FAC668 - Game Over

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Sabrar
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:35 am UTC

Unvote

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:53 am UTC

@all: please let me know if my constant badgering is bothering anyone and I will stop.

Madge wrote:...

matt96 wrote:...

moody7277 wrote:...

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Fri Jul 22, 2016 1:42 pm UTC

I believe that gives us 17 hours, 18 minutes remaining. Not a lot to go on here, but let's get to work.
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby SDK » Fri Jul 22, 2016 2:29 pm UTC

Madge wrote:Also, I hate D1, I hate mpolo for asking me to play instead of replace so I have to deal with D1, don't say I didn't warn you all /s

Hi Madge! Long time no see! Are you jealous of me now?

SirGabriel wrote:We could talk about whether and under what circumstances cop and doctor should claim D2. My initial thought is that the doctor's life is more valuable than any information he might have, given that we have no watcher/tracker, and likewise the cop's life is more valuable than the information he gets from a town result or from being roleblocked, so unless a power role is in danger of being lynched, the only one who should claim is a cop who got a scum result.

I'm tempted to claim Doctor right now, but it's a little 11th hour to be generating content like that. How about you just tell me who you think is scum instead, SirGabriel? EDIT: Oh, wait, he's dead. Nevermind.

matt96 wrote:On the other hand, what if scum withhold the kill on the basis of being high enough up everyone else's townieness lists to have a reasonable expectation of being the protected player, and losing out on a single night kill isn't too much for scum to deal with, as it puts us on track for ending up at MYLO, with the exception of getting another night without a night kill or no lynching one of the days. I'm sure given enough time I could think of a couple other strategies in which it could make sense for scum to not use their night kill, but I think I've demonstrated my point that even if there is no night kill, it is only strong evidence in favor of there being a doctor rather than outright confirming it.

I'm still not used to xkcd'ers talking this way in early Day 1. What was your intention in posting this? Do you really believe this scenario is likely enough to merit consideration?

dimochka might be town.

Madge wrote:that reminds me: I think we should all post "if I was the cop I investigated NAME and got town" at the beginning of every day. Claim a fake investigation on whoever you want, but remember that if you say, get a fake town result on me, but think I'm scummy and try to get me lynched, scum will know that you're not the real cop so they'll be able to eliminate you as a cop candidate, so it might give scum too much information to be a good idea now I think about it?

Not that it matters for this game, but I'm pretty sure IIWAC is always a bad idea. There's a reason people talk about it but never do it. Cops target people they see as scummy. Being forced to claim that one of my scum reads is town either a) ties my hands, or b) tells the scum I'm not the cop when I continue to go after that player anyway. Get enough players doing that, and you're likely to see a dead Cop come Night 2 just due to process of elimination.

matt is pinging me.

adnapemit wrote:@Sabrar: Did you use Madge as an example because it was a reply in this part of your post?
Sabrar wrote:Madge and got a Town result but then if I later think that Madge is scum and voice my opinion scum will know that I can't be the Cop even if Madge is Town. So currently I don't think it's a good idea.

Any reason you picked Carlington to use for your next example?

I believe this is the first good question of the game. adnapemit gets a town cookie for moving things in the right direction.

[url]Carlington is probably town[/url].

Madge wrote:At this stage I think the bandwagon on flicky is the best we have, though I am sure at least one scummer is going to be among the people making very helpful posts because it's the best place for scum to hide.

This quote bothers me a lot. IGMEOY, Madge.

Oh, hi Sabrar! I like you.

Oh, flicky. Why you gotta do this to me?

matt is probably town after all. This is how you do a reads list, and his mindset throughout is fantastic.

adnapemit wrote:
Vote: matt96

You previously called matt neutral, and I'm pretty sure the only thing that happened since was him posting his reads list. What made you think he's scum?


And that takes us to the end of Day 1. Yuck. What a terrible final votecount. Day 2 to come when I've got more time.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Fri Jul 22, 2016 4:34 pm UTC

matt96 wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Well, damn. Why didn't Carlington claim?

Perhaps because the issues we had with his cop strategies made him uncertain about following any of them? Perhap because he would still be unlikely to survive the night and get results? (requires no RB to prevent him from getting results and is only safe if there is a doctor or scum didn't want to chance not getting off a night kill, even at the cost of letting results go through.) Also looking back at his posts, how much he may have thought that between how much he talked about cop strategies and especially in his reads list
Carlington" so I'll say neutral pending a closer look.

may have been enough for one of us to put it together, if it was not so close to the deadline. But regarding living players, like Sabrar, I would like to see the thoughts of Dimochka and Madge soon, and additionally I think that an explanation of why Carlington, Sir Gabriel, and I all dropped below Flicky and Sabrar on adnapemit's list might be a bit more useful than the changes in the list just being there.[/quote]
This post bugs me for some reason...


