take advantage of the AoE effect. If town!mpolo targeted scum and hoped no one else targeted them, he would make a very weak vigilante.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:58 am UTC

Just to highlight that this puts Esthr at L-1, so please nobody hammer for now.

A note on the possible scum slip: I don't think this makes Esthr any more scum, more that if she flips scum, and there's a third one out there, we should take a look back at mpolo. I do agree that it is entirely possible to be a genuine mistake that town could make as well.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Snark » Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:19 pm UTC

Deadline in ~17 hours. (exactly 6 days from D2 beginning post)

7 alive, 4 to lynch.

jimbobmacdoodle is immune to votes and the lynch today.

Votals:
Esthr - 3 - (SirGabriel, mpolo, adnapemit)
SirGabriel - 1 - (Esthr)
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:27 pm UTC

@SirGabriel - a thought that just occurred to me was that I may have been incorrectly assuming something about the deadly version of your gift. If I use it, are the fatal effects instant, or do they occur that night?
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Feb 24, 2016 2:40 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@SirGabriel - a thought that just occurred to me was that I may have been incorrectly assuming something about the deadly version of your gift. If I use it, are the fatal effects instant, or do they occur that night?

At the end of whatever day or night you use it. So if you're afraid that it might be deadly, it's probably better to use it during the day: it's hard to determine who caused which night kill, but I suspect I have the only ability that can cause someone to mysteriously die at the end of the day.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Feb 24, 2016 3:05 pm UTC

Ok, thank you. I doubt you poisoned it, (unless you're a jester!), but to revise my earlier statement, if I fall over about the same time as the lynch candidate (on any given day), please lynch SirGabriel the next day.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby mpolo » Wed Feb 24, 2016 5:43 pm UTC

Esthr's claimed power does indeed look badly overpowered. I suppose there would be some balance possible, in that you have to protect on a hunch and that holds through for two nights, possibly after you've already decided not to protect that person. But unless there is a vigilante, which was by no means guaranteed, there would really be no down side to targetting scum with such a power. As a result, I'm pretty happy with my vote.

By the way, I think my activity has picked up considerably since D1, so that constantly harping on my low content is somewhat annoying.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Feb 24, 2016 5:56 pm UTC

Carlington, feel free not to answer, but who are you planning on targeting tonight? I want to avoid using my ability such that it is wasted, and that depends in part on who you target.

I'm going to be asleep at deadline, so won't be able to vote then. I'd vote for Esthr, but she's at L-1, and I don't want to hammer. I'm going to

Vote dimochka

as per my suggested alternative strategy from earlier today, since he was my second pick for scum as of last night.

If someone who is going to be awake at deadline wants to remove their vote from Esthr before 11pm UTC, I'll switch my vote there, unless the majority thinks my alternative strategy is a good idea.

Esthr, if you avoid getting lynched, I expect you to target me with your ability tonight.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Esthr » Wed Feb 24, 2016 6:43 pm UTC

What's going on here? Yes, Ho-Oh has a powerful ability. It makes sense to doubt that, except we have someone who can verify it. Do not lynch me and I will target jimbob tonight. Tomorrow, he can confirm that he is invulnerable on N3 and N4.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Feb 24, 2016 6:49 pm UTC

Esthr wrote:What's going on here? Yes, Ho-Oh has a powerful ability. It makes sense to doubt that, except we have someone who can verify it. Do not lynch me and I will target jimbob tonight. Tomorrow, he can confirm that he is invulnerable on N3 and N4.

Fair enough. I will be going to bed in 2 or 3 hours and probably won't be up again until after deadline, but I am willing to switch my vote to dimochka if you also switch to dimochka before I go to bed.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Esthr » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:13 pm UTC

Unvote
Vote: dimochka


Dimochka is far from the top of my scum list, but I can understand jimbob and SirGabriel's reasons for voting for him. It's certainly possible I was giving Sabrar's actions on D1 a bit too much weight.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:17 pm UTC

Unvote
Vote: dimochka

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby dimochka » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:39 pm UTC

Vote esthr

This is ridiculous. I'm town and these piling votes are ridiculous. NO I don't care that I put us at a tie.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby dimochka » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:45 pm UTC

I'm a PGO for one more night. I'm pretty sure Esthr and SirGabriel are our two remaining scum. I don't know what else to say other than try to go through an analysis which I'll do now.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Esthr » Wed Feb 24, 2016 9:25 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:I'm a PGO for one more night. I'm pretty sure Esthr and SirGabriel are our two remaining scum. I don't know what else to say other than try to go through an analysis which I'll do now.


