FAC668 - Game Over

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matt96
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby matt96 » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:51 am UTC

Although it may seem a bit weird, I'm just really concerned that if I do get adnapemit lynched, it might turn out that she was being so defensive due to being the doctor, I'd put her odds at around 70-20-10 Scum/VT/Doctor, where as I'd put madge closer to 60/40 Scum/town, although with having previously stated that lurking is a valid scum strategy, I'd bump that up at least 8-9 percent,
I'd put SDK at around 27% chance of being scum, Sabrar around 12%, Dimo and Moody about 20%.
was quoting that for SDK in regards to Madge taking advantage of you being more focused on active players than lurkers.

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Sabrar
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:55 am UTC

Unvote

Just realized that matt has been on L-1 for ages. Why did scum not hammer? Need time to think through.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:59 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@SDK: when do you plan to go to sleep?

An hour ago.

Sabrar wrote:EBWOP: was referring to matt's list, not you.

I know. Just joking.

Sabrar wrote:Unvote

Just realized that matt has been on L-1 for ages. Why did scum not hammer? Need time to think through.

Even if matt is town, scum not hammering doesn't mean anything.



... new question, matt. Did you see my post prior to posting yours? Specifically the bit at the end about wanting to lynch Madge more than you.
1) If so, how did that influence your decision to vote? Even if it didn't influence your choice, how did you feel about my comment as your made your post?
2) If not, why not? You must have been curious to see the reasoning for my read on you at least, right?
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:59 am UTC

Okay, not that hard. 3 possibilities:

1. matt is scum
2. both scum are already on his train. fmpov adnapemit + SDK. Would mean I'm completely wrong about the former which has been known to happen.
3. 1 scum is just not playing the game. Means Madge is scum, other probably already on train, most likely SDK.

Have I missed anything?

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:01 am UTC

4. They don't need to hammer.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:04 am UTC

But they could have done so couple hours ago, denying matt the opportunity to post his reads, convince others to switch, whatever. Might have looked suspicious though. OK, 4 possibilities, but then it doesn't tell us much...

Sabrar wrote:@matt: could you try to judge how OMGUS affected you?

Still open.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby matt96 » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:05 am UTC

4.5 Hammering before we finished discussion would be the scummiest thing to happen all game and they would rather not out themselves.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:09 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:but then it doesn't tell us much...

Yeah. L-1 is way less scary than it's cracked up to be. Except in lylo. Don't do it in lylo. There are certain situations where it gives you info, but this game ain't one of 'em. A couple hours is nothing. Even if scum was online, it takes time to build up the nerve to pull a hammer. There's also the fact that if you didn't notice, they probably didn't notice either. If he'd been at L-1 for a few days, then sure.


matt, two open questions at the moment. I'm staying up just for this, so if you want me to switch my vote before I pass out at my computer, you'd best hurry.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby matt96 » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:21 am UTC

Did you see my post prior to posting yours? Specifically the bit at the end about wanting to lynch Madge more than you.
1) If so, how did that influence your decision to vote? Even if it didn't influence your choice, how did you feel about my comment as your made your post?
2) If not, why not? You must have been curious to see the reasoning for my read on you at least, right?


I saw that there were new posts, But I didn't read through them until after posting. After reading it I felt more confident about the vote I had put out. The post I was writing was in an old window, rather than saved as a draft so the last 5 posts popped up and I didn't realize yours was new. About the one post you dislike as brought up in your post, I will acknowledge that it is unlikely, but I have seen stranger things happen, although to be fair, an open set-up like this is very different to the Turbo PyPs I mostly played, but I still think the more it is said that something would absolutely never happen, the more can be gained by someone subverting that expectation.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:25 am UTC

Sabrar?

In a vacuum, I don't really have a strong preference between matt and Madge. The fact that matt is voting for Madge makes my head hurt and I'm too tried to keep typing at the moment. I guess you can let the gods decide if you just tie up the votals. If you want to convince me to switch my vote, I'll come back in five minutes.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:29 am UTC

Undecided, definitely don't want to convince you of switching. However me voting for Madge still leaves matt to be lynched according to tie-breaker rules (look at setup rules in OP) so wouldn't achieve anything.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby matt96 » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:30 am UTC

SDK wrote:I guess you can let the gods decide if you just tie up the votals.

