Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

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Madge
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:15 pm UTC

I thought part of this plan was being able to confirm one of the cops with a death? Can't we lynch you, then me? That was the original plan, wasn't it?

As it stands now FMPOV I am very suspicious of having two living cops, since if one of you is dead they can confirm the other.

I'm beginning to regret lynching moody, a tracking result could exonerate or incriminate pretty much anyone here.

I agree we're likely to only have one scum left since I don't think 2 scum - 2 town - 1 indie makes sense, but it is possible AFAIK (dim + sabrar being the last two scum)
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:16 pm UTC

I got town on dimochka. Which would suggest either Madge or Sabrar are scum.

Since flicky is now dead, I might as well admit to my penpal ability - on even numbered nights, I could vig someone instead of copping them. I chose not to N2, because I didn't have a strong enough scum read on anyone. If I had, I'd have killed mpolo, but I chose to investigate him instead after discussion with flicky.

Mpolo, can you confirm you received a gun? I assume everyone used their abilities as planned?

Likely breakdown is now 3-1-1 or 4-1-0, with Sabrar scum in the former, or Madge scum in the latter. Based on the plan from yesterday, we should lynch Madge today (putting us at 3-1-0 if Madge is a survivor and not scum) and Sabrar tomorrow, leaving dimochka, myself and mpolo alive, all of whom I "know" the alignment of (assuming no redirectors or similar).

We might be able to lynch Sabrar today instead (allowing survivor!Madge to win), but I need to remind myself of the logic that I came up with yesterday, which I don't have time to do at work.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:35 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I've run through Sabrar's latest plan, and I think it's good. The only minor modification is that for cases 1a and 2a, we should lynch Madge before you/dimochka, as that guarantees town majority D5. Otherwise survivor!Madge could decide to side with scum and block a lynch.

This was your reasoning for lynching Madge first. BTW how does your penpal ability correlate to your claim that it was better for emlightened to protect someone else? I'm just not seeing it.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:46 pm UTC

My non-protection request was not related to my pen pal ability. Sorry if it was taken otherwise.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 05, 2016 2:05 pm UTC

@mpolo: please claim.

mpolo wrote:...

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Carlington » Tue Jul 05, 2016 2:53 pm UTC

Ah, Sabrar's right. Poor/lazy maths on my part. I've been more careful, and worked out that

Revised deadline is Tuesday, 12 July 2016 at 9:39:00 PM in my timezone (UTC+10), which is of course 11:39:00 AM UTC.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby mpolo » Tue Jul 05, 2016 2:59 pm UTC

I received a gun. No other visitations in the night.

Technically, I was not told who gave me the gun (presumably a mistake by Carlington). The gun replaces my normal night action.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby mpolo » Tue Jul 05, 2016 2:59 pm UTC

EBWOP: if used
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby dimochka » Tue Jul 05, 2016 3:04 pm UTC

@mpolo: I actually don't think you would be told who gave you the gun, but I really doubt anyone else wants to claim that that they have the power to hand out guns...
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 05, 2016 3:09 pm UTC

Vote: Madge

fmpov there is no other logical explanation. If we lynch her and game is not over I will accept my own lynch but will ask for some time to make my case on who mpolo should shoot N5. If it would help in any way I can give a couple of reasons why I can't be the last anti-town.

@dimochka: mpolo is Watcher (can target only himself) so he should know. :)

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 05, 2016 3:33 pm UTC

EBWOP: with 5 players alive, it should be 3 to hammer.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby mpolo » Tue Jul 05, 2016 4:36 pm UTC

Madge really seems to be the only thing that makes sense.

Vote: Madge
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby mpolo » Tue Jul 05, 2016 4:37 pm UTC

It was confirmed in PM that I was visited by dimochka
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jul 05, 2016 4:53 pm UTC

Ok, assuming we have at most one indie and one scum (treating an indie who cannot win with Town as scum):

1) Madge is survivor (or other indie who can win with town).
Likeliest situation is Sabrar is scum, as I got town on mpolo and dimochka and cop!Sabrar got town on me. Lynch Sabrar to win.

2) Madge is scum.
Lynch Madge to win. If there is an indie still alive, it must be Sabrar, as both he and I claim that indies come up as non-town.

3) Madge is Town.
Not going to happen as she claimed survivor.

By the above, if we lynch both Madge and Sabrar Town should win. Does it matter on the order?

