Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Game Over

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby dimochka » Mon May 23, 2016 3:45 pm UTC

I think it would be a good idea for emlightened and jimbob to reveal results next, and then go in order (or I guess I don't really care for an order as long as we get both of them first).
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon May 23, 2016 4:04 pm UTC

Since mikemk has already made a claim, I'm willing to follow the reverse of Diemo's list then.

I got Town on Snark.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby emlightened » Mon May 23, 2016 4:17 pm UTC

I can't even remember if concensus was on jimbob investigating me or investigating Snark.

Don't suppose it matters now.

Scum on jimbob.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon May 23, 2016 4:19 pm UTC

I don't think any 100% consensus was reached, so I just went with the one that most people suggested later on.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby dimochka » Mon May 23, 2016 5:08 pm UTC

Esthr - this probably won't make a big difference, but if you don't mind I'd appreciate you claiming before me. I'm really hoping for a certain result :mrgreen:

If within 6 hours of adnap's claim Esthr does not claim (or simply prefers not to do it before me), I'll claim my result.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Mikemk » Mon May 23, 2016 6:32 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Since mikemk has already made a claim, I'm willing to follow the reverse of Diemo's list then.

I got Town on Snark.

My spreadsheet now shows that you are either Insane or scum.

Possibilities:
Jimbob is scum, em maybe
jimbob is insane, em is scum, snark is scum.

If jimbob is scum, I am naive because I got a town result on jimbob. If he's insane, I'm naive because I got town on snark. This gives a 67% chance that I'm naive, and 33% that I'm lying scum. Either way, I'm not a useful cop.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Esthr » Mon May 23, 2016 6:46 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Esthr - this probably won't make a big difference, but if you don't mind I'd appreciate you claiming before me. I'm really hoping for a certain result :mrgreen:

If within 6 hours of adnap's claim Esthr does not claim (or simply prefers not to do it before me), I'll claim my result.

I don't mind claiming before you, but my impression is that we are following the player list, starting with Snark, now that emlightened and jimbob have claimed.

Snark
Madge
Carlington
Esthr (me)
Dimochka
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon May 23, 2016 6:57 pm UTC

Not sure about your possibilities, mikemk, but I can confirm that your beliefs match mine. I'm refraining from doing any analysis in thread until all have claimed, to make scum work harder in their claims.

Regarding claim order, I don't think it matters too much, but I think Snark should go next, given I claim that he is scum, based on my results.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby dimochka » Mon May 23, 2016 7:05 pm UTC

Esthr wrote:I don't mind claiming before you, but my impression is that we are following the player list, starting with Snark, now that emlightened and jimbob have claimed.

Snark
Madge
Carlington
Esthr (me)
Dimochka
adnapemit

Perfectly fine with that order as well.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Mikemk » Mon May 23, 2016 7:10 pm UTC

If emlightened is scum, then jimbob is town, confirming snark is scum and i'm town. So, I suggest we focus investigations on emlightened, as that'll tell us the loyalties of 4 players. So, everyone investigate emlightened tonight.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby emlightened » Mon May 23, 2016 7:22 pm UTC

Why on earth would it confirm you to be town?
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Mikemk » Mon May 23, 2016 7:24 pm UTC

emlightened wrote:Why on earth would it confirm you to be town?

Because it would confirm jimbob insane, and jimbob already claimed scum on me.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby emlightened » Mon May 23, 2016 7:29 pm UTC

*facepalm*

That assumes, of course, that we'll all be able to tell if I'm town/scum from investigating me; it's not guaranteed.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Mikemk » Mon May 23, 2016 7:42 pm UTC

emlightened wrote:*facepalm*

That assumes, of course, that we'll all be able to tell if I'm town/scum from investigating me; it's not guaranteed.

Right now, I think it's the best chance we have

Anyone concur?
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Esthr » Mon May 23, 2016 7:44 pm UTC

Don't know how useful this is, but
Snark wrote:...

It is your turn to claim.


