PyPokemon 2 [Game Over: This Was a Triumph]

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emlightened
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:21 am UTC

@Sabrar: I was asleep about ten minutes later. I also have family down, so I can't post as much or as early in the day as I'd like. Also, I interpreted what dimochka said to mean "this is what's on mafiascum, I'll probably follow that next time", not "I used this as a guide"; the latter is obviously false.

Esthr: Leaning town. (didn't finish in last post)

jimbobmacdoodle: Was fine with revealing rejections, and could understand a false PGO claim for both scum and town to buy time. Lists roles rejected with comments; conclusions seem mostly fine. Why, though, is mpolo so solidly town, when he could have just have lied about not picking it? Neutral.

mpolo: Suggests odd role ratios (we only have 9 players, not 12), otherwise just answering about his role. Leaning scum for active lurking.

Sabrar: Posted the most content out of everybody so far. Strongly against early PGO claims, and is the first one to push this as scummy (jimbob did already point it out, though). Wants to draw conclusions from role rejections before all players have claimed; reasoning seems fine. First player to analyse roles rejected. Doesn't think that the mod balanced power roles, and points out why people would or wouldn't lie about their roles. A lot of his posts seem to point out general strategy and ask questions, which I'm not sure about. I can agree with most of his reads, but not all of them, and I can also say that his post pings me a bit. He really seems to be pushing a dimochka lynch on his last post, mainly for reasons I disagree with. FoS Sabrar.

SirGabriel: Suggest Pokémon name massclaim, and supports lying within reason for roleclaim. Comments on ability to determine roles from Pokémon names. Votes on me, for reasons not completely sound but ones that I can understand. Supports previous suggestion about lying, seems fine, given reasoning. Supports previous statement, and then gives analysis post which seems fine. Slight town lean.

Re: dimochka: I felt like he deserved an extra comment, for having a new post. This one feels less scummy. His refusing to reveal and extra info on it make me feel like the role is real (but not necessarily the one he picked), and the analysis seems good, if short. Also feels good that he didn't vote for Sabrar, just FoSsed.

Tempted to move my vote to Sabrar, but I'll see what other people (particularly those two) post before deciding.

@Ninja-dimochka: Depending on Sabrar's reaction, I'll move my vote. Don't hammer yourself.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby dimochka » Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:24 am UTC

someone please tell me why you want me to full claim and how that's going to help. if the reason is good i'll claim. so far all i heard is that i should claim because i'm scummy because i claimed pgo in first post.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:46 am UTC

I think the main reason is your allusion to a late-game power, which seems too convenient and wasn't initially specified (it would be pretty useless if it was on D4, for instance).

And claiming PGO in your first post, IMO, is much less scummy than first claiming in your second or third post. I can understand the claim, my main reasons for voting you were the former and lurking.

And now I can't help but think that claiming might be the safer option, given that you get a role late game. If scum think that you're just trying to buy time? You go down in a flaming ball of glory. If they don't, you're safe until you can use the power. If you're scum, then you might play it for those reasons, but it seems risky. By then, we're in WIFOM territory, but if we don't have any results by D3, then we've still got a confirmed scum.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby dimochka » Sun Feb 14, 2016 2:35 am UTC

Fine whatever, it just makes it less fun to play this way. I'm Cindaquil. I'm still young and have a bit of a temper, which makes me a PGO (fire explosion when people upset me). On D3 I learn to better control my emotions, which means that I'm no longer a PGO at that point, but I'll have a 1-shot hide ability (no one can target me that night) and a one-shot vig with my fire.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 14, 2016 6:44 am UTC

Possibly should have posted this yesterday but was tired. These are the things that were wrong with dimochka's defense:

1. He claims Town, makes some reads and does not vote because of reasons. Conclusion is that according to him Town can have legitimate reasons not to vote early. Immediately in the next (or rather previous) sentence he accuses me of being scummy because I gave reads but did not vote for reasons. This is so inconsistent I can't believe I have to explain it in detail. Also see here for my stance on early voting. The one time I started the day off with a vote was when I was scum.

2. Regarding the advice on mafiascum I interpreted his remark as having followed it, otherwise why bring it up? He says that revealing his power might cause scum target him earlier. I say great, one less scum to worry about. You're part of a team and will win even if dead and the last sentence of the mafiascum advice specifically explains why this is a good thing. I understand completely that you want to continue playing and not die but if that is what's needed you should take a bullet for the team as that's infinitely more useful than getting mislynched.

3. His analysis is too short, it seems to cherry-pick some specific things while disregarding others and it doesn't let us see his thought process. E.g. he berates SirGabriel for siding with me, but states that he doesn't think he's scummy. Why exactly? He finds Esthr town solely for agreeing with him on townies not lying, while 'conveniently' forgetting that I also did the same thing. He has 4 neutral reads because of low content and only 1 scum read because of a 'tell' that he also did. This is not useful.