If Sabrar is scum, lynch him first we win and so does Madge.
If Madge is scum, lynch Sabrar first puts us at 3-1-0 tomorrow. Town still have majority, so then lynch Madge and Town win.
If we lynch the other way around, the situation is the same, except Madge doesn't win if Sabrar is scum.

It looks like lynching either is fine from town point of view, so do we feel mean to Madge? FWIW, I don't know why I thought we needed to lynch Madge today to guarantee Town majority tomorrow.

The other possible cases: mpolo is scum means I got an invalid result N2. Scum!Dimochka means I got an invalid result N3. Scum!me means Sabrar got an invalid result N2. Any of those could be possible, but I think unlikely.

If we lynch Sabrar and Madge over the next two days and scum still remain: if mpolo is scum, he kills someone N5 (or two people if allowed), leaving the sole-Town unable to kill him. If dimochka is scum, he likely booby trapped mpolo's gun. Mpolo then dies if he tries to shoot someone, and so town (me) are unable to lynch anyone. If mpolo doesn't shoot someone, Town can only win if scum fails to kill someone. If I am scum, mpolo can shoot me. If that fails to kill me, or if mpolo chooses nor to, I kill a townie overnight, so town loses.

To sum up, town probably loses if we proceed with the current plan and either mpolo or dimochka are scum, but not if I am scum. Of course, I know I'm not, and I think my results are probably accurate, so I'm happy with lynching our two likely suspects.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 05, 2016 5:04 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:FWIW, I don't know why I thought we needed to lynch Madge today to guarantee Town majority tomorrow.

Because based on the info we had yesterday dimochka could have been the last scum and if you lynch me first then the remaining setup is 2-1-1 which means Town could still lose.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby dimochka » Tue Jul 05, 2016 5:27 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@dimochka: mpolo is Watcher (can target only himself) so he should know. :)

RIGHT good point.

I think a madge lynch is most logical, but I'm trying to make sense of jimbob's argument first. Will probably vote later today. If Sabrar is scum somehow, I'll be very surprised (especially because I gave him a gun). But if the game is not over after today, we lynch him next (and he won't have a chance to use the gun because flicky just died).
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 05, 2016 5:39 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:If dimochka is scum, he likely booby trapped mpolo's gun.

He couldn't have rigged the gun as his pen pal was lynched. Of course this assumes that he didn't lie about his ability.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Tue Jul 05, 2016 10:34 pm UTC

I thought part of this plan was being able to confirm one of the cops with a death? Can't we lynch you, then me? That was the original plan, wasn't it?

As it stands now FMPOV I am very suspicious of having two living cops, since if one of you is dead they can confirm the other, but if you're both alive one of you seems likely scum (why you guys seem to trust each other is beyond me!).

I'm beginning to regret lynching moody, a tracking result could exonerate or incriminate pretty much anyone here.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby mpolo » Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:38 am UTC

Unvote

To prevent funny business. Although, no funny business happening up to now speaks pretty strongly for Madge being scum.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby mpolo » Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:39 am UTC

That is, scum!Sabrar would have hammered, I presume, as would scum!dimochka.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:51 am UTC

@Madge: did you just copy-paste your earlier post?

@mpolo: scum!me couldn't have hammered as I'm already voting for Madge. scum!dimochka also wouldn't hammer as there is no need to draw attention to himself with the current plan guaranteeing his win.

@all: I would really appreciate if we could agree on the lynch soon and not drag this out over the weekend. I think there is no new information to be considered and frankly this has already been too long.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Wed Jul 06, 2016 7:11 am UTC

Sorry, yeah, I thought it didn't send when I woke up this morning because I saw it still open in my browser when I woke up. Clearly it did post, that was a bit silly of me!

Anyway I still haven't done this, so sorry penpal of mine, I think you are the most likely to be scum:

Vote: Sabrar
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jul 06, 2016 7:36 am UTC

Reasonable point about dimochka not being able to rig the gun. We can't rule it out still of course - there is a possibility that a) I'm not sane, and b) he lied.

I plan on voting you, Sabrar, as I like to be generous and let the survivor win, if possible, but I don't want to put you at L-1 just yet. Your flip would be more useful than survivor!Madge's flip. Please put forward any argument you have for who mpolo should shoot, and I will then vote for you.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Wed Jul 06, 2016 7:44 am UTC

Myself I find it suspicious that Sabrar originally offered to be lynched before me and now wants me lynched first. There's nothing to lose whether I'm town or scum by lynching Sabrar first, but scum!Sabrar loses if they get lynched first.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jul 06, 2016 7:57 am UTC

1. I don't think I ever specifically offered myself up for lynch before you (it would be crazy as I know I'm Town) but I could be mistaken, please point it out to me.
2. I almost completely don't care. It would be great if I could be alive once for Town-win and lynching you before me only matters if one of our 3 confirmed townies is scum (~0.1%).