[quote="adnapemit wrote:Matt became the scummiest because of:
matt96 wrote:The way that it is phrased sounds more to me like scum trying to pick out the cop at the time of the posts rather than sounding like town looking back trying to find results, strongest scum read I have

I didn't read it that way, and I would also argue that a person who is scum wouldn't gain in any way by phrasing the sentence that way. That was what I thought before he was lynched and now I think that if he had died after he got a result we can how that would have aided us in finding hints at his result without him actually claiming. He also placed me as neutral on his reads only including that I agreed with two players and that I posted a reads list. This just feels slightly scummy to me and the combination of the two things put him at the scummiest.

I agree that Carlington didn't look scummy. Why does matt being wrong make him scum?

And I don't understand the second part, about you being neutral on his reads list. What about that feels scummy?



Sabrar, you decided at the end of Day 1 to leave your vote on Carlington instead of lynching flicky. Can you describe to me the thought process there? You'd previously described flicky's reads list as terrible, and I personally feel like he (now I) would have been a better lynch. In what way was Carlington scummy enough to overcome that?



Madge, I'm confused by this post. You say " I feel like getting a flip on Flicky would be useful as it would tell us if the people on the Carlington train were likely to be scum tactically voting", but then go on to say that you think flicky is town. I guess you're just thinking through it as you type, but I have trouble following the train of thought. Can you explain why you think flicky is town?

Also, Madge, I'd like to see a full T/S list from you, please. With or without reasoning, your choice.



...more to come, but I'm posting this now to give more time for you guys to reply. We're really cutting it close here.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 22, 2016 5:32 pm UTC

First off, an aside:
SDK wrote:This is how you do a reads list, and his mindset throughout is fantastic.
I've argued several times in the past that summarizing other's post history does not equal a good read list (especially in a game this small). People should already be aware of what's been said and in my mind it serves no other purpose then to generate meaningless content while trying to look townie.

Now on to your question: flicky was mainly scummy because of lack of content which (as I've learned on this forum) is not always a good indicator. Carlington had content that I actually found scummy, please check this post for my reasons. Carlington's read-list seemed like it was following his trend of not putting that much effort into analyzing things. Then there was this quote about flicky:
Carlington wrote:The only positive is the willingness to take a mislynch instead of a power role, but that's still willingness to mislynch town so I'm damning with faint praise here.
I just couldn't wrap my head around what he was trying to say here and ultimately decided that it was just something he put there trying to look though he still had some reservations about his vote knowing that flicky would flip town.

Finally on a personal level his posts before the read-list just rubbed me the wrong way as I perceived them as a bullying attempt.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Fri Jul 22, 2016 5:51 pm UTC

matt96 wrote:
adnapemit wrote: He also placed me as neutral on his reads only including that I agreed with two players and that I posted a reads list. This just feels slightly scummy to me and the combination of the two things put him at the scummiest.

Unlike the people who posted reads lists before me, I was a bit more willing to not hold what felt like defensive/passive play (reasonable given the relative lack of content up to that point, although I didn't feel like you were doing anything to alleviate that.) against you.

Maybe I'm missing something from this whole exchange, because I also don't understand your reply here either, matt. What did you understand adnapemit to be asking of you here? I feel like you're explaining something that doesn't need to be explained.

matt96 wrote:The only one I think might have been Carlington trying to hint at being a cop was the pending a closer look statement...

Why were you rereading Carlington's posts at the beginning of Day 2?

matt96 wrote:For thoughts more in line with scum hunting, I was considering writing up a post detailing my thoughts on who each other players scum buddy would most likely be if they were scum, does this seem like a good idea or will 2/3rds of it being speculation about a situation we are not in create more wine than it is worth?

If this project is going to prevent you from posting or doing a simple reread of the thread, don't bother. That kind of stuff is when you've exhausted other avenues, or (sometimes) when you're in LyLo with 2 scum left. Rereading everything and picking things apart would be a better use of your time.


moody7277 wrote:First off, voting analysis is not likely to be as fruitful as I figured. No big wagon that scum could have gotten behind that would narrow a list for us to look at. The most suspicious thing is Sabrar being the deciding vote on lynching a townie, but that is meh at best.

