FAC668 - Game Over

[Carlington]

I wake up to this?. Six hours to deadline. I wanted to post before now, but I've had a very busy couple of days.

You three have got the wrong guy by a long way. I'm going to put together a reads list and post it ASAP. That's all for now.

[Carlington]

If anyone currently voting me is online now, please unvote. I'm almost done with my reads list and it will be immediately forthcoming.

[Carlington]

SirG: Solid reasoning about when PRs should claim and should not, and the reads list seemed well thought through to me. The only point against is how willing he was to follow matt into voting me, but that could be OMGUS. Townie.

Madge: Fairly quiet, but hates D1. Hasn't really done anything to rustle up conversation though. Made a good point that PRs shouldn't claim being RBed, suggested IIWAC but seemed to realise midway through writing that it was a bad idea but posted it anyway? I can't really criticise, given how stream of consciousness my writing here usually is. Neutral, slightly townie.

Sabrar: Analysis aplenty, as always. Seemed to get pretty caught up on the one specific scenario where follow the cop is possible, despite the relatively low likelihood of it happening. Still, this seems to fit his meta of being very interested in deep analysis and statistics. Pointed out that NK would be bad for scum, and that many particular questions can only be answered case by case. Good reasoning surrounding IIWAC and I liked his suggestions on how to get the cop info out there without raising suspicion. Disagreed with moody's reads on me and adnapemit. Pointed out that I made a lot of the same mistakes as when I was scum in Penpal, to which I can only say that making mistakes is a null tell for me...it's kinda just my general state of existence. I always struggle to read Sabrar but I'll say marginally townie for now.

adnapemit: Two posts agreeing with ideas proposed by others, followed by a reads list which contained a list of lots of things people had done and said, but I struggle to see whether she finds those things townie or scummy. Included herself in her reads list, which it seemed like she did only for the opportunity to tell people she was townie and that this was her D1 meta. Questioned Sabrar on why he chose the people he did for his examples. Slightly scummy.

flicky: Very little content, and a terrible reads post. A couple of posts that could have been used to post content but instead were used to say "Nah, I have no content to post". A weird mix of lurky and scummy. The only positive is the willingness to take a mislynch instead of a power role, but that's still willingness to mislynch town so I'm damning with faint praise here. Scummy

matt: Reacted pretty defensively to my random vote, justifying the legitimacy of his humility which was never really in doubt to begin with. Did a good job of pointing out flaws in the reasoning of others without contributing much reasoning of his own. Content dropped later in the day but that's due to RL. Jumped pretty hard at what he saw as my scummy play in suggesting methods for a cop to breadcrumb. Neutral to slightly scummy.

moody: Taciturn as ever, but what's there seems to be well reasoned to me. His reads were criticised, to which he didn't respond at all. Hopefully a bit more vocal on D2, but nothing objectionable, so moderately townie.

dimochka: Reacted pretty strongly to RV, and then RVed me apparently mistakenly. Disclaimed PGO, pretty clearly a joke though. Pointed out that focusing on individual scenarios isn't the greatest idea, which is true. Asked whether a PR should ever claim being RBed, which has been covered pretty thoroughly as being a bad idea upthread. Against IIWAC, which I agree with him on. All over the place imo, hard to pin down. Not really pinging me but also I don't feel great about putting him down as townie, so I'll say neutral pending a closer look.

All in all,

Vote: flicky1991

[adnapemit]

It's way too close to the deadline.
At this point I don't think Carlington is scum but I doubt flicky is more (Even though his post are really not in support of this and I hope he tries to add more day 2).
I'm not happy to add to the votes for either but I would rather lynch Carlington so I'm not going to vote for either.
My list has changed slightly.