What on earth makes you think there's two more scum? If I wasn't comfortable voting for you before, I am now.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Snark » Wed Feb 24, 2016 10:13 pm UTC

Deadline in ~7 hours. (exactly 6 days from D2 beginning post)

7 alive, 4 to lynch.

jimbobmacdoodle is immune to votes and the lynch today.

Votals:
Esthr - 3 - (mpolo, adnapemit, dimochka)
dimochka - 3 - (jimbobmacdoodle, Esthr, SirGabriel)
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Feb 24, 2016 10:29 pm UTC

Sorry dimohcka, it's nothing personal. I voted you just because you were about the only person I could reasonably see as being scum. Since others now seem to have joined the wagon that I have only partially intended to start, I should probably dedicate a bit more time to re-reading him.

Notes:
Spoiler:
Post 1: Doesn't want lies, happy to reveal rejected roles. Claims PGO.
Post 2: Claimed PGO because didn't want to be accidentally targeted. Claims more powerful ability later on.
Post 3: Rejected Mewtwo (anonymous messenger + more powerful 1-shot ability) and Zapdos (publicly announce that he is Zapdos).
Post 4: Found Zapdos too vanilla. Thought PGO claim early was right, based on others.
Post 5: Mewtwo 1-shot power was to force self-vote.
Post 6: Claims additional power D3. Reads list: SirGabriel (not scummy), mpolo (no content), Sabrar (leaning scum), adnapemit (needs more content), Esthr (leaning town), Carlington (neutral), me (bit more town than scum, but low content), emlightened (leaning town). Sabrar pings him. Would vote him, but wants reasoning for now.
Post 7: Happy to hammer self. Unhappy about wagon on himself.
Post 8: Doesn't want to full claim, but will if good reason given.
Post 9: Claims Cindaquil. Gets one-shot hide and one-shot vig from D3.
Post 10: Finds Sabrar scummy, Esthr townie. Doesn't think both scum, thinks one independent possible. emlightened most townie.
Post 11: Plans to review SirGabriel. Didn't target anyone.
Post 12: Thinks scum might have targeted me, but agrees those targeting me slightly townie for it. Finds SirGabriel responses pretty rational. Doubtful that Sabrar would choose to chat with partner.
Post 13: Votes Esthr. Piling votes on him are ridiculous. Does not care about tie.
Post 14: Pretty sure SirGabriel and Esthr remaining two scum.

dimochka's D2 content has been light to say the least, although he was unwell for the first part of the day. His real content so far has been a few thoughts on SirGabriel, who he found ok, but then goes on to be "pretty sure" he is scum, following his recent vote. He said he was currently re-reading Esthr yesterday, but never posted any thoughts on her, until after the recent vote train started. Yesterday he had a bit more, but most of it was defensive posting in response to the pressure from Sabrar and others. I do find it doubtful that his team-mate would push him so hard. He said he was happy to hammer himself. Admittedly, he never actually had the opportunity to do so, and I know others as scum have done so in the past, but it felt more like frustrated town at the time, and still does in retrospect. I find it slightly odd that he didn't vote for anyone D1, but then voting for Sabrar would have been hammer, and his earlier opinions suggested that he found Sabrar scummy.

If this game had been a cult-based game (I'd be very surprised if it actually is), I'd say that he was recruited last night. Day 1 dimochka looks fine to me, and I would call him fairly comfortably town (or independent). On the other hand, his day 2 content is minimal, and not particularly useful so far, although real life reasons have played a part in that. In another situation, I wouldn't be voting for him, but I feel like most others have good reasons to be town.

I don't like dimochka being at L-1, given the above, but I can't see many other options. I don't have a problem with SirGabriel and Esthr switching votes, since I suggested something like that. I do find it odd that SirGabriel, a) waits for Esthr to vote switch and b) only considers it after Esthr raises the point.