I agree. Quite unfortunate.

moody7277 wrote:Secondly, I'm comfortable enough in my read on Madge based on what I saw D1 and her latest that I am declaring her town as far as any further of my analyses go. If I'm wrong, well I don't usually make it to LYLO anyway, so it probably won't hurt those of us left then.

Can you explain this town read, please? I have trouble with Madge Day 1 in general - what do you look for when trying to read her Day 1?



Time Panda's throwing things out here. I kinda like this post (and the follow-up) for some reason.

... and that brings us up to my dramatic entrance.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby dimochka » Fri Jul 22, 2016 6:05 pm UTC

Madge:
Madge wrote:If flicky is town, sabrar probably is too as I don't think scum would change the wagon that late in the game like Sabrar did if it wasn't saving their own.

I'm not sure where you're getting this from.
Other than this, not much content. Against doc/cop claiming roleblocks, suggests IIWAC. Neutral in my book.

Sabrar: Day 1 I mentioned that his analysis pinged me. I did see that he mentioned that he likes to analyze every case, but this case felt to me like he already knew that it's not likely and still wanted to post it to appear townie. So I don't like it regardless. Because realistically I could also analyze the case where we have a doctor, and he tried to protect SirGabriel and was roleblocked. This doesn't actually help us. Also it just hit me again just how terrible flicky's list is... Anyways sabrar is on neutral list as well.

Carlington: Suggested some comprehensive ideas about when doctor/cop should claim. Not necessarily impressed specifically because I feel like those are pretty obvious, and I don't fully agree with them. But what's strange to me is that he didn't follow his own suggestion
Carlington wrote:I think Cop should claim:
- If it can prevent a mislynch (including their own)

Honestly I should've realized that he's likely to be the cop given how much he talks about it, but I also wasn't on around deadline.
What's more important is sadly I don't see anyone really jumping out. He did note matt and flicky as scummy, so I'll re-read them more carefully.

SirGabriel: His logic on claims on page one is flawed in my opinion. Anti IIWAC (as was I). His "Watchlist" included adnapemit, flicky, and sabrar.

Adnapemit: neutral/scum list included carlington, flicky, matt96, sabrar, sirgabriel. And I was on the edge. So everyone except madge and moody. I'd love more of an explanation because some of the "reads" seemed extremely short, such as
adnapemit wrote:matt96:Pointed out possible strategy. Quite a few posts. Neutral

D2 posts somehow resonate with me better, especially the pairings, because I started to see a similar pattern (except matt doesn't jump out to me as much)

Flicky/SDK - already said I think he's town, and i'll re-read the content SDK posted a bit later, but it's unlikely that I'll be voting for him. If I had to guess I'd label him as vanilla townie (yes I know that this is very likely based on simple probability, but still).

Matt96: Suggests a pretty unlikely scenario (scum withholding kill) ALTHOUGH I was considering the same thing, especially given the previous few games and SKs withholding kills. List included adnapemit and carlington. Promised to be back before D1 deadline but was not; explained it later. List in my opinion was good, and yes it recapped but it pointed out things that were useful in my opinion. Overall IF I believe that he misread carlington as scum, honestly he aligns as town to me. So Neutral leaning town.

Moody7277: His initial posts on D1 pinged me, especially because he's suggesting for claims that would reveal power town roles yet keep town in a situation that still doesn't guarantee a win (ie having 2 confirmed townies in a group of 6, where we're basically at MYLO). His list is based purely on who voted/didn't vote, and whether they did some analysis (not quality of analysis). This is only true if scum are trying to sneak under the radar. Votes flicky with basically 0 explanation or analysis. Also (in my opinion) 0 analysis on D2. Scummy. More than enough for me to vote on.

Vote moody


OK so I still need to do a more comprehensive re-read of both sabrar and flicky. Will get to it in a bit.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Fri Jul 22, 2016 6:11 pm UTC

I'm going to hold off on calling anyone town until we get some responses rolling in here, but I will say that my top two picks for scum are Madge and matt96, with special consideration for Sabrar (mainly because of the third vote Day 1).

I need more from moody and dimochka.

matt, you called Madge "slightly town" Day 1, after listing whatever she'd done so far. Why did you hold that read?

...