@jimbob: am in the process of writing everything out, will post something soonish. Incidentally I think I can prove that I couldn't have been part of the original scum-team but I might still have been recruited N1 so it doesn't really matter.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:06 am UTC

Here's where I must have got the idea from:

Case 1.a: scum kills emlightened or mpolo, flicky is dead (3-1-1 or 4-1). Your investigation result tells us whether dimochka is Town, if he is lynch me and Madge, if he isn't lynch dimochka.


That said, all your other posts seem to say lynch me then shoot you during the following night (if flicky's death doesn't cause a night) so I don't know. I guess I must have assumed =/
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:09 am UTC

Possibly last contribution for the game, (likely to use pen pal a lot, so abbreviate it to pp).

What needs to happen for one of confirmed townies to be scum?

mpolo: either has GF without pp protection or has Redirection and correctly guessed that jimbob would target him N2. Could have easily guessed moody's and dimochka's actions so those do not count (although he could not have counted on moody giving himself away). Extremely unlikely.

dimochka: either has GF without pp protection or has Redirection besides gunsmith (both with pp already dead). Gunsmith should never be given to scum-faction (unless stipulated that only can provide gun to non-scum but that seems silly). Only way he's anti-town if he's some weird SK whose killing power is relegated to others via guns (obviously lied about pp ability). Would also need some protection from his own guns to be the case. Also extremely unlikely.

jimbob: third GF (making me totally useless) or has Redirection and correctly guessed that I'm the Cop and would investigate him (both of which are reasonable assumptions). Claimed totally weird role (Cop + alternate Vig + protection/detection/Doctor-interfering ability) to pp assuming flicky wasn't indie (also reasonable) D2. Also has non-lethal targeting ability (again Redirection fits the bill). Still very unlikely but could theoretically be possible.

Conclusion: if it comes to N5 mpolo should shoot jimbob.

@mpolo, @dimochka: if you lynch me first you simply have to lynch Madge next, no matter what she says. She will probably continue to argue after my flip that 2 Cops don't make sense, however she might still have Bulletproof so you can't count on mpolo being able to shoot her. Meanwhile lynching her and shooting jimbob offers much better chance.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:23 am UTC

Don't forget that there's the possibility that I'm not sane, (in which case probably naive), which could be possible for mpolo. N1-recruit!mpolo may also have been able to keep his abilities, so he'd know that I targeted him. Or mpolo has redirector, and guessed me, which is not an unreasonable assumption, given I'd made clear that I had a useful ability at the end of D2.

I don't have time to complete the logic, but I think there might be an argument for No Lynch tomorrow, instead of lynching Madge, but I'm not sure yet. It's probably still safer to lynch Madge, and take the risk that dimochka or mpolo are scum.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:25 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Don't forget that there's the possibility that I'm not sane, (in which case probably naive), which could be possible for mpolo. N1-recruit!mpolo may also have been able to keep his abilities, so he'd know that I targeted him. Or mpolo has redirector, and guessed me, which is not an unreasonable assumption, given I'd made clear that I had a useful ability at the end of D2.
FTFM. I have no idea what I was saying with that struck-through statement. Also N1-recruit!dimochka similarly may have kept their abilities, but I agree with Sabrar that he almost certainly wasn't scum D1.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jul 06, 2016 9:52 am UTC

Please for the love of God don't NL tomorrow! NL only makes sense if none of the final four are cleared as Town and therefore whoever dies reduces the ambiguity. Otherwise scum will definitely kill someone already confirmed and you gain nothing at all.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jul 06, 2016 9:57 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Please for the love of God don't NL tomorrow! NL only makes sense if none of the final four are cleared as Town and therefore whoever dies reduces the ambiguity. Otherwise scum will definitely kill someone already confirmed and you gain nothing at all.

