FAC668 - Game Over

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mpolo
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FAC668 - Game Over

Postby mpolo » Mon Jul 11, 2016 4:52 pm UTC

As dawn breaks upon the sleepy town of Xkcdia, a horrible surprise awaits the denizens. Their beloved mayor, Mpolo, has been savagely murdered, his mutilated body left on the town square. With no (or almost no) forces of order left in the town, mob rule takes over, and the citizens decide to clean up the town one lynching at a time.

Setup Information:

Spoiler:
The game setup has been chosen randomly from this list:

Either:
A) 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Doctor, 5 Townies
B) 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Doctor, 5 Townies
C) 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 6 Townies
D) 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 6 Townies
E) 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Doctor, 6 Townies
F) 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Doctor, 6 Townies
G) 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 7 Townies
H) 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Townies

A Mafia Roleblocker may perform his roleblock even if he is the only surviving Mafia member. Mafia can communicate only at night.

In case of tied voting, where not all players have voted, I will consult the list of coin tosses below, Heads lynches the first player in alphabetical order, Tails the second.

TAILS HEADS TAILS TAILS TAILS HEADS TAILS HEADS TAILS HEADS TAILS


Rules (mercilessly stolen from Snark):

Spoiler:
[spoiler]Voting rules:
  1. Votes and questions must be posted in bold and on a new line, like this:

    Vote: Snark

    You must unvote to change votes, in bold and on a new line, like this:

    Unvote
    Vote: Snark

  2. When someone gains a majority of the votes, they are automatically lynched, and daytime automatically ends whether or not the mod is online to declare day-end. Posting after the hammer vote is not allowed, even if the hammer-vote was accidental.
  3. If deadline is reached and no player has a majority of the votes, then the person with the most votes is lynched. If the votals are tied, then random.org will randomly select one of the tied players to be lynched UNLESS all players are voting and exactly 2 players have votes placed on them. In that special case, there will be no lynch. If you don't understand this, please ask for clarification. See Setup rules for the pregenerated random.org results.
  4. You can vote to "NL" (no lynch). If "NL" gets the majority of the votes (or wins a tied votal), no one will be lynched.

Posting rules:
  1. No posting in this thread unless you are playing in it.
  2. No talking about this game except in this thread or in an appropriately titled spoiler in the discussion thread.
  3. No editing your posts. For any reason. At any time.
  4. Do not lurk!
  5. You may post in thread during the day phase but not the twilight phase. If the deadline for a day passes, then it is automatically night, whether or not the mod has had time to make a day-end post.
  6. You may not quote directly from your role PM or any other PMs from the mod or other players. Paraphrasing is fine.

Death rules:
  1. You’re alive until the mod tells you that you're dead, by PM or in thread.
  2. Once you die, you may no longer post in this thread, but you may read spoilers in the discussion thread. That is your consolation prize.

Private Message rules:
  1. You can ask the mod questions by PM if you'd rather not ask in thread.
  2. No PMing other players concerning this game unless your role specifically allows it and you CC the mod in every communication.


Players:
1. adnapemit - Killed N2, Doctor
2. Sabrar - Lynched D3, Mafia Goon
3. flicky1991 - SDK - Killed N3, Vanilla Town
4. Carlington – Lynched D1, Sane Cop
5. moody7277 - Lynched D4, Mafia Goon
6. SirGabriel - Killed N1, Vanilla Town
7. matt96 - Lynched D2, Vanilla Town
8. dimochka
9. Madge

Role PMS are going out. Please confirm in thread so we can get on with the day.
Last edited by mpolo on Wed Aug 03, 2016 7:17 am UTC, edited 9 times in total.
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Sabrar
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:02 pm UTC

Confirm.

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matt96
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby matt96 » Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:07 pm UTC

Confirm, also what happens if three players are at tied votes? Is the third one in alphabetical order safe?

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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby dimochka » Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:08 pm UTC

confirm.

I suggest if more than 2 players are tied, everyone dies, and it's a mod win.
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mpolo
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby mpolo » Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:09 pm UTC

matt96 wrote:Confirm, also what happens if three players are at tied votes? Is the third one in alphabetical order safe?


Should this happen, then I'll use random.org directly (oooh hidden mechanics!) Or we can go with dimochka's rule. If four people are tied, then I definitely win.
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:19 pm UTC

Confirming that I'm here, I've read my PM, and I've read the rules which were a little too mercilessly stolen from Pen Pal Mafia:
mpolo wrote:Private Message rules:
  1. You can ask the mod questions by PM if you'd rather not ask in thread.
  2. No PMing other players concerning this game unless your role specifically allows it and you CC the mod in every communication. PMing your Pen Pal is allowed in this game - make sure you CC the mod.