Vote: matt96

pedit: I'll get to what dimochka just posted later.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 22, 2016 6:18 pm UTC

SDK wrote:with special consideration for Sabrar (mainly because of the third vote Day 1)

I don't want to go into another rant here so please drop that reason. Funny fact, in that game it was scum bringing up the point to justify an attack on a townie.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Fri Jul 22, 2016 6:23 pm UTC

Hah, no, not that. It's not specifically because it's the third vote on the wagon, it's how the wagon went down, with yours being placed as it was. I didn't like that wagon, or the reason why you guys strung up Carlington at all. SirGabriel's vote looked far worse than yours did, but with Gabriel flipping town, your opening was convenient enough that I'm keeping an eye on you, that's all. Please continue contributing and working towards finding scum. If you're town, you're doing a great job. My paranoia just keeps reminding me that if you're scum, you're doing a great job.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 22, 2016 6:39 pm UTC

Ok, that's more fair. Sorry for being jumpy, that's just one of those triggers I can't ignore.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby matt96 » Fri Jul 22, 2016 6:50 pm UTC

I'm on mobile right now so I will have difficulty writing up a large post, but If I'm reading your posts right, the questions you have for me are as follows:
1. Why bring up the unlikely case of scum withholding the night kill?
2. Why respond to that part of adnapemit's post?
3. Why re-read Carlington's posts after he died?
My answers are basically
1. Because if we assumed no night kill = doctor confirmed, Scum could potentially use that to bait the cop into prematurely claiming or in less likely circumstances create misinformation through causing any existing doctor to think they protected someone who wasn't targeted.
2.
SDK wrote:And I don't understand the second part, about you being neutral on his reads list. What about that feels scummy?
My reaction was much the same, but I felt expanding upon the reasoning I originally gave might help with getting adnapemit to not mistakenly put us at LYLO tomorrow
3. I think you picked out the wrong quote for this one, but it was a combination of two reasons, trying to answer the question everyone seemed to have of why he didn't claim, and secondly because I felt that it was somewhere between partially and mostly my fault he got lynched, and I would like to try to not make another mistake like that in the future.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby matt96 » Fri Jul 22, 2016 7:09 pm UTC

SDK wrote:matt, you called Madge "slightly town" Day 1, after listing whatever she'd done so far. Why did you hold that read?

The short exchange regarding IIWAC before it was basically unanimously decided against felt more like concerned town than misleading scum to me, and I also liked the acknowledgment that we might not have either power role due to how most of the focus of early day 1 was power role strategies and due to it seeming more likely than not that we would be without either specific power role.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 22, 2016 7:38 pm UTC

Quick thoughts.

What I like about SDK's content:
- his questions seem legitimate
- willingness to vote early

What I don't like:
- I'm tempted to claim Doctor right now, but it's a little 11th hour to be generating content like that. How about you just tell me who you think is scum instead, SirGabriel? EDIT: Oh, wait, he's dead. Nevermind.
- [url]Carlington is probably town[/url].
Seems like an effort to prove that he didn't read the thread earlier, doesn't know who died, generally portraying himself as someone who doesn't have any additional information about the game.

What I would love to see:
- more reasons on why he finds people townie/scummy as linking to a post isn't enough.
- his analysis on dimochka as he was a player he mostly ignored earlier.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:04 pm UTC

matt96 wrote:1. Because if we assumed no night kill = doctor confirmed, Scum could potentially use that to bait the cop into prematurely claiming or in less likely circumstances create misinformation through causing any existing doctor to think they protected someone who wasn't targeted.
I don't like this answer, I think scum would never withhold a kill on the 50% chance that we have a Cop.
Nothing stands out to me in the rest.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:34 pm UTC

Current read-list:

Town
adnapemit (good content D2, though I don't like how she focuses on specific scum-pairings)
(intentional break)
dimochka (low content due to IRL, defending both flicky/SDK and matt looks strange, otherwise looks as actual scum-hunting, OMGUS might be a factor)
SDK (lot of good questions but resulting in less own content, flicky's 'contribution' weighs him down)
moody (minimal content D2, very strong town read on Madge is strange as hell)
Madge (no vote D1, no explanation, minimal content D2 with imo poor justification)
matt (based on vote-analysis, also his D2 content is almost explicitly just defending himself, not providing anything new)
Scum

Vote: matt96

Going to sleep, will be online before deadline. Please don't leave your content for the last minute!

