Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (Game Over)

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kalira
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby kalira » Sun Apr 03, 2016 2:59 am UTC

Carlington wrote:@kalira: I mean I believe her claimed power and alignment, and believe I know what her role name and wincon are. I think you know enough about the flavour to have figured out the same, if you look at her posts. That you haven't yet given any indication that anything in her posts tipped you off is suspicious to me. You don't seem surprised enough, for someone with flavour knowledge.


Well I was trying to avoid throwing too much flavor out and giving her information she wants. I did say I thought Fain was more likely than Elyas, but I was trying to see if others were of the same bent before going any further, because everyone seemed like they were fine with just accepting what she claimed at the beginning of the day. More specifically, I was trying to see if anyone on a theoretical scum team with her would slip up.

But if you really want me to throw it all out on the floor, I can. Em is definitely Padan Fain, if her softclaim is anything to be believed. She says she's searching for a dagger. Dagger is definitely the one from Shadar Logoth that Fain is obsessed with. At this point in the story, though, the dagger was I believe locked in a box with the Horn of Valere, and Fain was trying desperately to get to it. So if em is looking for the dagger, it's likely someone in game "has" it. Whether or not the person playing the character with it knows they have it, I don't know (obviously) -- they may have been told they have it, or it could be just in the mod's notes that X person has it without their active knowledge. It could be with a few people in my estimation based on flavor. Not going to go into any more detail or opinion there, though, unless consensus asks for more.

I still don't know that I believe the tracker power -- in fact, if she's telling the truth about looking for someone, based on my experience with Mafia, that would be what shows up as her targeting. Look at kalira to see if she's the one you're looking for, and if anyone's watching, they would see you as targeting/visiting kalira. I can't really see her having multiple night abilities, and again in my experience, the "look for your target" ability doesn't usually combine with a separate power (i.e., if they aren't your target, you get to see who they targeted last night). But that's meta, and I'm not entirely sure if I'm right on that given that I haven't played a game set up by jimbob before. As far as survivor, I'm not sure. Flavor-wise, Fain just really wanted to kill everyone. Just staying alive was never his bag, he was actively trying to murder, like, all the people.

I don't know why you think I'm supposed to feel surprised about Fain -- I said from the beginning that Fain seemed fairly likely to be in game, and if he was, he wasn't going to be on town's side. I was trying not to let the flavor overwhelm how I played -- it was possible flavor was somewhat altered to make Fain less of an active threat to town. I have yet to come to a decision on that piece as of now. Do I think em needs to be killed? Before end of game, I'm guessing that answer is probably, especially if she has the possibility of turning into an SK (presuming she isn't already one). Right now? My gut says yes because of flavor, but I want other opinions, hence why I haven't just outright voted for her already.

Could we get some kind of extension even if Chane is modkilled? At this point, we're <48 hours to deadline, which seems a bit close for major decisions like the lynch to be made without having had any input from one of our players to this point on the day.

Thanks for the response re: PGO non-claim. IDK if I would have made the same decision in your position, but I if that's what you were given, I can see where you were going with it.

Going to make an effort tomorrow to look at everyone else, hopefully given an extension we can look at more than just emlightened today. (@Emlightened, do you mind me calling you em? I can stop if it bothers you or anything, I just tend to shorten names for the purposes of "I have to refer to people a lot of times and I'm too lazy to write their name out a bunch".)
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby kalira » Sun Apr 03, 2016 3:09 am UTC

EBWOP: Forgot to comment on Sabrar's response.

Re: the thing I asked you to explain, okay, that makes more sense now. The Game of Thrones part was somewhat like what I said in my post, but now I understand that you were saying the weirdness came from her essentially seeming to claim that she had to find "Sabrar" rather than "person that Sabrar is playing." That does seem to lend itself to the idea that she may have been lying about having found the person she was looking for in you.

Sabrar wrote:Of course. Again I like to wait for more information, e.g. Chane's replacement. Also there was little new content from you and crucialityfactor.
Just to clarify, that wasn't meant in a "I don't think you're going to do this" or "You should do this now" way. More just a "Hey, it's possible you may die tonight, so make sure you've gotten everything out that you want to before nightfall." Not that I think it's unlikely, just that it's a thing that should be said just in case you hadn't thought of it already, since there's a possibility we're pre-warned of your death. (Of course, really we all should do it every day 'cause it's just as likely for any of us, but blah blah blah metabullplop.)
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:24 am UTC

kalira, your response was good, thank you. I think I was just expecting you to acknowledge how dangerous to town Fain is/can become. I'd prefer to try and lynch mafia than indie today, but if nothing else turns up then my vote will be on emlightened, so factor that into your decision as you will.

