Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (Game Over)

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby emlightened » Tue Mar 29, 2016 7:32 pm UTC

EBWOP: By which I mean I'll post after people have claimed what they want, and we finally have some solid stuff to go off.

Sorry, pressed the send button too soon.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 29, 2016 7:39 pm UTC

@emlightened: please explain why you tracked me after I claimed having no actions on N1 here.
The same way mpolo claimed Miller so cop wouldn't waste an investigation, you could have easily found a better target.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby emlightened » Tue Mar 29, 2016 8:20 pm UTC

I didn't see it.

And I don't think you could call that analogy fair, considering that you could easily have been lying and, if you weren't careful and targeted someone, tracking you could have gotten us a confirmed scum.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:09 am UTC

I don't have any results to claim, except that it's possible, but unlikely, that one of the deaths was caused by me. I kind of want that to be the case, though, because if emlightened is right that there are two anti-town kills then I think the only way town can now win is if scum and SK hit each other.

All things considered, lynching survivor!emlightened is a poor idea and I don't doubt the veracity of the claim, so we ought not vote emlightened imo.

I believe this was the last reads list I posted:
Carlington wrote:Currently:
Town:
mpolo
Chane
crucialityfactor
Sabrar
Snark
bessie
kalira
emlightened
:Scum

Should Chane be lying:
Town:
mpolo
bessie
kalira
Snark
emlightened
Sabrar
crucialityfactor
Chanel
:Scum

Now, I'll remove the players that have died, and I'll remove emlightened since she's apparently Survivor so I'm happy to leave her be. Also, looking at where the votes fell at the end of day yesterday, I want to maybe move Sabrar down a space on each list. I also kinda want to change bessie and kalira around, mainly because of bessie's play at the end of yesterday pinging me a little with the way she talked about her thought process when deciding who to vote for - but kalira has been too quiet to look townier than bessie imo, so I'll leave them be. That gives us:

Currently:
Town:
Chane
crucialityfactor
bessie
Sabrar
kalira
:Scum

Should Chane be lying:
Town:
bessie
kalira
crucialityfactor
Sabrar
Chane
:Scum

To decide which of these lists is the right one, I need a little more information. To wit - Chane, you said yesterday that you could prove you were town. So, prove it.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby bessie » Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:56 am UTC

I’m sorry, this will be brief. My dog is very sick.

I don’t have any night results to claim.

I would like Chane’s proof that she is a doctor.
Chane wrote:If you give me till day 2, you'll have a reason. I can prove that I am indeed a doctor. If I can't, feel free to lynch me. Explain to me what have you got to lose? If I am scum, you lynch me tomorrow. Again, what do you have to lose?

ANSWER TRUTHFULLY OR I WILL HURT YOU.


I'll try to get back to this tonight or tomorrow morning.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby crucialityfactor » Wed Mar 30, 2016 1:11 pm UTC

I am very surprised to be alive at the moment. Anyway, I watched Sabrar last night an saw that emlightened visited him. Not that that really gives us that much info. I was figuring that I would probably be dead today, and if mafia didn't target me with a kill that Sabrar would probably be the next likely target. But, we are both alive today, so my reasoning was off.

I don't really see how Chane can prove that she is a doctor at this point. But, I don't really need her proof to convince me not to vote for her.

That long break is really throwing me for a loop right now. I need to recollect my thoughts and re-evaluate what I think of everyone.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Mar 30, 2016 6:09 pm UTC

I just realised I made a mistake in Madge's reveal. Please ignore the old one.

Madge was Hurin, a Sniffer and Town. Each night she could target a player, and would be informed of the name of one random player who that player targeted (if any).

My apologies for any confusion caused.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Mar 30, 2016 6:25 pm UTC

Thank you, that makes more sense.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Mar 30, 2016 7:54 pm UTC

While we're waiting for Chane (and kalira) to appear I would like to answer this concern:
bessie wrote:Sabrar- I don’t know what to say about your defense of Chane. You believe she is town and you have your reasons, and I will accept that you don’t want to discuss your reasons yet. I do wonder if your reasons are flavor based. Do you believe she’s town because it fits in with a flavor based reason? If yes, please ask yourself if perhaps you want the game to fit the flavor too much, and if it is affecting your judgment.

My reasons relied heavily on flavor (but not exclusively) and I do think the game fits the flavor very closely. Mainly because there are a lot of signs that tell me that jimbob handles this game with the same kind of zeal that I had regarding Dollhouse. He clearly puts a lot of effort into writing flavor-text (including individual role-pm-s), he's enthusiastic about the source material, etc. I'm sure he chose his characters carefully to fit the standard roles that would appear in Mafia.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Mar 31, 2016 11:44 am UTC

Could we have a mod-prod on Chane and kalira please?