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:44 pm UTC

matt96 wrote:Because if we assumed no night kill = doctor confirmed, Scum could potentially use that to bait the cop into prematurely claiming or in less likely circumstances create misinformation through causing any existing doctor to think they protected someone who wasn't targeted.

Yeah, I understand your theory. I'm asking why you thought it was important to talk at length about it, or even bring it up at all.

Sabrar wrote:- more reasons on why he finds people townie/scummy as linking to a post isn't enough.
- his analysis on dimochka as he was a player he mostly ignored earlier.

Both of these things are already on my list of things to do. Those full game rundowns are for my benefit as much as yours. I'll be doing a run on each player separately when I can, hopefully tonight.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:55 pm UTC

Reaction to dim's vote: On the reads list, SirG and Sabrar complained that my reads list was done without having enough information to justify it, and now dim's complaining that I didn't put enough detail into it; he also gigged adnapemit for this, but didn't think it was as egregious with her. Mostly I was trying to codify what data there was in order to put down a vote. Since dim was one of two people who didn't have a vote on someone at the end of D1, I can only assume for him insufficient data -> NV.

On SDK's question: General gut feeling on Madge viv a vis content and tone. Post by post analysis to see how well that works:

Spoiler:
D1
Post 1-3: early game kidding around
Post 4: point re cop or doc being RBed that I thought was very good. agrees with Carlington on reads, proposes IIWAC.
Post 5: elaboration on IIWAC, including the freezeblade doctrine (PR sometimes lie for the good of town)
Post 6: removes joke vote on Sabrar, still hates D1, approves lynching flicky

D2
Post 7: sad about lynching the cop, flicky flip would have been useful
Madge wrote:Flicky unlikely scum. If Flicky is scum, sabrar probably is too.
, and vice versa
Post 8: apologetic on being slightly lurky, likes Sabrar's point about matt


Post 4 looks most townie to me, rest is Madge's usual behavior. Since I'm a bit over 90% sure about her, what I said in my previous post stands.


adnapemit: jokingly (?) has herself on the reads list, which has Madge and me closest to the top, flicky and Sabrar most scummy. Second T->S list shifts flicky up, matt way down with a vote, which is a bit odd. Explains matt's quick demotion by pointing to a post that I think she feels was PR fishing. Sabrar also scummy due to voting for Carlington (same thing I pointed out. but I made much less of it). next post responds to a couple people, then auditions a bunch of scum teams, and votes matt again. responds to Sabrar about the ausitions. slightly scummy, especially if flicky/SDK is also scum.

dimochka: not convinced about scum!flicky, Sabrar active lurking. full player analysis at the end of which he votes me. Slightly agrieved, but I'm keeping him at neutral for now.

matt96: reads post with Sabrar and Madge as most townie, votes Carlington. response to Sabrar on Carlington dying in silence, responding to adnapemit about her vote on him, then a couple of posts responding to SDK. Even with a couple of posts that look informative, I'm only getting a neutral read off him.

Sabrar: :shock: I did not just see he had a whole page of posts to himself, (scrolls down), yep he really is that verbose.
Critiques my reads list, his has SirG and dim at top, Carlington at bottom, votes Carlington, apparently loves the notification system as he prods all for content, vote analysis (apparently he got more out of it than I did), off which he downgrades matt. analyses adnapemit's auditions, votes matt, then unvotes during extension, revotes matt after a T->S list. Somewhat townie.

SDK: Summary and question posts pretty much standard, which means that, since I've seen him do that from both sides, I have no read on him currently.

Putting myself on record with:

Vote: adnapemit
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 3:25 am UTC

dimochka wrote:Madge: ... Other than this, not much content. Against doc/cop claiming roleblocks, suggests IIWAC. Neutral in my book.

Sabrar and I seem to be the only ones bothered by that one Madge line (quoted 3/4 of the way down this post). What do you think of that?

dimochka wrote:Flicky/SDK - already said I think he's town, and i'll re-read the content SDK posted a bit later, but it's unlikely that I'll be voting for him. If I had to guess I'd label him as vanilla townie (yes I know that this is very likely based on simple probability, but still).

Maybe I've forgotten that you mentioned it, but why do you hold this read? You said above in this same post that you didn't like flicky's list. You also said that you'd reread flicky (and me?) more closely due to Carlington's last words. I assume this town read is shakable in that case?

dimochka wrote:Matt96: Suggests a pretty unlikely scenario (scum withholding kill) ALTHOUGH I was considering the same thing, especially given the previous few games and SKs withholding kills. List included adnapemit and carlington. Promised to be back before D1 deadline but was not; explained it later. List in my opinion was good, and yes it recapped but it pointed out things that were useful in my opinion. Overall IF I believe that he misread carlington as scum, honestly he aligns as town to me. So Neutral leaning town.

