Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Game Over

[Mikemk]

@mikemk, I don't follow your reasoning still. Regardless, please confirm who you are going to investigate tonight.

What don't you understand?

Already sent it in, also:

Vote: No lynch

[Sabrar]

Forum is constantly glitching for me so posting now in case I won't have another chance.
Gut-feelings (probably totally wrong):
Town: Snark, Madge, Carlington, adnapemit, maybe Mikemk
Scum: jimbobmacdoodle, maybe Esthr

[jimbobmacdoodle]

What don't you understand?

Mostly the fact that others told you who to investigate, plus others explicitly stated who they were investigating, so you should have seen who they were voting for, and yet you still submitted the wrong target. That and the fact that you didn't admit to making a mistake when posting your responses despite me having already claimed to have targeted you, and therefore it being impossible for us to be targeting each other. To be honest, if this weren't a dethy, I'd be voting for you.

Scum: jimbobmacdoodle, maybe Esthr

Anything in particular to back this up?

[Mikemk]

What don't you understand?

Mostly the fact that others told you who to investigate, plus others explicitly stated who they were investigating, so you should have seen who they were voting for, and yet you still submitted the wrong target.

This post was posted before I noticed the second page. (Was on my phone)
In this post, I didn't notice it specifically mentioned (I clicked the hyperlink, then forgot to finish reading the original post).
In this one, I interpreted it as Sabrar telling mpolo who Sabrar was investigating. I then looked on the list and selected the number immediately below my number (normally, on a numbered list, below means less than, 5 < 6)

That and the fact that you didn't admit to making a mistake when posting your responses despite me having already claimed to have targeted you

Um, yes I did. I specified your username. Why would I waste words saying I didn't investigate Snark when "Jimbob" looks nothing like "Snark"? (And more importantly when I didn't even know I made a mistake until the post after that)

But, to make you happy, I've now edited my post to include obvious information.

and therefore it being impossible for us to be targeting each other.

Why?

To be honest, if this weren't a dethy, I'd be voting for you.

Glad to hear that you're scum who'll murder people over tiny mistakes that don't even matter.

[dimochka]

But, to make you happy, I've now edited my post to include obvious information.

You should never edit previous posts, no matter what the reason (unless explicitly told so by the mod). That's a forum rule. I don't know whether mpolo would want you to change it back, but that's an fyi.

[Sabrar]

Scum: jimbobmacdoodle, maybe Esthr

Anything in particular to back this up?

Uneasy feeling about opening post, potentially sketchy tactics suggested later, uncharacteristically messing up claim order followed by humorous self-vote to elicit sympathy.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Thank you for your explanations both mikemk and Sabrar. Mikemk, the reason I have been pressuring you is because it's often easiest to pick out scum based on their reactions to pressure.

I understand where you are coming from Sabrar. I've definitely made a couple of mistakes, either of which could easily be seen as scummy tactics from others' point of view. FWIW, I've self-FoSsed before for making stupid mistakes, though I'll admit I can't remember in which game and therefore whether I was scum or not.

[Sabrar]

FWIW, I've self-FoSsed before for making stupid mistakes, though I'll admit I can't remember in which game and therefore whether I was scum or not.

Now that you've mentioned this I vaguely remembered seeing it before. Very quick search shows an example in Smalltown where you were scum.

[Mikemk]

Since Jimbob has gotten 2 town results, he's actually the most likely to be town. I think

[mpolo]

I am back. Currently, there are 4 votes to No Lynch (dimochka, emlightened, Diemo, Mikemk). Approximately one hour to deadline.

Mikemk: We have an xkcd-Mafia rule against editing posts within a game (see rule 3 in the first post) . I'm taking this one as an honest mistake and assuming that nothing nefarious was done, so there will be no consequences.

[Sabrar]

Since Jimbob has gotten 2 town results, he's actually the most likely to be town. I think

That is not how it works. Actual Cop investigating another Cop can receive both results with equal probability (Town if he's naive/sane or Scum if he's paranoid/insane). Same is true for investigating Scum. Individual claims don't mean anything by themselves, only when put in context with all of the other results. And I haven't even mentioned the false-claims given by scum.