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby bessie » Thu Mar 31, 2016 4:30 pm UTC

I only have a few minutes right now, but I should have time tonight to reply to D2 posts. I started a list of claims. Waiting for Chane and kalira to claim night actions.

Roles
bessie – No claims.
Carlington – No claims.
Chane – Town doctor (claim).
crucialityfactor – N1 watcher (claim).
Diemo/Madge – Hurin, Town tracker (confirmed).
emlightened – Elyas Machera, Independent survivor, tracker (claim).
kalira – No claims.
mpolo – Masema Dagar, Town jailer, miller (confirmed).
Sabrar – No claims.
Snark – Perrin Aybara, Town cop, wolf brother (confirmed).

Actions
bessie – No results to claim.
Carlington – No results to claim, but possibly caused a death N1.
Chane – Not yet posted.
crucialityfactor – Watched emlightened visit Sabrar N1.
Diemo/Madge – Lynched D1.
emlightened – N1 tracked Sabrar, got no result (claim).
kalira – Not yet posted.
mpolo – Killed N1.
Sabrar – No actions N1 (claim).
Snark – Killed N1.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby kalira » Thu Mar 31, 2016 6:28 pm UTC

I did read yesterday, apologies for not posting, but I had a migraine the size of Texas.

Unfortunately, I have nothing to note as far as night results.

I don't think we have a SK. Mathematically it wouldn't really make sense, mechanics-wise. Assuming 2 mafia and 1 SK, if town does everything wrong, we only have one mislynch possible before town could only be a kingmaker. In my experience, mods don't like to give town that little leeway. I don't know what could have caused a second death, though Carlington seems to, but SK just doesn't make sense. (Leaving that in for reading purposes, but I realized later that I miscalculated. That setup would give two mislynches before such a situation would arise. Going to rethink possibility of SK now because I'm apparently an idjit.)

I will say Tracker seems like a weird power for a Survivor to me, especially in this game. I feel like a survivor would be more likely to have something that could help defend them rather than an investigation that wouldn't really help them avoid death, doubly weird because it's duplicative of an already confirmed town power.

I can't see all three of [Chane, CF, em] being mafia together, though, so CF's claimed result seems to back up em having some kind of night power that is not immediate death, but I'm not going to straight up accept her claim of Tracker Survivor yet. But if CF's claim is to be believed, then that means that nobody roleblocked em (as she thought might be the case before CF claimed a result). I do find it suspicious that em tracked Sabrar after he claimed no N1 action -- any time anyone claims something, especially D1, I feel like people don't really miss that stuff, especially especially when you're looking for a person to track. Em's defense calling Sabrar's analogy (to mpolo claiming miller to avoid wasting a cop) unfair is moot since she clearly didn't take that into account when deciding to track Sabrar.

I also find it a little weird people are so immediately willing to accept em's survivor claim with no evidence other than her not actively killing someone last night, but that's a question for later examination. Best I can do right now is accept she isn't a SK.

I'll admit I was leaning hard toward voting for Madgemo yesterday. Hurin was a good claim and might have made me change my mind, but Diemo had definitely acted the most scummy/weird yesterday, and Madge seemed to be trying to breadcrumb to mafia as well (though apparently that was a misread on my part). But that's neither here nor there.

Carlington, why are you moving Sabrar more scummy after yesterday's vote? Just for being third on the wagon?
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Mar 31, 2016 7:32 pm UTC

kalira wrote:Carlington, why are you moving Sabrar more scummy after yesterday's vote? Just for being third on the wagon?

Very quick note here: I never liked the '3rd on the wagon must be scum' idea. In fact it's completely ludicrous here, as originally mpolo (confirmed Town), then Snark (also confirmed Town) was the 3rd vote on Madge. I was the 3rd person to become the 3rd vote after Snark unvoted and asked for another vote on her.
Obviously this doesn't prove anything, I just wanted to point out for future games that you shouldn't take old experiences for granted, especially when your basic premise is untrue. Sorry, just had to get it off my chest.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby crucialityfactor » Thu Mar 31, 2016 8:29 pm UTC

kalira wrote:I also find it a little weird people are so immediately willing to accept em's survivor claim with no evidence other than her not actively killing someone last night, but that's a question for later examination. Best I can do right now is accept she isn't a SK.


I didn't really post anything on my thoughts of emlightened "tracking" Sabrar because honestly I'm still on the fence about things. I can see emlightened telling the truth, I'm not going to try to meta out if a survivor tracker makes sense or not. But, at the same time, my night action mixed with my read on her yesterday is making me think cult. But at the same time, I am always super paranoid about the possibility of there being a cult. So, I'm going to just try to figure out which way I want to go with things. For now, I think I'm going to lean towards her telling the truth.