Was this read based on a current readthrough of matt's posts, or on notes you already had?


I like that post overall. Makes me feel a bit better about dimochka. Leaning town, overall, I think.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 3:35 am UTC

I wish I could read you, moody, but you're probably town. As in, if I rolled a d4, you'd be scum on a 4. :P

Couple questions.
1) You say Time Panda is "slightly scummy, especially if flicky/SDK is also scum". Does it follow the other way - if she's scum, am I? Is that logic based only on flicky changes places in her reads list?
2) Can you explain your adnapemit scum read? You rundown what she'd done this game, but don't talk about why that makes you suspicious. I'm reading the same thing and ending up with my strongest town read, so...
3) You had a scum read on flicky, but don't mention it when talking about me. Is that for sportmanship, or is there another reason?

PS: Don't give Sabrar a hard time for posting. He's the only one really moving this game forward.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby adnapemit » Sat Jul 23, 2016 4:17 am UTC

I like reading SDK's posts they are always fun. But i also dislike that he replaced flicky because I can never tell if he is scum.
I'm on my phone at the moment so I can't do a proper reads list but if I get home before the deadline then I will try to do one then.

SDK wrote:I agree that Carlington didn't look scummy. Why does matt being wrong make him scum?

And I don't understand the second part, about you being neutral on his reads list. What about that feels scummy?
him being wrong doesn't. But him being certain from one sentence is partially.
I found me being called neutral scummy because it lacked opinion when others seemed to have enough to form one.

I am surprised by moody vote me compared to Sabrar and sdk finding me very townie. But I also agree with SDK that it's more likely he is town than scum.

matt96 wrote:My reaction was much the same, but I felt expanding upon the reasoning I originally gave might help with getting adnapemit to not mistakenly put us at LYLO tomorrow
I have one vote. I also encourage people not to follow me blindly because I do tend to get things wrong a lot.

I don't plan to change vote.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby matt96 » Sat Jul 23, 2016 4:45 am UTC

Just finishing up my analysis now, 2 somewhat lurky players left to go, should be done shortly after the hour

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 4:56 am UTC

I was hoping to get Time Panda's response before posting this (specifically to her changing read on matt Day 1, then confusing explanation of that Day 2), but here's a T/S list with full justification. pedit: Hello, Time Panda! A pleasure to be playing with you again.

adnapemit - Town. Her first posts of the game are perfect for what they are, discussing what's important and getting to work with actually reading people. Even her comment "Now it feels like the game has properly started" confirms where she wanted to go - in the right direction. The change in her reads is questionable, but she follows them to a strongly opinionated end. It wasn't necessary to vote for Carlington, so the fact that she voted elsewhere isn't proof that she's town, but the way she talked about it, and her reasoning for putting her vote on a new wagon instead of on one of the two leading wagons, was townie through and through. Day 2 sees her talking about decent stuff, and again I get the sense that she's trying to solve this game, for real.

dimochka - dimochka can be tricky to read, but he's most likely town. There's not a lot to go on, but he tickles my town-sense in a few minor spots (wording and mindset stuff), then in one major spot with his latest post (just because I think it's clear he's actually thinking about the game). Looking forward to his reply to my questions so I can (hopefully) solidify this read.

Sabrar - In the interest of time, I'm not going to reread all of his posts right now, but they're solid. He's been doing good work, and I didn't catch a single thing in his wordings or mindset that pinged me running through the first time. However, I also didn't catch a single thing that showed a particularly townie mindset either (other than the work ethic, of course). The timing and manner of his vote on Carlington is very concerning to me, and the manner in which he writes leaves room for me to be worried.

moody7277 - Who the hell knows. I have a real tough time with moody, primarily because he posts infrequently, but also because when he does post, I get very little that I can actually read into. He's got a couple actions that look decent (decent take on claiming discussion, leads the votes Day 1 with a vote on flicky, holds his ground on unpopular opinion of Madge) along with a couple that are less so (subtly promoting IIWAC, no concern posting a reads list without a real scum read, ducking out for the end of Day 1). Yep.