@bessie: You said that you didn't believe both emlightened and Snark would be wolf brothers (or at least implied it heavily). Was there anything else in Snark's flip that might have made you disbelieve emlightened? (A yes/no response to this question is fine; maybe even preferable).

@Sabrar: Do you believe that you were the player emlightened needed to find? Consider what you know of your own role, and of Padan Fain. (A yes/no answer is fine here, too).
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:34 am UTC

kalira wrote:More just a "Hey, it's possible you may die tonight, so make sure you've gotten everything out that you want to before nightfall."

I'm not afraid of dying tonight. :D

@Carlington: Now that you've mentioned PGO openly everyone is already aware of the danger in targeting you so I think it would help us immensely with figuring out the setup if you would reveal your ability (but not the role), at least the random element regarding the PGO stuff. Obviously if it has some additional elements that would be more beneficial to remain hidden then you shouldn't do it.

I will probably make a longer post later today with extended setup-speculation and meta-heavy arguments but I would like to hear Carlington's and emlightened's reply first.

ninja'd: @Carlington: I'm flavorblind but based on a very quick search on the wiki Padan Fain's only sensible target would be Rand al'Thor. So even a simple yes/no answer would reveal 'something'. Might reconsider later, meanwhile I'm fully aware that I'm doing the same to you but I don't like your role-fishing.
But since we're at this point anyway: you've mentioned earlier that you think Padan Fain is an SK. Now you think emlightened's Padan Fain and you say you believe her claimed role. What gives?

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Sun Apr 03, 2016 6:09 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
kalira wrote:More just a "Hey, it's possible you may die tonight, so make sure you've gotten everything out that you want to before nightfall."

I'm not afraid of dying tonight. :D
Why not?

@Carlington: Now that you've mentioned PGO openly everyone is already aware of the danger in targeting you so I think it would help us immensely with figuring out the setup if you would reveal your ability (but not the role), at least the random element regarding the PGO stuff. Obviously if it has some additional elements that would be more beneficial to remain hidden then you shouldn't do it.
I have no active ability. My ability is triggered by others targeting me, and has several possible outcomes, which can occur with various known probabilities. When I am targeted with an action, the two equal least likely outcomes are the action being carried out as normal, and the action failing and me killing the player that targeted me. There are other possible outcomes, which have higher probabilities of occurring. I don't want to talk about those now.

ninja'd: @Carlington: I'm flavorblind but based on a very quick search on the wiki Padan Fain's only sensible target would be Rand al'Thor. So even a simple yes/no answer would reveal 'something'. Might reconsider later, meanwhile I'm fully aware that I'm doing the same to you but I don't like your role-fishing.
But since we're at this point anyway: you've mentioned earlier that you think Padan Fain is an SK. Now you think emlightened's Padan Fain and you say you believe her claimed role. What gives?

It would have made sense, given what I knew at the time, for Padan Fain to be an SK. emlightened saying she needs to find a dagger, however, all but confirms her as Padan Fain. Her claim that she also needed to find a particular role and target them also makes sense for Padan Fain, as at this point in the timeline there are a few characters that Fain is searching for - he doesn't yet know which of them is the one he ought to be pursuing. By my count, there are two roles that could be confirmed as town through interactions with emlightened, and I have a decent idea of who has at least one of them, or at least I've narrowed it down. emlightened is a known quantity, and I know that I'm town, which leaves four players to pick probably two mafia from which can be further narrowed by confirming more people that emlightened needs to target.

I'm contemplating posting a big infodump before deadline, just in case. Is that a good or a bad idea?