Unvote

I'm going to take a look at everyone else quickly. In the meantime, I'd be very interested to hear from whether those currently voting Esthr agree with my suggestion or not, and if so why or why not? dimochka, if you weren't the voting target, what do you think of the idea.

For what it's worth, if I can confirm Esthr's ability, it doesn't guarantee that she isn't scum. On the other hand, I am then invulnerable for two nights, so I wouldn't be complaining if scum!Esthr does use this ability on me.

I'll be up for another hour or so from this post. Reads and analysis in that time from other players is greatly encouraged.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Carlington » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:14 pm UTC

jimbob, I'd rather not share who I will target. However, I can tell you that it won't be Esthr, dimochka, or you. I don't know how much that helps you decide. I know I promised a proper reads list/more content, but a cursory glance at Dollhouse will tell you why I've been focusing my energies and spare time elsewhere. For the moment, the following:
Town
jimbob
Me
Adnapemit
...
Esthr/dimochka
Scum
The gap will hopefully be filled in when I'm not already meant to be working. I won't vote now because hammer (ninja'd, not necessarily and hammer now but same prinicple) and too much is happening.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Carlington » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:16 pm UTC

I know it'll be hecka close to deadline and I wish it weren't that way and I'm genuinely sorry but my next post will probably be around 1 my time, whenever I get lunch. That's roughly 3 hours away. It looks like only me and jimbob are presently not voting
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:40 pm UTC

I just looked up Ho-Oh's background, and it definitely is consistent with the claimed role. I'm generally inclined to believe that Esthr is claiming truthfully. If so, and thanks to my own ability, I would strongly encourage others to not lynch her.

It might just be because I've been super-active these past couple of days, but I feel like too many people have posted very little content today.

D2 post counts (excluding this post):
jimbobmacdoodle - 16
SirGabriel - 11
Carlington - 5
Esthr - 10
mpolo - 5
adnapemit - 4
dimochka - 4

Notes:
Spoiler:
adnapemit - briefly looked at votals and came to the conclusion that nobody voting Sabrar was scum and said that SirGabriel and Esthr slightly suspicious for voting emlightened. Brief discussion about my power, and explains more about her's after questions from me. Brief thoughts on dimochka. Votes Esthr after I point out possible scum slip. It's unclear to me whether this was because of that or what else I posted. Does post opinions on every player. Slight contradiction in saying that SirGabriel is second best scum suspect and mpolo third scum member. Briefly gives explanation for choosing lynch-block ability.

Carlington - targeted me, hold over feeling against adnapemit from D1. Wants to hear for everybody to post before contributing anything substantial. Brief discussion with adnapemit about my ability. Explains Raichu's ability. Suspects Esthr and SirGabriel on gut feeling. Promises proper updated reads.

mpolo - brief thoughts on vote wagons, and did not target anyone. Expands these thoughts a bit more in next post, but most are just rehashes of others' opinions. Feels like SirGabriel more townie based on interaction with me. Gives town to scum list that largely matches my own. Places second vote on Esthr, thinks unlikely scum targeted me. Thinks Esthr's claimed power badly overpowered. Says activity has picked up considerably since D1 (post count is lower, but more content in most).

SirGabriel - defensive about my initial FoS. FoSses Esthr for her reaction to his last-minute vote yesterday. Responds to my questions about his ability and volunteers information about the deadly version of it. Posts analysis post and town to scum list (why is mpolo so high, yet only slightly townie?). More discussion and clarifications of his role. Thinks Esthr's role made up. Agrees to let Esthr live and be able to target me tonight, and switches vote to dimochka.
adnapemit - low post count, but I can't fault what she has posted at all, apart from a minor possible contradiction in her reads list, if read one way. Although her ability isn't particularly useful to town, I doubt she would both target me and vote to lynch Sabrar as scum, so fairly town.
Carlington - also low post count. Very little content at all today. He promised a reads list this morning, but it hasn't appeared. He did target me with a townie sounding power (though I guess you could argue that scum might also choose this power). I'm concerned about his low content, and he is slipping on my scum list as a result.
mpolo - his thoughts seem to broadly match my own on other players. That said, they match most other people's as well, I think. Although he has posted fewer posts than yesterday, his content is much better today. Leaning town.
SirGabriel - my opinion on SirGabriel keeps swinging. On the one hand, he was one of the first to suspect Esthr today, before it became particularly popular. On the other hand, his revealing of the deadly gift version seems like a townie thing to do (I would have called him up on it, if he hadn't mentioned it). He posts a town to scum list, but he has mpolo in an odd place compared to others based on what he said in his explanations. Moderately townie, but as mentioned multiple times before, if I die at an odd time (i.e. at the end of a day, rather than overnight), he should be lynched immediately.