Anyways, here where I stand right now with my reads.

Town
crucialityfactor
chane
sabrar (maybe cult?)

SK/Mafia
kalira
bessie
carlington

Independent
emlightened (maybe cult?)

Also, carlington, which death do you think might be attributable to you? And why?

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Thu Mar 31, 2016 9:13 pm UTC

kalira wrote:Carlington, why are you moving Sabrar more scummy after yesterday's vote? Just for being third on the wagon?
Not even third, just for being on the wagon. I'm not really happy with that reads list, on reflection, but out of the remaining players my only real scum reads are Chane and emlightened, and emlightened could be indie.

Regarding emlightened's claim, I'm not going to disbelieve Survivor/Tracker on the grounds that it wouldn't be the most useful power for a Survivor - I recently got given Survivor/Roleblocker in a game, and my claim was disbelieved, leading to my being lynched and an unwinnable situation for town.

crucialityfactor wrote:Also, carlington, which death do you think might be attributable to you? And why?
I don't know which, it could have been either one. I think this because of my role, which is a passive power with a random element to it. There's a small but nonzero probability that I caused a death and am unaware of the fact on any given night.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Thu Mar 31, 2016 9:16 pm UTC

Speedy EBWOP: The fact that it says "dead" and not just dead in modposts makes me wonder whether there's some sort of res mechanic in the game. Thoughts?
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Mar 31, 2016 9:28 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Death rules:
  1. You’re alive until the mod tells you that you're dead, by PM or in thread.
  2. Once you die, you may no longer post in this thread, but you may read spoilers in the discussion thread. That is your consolation prize.
  3. Any exceptions to these rules will be explicitly stated in a player's role PM.

Flavour:
  1. Flavour will be posted in italics.
  2. As lynching wasn't a particularly common thing in the Wheel of Time universe, a lynched or otherwise killed player may for purposes of flavour not be killed, but may be thrown into a dark cell, exiled, or otherwise removed from the scene of action. In any case, the mod will refer to them as being "dead" for clarity in bold.

I highly doubt that there would be a 'res' role as 'dead' players could by the above rules immediately read the spoilers as they probably don't know about any other player's role-pm.

On another note I have reason to believe that there is cult in the game and I suspect emlightened to be the leader. I will explain myself in more detail after Chane claims.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby emlightened » Thu Mar 31, 2016 9:50 pm UTC

As for my role, I will say that there is more to it than just being a Tracker, and I will reveal this after N2. (Assuming, of course, my target doesn't get nightkilled.)


I'm slightly disappointed that Sabrar's reason for believing Chane is so flavour reliant, but that doesn't mean it's wrong. If Chane doesn't participate, I'm happy to vote for her, for now.


Ugh, no pings, and none of the claims are remarkable.

Town
~~~
Carlington (Nothing really scummy.)
Sabrar (Nothing really scummy, and he's pushed himself out for Chane a lot.)
bessie (Nothing really scummy, but that's also her meta, so down slightly.)
crucialityfactor (Slightly suspicious for NK reasoning on self and safeclaim.)
Chane (Mainly lurking, particularly when compared to D1.)
kralia (I found her scummy on D1, but she's gotten townier.)
~~~
Scum

<ninja'd by Sabrar>
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby emlightened » Thu Mar 31, 2016 10:04 pm UTC

EBWOP: The D3 claim will be partially verifiable, by my target (if they don't die) and, possibly, Sabrar.


I'd guess that the most likely reason for you to suspect that is because Survivor is a fairly safe claim for a Cultist, and that you think someone attempted to recruit you.

Let's wait for Chane.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby bessie » Fri Apr 01, 2016 4:53 am UTC

emlightened, I’m curious as to why you targeted Sabrar. He was at the top of your D1 town list. With Madge’s updated role reveal, I’m more skeptical of your claim because you would both be trackers.

Carlington wrote: I also kinda want to change bessie and kalira around, mainly because of bessie's play at the end of yesterday pinging me a little with the way she talked about her thought process when deciding who to vote for

Can you please elaborate on what is pinging you? Because I was voting for emlightened since the bottom of page two, and I never moved my vote (though I did unvote and revote emlightened, placing Chane as the leader of the tied votals, in an attempt to encourage Chane to post some content).

Sabrar wrote:While we're waiting for Chane (and kalira) to appear I would like to answer this concern:
bessie wrote:Sabrar- I don’t know what to say about your defense of Chane. You believe she is town and you have your reasons, and I will accept that you don’t want to discuss your reasons yet. I do wonder if your reasons are flavor based. Do you believe she’s town because it fits in with a flavor based reason? If yes, please ask yourself if perhaps you want the game to fit the flavor too much, and if it is affecting your judgment.