Are we told if we're at LYLO/MYLO?
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Apr 03, 2016 6:29 am UTC

@Carlington: thank you for the reply. I thought that your claimed role was something like that but I would have classified it as 'sometimes PGO' as it could change from night to night and that's why I asked for clarification. Bit off-topic:
Spoiler:
To me 'possibly PGO' would have meant a role-pm like: "Your ability was set in stone using a random method before the game began. I'm not going to tell you what your role is but the result was obtained using the following probabilities: 50% chance to be Bulletproof, 30% chance to be Vengeful and 20% to be PGO."
Regarding infodump: if you're Town it's always a good idea. :)

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Sun Apr 03, 2016 6:41 am UTC

What about the other question?
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Apr 03, 2016 6:43 am UTC

I thought it was obvious that I'm deliberately not answering that.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Apr 03, 2016 6:50 am UTC

EBWOP to continue my role-fishing

@bessie, @kalira: currently I'm convinced that at least one of you must be scum, not because of your content but because I can rule the rest of the players (except for Carlington) out based on the claims so far. Will elaborate on that after emlightened's reply and hopefully mod's update on Chane. It would be nice if you could also claim something that would help to prove your innocence.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Apr 03, 2016 3:07 pm UTC

Sorry for the delay in responding. It's been a busy few days.

Effective immediately, zombie!Madge is replacing emlightened.

For the record emlightened requested replacement some time ago, as she was due to go on holiday yesterday.

A replacement is being sought for Chane. I'd prefer not to modkill her before day end, if I can avoid doing so. Unless people are absolutely desperate for her flip, I will not modkill her until the end of the night. This might allow a zombie replacement for her as well.
Carlington wrote:Are we told if we're at LYLO/MYLO?
No.

Soft deadline extended to 18:30 UTC Wednesday 6th April. Further extension may be granted if another replacement is found.

Votals:

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Apr 03, 2016 3:55 pm UTC

Welcome back Madge! We apologize for yesterday and hope you'll forgive us should we lynch you again. :lol:

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Madge » Mon Apr 04, 2016 9:29 am UTC

You'd better not lynch me again. *shakes fist*.

A lot has happened on D2, so I'm not up to date quite yet. Things look complicated.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Madge » Mon Apr 04, 2016 9:46 am UTC

OK to continue the line of questioning about emlightend's role, everything that she posted so far is true; I'm looking for a dagger. However, I don't think I become an SK, I think I become an assassin based on the way it's worded - it looks like there's someone I want dead specifically, and it doesn't even need to be me who kills them. If they're dead at the end of the game and I get the dagger, I win even if I die; if I live and either the named character is dead or I've got the dagger, I also win.

That said I do get a new PM if I get the dagger and if it turns out the dagger corrupts me and makes me an SK, well, that's bad because it's strictly inferior to my current win condition.

That said I think if I survive to the end of the game, the odds are my "target" is dead.

Hell, I'll out and say it - my target is Rand al'Thor, who looks to be the main Good Guy. So I think probably the "mafia" will end up killing him just by chance, and whoever you are, Rand al'Thor, you know to keep a lid on it so I don't kill you if I get my hands on the dagger.

So I think my options are:

- Try not to get the dagger and hope the mafia kills Rand al'Thor for me, and lets me live, meaning I get a win
- Try and get the dagger, maybe succeed, maybe the mafia kills Rand al'Thor, maybe I get killed in the process but at least I win
- If I get the dagger maybe my win condition changes, perhaps to SK, which will be annoying because it will almost be impossible

My original PM had no win con, so winning was impossible until I got out of jail. From reading the flavour I got, I think corrupting Sabrar did not get me released and someone else released me from prison somehow. So I don't think my 3rd PM will give me a wincon that is completely incompatible with my current one; but who knows.

In any event, as a survivor on hardmode, I'd like to offer my services to town; I am a namecop, but I know it's risky to have me do investigations because if I find Rand then I can maybe do evil things at some point; and if I find the dagger that might turn me into a full blown SK and nobody wants that.

Random fun fact: I can investigate the dead, in case it's useful (probably for getting the dagger, not so much for town).
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 04, 2016 9:56 am UTC

@Madge: in your interpretation of the original and new role pm-s:
1. Who did you have to find at first?
2. What kind of results would you receive from those investigations?
2. Why did you get a second role after emlightened targeted me if you think 'corrupting' me did not get you released?