On another note since our mod is back (yay) and also allowed me sharing my spreadsheet, here's the link to it:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8uE4k ... sp=sharing
I've included detailed instructions on how to update the database on any kind of result, dimochka's scum-claim on me is not yet entered so you can test it out for yourself. If done correctly 2073 possible scenarios should remain before N2.

[mpolo]

In the midst of the heated investigations of the irregulars, I received a mysterious telegram from Mr. Holmes, forcing me to abandon my post in Baker Street to visit a certain address in Dover to meet with a one-armed man at a somewhat disreputable tavern. Upon my return, I was pleased to learn that the irregulars had done a great deal of detective work. I was less pleased to discover that Tommy Smith had fallen from the second floor of the house and broken his neck. I was beginning to regret involving them in this affair at all. Surely, the boys would be able to come to some conclusions before tragedy struck again.

Sabrar has been killed. He was a Baker Street Irregular.

10 players remain, 6 to lynch (or no-lynch). Deadline.

[dimochka]

Interesting, since now we know I'm either insane or paranoid (or lying).

My result: esthr is scum.

[Esthr]

I got a Town result on Carlington.

[Mikemk]

Since Jimbob has gotten 2 town results, he's actually the most likely to be town. I think

That is not how it works. Actual Cop investigating another Cop can receive both results with equal probability (Town if he's naive/sane or Scum if he's paranoid/insane). Same is true for investigating Scum. Individual claims don't mean anything by themselves, only when put in context with all of the other results. And I haven't even mentioned the false-claims given by scum.

On another note since our mod is back (yay) and also allowed me sharing my spreadsheet, here's the link to it:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8uE4k ... sp=sharing
I've included detailed instructions on how to update the database on any kind of result, dimochka's scum-claim on me is not yet entered so you can test it out for yourself. If done correctly 2073 possible scenarios should remain before N2.

I tried clicking the link, open with > google sheets. How long should it take to load? It's taken 10 minutes so far

[Diemo]

So the order is:

Carlington
Madge
Snark
Mikemk
jimbobmacdoodle
Diemo
emlightened
adnapemit

Code: Select all

dimochka:                 Esther                         is       scum
Esthr:                    Carlinton                      is       town
Carlington:               Madge                          is      
Madge:                    Snark                          is      
Snark:                    Mikemk                         is      
Mikemk:                   jimbobmacdoodle                is      
jimbobmacdoodle:          Diemo                          is      
Diemo:                    emlightened                    is      
emlightened:              adnapemit                      is      
adnapemit:                dimochka                       is      


Well, I

[Diemo]

tried to use the excel sheet in google sheets, but the formula didn't appear to work. Probably needs excel

[Mikemk]

It also doesn't work in WPS office

[dimochka]

Since Jimbob has gotten 2 town results, he's actually the most likely to be town. I think

That is not how it works. Actual Cop investigating another Cop can receive both results with equal probability (Town if he's naive/sane or Scum if he's paranoid/insane). Same is true for investigating Scum. Individual claims don't mean anything by themselves, only when put in context with all of the other results. And I haven't even mentioned the false-claims given by scum.

On another note since our mod is back (yay) and also allowed me sharing my spreadsheet, here's the link to it:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8uE4k ... sp=sharing
I've included detailed instructions on how to update the database on any kind of result, dimochka's scum-claim on me is not yet entered so you can test it out for yourself. If done correctly 2073 possible scenarios should remain before N2.

I tried clicking the link, open with > google sheets. How long should it take to load? It's taken 10 minutes so far

How far is this updated? Once I added it to google drive, it started working fine. I'm happy to update but I'm unsure as to where we are.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Does anybody else feel like scum killed Sabrar to make the dealing with the spreadsheet confusing?

Whilst we wait for the other claims, shall we discuss who to investigate tonight? Is the spreadsheet intended to help with that? I'm phone posting so can't really investigate it. My initial thoughts are the person closest to and below you who you haven't already investigated, but I think better options might now be possible. We also need to duscuss a claim order for tomorrow.