My reasons relied heavily on flavor (but not exclusively) and I do think the game fits the flavor very closely. Mainly because there are a lot of signs that tell me that jimbob handles this game with the same kind of zeal that I had regarding Dollhouse. He clearly puts a lot of effort into writing flavor-text (including individual role-pm-s), he's enthusiastic about the source material, etc. I'm sure he chose his characters carefully to fit the standard roles that would appear in Mafia.

Sabrar, your answer to me was what I expected. You may be right about the flavor, but my concern was that you decided on a role that fit Chane’s content, and perhaps you were going to start looking for clues that fit what powers you would expect that role to have. Like, maybe believing she is an Innocent Child because it would make flavor sense?

Sorry I only got about halfway through D2. Still waiting on Chane but I suppose she’s been mod prodded by now, so we should hear from her soon.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Apr 01, 2016 5:16 am UTC

bessie wrote:Like, maybe believing she is an Innocent Child because it would make flavor sense?

No, I have another reason for that which I will probably reveal later today.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Apr 01, 2016 8:40 am UTC

Warning: first of my usual wall-of-texts is incoming.

I'm writing this out because I'm bored of waiting for Chane's claim and it shouldn't really have an impact on this. Also depending on circumstances we might not get an extension, weekends are slow anyways so we should utilize all the time we have to discuss this. There is so much more I want to talk about (updated setup-speculation, Carlington's weird claim, why-s and how-s of N1 actions) but this is the part that is least affected by Chane.
Here follows my train of thought of emlightened being cult-leader. I've included all steps so you could decide for yourself if I got biased at some point (as bessie mentioned this possibility regarding my beliefs in Chane):

1. From the get-go I find it highly likely that there's cult in the game, otherwise it would feel to me like jimbob wouldn't have mentioned the possibility when he also declared that 'the mod will not deliberately try to mislead you though!'

2. I ask the mod a question on another topic (via pm) and a certain word/phrase in his reply (which I unfortunately can't reveal as it would constitute a 'direct quote from mod-pm' which is prohibited) suggests that player alignment can change during the course of the game. Again, 'the mod will not deliberately try to mislead you though!' so I feel that jimbob wouldn't have worded his answer in such a way if cult weren't present.

3. emlightened almost surely isn't Town as she wouldn't claim Independent in that case (except in some very fringe cases).

4. If she were standard scum then I believe her partner would have helped her during the end of the D1 votes and not leaving up for chance. In more detail: 4 players voted for Diemo/Madge, 2 are revealed to be Town, I know of myself that I'm Town so there could only be at most 1 scum-vote. There was I think a significant amount of time when emlightened led the votals by some margin and I think her partner would have stepped up during that period.

5. Therefore she's almost certainly Independent as she claimed (might be obvious to some, but as I mentioned I'M including all steps and I like to be thorough).

6. As mentioned before, Tracker is an odd power for a Survivor and it also duplicates an already existing townie role. Two addendums:
- Carlington brings up a valid point of a previous game (Dollhouse) where he played a Survivor Roleblocker. However in that case I tried to make it clear at the beginning that roles and alignments will not necessarily be synchronised and I don't think the same is true here.
- emlightened claims that her role has more to it and I could possibly verify it tomorrow. I'm not seeing this possibility as I didn't receive any communication from the mod regarding N1 and she apparently wasn't roleblocked as crucialityfactor saw her.

7. Normally Watcher/Tracker would be a bad idea to give to scum as a safe-claim, as it relies on other player's action, forcing you to guess correctly. However Tracker works for a Cult Leader as (assuming recruitment succeeds and they get day-chat) s/he can always ask about the new member's previous night action so it can be 'verified' independently.

8. Now comes the big question: if I suspect emlightened to be Cult leader and she targeted me, why should you trust me? Unfortunately I cannot give you an overall satisfying answer, I can only state that I have reason to believe (based on flavor) that I'm unrecruitable. Depending on future content today, I might elaborate on that.


To sum it up: based on the mod's content I think there is Cult in the game. Based on meta-reasons I do not buy emlightened's Tracker claim but I think that she's Independent. There is no direct evidence for my suspicion (how could it be?), however there is nothing to contradict it either. My reads on D1 were terrible (except maybe for Chane who I currently still believe, partly because no-one counter-claimed Doctor D1 and it would be an almost obligatory townie-role to include). Therefore I'm relying mostly on meta-arguments this time, with no regard to actual content, just claims and voting patterns.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Apr 01, 2016 8:59 am UTC

EBWOP
Sabrar wrote:There is no direct evidence for my suspicion (how could it be?), however there is nothing to contradict it either.