Not true. Someone gets a gun, and I get a cop result, which I could use to calibrate my sanity (i.e. I target Madge, and if I don't get non-town, something suspicious is going on - either I'm naive or someone redirected me). I'm not saying it's a GOOD idea though. It's just an option, and I'm trying to see how it affects the cases where one of mpolo or dimochka is scum (versus me or Madge).
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jul 06, 2016 10:57 am UTC

town!mpolo should not fire his gun after NL with 4 players as if he doesn't hit scum he might lose the whole game for Town. dimochka schould never give gun to Madge, therefore only possibility would be if he gave gun to you. But then if scum kills you there won't be any new information available.
OTOH in case you're the last scum NL will actually win you the game because you can kill mpolo before he shoots you.
So if you continue to suggest anti-Town strategies I will have to campaign harder for us to lynch Madge today, as fmpov Survivor!Madge can only win with scum so I have no more reason to feel sympathy for her.
Therefore I will offer 2 things up as food-for-thought:
- I claimed my full ability before moody revealed his pp addition and they match exactly. Therefore if I false-claimed Cop I would have had to be incredibly lucky to guess that before there was any indication of such an extra ability.
- if I'm originally scum (or was recruited N1) then why didn't I use my gun N2? I think killing you N2 would have been easily justifiable.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jul 06, 2016 11:30 am UTC

Saying I suggested an anti-Town strategy is rather blowing up out of proportion my statement that I think there could be an argument made for No Lynch. I have not advocated such as the best way forward - in fact in the same paragraph I explicitly say that it is probably safer not to, and I think it's clear that I hadn't come to a final conclusion.

I think killing me N2 would have brought you into the spotlight as a suspicious player, given my subsequent flip (and you would have probably known that I would flip Town). Also, my claim for emlightened not to protect me could easily be interpreted that I have some form of protection. Plus scum!you perhaps had some sort of other ability, such as a redirector ability. Claiming the PP ability is a bit of a null tell to me - just because it happens to match what somebody said later doesn't guarantee that you didn't just happen to get lucky. That said, you explicitly saying that you get non-town for independents does count in your favour from my point of view, since that wouldn't necessarily be something people would necessarily claim, yet it matches up with my ability.

To be clear, I think Madge is more likely scum than you, and that you are more likely scum than either dimochka or mpolo (for the record, I think mpolo is more likely than dimochka, but not by much).
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jul 06, 2016 11:50 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Saying I suggested an anti-Town strategy is rather blowing up out of proportion my statement that I think there could be an argument made for No Lynch.

This is absolutely true but lately I got increasingly more paranoid that you're the last scum and the setup is something crazy. I still doubt it but as more time goes by the more the thought takes root. That's also a reason why I want this to end soon as I don't want to second-guess myself again.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Also, my claim for emlightened not to protect me could easily be interpreted that I have some form of protection.

Unless I was specifically recruited N1 (and there were better targets for that in my opinion) it would have been easy for me to see that you don't have Bulletproof (and can't be PGO either).

Doesn't matter really.

@mpolo, @dimochka: please vote soon.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby dimochka » Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:12 pm UTC

Vote madge

I still think sabrar is town and I think it's safer to lynch him next day if i'm wrong. I can sympathize with the survivor and apologize in advance if i'm wrong, but I think madge being town aligned is less likely.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby mpolo » Wed Jul 06, 2016 5:21 pm UTC

vote: Madge
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jul 06, 2016 5:26 pm UTC

Should be hammer and hopefully game over.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Carlington » Thu Jul 07, 2016 1:29 am UTC

That is indeed hammer.

Madge has been lynched.
Since there's no N4, Madge's role reveal and the start of D5 will be immediate.

You are a Serial Killer. You win when town and all rival anti-town factions are defeated.

You are immune to night kills and have a night kill on odd numbered nights (N1, N3, N5...).

As long as your Pen Pal is alive, you also have a night kill on even numbered nights (N2, N4, N6...).

Your Pen Pal PM will arrive shortly.




And that's game! Town wins, as all threats have been eliminated.


Thanks everyone for playing, I had fun both as scum and as mod. Thanks as well for making the takeover of modding as smooth as possible, and for your patience with me in my first modding expedition. Congratulations to town on the win and honourable mention to Madge for playing SK well enough to be the last anti-town player and yet have at least half the townies prepared to accept that you were a Survivor.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby Madge » Thu Jul 07, 2016 1:45 am UTC

That was fun!! Thanks Carlington for picking up the game, really appreciate it.

I am still legitimately confused about two cops!?!?! can we have some role reveals for the living players???

*goes to read spoilers*
I'm writing a vampire yaoi novel, here's my accountability link: https://www.beeminder.com/mad/redandwilliam

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moody7277
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Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:06 pm UTC
Location: Extreme south Texas

Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

Postby moody7277 » Thu Jul 07, 2016 2:05 am UTC

I know that my lynch D3 was for the greater good and all, and since town won I'm cool with it, but why does it always have to be me dying for the greater good? :lol:
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


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