Town

adnapemit
moody7277
dimochka
Madge
Sabrar
flicky1991
Carlington
SirGabriel
matt96

Scum

Vote: matt96

[Sabrar]

Unofficial votals:
Carlington 3
flicky 2
adnapemit 1
matt 1

As things stand now unvoting Carlington means lynching flicky instead by the tie-breaker described in the rules (unless someone else votes for adnapemit at which point it becomes random I believe which we don't want in my opinion).
I don't like having so little time to decide, also the following players need to also vote:

...

...

Please if you're here let us know your thoughts. I should be here until the deadline.

Updated with ninja.

[Sabrar]

2 minutes until deadline and nobody's here? Great.

I've decided no to change my vote.

[Sabrar]

EBWOP: *not

[Carlington]

-_-

[mpolo]

As the sun sank, the discussion became more heated. "That flicky, he's a pet store owner in a town with only 9 people! He must be getting his income by nefarious means." "No, no. Have you noticed that 'adnapemit' is 'timepanda' backwards? You realize what that means? Time-travelling panda mafia godfather!!" "Silly people, what do you think a paleontologist is doing in this town. Gathering bones, that's what! We should lynch matt." However, by the end of the day, the loudest voices claimed that someone with a beard like that could only be up to no good. So it was Carlington who danced the hemp fandango.

Night has fallen. Carlington has been lynched. His role will be revealed in the morning. Deadline for night: Tuesday morning

[mpolo]

The night seemed to fly by in a mere moment. Had they done the right thing? Early in the morning they began to go through the personal effects of the victim of their public vigilance. Unfortunately, when they got deep enough in his personal documents, they realized the unfathomable: the nefarious bearded man was not so nefarious after all. In fact, he was an undercover detective from XKCiDy. It certainly would have been helpful to have had him around. Furthermore, the town eccentric was not out on the square that morning, doing his typical "jousting". Indeed, someone had slipped into SirGabriel's house, removed the gorget, which normally never left his neck, and slit his throat.

Carlington is dead. He was a Sane Cop.

SirGabriel is dead. He was Vanilla Town.

7 players remain, 4 to hammer. Deadline.

N.B. As all actions were in, and I happened to be free this morning, I went ahead and started this early.

[Sabrar]

Well, damn. Why didn't Carlington claim?

FoS on dimochka and Madge for not voting and not providing a read list.

[flicky1991]

...Yeah, that was stupid.

Unsurprising that someone that was being read generally as townie took the night hit.

[moody7277]

Putting up the voting order for what it's worth:

flicky: moody,SirG, Carlington
adnapemit: flicky
Carlington: matt, SirG, Sabrar
matt: adnapemit

[dimochka]

i did not realize the deadline was mid weekend. i was fully expecting to login sunday night and respond. this is my fault. i'll re-read now.

i also don't have notifications for quotes and stuff, i'll turn them on now.

[matt96]

Well, damn. Why didn't Carlington claim?

Perhaps because the issues we had with his cop strategies made him uncertain about following any of them? Perhap because he would still be unlikely to survive the night and get results? (requires no RB to prevent him from getting results and is only safe if there is a doctor or scum didn't want to chance not getting off a night kill, even at the cost of letting results go through.) Also looking back at his posts, how much he may have thought that between how much he talked about cop strategies and especially in his reads list [quote="Carlington" so I'll say neutral pending a closer look.[/quote]
may have been enough for one of us to put it together, if it was not so close to the deadline. But regarding living players, like Sabrar, I would like to see the thoughts of Dimochka and Madge soon, and additionally I think that an explanation of why Carlington, Sir Gabriel, and I all dropped below Flicky and Sabrar on adnapemit's list might be a bit more useful than the changes in the list just being there.

[matt96]

EBWOP quote should be

so I'll say neutral pending a closer look.