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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:28 pm UTC

Well, pm-ing your Pen Pal is still allowed in this game, too bad you don't have any. :D

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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby dimochka » Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:40 pm UTC

Spoiler Alert: Sabrar is my secret pen pal.
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Jul 11, 2016 6:02 pm UTC

Confirming.
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 11, 2016 6:15 pm UTC

scum!dimochka confirmed, luckily I got Madge again. Hi there! :wink:

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mpolo
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby mpolo » Mon Jul 11, 2016 6:28 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:Confirming that I'm here, I've read my PM, and I've read the rules which were a little too mercilessly stolen from Pen Pal Mafia:
mpolo wrote:Private Message rules:
  1. You can ask the mod questions by PM if you'd rather not ask in thread.
  2. No PMing other players concerning this game unless your role specifically allows it and you CC the mod in every communication. PMing your Pen Pal is allowed in this game - make sure you CC the mod.


Fixed. Thanks.
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby moody7277 » Mon Jul 11, 2016 6:58 pm UTC

Confirming.

Please feel free to correct me on this:

Totally new: matt96
relatively new: flicky, adnapemit

I know that Sabrar has been in a few games, but I think the last one was the first game he and I were both in.

Everyone else I am more familiar with. Also, if Madge survives N1, I will be voting her so hard.
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby dimochka » Mon Jul 11, 2016 7:17 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Totally new: matt96

If I recall correctly, matt is not new. He just hasn't played in a long while. I think he was actively playing when I just joined.
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jul 11, 2016 7:29 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:I know that Sabrar has been in a few games, but I think the last one was the first game he and I were both in.

We also played in Smalltown and Secret Santa together but that was waaay back in 2015. :)

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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby adnapemit » Mon Jul 11, 2016 10:22 pm UTC

Confirming.
moody7277 wrote:relatively new: flicky, adnapemit

I've played more than 5 games i think. Am i still new? :P
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby Madge » Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:18 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Also, if Madge survives N1, I will be voting her so hard.


Hey, at least you're guaranteed I'm not SK this time!!!!

Also, I hate D1, I hate mpolo for asking me to play instead of replace so I have to deal with D1, don't say I didn't warn you all /s

but no seriously LET'S GET THIS GOING ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby Carlington » Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:42 am UTC

Confirm
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby matt96 » Tue Jul 12, 2016 4:15 am UTC

dimochka wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Totally new: matt96

If I recall correctly, matt is not new. He just hasn't played in a long while. I think he was actively playing when I just joined.

I've played in a good number of games so far, starting with the first PyPoke, however I would attribute basically all of my successes to luck, especially Avengers and Firefly, so make of that what you will.

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Re: FAC688 - Day One

Postby mpolo » Tue Jul 12, 2016 6:46 am UTC

As the town-dwellers gathered on the square to clean up the grisly sight, one of them cried out "It must be Silas Mathison! I didn't see him at all last evening!" "No, Silas was in the bar until at least 3 am, and he wasn't in any condition to do something like this when he left," responded the trusty barman. "Then we'll just have to find somebody and STRING HIM UP!" shouted the slightly unstable kindergarten teacher, Miss Wickham.

Day One is beginning. Deadline: Sunday Morning (in Europe). 5 to hammer.
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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby Madge » Tue Jul 12, 2016 6:50 am UTC

Vote: Sabrar

Now who's going to get lynched first, huh????
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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 12, 2016 6:54 am UTC

Good morning everyone! So existence of Cop, Doctor and Roleblocker are all independent of each other and we can derive no information about the setup by the reveal of one or another? That's unfortunate but the explanation on the page linked by our mod seems reasonable. Anybody have any ideas what to talk about instead?

Vote: dimochka

He lied about his penpal, clearly scum.

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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 12, 2016 6:55 am UTC

EBWOP: Oh me yarm, ninja-d.

Unvote
Vote: Madge


I see your challenge and accept it. :evil:

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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby Madge » Tue Jul 12, 2016 7:00 am UTC

One of us is going to be cursed to only experience D1 :twisted:
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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby Carlington » Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:55 am UTC

matt96 wrote:I would attribute basically all of my successes to luck, especially Avengers and Firefly, so make of that what you will.

I'll tell you what I make of it! Faux-humility, trying to downplay your Mafia skills so that we townies won't view you as a threat and you can slip under the radar! Well, I for one won't buy it!

Vote: matt96
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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:04 am UTC

Flicky seems oddly quiet today.

Vote: flicky1991

Sabrar wrote:Anybody have any ideas what to talk about instead?