Regarding the claim:
Cyndaquil is usually timid by nature and often curls into a ball when intimidated.

This does not scream PGO to me but Rapidash didn't scream Jailer to me either so what do I know. The ability overall seems pretty strong to me, especially compared to some of the other Vigilante-type powers people have rejected. It is very scary in the hands of scum but very useful for Town as well. As the alignments and roles don't seem to have much correlation I don't think that the wiki statement of 'PGO are more often Town than scum' applies here. Therefore I won't unvote just now. I should be available all Monday to reevaluate things and change my vote before the deadline.

@emlightened: Was it really me who pushed for his lynch? What about you who 1) already voted for dimochka and 2) does not unvote but still FoS-s another player for attacking the same person as you did? Or are you saying that your votes are not serious?
I apologize if that came out too hard but this was very hypocritical of you.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:03 am UTC

I found dimochka the most scummy, but you both repeatedly brought up the topic throughout the day, and were the first one to point it out as scummy. My vote was serious, and although you find the same person as me scummy, I was still uneasy about your reasoning.
Carlington wrote:This idea can work even for something as simple as raising the suggestion that there could be a cult - I have seen this very thing lead to a majority of players assuming there was a cult in the game, all from the mere mention.
You were the one who first brought up - and pushed - dimochka being scummy due to the PGO claim.

dimochka not voting seems completely fine to me, due to his analysis being so short and him not straight up voting you because OMGUS/he's in a compromised situation. On the other hand, you provided extensive reads, and although waiting for him to come back online is understandable, I would still have expected you to place a vote in the meantime. Also, him not mentioning your comment on lying doesn't mean that he missed it.

Sabrar wrote:@emlightened: Was it really me who pushed for his lynch? What about you who 1) already voted for dimochka and 2) does not unvote but still FoS-s another player for attacking the same person as you did? Or are you saying that your votes are not serious?
Unvote (dimochka)

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:23 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:BTW I prefer he/him.
Sorry about that.

I'm still not convinced by dimochka's claim, so I'm leaving my vote where it is.

What happens if votes are tied at deadline?

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:26 am UTC

Spoiler:
Snark wrote:PyPokemon 2
Voting rules:
  1. Votes and questions must be posted in bold and on a new line, like this:

    Vote: Snark

    You must unvote to change votes, in bold and on a new line, like this:

    Unvote
    Vote: Snark

  2. When someone gains a majority of the votes, they are automatically lynched, and daytime automatically ends whether or not the mod is online to declare day-end. Posting after the hammer vote is not allowed, even if the hammer-vote was accidental.
  3. If deadline is reached and no player has a majority of the votes, then the person with the most votes is lynched. If the votals are tied, then random.org will randomly select one of the tied players to be lynched UNLESS all players are voting and exactly 2 players have votes placed on them. In that special case, there will be no lynch. If you don't understand this, please ask for clarification.
  4. You can vote to "NL" (no lynch). If "NL" gets the majority of the votes (or wins a tied votal), no one will be lynched.


Copied from OP.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:55 am UTC

emlightened wrote:Happy?

No, I'm not happy because of the same reason I disliked SirGabriel's unvote initially. You should do what you feel is right of your own accord and not trying to conform to other players' expectations.
BTW what does the quote from Carlington about the cults have anything to do with this?

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby adnapemit » Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:25 am UTC

As promised:
Carlington
Makes a couple points of where SirGabriel is suspicious but then turns it into an opinion of town. Hasn't posted for a few days. Leaning towards scum more than town (But not because of not posting).

dimochka
The early PGO claim did appear scummy but Cyndaquil does fit for PGO.
I believe dimochka is PGO but that doesn't prevent him being scum however given the number of powers in this game an early PGO claim might be helpful. I would say town.

emlightened
Wonders about scum having a team kill. Very active and is the first to do actual analysis not based on the pokémon picked. Probably town.

Esthr
Reasonable number of posts with a good amount of content and analysis.
point made are reasonable even if I don't agree completely. I would say town.

Jimbobmacdoodle
Lots of discussion on roles and abilities. Asks several questions.
I'd like to see his behavior analysis but for now he looks town.

mpolo
Mostly posted about pokémon choice and setup. IGMEOY

Sabrar
Quite a lot of content and analysis. I couldn't find anything obviously scummy however it felt like an attempt to find something scummy for every player but then
the quote of Cyndaquil trait is very deceptive. It is only part of cyndaquils nature the part that looks least like PGO. Either you only half researched Cyndaquil or are a lazy reader. Scum.

SirGabriel
Suggested the massclaim, first to vote, quite active. Some of his actions seemed quite scummy but his analysis is reasonable. Not quite scum but scummier than neutral.