Just need to correct this, today is a Heads, as listed under set up, so in the case of tied votes between two players where not everyone is voting, the first player listed alphabetically is lynched.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:31 am UTC

BTW what do you mean by 'in a vacuum'? I'm perplexed by that phrase in this context.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:33 am UTC

matt96 wrote:Just need to correct this, today is a Heads, as listed under set up, so in the case of tied votes between two players where not everyone is voting, the first player listed alphabetically is lynched.

I thought we would go in order until a particular coin-flip is used up, so we're still on Tails.

@mpolo: which coin-flip would be used today to decide in case of a tie?

Unlikely to get an answer in time but worth a shot.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:33 am UTC

@dimochka: do you have any suggestions?

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby SDK » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:35 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:BTW what do you mean by 'in a vacuum'? I'm perplexed by that phrase in this context.

Not accounting for matt's vote on Madge, basically. That behaviour vs. that behaviour without accounting for interaction.

Good night. Happy lynching.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:37 am UTC

If rules are not clear I don't want to leave it to chance. Way too easy to hide behind them. Also matt didn't answer my question about OMGUS, possibly because he can't consider it from townie pov.

Vote: matt96

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:38 am UTC

@SDK: oh, I see. Good night!

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby matt96 » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:45 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:If rules are not clear I don't want to leave it to chance. Way too easy to hide behind them. Also matt didn't answer my question about OMGUS, possibly because he can't consider it from townie pov.

Vote: matt96

Sorry, just didn't see it with how fast we all were posting, I do have to admit it knowing myself to be town does factor into my assessment of adnapemit's attacks on me, but I feel that the other scum pairs other than the potential of you and flicky(now SDK), which I seriously doubt, don't hold up anyways, and that the slipping of Flicky above Carlington in her last post of Day 1 is still insufficiently explained.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby dimochka » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:47 am UTC

give me 10 minutes, finishing a post.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:47 am UTC

We have deadline in 13. Post the short version now, please.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby dimochka » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:52 am UTC

First, to answer questions:
- Madge's note about IIWAC doesn't really bother me. I feel like it's come up and worked in some games in the past so I feel like this was a suggestion that we all agreed wasn't well thought out.
- everything in my last post was based off a full re-read, i did not go back for any notes
- I wanted to re-read any interactions that carlington had related to flicky on D1, but nothing particular jumped out
- i included dead people in game because i thought their reactions and the responses to those reactions would help me do better analysis. i also tried to retroactively see why the two people that died were those people specifically.

Ok now the other pieces:
1a (flicky). Why I think flicky was/is town: flicky first considers doctor strategy ignoring lack of death case. Posts that terrible list. In that list he mentions that little bit about not fighting a lynch - that was the first (though very minor) thing for me that made him seem town. Also, given the way he writes I would have expected to have stronger opinions as scum (though yes that would be a bit of a tell) about some people. His inability to pick a lynch target on anything substantive seems to me more like town than scum. Asks for replacement.
1b (sdk). i don't have time to go through all this now because of the time, and i'm happy to do it on D3, but overall really good content and questions.

(rushing now because of deadline and people going to sleep and stuff)

Sabrar - I'll prepare a full post for D3 and post if I'm still alive, but basically I mentioned the analysis D1 that pinged me, the posts at the end of D1 where he has contemplating switching (and would be very convenient if he were scum and the two choices were town), and then other posts across the game that feel neither town nor scum to me. So it's neutral with those two reasons that feel more scummy that makes me suspect him.

I still suspect moody the most based on what I wrote. I would likely be more comfortable with a madge lynch over a matt lynch if those are the only two options.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby dimochka » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:55 am UTC

@Sabrar - I did not yet fully re-read you, I just have some messy notes that I haven't fully consolidated yet. There are things in both directions at this point for me.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:57 am UTC

matt96 wrote:Sorry, just didn't see it with how fast we all were posting, I do have to admit it knowing myself to be town does factor into my assessment of adnapemit's attacks on me, but I feel that the other scum pairs other than the potential of you and flicky(now SDK), which I seriously doubt, don't hold up anyways, and that the slipping of Flicky above Carlington in her last post of Day 1 is still insufficiently explained.