We could talk about whether and under what circumstances cop and doctor should claim D2. My initial thought is that the doctor's life is more valuable than any information he might have, given that we have no watcher/tracker, and likewise the cop's life is more valuable than the information he gets from a town result or from being roleblocked, so unless a power role is in danger of being lynched, the only one who should claim is a cop who got a scum result.

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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby adnapemit » Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:17 am UTC

Aww I was going to vote flicky.

Vote: SirGabriel
SirGabriel wrote:so unless a power role is in danger of being lynched, the only one who should claim is a cop who got a scum result.

That's seems right. No claim means no cop or a town result, assuming that the cop lives to d3 (which will be more likely since scum doesn't know they are a cop) then the results they give will be can be used more effectively then.
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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:33 am UTC

I would have 1 addendum to the above: if we manage to lynch the Roleblocker D1 AND there is no death N1 then I think Cop should claim because then we can play Follow the Cop without any interference from scum. I doubt scum would give up N1 kill just on the 25% chance that there's a Cop but no Doctor.
In fact in the above case it might be good for the Doctor to claim as well, as Doctor + protected player + Cop + investigated player confirmed as Town would be almost game over. The only issue with the latter is if those players coincide in some form (worst case scenario is if Doc protected Cop who investigated Doc) so that is not as clear-cut as the the former.

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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:37 am UTC

SirGabriel wrote:We could talk about whether and under what circumstances cop and doctor should claim D2.
Not sure why a doctor would ever claim if it wasn't to prevent themself getting lynched.

Ninja'd by Sabrar but yeah, I guess if we were that lucky it would make more sense.

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Re: Previously Undetermined Vanilla Variant - Pregame

Postby matt96 » Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:23 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:
matt96 wrote:I would attribute basically all of my successes to luck, especially Avengers and Firefly, so make of that what you will.

I'll tell you what I make of it! Faux-humility, trying to downplay your Mafia skills so that we townies won't view you as a threat and you can slip under the radar! Well, I for one won't buy it!

Vote: matt96

But seriously, it is kind of hard to lose as a cult leader with a role block and a vote buy after recruiting another cult leader night 1, and I was lynched as a survivor, but for flavor reasons the player lynched was still technically alive (but sedated) until the morning after, and the last remaining scum died during the night, not to mention the large werewolf game where I only survived to the end because no one believed I had a Vig and didn't use it until the very end.

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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby matt96 » Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:42 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I would have 1 addendum to the above: if we manage to lynch the Roleblocker D1 AND there is no death N1 then I think Cop should claim because then we can play Follow the Cop without any interference from scum. I doubt scum would give up N1 kill just on the 25% chance that there's a Cop but no Doctor.
In fact in the above case it might be good for the Doctor to claim as well, as Doctor + protected player + Cop + investigated player confirmed as Town would be almost game over. The only issue with the latter is if those players coincide in some form (worst case scenario is if Doc protected Cop who investigated Doc) so that is not as clear-cut as the the former.

On the other hand, what if scum withhold the kill on the basis of being high enough up everyone else's townieness lists to have a reasonable expectation of being the protected player, and losing out on a single night kill isn't too much for scum to deal with, as it puts us on track for ending up at MYLO, with the exception of getting another night without a night kill or no lynching one of the days. I'm sure given enough time I could think of a couple other strategies in which it could make sense for scum to not use their night kill, but I think I've demonstrated my point that even if there is no night kill, it is only strong evidence in favor of there being a doctor rather than outright confirming it.

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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:53 pm UTC

Putting aside all other considerations no kill gives Cop an additional investigation and that is a huge disadvantage when your scum-buddy is already dead. I can also go into details and provide a case-by-case analysis if needed but to me it's clear that with the current setup withholding the kill is rarely the right play for scum and never on N1.

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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby matt96 » Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:01 pm UTC

Would you mind sharing the case by case? I'm having a difficult time thinking of any strategy that doesn't require getting lucky with the set up and any power usages that may or may not exist.

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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby moody7277 » Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:17 pm UTC

Re my pregame post, I was just figuring who did and didn't have meta with me so I had a starting place for looking at behavior. Random voting well under way I see, so in order to make a complete list I'll

Vote: Carlington

surprised I hadn't already been picked.

So, only half the time do we have to worry about a RB to mess up power roles. I think the following claim rules should pertain:

cop with a scum investigation
doc with a successful protection iff the protected person is about to be lynched
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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:48 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:doc with a successful protection iff the protected person is about to be lynched

But is it really worth revealing the doctor to possibly prevent a mislynch?

Also, just to be clear:

Can the doctor protect himself?