[adnapemit]

In my last list:

Town

adnapemit
moody7277
dimochka
Madge
Sabrar
flicky1991
Carlington
SirGabriel
matt96

Scum

Matt became the scummiest because of:

The way that it is phrased sounds more to me like scum trying to pick out the cop at the time of the posts rather than sounding like town looking back trying to find results, strongest scum read I have

I didn't read it that way, and I would also argue that a person who is scum wouldn't gain in any way by phrasing the sentence that way. That was what I thought before he was lynched and now I think that if he had died after he got a result we can how that would have aided us in finding hints at his result without him actually claiming. He also placed me as neutral on his reads only including that I agreed with two players and that I posted a reads list. This just feels slightly scummy to me and the combination of the two things put him at the scummiest.

SirGabriel dropped because he switched his vote to Carlington due to points made by matt.
Carlington didn't really drop it's just I was getting lots of townie vibes from Sabrar and I had convinced myself that just because flicky was lurking, it didn't make him scum do I updated my list to reflect how I felt before the night in case I got night killed.

Now since Carlington got lynched Sabrar is looking scummier because of the three that voted for Carlington there is likely at least one scum among them. SirGabriel got killed which is slightly odd to me(I wasn't reading him as townie) and he also voted Carlington which immediately makes him look slightly more scummy once Carlington was revealed as town.
While I am hoping flicky isn't scum because I could have voted for him instead and possibly saved Carlington, I don't really see him as being overly townie.

Another list:

Town

adnapemit
moody7277
dimochka
Madge
flicky1991
Sabrar
matt96

Scum

[Sabrar]

Quick reaction:
- if flicky is scum then I agree that it's almost certain that either matt or myself is his partner (and fmpov it must be matt)
- if flicky is town then I would think scum most likely avoided both trains in order not to expose themselves

[dimochka]

I know I keep having excuses but the last few weeks have been a mess, and I keep hoping for this to be a good outlet and then I get busy.

I have two thoughts so far.
#1 I really don't see anyone's case regarding flicky. Sure flicky originally had a thought that wasn't fully right about the doctor only claiming if about to get lynched, but to be fair there is no other reason for doctor to claim till later in the game, so I don't know why this is suspicious. A failed night kill does not mean the doctor claims until that ensures a town majority. Also the analysis flicky provided on D1 is devoid of content, but again nothing there sticks out to me. I'd expect to see a stronger opinion from scum on at least 1 or 2 people, and I simply don't. So flicky is on the townie/neutral side to me.
#2 I didn't get a chance to mention it D1, but Sabrar's suggestions regarding how we should act if a combination of several unlikely events happen seemed to me like he was trying to create content and look townie without actually adding much to our discussion. So honestly if I had been able to go back to D1, that was what stood out to me most.

I'm going through others right now but I wanted to throw these out there.

[Sabrar]

@dimochka: as you may remember from Pen Pal I like to explore all possibilities however remote. It's simply a force of habit to look for corner cases when a plan feels too general to me.

[Sabrar]

@Madge: please join the conversation.

...

[Madge]

I'm just really upset that we lynched our cop. If he'd claimed, admittedly he'd have been killed N1, but at least we'd have a lynch flip on Flicky to go by.

I feel kind of hopeless now. Scumhunting is not a strength of mine, and now I don't have the possibility of cop results to look forward to I'm at a bit of a loss.

I'm still not sure how the wagon turned on Carlington, but I think the Carlington wagon doesn't make Flicky any more suspicious than anyone else. I feel like getting a flip on Flicky would be useful as it would tell us if the people on the Carlington train were likely to be scum tactically voting, but with only two scummers I don't think they'd risk it, especially if it didn't work and scum!flippy was lynched, it would make the short-lived unsuccessful Carlington pushers look very bad. Basically Carlington was lynched by a majority, and if flicky is scum who was being protected there is at most one scum on that wagon. In that case my guess would be Sabrar, as they seem to be the last person to vote flicky.

So while I think lynching flicky would be useful, I think flicky is more likely to be town than most people (we have 2/7 scum = 28% for anyone to be scum, so I think flicky is about 15% likely to be scum, say).

tl;dr:

Flicky unlikely scum. If Flicky is scum, sabrar probably is too.