Don't like this answer, seems more like avoiding the question.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby matt96 » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:57 am UTC

Last thoughts,
Good luck with the scum hunting tomorrow, I hope some use will come of this massive surge of posts, be wary of potential false claims, really wish we could have had some more content like this earlier and last but not least, try not to blow it a third time.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Two

Postby dimochka » Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:59 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
matt96 wrote:Sorry, just didn't see it with how fast we all were posting, I do have to admit it knowing myself to be town does factor into my assessment of adnapemit's attacks on me, but I feel that the other scum pairs other than the potential of you and flicky(now SDK), which I seriously doubt, don't hold up anyways, and that the slipping of Flicky above Carlington in her last post of Day 1 is still insufficiently explained.

Don't like this answer, seems more like avoiding the question.

That's probably what I look like as well when I don't have time to post stuff constantly, but it did stand out to me too.
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Re: FAC668 - Night Two

Postby mpolo » Sat Jul 23, 2016 7:32 am UTC

Again the bickering in the town continued until the sun had almost set, and the gallows would be again put into action. One townsperson noted how overly sad the so-called moody was. Perhaps he could be feeling guilty for his nightly activities? "Nonsense," said the paleontologist, "haven't you ever played Nethack? It is completely clear — Thinking of Madge you forget everything else! Madge is the godfather!" "Unlikely, as Madge is not a father at all," said moody, "it's the panda, I tell you!" However, the loudest voices pointed at the paleontologist. "When was the last time we found a fossil in this village? Wouldn't it make more sense for him to live out by the tar pits somewhere?" A small pack of wolves joined in, howling for his demise. In the end, matt96 was no more.

matt96 is dead. Let's try to get night done by Monday morning: deadline

My access times have been somewhat erratic, and are likely to continue that way... Thanks to all for respecting the deadline.

Votals:
Madge (1): matt96
matt96 (3): adnapemit, SDK, Sabrar
adnapemit (1): moody7277
moody7277 (1): dimochka

Not voting: Madge
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Re: FAC668 - Night Two

Postby mpolo » Sat Jul 23, 2016 3:34 pm UTC

Rules clarification: The first time I need a random result, I will consult the first of the given coin flips.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby mpolo » Mon Jul 25, 2016 7:30 am UTC

As day dawned, it was clear that matt96 really was a paleontologist and nothing more. His whole house was filled with samples of amber with mosquitos trapped inside. He was probably just making a study of the properties of amber or some such. Shortly thereafter, adnapemit was found dead. She had woken up in the night, dressed in white clothing and put a stethoscope around her neck. Unfortunately, someone had used this device as an ersatz garrotte and ended her life. "Strange," mused one of the townspeople, "that our doctor felt it necessary to slink around in the night instead of opening a practice like anyone else…"

matt96 is dead. He was Vanilla Town. adnapemit is dead. She was a doctor. Five townies remain with no possibility of protection, so this is LYLO.

Three to hammer. Deadline.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:12 am UTC

@matt: sorry.

@Madge: This was your last post in the thread. Please let us know if you're still here.

@all: do you think scum killed adnapemit because matt thought she might be Doctor? Is it worthwhile to analyse the NK-s?

Only silver lining is that scum has no false claim with which to confuse us. Time for re-reads.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Madge » Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:20 am UTC

Sorry, I have taken ill (just a cold).

I "love" how we had the good fortune to have both a doc and a cop, and yet scum is still having a perfect game. I'm sure if we were all VTs we'd have lynched scum D1 and D2 :roll:

ALIVE:
Madge
SDK
Sabrar
Dimochka
Moody

Two of us are scum. Far out. And my participation in this game has not exactly inspired confidence. Honestly if I was anyone but me I'd be on the top of my scumlist, which makes this very difficult. It makes me suspect moody, funnily enough, because he seems to be pretty happy that I'm townie. That said, I can't fault his conclusion!