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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 12, 2016 3:12 pm UTC

matt96 wrote:Would you mind sharing the case by case?

So assume we lynch the Mafia Roleblocker D1 and N1 the remaining scum withholds the kill. Assume further that Cop claims D2 with a Town result on someone. Assume Doctor (if exists) will always protect Cop from here on. Scum basically has 2 options: try to kill the Cop or kill confirmed Vanilla Townies only (N2 kill N1 investigation target, N3 kill N2 investigation target and so on). Second option is risky as it leaves the Cop alive and allows him to find the scum. First option loses almost instantly if Doc exists as there will be no death N2, leaving 1 scum among 7 players, at least 3 of those are confirmed Town (Cop + 2 investigations) and possibly 4 if Doctor was not investigated. In that case Doctor simply claims, counterclaim not possible, 4-player townie-block among 7 players always wins.
Summary: scum is in very bad shape, has to gamble that Doctor does not exist and kill Cop N2. D3 6 players are alive, setup is known, 1 player confirmed Town. No Lynch will not provide any bonuses (apart from additional time to scum-hunt) as confirmed Townie obviously dies next.
Conclusion: close to 50% chance of assured Town win, in the other 50% scum hasn't gained anything by trying to deceive.
Note: theoretically there is a possibility of scum fake-claiming Cop D2 but this is again very risky as it basically gambles on there being no real Cop. Fake-claims in this setup are very hard to evaluate, plus I'm not sure analyzing them now would be more beneficial to us than to scum so I'm not going to go there just yet.

This the main reason why I advocated a Cop-claim in this specific instance. Of course for this to happen we have to get a bit lucky, so it might be a moot point anyway.

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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby mpolo » Tue Jul 12, 2016 3:21 pm UTC

Self-targeting is not allowed.
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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby moody7277 » Tue Jul 12, 2016 3:36 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
moody7277 wrote:doc with a successful protection iff the protected person is about to be lynched

But is it really worth revealing the doctor to possibly prevent a mislynch?


Two confirmed townies on D3 when we'd be down to six people, especially if we'd been unlucky in lynching previously, is a pretty solid foundation for a town win.
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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 12, 2016 3:40 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:But is it really worth revealing the doctor to possibly prevent a mislynch?

Hard to say, depends on circumstances. Definitely yes in LYLO. Possibly so if say 5 players remain with only 1 scum. That way Doctor reveal gives us 2 confirmed Townies, we get 2 chances to lynch correctly out of the remaining 3 players.
As a side-note: all PR claims are beneficial in refusing scum fake-claim opportunities later, though this should not be primary concern.
Now the harder question is: should Doctor claim D2 if we're about to mislynch? I would say no, as a) there might be a possibility that matt mentioned (scum withholding the kill hoping Doc would clear them) and b) Doctor could be useful in protecting the Cop later.
Summary: no general answer, have to consider specific situation when it arrives.

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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jul 12, 2016 3:43 pm UTC

EBWOP: Ninja-d again.

6 players with 2 scum remaining is basically MYLO so Doctor should probably claim there as well if mislynch is threatened.

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Re: FAC668 - Day One

Postby dimochka » Wed Jul 13, 2016 1:51 am UTC

ok first of all IGMEOY on Sabrar for voting for me. And warning of future IGMEOYs on anyone who votes for me.
Also some much needed RVS:

Vote Carlington
for being the only player not yet voted for. Scum hiding in the shadows obviously.

And if you weren't sure, I'm not a PGO.
--------
OK now let's try to get some actual content in D1, which I know is something Madge particularly enjoys

1. if you are a power role and someone falseclaims your role, you should immediately claim. Yes, it's a shitty 1:1 exchange, but following scum who is falseclaiming is probably an even worse idea.
2. I think discussing what will happen IF we lynch the roleblocker and then IF there is no kill is (a) premature and (b) gives scum the opportunity to choose their strategy and wastes time while potentially making some people look active and contributing. Yes, it's probably optimal for scum to try for a kill N1 no matter what, but then again in several of the previous games we've had anti-town killing roles withholding their actions, which confused people quite a bit. I can see Sabrar's argument and I'd be willing to consider it come d2 if there is a roleblocker (50% chance), if we lynch the roleblocker (11.1% chance), and if there is no kill overnight (i'll assume that this is due to doctor, and I don't even know the probability of that at this point, but it's pretty low). Obviously mafia is about a lot more than probability, but I just don't think this is a scenario we're likely to end up in.

Now here's something i am not sure about. If a cop get "no result" overnight or a doctor fails his save (ie they were roleblocked), should they claim at any point? I don't think D2 makes sense to claim, but it may be important for us to know this at a certain point.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".


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