Mikemk wrote:
emlightened wrote:*facepalm*

That assumes, of course, that we'll all be able to tell if I'm town/scum from investigating me; it's not guaranteed.

Right now, I think it's the best chance we have

Anyone concur?

There is no reason whatsoever to draw any conclusions at this point.

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Mikemk » Mon May 23, 2016 7:45 pm UTC

Esthr wrote:Don't know how useful this is, but
Snark wrote:...

It is your turn to claim.


Mikemk wrote:
emlightened wrote:*facepalm*

That assumes, of course, that we'll all be able to tell if I'm town/scum from investigating me; it's not guaranteed.

Right now, I think it's the best chance we have

Anyone concur?

There is no reason whatsoever to draw any conclusions at this point.

I think the fact that a serial killer is on the loose is a good reason to figure out who it is as quickly as possible.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby dimochka » Mon May 23, 2016 7:51 pm UTC

Mikemk wrote:If emlightened is scum, then jimbob is town, confirming snark is scum and i'm town. So, I suggest we focus investigations on emlightened, as that'll tell us the loyalties of 4 players. So, everyone investigate emlightened tonight.

No, I disagree with this. I'll explain why later today.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby emlightened » Mon May 23, 2016 7:56 pm UTC

Mikemk wrote:I think the fact that a serial killer is on the loose is a good reason to figure out who it is as quickly as possible.

...

You do know that the setup has nine cops, and three mafia with one shared nightkill, right?
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon May 23, 2016 7:58 pm UTC

I think it was a figure of speech emlightened. Let's wait until everybody's claimed before trying to decide on our investigations tonight.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Snark » Tue May 24, 2016 1:10 am UTC

Town on Carlington.

I'm not talking possibilities til everyone has claimed, and I suggest no one else does either.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Mikemk » Tue May 24, 2016 3:59 am UTC

BTW, my spreadsheet was made with the assumption that there's only one scum, and the formulas are too messy to fix it, so...

Ignore all my previous logic, and future logic until further notice.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Madge » Tue May 24, 2016 6:20 am UTC

Scum on esthr.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Carlington » Tue May 24, 2016 11:09 am UTC

I guess I'm up?
I got scum on dimochka.

I feel iffy about it, but I can see the rationale behind not discussing further until everyone has claimed.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Esthr » Tue May 24, 2016 12:42 pm UTC

I got a result of Town on adnapemit.

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby dimochka » Tue May 24, 2016 5:02 pm UTC

I have lots of conclusions I can draw from what I learned, but I'll hold off until Adnapemit claims results. I'm sure some of what I said earlier today will make sense regardless.

I got town on emlightened
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Madge » Tue May 24, 2016 10:55 pm UTC

yep.... I've been updating my chart and it looks like things are going to get interesting today.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby adnapemit » Wed May 25, 2016 1:22 am UTC

Town on Diemo.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby dimochka » Wed May 25, 2016 3:22 am UTC

Ok so I don't have a hugely complex analysis, and it's possible that I missed some points, but I'm pretty confident in the below:

1. I got a result of scum on sabrar whom we know to be town, so I'm either paranoid or insane
2. I got a result of scum on esthr which didn't answer anything for my cop type, but then I got town on emlightened. So from my point of view emlightened is scum and esthr is town, and i'm an insane cop.
3. based on the above, esthr is either naive or sane cop
4. we knew based on diemo's post that jimbob and emlightened have different alignments, so jimbob is town. also, diemo was a sane cop.
5. jimbob got scum on mikemk, scum on diemo, and town on snark. because we know that diemo is town, jimbob is an insane cop. mikemk is town, and snark is scum. Note that this means there are no more insane cops
6. mikemk got town on jimbob and snark (and madge, but that's irrelevant), so he's a naive cop

now for the stuff that's less clear, and please feel free to correct what i say
7. carlington got scum on all three of suzaku / madge / me. he can't be insane because we already accounted for two insane cops, so he is either paranoid or scum pretending to be paranoid.
8. madge got scum on all three of carlington / snark / esthr. so same as carlington, she's either paranoid or scum pretending to be paranoid.
9. adnapemit got town on all three of emlightened / sabrar / diemo. So either naive town or scum.