What I meant to say here is that I'm using a lot of negative inference to prove my point.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Carlington » Fri Apr 01, 2016 9:40 am UTC

First off, happy April Fools' Day everyone!

bessie wrote:I’m really trying to understand your scummy behavior as a difference in gameplay style but you’re making it difficult, so I will do this:

Unvote
Vote: emlightened


So Chane, you have the following choices. First, you can convince Snark you aren’t scum so he unvotes. Second, you can start contributing by helping to find scum, voting, and giving reasons for your vote. Finally, you place vote on someone that already has a vote without giving a reason, but be forewarned that if you place a save-your-ass vote without a reason to back it up I will find that very suspicious.

bessie, it was this. But I realise, having read back, that I had it backwards in my head. The pingy feeling I had was based on you dangling the lynch over Chane's head at the same time as switching the lynch target to emlightened, which would make no sense. In actuality, what you did did make sense, and reading back has me leaning back to town on you.

While waiting for Chane to post and Sabrar to maybe explain more about what night results would have given him information on Chane's role, I did some wiki-crawling to try and hammer out an idea of where the second kill might have come from and whether an SK is likely. I'm going to wildly speculate here, but what else is there to do, really?

Based on my role, the setting (both place and time), and other information in my role PM, I think that were there to be an SK, then it would make sense for that SK to be Padan Fain. It would also make sense, knowing what I do, for Padan Fain to be in the game.

Based on how Darkfriends seem to operate, it seems as though some sort of recruitment mechanic would fit for them (I see that I've been ninja'd by Sabrar about this but I'll finish writing and then respond if I need to after I post). However, they also do kill people, and it would make sense for Darkfriends to play an anti-town role, i.e. mafia. I think that in a power-heavy game like this, it might be balanced to have one SK, and one or two mafiosi, but to give the mafia a choice between a kill and a recruit each night. Having at least two kills and a cult (plus the possibility of extra kills coming from at least me and maybe others) seems like way too much, but having a recruiting mafia and forcing them to choose mitigates this while adding spice. Corroborating evidence: the wording of my PM strongly suggests that at the very least, powers can change during the game, and it's not a long stretch from there to wincon changing.

My guess regarding Madge's ability based on her nameclaim was bang on, so I'm feeling pretty lucky and willing to speculate a little more about roles and setup today, but as always, feedback is appreciated.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Fri Apr 01, 2016 12:54 pm UTC

Jesus dammit I think I was wrong before. I need to sleep but I need to post this first, please excuse word salad if present.

If I did kill anyone last night, I think it was more likely mpolo than Snark. I think this because the flavour in my role does not match the flavour in Snark's death. I also think this because I do not think that Snark would have copped me last night, but instead one of his scum reads who was not lynched. I seem to have been coming off as fairly neutral to him, and while I can't say who he'd target as a cop, I can say that I probably wouldn't cop my most neutral reads, especially on a D1 like this.
mpolo, however, had me as his towniest read in his last reads post, and as I hadn't claimed anything it would make sense for him to Jail his towniest read to keep them safe, even if it would mean losing a potential power. I can't guarantee anything, but this makes sense to me, and given the ambiguity in his death flavour, his death is the only one I can believe I could have caused, if I did indeed cause a death.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:33 pm UTC

Chane has been modprodded and has 24 hours to post or be replaced.

Soft deadline on Monday, 4th April 18.30 UTC. An extension will be granted if replacements happen.

Votals:

None

The "This post intentionally left blank" post is not game related. The D2 flavour double-posted and I couldn't delete it, so I edited it out. I thought I'd leave it there for humour.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:46 pm UTC

Thank you!

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby bessie » Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:54 pm UTC

Brief post now to keep things moving (I’ve been trying to compose a post for the last hour but things keep coming up, now I need to leave for work). I will be available tonight and this weekend.

I would like emlightened to answer my previous question, reposted to ensure she doesn’t overlook it.
bessie wrote:emlightened, I’m curious as to why you targeted Sabrar. He was at the top of your D1 town list. With Madge’s updated role reveal, I’m more skeptical of your claim because you would both be trackers.

I will just come straight out and say that I don’t believe your claim to be Elyas Machera. This is for a flavor reason, and partially because of Snark’s role reveal. I don’t believe you’re a wolf brother. I don’t want to fall into the same trap that I’ve been cautioning Sabrar about, by trying to force flavor into game reads. But I have other concerns about emlightened and I’ll try to compose a better post tonight after she answers my question.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Apr 01, 2016 4:08 pm UTC

Some more points to get discussion going (different timezones is problematic when we're all waiting for an important piece of information and the deadline is shortly after the weekend):
Carlington wrote:While waiting for Chane to post and Sabrar to maybe explain more about what night results would have given him information on Chane's role,

At the time I made that statement I thought scum's best target would be the claimed Doctor and it would in some way provide info about Chane's claim (who seemed willing to be targeted). However after Snark basically claimed Cop (and I maybe helped scum discover that) he obviously became a much better target as Chane would never protect him.