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Madge » Mon Apr 04, 2016 10:07 am UTC

1. I had to corrupt the person who was keeping me in gaol; if they were killed I'd get a random, new jailer

2. From the first role PM, I would be released if I attempted to corrupt my jailer; if I tried to corrupt someone who was already corrupted, I would also be released; from N1 I got told I attempted corruption on you but was explicitly told I don't know if it was successful or not

3. I think a third party came and released me. The flavour basically said "you attempt to corrupt sabrar, it didn't seem to get you let out of the cell, so you had a nap, and then you are woken up by a hooded woman who lets you out and tells you to do what your master wants"

So I think I probably also have a "master" whose servant or whatever freed me. So I'm also a bit apprehensive about that changing my wincon as I think survivor + that guy dying (which will likely happen anyway because people tend to die in mafia games) is a pretty sweet gig.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 04, 2016 10:57 am UTC

emlightened wrote:Picking Sabrar (although not sensible given my fakeclaim) turned out to be the right choice, as he was the player I needed to find.

Madge wrote:OK to continue the line of questioning about emlightend's role, everything that she posted so far is true;

Madge wrote:"you attempt to corrupt Sabrar, it didn't seem to get you let out of the cell,"

Something is definitely not right here. I also doubt that you have a master as that would basically mean 4 antitown players and that seems excessive.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 04, 2016 12:08 pm UTC

@bessie, @kalira: if you have any claim that would explain either N1 death please do so now.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Mon Apr 04, 2016 12:17 pm UTC

Might cf not also have such a claim?
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 04, 2016 12:35 pm UTC

crucialityfactor claimed Watcher and is fmpov Town. I find it highly unlikely that he would have such a claim.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Mon Apr 04, 2016 12:52 pm UTC

Bah, of course, that's who said em visited you. Sorry. Need to read more before posting.

It would be ballsy, but could emlightened and cf have collaborated so that emlightened claimed to have visited you and cf claimed to have seen it? It would rely on no town watcher counterclaim, but maybe scum were given watcher as a safe claim?

I think probably it's more likely that cf is town and em really visited Sabrar last night, but I don't think em and Madge have told the entire story, and I really don't believe Sabrar was the player em needed to target.

We know that emlightened/Madge is Padan Fain, which gives her the potential to be incredibly dangerous to town. I'm strongly in favour of lynching Madge, but I want to get more information out of today so I'll wait until everyone posts more.
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

Please use he/him/his pronouns when referring to me.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby crucialityfactor » Mon Apr 04, 2016 12:55 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:Might cf not also have such a claim?


No, I already claimed my action. Watching Sabrar being visited by emlightened/madge

Anyways, I really was not buying the original back and forth between Sabrar and emlightened. Really seemed to scream cult to me. But since Kalira has come out and explained the flavor logic of it all, I am totally down for believing emlightened/madge. Madge's more in depth claim seems to paint Sabrar in a bad light. Implying that he is already corrupted. Corrupted certainly sounds bad to me.

Ninja'd:
That felt like a really scummy post there Carlington. I need to go back and look at your posts now.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:24 pm UTC

Should Chane be mod-killed it is imperative that we lynch scum tonight, otherwise we won't be able to win from a 2-2 position. That is the only reason why I currently don't support lynching Madge. Possible huge infodump coming tomorrow after everyone had the chance to comment, please don't vote prematurely.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:33 pm UTC

You're still treating Chane as confirmed town, when her promised proof was never forthcoming.

@cf, I can see why you say that, but please let us know what you think after you read back as well.

I'm going to bed now, hopefully more content tomorrow.
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

Please use he/him/his pronouns when referring to me.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:38 pm UTC

That's true but emlightened's claim all but proves it to be the case (at least for me but I have additional info).

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:47 pm UTC

Begrudgingly, I believe you. At the very least, I can see that lynching emlightened is too risky to be pushed right now.
Anyone who is lurking at present is very suspicious to me.
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

Please use he/him/his pronouns when referring to me.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby bessie » Mon Apr 04, 2016 3:32 pm UTC

Thank you Madge for joining the game, again. I’m sorry I didn’t get an opportunity to make a reads list yesterday, RL issues (My dog went from very sick to quite serious, and a construction project at my house discovered a major problem). I will have something in about 12 hours.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 04, 2016 7:44 pm UTC

@Carlington: based on the flavor of your role have you ever considered the possibility that your role pm was lying to you and you're simply a PGO, or maybe the given percentages are not the correct ones?