So we accounted for two insane cops and one sane cop. Current possibilities:
Sane - either Sabrar or Esthr.
Naive - Adnapemit or Esthr
Paranoid - (two of) Sabrar, Madge, Carlington

Option 1 - Sabrar was sane
Conclusion: Esthr is naive, adnapemit is scum, madge and carlington are paranoid

Option 2 - Esthr was sane
Conclusion: Sabrar was paranoid, adnapemit is naive, scum is one of Madge or carlington.

I have to run, but I'm sure we can get a plan of action from this.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Madge » Wed May 25, 2016 3:28 am UTC

I actually got the exact same results from the analysis.

I'm pretty sure it follows that emlightened and snark are scum, or am I missing something here? I think I went overboard in my analysis and ended up accepting results at face value, which when they could be from scum, doesn't make sense.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Madge » Wed May 25, 2016 3:29 am UTC

EBWOP

Oh you did mention that in your logic just not in the list below of everyone's possible alignments. ok, cool, I didn't screw up yay
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Mikemk » Wed May 25, 2016 3:46 am UTC

Vote: Lynch Snark
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Carlington » Wed May 25, 2016 4:15 am UTC

Mike: why Snark and not emlightened? Also, kindly unvote until there's been more than two people post analysis. There's no big rush, and I want to get home from work and sit down in front of my notebook before I commit to anything. From what I remember of my table, I also had that if emlightened is scum then so must Snark be, and jimbob must be insane. But I can't take dimochka's results as read until I've had another look at my table. However, as long as I am not as terrible at probability as I fear I might be, there's only a 14.5% chance that I'm anything but paranoid and got the results I got, and that makes me 85.5% sure there's scum in Madge and emlightened. (Obviously that only applies FMPOV because to anyone else I could be scum).
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby dimochka » Wed May 25, 2016 5:09 am UTC

Carlington wrote:...as long as I am not as terrible at probability as I fear I might be, there's only a 14.5% chance that I'm anything but paranoid and got the results I got, and that makes me 85.5% sure there's scum in Madge and emlightened

Care to walk us through your math?

Anyways, as long as people agree with my analysis (and believe that I'm not scum - because I'm not exactly sure how this will look if we were to assume that I'm scum and test to see if that's even possible), I think I know how to win the game:
Right now we're at 6/3, and of those 6 we have 4 confirmed town. In the worst case scenario, jimbob and I are useful cops (and in the best case scenario, so is esthr). So let's assume worst case scenario. Today we lynch snark (or emlightened, I don't care). Jimbob can cop Adnapemit and I will cop Madge (and Esthr will cop Carlington in case she's sane). One of us two (Jimbob/me) will likely be killed, but we'll have information on the other investigation target, which will put us at 5/2 with 4 confirmed town. We then lynch Emlightened, the other one of us two probably gets killed overnight, and town is likely left with madge/carlington/adnapemit/mike/esthr. one of madge/adnapemit will be confirm town, so just lynch the other, and then lynch carlington if the game isn't over and we win.

Let me know if you see a flaw in this logic. Obviously this is all assuming you agree with my analysis.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Mikemk » Wed May 25, 2016 7:25 am UTC

@Carlington:
I wasn't actually thinking about emlightened, my logic was that jimbob was confirmed a useful cop, I know I'm town, and jimbob claimed a different result on snark than me.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Madge » Wed May 25, 2016 7:31 am UTC

I think dimochka's right on the money. I think the constellation of dim's results with the others makes it unlikely that dim is scum.

If dim is scum and lynching snark is a mislynch, we then know dim is scum and his cop results can be ignored and we can take the logic from there where it goes.