Vote: Sabrar
I find it interesting that I am being suspected as a possibility of lying even though I still didn't see as as even necessary until it was pointed out.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Snark » Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:58 pm UTC

Deadline in ~1 day, 6 hours.

9 alive, 5 to lynch.

Votals:
2 - dimochka (Sabrar, SirGabriel)
1 - Sabrar (adnapemit)


SirGabriel wrote:What happens if votes are tied at deadline?
emlightened wrote:
Spoiler:
Snark wrote:PyPokemon 2
Voting rules:
  1. Votes and questions must be posted in bold and on a new line, like this:

    Vote: Snark

    You must unvote to change votes, in bold and on a new line, like this:

    Unvote
    Vote: Snark

  2. When someone gains a majority of the votes, they are automatically lynched, and daytime automatically ends whether or not the mod is online to declare day-end. Posting after the hammer vote is not allowed, even if the hammer-vote was accidental.
  3. If deadline is reached and no player has a majority of the votes, then the person with the most votes is lynched. If the votals are tied, then random.org will randomly select one of the tied players to be lynched UNLESS all players are voting and exactly 2 players have votes placed on them. In that special case, there will be no lynch. If you don't understand this, please ask for clarification.
  4. You can vote to "NL" (no lynch). If "NL" gets the majority of the votes (or wins a tied votal), no one will be lynched.


Copied from OP.
Correct. Thank you.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby mpolo » Sun Feb 14, 2016 6:18 pm UTC

I hope to get some more after dinner. The pressure on dimochka to full claim seems misguided, especially with the result. I would not have faulted dimochka for hiding what happens on later days.

I had intended to give this some time today and got distracted. Hopefully I can put some more effort in after eating dinner.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Sun Feb 14, 2016 6:47 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:BTW what does the quote from Carlington about the cults have anything to do with this?
You first suggested that dimochka was scum, and it seems that most people have started looking at him as scum after that (similarly to how people thought there were cults from a mention, you kicked this off). You deliberately waited until a couple of other people had started voting on dimochka before doing it yourself, in order to be more subtle about it.

Also, though I don't suppose it counts for anything at this point, I was fine with dimochka not role revealing after his analysis post. In the last paragraph of the post before he claimed, I was meaning claiming that he was a PGO at the start of the day, not roleclaiming.

Time to play some Dollhouse.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:04 pm UTC

@adnapemit: you're absolutely right, I'm lazy because the flavor does not interest me that much. I've only looked at the short biology section on the page Snark linked to in the OP and did not make the effort to look elsewhere. That whole section reads:
Spoiler:
Cyndaquil is a small, bipedal Pokémon with bluish fur on top of its body, and a milky color on the underside. Cyndaquil seems to be a composite of features from the echidna and the shrew. The echidna features are the flames from its back, while its general body shape is shrew-like. Its eyes are often closed and it has a long, thin snout. It lacks claws on its forelimbs, but has a single claw on each hind foot. Cyndaquil is usually timid by nature and often curls into a ball when intimidated. It has four red spots on its back from which its flames erupt. Cyndaquil is capable of defending itself using these flames. The fire grows more powerful as Cyndaquil becomes more angry or defensive. Though rare in the wild, few can be found living on grasslands.

Anything not bolded is irrelevant from role-spec in my opinion. While the second part could indicate PGO (but in my mind would be more applicable as a defensive trait and not an aggressive one), I've only quoted the first part because it had the most contrast with dimochka's flavor claim of 'having a bit of temper'.

@emlightened: Ok, thanks for explaining that bit, I was really lost there. I think you're making a classic mistake here, SirGabriel found dimochka scummy for completely different (flavor-related) reasons so I don't think I had any impact on that. Obviously I would not presume to know your thought process at the time of your vote, but you brought up 2 additional reasons I haven't even mentioned so again I'm not feeling my influence there.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:25 pm UTC

Okay, I can see that now. I don't think I'll put my vote on you, but I'm not confident enough to put it on dimochka.

I'll have a think about it.

Interestingly, one of the Pokédex descriptions ("It has a timid nature. If it is startled, the flames on its back burn more vigorously.") alludes to a PGO quite nicely, but doesn't fit with what dimochka said.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:33 pm UTC

EBWOP: Actually, the ORAS description is very fitting for Cyndaquil:
Bulbapedia wrote:Cyndaquil protects itself by flaring up the flames on its back. The flames are vigorous if the Pokémon is angry. [...]

Either dimochka did his research right, or he's telling the truth. Doesn't mean he's town, but it's a good indicator.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:35 pm UTC

Better link here.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:43 pm UTC

Ok, here goes as promised. For those unfamiliar with my reads/analysis posts, I'm putting a full post summary in the spoiler, mostly for my own benefit, then summarise my thoughts afterwards. Analysis is not done in any particular order (usually alphabetical or the order they appear in the player list).