At the moment for some reason dimochka is my gut scum read, and sabrar. If I had to pick right now it'd be those two, but I'm not sure there's evidence they're a team. Or maybe the sabrar/flicky!SDK team is a little more likely now (or scum kept them alive so it would remain so).
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:08 pm UTC

@Madge: nice to see you back, hope you feel better!

Re-read dimochka to get a feel for him before he posts his analysis on me to avoid OMGUS. Of course at this point I can't help but to be paranoid about everything, so make of this what you will.
I found that I liked this read-list from him and also his replies to SDK's questions here. Not because of actual content but rather for their general tone. They simply don't feel forced to me.
My two main issues with his contribution were already mentioned, his 'claim to be roleblocked' idea is terrible and he missed D1 deadline so we don't have read-list and vote from him. These however could be honest mistakes.
I also found it strange that he continues to find me suspicious because of a scenario that has a low chance of occuring (and mentioning it only on D2), while he brought up a similar situation earlier here. This I can only see as a double standard but I'm not the most objective person here.

Overall with Carlington and matt I was wrong to consider content primarily and discard the possibility of honest mistakes. That would lead me to a more townie-read on dimochka but I don't feel too comfortable about it.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Mon Jul 25, 2016 6:08 pm UTC

Questions for Madge.

Questions for moody.

dimochka, you misread my first question in this post. I was asking about this quote:
Madge wrote:At this stage I think the bandwagon on flicky is the best we have, though I am sure at least one scummer is going to be among the people making very helpful posts because it's the best place for scum to hide.
and would still appreciate your thoughts on that.

Sabrar wrote:@all: do you think scum killed adnapemit because matt thought she might be Doctor? Is it worthwhile to analyse the NK-s?

*shrug* Maybe? I don't know that anyone had any particular motivation to kill adnapemit, other than that I came out strongly calling her town. Maybe too strongly.

What are you thinking right now, Sabrar? I know you'll want to do a reread before committing, but I want to know your feelings prior to that reread.

I myself am having a tough time with you four. I can't decide whether to just throw fate to the wind and trust you fully. dimochka is basically in the same boat. If I just go with my reads, that's that. But my gut is conflicted.
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 25, 2016 6:20 pm UTC

SDK wrote:What are you thinking right now, Sabrar? I know you'll want to do a reread before committing, but I want to know your feelings prior to that reread.

Very brief reply: would absolutely hate to lose to lurking Madge. Anyone else I'm okay with.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Mon Jul 25, 2016 7:06 pm UTC

Such subtle mind tricks. :evil:
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 25, 2016 7:23 pm UTC

Because this wasn't?
SDK wrote:*shrug* Maybe? I don't know that anyone had any particular motivation to kill adnapemit, other than that I came out strongly calling her town. Maybe too strongly.
If you check back she was my top town-read as well.

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:21 pm UTC

Do you think I'm town?
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:44 pm UTC

I think dimochka+moody team is unlikely (and if I'm wrong here you must be Town), so either Madge or you has to be scum. If Madge is scum then I guess moody is her partner as it would be weird for town!moody to misread Madge to that extent. If you're scum then your partner is probably dimochka, mostly for the same reason but also because of moody's vote on flicky D1. So currently I'm hesitating between Madge+moody and you+dimochka. If I were forced to choose right now the former seems more likely, so overall I'm currently inclined to think you're Town.

How about you? What scum-pairs do you find likely?

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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:19 pm UTC

I agree that Madge/moody is a possibility, but one problem I'm having is really finding much to link everyone. I'll want to go through this game again before the Day's out, but from memory there's not much interaction to be had that really disqualifies any pairs in my mind. If Madge is scum, it's unlikely that you are, I suppose. If you're scum, I'd think dimochka would be your most likely scum buddy. moody fits anywhere, as does dimochka as far as I'm concerned.

Why do you think a moody/dimochka team is unlikely?
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Re: FAC668 - Day Three

Postby SDK » Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:20 pm UTC

I guess based on that quick and dirty rundown, Madge should be the lynch since it's the best bet and gives the most info (namely, clearing you (and probably me?) as town).
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