If dim is scum and painting snark as scum is a strategy to give dim and other-scum some credibility then we're potentially in trouble, though hopefully future results will get us out of the mess.

I'd want the suspected naive/paranoid cops to all target different people to get a good spread, should that be necessary; then again the paranoid ones each targeting one of the suspected "useful" cops might be helpful as the death will confirm that we are probably paranoid.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed May 25, 2016 7:33 am UTC

My analysis agrees with your's dimochka. However, it relies on me being Town, which I think only you and I can know for sure. I know that you are Town based on the same sort of logic that you have posted. I also know Esthr, Mikemk and Carlington to be Town and Snark and emlightened to be Scum. I will post my full logic later today when I have time.

The only way our conclusions can be wrong is if we are both Scum, since if one of us is Town, they can confirm the other. Can anybody else prove either of us to be Town?
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Carlington » Wed May 25, 2016 8:08 am UTC

dimochka wrote:
Carlington wrote:...as long as I am not as terrible at probability as I fear I might be, there's only a 14.5% chance that I'm anything but paranoid and got the results I got, and that makes me 85.5% sure there's scum in Madge and emlightened

Care to walk us through your math?

On the subject of math, I miscounted and thought we were at MYLO today.
But, my working runs as follows:
This will get us a lower bound estimate, because it's only the probability that I'm a useful cop who by chance got the same result thrice. The real number should be even higher, since it needs to be the odds that two players are useful cops who got the same result thrice.
The odds of any given player being assigned town are 2/3, so whatever result we get, we need to multiply by 2/3 to account for the chance of being town in the first place, since that's only a given from our own point of view. Then, the problem basically simplifies to: there are three balls labelled scum and 8 labelled town in a bag. If you draw three balls without replacement, what are the odds that all three will have the same label? This is [(8×7×6)÷(11×10×9)]+[(3×2×1)÷(11×10×9)]
I realise that I made an error in my prior numbers as well: I need to account for the probability that I am either sane or insane, which means multiplying by 1/2. Also, I did this with pencil and paper last time and wolfram alpha this time. So it comes out to 11.5% chance that I could have gotten the results I did as an in/sane cop. In reality, I know I can't be insane, since I got scum on Suzaku who flipped town, so it ought to be half again or 5.75%.

If at least one player from the three of us who have only scum results so far is not in this position, then three people are effectively claiming paranoid cop. I know I'm town and thus there's more than 95% chance I'm paranoid FMPOV, which means that either somebody has ended up in this 5.75% scenario or else one of us is scum. Did that make sense? I'm writing this on the bus, away from my notes. Anyway.

If we lynch anybody today, it should be emlightened. If she flips town, jimbob is scum and then so too is dimochka by the logic those two have posted. If she flips scum, jimbob is town and so is dimochka, and Snark is scum. Either way, we get two scum and the worst case is one mislynch.
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Mikemk
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby Mikemk » Wed May 25, 2016 8:26 am UTC

Alright, since a lot of people think emlightened is the more likely scum:
Unvote
Vote: Lynch emlightened

It is rather naive of me to just go along with everyone else, but that's life.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed May 25, 2016 10:29 am UTC

Just a quick update that I have a working proof that dimochka and I cannot be both scum, i.e. we are both town and therefore emlightened and Snark are scum together with one of adnapemit or Madge.

I will provide full logic breakdown later today for this case as well. Those with a spreadsheet should be able to work it out themselves by assuming that we are both scum and working through until a logical contradiction occurs.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 4

Postby adnapemit » Wed May 25, 2016 12:46 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Those with a spreadsheet should be able to work it out themselves by assuming that we are both scum and working through until a logical contradiction occurs.

I tried it. This is indeed true. They can't both be scum.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:My analysis agrees with your's dimochka. However, it relies on me being Town, which I think only you and I can know for sure. I know that you are Town based on the same sort of logic that you have posted.
Which logic? Even if I assume you are town, I can't work out how this proves dimochka isn't scum.
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