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Mon Apr 04, 2016 9:38 pm UTC

No, I felt as though that would fall under "the mod will not deliberately mislead".
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

Please use he/him/his pronouns when referring to me.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby bessie » Tue Apr 05, 2016 4:01 am UTC

I am at work at deadline, so my last opportunity to post will be Wednesday morning at about 8:00 am PDT. I like to compose complete reads lists because when I’m writing about one player, I’m thinking about everyone, so my reads may shift and become clearer in my mind over the course of my writing. I don’t know if I will have the opportunity to complete my reads tonight, so I’m going to post content as I write it with minimal review.

Updated reads.

Madge/emlightened - Continuing from my last post on emlightened. I made a post outlining my suspicions, implying that I think she may be cult, and she posts this:
emlightened wrote:@bessie: I think, based on that I have to find a dagger, I become a SK.

Madge tries to clear this up by stating that:
1. She is looking for a dagger but if she finds it she becomes an assassin, not a serial killer.
2. There’s someone specific she wants dead (Rand al’Thor) but she doesn’t need to be the one to kill them.
3. She wins if she has the dagger and Rand is dead, whether or not she’s alive or dead.
4. If she lives and Rand is dead or she has the dagger, she wins.
5. If she gets the dagger she gets a new PM.
6. The original role PM had no win condition.
7. She is a namecop.
8. She can investigate the dead.

Madge, this is so suspicious I don’t even know where to start. You have so many apparent ways to win I don’t know how you can lose. Do you become a pro town assassin? You aren't pro town if you want a member of town dead. I do not believe you are nonantitown (meaning I don’t believe you can win with town). I think there’s a small possibility you can win with mafia, but I think it is more likely you are a serial killer (and Sabrar had some kind of protection) or you are the cult leader (and Sabrar has protection, has been culted and isn’t aware or it’s not final yet, or is culted and he knows it).

Chane – One of the scummiest players on D1. She promised on D1 to prove she was a doctor on D2. I don’t believe she is a doctor or an innocent child, and I was open about this on D1. I would have held her to her promise today. Unfortunately, she disappeared and there is no replacement available, so today she has “unofficial lynch immunity.” I can’t question her, and she won’t be responding to my accusations. But I need to include her in my analysis because my reads on other players depend on my read of her.

crucialityfactor – He either is linked with Chane, or he is allowing himself to be linked with Chane. Because of this, he is sharing her D2 “lynch immunity.” No one is even analyzing crucialityfactor, and he is lurking his way through D2 and providing almost no content (although to be fair, he’s not the only one). He posted this:
crucialityfactor wrote:Anyways, here where I stand right now with my reads.

Town
crucialityfactor
chane
sabrar (maybe cult?)

SK/Mafia
kalira
bessie
carlington

Independent
emlightened (maybe cult?)

Those aren’t reads, that’s a list. You grouped yourself, Chane, and Chane’s biggest supporter in your town group, emlightened as independent, and the rest of us in a default scum group. How about some actual updated reads?


I will try to add more reads to this list tonight.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:51 am UTC

Carlington wrote:No, I felt as though that would fall under "the mod will not deliberately mislead".

True, I forgot about that part.

Still no claim from bessie and nothing from kalira in the past 2 days. I'm tired of waiting around so I'll post my conclusions soon.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:20 am UTC

Infodump as promised, wall-of-text, you've been warned.

But first some off-topic explaining and apologies:
Spoiler:
I would like to apologize to Carlington and to anyone else who prefers Mafia to be played with less logical deductions and more reads based on other players' content. The thing is I'm bad at the latter but good with the former, I'm in a unique position to be able to do this and I play to win.

Also I would like to apologize if anyone feels I'm taking the spotlight too much and want to direct the action. In an ideal world I would be playing 2-3 fast-paced games simultaneously where we're all in the same timezone, everyone posts 5-10 times a day, no-one needs replacement and there's no Mod Madness disrupting the action. However mafiascum is blocked at work so I'm 'forced' to gratify my need for Mafia on this forum (please don't misunderstand me, I'm very happy that I found this community, it's just that the pace is a bit too slow for my taste but I completely understand that not everyone has as much free-time).
On-topic apology: I'm sincerely sorry if my actions cause Town to lose, I wouldn't do it if I didn't feel that this gives us the best chance. The trouble is that scum successfully avoided overt suspicion and I feel it's crucial that I prevent Town from accusing their own in the future and only by fully revealing the setup will I be able to prove my point.