Post summary:
Spoiler:
adnapemit: Agrees with revealing rejections, including one power. Thinks abilities might be guessable. Rejected Mew and Aurorus; Mew could create a fake role for investigations. Rejected because not useful for town. Tries to guess what people picked. Looks at reasons for rejections, with me and Esthr as most townie, emlightened and Sabrar most scum. Confused as to why people might lie about rejections. Doubts dimochka PGO claim. Reads post, notable switches opinion on dimochka PGO, after full claim; calls out Sabrar for partial quote of Cyndaquil trait, and votes him; IGMEOYs mpolo for lack of player analysis; has Carlington, Sabrar, SirGabriel (ish) as scum; has everyone else except mpolo as town.

Carlington: happy with mass claim, but fears helpful to scum. Rejected Raichu and Snorlax (one-off lynch immunity but kills unblockable against it), rejected because unhelpful to town. Accepts dimochka PGO claim as reasonable. Probably have indie with no kill. Like's Sabrar's analysis, and my and Esthr's decision. Feels iffy about SirG and emlightened. Last post was on Wendesday.

dimochka: against lying about rejections, and happy to claim them. Claims PGO, to avoid power roles accidentally targeting him. Selected PGO because other roles were vanilla. Later powers very helpful to town. Rejected Mewtwo (anonymous messaging power, forced self-voting) and Zapdos (create thunderstorm, announces as Zapdos). Defends reasoning for claiming PGO as almost everyone claims it off the bat, and late claim or no claim would look scummier. Does not want to reveal remainder of role. Leans scum on SirG for reaching same conclusions as Sabrar, and Sabrar for being too careful with lots of reads and no vote; leaning town for Esthr due to being against lying about rejections, and emlightened for actual analysis. Willing to self-hammer. Demands reasons for full claim. Claims Cindaquil (PGO until D3, then single-shot hide and single-shot vig).

emlightened: powers not really relevant to Pokemon; fine with mass rejected role-claim. Suggests only revealing one role, to stop scum being able to spot power roles. Thinks roles player got all roughly similar strength. Rejected Mew (optional immunity to night actions if under three people target her) and Eevee (re-roll). Thinks wouldn't be target of night kill because others find her scummy. Later adds that being invisible would mean she couldn't be usefully targeted by a cop. Would have preferred dimochka PGO claim nearer end of day. Raises possibilities of scum having no team-kill and of scum lying about rejections. Wants dimochka full claim for how convenient later abilities are. Does analysis posts, has Carlington, dimochka, mpolo (and presumably Sabrar) scum, adnapemit, me neutral, Esthr, SirG town; votes dimochka and FoSses Sabrar. Understands dimochka's reasoning, unvotes him in response to pressure from Sabrar. Identifies Sabrar as first suggesting dimochka as scum, then delaying his vote until others already had.

Esthr: setup speculation, happy to claim rejected roles. Against lying townie. Rejected Gardevoir and Delphox (delayed kill ability), rejected because unsure would be useful. Suggests possible to analyse rejections. Hoping for good D2 investigation results. FoSses SirG for suggesting lying and voting emlightened. Analyses reasons for rejections - SirG, emlightened scum, Sabrar, me, mpolo, Carlington town, adnapemit, dimochka neutral. Wants full claim from dimochka.

mpolo: no problem with rejected role claim. Mistaken setup spec (too many players!). Rejected Charizard (torch ability) and Zygarde (1-shot late game power). Couldn't count on being around late game. Didn't want lots of carnage from his ability. Pressure on dimochka full-claim misguided.

Sabrar: no objection to rejection claim, but unusure of usefulness. Disliked dimochka PGO claim, thinks claim should have come at end of day, if needed. Opposed to lying on claims. Rejected Axew and Rapidash (alternate jailer). Calls for analysis of rejections. IGMEOYs adnapemit and mpolo for responses (late/easily faked); likes my claim, calls me townie. FoSses dimochka for early PGO claim. Advises caution in inferring alignment from rejections. Explains reasons for townies (or scum) to lie. Seconds SirG's call for full dimochka claim. Questions about rejected characters. Reads list: town SirG (but IGMEOY), Esthr, jimbobmacdoodle, Carlington; scum emlightened, dimochka ("for multiple reasons"), mpolo; neutral adnapemit. Subsequently votes dimochka, for no-claim and analysis looking scummy. Explains why dimochka's defence is bad. Also calls out emlightened for hypocrisy. Doesn't like her subsequent unvote.

SirG: initial suggestion of rejection mass-claim. Discusses possible ways of doing this, including lying if too obvious that good power was selected. Rejected Smeargle and Shedinja (could kill player if they had already targeted him). Random speculation on other players selections. Votes emlightened for rejecting useful town role. Explains reasons for rejecting Shedinja. Unvotes, after others think it too early to do so. Thought unlikely anyone would actually lie about rejections. FoSses dimochka for inconsistent claim based on flavour. Calls for full claim from him. Said vote was to help start discussion. Reads post: neutral - adnampemit (+IGMEOY), emlightened, Esthr, scummy - Carlington, dimochka, town - me, Sabrar. Votes dimochka.
Requesting modprod on Carlington, please.