We need to try to calibrate sanity now that we have other people's results to work around. I don't know if it's a good idea or not, but for those with two matching results, it might be beneficial to target someone who has been investigated by someone with two different results. More thoughts on this tomorrow probably, but it's getting late so I can't think through all the implications now.

[dimochka]

I'm actually thinking maybe investigating someone with the same alignment will help us weed out the naive and paranoid people... though of course going the other way around will weed out the ones who are not. Jimbob is probably more right...

[Snark]

Does anybody else feel like scum killed Sabrar to make the dealing with the spreadsheet confusing?

Not til you said that. I don't care for the format at all and can't understand it. I've got my own spreadsheet and will share thoughts on future investigate targets and claim orders once today's claims are over.

[Mikemk]

Does claim order really matter?

Also:

It's your turn

[Snark]

If you don't think claim order matters, you're welcome to claim first each day. Limiting scum info before they have to choose a false claim is good for us.

[Carlington]

I got a scum result on Madge.

I'm interested in the discussio about who to investigate next, but I'm not really understanding the talk of investigating people who are co-aligned or counter-aligned for calibration. How does it work?

[Mikemk]

Your turn

[Madge]

Scum on Snark

I'm feeling mighty paranoid.

your turn

[Mikemk]

Your turn

[Snark]

Scum on Snark

I'm feeling mighty paranoid.

You could still be sane (not from my POV obviously) or insane. Unless I'm missing something.

Also your attempt to quote me for a notification didn't actually work. So I'm going to give up quoting people to try to ping them. They should be checking the thread anyways.

Town on Mike

Mike's turn

[Madge]

Nah just getting two scum results made me feel paranoid is all, we all know that I could be anything except naive at the moment.

I got a notification from you quoting me just now FWIW. I get topic reply notifications in my email inbox though so I'm fairly up to date in general.

[Mikemk]

Town on snark

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Scum on Diemo. I'm beginning to feel a little paranoid myself. Though I could just be sat in the middle of scum or town...

Carlington, we need to be able to distinguish between our sane/insane cops and our naive/paranoid ones, in order to get meaningful information. People with two different results are guaranteed to be sane or insane (or scum), and it means the two investigated are on different teams. People with two of the same results could still be one of three sanities (plus scum). We can guarantee finding out this information if they now target two people of different alignments. If they get the same result on them, they are guaranteed to be naive, paranoid or scum (unless they chose their targets based on scum results...).

Need to think this through further. I'm going to look at spreadsheets and possibilities myself tonight.

[Carlington]

Oh! That makes sense. I was reading it as "if you got two of the same results, you should target someone who got two different results".

So, I should target the two people who have been targeted by somebody who got two different results, to work out whether I'm paranoid. Is that right?

[jimbobmacdoodle]

That's the theory, although I want to voice caution that the results could be faked scum results. We should wait until all claims are in before deciding on a strategy.

[Carlington]

As I understand it, there's also another confounding factor in that somebody's N1 result will almost certainly have been for a player that they didn't target, as somebody must have unknowingly been the deputy. I definitely agree that we should wait for all results to be reported before making too many details of strategy for N3 concrete for individual players.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Based on mpolo's description of the updated role, I don't think that's an issue. To paraphrase what he said in this post here: say I'm the deputy and targeted you Night 1, and that Suzaku was an insane cop (who targeted somebody else), my result will be an insane cop result on you. So, essentially, we can assume that Suzaku was the deputy, and ignore him.

[Carlington]

Ah, I thought we were still doing the other thing, so that in your example you'd target me but get an insane cop result on whoever Suzaku targeted. I can see what's happening now though.

[adnapemit]

tried to use the excel sheet in google sheets, but the formula didn't appear to work. Probably needs excel

How far is this updated? Once I added it to google drive, it started working fine. I'm happy to update but I'm unsure as to where we are.

I downloaded it into excel but couldn't get the formula to work
I then tried google sheets but the formula is still giving me (different) errors.

[Snark]

Diemo's turn.

[Mikemk]

Diemo, it's your turn

...