If flicky is town, sabrar probably is too as I don't think scum would change the wagon that late in the game like Sabrar did if it wasn't saving their own.

--> flicky, sabrar are probably both town IMO

[flicky1991]

Hi guys, I've been quite ill over the last couple of days - while it's possible I'll get better before it affects the game too much, it's probably for the best if you can find a replacement for me.

[Sabrar]

Vote analysis in order:

Spoiler:

moody votes flicky: if moody is Town he simply voted for the most lurking player, if he's scum flicky was a safe choice based on other people's content. moody-flicky scum team unlikely as he could have waited for flicky's promised content. In my opinion Town!moody should have also waited but due to deadline falling on a weekend and the fact that flicky has been silent for more than a day that itself is not scummy. Null-tell.

flicky votes for adnapemit: if flicky is Town he also voted for a lurking player, if he's scum I think he just threw out a vote because it was the 'right' thing to do. I don't think adnapemit was at risk of being lynched at any point so scum!flicky might have bussed a teammate but more probably not. Null-tell.
Aside: regarding dimochka's remark that he would expect more stronger opinions from scum I think he fails to take into account that flicky hasn't been scum (by his own admission) for a very long time so he might really be that indecisive now (especially on D1 when he didn't have the chance to talk with his partner yet).

matt votes for Carlington: if matt is Town he genuinely found Carlington's comment suspicious, however given the apparent work he put into going over his content it seems a bit strange that he would focus on this one and only discover a potential hint at being Cop later. If matt is scum it's likely that he noticed that hint D1 and wanted to kill the Cop or at least force him to claim, also he might have wanted to save flicky. More likely scum.
Aside: SirGabriel (a confirmed Town) thought that matt made good points but given the time-stamps it is possible that he didn't think it through all the way.

adnapemit votes for matt: she waited for Carlington's content which is the right thing to do, though null-tell in itself. If she's Town the vote itself is meaningless as there was no way that with only half an hour to go both of the other trains would be abandoned. If scum that's a good way to either stay away from both trains (if flicky is town) or to save flicky while not doing much. However her justification on D2 looks good, in hindsight I agree with her that the specific comment that matt focused on was unlikely to be written by scum as it was simply unnecessary to make that thought public. More likely town.

TL;DR: adnapemit more townie, matt more scummy. If flicky is scum most likely teammate is matt, if flicky is town I would assume there is at least 1 scum in {adnapemit, dimochka, Madge} due to not participating in either train (with adnapemit being the least likely).

Would like to see the continued analysis from dimochka, also don't like how Madge extends her dislike of D1 to D2 just because Cop is dead.

[Sabrar]

EBWOP: best of wishes flicky!

Bolded for mpolo's attention: could you ask for a replacement?

...

[Madge]

don't like how Madge extends her dislike of D1 to D2 just because Cop is dead.

Was just trying to be honest and perhaps explain why I was quiet. I saw the topic reply notification, saw Carlington was cop, growled in frustration and closed the tab, then came back the next day because we've got a reality that we have to deal with (dead cop) and I shouldn't stick my head in the sand about it.

I think you make a good point about Matt FWIW. I should read the votes a bit more thoroughly and see if I change my mind. I just don't see scum saving their only scummate by changing wagons unless they were sure it would work (i.e. they changed the balance of power) which is where my logic in putting you as scum!Flicky's mate comes from. Like I said though I don't think Flicky is scum so it's not really worth wasting time speculating.

[Sabrar]

@moody: please provide some actual content.

...

[matt96]

Looks like I have a bit of explaining to do

The way that it is phrased sounds more to me like scum trying to pick out the cop at the time of the posts rather than sounding like town looking back trying to find results, strongest scum read I have

I didn't read it that way, and I would also argue that a person who is scum wouldn't gain in any way by phrasing the sentence that way.