Town
jimbobmacdoodle
adnapemit
SirGabriel
mpolo
Carlington
dimochka
Esthr
Scum

I still think Esthr is our most likely scum player. I don't put it beyond the realms of possibility that there is one other scum out there as well. I wouldn't mind her being spared though for reasons already stated. On the other hand, I'm not sure that'll give us all that much, apart from a need to lynch someone else. I can't see how No Lynch gives us anything, except to avoid killing any town power roles, but for that to make sense, there needs to be only one other scum. AARRGGHH, I can't decide how to vote. Given the votals, I think I'm going to revote dimochka. If nothing else, his claimed power is one of the weaker ones (after adnapemit) of which I am aware (although mpolo has not claimed his ability yet, and Carlington says there is more than his base ability to his role), so if we mislynch him, it's not a massive loss compared to some others.

Vote dimochka

That gives Carlington the remaining vote to decide who to lynch (assuming nobody else swaps votes). I don't mind either target being lynched, so if random.org decides it, then so be it.

Ninja'ed by Carlington: Thank you. I'm vaguely surprised you aren't planning on targeting me, but no need to explain now. I think I know what my plans are for tonight.

Good night everyone. May we all (except the scum amongst us) wake up safe and well. For the record, it's not essential to target me anymore, but you are welcome to do so as with last night, especially if you haven't already (if you have, I don't know if I'll be able to tell if you do and I don't get any further benefits).
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby dimochka » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:42 pm UTC

Unvote

lynch Esthr when I turn up town. Analysis coming in the next hour.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby dimochka » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:57 pm UTC

1. it makes sense to me that esthr and sabrar would want to get day chat together. i didnt read sabrar's power carefully before but yes this would be a great way to communicate
2. there is no way we have only 2 scum for a 9 person game. I made the assumption that we have 3 and i'm going to stick by it. it's possible one of those 3 is an SK.
3. Esthr's switch of opinions on me, going from I KNOW DIMOCHKA ISNT SCUM to "i guess he's ok but i'll lynch him instead of me" (which makes sense) to "he's definitely scum" is interesting. so is the ease with which sirgabriel and esthr switched votes.
4. I pretty much handed sabrar on a platter, I claimed PGO early on to avoid killing power towns, and yet I'm still the suspect? I'm more than happy to get lynched. I'm tempted to hammer myself.

I just quickly typed this up as a response, this is not yet my analysis. I think I will hammer myself with my analysis because I can't believe you're actually trusting this bandwagon that came out of nowhere.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Snark » Thu Feb 25, 2016 1:51 am UTC

Deadline in ~3 hours. (exactly 6 days from D2 beginning post)

7 alive, 4 to lynch.

jimbobmacdoodle is immune to votes and the lynch today.

Votals:
dimochka - 3 - (jimbobmacdoodle, Esthr, SirGabriel)
Esthr - 2 - (mpolo, adnapemit)
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 2: Kanto's Charisma]

Postby Carlington » Thu Feb 25, 2016 3:05 am UTC

To carry on from earlier, mpolo and SirG slot into the gap in my reads list, mpolo townier and SirG scummier. Mpolo and adnapemit are pretty much equivalent in terms of towniness, and jimbob is basically confirmed town right now. That leaves the pressing issue of dimochka vs. Esthr.

Vote: Dimochka

I'm very sorry, and I will almost certainly vote Esthr tomorrow if you flip town. However, if Esthr is telling the truth about that power, the chance of having a confirmed town with NK immunity for two nights cannot be passed up. A PGO, on the other hand? The best way to get information from you either way is the lynch - if you flip scum, we either win or look for connections. If you flip town PGO, we look at who was the pushiest on your wagon.
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