So, first things first, one quick point that stood out to me: if Sabrar is scum, I would not be surprised if SirG is, as the two seem to have very similar reactions to dimochka, and both have each other as town. Whereas most other players have at least one (and many both) as scum, at least from some of their reads lists (of which some are just analysing rejected roles).

Thoughts on players individually:
adnapemit: no strong opinion here, but I like how she called Sabrar out for his partial quote, which could be seen as an attempt to misrepresent dimochka's Pokemon. Leaning town.

Carlington: I like that he posted some opinions on a few players relatively early on. Otherwise, there isn't enough from him. I don't quite see what people found suspicious about Carlington, if you ignore the lack of posts from him. Leaning town.

dimochka: I found his PGO claim a bit odd, but I wouldn't necssarily call it scummy. Yes, it could be a perfect cover for scum, but it could also be a truthful townie. His resistance to revealing the rest of his ability seems reasonable to me. I don't mind seeing his claim, but I can understand why he might want to keep it hidden, although maybe he resisted too much? Certainly, I doubt scum will try to kill him before he gets his vig shot. Sabrar does fairly point out some minor inconsistencies and lack of obvious reasoning in his reads conclusion. My instinct from reading his posts puts him on the town side, but I'm far from certain. If I get any more time before deadline (I doubt it with Dollhouse deadline the same day), I'll reread him again.

emlightened: I find her speculation about the lack of a scum team kill a little weird, to be honest, but I think it slightly more likely to come from town than scum. I think her voting pattern on dimochka was also a little odd, but I'm inclined to believe her reasoning here. I like her pressure on Sabrar over his argument with dimochka. Leaning town. Ninja - I think I like that she has partially switched opinions on dimochka. Normally, switching opinions isn't all that townie, I'd say, but in this case, she backs it up based on research, so it seems a little more justified.

Esthr: I like her idea of analysing people's reasons for rejections, rather than what they rejected. I think it would have been easy for scum not to do this, so I'm putting her
pretty firmly as town. If she has any more thoughts on people's discussions away from the rejected roles, I think it would be good to get them out.

mpolo: I earlier found him pretty solidly town for his rejected role. Someone else (can't remember who, and couldn't find it quickly) pointed out that he could have lied, which is a fair point. If faked, it does seem a little convoluted a claim to be made up though. I don't like his lack of analysis of others, so I hope there is some soon. Until then, I'm putting him at very slightly scum, due to lack of useful content.

Sabrar: his attack on dimochka feels a bit like his attack on me in Alternating 9P where he was scum. It's either that or fairly heavily tunnelling (though he does switch a little to emlightened later). One major thing that stood out to me was that he said that he had dimochka down as scum for "multiple reasons already listed" in this post. However, I could only find his unhappiness with the early PGO claim listed up to that point. He does come up with other reasons later. I don't like the partial quote either to make it look like dimochka's role is not a suitable PGO. At least one of his points (point 2) seems to be that he didn't agree with his PGO strategy. I do accept Sabrar's first point, to some extent. Still, my gut says that Sabrar vs dimochka is not a town vs town fight, and that Sabrar is the scummier of the two. Ninja - he does back off a bit from his partial quote at least. On the other hand, he does seem to be trying to distance himself from SirG.

SirGabriel: I don't like his FoS on dimochka, which was because he guessed (incorrectly, assuming dimochka didn't lie about his claimed name) his Pokemon and it didn't fit as a PGO. He doesn't seem to have found anything scummy about his behaviour either. This is an incredibly weak reason to me, since a) it assumes you can read the other player's mind on choosing characters, and b) even if you could that you could read the mod's mind as well. In particular, we've seen some fairly odd ability to name match-ups. I do like his early suggesting re. mass-claiming to try to promote some discussion. Leaning scum, mostly because he seems to be tag-teaming with Sabrar a little too much for my liking.

Summary, loosely in order from most likely to least:
Scum - Sabrar, SirGabriel, mpolo
Town - Esthr, adnapemit, emlightened, dimochka, Carlington

Vote Sabrar

Note: This puts the votes at tied, which is a No Lynch, so please could others vote at some point!
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:58 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:One major thing that stood out to me was that he said that he had dimochka down as scum for "multiple reasons already listed" in this post. However, I could only find his unhappiness with the early PGO claim listed up to that point. He does come up with other reasons later.

I could have expressed myself more clearly there but I did not mean to imply that all of those reasons were my own. It included both emlightened's and SirGabriel's points as well.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Note: This puts the votes at tied, which is a No Lynch, so please could others vote at some point!