Now on the important stuff:

Role reveal: I am Rand al’Thor, the Dragon Reborn, champion of the Light. I'm Vanilla before D3 (because I need to be trained), Innocent Child on D3, gaining Vigilante starting from N3. I have reason to believe that I have some form of hidden protection before D3 and if it's not unrecruitability then it must be Bulletproof. I seriously doubt that I could be corrupted.

Full setup speculation:
Spoiler:
Town
Snark - Cop
Diemo - Tracker
mpolo - Jailer

Chane - Doctor, Innocent Child on D2, holder of dagger needed by Padan Fain (likely Moiraine Damodred, Aes Sedai)
crucialityfactor - Watcher (likely al'Lan Mandragoran, Chane's Warder)
Carlington - mish-mash depending on rng (which BTW I don't like to have in Mafia)

Sabrar - main protagonist, Innocent Child, Vigilante, special snowflake, really does not want to die N2 like in both of the two previous games he was Town.

Independent
Madge - Assassin for me (Padan Fain)

Scum (by process of elimination)
bessie + kalira (obviously no idea about their role)
Suggested strategy: we lynch bessie or kalira today, Madge decides if she wants to get the dagger, crucialityfactor watches Chane to see if she did, we lynch the other scum tomorrow. Game should be over at that point, unless Madge turns into anti-town by getting the dagger. In that case either I will kill her N3 or you can lynch her D4. However I don't think Madge's actual win-condition will change, it's more likely that she gets a standard NK to better help her quest of killing me.

Possibilities:
1.a) Madge doesn't get the dagger, scum doesn't target me or I'm really Bulletproof -> Town wins, Madge loses
1.b) Madge doesn't get the dagger, scum somehow kills me -> Town + Madge wins
2.a) Madge gets the dagger, does not change win-condition (doesn't matter if I live or die) -> Town + Madge wins
2.b) Madge gets the dagger, becomes SK (or other anti-town role but isn't really anything else) -> Town wins, Madge loses eventually

@Madge: I think your best shot at winning is to go along with this plan and get the dagger, trusting my intuition that I can't be killed N2 and that your win-con won't change.

Reasons:
1. I'm an Innocent Child, therefore I was more likely to believe Chane about her claim. With emlightened's reveal it makes complete sense to have 2 of these roles in the game: Chane reveals herself D2 so N2 Padan Fain gets the dagger, I reveal myself D3 and N3 he kills me. Therefore Chane is Town and by extension crucialityfactor as well. BTW I think Madge is either lying about the prison part or it might be a hidden mechanic that would have happened either way, regardless of any N1 actions.

2. All of the basic townie roles have been covered (as has been also mentioned by bessie here). bessie and kalira have not counterclaimed anyone and did not provide an alternative why we had 2 deaths N1 so I'm forced to accept Carlington's claim about his role as having 2 scum + SK + Assassin + Vigilante in the game is not something jimbob would do in my opinion after Dollhouse. (If there's 2 deaths N2 then we're screwed either way). Carlington's ability is unlikely to be given to scum, as having it potentially kill an investigative role seems very unfair.
Therefore Carlington is not scum (could possibly be Independent Survivor but that's irrelevant for the current analysis).

3. By process of elimination bessie and kalira are our 2 scum.

I will answer (almost) any question you have.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Apr 05, 2016 8:53 am UTC

Before I forget (flips a coin):

Vote: bessie

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:25 pm UTC

No worries on the apology front, this is pretty much exactly what I want from a game of mafia - it's logical deduction but I also need to work out whether to believe you.
If what you say doesn't match what I know, it's going to ruin you in my eyes.


Fortunately for you, Sabrar, it does match. I had already narrowed down Rand to either you or bessie. If there's a counterclaim, now's the time.