Unless bessie or kalira are counterclaiming Doctor I probably still won't vote for Chane. Doctor is the second most basic townie role (after Cop) and I would be extremely surprised if jimbob didn't include some version of it in this game. Should anyone counterclaim Doctor, please explain why you kept quiet D1?

I disagree with some of Carlington's reasoning, though the basic premise seems correct. As mentioned above I find it likely that scum killed Snark but I don't think Carlington was mpolo's towniest read and as he wasn't a very likely NK target jailing him would have probably done more harm than good. Then again I've learned not to assume that everyone thinks alike so I've no idea what to do with this.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby emlightened » Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:17 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
bessie wrote:emlightened, I’m curious as to why you targeted Sabrar. He was at the top of your D1 town list. With Madge’s updated role reveal, I’m more skeptical of your claim because you would both be trackers.

I will just come straight out and say that I don’t believe your claim to be Elyas Machera. This is for a flavor reason, and partially because of Snark’s role reveal. I don’t believe you’re a wolf brother. I don’t want to fall into the same trap that I’ve been cautioning Sabrar about, by trying to force flavor into game reads. But I have other concerns about emlightened and I’ll try to compose a better post tonight after she answers my question.


Okay, time to claim my actual role. On D1, my role PM stated that I had to find someone, and on successfully targeting them I would get a new role PM (the person changed if they got killed). I chose Sabrar pretty much randomly, and planned to claim getting no result regardless of getting roleblocked; I just happened to pick the player who claimed to have no night actions.

Picking Sabrar (although not sensible given my fakeclaim) turned out to be the right choice, as he was the player I needed to find. At the start of D2, I got a new role PM. I am now able to target one person each night and learn their role name, and if I find the right person (a recurring theme) I get a third PM.

The Survivor claim on D1 was also faked*; I also had no idea what my wincon was at the time. My new PM tells me I'll win if I live to the end of the game and manage to find the person mentioned above, so I actually am a Survivor at this point. (I think my new PM will let me win before the game otherwise wouild end, because what would be the point otherwise?)

* I claimed Survivor because I'm indie, and didn't know if a cop could determine whether I was town/non-town, or scum/non-scum; this was the obvious safeclaim.

I don't know if Sabrar will have any idea about this or not.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:53 pm UTC

@emlightened: did you have to find a specific player or role? What kind of information have you learned about me (NOT the specifics)? You say 'I am now able to target one person each night and learn their role name,'. In what way is this different from your previous ability?

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Apr 02, 2016 6:30 am UTC

I’ll try to explain my suspicions of emlightened, as I promised earlier.

Summary of emlightened's content.

P1: Three short posts, almost no content. Attacked another player and did not follow up after that player responded. These are the reasons I initially voted for her.

P2: Nothing.

P3: Three real life days later, finally makes a content post. Attacks Chane and fishes for her role.
emlightened wrote:As far as guessing town!Chane's role? She's a partial doc who claims to know crucialityfactor's alignment (and doesn't find him scummy, so that third-party/town), so that would suggest Mason-Doctor. She alludes to another reason to not lynch her, and that Snark would be killed for doing so, so that might be some sort of revenge power, but is far more likely just naïvety at how lynching normally goes, combined with having a PR. Mason-Doctor seems slightly too powerful, so I'd guess possibly some other form of private chat that doesn't guarantee alignments and he claimed third-party (or town) to her, or being a Jack-of-All-Trades instead of a doctor. Maybe a N0 cop ability?


Next post is a nice analysis post, but she ends it by fishing for Snark’s role/Sabrar’s alignment.
emlightened wrote:I'm not sure if asking Snark about whether he knows Sabrar's alignment is a good idea or not. (Same reason as with Chane and cruciality in my first post; noted now as I only noticed on a reread.)

In the same post she makes a town-scum list with Sabrar as towniest, Chane and Diemo as scumiest, and votes for Diemo.

A few posts later, changes her mind and labels Chane scummy but town.
emlightened wrote:One of the scummier players in the game, mind you, but town.


P4: No posts, but was leading the votals for the entire page.

P5: Quiet for most of the page when Madge was leading the votals. About 3 hours before deadline, Sabrar put emlightened in the lead and she finally responded, after lurking for 4 real life days. Claimed to be Elyas Machera, survivor tracker. Also said this:
emlightened wrote:I'm going to say that I felt a bit uncomfortable that we had more votes come on DieMadge, as my vote for them at the time was mainly based on them being the scummiest player in the game at the time, when nobody was particularly scummy. Oh well.