Tied votals is only No Lynch in Dollhouse, here it is decided randomly as pointed out previously on this very page.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:10 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Note: This puts the votes at tied, which is a No Lynch, so please could others vote at some point!

Tied votals is only No Lynch in Dollhouse, here it is decided randomly as pointed out previously on this very page.
Oops, thanks. Teach me to play two games at once and post late in the evening when I'm tired! Either way, tied votes aren't great, so the point still stands. I will take a look at those other points later, if I get a chance.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Snark » Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:07 am UTC

Deadline in ~17 hours.

9 alive, 5 to lynch.

Votals:
2 - dimochka (Sabrar, SirGabriel)
2 - Sabrar (adnapemit, jimbobmacdoodle)

Carlington has received a modprod.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 15, 2016 5:46 am UTC

I've decided to do a full reveal as I don't have a useful ability to protect. Fortunately my chat-partner agreed to be named.

Second rejected Pokemon: Axew
Axew is vanilla until N3 when it evolves into an intimidating Fraxure that can target another player each night, rendering him/her voteless for the following day. It further evolves on N6 into Haxorus, gaining double-vote permanently. The flavor was that even though it's strong it still desires even more power.
Reason for rejection: A game with 9 players will never last until D7 so I have no idea what the mod was thinking when he put in the second ability. Rendering someone voteless can lose us the game in a LYLO situation. It could also be helpful but only if I read the others correctly. Anyway you will see below the main reason why I chose the third option.

Accepted Pokemon: Houndour
I can communicate well with others because of my bark, allowing me to select another player at the beginning of the game and having a Mason-like chat with them. They are not guaranteed to be Town however. No other ability.

Here is the first pm I wrote to Esthr at the beginning of D1 (checked with the mod, it's allowed):
Spoiler:
Hi Esthr,

so us having a chat is because I chose a Mason ability. I think Mafia is more enjoyable if you're not isolated and have someone to talk to so this was an easy choice for me. Almost all of the other players also participate in the Dollhouse game I moderate and I wanted to avoid even the possibility of sending a wrong pm out. Also I felt a bit guilty about leading the lynch on you in the Alternating game so that's why I chose you as my Mason-buddy. Now the mod said that there would be no guarantee that you would also be Town, however the odds definitely favor it so I hope I chose right.
I've never played a Mason before so it will be interesting to see what we can do with it.

I will answer any question you have.

PS: based on our chat-interaction I'm almost certain that Esthr is Town as well. I do not wish to copy-paste all of the 5 pm-s that indicate this but will do so if absolutely necessary.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby mpolo » Mon Feb 15, 2016 7:17 am UTC

My analysis over in Dollhouse took far too long and I didn't get back here in time. I think I'll be on before deadline, but a big analysis might realistically fall into D2.

Both people being voted have detailed claims out. Which means that I don't want to impulse vote one of them before studying the lay of the land. With deadline being about 8 pm, I really ought to have enough time to at least do that.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:37 am UTC

@Esthr - I doubt Sabrar would lie, but could you confirm he has chat with you, please. What are your thoughts on Sabrar? For that matter, do you have a strong opinion on anyone else?

@Sabrar - was the "not guaranteed to be Town" part of the original role PM or in response to a question? Did you consider any other possible uses of Axew's power when choosing which character?

I do believe that Sabrar has the ability stated. I don't however currently see anything that confirms him as town. I would therefore strongly advise others NOT to call him a mason, as that implies Town and could lead to incorrect assumptions.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:50 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar - was the "not guaranteed to be Town" part of the original role PM or in response to a question? Did you consider any other possible uses of Axew's power when choosing which character?

1. In response to a follow-up question as Mason was mentioned in the original role pm.
2. I only gave it a bit of thought. I soon realized however that both Axew and Rapidash would only work if I guessed correctly, otherwise it would actually harm Town. I would have taken a more standard role (Cop, Doctor, etc) where mistakes don't cost anything but given these choices I decided to play it safe.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby adnapemit » Mon Feb 15, 2016 10:24 am UTC

I'm pretty sure Sabrar isn't lying about Houndour or Houndour's ability and I'm sure Esthr can confirm it was used. But this does not make Sabrar or Esthr confirmed town. I will say I honestly do not understand Sabrar's choice, I said earlier I saw a jailer as good for town but now with the role reveal I can only see the ability chosen as something for scum. The word 'mason' was used but unless you could confirm the other person is town(which only scum can do) then I don't think it would be beneficial.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 15, 2016 10:37 am UTC

For some reason I thought that I've already explained why I didn't consider Jailer a good choice but now I see I'm misremembering things. Here are my thoughts on the matter:
Jailer can be good in exactly 2 cases, 1) if I correctly guess the exact scum who will perform the kill that night or 2) if I correctly guess the intended target. In other cases I will most likely actively harm Town as I prevent the use of an ability with no additional benefit. Given some of my previous record on this forum (can provide details if needed) I was not confident in myself that I would guess right. Also being an alternate Jailer makes it much less effective.