Madge - Could be scum. Her scummiest post is this one, hands down, with a generic discussion of what wagons "we" have, an extended caveat that anyone and everyone is a suspect, and a lack of vote despite apparent conviction. Everything else comes down to mindset.
- Self defeating discussion of IIWAC.
- Lack of concern about reads. A lack of involvement in general (even when she does post).
- Strange discussion on flicky/Sabrar tagteam that starts and ends on opposite ends of the spectrum.

matt96 - Probably scum. I wish this read were stronger, but it's the best I've got at this point.
- Not only is this post discussing useless stuff at length, it's also discrediting town reads. I don't know why a town player would post that - if anything it helps scum. Even if they did take the time to write all that down (which I don't think they'd do since their mind would be on more important matters), I think most town players would strongly consider deleting that post. Point is, I do know why scum would post that.
- I previously called this post a good example of towniness, but after reading it a second and third time, I decided it's not such a shining example. It's not bad, and he does take stances in most cases, but it's missing a few key elements. For one thing, flicky's wagon isn't even mentioned, despite the fact that two of his town reads are currently voting for him/me. The vote for Carlington is fine, but almost feels like a prod rather than a serious accusation. It's hard to be that convinced over just one line.
- Lack of scumhunting. Other than his reads list, his only post that seems to want to move in that direction is asking permission to carry on with it.

... Now that I write that all out, I'm considering changing my vote to Madge. We'll see what matt comes back with here. adnapemit and Sabrar, how would you feel about lynching Madge today instead?
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby matt96 » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:07 am UTC

Covering everything since the last reads list

1.adnapemit
Shows up shortly before deadline to say that she is unhappy with both lynch options, but would rather keep flicky alive, updates list lacking explanations, which when later asked about includes the lines
adnapemit wrote:Carlington didn't really drop it's just I was getting lots of townie vibes from Sabrar and I had convinced myself that just because flicky was lurking, it didn't make him scum do I updated my list to reflect how I felt before the night in case I got night killed.
adnapemit wrote:While I am hoping flicky isn't scum because I could have voted for him instead and possibly saved Carlington, I don't really see him as being overly townie.


which seems a bit strange considering that Carlington wasn't acting scummy at all according to adnapemit, and I find it strange that she would leave someone actively contributing to be lynched over someone who the best she could say about would be that lurking doesn't make them scum
adnapemit wrote:Carlington: Random vote based on faux-humility for matt96. Clearly list situations when Doctor and cop should claim. Actively seems to be contributing. Neutral.

flicky1991: Voted adnapemit. Not much in his posts. A couple comments about when the doctor should claim. Expect to see more soon. Slightly scummy.

thoughts on possible scum teams seem made up with the sole purpose of fitting in with her town scum list


Scummiest active player- favoring Flicky over Carlington doesn't seem quite right based on her reads list and explanations, as scum could have wanted the more active player out of the way leaving the easier target of the lurker to get lynched later or could have let things go as they were to keep Flick alive, while staying away from the wagon to deflect suspicion, which would fit with the very safe way she handled day 1 in general.
2. Sabrar
Joins the Carlington wagon, although later points out he was heading in that direction already, causes most of the discussion, although I don't really like his habit of voting very late in the day, although I can't say I'm doing much better on that front.

Possibly scum for some of the same reasons as adnapemit regarding votes favoring Flicky over Carlington, but everthing else points town, making him most townie of the active players
3. flicky1991 now SDK
Flicky was plaing rather poorly, although SDK seems to be almost replacing Sabrar as creator of content, hard to get a read on, especially if moody's claim that he does this regardless of role is true, possible scumbudies of basically anyone other than moody, though those who voted not against him near deadline more likely

5. moody7277
3 posts all of Day 2 so far, reads list seems acceptable, explains general feelings with a brief summary of why he feels that way
most townie out of lurky group

8. dimochka
accidentally missed Day 1 deadline, the way it turned out this could be a convienient excuse for scum, a bit strange that he includes the deceased in his summary/town-scum list but content wise I don't see anything egregious, more likel town than not
9. Madge
Seems to have dropped off the face of the earth, only posts today are about basically giving up after it was revealed that Carlington was the cop, not sure if frustrated town or scum content to let us do what we are doing. Scummiest lurkiest lurker, and even if not scum, certainly is doing nothing to help town.