Here's what I propose we do:
Assume Sabrar's claim is true. In either case, we'll know in the morning (although, Sabrar, it'd be handy if you could clarify how the Innocent Child mechanic works in your case).
Assuming Sabrar is right about Chane, we can use this to cross-confirm Chane and crucialityfactor, with Madge's help. Madge: either try to steal the dagger or don't, but don't tell us which it is. crucialityfactor, watch Chane tonight and tell us whether Madge took the dagger. In the morning...actually, can we do this?
Mods, please provide a ruling on whether we can do the following:
Madge and crucialityfactor, in the morning post your night actions and results in spoilers. Don't read each other's spoilers until both have been posted. After that, we open both spoilers and see if the results make sense.
This is really just here to say that the bit I need a ruling on is finished. Thanks.
If that idea is a no-go (I feel like it's tenuous at best) then crucialityfactor should claim first, so that if Madge tries to frame him then Chane or her replacement can play referee by telling us if they're aware of the dagger having been taken.
This can confirm cf and/or Chane.
That leaves me, bessie, and kalira. For obvious reasons, I'll not be voting for myself, and if bessie is my other possibility for Rand I'd rather leave her alive until we can confirm Sabrar's claim.
Therefore, I think that we should lynch kalira today. I won't vote right away in case there's anything I've missed or anyone wants to claim something that would have a massive impact on this plan.
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:37 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:Mods, please provide a ruling on whether we can do the following:
Madge and crucialityfactor, in the morning post your night actions and results in spoilers. Don't read each other's spoilers until both have been posted. After that, we open both spoilers and see if the results make sense.
This is really just here to say that the bit I need a ruling on is finished. Thanks.
You are welcome to post anything you want in thread in spoilers (within the game and forum rules obviously). However, players are allowed to read the contents of them.
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:40 pm UTC

Carlington wrote: (although, Sabrar, it'd be handy if you could clarify how the Innocent Child mechanic works in your case).

Extremely simple, I pm the mod stating that I want to use my ability and he will post in thread (probably with some nice flavor) telling everyone that my role is indeed Rand.
I'm obviously okay with lynching kalira today as well, my only problem with your detailed plan is that it doesn't take into account the NK. If you want I could give a breakdown on what would happen in either case but I feel it's not relevant at this point and I've already 'helped' scum too much.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:47 pm UTC

Thanks for the quick response, jimbob and Sabrar both! Naturally this relies on the honour system, but I feel like there's enough checks and balances in play for that to be okay. Unless cf and Madge are a scum team. But if they've managed that then nothing I say matters because I will have been entirely hoodwinked.

For the same reason, Sabrar, I think that the NK shouldn't have too much of an effect. If someone is NK'd tonight before posting a result, the others should still be able to provide the information. There's redundancy in every interaction except for Madge stealing the dagger - and I doubt Madge will be NK'd as this gives town a free night and narrows the pool of potential scum. I think that probably the best kill target is me, but that means scum rolling the die on the PGO part of my power.

Regardless of what happens, one of my first actions tomorrow will probably be to fully claim, if I live through the night.
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Madge » Tue Apr 05, 2016 2:15 pm UTC

I am happy to go for the dagger tonight, but I have to admit I'm a bit scared of becoming an SK. I mean, if I get the dagger and it even gets me a kill ability - and come on, it's a DAGGER, I basically have to kill Rand because it's insta win? I think that's bad for town which means I won't live to do it which means I should avoid the dagger?

I think my win is not super easy because if I die before I get things going I lose, and that's pretty easy to have happen. I also think I've got a decent chance of being lynched or vigged because of my claim, which will make me lose unless I get the dagger and scum takes pity on me....
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Carlington » Tue Apr 05, 2016 2:23 pm UTC

Then don't steal it. It's not the stealing that matters, but the knowing if you're stealing.
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

Please use he/him/his pronouns when referring to me.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Apr 05, 2016 2:26 pm UTC

@Madge: according to the plan we lynch the two scum D2 and D3 and I can't Vig you before N3 either so you'll definitely have the chance to use it should it become necessary. Most probable outcome is that we kill each other N3 and that should let us both win. Basically only way you lose is if scum kills you N2 but then you would have lost anyway.

Ninja'd by Carlington: or that. It's up to you.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D2)

Postby crucialityfactor » Tue Apr 05, 2016 3:33 pm UTC

Hmm, I think I'd like to hear Bessie and Kalira's counter to this plan just for my own comfort. It certainly sticks out right now as the most obvious path to town victory, assuming I'm not being taken for a ride at the moment. With what's been posted, I just don't see how both of them can fit into Town. To me it's coming down to carlington & sabrar vs. kalira & bessie. With it really leaning in the former's favor at the moment.


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