Additionally I would argue that if I were scum I would have been more inclined to choose either Axew or Rapidash as they offer concrete benefits without any risk of hurting myself.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Mon Feb 15, 2016 10:43 am UTC

In a nine player game, that's still about 20% chance of preventing an NK, which is better than a doctor. If you're actually able to guess scum or targets decently, I'd say that gives you roughly a 40% chance of preventing one, and although you could still target town by accident, it seems to be the most powerful town ability revealed so far, to me. Certainly more so than a daychat, or a voteblocker.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Carlington » Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:44 am UTC

You guys I promised Snark that I'd make a proper post tonight but I haven't had time yet and I worked 11 hours today so am just fried. I really need to post before deadline so here I am, but this is not going to be the most thorough post I've ever made.
Re-reading makes me think that SirG is leaning town. I have no reason to think that dimochka would claim PGO out of the gate as scum - it's too easy, it's obvious that it'll attract suspicion because it prevents any sort of investigation and nicely explains away the lack of NK. At the moment, in an ideal world, I'd be voting Esthr. Something in her play is pinging me. She seemed very happy to go with SirG's massclaim on page one, but I really don't like something about how hard she swung back to say that SirG looked scummy because of suggesting townies lie. It made sense as a suggestion, and I say this as someone who hates any lying town play on principle. It just seems too much like a setup/gotcha that she can come back to later and push on. I don't know if voting her will do any good right now, with votals tied at 2-2, but it feels right. I may not be on again before deadline, as work hours have gotten very hectic and will stay so for the next two weeks.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:19 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar: his attack on dimochka feels a bit like his attack on me in Alternating 9P where he was scum. It's either that or fairly heavily tunnelling (though he does switch a little to emlightened later).

Please read back Smalltown D1 if you have the time! I did the same thing there to Lawrencelot (as Town). While you're at it, you might read back Secret Santa as well where I did the same thing to mpolo (also as Town). If I were paranoid (which I'm obviously not as dimochka got that role) I would think that you're trying to misrepresent my meta deliberately (after you also misrepresented it in Alternating 9P).

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:23 pm UTC

Forgot to do this in my last post:

Vote: Sabrar.

That roleclaim really cinched it for me.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:29 pm UTC

Mind explaining why? And if it's because I didn't choose the most towny option in your opinion, mind also explaining why you completely disregard the fact that I also didn't choose the most useful option as scum?

I know I'm making my own situation worse but at this point I feel much more strongly about emlightened.

Unvote
Vote: emlightened

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:37 pm UTC

EBWOP: It seems to me that ever since dimochka's claim noone has even looked at him anymore despite nobody contesting the 3 points I raised in this post. Instead they are focusing on blowing up minor matters (like my poorly worded post here and my laziness to investigate the flavor more).
My only option to help Town at this time is to make you aware of the baseless accusations people are pointing at me so when I flip Town tomorrow you'll know who to lynch next.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Mon Feb 15, 2016 1:08 pm UTC

I think it would be the most useful option, if you were scum. The game will only go on for long enough for the vote power to be useful if you are able to survive the lynch for three days, and we'll only get to that point if we don't have any vig kills (or get enough blocks/doctors). A Jailer option is still probably not as useful as scum because you need to know where to aim it, but it's still better than Axew. A private chat, however? You get one player to talk to personally so that they think you're town, not scum, and who will probably defend you if you're likely to get lynched? That seems pretty useful for scum. Shame that Esthr hasn't been online today.

I will, though, be hopefully making a full analysis post on both of you before night, and may change my vote if it turns out that the tells tell a different story than my intuition.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 15, 2016 1:35 pm UTC

You're a lot more cynical than I am if you think that people can be so easily manipulated. Looks like we have a completely different idea on the usefulness of some roles. I await eagerly your analysis.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:43 pm UTC

Sabrar, given that it looks like you're likely to be lynched, I think it's in town's best interests if you tell us exactly why you believe Esthr is town.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby mpolo » Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:47 pm UTC

I reread a lot, but not the last 10-15 posts on this page, because I only have 7 minutes more right now…

Notes:
Spoiler:
Starting with the claims:

SirGabriel: rejected a sort of vig because too few players; votes emlightened for rejecting town power; explains why rejected role less useful; town lying on roles doesn't help scum; dimochka's claims don't ssem to match flavor; vote was to start discussion; analysis, vote dimochka;