Vote:Madge

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:11 am UTC

Why did you choose to vote for Madge instead of adnapemit?
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:17 am UTC

Was willing to change to Madge until matt's post. Don't like how he conveniently votes for survival rather for best scum-read. Reasoning for town-read on moody and dimochka seems to be lacking substance. Will reconsider. matt-Madge scum-team also possible.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:20 am UTC

Even a vote for me would have made more sense based on what he's written out there... I've gotta go to bed. How fast can you be, Sabrar?
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby matt96 » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:21 am UTC

I went with madge over adnapemit simply because adnapemit is at least posting, and I'd like to see her try to explain the things I find scum-like and although there are things I find much scummier than I did about Carlington, I'm not certain enough about it yet, although if something else I missed could be pointed out, I'd be likely to switch, and rather importantly, there are two scum, so it is possible that they both are, but if I'm wrong, I'd rather take the loss of a lurking town than an active one.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:26 am UTC

If you wanted adnapemit to explain, why didn't you ask her any questions?

Active vs. lurker should not be a major factor in your decision. If you're 60% sure in both cases, sure, vote the lurker. But it sounds like you're quite a bit more sure about adnapemit. Is that not the case?
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby matt96 » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:29 am UTC

Also, madge has put down 0 serious votes all game, I'd consider her to be a liability at best and taking advantage of your stated preference for lynching based on content rather than lack their of at worst.
And regarding questioning adnapemit, I sort of expected that she would point out any part of my observations she felt were incorrect like I did with hers, is that not the case normally?

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:33 am UTC

matt96 wrote:Also, madge has put down 0 serious votes all game, I'd consider her to be a liability at best and taking advantage of your stated preference for lynching based on content rather than lack their of at worst.

I don't think I've ever said that, though I do tend to advocate lynching lurkers based on what they've posted instead of just the lack of what they might have posted. Who's taking advantage, though? I did say I wanted to vote for her, after all. Her lurking is certainly not helping her case, so what are you getting at here?

matt96 wrote:And regarding questioning adnapemit, I sort of expected that she would point out any part of my observations she felt were incorrect like I did with hers, is that not the case normally?

Maybe so. I prefer a more direct approach, but maybe that's not your style.



Also:
SDK wrote:Active vs. lurker should not be a major factor in your decision. If you're 60% sure in both cases, sure, vote the lurker. But it sounds like you're quite a bit more sure about adnapemit. Is that not the case?
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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby matt96 » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:37 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I really don't like leaving lurkers alive but for now I'm going to vote based on actual content rather than lack of thereof.

was referring to this

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:39 am UTC

Hate being rushed. Specifically asked people to post earlier. :(
Agree with matt that Madge is a liability. Remembered game where she stated that lurking was a valid option for scum. Here it is.
Doesn't mean I want to switch, though matt's run-on sentence looked genuine. Hoepfully can decide in 5 minutes so still have time for reactions.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:42 am UTC

matt96 wrote:
Sabrar wrote:I really don't like leaving lurkers alive but for now I'm going to vote based on actual content rather than lack of thereof.

was referring to this

Okay. Now answer my question re: relative confidence between adnapemit and Madge. (Throw me in there too if you want to)
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:44 am UTC

matt96 wrote:but if I'm wrong, I'd rather take the loss of a lurking town than an active one.

SDK wrote:Active vs. lurker should not be a major factor in your decision.

matt96 wrote:
Sabrar wrote:I really don't like leaving lurkers alive but for now I'm going to vote based on actual content rather than lack of thereof.

was referring to this

I don't think that's a proper context, I chose to lynch the player that I actually found scummy while you want to lynch the player who could cause us more trouble IF you're wrong.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:47 am UTC

I think matt's case on adnapemit relies heavily on cherry picking things and ignoring others.
@matt: could you try to judge how OMGUS affected you?

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:48 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Hate being rushed. Specifically asked people to post earlier. :(

I'm posting as fast as I can!

Sabrar wrote:Doesn't mean I want to switch, though matt's run-on sentence looked genuine. Hoepfully can decide in 5 minutes so still have time for reactions.

I'm pretty sure I'm not switching. His reasoning might be what he was thinking at the time, but it doesn't follow from a town mindset. I'm not sure if he's intentionally avoiding my question, but he seems more sure enough about adnapemit that he shouldn't be voting for a lurker anyway. Lurkers are easy targets and tend to give much less information going into the next day as well.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:49 am UTC

Just realized that we have more than an hour to go. Feel better.

@SDK: when do you plan to go to sleep?

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:50 am UTC

EBWOP: was referring to matt's list, not you.


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