She must not have felt that uncomfortable, because an hour later her last D1 post was an attack on Diemo/Madge.

D2 content: emlightened claimed she targeted Sabrar, her towniest read. This was confirmed by crucialityfactor.

In a later post crucialityfactor expresses concern that emlightened may be cult. Then Sabrar makes a long post with his reasons for suspecting emlightened may be the cult leader. bessie pushes emlightened to answer a question and says she doesn’t believe the tracker claim or the name claim.

emlightened changes her claim to unnamed independent nonantitown survivor, who serially searches for a named player, and when she finds her target she receives a new target. She claims initially not knowing her win condition, but now that she has discovered her initial target her win condition is to find her second target and survive to end game. Why then would you receive a third role PM, if your second role PM stated your win condition?

I was hoping I could tie this all together clearly, but I've already been working on this on and off all night, so I'm just going to throw what I have out there. I might revisit this later. I strongly believe emlightened is anti town independant, maybe cult, because of the visit to Sabrar without a kill.

I will work on my reads of other players tomorrow, but my reads of crucialityfactor and Sabrar are somewhat associated with my read on Chane, so hopefully she will post soon.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby emlightened » Sat Apr 02, 2016 7:38 am UTC

(Can only do short post right now.)

@Sabrar: None at all. I was told that I 'corrupted' you, but was given nothing else.

@bessie: I think, based on that I have to find a dagger, I become a SK.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Apr 02, 2016 7:53 am UTC

@emlightened: quick question: if you haven't learned anything about me and don't know my name or role, why would you think that I might be able to verify your claims tomorrow?

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Sat Apr 02, 2016 8:08 am UTC

As long as we're asking questions of emlightened: When you say a new role PM, do you mean that you have a new character, or that your PM was updated for the same character?

In either case, I believe emlightened's most recent claim is true.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Sat Apr 02, 2016 8:18 am UTC

EBWOP: I believe emlightened's claimed role. I don't think Sabrar was really who she needed to find, and I think she's improvising to try and tease that information out. Which is also why she's role-fishing. Had it been Sabrar, I feel that the results may have been more dramatic than "corrupting" him.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Apr 02, 2016 5:29 pm UTC

At first I thought that emlightened's claim explained her role-fishing quite well but if she only had to guess her first target without any knowledge about his/her role and she didn't know what would be in her 2nd role-pm then this does not hold up. Furthermore having to rely upon hitting a specific player instead of a role doesn't seem like a good mechanic as it has no ties to the general gameplay at all. The only doubt I currently have is that I don't think this would be a safe-claim provided by the mod and if emlightened is making it up she wouldn't hint at possibly becoming an SK.
Hopefully with the extension we'll have the time to figure this out.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby kalira » Sat Apr 02, 2016 8:52 pm UTC

OK, I'm getting a little confused with the discussion abt em, so I'm going to ask for clarification.

Carlington wrote:EBWOP: I believe emlightened's claimed role.
When you say role, what exactly do you mean? Her claimed power, faction, or role name (or something else)?

Sabrar wrote:... if she only had to guess her first target without any knowledge about his/her role and she didn't know what would be in her 2nd role-pm then this does not hold up. Furthermore having to rely upon hitting a specific player instead of a role doesn't seem like a good mechanic as it has no ties to the general gameplay at all.
Okay, I don't know if it's just me, or the day, or what, but I'm not quite understanding this. Could you spell it out a little more Barney-style for me? (It's probably just me)

I'm gonna outright say the role name doesn't make sense with anything em's said. Elyas was never a corrupting influence -- he just wanted to be left alone, pretty much. Fain seems much likelier with wording like that. I worry about the wording "corrupted" as well... It seems like it could be a poison thing (i.e., administered night X, but victim doesn't die until a later night). Sabrar, just in case this is a thing, please keep us as informed as you feel comfortable regarding your readings, etc. before nightfall each day.

I don't know whether I think em is a (sometimes?) SK or a cult leader, but atm I think either is possible. If SK, clearly a poisoning type, as we know who she targeted someone last night and they aren't dead. Corrupted also lends itself to pulling someone over to the Dark One's side. If she's cult leader and it didn't pull Sabrar in as of dawn of this day, her saying Sabrar might be able to confirm something D3 might be something to do with pulling him into the cult.

Of course, this is all based on something em said, and we already know she's lied to us, so why should we believe her the specific words she's using? Could she be using that word to try to draw something out of one of the other remaining players, like Carlington said? Same goes for any of the other information she's given us. So much wine.