Regarding this first point, what I was saying about that line was that it seemed like Carlington may have slipped up by writing things out a bit too much from his perspective rather than the perspective of a townie who would be looking back for the hints the cop had left behind, unfortunately, I assumed this to be from scum trying to find the hints to find the cop rather than his actual perspective, being that of the cop who obviously would not be looking back for the hints due to both having the actual results and being dead.

He also placed me as neutral on his reads only including that I agreed with two players and that I posted a reads list. This just feels slightly scummy to me and the combination of the two things put him at the scummiest.

Unlike the people who posted reads lists before me, I was a bit more willing to not hold what felt like defensive/passive play (reasonable given the relative lack of content up to that point, although I didn't feel like you were doing anything to alleviate that.) against you.

however given the apparent work he put into going over his content it seems a bit strange that he would focus on this one and only discover a potential hint at being Cop

The only one I think might have been Carlington trying to hint at being a cop was the pending a closer look statement, which was posted after I fell asleep. In regards to the statement I had an issue with, when looking back at it, Carlington being the cop explains why he wouldn't be looking back for the breadcrumbed results, as stated above.

For thoughts more in line with scum hunting, I was considering writing up a post detailing my thoughts on who each other players scum buddy would most likely be if they were scum, does this seem like a good idea or will 2/3rds of it being speculation about a situation we are not in create more wine than it is worth?

[Sabrar]

The only one I think might have been Carlington trying to hint at being a cop was the pending a closer look statement, which was posted after I fell asleep.

True, I didn't check when that specific quote was posted as I assumed that you were also online during the deadline based on the wording of your previous post so the timing didn't matter.

For thoughts more in line with scum hunting, I was considering writing up a post detailing my thoughts on who each other players scum buddy would most likely be if they were scum, does this seem like a good idea or will 2/3rds of it being speculation about a situation we are not in create more wine than it is worth?

I think this is something that would be useful in all games however the content is usually not sufficient (especially on D2) to make more than an educated guess. If you can provide reasons for your speculations I'd be more than happy to look at them.

[matt96]

I was here at midnight EDT (2 hours to deadline) but I ended up going to sleep thinking that Carlington had given up as 3 1/2 hours with no indication of an incoming post doesn't quite fit my idea of ASAP.

[moody7277]

First off, voting analysis is not likely to be as fruitful as I figured. No big wagon that scum could have gotten behind that would narrow a list for us to look at. The most suspicious thing is Sabrar being the deciding vote on lynching a townie, but that is meh at best.

Secondly, I'm comfortable enough in my read on Madge based on what I saw D1 and her latest that I am declaring her town as far as any further of my analyses go. If I'm wrong, well I don't usually make it to LYLO anyway, so it probably won't hurt those of us left then.

Third, flicky requesting a replacement is a bit awkward for me since I was voting for him D1 and haven't seen anything that would not make me vote him again D2. Tradition says that I should hold off until his replacement has had time to post content, so this is probably a good time to look for scum #2.

[Sabrar]

Secondly, I'm comfortable enough in my read on Madge based on what I saw D1 and her latest that I am declaring her town as far as any further of my analyses go. If I'm wrong, well I don't usually make it to LYLO anyway, so it probably won't hurt those of us left then.

I think your logic is very wrong here. In case Madge is scum she'll want to leave you alive after that statement because she can count on your help to mislynch someone else.

[Sabrar]

@mpolo: Could we get an extension please? With only a day left until deadline flicky's replacement will have a very small window to participate.

[adnapemit]

For thoughts more in line with scum hunting, I was considering writing up a post detailing my thoughts on who each other players scum buddy would most likely be if they were scum, does this seem like a good idea or will 2/3rds of it being speculation about a situation we are not in create more wine than it is worth?

If you can then do so. I any posts analyzing players to be useful. Posts on possible scenarios and claiming in a vanilla game, not so useful.