Sabrar: rejected an alternate Jailer; scum wouldn't admit rejecting a good townie role; town might lie to hide good role; is it dangerous to full-claim?; Questions; analysis; votes dimochka (bad PGO play); Dimochka is inconsistent and plaing PGO poorly, cherry-picked analysis; emlightened trying to match others' expectations

adnapemit: rejected a fake role creator; analysis of picks (scum: emlightened and Sabrar; town jimbob and Esthr); no one needed to lie; Guessing at dimochka's role; chose favorite pokemons

jimbob: rejected limited kill immunity/vulnerability; dimochka suspicious for claim and rejection list

enlightened: rejected night immunity for up to 3 actions (felt it unlikely she would be target for kill); Eevee had to pick from a second list; Perhaps scum claimed real role, uncertainty whether there's a mafia kill; dimochka should reveal; votes dimochka; suspicion of Sabrar; suggested dimochka claim; unvote dimochka

Esthr: rejected future night kill, SirGabriel being overdefensive (vote); thirds call for roleclaim by dimochka

dimochka: claims PGO, rejected anon message; Second role was essentially a "claim yourself vanilla", other was force a self-vote; pings from Sabrar for lack of voting; willing to self-hammer; fullclaim

Carlington: rejected 1-shot lynch immunity, kill vulnerability; emlightened suspicious for rejected role, SG for early vote


I don't feel that much wiser after this…

SirGabriel has been vocal and active, willing to explain his actions; perhaps a little defensive at times - neutral-town

Sabrar: rejected a townie power, tunnelling pretty severely on dimochka, claimed private communication power - somewhat scummy

adnapemit: I don't get a lot of feel from what has been posted - neutral

jimbobmacadoodle: Has been away somewhat, rejected power was probably not appealing to either side - neutral

emlightened: I thought the idea that she would be a poor night kill target somewhat strange, pushed through the dimochka full-claim, weird uncertainty about whether there is a mafia kill (I would assume there is unless proven otherwise) - neutral-off (maybe independent?)

Esthr: not a whole lot to go on - neutral

dimochka: ill-advised PGO claim, fatalism, some inconsistency in expectations for others, fullclaim - neutral-scummy

Carlington: few posts, rejected a scummy role - neutral

Vote: Sabrar

If all goes well, I should be able to revisit this.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:56 pm UTC

Sabrar's now at L-1, please don't hammer until he has a chance to tell us what he knows about Esthr.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:57 pm UTC

Esthr wrote:So at this point, I don't have any reason to doubt that you are a Mason. (I'm pretty sure none of the pokemon roles have chat-related powers.) I'm willing to share my role with you and discuss potential lynches and night actions.


Sabrar wrote:Thank you for trusting me but I don't want to mislead you even by accident. I'm not a Mason originally, as I mentioned in my first pm I chose this ability. My Pokemon is Houndour and the flavor is that I can communicate well with others due to my barks.


Esthr wrote:Oh, wow, I had the complete wrong idea. Thank you for clarifying.

Well, that changes things doesn't it. Give me a minute.

...um...

I guess that doesn't change too much. I won't give up my role just yet obviously, but we should still make use of this chat to share our thoughts a bit more informally.

My latest analysis matches my real thoughts more or less. If there's a difference, it's my level of confidence. This is probably common on D1 but analysis I do feels like nitpicking. SirGabriel's defensive post is pinging me, but not nearly enough to actually vote for him.


Sabrar wrote:Two thoughts from my side:
- Your previous post in which you offered to share with me your role and night-actions looked very townie to me, that's why I didn't hesitate to clarify my Pokemon (also I have no other abilities so if you're scum it makes no sense to kill me, right? :D ). It could have been a ploy I guess? First you offer to share but don't just yet and then later you realize your 'mistake' and refrain? I have no idea whether you'd be capable to pull off something like that as scum but for now I'm sticking with my gut reading.
- I find SirGabriel's unvote also weak, however he seems to be very knowledgeable about the flavor and he suspects dimochka for flavor reasons while I suspect him because of his PGO claim so it looks to me like actual scum-hunting. I think it's unlikely that both are town. I would be more comfortable with a dimochka lynch right now but should he flip Town I'll take a second look at SirGabriel.


Esthr wrote:I really just read Mason and thought it was independent from your pokemon role. I'm not clever enough to come up with a gambit like that. Likewise, you could have taken advantage of my confusion and gotten my role in the next message, so I believe you are town as well.

I was far from confident of my read on SirGabriel, and his last analysis makes me feel much better. His flavor-based suspicion on dimochka is very appealing. I can grasp the reasoning better than the earlier arguments about dimochka's claim. The fact that you both came to the same conclusion for different reasons is strong evidence against him.

I'll post my thoughts about a dimochka full claim in the thread sometime today.


I simply believe her willingness to share her ability because of an understandable misread made her trust me more than she should have.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Esthr » Mon Feb 15, 2016 3:07 pm UTC

I have only read up to Sabrar's claim. I'm just posting to confirm that Sabrar chose me as his chat-partner. Based on our chat interaction so far I am absolutely confident that Sabrar is Town.


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