*If* em is truthful about having to target someone, I can't imagine it not being her character looking for someone in a specific role name or power. I've only been in one game ever where there was a mechanic where an indy character didn't have a wincon at the start of a game, and it was a character that I replaced into in that game (my character found a knife that they *had* to use for a vig kill, but then took on the wincon of the vigged person -- it was "13 Ghosts of Scooby Doo," if anyone cares to go look). And I've never seen a game where an indy gets a "just target anyone and I'll tell you more," so she's got to have some information she's basing her decisions on.

Sabrar wrote:2. I ask the mod a question on another topic (via pm) and a certain word/phrase in his reply (which I unfortunately can't reveal as it would constitute a 'direct quote from mod-pm' which is prohibited) suggests that player alignment can change during the course of the game.
Not asking for the word/phrase in question, but was the word/phrase something related to flavor that gave you that impression, or some language related to Mafia itself that did the same?

Carlington: if I'm reading what you're saying about yourself correctly, you are claiming to be a (sometimes?) PGO. Why wouldn't you claim that D1, especially in a game you know to be power heavy?

Sabrar wrote:
kalira wrote:Carlington, why are you moving Sabrar more scummy after yesterday's vote? Just for being third on the wagon?

Very quick note here: I never liked the '3rd on the wagon must be scum' idea. In fact it's completely ludicrous here, as originally mpolo (confirmed Town), then Snark (also confirmed Town) was the 3rd vote on Madge. I was the 3rd person to become the 3rd vote after Snark unvoted and asked for another vote on her.
Obviously this doesn't prove anything, I just wanted to point out for future games that you shouldn't take old experiences for granted, especially when your basic premise is untrue. Sorry, just had to get it off my chest.
Yeah, we've had that discussion abt 3rd on wagon before in multiple games. I just wanted to know if that was his only reasoning for it or not (since I agree that it's often a pretty weak argument, esp D1).
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Apr 02, 2016 9:28 pm UTC

kalira wrote:
Sabrar wrote:... if she only had to guess her first target without any knowledge about his/her role and she didn't know what would be in her 2nd role-pm then this does not hold up. Furthermore having to rely upon
hitting a specific player instead of a role doesn't seem like a good mechanic as it has no ties to the general gameplay at all.
Okay, I don't know if it's just me, or the day, or what, but I'm not quite understanding this. Could you spell it out a little more Barney-style for me? (It's probably just me)

bessie highlighted multiple instances of emlightened's role-fishing from D1. OTOH if emlightened needs to target a specific character then that would make a lot of sense and I began doubting myself. However after a bit of thought and her latest reply I'm again convinced that she's not telling the truth about something. In order not to reveal anything, I'm going to use Game of Thrones characters as examples instead of WoT.

Suppose emlightened is Arya Stark and needs to find Jaqen H'ghar in order to get more training. She targets me N1 and receives confirmation from the mod that she found her target. At this point she would know my role name (but not necessarily my ability). Suppose instead that she needs to find the 'Assassin Master', an SK for our purposes. If she gets positive confirmation she would know my ability (but not the name of my character).

However she denied having any info about me, so these cannot be the case. Furthermore she also claimed that her first role-pm only mentioned that she would get a second one after she accomplished this task, so she couldn't have known that she would later need to find a specific role or character. So her role-fishing wasn't necessary for her to succeed. Therefore if she speaks the truth she had to have the goal of blindly finding 1 specific player, without any game-related information available. I highly doubt that this would be a role in a game with minimal bastardry.

kalira wrote:Sabrar, just in case this is a thing, please keep us as informed as you feel comfortable regarding your readings, etc. before nightfall each day.

Of course. Again I like to wait for more information, e.g. Chane's replacement. Also there was little new content from you and crucialityfactor.

kalira wrote:
Sabrar wrote:2. I ask the mod a question on another topic (via pm) and a certain word/phrase in his reply (which I unfortunately can't reveal as it would constitute a 'direct quote from mod-pm' which is prohibited) suggests that player alignment can change during the course of the game.
Not asking for the word/phrase in question, but was the word/phrase something related to flavor that gave you that impression, or some language related to Mafia itself that did the same?

Not the flavor, rather the rules of the game.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Sun Apr 03, 2016 12:43 am UTC

@kalira: I mean I believe her claimed power and alignment, and believe I know what her role name and wincon are. I think you know enough about the flavour to have figured out the same, if you look at her posts. That you haven't yet given any indication that anything in her posts tipped you off is suspicious to me. You don't seem surprised enough, for someone with flavour knowledge.
As for having not claimed immediately, it's because I'm less of a sometimes PGO and more of a possible PGO. My power has a random element, and I liked the odds I had of gaining useful information. I love high-stakes stuff like that, and I was hoping maybe I could bend chance to my favour. If I'm right about mpolo, though, that may have been a bad bet.
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