Secondly, I'm comfortable enough in my read on Madge based on what I saw D1 and her latest that I am declaring her town as far as any further of my analyses go

That's a bit more than I'd declare. I'm still thinking Madge is pretty townie. So either both of you are town or this is a pretty poor play by scum.

Unlike the people who posted reads lists before me, I was a bit more willing to not hold what felt like defensive/passive play (reasonable given the relative lack of content up to that point, although I didn't feel like you were doing anything to alleviate that.) against you.

Why not? I would but I also wouldn't just copy what other said but I'd definitely look into it and consider it a possibility. Of course you aren't me and if that is how you want to consider things then that is OK too. However in your reply you specified a "relative lack of content up to that point". Have I increased my content since then since then?

I currently think feel like there are 5 options for scum team.
(Most likely to least likely)
Matt and Sabrar- Both voted for Carlington.
Matt and Moody- first two to vote for the most voted players(flicky voted for me between their two posts but he was the only one to vote me).
Sabrar and flicky- Sabrar voted for Carlington over flicky.
Madge and Moody-Moody has strong town opinion of Madge.
Dimochka and flicky- I feel like I haven't seen enough post from either to properly judge.


Vote:matt96

[Sabrar]

Interesting...

Matt and Sabrar- Both voted for Carlington.

I think that is an oversimplified and faulty reasoning because not everybody who votes for Town is scum.

Matt and Moody- first two to vote for the most voted players(flicky voted for me between their two posts but he was the only one to vote me).

I don't see any connection between the two besides their read-list. moody put matt as his second most scummiest with only a neutral read, giving him reason to back out later from voting him. matt put moody as 'leaning town' with only having a second look if Carlington turned out to be scum which he might have known wouldn't happen.
I think the possibility is there, though I would assume that a scum-team would at least react to each other in some way.

Sabrar and flicky- Sabrar voted for Carlington over flicky.

This is logical.

Madge and Moody-Moody has strong town opinion of Madge.

I've put my scumbuddy as my most townie read once previously but that was only after others have done so as well (Alternating 9P). I would never make such a play in itself so it's hard for me to imagine this possibility but as everyone's playstyle is different it could be possible.

Dimochka and flicky- I feel like I haven't seen enough post from either to properly judge.

I agree with what you say as your reason, however that doesn't mean in my opinion that they are scum together.

My main problem with your list that in 3 out of the 5 cases you are basically saying that both scum behave in the same way and that's why they constitute a team.

[adnapemit]

My main problem with your list that in 3 out of the 5 cases you are basically saying that both scum behave in the same way and that's why they constitute a team.

I may have oversimplified my reasoning a lot, it's not so much that they behave the same way but that their posts work well together in context.

I think that is an oversimplified and faulty reasoning because not everybody who votes for Town is scum

Indeed. If flicky is town then there could be town players voted for him, if matt is town then I(town) voted for him. But it is definitely a possibility that you are both scum. With a town vote(SirGabriels) it's easier to make an extra vote look less suspicious.

I think the possibility is there, though I would assume that a scum-team would at least react to each other in some way.

Not really. As you said, a neutral read would make it easier to change opinions if necessary.

[dimochka]

@Mpolo: I second the request for an extension, I had a lot of things going on and sadly couldn't pay attention to the game. After my doctor's appt in 2 hours I'll basically be home doing nothing, but still would be great to get a couple more days.

[Sabrar]

Without an extension this will be a flustercuck as 4 players have very little content D2, 2 of whom didn't vote D1 while the other 2 voted for someone who is still alive so we won't even have that information.
I will be online during the original deadline should extension not be granted. If nothing changes my vote will be probably on matt due to my earlier vote analysis and because I simply can't decide which of the 'lurkers' to choose instead (using it as technical term only, obviously IRL is priority).

[Sabrar]

Vote: matt96

[mpolo]

24 hour extension granted. SDK will be replacing flicky.